SPX 500 to 17,000 in 7 years.This chart represents the S&P 500, showcasing its performance over time, including quarterly data.
It captures everything.
Every recession.
Every war.
Every president.
Every variation of the monetary base as superpowers rise and fall.
Whenever I hear a bear in the stock market declare that THE TOP has been reached, and we are about to CRASH -50% to -90%
I find myself drawn to these comprehensive long term charts.
If the bulls are genuinely in control and we have merely undergone an intermediate-term correction, then the long-term bull market that commenced at the 2009 low remains robust, with many more years ahead.
The chart also illustrates that the three significant bull market phases typically last around 18-20 years following a major breakout.
And they yield a comparable number of X's.
It's all quite fascinating, if you ask me.
See you in the future!
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Weekly TF – 2025
Chart Context:
Tools Used: 3 Fibonacci Tools:
1. One **Fibonacci retracement** (from ATH to bottom)
2. Two **Trend-Based Fibonacci Extensions**
* Key Levels and Zones:
* **Support Zone** (Fib Confluence): \~4,820–5,100
* **Support Area (shallow pullback)**: \~5,500–5,600
* **Resistance & TP Zones:**
* TP1: **6,450** (Fib confluence & -61.8%)
* TP2: **6,840** (-27%)
* TP3: **7,450–7,760** (Major Confluence)
Technical Observations:
* SPX is approaching a **critical resistance** near previous ATH (\~6,128) with projected upward trajectory.
* The **green dashed path** suggests a rally continuation from current \~6,000 levels to TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840), and eventually TP3 (\~7,450–7,760), IF no major macro shock hits.
* The **purple dotted path** suggests a potential retracement first to \~5,600 (shallow correction) or deeper into \~5,120 or even 4,820 zone before continuing the bullish rally.
* The major support zone around **4,820–5,120** includes key Fib retracement levels (38.2% and 61.8%) from both extensions and historical breakout levels.
Fundamental Context:
* US economy shows **resilience** amid soft-landing narrative, though inflation remains sticky.
* The **Federal Reserve** is expected to cut rates in **Q3–Q4 2025**, boosting equity valuations.
* Liquidity expansion and dovish outlook support risk assets, including **equities and crypto**.
* However, **AI-driven tech rally** may be overstretched; a correction could follow earnings disappointments or macro surprises (e.g., jobs or CPI shocks).
Narrative Bias & Scenarios:
**Scenario 1 – Correction Before Rally (Purple Path)**
* If SPX faces macro pushback (e.g., high CPI, hawkish Fed), expect retracement to:
* 5,600 = Fib -23.6% zone
* 5,120–4,820 = Major Fib Confluence Zone
* These would act as **accumulation zones**, setting up next leg up toward TP1 and beyond.
* **Effect on Gold**: May rise temporarily due to risk-off move.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Could stall or correct, especially altcoins.
**Scenario 2 – Straight Rally (Green Path)**
* If Fed confirms cuts and macro remains soft:
* SPX breaks ATH (\~6,128)
* Hits TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840)
* Eventually reaches confluence at **TP3 (7,450–7,760)**
* **Effect on Gold**: May struggle; investor preference for equities.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Strong risk-on appetite, altseason continuation.
Indicators Used:
* 3 Fibonacci levels (retracement + 2 extensions)
* Trendlines (macro and local)
* Confluence mapping
Philosophical/Narrative Layer:
This phase of the market resembles a test of collective confidence. Equity markets nearing ATHs while monetary easing begins reflect a fragile optimism. The Fibonacci levels act as narrative checkpoints — psychological as much as mathematical. Will we rally on faith or fall for rebalancing?
Bias & Strategy Implication:
Bias: Bullish with caution
* Strategy:
* Await **confirmation breakout >6,128** for fresh long entries
* Accumulate on dips in the **5,100–5,500** zone if correction unfolds
* Use **TP1, TP2, TP3** as staged exits
Related Reference Charts:
* BTC.D Analysis – Bearish Bias:
* TOTAL:Bullish Bias
*TOTAL3 – Bullish Bias:
* US10Y Yield – Falling Bias Impact:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US10Y/45w6qkWl-US10Y-10-Year-Treasury-Yield-Weekly-TF-2025/
Regeneron Pharmaceutical's MFI implying "Trough in the making"1/ Using just this indicator " Alon" is a very dangerous game like you can blow up your
account !!!
2/Non the less, such readings accompanied by (-86%) or ( 78-%) or (-91%) draw downs
such as on the chart above has resulted in the past, in 3 occasions, in big and historical
bullish moves !!! "Generational buying " Wealth creation type of trading !!!
SPX500 – Volatile Week Ahead as Trade Talks and CPI LoomSPX500 | Overview
Fundamental Insight:
S&P 500 futures edged lower early Monday as traders brace for a high-impact week.
Key events include:
- US-China trade talks in London (Monday)
- U.S. inflation data (CPI) expected midweek (Wednesday)
Markets are cautious, awaiting clarity from both geopolitical developments and macroeconomic indicators, which could trigger strong directional moves.
Technical Outlook:
The price appears to be entering a correction phase, with the potential to drop toward 5966.
A confirmed break below 5966 may extend the bearish trend toward 5938 and 5902.
However, a break above 6030 would invalidate the bearish scenario and could trigger a bullish continuation toward 6098 and potentially a new all-time high (ATH).
Pivot Line: 6010
Support Levels: 5966, 5938, 5902
Resistance Levels: 6030, 6098
$META Short Swing - Fractal Repeat Play - Sub $600 Target@everyone 🔻 META Short Swing – Fractal Repeat Play 🔁
Entry Trigger: Week of June 10, 2025
Ticker: NASDAQ:META
Current Price: $697.71
Target Price: $593.66
Estimated Duration: ~3–4 weeks
Conviction: ★★★★★
🧠 Thesis:
This is a nearly perfect fractal repeat of META’s July 2024 top:
Identical weekly candle structure: topping wick into fib + supply zone
Weekly gap fill target lines up exactly again — same 15.5% drop
Wick gap fill = $593.66 (same confluence from 2024)
Bearish fib roadmap from 0.786 → 0.618 → 0.382
Volume and momentum exhausted on the run into $702
📉 Trade Plan:
Entry Range: $690–702 rejection zone
Stop Loss: Weekly close above $705
Primary Target: $593.66
This level completes the wick gap fill and matches 2024’s exact structure
Secondary Target (optional): $580.84 (full fib gap + demand retest)
🛠️ Options to Consider:
6/28 $650P or $640P – standard swing
7/5 $620P – for deeper move toward 0.382 and beyond
🔍 Setup Snapshot:
July 2024: -15.56% in 28 days
June 2025: Targeting -15.53% in 28 days
Same gap, same wick rejection, same fade roadmap
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Attempting Breakout Above ResistanceSPY (S&P500 ETF) price is attempting to breakout above Daily resistance levels of $594 and $597.
SPY ETF has been in an uptrend since May 2025. A Golden Cross also occured on May 19th 2025, signaling that a potential longer term bullish rally could occur.
Friday's candle closed as a Doji signaling some potential indecision after recent price volatility.
SPY price is not at any extreme level on the Daily chart.
If SPY price ever gaps up and rallies up to the $612 to $620 resistance zone, price could sell off stronger (short-term).
In June 2025, trade deal and inflation news will most likely be the catalyst for further volatility, in addition to government news announcements.
SPY Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06📈 SPY Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06
Bias: Moderately Bullish
Timeframe: 3–4 weeks
Catalysts: Strong institutional flows, trade talk optimism, solid jobs report
Trade Type: Long equity position
🧠 Model Summary Table
Model Bias Entry Stop Loss Take Profit Holding Period Confidence
DS Moderately Bullish $600.02 $595.54 $618.02 3 weeks 65%
LM Moderately Bullish $598.50 $586.70 $616–618 3–4 weeks 75%
GK Strongly Bullish $600.02 $592.00 $610.00 4 weeks 72%
GM Moderately Bullish ~$600.50 $587.50 $627.50 3–4 weeks 70%
CD Moderately Bullish $600–600.50 $585.00 $620 / $635 3–4 weeks 72%
✅ Consensus: SPY is in a bullish trend across timeframes
⚠️ Disagreements: MACD momentum and entry/pullback levels
🔍 Technical & Sentiment Summary
Trend: SPY above 10/50/200 EMAs on all models
RSI: 60–61 → bullish but not overbought
MACD: Mostly positive, DS cautious on daily histogram
Support Levels: $591.06, $595.54, $597.26
Resistance Zones: $600.83, $605.21, $610
VIX: 17.6 (declining), supports risk-on sentiment
News: Trade talk optimism and strong jobs data fueling momentum
✅ Final Trade Setup
Parameter Value
Instrument SPY
Strategy LONG
Entry Price $600.00
Stop Loss $588.00
Take Profit $625.00
Position Size 83 shares (1% risk on $100K)
Entry Timing At market open
Confidence 70%
💡 Rationale: Aligned bullish signals across timeframes, falling VIX, and strong macro sentiment favor a trend continuation move toward $625. Position sized for conservative risk management.
⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations
MACD divergence could signal near-term stall
Resistance zone at $605 may act as a cap
Macro volatility: Strong jobs could raise rate expectations
VIX Watch: A spike above 20 could reverse market trend
Exit Protocol: Consider closing if SPY closes below the 10-day EMA (~$591)
📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT
🎯 Instrument: SPY
📈 Direction: LONG
💰 Entry Price: 600.0
🛑 Stop Loss: 588.0
🎯 Take Profit: 625.0
📊 Size: 83 shares
💪 Confidence: 70%
⏰ Entry Timing: Open
RobinHood - Urgent News - Afterhours SelloffOn June 6, 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced no changes to the S&P 500 index in its quarterly rebalance, marking the first such instance since March 2022. This decision notably excluded Robinhood Markets Inc., despite speculation that it might be included due to its market capitalization exceeding $20.5 billion and recent strong performance. Following the announcement, Robinhood's stock declined over 5% in after-hours trading
The next S&P500 quarterly rebalancing is set for September 2025....perhaps the next leg higher needs to wait until them
As of June 6, market close, Robinhood's stock is trading at $74.88, with a market capitalization of approximately $36.85 billion. The company has experienced significant growth, with a 365% increase in stock price over the past 12 months and a 50% surge to start 2025. Analysts project continued revenue and earnings growth, with an average one-year price target of $51.19 per share
We issued put option alerts to our members and shorted this live stream on Friday afternoon.
SPX: chasing the 6KThe jobs data were in the spotlight of markets during the previous week. The Non-farm payrolls in May with 139K new jobs came as better than market anticipated, which supported the optimistic mood of investors. The S&P 500 managed to return to the levels modestly above the 6K level. Tech companies were again in the spotlight of investors. In this sense, the magnificent 7 drove the market to the higher grounds. In the Friday trading session, NVDA gained 1,2%, AMZN was up by 2,7%, while Tesla gained 3,7%. It should be noted that Tesla had quite a turbulent week. Its shares first dropped by 14% at the beginning of the week, after its CEO commented negatively on a current policy of the US President Trump. Certainly, this came as a surprise for markets, considering Musk's strong support for President Trump, both during the electoral campaign and his presidency.
Current optimism might be slowed down with forthcoming inflation data. Namely, a large number of economists are pointing to potential for the economic slowdown and higher inflation induced by implemented trade tariffs by the US Administration. In this sense, there is a probability that higher volatility of the index might continue in the coming period, as markets will try to understand what impact future growth and earnings will have on any new news on trade tariffs. It has been announced that further talks between China and US officials on trade tariffs will be held next week in London. This event will be closely monitored by investors.
SPX is overheated, a correction is necessary📉 Market Update: No, It Has Nothing to Do with Trump
This move has nothing to do with Trump’s dramatic announcements. The reality is simple: the MACD on the daily chart is overheated, and a healthy correction is needed — likely down to the 5,520 level — before resuming the uptrend.
Now, does it surprise anyone that Trump acts like a PR agent for his investors? He always seems to drop “bad news” at the exact moment the charts call for a pullback. My guess? They're shorting right now.
🪙 Bitcoin Stalling
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is also losing momentum, and looks like it’s in need of a short-term correction as well. This suggests a week of consolidation ahead for the whole crypto market.
But let’s be clear:
🚀 The Bull Market Is Not Over
The weekly charts remain very bullish, and this trend could last another 4–6 months. The macro bullish structure for crypto remains intact.
However, in TradFi, there are cracks:
🔻 20-year bonds sold at 5.1% — a major recession red flag
💸 Tariffs are putting pressure on global trade
📉 The entire traditional market is starting to de-risk
🔮 What to Expect
Short-term correction to ~5,518 (first bottom target)
A possible rebound after healthy consolidation
A continued uptrend in crypto unless key support breaks
I’ll publish a new update when conditions change.
📌 Follow me to stay ahead of the market. And as always: DYOR.
#CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoCorrection #BullishTrend #RecessionWarning #TradFi #Altcoins #BTC #MarketUpdate #TrumpEffect #DYOR
$SPY bearish, to break April lows?Most people are thinking that we'll see a correction that goes back to the $560 area and then from there, we'll go to new highs. They also don't think it's likely that we'll retest the lows from April and think it's nearly impossible that we'll break the lows.
However, my base case is that we will break the lows. Yes, in the past, most dips like the one in April were good buying opportunities, but the chart looks different here.
You can see that ever since April, all we've done is consolidate up into a rising wedge.
We look set to break down from that in the coming days. If we do break down and are unable to reclaim the highs, then I think my base case will become the highest probability outcome.
I think it's likely that the move down will take us to the $424- 402 levels. Let's see what happens.
All-Time Highs (3% Up) or US/China Trade Gap (4-5% Down)?It's summer time (1st week of June)
Brutally slow price action thus far, Non-Farm Payroll hits this Friday
Next week will be more US Inflation Date (CPI, PPI)
S&P and Nasdaq are only 3% (or slightly less) away from all-time highs
Melt-up momentum says it's the path of least resistance
US/China Trade Agreement Gap (that silly little Monday announcement) is 4-5% lower
Whatever we hit, there will be disappointed traders and investors - the ultimate pain trade :)
I'm not bearish, I'm ridiculously cautious as a bull and wanting to see a pullback. I can tell
because it's actually annoying watching the market grind so slow to the upside shrugging
off every bad news bite and sense of reality
The big beautiful tax bill is losing support (see Elon Musk's latest comments)
The Trump Administration has pivoted so hard the other way the market is virtually
ignoring tariff news now
Let price be your guide. I'm connecting the April 7 lows forward and if the bears cross it and price sweeps some lows, there might be some pullback potential in the cards
Plenty to watch - be patient - opportunities await. Not forcing anything for now and I'm
doing the "boring" stuff for income trading.
Thanks for watching!!!
SPX Technical Analysis – Bullish StructureSPX Technical Analysis – Bullish Structure
The overall trend of SPX appears bullish, and based on the current structure, the asset shows potential for a 20% upside, with a possible move toward the $1.25 level.
Key support zones to watch are:
$0.90, which is approximately 11% below the current price
$0.80, which is around 21% below and can be considered the main support
As long as the price holds above these key levels and the bullish trend remains intact, the outlook stays optimistic for further upward continuation.
📌 This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
📝 Follow for more updates on SPX and other assets
S&P500: Gearing up for a push to 6,100S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.611, MACD = 85.830, ADX = 19.630) as it has been trading inside a Channel Up for over a month. Right now it is halfway through the new bullish wave. We expect it to rise by at least +4.40%, same as the previous one. Stay bullish as long as the 4H MA50 holds, TP = 6,100.
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SPY New All Time Highs IncomingThe #SPY weekly chart is so bullish but don't take my word for it.
Simply look at the weekly bullish crossover that occurred between the 7 week & the 20 Week MA.
The last time this occurred was in Nov 2023 and the markets ripped 19% before having a major 3 week pullback and then another soaring continuation higher.
Bullish Intraday Patterns Everywhere!SPX had a wonderful intraday hourly chart confirmed breakout. This pattern is bullish and likely will continue higher.
The bulls tomorrow would love to confirm the daily chart breakout and will try to push for that.
SPY/SPX is holding more relative strength than the Q's & IWM which is displaying broad participation.
There are many bullish charts showing accumulation, golden crosses and bullish MA crossovers.
The DXY appears to be wanting to break down to around $97.00 which should yield more upside.
We secured profits today on SPY 594 calls & NVDA 144 calls.
We still remain net long and see the S&P 500 over $6000
Apple, XYZ, AI - are bullish setups were continuing to manage.
S&P500 Giant Inverse Head and Shoulders waiting for its breakoutThe S&P500 index (SPX) appears to be forming the Right Shoulder of a long-term Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), the pattern that made the April 07 bottom of the Tariff War correction.
Currently supported by both its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), once the overhead Resistance/ neckline breaks, we expect a +24.55% rise to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, the equivalent of the rise it made from the April bottom up until now.
The target given is 7400.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
06/02/25 Trade Journal, and Where is the Stock Market going tomo**EOD accountability report: +1176**
Sleep: 6 hours , Overall health: Health is getting better as I am getting a bit more rest, but can't seem to push past 6 hours of sleep. Might attempt to sleep earlier as i am usually heading to be around 1-2 am and waking up around 9. Also learned that I have pretty high cholesterol last week, so I plan to start implementing fiber pills into my night stack as it is essential to flooding out cholesterol.
**Should I release my daily supplement stack?**
What was my initial plan?
Bullish going into the market as we went over $5900, and looking for BTD at MOB, Flipped Bearish as we lost MOB.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
— 10:00 AM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 11:26 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal
— 2:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Sell Signal
Next day plan--> Above 5900 = Bullish, Under 5880 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Testing Resistance Trendline - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price is currently testing a resistance trendline above ($593 to $595 price levels).
SPY price in the medium-term has been uptrending since April and May 2025.
SPY price in the short-term has been consolidating sideways, and a large volume breakout or breakdown has not occurred yet.
The 12EMA (blue line) has been holding as support for 5 trading days. Resistance targets to the upside would be $598 to $600.
The grey gap and the 26EMA (purple line) are downside support targets if a rally does not occur this month ($576 to $567).
Breaking news and tariff trade deals are supposed to occur in June and July 2025.