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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Quick one today because markets did the obvious thing and we learned nothing from this trading session. Commodities - Gold is not worthy to be written about today. Oil was bullish as expected to 83.40 and 84/84 were my targets for many weeks now. Bulls can do some more here but it should not go much above 84. Best bears can hope for here is sideways. Bitcoin broke strongly above the bear trend line but failed at the daily 20ema. Bears need to keep it below 64000 or we will see much higher prices again. Can short this once we trade back below 62400. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Market has the daily 50% pb almost exactly at Friday’s close. You do not need to analyse this deeper. Market is in balance and 5523ish is the fair/agreed price. Prominent tails above and below bars, tells you that it’s a trading range and you should buy low and sell high. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged Smaller tf = trading range key levels: 5500 - 5550 bull case: Market is in balance. Bulls need break above 5550. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need break below 5500 and preferably a daily close below. Invalidation is above 5550. short term: Neutral af. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Use small position size and wide stops to scale in. Best trades though were selling the expanding triangle bar 30-34 where market should clear resistance 5537 and that was also the us open price and we just sold off for 30 points. Next trade was the bar 41 entry bar after a very good signal bar 40. Buying near 5000 was almost a no brainer but since bar 37 was so big an climactic, I hesitated as well.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX: correction in H2 2024?During the past week, the SPX had some notable movements. The index closed at 5.460 on Friday, marking a slight decline of 0.11% within the week after a dip of 0.41% on Friday. Friday's trading session came with strong volatility after the release of PCE data. The trading range was between levels of 5.522 and 5.452. The inflation in May, measured through PCE, was standing at 2.6%, the lowest annual rate within the last three years. At the same time, the University of Michigan sentiment figures were better from market forecast, rising to 68.2. Overall the markets technical indicators remain mixed, with some analysts suggesting a potential for continued bullish momentum, while others note the risks of overbought conditions. Analysts from JPMorgan in their mid-year outlook, noted a challenging environment for the continuation of the stock bull market, which was generally supported by several stocks within the tech industry. Still, JPMorgan did not change their target for S&P 500 for this year, which is 4.200. The bank estimates that the short reversal in the stock market might be expected during the second half of 2024. They have also noted that the strong rise in indices in a Q4 of 2023 was supported by the expectations on four Fed's rate cuts during the course of 2024, which has not occurred. Despite the recent drop, the S&P 500 index has shown impressive performance over the year.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPX500USD ( UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE ) ( 1H )SPX500USD HELLO TRADERS Tendency the price stabilizing below turning level at 5,488 , indicates under bearish pressure PRICE MOVEMENT : the price stabilizing below turning level at 5,488 , indicates to reach a support level, have two condition to reach this level , first condition corrective 5,488 before dropping to 5,438 , the second condition in a direct manner reach around 5,378 , if the breaking turning level at 5,488 , the price of the spx500usd reach a new historical peak , but reaches the resistance level early around 5,524 , after create new resistance level at 5,561 TARGET LEVEL : TURNING LEVEL : 5,488 RESISTANCE LEVEL : 5,524 , 5,561 SUPPORT LEVEL : 5,438 , 5,378
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ArinaKarayi
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls will probably retest the highs or even make a higher high soon. First pullbacks / low 1, is a buy signal in a bull trend. After that retest, I - again, have nothing for the bulls. We are at the peak of this bubble imo and that’s where you get cautious and not even more bullish. Nvidia will touch 100 over the next weeks, if not days. comment: Bulls got their retest as written and now market is technically free to have a major trend reversal. June was a perfect bull trend from the beginning of the month. Market had 3 legs up with a two legged correction completed now. We could spend more time at the highs in a trading range or have a deeper pullback from here, which is my preferred path forward. The bull trend line will probably be tested around 5460 and there market will decide if it wants to stay above 5400 or get down to 5320/5350. current market cycle: End of the bull trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback. key levels: 5450 - 5600 bull case: Bulls made a perfect double top with a huge reversal bar on the daily chart. Not good for them but they still managed to close above 5500, which is still max bullish. If the market stays above 5500 and keeps the most recent bull gap to 5430 open, we could probably only continue further up to above 5600. I do think this is the lower probability path forward. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Market moved sideways on the week and the daily ema is only about 30 points away and will soon be hit. Last time bears crossed it, they went 60 points below it to form the current nearest bull trend line which I think will be hit next week too and there we will have the most important support for now. If bulls are done with this and want their profits secured, we will see a bigger market character change where rips will be sold and we make lower lows again. 5450 will be the big price to break for the bears, if they want more downside. Monday will be key imo. Invalidation is above 5620. outlook last week: short term: Don’t get too bearish too soon. You never want to try to pick a top or a bottom. Let the big bois with endless money do that for you and follow along. Expecting another push for retest of the highs, followed by another leg down, as painted in my chart. → Last Sunday we traded 5534 and now we are at 5521. Retest of ath was 5585, outlook was perfect and good for 51 points. short term: Neutral until bears get follow through and print lower lows below 5500. I’d short to 5490 and see how market reacts to the daily ema. If the support is weak, more shorting to 5450ish. Absolutely no interest in buying here. medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. I gave 5600 months ago and we are close enough to it or will touch it next week (5587 was close enough imo). Afterwards the money is made on the downside. 5300 over the next 2-4 weeks, followed by 5000 over the summer. updated: the time span for 5300. Could take 2-4 weeks instead of 1-2 current swing trade: Did not enter shorts in a sideways moving market. I want a strong break below before shorting. Chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect, I adjusted it to the Friday lower high, removed the minor bull wedge and channel and added the recent bull gap which will probably soon be closed.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPY S&P 500 ETF revised Price Target for the end of the yearIf you didn't purchase SPY at the start of this year: I initially set a price target of $540 at the beginning of this year, but upon reflection, I find that projection to have been overly cautious. I am now adjusting my forecast upward to $560. This revision stems from my belief that we are entering a significant supercycle in the stock market, particularly fueled by advancements in artificial intelligence technologies. The current market conditions may prompt a temporary pullback due to levels of overbought assets. However, my overall outlook remains extremely optimistic about the broader market trajectory. I see continued strength and potential for growth, especially driven by the ongoing innovations and developments within the AI sector. As investors navigate through potential short-term fluctuations, I maintain a bullish stance, anticipating robust performance and opportunities in the market as we progress through the year.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
12
Lean and Prep for WEEK 7.1.24I am a discretionary trader. This means there are some weeks in the year when I wait and watch what’s going on. From here, there are 3 potentials - 1-We keep ranging here and the stocks keep choppy. In this case, it is waste of premiums. 2-We drop. In this case it is better to wait for lower levels to find attractive setups. 3-We rally. If this happens, I am pretty sure something nice and attractive will show up on my radar which I will share. Stay Frosty!
CME_MINI:ESU2024
by Beyond_Charts
🏯 TOPIX FUTURES: JAPANESE BULL SAMURAI IS STILL ALIVELegendary investor Warren Buffett was on a trip to Tokyo, the capital of Japan, two months earlier in mid-April 2023, and the titans of the country's giant energy and commodity conglomerates were there to make their presentations. As usual, over glasses of Coca-Cola NYSE:KO - one of Buffett's most famous investments, they walked into Warren Buffett's suite at the luxury Four Seasons hotel and individually told the 92-year-old American investor the same thing: Japanese trading houses are cheap and should accelerate their move beyond commodities. The support of the Oracle of Omaha is an important vote of confidence in the big five Japanese trading houses - Mitsubishi Corporations TSE:8058 , Mitsui TSE:8031 , Sumitomo TSE:8053 , Itochu TSE:8001 and Marubeni TSE:8002 It's also a broad endorsement of Japan, that is considered to have outlived its heyday 30-35 years ago, as well as considered less relevant than Asian counterparts such as China and India. But there's one big question: Is Buffett betting on phasing out fossil fuels, the trading house products themselves, or a combination of the two? Or something else, like impact of the weak yen!? Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.B reported in August 2020 that it had acquired about 5% of the shares of five trading houses, that sent their stocks up and raised their total investment value above $6 billion. When the Covid-19 pandemic dampened demand for goods, it pushed down the value of company stocks, four of which traded below book value. “They were selling, I thought, at a ridiculous price,” - Buffett said to CNBC in March 2023. Three years after the Covid-19 pandemic (that is now hardly remembered) Warren Buffett's bets on Japan have nearly tripled to over $17 billion. But even this Growth does not stop Buffett. Staying in Tokyo this spring, Buffett confirmed intentions to buy more shares, and participate in more big deals. In addition, Berkshire recently unveiled plans to issue its own yen-denominated bonds, which help hedge against the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar as well as depreciation of Japanese stocks in dollar terms. The technical main chart is dedicated to futures on the TOPIX index TSE:TOPIX widely known, along with the Nikkei 225 index $TSE:NKY . The TOPIX index is an important stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in Japan, tracking all the local companies of the TSE Prime-market division. Buffett's mission to Japan marked, as it easy to find in the technical picture of TOPIX ( TSE:TOPIX ) - a significant moment, as a result of the breakdown of the key long-term resistance, with the prospect of further more than doubling the index TSE:TOPIX and its market value.
OSE:TOPIX1!Long
by Pandorra
Technological evolution, while there's still hesitant people? We're entering a phase where new financial systems are being built and run on Bitcoin. We're entering a new age of LLM's powered entirely by NVDA, DELL & TSLA furiously adopting the new computing model. TSLA self driving, Robotaxi, Optimus (robots), DELL? Yet to see how it plays out but it looks like TSLA will be somehow using them in their business model. DELL entering Ai + Bitcoin thought processes, SMCI offering data centres access to this setup. Next up APPL entering AI, MSFT, AMD yet to enter. Looks like the most bullish setup we've ever had in modern history. The only way to avoid a debt crisis is to go full forward and fund this new age tech and hope it works and forget about inflation. The .COM bubble had a healthy reset leaving us with technology we use everyday enhancing the quality of life. In a future where majority of workers are Robots and "Ai" now handles complex task that cost the most to maintain, inflation, CPI, Interest rates may become a thing of the past replaced by a new economic system / model.
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn4782510
2
S&P500 Navigating Volatility with Key Price Levels and ScenariosS&P 500 Analysis: Navigating Volatility with Key Price Levels and Scenarios The S&P 500 price broke through the pivot zone and closed a 4-hour candle above it, continuing its upward trajectory towards 5225. Intraday Analysis: Today, the S&P 500 price is expected to reach 5525 before descending again towards 5491, stabilizing above 5492. Bullish Scenario: 5525 will act as a pivotal line for today. If the price reaches this level and breaks through, the bullish trend is likely to continue towards 5550. Bearish Scenario: Should the price remain below 5525, it is expected to decline towards 5491. A break below 5491 would indicate a further bearish trend, potentially reaching 5460. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5525 - Resistance Levels: 5550, 5585, 5600 - Support Levels: 5491, 5460, 5440 Today's Expected Trading Range: The anticipated trading range for today is between the resistance at 5550 and the support at 5460.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
S&P buyers dominate market; sellers wait asideLast week began with a powerful rally. After the bulls failed to push higher the next day, sellers seized the initiative and tried to drive the market lower. However, they didn't accomplish much, and the week ended with a potential reversal pattern on the hourly chart. If this pattern confirms today, we could see another bull run very early. Even if it doesn’t confirm, there is still substantial support just below. On the longer timeframes (weekly and monthly), buyers still have full control, with no warning signs. While the price is slightly overbought on the daily chart, this is not a significant concern in strong uptrends. Sector rotation appears healthy – despite the market being pressured by weakness in XLK, other sectors (e.g., XLF, XLV) appreciated. Important economic data will be released on Thursday and Friday. As long as there are no negative surprises, the market is expected to remain strong. The market outlook is a definite "long". New buyers can try to establish position upon the confirmation of the hourly reversal patters and upon the pullback into consolidation zone (if it happens). Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
SPx (GDP + Consolidation Movement)SPx Outlook The price still consolidates between 5460 and 5491, so should break one side to continue its direction. Intraday Analysis: Today, the price is likely to stabilize below 5491, maintaining the bearish trend towards 5460, and should break that as well to get 5410. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish reversal, the price must stabilize above 5492. If this occurs, the bullish trend may target 5529 and subsequently 5550. Bearish Scenario: The price should stabilize under the pivot zone, which is between 5502 and 5479, it is expected to decline further towards 5440 and 5410. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5491 - Resistance Levels: 4429, 5550, 5585 - Support Levels: 5460, 5440, 5410 Today's Expected Trading Range: The anticipated trading range for today is between the resistance at 5530 and the support at 5410.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 is oversold on the hourly chartThe SPX500's daily chart is still trading in a bullish zone. The hourly chart has pulled back to oversold territory suggesting a bullish snap-back may be due. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) : CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) : Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
S&P500 Index / Balancing Bullish Trends with Cautious OptimismS&P 500 Index Technical Analysis Current Market Overview: The S&P 500 index recently reversed and stabilized within a bullish zone after closing a 4-hour candle above the critical level of 5491. This development suggests a potential bullish trend towards 5529 in the near term. Intraday Analysis: Today, it is expected that the price will remain stable above 5491, sustaining the bullish momentum towards 5529 and potentially reaching 5550. Bullish Scenario: As long as the price continues to trade above the pivot zone, defined between 5491 and 5472, we anticipate further upward movement towards 5529 and 5550. Bearish Scenario: For a bearish trend to initiate, the price must first stabilize below 5491. Should it close a 4-hour candle under 5472, this would signal the start of a bearish trend. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5491 - Resistance Levels: 5506, 5529, 5550 - Support Levels: 5472, 5440, 5410 Today's Expected Trading Range: The anticipated trading range for today lies between the resistance at 5530 and the support at 5472. In summary, maintaining a position above the pivot zone supports a bullish outlook, with potential targets at 5529 and 5550. Conversely, a breach below 5491, followed by a close under 5472, would indicate a shift towards a bearish trend. ----------- Cautious Markets Temper Tech Enthusiasm A mix of caution ahead of a U.S. inflation reading, renewed enthusiasm in tech stocks driven by Nvidia's resurgence, and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials has resulted in a market searching for direction. Traders are hesitant to make significant moves ahead of Friday's crucial release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate that annual growth will slow to 2.6% in May, the lowest rate in over three years. Until the PCE data is released, market participants are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials. So far, policymakers are advocating for patience, emphasizing that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, thereby dampening any excitement about potential rate cuts.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P500 Seeking the 4H MA200 for buyersThe S&P500 index (SPX) got rejected at the top of the 2-month Channel Up that started on the April 19 bottom and is already below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a sign of weakness for the short-term and based on the previous two times it did so, it might be accelerated. Technically, the market should seek the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the Support, which is what took place on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up on May 31. We are looking to turn bullish again close to the 4H MA200 and target 5650, which is not only at the top of the Channel Up but also below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous two Higher Highs got priced. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
2024-06-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Expanding triangle on the 1h tf and that’s a form of a trading range. Big up, big down, big confusion, more sideways likely. 5530 is the most important price currently at about the middle of the range. Did the bears do enough damage today to expect follow through tomorrow? I don’t think so. They barely made another lower low. Selling down here is a bad trade. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5600 bull case: Bulls tried and failed at 5558 which qualifies as a decent lower high. Bulls need to stop the selling above 5500 or risk trading back down to the daily ema around 5460. They still see this as a minor pullback in the huge bull trend. Their problem is, that bears printed 3 consecutive bear bars now and broke the first bull trend line. It’s a bad buy here unless they get strong momentum going tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears doing good and trapping overly eager bulls in buying everything but the selling is not strong enough to question another retest of the highs. Until bears trade below the daily ema, they will be quick to exit shorts that lose momentum. Their next target is 5500 and then 5470, where we should hit the daily ema. If they also somehow manage to get below that level, the bull trend line will be tested next - around 5420ish. Invalidation is above 5560. short term: Neutral between 5500 - 5540, bullish above and bearish below medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Strong buying on bar 36 which was a decent buy since bears could not get below 5525. Triangle bar 37-47 and bar 48 was a good entry bar for shorts. Strong break below the triangle with follow through. Could have closed shorts on bar 56/57 because 4 consecutive bull bars but they had big tails above. If you held, could have been 100+ points.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX: overbought momentum - againNvidia has again impacted the course of the S&P index, but this time to the opposite side. The index pulled back on Friday, after the market reassessed the stock's all time high. The stock notably declined on Friday closing down by more than 3%. This drop contributed to a broader sell-off in tech stocks. The decline was partially attributed to profit-taking after a strong rally during the year of around 155% year-to-date, and concerns about the sustainability of its high valuation amidst the ongoing AI boom. The S&P 500 still managed to reach a new record in value during the previous week and surged around 0.6%. The new ATH for the index is 5.503, reached on Thursday. Still, Friday`s decline brought the index to end the week at the level of 5.471. At the same time analysts from Deutsche Bank are noting a high possibility of the S&P 500 pullback in the coming period. They are specifically referring to three factors which might indicate that the short reversal is coming, including: increase in equity positioning of discretionary funds, nine consecutive weeks of inflows into equity funds and approaching buyback blackout period before the release of Q2 results. These factors might bring a short pause to the continuing uptrend of the index, as per DB analysts.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the magnificent 7, we will see big moves down to end the trend and enter a trading range. The bull trend line around 5300 will be hit in the next 2-4 weeks and afterwards I think we will form a lower high before we will be on our way to 5000 again. As of now I think bears want to see a big climactic bull bar to 5600 before they begin shorting again. comment: Market did exactly what I wrote in my last bear case sentence. Climactic bull bar on Monday with some follow through Tuesday and Wednesday to almost 5600 and then a pullback. Bulls touched the big upper bull trend line which began on 2023-02-02. Bears broke below the very tight bull channel but just so slightly and with tails below the daily bars. I expect the market to retest the highs again before another second leg down, which could then form into a decent pullback, like the one we had in April. Market sentiment is max bullishness from everyone everywhere and the posts about “this time it’s different” have become common. It’s the fomo phase where your Mother asks if she should buy some Nvidia stocks. current market cycle: End of the bull trend is near. Will soon see a bigger pullback. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls will probably retest the highs or even make a higher high soon. First pullbacks / low 1, is a buy signal in a bull trend. After that retest, I - again, have nothing for the bulls. We are at the peak of this bubble imo and that’s where you get cautious and not even more bullish. Nvidia will touch 100 over the next weeks, if not days. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: The profit taking has begun imo. All bullish targets are met and we are trading at multiple upper resistance lines and prices. The daily ema is 80 points away and will get tested soon. Bears see the 3 pushes up from end of May and now want a decent pullback to the bull trend line around 5400, wich is also the breakout retest. Invalidation is above 5620. outlook last week: No interest in buying here unless it’s a momentum scalp. I will look for weakness and a trade back to a test of the daily 20ema which is around 5400. Bulls are still heavily favored in terms of probability. → Last Sunday we traded 5502 and now we are at 5534. New ath was 5587, so my outlook was good for 85 points. You. Are. Most. Welcome. Compare that to Newsletters who cost 130$ per month and include planetary constellations in their market analysis. short term: Don’t get too bearish too soon. You never want to try to pick a top or a bottom. Let the big bois with endless money do that for you and follow along. Expecting another push for retest of the highs, followed by another leg down, as painted in my chart. medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. I gave 5600 months ago and we are close enough to it or will touch it next week. Afterwards the money is made on the downside. 5300 over the next 1-2 weeks, followed by 5000 over the summer. current swing trade: None but will enter new shorts next week. Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Two-legged correction down to 5000 over the next 4-8 weeks, followed by a last lower high before the next big bear trend will begin. That’s only price-wise but not time wise. Could get there much faster or much slower.Update: slightly adjusted the bigger two legged correction and added a smaller one.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis and Intraday ForecastS&P 500 Index Technical Analysis The price has declined from its resistance level of 5529 and is currently trading in a bearish zone. As long as it remains below the pivot line, the bearish trend is expected to continue towards 5410. Intraday Analysis: Today, the price is likely to stabilize below 5479, maintaining the bearish trend towards 5440 and 5410. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish reversal, the price must stabilize above 5502. If this occurs, the bullish trend may target 5529 and subsequently 5550. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below the pivot zone, which lies between 5502 and 5479, it is expected to decline further towards 5440 and 5410. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5479 - Resistance Levels: 5502, 5529, 5550 - Support Levels: 5440, 5410, 5373 Today's Expected Trading Range: The anticipated trading range for today is between the resistance at 5502 and the support at 5410.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
$SPY update: Idea hasn't changed, only the timing. $480 next.Update: Largely the same idea, just the timing changed. I was wrong in that I initially thought we'd reject the $525-530 area and move down to my target of $480, then form a final high by the end of July/August around $550. However price decided it wanted to go straight higher to $550 area before it falls. Think we'll see a final high be put in sometime in the next week, then we'll finally make the move lower to my target of $480. The current move extending all the way to $550 gives me confidence that this is likely to be the top for the year and we shouldn't see a move back to this area. While the index is going to start its decline into a bear market, certain individual stocks will still see new highs. The tricky part will be identifying which ones still have upside left. Largely I think we'll see the long-term reversals on the Mag 7 and money flow into value stocks. Lots of beaten up charts that look good for upside soon. I'll start sharing those shortly.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
35
Market Soars with Unyielding MomentumLast week was marked by complete bullish dominance. After positive inflation data was released on Wednesday, the market opened with a significant gap up. The next day, sellers made a sluggish attempt to fill this gap but never came close. To sum it up: 1. Prices are in an uptrend on weekly, monthly, and daily charts. 2. Last week closed strong with almost no seller pressure. 3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 12th. So far, this market is fully controlled by buyers. Notably, growth is driven mostly by tech stocks, reflecting a "risk-on" mode of investing. Some people are concerned about the narrow breadth, but it doesn't matter much whether growth is driven by many names or just a few large stocks. While narrow breadth can lead to increased volatility, the fact is that money is being poured into the market. As long as this continues, the market will remain strong. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
2024-06-20 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Interesting trading day to say the least. Globex rallied 27 points to 5587 where it stalled for couple of hours and then before US opened the floodgates were opened. Just strong selling throughout the day with huge bull spikes in between. Bears accomplished a drop of 23 points from open to close, that’s just weak but Globex high to daily low was 62 points. The 15m 20ema was decent today and bulls kept it above the important bull trend line and still far above the daily ema which is at 5450, so 100 points to go. Market has formed a triangle at the lows, which will probably just break out sideways in the Globex and EU session. Since tomorrow is Globex, I have no opinion on where we close the week tbh. Rough guess is at least a close below 5560 but I prefer a close below the bull trend line and below 5500 but that’s low probability. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5600 bull case: Bulls want to stay above 5540 which is my big orange support line. If they fail here, they will most likely also fail at the bull trend line and then 5480/5500 will come fast. Bulls bought every new low today and made money on lower time frames but they could not close above the 15m 20ema. That will be their first target for tomorrow and then above the 1h ema. I expect a pullback tomorrow and depending on how strong it is, another leg down or total melt up to 5600 into opex. Invalidation is below 5520. bear case: Bears had a decent day today. Naturally they want a second leg down, which would bring us to around 5460/5470, which would be my preferred close of this week. Since we are at bigger support, I don’t have much confidence in the bears. Need to see tomorrows price action in EU session. Invalidation is above 5560. short term: Neutral here between 5520 - 5560, bullish above and bearish below medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting every pullback near the 15m ema was decent.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds