Opening (IRA): SPX Oct 18th -5590P/Nov 15th 5590P Calendar... for a 30.15 debit.
Comments: Opening a calendar here at or near ATH's and in (fairly) low IV.
Selling the front month 40 delta put and buying the back month same strike put. I'm indicating that the setup is bearish, but it's starting as basically neutral from a delta standpoint with the metrics being .08 long delta/13.22 theta, but will benefit from movement into the put strikes, as well as any accompanying IV expansion that occurs.
Peak profitability of this setup generally occurs when the stock price falls to the strikes near the expiration of the short option, but calculating the max profit is impossible due to the expiration of the short put leg before the long put leg coupled with any rolls of the short put that might be undertaken to reduce cost basis of the setup. Conversely, max loss starts out as what you paid to get filled for the setup, but you'll generally have a few rolling opportunities of the short put to reduce cost basis further in the event that it doesn't hit your take profit before the short put reaches expiration.
Here, I'll look to money/take/run at 10% of what I put it on for and look to roll out the front month on approaching worthless to the following week to reduce cost basis in the setup.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Yield Curve De-Inverting: A Bearish September IndicatorFlying under the radar for much of this month is the spread between the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year note. The gap is now just five basis points, having traded at negative 0.5ppt as recently as June 25. As we enter September, notoriously the worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500, if we see short rates continue to fall while the 10-year holds steady, I assert that it would be a bearish indicator for the S&P 500.
Here’s how it might play out: if we see a weak payroll report on Friday, September 6, then chances are bad news will be seen as bad news, resulting in a flight to safety in the Treasury market. Of course, intermediate-term notes could see significant upside pressure, leading to a drop in the 10-year. The next key report following the August NFP update is the CPI report later in September. After today’s in-line PCE numbers, there should be a firm beat on where inflation stands.
Now that earnings season is over, the focus will turn back to the macro. Considering that the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remains sharply in the red, we need to see better economic data to help support the growth narrative looking ahead. Sure, the Q2 second update on US real GDP growth was solid, and the Q3 tracking numbers are sanguine, but the market will be forward-looking.
So, keep your eye on the 2s10s spread—a yield curve disinversion during this spooky seasonal stretch could bring about volatility.
SPX forming a top?US500 - 24h expiry
Levels above 5630 continue to attract sellers.
The 161.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 5544 from 5650 to 5585.
Bespoke support is located at 5540.
Selling spikes offers good risk/reward.
Economic figures could adversley affect the short term technical picture.
We look to Sell at 5630 (stop at 5665)
Our profit targets will be 5540 and 5470
Resistance: 5630 / 5650 / 5680
Support: 5545 / 5540 / 5470
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Fed’s Preferred Inflation Indicator TomorrowTomorrow’s macroeconomic calendar is set for a major event! 📊
At 8:30 AM Eastern Time, we’ll see the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The implied move for PCE is +/- 35 points, with the estimated month-over-month core PCE at 0.2%. 📈
Stay tuned for market reactions and how it could impact the broader indices!
SP:SPX AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ #Finance #Investing #MarketWatch #EconomicData #Inflation #PCE #Fed #StockMarket #FinancialNews
S&P500 v USD since 2008. Cheap dollar guarantees stock expansionThis is a cross chart analysis between the S&P500 index (SPX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Ahead of widely anticipated Fed rate cut next month, it is useful to see how the Dollar has impacted from its perspective the stock market on a multi-year basis.
As you can see, the DXY has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom. At the moment it is under the Resistance of the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) and a rate cut should apply even stronger selling pressure and keep it under. There is still some wayt to go until it hits the bottom of the Channel Up again.
We believe that the stock market is at the point where it finishes the recovery phase (blue Arc) and will enter the expansion phase (green Channel Up), at the beginning of next year. As a result, a rate cut and as a matter of fact a series of rate cuts by the Fed, will do wonders on S&P500, giving investors steady long-term opportunities to buy low and sell high within a strictured Channel.
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ES/SPX levels and targets Aug 29thComplete round trip for ES after the fail and reclaim idea of 5572. As I mentioned, 5654-5585 is the range with 5630 as the magnet. We got a classic failed breakdown of this zone after Nvidia earnings printed. And now we are back at 5630 for the 20th test.
As of now: We're coiling for a breakout. 5611-15 is the key support. As long as it holds, 5642 and 5650-54 are in play. Watch for a dip below 5611.
S&P 500 Set for Downward Trend as Investors Eye Economic DataStocks Rise Before the Open as Investors Await U.S. Economic Data
S&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price recently Rejected its support zone and has subsequently rebounded, indicating a potential retest.
The current outlook suggests that as long as the price remains below 5620, a bearish trend is likely to develop, to 5584. A break below this level could trigger a more substantial bearish move.
Conversely, if the price stabilizes above 5620, it may rise to 5644, and sustaining above 5644 could lead to a move towards an all-time high (ATH).
Today's GDP data release is anticipated to have a negative impact on the indices if the figures do not meet expectations.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5620
Resistance Levels: 5644, 5675, 5709
Support Levels: 5584, 5525, 5491
Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is likely to fluctuate between 5644 and 5525.
Trend: Downward Movement
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-27 - Inside Breakaway PatternThe SPY continues to slide into a sideways melt-up type of trend. Today's Inside Breakaway pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to move away from this consolidation range.
Although I don't expect a huge breakaway today, I do expect the SPY to attempt to move up into the 563+ area, setting up for a bigger move on Thursday and a pullback on Friday.
Gold is pulling back reasonably hard. The 2530-2535 level would be an excellent area to consider buying or adding to any open position. The 2510-2515 level is the Make-Or-Break level for Gold (that would also be our stop level).
I still believe Gold will make another move higher - but I don't think Gold will build enough momentum to rally out of the current range until next week.
Bitcoin has pulled back into the APEX range (see the chart). We need to see it hold up near this Apex range - or it could risk falling below $57k again.
Overall, I see all of these charts (SPY/QQQ/Gold/Bitcoin) stalling and attempting to base ahead of next week. Next week, I believe prices will be more volatile and try to trend upward.
As I've been warning, this week, the markets needed to pause a bit. Now is the perfect time to position yourself for the next big move.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P500 Why the volatility shouldn't scare you.Five months ago (March 21, see chart below), we published a comparison analysis on the S&P500 index (SPX), warning of a medium-term correction but at the same time setting a long-term 6500 Target:
As you can see, the fractal comparison of March 2024 with March 2017 worked very well and this is why the recent July - August correction shouldn't scare you. The 2022 - 2024 sequence continues to replicate to a solid degree the 2015 - 2017 period, which after holding both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and testing and bouncing on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, it rallied towards the 3.0 Fib.
Check also how similar the 1W RSI sequences are within the two fractals. At the moment we are just past the RSI Double Bottom formation (August 14 2017 and August 05 2024 respectively), which should initiate a rally that will peak deep into the overbought zone in Q1 2025.
As a result, our long-term Target of 6500 is intact, and as the title says, the volatility shouldn't scare you and make you diverge from the long-term goal and perspective.
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Yield curve Before Hyperinflation (QE US BONDS) BTC & SPY
The global bond market is what dictates the liquidity to stocks, its what dictates the world its what starts wars and its what ends wars.
Currently I see many post focused on "recession" "market crash" when the giant elephant in the room is the global bond market and the US reserve dollar that is currently in danger.
Why must we start foreign sanctions and battles with a country beginning with R? its very simple. There's a fight for the dollars survival. Covid 19 pushed the FRED past the point of no return and there is no going back to the structured system that was already falling apart.
Treasury Interest is now getting at dangerous levels of unpayable amounts, Government Debt is rising by the trillions in a parabolic move that is getting steeper by the month.
What has to happen?
The FRED will force the US power to globally cut rates in all major economies while the FRED also has to start cutting back to zero while halting the fall of the DXY
(forcing military action on other countries who do not cut rates and hinder their local currency)
The last time in history something like this has happened was during the 1927-1931 period of discount rate blunders.
US CPI is indicating we have entered a new stage of no turning back and this is the danger of printing money, QE will be forced in the nature of Yield Curve Control and the excess liquidity and currency will debase the markets violently in an upward notion, following this people will end up panicking being on the sidelines entering the market with heavy leverage and borrowed funds at lower rates.
This is a type of scenario that would collapse Rome, Would end the Soviet Union. Expect dangerous policies, socialist developments, anti ownership, sparks of new wars.
Only when you price this event in something like Bitcoin you can then re evaluate how much money will have to be printed to keep up this momentum without causing a depression with unemployment rates sky rocking and the Government defaulting on the debt.
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉
SELL IT!
The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn.
• December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn.
When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Yeah I spare you your time. Markets have no idea where to go right now but I think Nvidia earnings can move it for good. Absolutely no opinion on those earnings and how market will react. I don’t like to gamble on such things.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: I won’t conjure much words today for a market inside a 50 point triangle. Clear support and resistance visible. Either scalp it to both sides or wait for the breakout. No opinion on which side the breakout will happen. Both sides have arguments and I won’t try to guess it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5600 - 5670
bull case: Bulls want to get above 5670 and to make the bears give up so they can print a new ath or at least 5700 again. I do think many bulls will give up below 5550 but that’s far away for now. Currently no more magic to it.
Invalidation is below 5580.
bear case: Bears coming through with selling spikes rather than consecutive bear bars or sustained selling. I think many stops will be around 5675-5680 and market would probably print 5700 fast then. If Nvidia misses and market pukes, below 5580 I will heavily favor the bears to reverse the madness.
Invalidation is above 5675.
short term: Neutral as it gets.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Buying the bear trap at the open anywhere below 5619. Second best was any long around 5628 since market is trying hard to show you this is support for now. Selling 5649 was also decent. Trading range with clear support and resistance. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
S&P500 Consolidation Phase Towards The UptrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5540 zone, SPX is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5540 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
SPX TOP History Repeats Itself AgainHello everyone,
We may be entering a very powerful recession. We get a good crash about every 100 years and history is repeating itself again. We went into the great depression during the 1929s and the stock market did not reach it's highs again for the next 37 years. We find ourselves in the same situations eerily similar to 1929.
S&P bulls are strong; new historical high?Last week was marked by an increase in selling pressure, which, despite all efforts, has not had a significant impact. As we can see on the daily chart, the stairstep pattern remained intact—even a powerful attack on Thursday was unable to break the previous day's low. The bulls maintained control, leading to a small rally the following day (I highlighted the importance of the stairstep pattern in my previous review).
As we approach the end of the month, there are a few things to keep an eye on:
1. The price is in a weekly uptrend, which has not been seriously threatened so far. Buyers maintain long-term control over the price.
2. The daily timeframe is also under buyers' control.
3. All major S&P sectors are moving in the same direction.
Price is approaching previous major high ( 565 ), which can act as a resistance but there is no guaranty that it will hold for long. The last consolidation, which began on July 17th, was triggered more by bullish exhaustion than by strong selling at this level. This suggests that there may be little to safeguard it.
Given all the above, there is no reason to believe that market is currently under threat. For the trend to shift to the bearish side, three things must happen (from the TA perspective):
1. Daily Sellers must take down the previous day low, breaking stairstep pattern
2. Weekly Sellers must take down the previous week low ( 553.8 ), setting weekly lower high
3. Month should close red (below 552 )
Until then we’re in a bull market.
ES/SPX Levels & Targets Aug 26thOn Thursday/Friday, I called the 5588-93 buy zone with a target of 5653, and ES has hit it four times since Friday morning.
As of now: No changes—I'm still holding my runners from Friday mentioned in plan. The 5642 level, which has been tested twice but remains weak, is the key support. If we can hold above that, I’m eyeing 5672 and the 5687-90 range as potential targets. If 5642 breaks, I’ll look to sell around 5630. Full Plan for today was posted Sunday Morning
Either Stock or GoldIn every analysis I have done over the years, I have said that I hold either gold or equities. I have never been in cash other than equities. These charts explain why.
From 1884 to 1970, you could buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 0.74 gold or $14.75. So there is not much point in choosing between gold and the dollar during this period because the Bretton Woods system is still in place. But the real problem starts after 1970. After the Bretton Woods system was abolished, you can now buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 2 gold coins. Yes, the stock is rising relative to gold, but it is not in a continuous upward trend, so you can buy SP500 shares with 2 gold in 1972 or 2020. But in dollar terms, things are not so good. In 1970 you could buy SP500 for $100 and in 2020 you can buy SP500 for $3000.
Therefore, when you sell a share, going for gold instead of cash may put you at a speculative loss in the short term, but in the long term you are always on the winning side.
SPX: pivoting is “nearing”The Jackson Hole Symposium is a yearly event closely watched by the markets. The speech held by Fed Chair Powell, revealed that the Fed is “nearing” its first rate cut. Markets are now almost sure that the Fed will make such a decision at their September FOMC meeting. The US equity markets reacted positively to Powell`s rhetoric, bringing the S&P 500 to the level of 5.634. The index gained 1,45% for the week, and is nearing its all time highest level reached during July this year at the level of 5.668.
Once again tech stocks were the ones that pushed the market to the upside. Nvidia and Tesla were higher by 4% over the week. Also other stocks were finishing the week higher, supported by the investor`s expectations that the environment of increased interest rates will support the future growth of companies. Analysts from the Swiss UBS bank noted their expectations that the eroded interest rates on cash holdings will impact investors to switch their holdings back to the equity market, in expectation of higher returns. Still, it should be considered that some investors are still expecting a recession in the US.
BRIEFING Week #34: Crazy Monthly CandleHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: 53 points to a new ath is a small spike at this point. Whenever a market is this close to an obvious magnet, it’s reasonable to assume that it will get there. Will it be a big difference if the high stays below 5700 or goes above 5721? Not really. You simply can not short this and put your stop a tick above the previous ath. Bulls are in control and until bears print consecutive bear bars below 5600, it stays that way.
Quote from last week:
comment : Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up.
comment : Bears produced the first bigger bear bar after almost 10% in 10 bars. It was also the first pullback (price goes below the previous bar low) in this bull trend inside the bigger trading range. As I wrote for dax, I can not be anything but neutral going into next week since we are at previous resistance after a very climactic move up. Bulls want a new ath and bears to keep it a lower high. Volume is picking up again and bears build some decent selling pressure on Thursday + Friday. On the 4h chart you can see 5 legs up without much of pullbacks. Will find out next week how many bulls are interested in buying above 5600.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range.
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: Bulls closed the bear gap and are free to print a new ath. Bears are not doing enough to make more bulls take profits, so naturally they keep on buying any small dip and pushing it higher. Technically we have two bull trend lines pointing to higher targets above 5721 with one even going to 5900-6000. Can this happen? For sure. After this climactic down than even more climactic up, everything is possible. Is it likely? No.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. They know the market is overdue for a bigger pullback again and they will add higher, even if we print a new ath. If they can keep this a lower high and print below 5600, I do think we could see more bulls covering their longs. For now bears can mostly hope for a sideways market and stopping the advance. On the monthly chart bears produced a decent doji in July and they want this months bar closing near 5500 to not generate a good buying signal for September.
Invalidation is above 5670.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5578 and now we are at 5652. 5600 was no bigger resistance. Bulls printed a green week but bears came around and starting making the market more two sided again.
short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. I don’t think bears want July to close above 5600.
medium-long term : Can’t be too bearish after the reversal but same as dax again. Even if we do a new ath, I expect at least 5200 to be hit again this year but probably 5000.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed bear gap and added the possible 5 wave series and a potential bigger two legged correction but that is pure speculation as of now.
Stocks and BTCBTC is analysed from price 0, 12 Jan 2009. Aggregate of stock markets (IWM, SPX and IXIC) are analysed from 2009's crash. Both asset classes are normalised to gold.
Using the Elliot Wave Theory on the long-run movement of BTC and Equities the following has been determined:
1. BTC has converged to the stock market's movements
2. Equities and Cryptos have passed the Wave 5, currently finishing the Wave B corrective movement.