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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P500 crashing. Will it benefit from a September RATE CUT??The S&P500 index (SPX, illustrated by the blue trend-line) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 3 weeks and a September Fed Rate Cut is already priced at 95%. But will the index benefit from such action? A detailed look into the past 35 years of recorded Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) price action, shows that when it flattens and rebounds, the Fed steps in and cuts the interest rates (orange trend-line). As you see on that 1M chart though, this hasn't always been beneficial for stocks as especially for September 2007 and January 2001, it took place parallel to the Housing and Dotcom Crises. The Inflation Rate (black trend-line) however seems to be at a low level that is consistent with market bottoms and not tops. As a result, it appears that it is more likely we are in a curve reversal that is consistent with bull trend continuation for the stock market, after short-term corrections, in our opinion either post June 2019 (ignore the COVID crash, which is a once in 100 years non-technical event) or pre-2000. So to answer the original question, we believe there are more probabilities that a September rate cut will do more good to the stock market than harm. Just as a side-note, based on this chart, our sentiment is that the current AI-led rally will be similar to the internet rally of the mid-90s that eventually led to the Dotcom crash of 2000. Your thoughts? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
S&P 500 Faces Deep Retracement Amid Global TensionsThe S&P 500, after reaching an almost all-time high of $5670, has begun a notable retracement. This decline follows a "Red Monday" and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. These factors have contributed to the current downward trend, triggering a deeper correction. From a seasonal analysis perspective, this type of correction is both expected and well-documented. Historically, the S&P 500 has shown a tendency to experience retracements between July and the end of October, regardless of its preceding bullish trend. This pattern suggests that the current decline may not be an anomaly but rather part of a predictable cycle. Investor fears and potential misinterpretations of the broader economic scenario could exacerbate this retracement. The psychological impact of global conflicts and economic uncertainty often leads to heightened market volatility and increased selling pressure. Technically, we have identified key demand areas around $5000 and lower at $4900. These levels could serve as potential support zones where buyers may re-enter the market, providing a possible halt to the decline. Given the current market dynamics and seasonal patterns, we are strategically looking to open a short position, anticipating further downward movement in the S&P 500. In summary, the S&P 500 is undergoing a significant correction influenced by global geopolitical tensions and historical seasonal patterns. While this retracement aligns with expected trends, it underscores the importance of careful market analysis and strategic positioning in response to evolving economic and geopolitical factors. ✅ Please share your thoughts about S&P500 in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:SPXShort
by FOREXN1
1
S&P500 / Continued Volatility in the MarketsContinued Volatility in the Markets Investors should brace themselves for continued market whiplash, as Thursday's trading session indicates that volatility remains a significant concern. The S&P 500 (SPX) has stabilized within a bearish trend, targeting 4923 soon. The current volatility and technical indicators suggest bearish momentum. Bullish Scenario: For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5260, potentially reaching 5291 and 5327. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 5214, the bearish trend is expected to continue toward 5130 and 5040. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5214 - Resistance Levels: 5260, 5281, 5327 - Support Levels: 5130, 5040, 4925 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5215 and 5130. Direction: Downward
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150. Invalidation is below 5090. bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above. Invalidation is above 5280. short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
The doomsday retracementWow, what a week it has been. SPX down 3.5% and up 2.5% the day after. My thought is this backtrack is going to be the biggest retracement for the drop, just like we saw on bitcoin. APPL seems to have DOJ issues, NVIDIA chip issues in Taiwan... all seems to be lining up for potential lower for longer. My only buy this year will be TSLA. More on that. Goldilocks is not going to bring us back to pre-pandemic levels, rate cuts are not going to save the market. The narrative has already changed on July 17th when Trump said he didn't want to invade Taiwan, good luck buying after august.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500Short
by Osmanomics
1
Black Monday 2024? Discussing Current Markets and PositionsDuring Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't make things much worse, but the damage was already done for many with that dramatic vol expansion. As the dust settles a bit more into Tuesday's trading, I wanted to review everything. Enjoy!!!
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
Oil giving us a HINTMarkets keep hitting ATHs, gold doesn't stop hunting for higher highs, and oil underperforms. Anytime price reacts to a historic zone it either sells off or rallies, and then reverses to confirm if the reaction in price was indeed true/false. In this example oil sold off brining us to point 'A' and is now at point 'B' which is the pullback phase also know as a continuation/pause to the overall trend. This happened during the times of 2019 and a larger pattern that lasted from 2011 - 2014. Each time this pattern played out in the oil markets negative outcomes occurred in the rest of markets. To add more confluence to this TA I'm analyzing the MACD distribution patterns (the same way I analyze price action), the agreement and disagreement between the two, and how price action reacts around the EMA lvls. We probably have about a year or less to earn more gains trading crypto and stocks till the market goes bust.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by Nathanl19
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-6 : Caution Over The Next 48 HoursMy research suggests the SPY/QQQ will stall into a sideways upward-sloping price channel over the next 1~2 day before attempting to rally further. Watch this video to learn more. The Top-Resistance Pattern today may prove very accurate if the SPY rolls downward after filling the GAP. Get ready; The Vortex Rally is just starting after this Deep-V Bottom. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick Pattern. Series IIWere you ready or not with recent sell off on financial markets, - this one should be not a surprise. It's been already discussed in publication " 👀 Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick " , that in unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, the Three Black Crows pattern is generally quite common pattern. Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick Pattern Three Black Crows is a continuation pattern, being a term used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that can predict a reversal in an uptrend. Classic candlestick charts show "Open", "High", "Low" and "Close" prices of a bar for a particular security. For markets moving up, the candlestick is usually white, green or blue. When moving lower they are black or red. The Three Black Crows pattern consists of three consecutive long-body candles that opened with a gap above or inside the real body of the previous candle, but ultimately closed lower than the previous candle. Often traders use this indicator in combination with other technical indicators or chart patterns to confirm a reversal. Restrictions on the use of three black crows If the "Three Black Crows" pattern has already shown significant downward movement, it makes sense to be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation or a pullback before further downward movement. The best way to assess whether a stock or other asset is oversold is to look at other technical indicators, such as relative strength index (RSI), moving averages, trend lines, or horizontal support and resistance levels. Many traders typically look to other independent chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakout rather than relying solely on the Three Black Crows pattern. Overall, it is open to some free interpretation by traders. For example, when assessing the prospects of building a pattern into a longer continuous series consisting of “black crows” or the prospects of a possible rollback. In addition, other indicators reflect the true pattern of the three black crows. For example, a Three Black Crows pattern may involve a breakout of key support levels, which can independently predict the start of a medium-term downtrend. Using additional patterns and indicators increases the likelihood of a successful trading or exit strategy. Real example of Three black crows Since there are a little more than one day left before the closing of the third candle in the combination, the candlestick combination (given in the idea) is a still forming pattern, where (i) each of the three black candles opened above the closing price of the previous one, that is, with a small upward gap, (ii ) further - by the end of the time frame the price decreases below the price at close of the previous time frame, (iii) volumes are increased relative to the last bullish time frame that preceded the appearance of the first of the “three crows”, (iv) the upper and lower wicks of all “black crows” are relatively short and comparable with the main body of the candle. Historical examples of the Three Black Crows pattern Here's an example what's happened early in April, 2024 And here's an example what's going on right now in August, 2024 Potentially it may appear again and again. Don't miss it out! As history has repeated itself already, technical graph for S&P500 indicates on potential recovery, up to 5800 points, until November, 2024 (U.S. presidential elections).
SP:SPX
by Pandorra
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-5 - CAUTION: Extreme VolatilityThis video highlights why I believe skilled traders are taking minimal, targeted trades in the current market environment. With the current market volatility as crazy as it is, I don't believe anyone should be swinging for the fences. If you learn anything from my videos over the past few weeks - know this. The #1 rule for trading is to protect capital (at all times). You can be right or wrong while trading. But you have to learn to live to trade another day. This crazy market volatility could have made a small fortune for some people but destroyed others. Until we see the SPY move up above $535-$540, there is still a big risk the markets could fall further. Watch this video to learn more. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
SPx - Stocks Rebound in a Dramatic TurnaroundStocks Rebound in a Dramatic Turnaround Global stocks rallied on Tuesday, partially reversing some of the previous day's significant declines. The market is expected to consolidate between 5,281 and 5,192. This advanced sentence retains the original meaning while using more sophisticated language. Bullish Scenario: For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5320, potentially reaching 5372 and 5409. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades under 5281 means will continue the bearish trend toward 5195 and 5169 Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5260 - Resistance Levels: 5281, 5320, 5372 - Support Levels: 5126, 5192, 5168 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance of 5285 and the support of 5121. previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX Will Go Higher From Support! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for SPX. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,186.63. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,319.70. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SP:SPXLong
by SignalProvider
1
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning. comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways. Invalidation is below 5100. bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend. Invalidation is above 5460. short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P weekly consolidation in progress; bears prove controlLast week was marked by hectic price action in both directions. Bulls failed to set a daily low for two consecutive days (Monday-Tuesday), which logically led to a strong bearish attack. Then something peculiar happened – the price pivoted near the previous low and went up during the overnight session. The market opened with a huge gap on Wednesday, held the open, and even managed to rally further in the regular session. I can only imagine how many short traders, who had done everything right, suffered from this. This price action also confused many long traders, including myself, by making us believe that the weekly consolidation was coming to an end. But Thursday turned the board 180 degrees again with a psychotic bearish move, wiping out more than 2% of the market value. Again, as with the bullish rally, there was no obvious trigger unless you believe that PMI data could wield such importance. At this point, we have the following disposition: 1. The market is still in a weekly uptrend. Until sellers take down the previous major low (491), nothing changes in this regard. 2. Bears have proved strong control over the weekly timeframe. We should respect this. 3. Bears were also able to start monthly consolidation, another sign of their strength. All in all, I wouldn’t consider any long-term “buys” until bulls manage to set a convincing weekly low, even then with caution. Shorting is an option but is very tricky in light of what happened last week. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
Can futures predict market movements?I was wondering if futures can predict market movement. Here's a monthly chart showing two values: * green: the difference between ES futures and SPX, divided by SPX to keep it proportional in a rising market * orange: SPX itself It shows: 1. Futures fluctuate over the 3-month cycle 2. SPX declines after peaks in the difference between ES futures and SPX - see 2001, 2008, 2018. Over-optimism? 3. But there was no peak before the decline in 2022 !? 4. Bulls want to see the difference well below zero - see 2003-04, 2001-17 and 2020-22 5. In 2023 the difference between ES futures and SPX is back to levels seen in 2000 and 2007, which preceded drops in SPX of around 46% and 52% Not trading advice. Do you own research
SP:SPX
by lavoriamo
Are We There Yet? A Market Top ExposeAfter re-calculations and re-assessing, I think I am ready to move forward. I have moved off my position that the 2022 correction was a Supercycle 2 correction and macro market top. I would be on the bandwagon the market is primed to move up indefinitely if not for the massive amounts of debt and cautious discretionary spending. I am still in the camp of prices and wages requiring a re-balance. Companies will have to lower their prices to meet customers at a more realistic price point. The companies that fail to get to that price point will go out of business. I am settling on the side of Supercycle I ending very soon and a larger corrective Supercycle II will take hold next. I am at this position due to the location of important wave 3s in the following chart: My wave 3 indicator at the bottom will paint a light blue background at potential wave 3s. Close gaps between painted backgrounds are common at wave 3 of 3s as is observed by the yellow line around August 2021. The strongest point on the RSI and my wave 3 indicator generally occurs at wave 3 of 3 of 3 (and more levels of 3) which occurred with the white line in January 2018. Additional wave 3 indicators occurred in late 2013 and early 2014 which were likely in the fifth wave of Cycle wave 1. Based on this premise, Cycle wave 3 likely ended in January 2022 and the October low was Cycle wave 4. This would put the market in Cycle wave 5 currently. Cycle wave 1 lasted 5-6 years, while wave 3 did the same. Cycle wave 5 does not have to last long, but there is always a chance it does something similar. Currently, we are just over a year and a half into this wave which may be too quick for it to end. So far we can see a 5 wave structure on the weekly chart. In this 5 wave structure, wave 1 had a wave extension, likely indicating waves 3 and 5 will be shorter in length. The wave 3 indicator has a gap between painted backgrounds in March of this year indicating this was possibly wave 3 and wave 3 of 3. Wave 4 likely bottomed with the low in April. This would place us currently in wave 5. The main question is if all five of these waves are Primary waves inside of the final cycle wave or if these are Intermediate waves inside of the First Primary wave. The pullback in consumer spending has me believing we are closer to the end of a major cycle instead of in the early stages of a multi-year bullish cycle. Additionally, even though the year over year inflation rate is no longer as high of a number, inflation has not actually declined yet as prices continue constantly go up. Furthermore, the year over year inflation rate remains higher than the year over year retail sales numbers. If things were healthy as the talking heads make it seem, retail sales rate should be higher than the rate of inflation as this would show people are spending more money than they are losing to inflation. This is not the case which is why I think a major re-balancing (and yes recession) must still occur. I could be wrong as I have been, or my inaccuracies have been delayed to this point. In trying to identify the current wave 5, I have switched over to the SPX500USD chart to find potential wave 3s and 3 of 3s. The major wave 3s in this fifth wave are identified by the vertical white lines. It looks like the wave extension once again resides in the first wave. Wave 3 of 3 for wave 1 was on May 7th. Wave 3 of 3 of 3 was on June 6, and wave 3 ended on June 12. If these are true, the major fourth wave likely ended at the June 14 low. This once again places us currently in the fifth wave. This is the fifth wave of a wave 5. The question remains as to how large will the next correction be. The current top on the SPX500USD chart is 5530 from June 28th, but it will likely change before week's end with potential decreases in holiday trading volume. On the main chart, I have plotted out potential Fib levels (noted on the right side) for a fifth wave extension if Cycle wave 3 ran from the 2016 low to the January 2022 top. 123.6% of this movement is where we currently are and can be a potential major wave 5 end point. The next Fib of interest would be 138.20% which is near 5967 (indicating much more bullish activity ahead). Regardless, a downturn is likely coming soon. If it starts within the next few weeks, the bottom could occur within the next 2-3 years. If the market blows past the current top, we will likely have a few more years of upward movement followed by a 3-5 year drop thereafter. A large drop now will not be great, but the economies of the country and world could "right themselves" in a quicker manner which would be best for everyone instead of longer and more drawn out. We shall see what happens, as I have been wrong plenty of times in the past. I can keep calling for a drop and will eventually be correct, but the batting average would not even be worthy of the minor leagues.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1