$TSLA Range Bound Trade?NASDAQ:TSLA I took a trading position in this yesterday at $169.55. The idea was that once I saw price rejection after the low of 167.41, it is a reversal play. There is still a good deal of resistance around that blue horizontal line. My idea or thought is that this has been range bound for some time as such it very well could go to that resistance area around $179 which is about a 5% move from my entry. I plan on selling some into that area and then decide to hold or sale if does or does not climb over that area.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
S&P 500 Hit Record Highs for Third Consecutive Day!!!S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 ( OANDA:SPX500USD ) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated, successfully reaching the projected targets.
With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) result being released at 3.3% as we expected, the index tested its final resistance level of 5450.
Intraday Analysis:
Today, the price may stabilize within the bearish zone, attempting to break through the pivot line at 5423.
Bullish Scenario:
The price is likely to consolidate between 5423 and 5450. A breakout above 5450 would activate the next bullish trend, targeting 5484.
Bearish Scenario:
Should the price close a 4-hour or 1-hour candle below 5423, it is expected to decline towards 5384 and potentially 5372, thereby reaching the demand zone.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5423
- Resistance Levels: 5450, 5484, 5520
- Support Levels: 5383, 5347, 5320
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The anticipated movement range for today is between the resistance at 5450 and the support at 5372.
In summary, maintaining a position above 5450 supports a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5423 indicates a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5372.
Previous idea:
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Record Highs for Third Consecutive Day Amid Fed's Interest Rate Forecast
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, driven by unexpectedly mild inflation data. However, these indexes retreated from their intraday peaks following the Federal Reserve's announcement that it projects only one interest rate cut this year.
In a significant shift from its March projections, which included three quarter-percentage-point reductions, the Fed concluded its June 11-12 meeting by stating it would leave its policy rate unchanged, as anticipated by the market.
The stock market experienced volatility after the news and the subsequent press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pared their gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day nearly flat.
Stocks opened higher after the Labor Department reported that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unexpectedly unchanged in May, due to a decline in gasoline prices. This softer inflation data initially fueled market optimism.
"The CPI number was certainly cooler than estimates and drove optimism to start the day, but that was only half of today's menu," noted Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.
The mixed signals from the inflation data and the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts created a complex trading environment, leaving investors to navigate between optimism and uncertainty.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to the area of 5443 level.Dear colleagues, since the 5351 level has been broken, I believe that wave “2” has been completed, which means that wave “3”, which consists of five small waves, is currently developing.
Now I assume that either the price will continue the small wave “1”, or will form a small wave “2” in the area of 61.8% Fibonacci level, then continue the upward movement to the area of 5443 level.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPX Continues Its Bullish Trend (CPI + FED RATE)SP500 Index Technical Analysis
SPX Continues Its Bullish Trend
The price successfully retested and pushed higher, reaching our previously mentioned target.
Today's Outlook:
The market is maintaining its bullish trend, aiming for approximately 5420. The release of the CPI data today will significantly impact the market. A CPI reading below 3.4% is expected to be positive for indices, potentially driving the SPX to a new all-time high.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as trades above 5372 means will continue the bullish trend toward 5420
Bearish Scenario:
If the price trades below 5372, it indicates a potential drop towards 5347. A breach of 5347 could further lead to 5320. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the downward area, with the next target at 5260.
- Pivot Line: 5372
- Resistance Levels: 5404, 5422, 5484
- Support Levels: 5347, 5320, 5301
Today's Expected Trading Range:
- Support: 5320
- Resistance: 5480
In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
Our Previous idea:
Cancellation of “Head-and-Shoulders” Pattern. Bears trapThe "Head-and-Shoulders" (H&S) pattern is considered a powerful trend reversal indicator. However, it can also become very costly for new traders. Yesterday, the S&P provided a great example of H&S cancellation. Traders who entered short on the break-out of the shoulders line (and Monday's low) incurred losses after the price returned to the previous day's range and rallied all the way up. Such scenarios happen more often than you might think.
To avoid being caught in such traps, it is important to consider two things:
1. Higher Level Context : In this example, the H&S pattern formed on the hourly time frame. But if we zoom out, we'll see that on the weekly chart, the price is in a strong uptrend, currently making new historical highs. This is a very bullish context, with buyers having full control over the price.
2. Price Behavior on the Break-out : Upon confirmation of a reversal pattern, you should expect sellers to jump in and drive the price down as fast as possible. It is "abnormal" to see the price returning to the previous range and gaining acceptance. This is a trigger that something is not right.
Some people will add volume analysis on the break-out, but I’m personally not a fan of it, especially for SPY.
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Dax continues with daily new lows in a two-sided market. Nasdaq made another ath 48 points higher and broke above it’s wedge. Mixed markets going into tomorrows CPI and FOMC releases. I expect nothing less of a firework to either direction. For sp500 and nasdaq I expect a complete blow-off top if CPI is not really hot and then only Jpow can save the bears. For nasdaq at this point the 20000 target is absolutely reasonable and in reach. If the numbers align tomorrow, we will see more bear slaughter.
Commodities had a trading range day. Gold is trying to grind higher but new highs get sold off hard on bigger volume and oil is keeping it above 77, which is very bullish imo. Bulls can probably get another leg up to 80 again.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Bulls got their big leg up to a new ath again. It’s still not breaking clearly above 5400, which would make all bears capitulate so we can melt to 5500 or higher. It’s a clear trading range with small higher highs. Everything below 5340 is bought, so you know exactly where to buy.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5330 - 5387
bull case: Again, I can not go full-bull because we are still inside the trading range. Tomorrow will bring a big move to either side. Bull targets have been in my weekly chart for many months now. On the daily chart you can draw multiple bull wedges and market broke above the smallest today. Confirmation would be above 5400.
Invalidation is below 5360.
bear case: Bears had a rather strong EU session but bulls gave em the finger with bar 10 and a 40 point reversal. They need to keep it below 5400 or I think many stops will be triggered and bears will give up. If bears get help from CPI or Jpow tomorrow, 5300 is the obvious first target and below that comes last week’s low 5200. TBH I can see a move down to 5155, which is the 50% pb from this trading range 4935 - 5385. If CPI prints hot and Jpow hammers on top, the market will have to react because it is not positioned for any risk what so ever.
Invalidation is above 5400.
short term: Bearish here at 5386 for at least 5355 again. Invalid above 5400. Don’t trade tomorrow’s news events. It’s mostly gambling.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long 5340 or since bar 10. No if’s or buts. Has worked the last days so expect it to work again until it clearly stops working.
SPX Continues Bullish Trend After RetestSPX Continues Bullish Trend After Retest
The SPX has completed its retest and subsequently pushed higher, maintaining its bullish trend. As long as the index trades above the key levels of 5347 and 5320, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. This week, the SPX is projected to reach the initial target of 5378, with the potential to advance further towards 5423.
Bullish Scenario:
the price has a bullish trend to reach 5378 as long as trades above 5347, breaking 5378 means will continue the bullish trend to get 5423
Bearish Scenario:
If the price trades below 5347, it indicates a potential drop towards 5320. A breach of 5320 could further lead to 5301. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the bearish area, with the next target at 5260.
Key Level
- Pivot Line: 5347
- Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423
- Support Levels: 5320, 5301, 5260
Today's Expected Trading Range:
- Support: 5320
- Resistance: 5420
In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5330 - 5385
bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 5350.
bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release.
Invalidation is above 5400.
short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.
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SPX500 trading in bullish channelThere was some volatility in the market last week. Nevertheless, the SPX500 is trading in a bullish area. The longer this is maintained and the RSI remains above 50 the greater the likelihood of higher prices ahead.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
SP500 Index Technical AnalysisSP500 Index Technical Analysis
The SP500 index appears poised for a retest of the 5320 level. A break below 5320 would likely lead the index to touch 5301.
Bullish Scenario:
For the bullish trend to continue, the price must stabilize above 5347. If it does, the next target will be 5375. Breaking through 5375 could lead to new record highs.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price trades below 5347, it indicates a potential drop towards 5320. A breach of 5320 could further lead to 5301. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the bearish area, with the next target at 5260.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5347
- Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423
- Support Levels: 5320, 5301, 5260
Today's Expected Trading Range:
- Support: 5301
- Resistance: 5375
In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
SPX: supported by jobs data Increasing unemployment is not suggesting that the economy is in its perfect shape, however, under current circumstances, markets are reacting positively to such news. This comes from their optimistic view that the rise in unemployment would push Fed officials to decrease interest rates and in this sense, create better conditions for the future growth of the economy. The S&P 500 started the previous week at the level of 5.238, however, during the week was in a bullish mood and hit new ATH on Friday's trading session, after posted jobs data in the US. New highest level reached was 5.371. The index is closing the week at the level of 5.346. This was another winning week of the index, with a weekly gain of 1.32%, supported by macro data and also robust corporate earnings, and tech companies.
The week ahead brings FOMC meetings and rate decisions. Also Fed`s economic projections will be discussed. This might bring back some volatility on the markets, especially if Fed Chair Powell communicates any new information that the market did not price in the previous period. However, for the moment, investors' optimism still holds strongly over the course of the US economy in the coming period.
SPY still bullish, holding both the 1D MA50 and MA100.Last time we looked at SPY (May 01, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signal following the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) bottom and we are already well into new All Time High territory:
As you can see, the price hit the top of the short-term (dotted) Channel Up and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This inability to break above the Channel Up, leads us to believe that it will continue to be the dominant pattern, instead of the long-term (blue) Channel Up, and will dictate the price action higher but only gradually.
Another test of the 1D MA100 is possible under those conditions that will allow for a smooth hit on our 555.00 long-term Target.
If however the dashed line holds, it is possible to see an even more aggressive Channel Up materializing, in which case we will move our Target even higher at 580.00, in order to represent a Bullish Leg similar to January - February 2024.
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#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday.
comment: Monday and Tuesday were bullish dojis on the daily chart but bears finally gave up on Wednesday where we did all of the points gained for last week. I said that the bear case was weak at best and that stays the same, until bears will get below the breakout bar and price of 5300. That levels needs to become resistance, for bears to have a shot. I do think the price action speaks more of a leg inside a trading range and we just made a higher high, but if bulls can get above 5400, that take is wrong and we are in W5 which could bring us to 5500/5600.
current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. It’s unclear. We do not get consecutive bull trend bars on the daily chart since first half of May. The daily chart makes higher prices but only through spikes, followed by pull-backs or dojis. This is not behaving like a leg in a strong bull trend.
key levels: 5300 - 5400
bull case: Market refuses to go down but it’s not as bullish as it seems. A deeper pull-back is around the corner imo. Bulls are still in full control and could get another spike up, if market chooses to front-run the events or interpret the news as bullish. Chart is clear imo, W5 can lead to 5500 or higher but for that to happen, bulls need a strong break above this wedge top.
Invalidation is below 5300.
bear case: Bears gave up on Wednesday after trying on Monday and Tuesday. The only thing they had going for them over the last 15 weeks was, that they kept weekly closes below 5300, which should have been bigger resistance. Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, it’s just bullish, despite the up moves getting weaker and bulls only get single spikes and no follow through. No matter if we get a W5 up, market will have a deeper pull-back like the one from April to below 5000. We will at least touch the bull trend line again over the next couple of weeks, if not break it. Bears need consecutive daily closes below 5300 for that to happen.
Invalidation is above 5400.
outlook last week: “ Neutral until bulls get follow through. I do think bulls are favored but we are right at the upper bull flag line and it’s a weak bear trend inside this bull flag until bulls stop the lower lows and make higher highs again. ”
→ Last Sunday we traded 5295 and now we are at 5355. 5260 was my target for the bears and the weekly low as 5246. The lows held and bulls pushed it above 5350, which was my bullish target. So both prices I laid out got hit.
short term: Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday.
medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. —unchanged
current swing trade: Not interested in buying up here, except intraday scalps. If CPI comes in hot, I will initiate new long term shorts.
Chart update: Removed the bull flag, that’s it.
Fed Expected to Hold Rates Amid Mixed Economic IndicatorsFed Expected to Hold Rates Amid Mixed Economic Indicators
Focus on CPI Data and Rate Decision:
Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision are in the spotlight. This follows rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank last week. However, the Fed is not expected to follow suit—at least not immediately.
CPI Growth Expectations:
U.S. CPI growth for May is anticipated to remain steady at 3.4% year-over-year. Energy prices likely declined in May as oil prices edged lower, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to decrease slightly to 3.5% from 3.6% in April. This reflects a more normal 0.2% month-over-month increase. Additionally, home rent price growth is projected to slow, alongside a decrease in the core services ex-rent measure that Fed policymakers closely monitor. In April, this measure increased by 0.4%, down from an average of 0.7% per month over the first quarter of the year.
Inflation Pressure Measures:
The diffusion index, which gauges the breadth of inflation pressures, has shown little improvement recently. Fed policymakers believe the current interest rates are restrictive enough to eventually bring inflation back to the 2% target. Firm U.S. employment numbers in May, including a slight increase in wage growth, indicate no immediate pressure on the Fed to lower rates.
Interest Rate Outlook:
Our base case scenario suggests that the Fed will not be in a position to cut interest rates until December. This assumption hinges on the expectation that economic growth and inflation will slow in the coming months.
Technical Analysis: SP500 Index Outlook
Weekly Chart Analysis:
The SP500 index recently retested its support line at 5260, stabilizing in a bullish zone. This suggests a continuation of the upward trend towards targets of 5423 and 5500, particularly if the CPI comes in below 3.4%.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price remains above 5260, the bullish trend is expected to continue, targeting 5425 and 5500, potentially reaching a new all-time high.
Bearish Scenario:
For a bearish trend to emerge, the price must fall below the support line at 5260, which could then lead to targets of 5040 and 4923.
Key Levels:
Pivot Price: 5320
Support Levels: 5260, 5193, 4930
Resistance Levels: 5423, 5520, 5600
Trading Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance at 5525 and the support at 5260.
Overall Tendency:
The outlook appears bullish.
US30 (Sensitive movements)Technical Analysis
The price movement will be influenced by the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Unemployment rates. Based on current expectations, the price is likely to exhibit a downtrend, though the market may experience random fluctuations.
There is a possibility for a retest up to 38,790, followed by an upward push towards 39,050.
Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the support level at 38790, it could decline to 38580. Sustained trading below this level may lead to a further drop to 38400.
Bullish Scenario: Stability above 38,790 indicates a potential bullish trend, targeting 39,050.
Pivot Line: 38790
Resistance Levels: 39050, 39350, 39700
Support Levels: 38580, 38400, 38290
Today's expected movement range is between the support level at 38400 and the resistance level at 39350
Summary:
Downtrend Expected: Market influenced by NFP and Unemployment rates.
Potential Retest: Price may rise to 38,790.
Upward Movement : Post-retest, the price could push up to 39,050.
previous idea:
SPx (Correction after rally or finished) Technical Analysis of SPx
the price will move under the NFP and the Unemployment rate pressure, so the movement will be huge for the indices.
Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 5260, potentially pushing up to 5302. If the price surpasses this level, it may indicate the start of a new bullish trend of about 5347. but right now as long as the price trades above 5347 means will try to touch 5378 as well.
Bearish Scenario: if the price breaks 5347 means will drop to touch 5320 and then downward should break the support zone which is 5301 to get 5259
Pivot Line: 5347
Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423
Support Levels: 5320, 5302, 5260
Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5301 and the resistance at 5423.
Market Concentration Hits Record Levels with Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL
For the first time since at least 2000, three U.S. stocks—Microsoft Corp., Nvidia Corp., and Apple Inc.—now account for over 20% of the S&P 500's total value, according to Dow Jones Market Data. This means that these three companies alone are worth more than hundreds of other constituents combined, as highlighted by data from Bespoke Investment Group.
Historically, increasing concentration in a few large-cap stocks has often coincided with stronger overall returns for the S&P 500. However, the rapid rise in the values of these tech giants is causing some concern among investors. Even those who have been bullish are starting to feel uneasy about the growing dominance of these few stocks within the index.
Nvidia Drives S&P 500 Market Cap Surge with 36% ContributionThe price has reached our target, as mentioned yesterday, with a gain of +1.20%, approximately $60.
The SPX has recorded a new all-time high and continues to gain. It may retest down to 5347 before pushing up to 5378.
Overall, it could potentially reach 5320 if it stabilizes below 5347. As long as it trades above 5320, an uptrend towards 5423 is expected.
Bullish Scenario: If the price trades above 5347, it will continue its bullish trend toward 5378, and above that, it could reach 5423.
Bearish Scenario: If it stabilizes below 5347, it may drop to 5320. Stabilizing below 5320 on a 1-hour candle could lead to a decline to 5301.
Pivot Line: 5347
Resistance Lines: 5378, 5400, 5423
Support Lines: 5320, 5302, 5260
The price is expected to move between the support level of 5320 and the resistance level of 5423.
previous idea:
Nvidia Drives S&P 500 Market Cap Surge with 36% Contribution in 2024
Shares of US-based chipmaker Nvidia Inc. have had a stellar 2024, soaring nearly 150% and reaching new all-time highs. This impressive performance has significantly contributed to the $4.49 trillion (12%) increase in the S&P 500’s market capitalization, which now stands at $47.16 trillion.
Nvidia’s remarkable gains have been a major driving force behind the S&P 500’s record-breaking achievements. The chipmaker's contribution alone accounts for 36% of the index’s market cap surge this year, highlighting its pivotal role in the broader market’s upward trajectory.
In addition to Nvidia's impact, the S&P 500 has been bolstered by favorable economic indicators, including cooling jobs data, which has alleviated some inflationary pressures and supported continued market growth.
As the S&P 500 hits new records, Nvidia's milestone of reaching a $3 trillion market cap underscores the significant influence of leading tech companies in shaping market trends and driving substantial gains across the board.
Analyzing NVDA's Breakout Patterns and Strategic Trading InsightDuring the last breakout, NVIDIA (NVDA) surged by 300 points before experiencing a sharp decline of 134 points within two days. This current situation bears a striking resemblance to the previous occurrence. Reaching 1282 would position NVDA as the most valuable company globally, contingent upon Microsoft's valuation. I possess additional market capitalization levels for comparison with Microsoft. I anticipate NVDA's final ascent towards becoming the world's most valuable company, followed by a significant pullback.
This scenario echoes Tesla's (TSLA) behavior when it announced its first stock split: a substantial run-up leading into the split date, followed by a rapid 30%+ decline over a few days.
Currently, I hold long call options for the upcoming day. I purchased 1200C on Monday, sold the majority, and retained one position overnight. My plan is to transition to put options when NVDA reaches the 1282-1300 level.
Trade Idea: 1200P 6/14 at 1282.
$SPY update 5%+ correction then retest of highsOriginally I was thinking that we'd see a move to the $480 support after testing the highs, however, because we haven't fallen yet, the chart no longer supports that view.
Instead, I think the most likely scenario is that we fall on or after Wednesday 5/29 back to the low $500 area, then we go back to test the highs at $530.
The retest of $530, will setup the lower high which will start the bear market.
So basically there's one more chance to buy the dip in the low $500s, ride that back to the highs, and then you'll want to be a seller from July onwards.
Let's see how it plays out.
S&P500 Short-term accumulation before strong rise.The S&P500 index (SPX) has turned sideways since practically May 16 and, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), is consolidating. Even though this consolidation is taking place at the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up (Fibonacci 0.0 - 0.236 range), it is similar in some way to the accumulation of April - May 2023 (also a little like November - December 2023), which was again supported by the 1D MA50.
As a result, as long as the price remains above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which provided the crucial Support on April 19 and started the recovery from the -6.65% decline, we expect a similar Channel Up to start when the accumulation ends. Our short-term Target is 5500 (top of 1.5 year Channel Up).
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