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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P bulls amazing coming backLast week, buyers continued to surprise by maintaining the impressive rally that began on Monday, the 5th. Observing the daily chart, we can see that for 10 consecutive days, the price has been setting new highs, never falling below the previous day's low. As of today (Monday, the 19th), the bulls have retraced 80% of the last bearish wave. It's also notable that buying occurred across all major S&P sectors, not just in a few big names. Here is the current market disposition: 1. The market is in a weekly uptrend, with a new major low officially confirmed at 510 . 2. On the daily chart, we see a beautiful stairstep pattern. 3. The only technical resistance above is July’s high of 565 , but given the rally's momentum, it is likely to be surpassed. The long-term outlook is unequivocally bullish. The short-term outlook is also bullish, as long as the daily stairstep pattern remains intact. For short traders, it is advisable to refrain from trying to catch the top. The current momentum is so strong that it could easily break all technical resistances. The only situation where I would consider cautious shorting is at the daily stairstep pattern break.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
JPY, key to all other indexesJPY vs USD, key to the other index developments. As long as it holds its trendline, JPY will remain week vs the other global currencies, Japan exports will hold, carry trade arbitrages won't unwind, US bonds will not sell off (rising yields), volatility will remain contained. But if it breaks and doesn't hold the 139JPY/$, we could witness how algos start dumping US and Euro shares and bonds. Rising JPY should also affect the Nikkei 225, retaking the path to 30k
Short
by j_arrieta
2
S&P500 Futures Gain as Risk-On Sentiment Fuels Best Week of 2024S&P 500 Futures Rise After Risk-On Sentiment Drives Best Week of 2024 Equities fluctuated between gains and losses on Friday but ultimately ended higher, with the S&P 500 achieving a 3.9% weekly gain. The risk-on sentiment last week propelled the broad index to its strongest performance of 2024, with momentum still targeting 5,584 and 5,620, provided it stabilizes above 5,525. Bullish Scenario: As long as trades above 5525, there will be a bullish trend toward 5584 and 5620 Bearish Scenario: stability under 5525 by closing 4h candle means will support falling to get 5491 and 5460 Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5525 - Resistance Levels: 5584, 5620, 5670 - Support Levels: 5491, 5460, 5409 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5525 and 5620. Tendency: Bullish momentum
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Using the iShares TIP Bond ETF to predict the S&P price reversalThe iShares TIP Bond ETF serves as an inflation-protected investment by adjusting its principal based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This makes it a valuable tool for macroeconomic analysis, as it provides insight into how inflation expectations are being priced into the market which gives early reversal signs when observing the MS on the weekly chart. As illustrated in the accompanying chart, when the ETF’s value (i.e., the inflation-adjusted principal) rises, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin often exhibit upward momentum, while the ETF’s yield typically declines. This inverse relationship occurs because the ETF becomes more appealing when riskier assets are expected to under perform, especially during periods of rising inflation. Investors should consider the ETF’s price adjustments in response to CPI data. For example, if CPI begins to decline and interest rates peak, the ETF may become less attractive, prompting investors to shift toward high-cap, risk-on assets in equities and potentially Bitcoin. It is also important to note that the price of this ETF can rise due to increased demand, regardless of inflation expectations. Therefore, a comprehensive, contextual understanding of market cycles is essential when evaluating its position in a broader investment strategy.
SP:SPXLong
by Ramiknfr
2
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday. comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. current market cycle: Trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: From panic to euphoria. Good times. Bulls want a close of the bear gap to 5650 now and if they manage that, no reason we can’t print a new ath. More likely though is that we stay below 5600 and go much more sideways and wait for a new impulse. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are gone it seems. Best they can hope for now is to stay below 5600 and make the market go sideways. If big sellers appear again, first target would be 5500 and then a close below daily ema but that is very low probability as of now. No bigger update this week since parallels to dax are big and I do think it’s best to be neutral here and wait for a pullback and see where that goes. Invalidation is above 5650. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there. → Last Sunday we traded 5370 and now we are at 5578. My upper targets were 5450 and bulls just melted it. Part of outlook was ok because you don’t get bearish at climactic selling lows but this reversal is not anything that is likely to happen after such selling. short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. medium-long term: Same as dax. I wait and let market give more info. Right now it’s max confusion. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed all but the small bear gap.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX: the best week in 2024Posted inflation data for the US, which were below market expectations, increased optimism among market participants that the Fed will make its first move on the rate cuts in September this year. This was the major fuel for the significant increase in the value of the S&P 500 index during the week, which had its best performance week during 2024. The index started the week at the level of 5.341 and reached the highest level on Friday's trading session of 5.554. The index is currently only 2% lower from it's all time highest level, reached in July this year. Aside from inflation, the Retail Sales in July were 1% higher on a monthly basis, which was above market estimate of 0.3%. This represents an additional sign that the US economy is not at all on the glimpse of the recession, but quite opposite, based on macro data, it stands in a relatively solid shape. The biggest weekly winners are again tech stocks. Market favorite Nvidia managed to gain an incredible 18% during the week. Apple and Microsoft were traded higher by some 3% and 4% on a weekly level. Another aspect which should be also considered is that the majority of companies on Wall Street posted quarterly results. The analysts are noting that around 78% of the listed companies posted results which were higher from the market estimate, which additionally impacted positive market expectations, and pushed the index to the higher grounds.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Combined US Equities Since the last heads up analysis before the bearish pullback, some more new developments came into play, particularly how the equity market turned bullish... 1. Heads up given for RISK ON in the green ellipse. The weekly chart is actually very obvious with a long tail candlestick; 2. The latter part of that week finished with a combination of a long bullish candle, breaking and closing above a resistance trendline; 3. Then continued by another breakout of a range; and 4. This week closed with another colid bullish candle that closed the gap resistance, with another bullish candle to boot. 5. MACD and VolDiv indicators are bullish since the early part of the week. Can easily expect a revisit to the last high of 906.50, but not before a retest of the gap support.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Markets Love the Bulls!!! Close to All-Time HighsS&P pulled back 78% of the fall Nasdaq pulled back 61% of the fall Dow pulled back 78% of the fall IWM pulled back 50% of the fall Impressive rips for 2 weeks of trading for the "buy the dip" community. This week's direction was steady in futures, and gaps higher in indexes from opening to closing bell. I'm keeping the charts as clean and simple as possible. September and October are rarely good months for the markets so perhaps all-time highs are a bit of a stretch, but we're much closer now than we were August 5th when everyone was freaking out. Upcoming news for next week: FOMC Minutes US PMI Jackson Hole (with Powell Speech) My defensive plays are focused through August and September expirations, but I'll likely continue to add hedges if appropriate. Have a great weekend and back at it next week!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
2 Weeks of Recovery - But Seasonality Lurks in Sep/OctMonday - UP Tuesday - UP Wednesday - UP Thursday - UP SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!! I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality and upcoming news for the US. PMI next week and Jackson Hole. More employment news and PCE before the month ends with NVDA earnings. CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 76% probability the FED will cut 25 bps September 18 and we will still see more news on employment and inflation come in before the official FOMC meeting. Actively trading, cautiously bullish, a bit surprised by how motivated this market is to recover. If there's any hesitation, it would make sense technically. I'm not interesting in calling tops/bottoms, I'm just interested in good levels to trade. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
SNP500 / SPX 🔍 SPX Analysis: Navigating the Upcoming Market Movements 📉 The SPX chart presents key dates that traders should focus on: September 18, 2024 & December 3, 2024 & February 3, 2025 - Green Lines: These dates indicate potential local lows. These could offer strategic opportunities for accumulating positions as the market is likely to bounce back from these points. November 11, 2024 & March 10, 2025 - Red Lines: These dates are projected to be local peaks. Traders should consider taking profits around these times, as the market could face resistance or start to decline. Currently, the SPX is in a downtrend, with a potential reversal expected around September 18, 2024. This could be an optimal point for re-entering the market or adding to existing positions. #SPX #StockMarket #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Investing #S&P500
SP:SPXShort
by trushkovskiy
It's a Bull - It's a Bear - It's Time to Make Up Your Mind3 straight weeks of setting from mid-July crescendos with a crash August 2. But the "crash" was met with a vicious buying spree that now places the major index 50% of so from the large high to low swing. In this video, I breakdown the technicals and scenarios trying to make some sense of where we could be heading. We are mostly through Q2 earnings. PPI and CPI prints have been digested (market likes it mostly). We still have retail sales and unemployment claims this week and if the market reacts bearish, it's a pretty obvious sign the market is more concerned about a softer labor market and recession than it is inflation. If the markets reacts bullish and continues to grind higher, we may be looking at another incredible V bottom without the FED having to do anything - which would be a surprise :) I'm cautiously bullish and believe the market will struggle to blow through all-time highs, but it's possible we still test and sniff them out, though unlikely it will be broad. More about big money moves are cutting positions in Mag 7 so a true broadening will be a nice change of pace instead of a highly concentrated Top 10 carrying the overall market. Enjoy the video and thanks for watching!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChrisPulver
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Also trading range price action since we closed 8 points above the open price, so many parallels to dax. Market is near the big bear trend line around 5500 and the big round number is the most obvious magnet currently. Market wants to get there desperately and a bit above for an easy liquidity grab. It’s likely that we hit 5500 tomorrow and the bear trend line. There bears have their do or die moment as well and I think it’s 50/50 if we reverse or break above. current market cycle: Bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 5430 - 5500 bull case: Bulls now made 360 points from the lows and they now want to break strongly above 5500 and probably make new ath afterwards. Today’s price action was mostly sideways but with higher highs and higher lows, so technically a bull trend. There is nothing to deeply analyse here. We are grinding higher on low volume and are near the big round number and the daily 20ema. Tomorrow we have an answer where the next 300 points will be made. Invalidation is below 5430. bear case: Bears trying but not enough. They need a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema. Right now they have to pray for the bear trend line to hold and find enough sellers at 5500 to trade back down. If the bear trend line breaks, it’s moon time because all the bears will cover their shorts there. Invalidation is above 5530. short term: Neutral 5450 - 5530. Need a strong breakout to either side to enter bigger positions again. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P500 Inflation below 3% 1st time since 2021! Must the FED cut?The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported today below 3% for the first time since April 13 2021! This means that Inflation (red trend-line) is getting closer to the Fed's desired benchmark, coming in contrast with the fears of an economic slowdown last week. On today's S&P500 (SPX) analysis we examine the effect of an Inflation drop on the market. As you can see, the sudden drop on the Inflation Rate in mid-2022 was followed by a sideways trend in the past year (since July 2023). This is not the first time we see such consolidation after a strong decline. In fact, the most similar pattern to today's is the post August 2012 consolidation on Inflation. The similarities don't stop there. As this chart is our well-known 'S&P500 +10 year Cheatsheet' which we have published in the past and updated numerous times, we can see that the index has most likely entered the 2nd phase (green Rectangle) of its cyclical expansion (Channel Up), that tends to lead to a cooling Bear Phase in the form of a Megaphone. The current 1W RSI pattern is also similar to post 2013. As a result, we expect the index to resume the uptrend and even hit 6900 at least as it will be a +95.84% rise (similar to 2011 - 2014). Regarding the Fed, and whether or not they should cut the interest rates in September, we believe that this will be welcomed, especially on a 1 year basis, as it will stimulate the economy with inflation getting as close to the Fed's target as possible. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
10
CPI Report in Focus: Futures Steady, Key Levels to WatchFutures Steady Ahead of Key Inflation Report The price has pushed up and reached our target successfully, with momentum still aiming for 5,460 and 5,491. Today’s CPI report is expected to significantly impact market movements. Bullish Scenario: The price is likely to attempt reaching 5,460, with further movement depending on the CPI result. If the CPI comes in below 3.00%, this could drive the price higher. Bearish Scenario: A CPI reading of 3.00% or higher could trigger a decline, with the price potentially falling to 5,409 and 5,372. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5,460 - Resistance Levels: 5491, 5539, 5584 - Support Levels: 5409, 5,72, 5320 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5,372 and 5,491. previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 5407.Colleagues, the price has moved down a lot, but that means we have an opportunity to enter a long position more favorably. I still believe that price is still in an upward move of great impulse, and now there is a complex correction taking place. I expect an uptrend to begin around the 5172 area. The first expected target is in the 5407 area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
2
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: SPX Resumed the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave View in SPX suggests the trend should continue higher within the sequence started from March 2023 low as the part of daily sequence. It favors upside in wave ((5)) while dips remain above 5124.76 low. Since March 2024 high of (3), it starts a correction as wave (4) ending in April at 4953.56 low and bounced again. The market resumed the rally building an impulse as wave (5) ended at 5669.67 high and also wave ((3)) in higher degree. SPX begins a large retracement in July 16 high. Down from wave ((3)), the index dropped developing a double correction structure. First leg lower, built a zig zag correction to complete a wave (W) at 5390.95 low. Then, the market did a flat structure higher as wave (X) ended at 5566.16 high. The index resumed to the downside forming another zig zag as wave (Y) of ((4)). The cycle was completed at 5119.26 low and also wave ((4)). Actually, SPX has continued higher trading in wave (1) of ((5)). The wave 1 of (1) ended at 5330.64 high and wave 2 of (1) finished at 5195.54 low. The wave 3 of (1) started and we are expecting more upside. While price action stays above 5119.26 low, we are calling for more upside to continue the rally as wave ((5)).
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2