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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but highly extended and statistically due for a significant pullback after 10 consecutive green days. Proceed with extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5308-10 (major) Major Supports: 5272 (major), 5253-56 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5145-50 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5327-31 (major), 5337 (major), 5370-72 (major) Major Resistances: 5395-5400 (major), 5430-35 (major) Trading Strategy Extreme Caution: 10 green days in a row is statistically rare, and a deep pullback could occur at any time. Long Opportunities: Avoid chasing long entries at current levels. Focus on potential bids at 5308-10 only after a dip and strong reaction (ideally, a failed breakdown of the afternoon low). Consider deeper longs at 5272, 5253-56, or lower majors only on strong confirmations (failed breakdowns of lows, etc.). Short Opportunities: While shorting in a strong uptrend is discouraged, those comfortable with counter-trend trades may consider the 5370-72 zone, but only after a bounce/failed breakdown. Proceed with extreme caution. Prioritize Preservation: Focus on protecting profits and minimizing risk exposure in this highly uncertain environment. Avoid overtrading and wait for high-probability setups. Bull Case Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES needs to hold above 5308-10 on any dips, with a new base forming between 5308 and 5331. This would be the most bullish scenario, leading to a potential test of 5337, 5348, then 5370-72. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5308-10 could trigger a substantial dip. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns at 5272, 5253-56, and lower major supports for potential long entries if the market rebounds. If 5308-10 fails, consider shorts after a bounce/failed breakdown at 5300. News: Top Stories for May 16th, 2024 📈 S&P 500 Hits All-Time High: Yesterday, the S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high, closing at 5,253 points. This reflects investor confidence and market optimism driven by favorable economic indicators and expectations of accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. 🌐 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are preparing for their spring meetings amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. These meetings will address global economic issues, including conflict impacts and strategic economic adjustments. 🏦 UN Economic Update: The United Nations will launch the mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024. This update will assess global economic conditions, highlighting challenges such as high interest rates, debt difficulties, and geopolitical risks. 📊 Wall Street Analyst Revisions: Wall Street analysts are revising their forecasts for the S&P 500 due to the market's unexpected strength. This reflects the dynamic nature of market expectations and investor agility in navigating the evolving financial landscape. 🌍 Critical Minerals Demand: Global economic discussions are focusing on managing the demand for critical minerals essential for low-carbon technologies. This ties into broader sustainability goals and the economic opportunities and challenges for developing countries.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
SHILLER P/E RATIO ... Went Higher than 1929!Only Twice in 150 Years of US Equities has the Shiller PE ratio gone higher than the 1929 TOP 2000 & 2022 The Shiller PE is useful as it smooths out the PE ratio over a 10 year average ... very useful for forecasting. The financial markets have been perverted & all know this. The #FED can only print and save your Assets after a financial crisis appears on the scene and when #DEFLATION takes hold. They're are actively rugging the markets The FED always creates volatile markets the exact opposite of their mandate As this is what their shareholder actually want.
SShort
by BallaJi
SPX 5500 BY 2025 ? REASONS WHY !!! Optimistic Market Forecasts: Analysts and strategists, such as those from Deutsche Bank and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO, have made bullish predictions for the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank's forecast for the S&P 500 to reach 5,100 in 2024, and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield anticipates the S&P to reach as high as 5,500 points by the end of 2024. These forecasts indicate a strong belief in the market's potential to continue its upward trend. Strong Earnings and Valuations: The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 of 25.7 is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks, which could be a positive sign for further market growth. Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has already hit 23 new records in 2024 and has been performing above average historical years. This indicates strong market momentum and investor confidence. Cumulative Weight of Top Stocks: The cumulative weight of the top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 has hit a 50-year high. This indicates that the market's performance is being significantly influenced by the performance of a small number of large-cap companies, which could potentially drive the index higher if these companies continue to perform well. Market Resilience and Recovery: The market has shown resilience and recovery from the economic downturn, with the S&P 500 already up by 9.6% this year, which is above the average year since 1950. This resilience could be a sign of continued growth throughout the year. Positive Outlook from Analysts: Analysts like CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall predict that the S&P 500 will hit 5,400 by year-end and 5,610 within the next 12 months, indicating a positive outlook for the market's performance. Potential Rate Cuts: The expectation of rate cuts by the European Central Bank could provide a boost to the global economy and the U.S. markets, including the S&P 500. Positive Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment seems to be positive, with a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 from various analysts and strategists. This positive sentiment could drive further investment and growth in the market. Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector has been a leading performer, soaring 50%, indicating strong growth in this sector, which could help drive the S&P 500 higher. Economic Data Surprises: The U.S. economy has been showing positive surprises in economic data throughout 2023, suggesting that the economy is stronger than expected, which could support the market's growth.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought after 9 consecutive green days. Expect high volatility and the potential for a substantial rug pull triggered by the CPI data release. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5257 (major), 5215-17 (major), 5208 (major) Major Supports: 5162 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5096-5100 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5272 (major), 5302 (major), 5329-32 (major) Major Resistances: 5362-64 (major), 5398-5402 (major) Trading Strategy Expect Volatility: Prioritize capital preservation during the CPI release and limit your trading activity. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5257 (if not already broken) or 5215-17 as potential long entry points after a CPI sell-off. Consider the 5162 and 5133-36 zones for deeper longs, but only on quick recoveries and failed breakdowns. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the unpredictable nature of CPI day, avoid shorting unless the market reacts very negatively to the data. Monitor potential back-tests of 5302 or 5329-32, but proceed with extreme caution. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5217-20 holds after the CPI dip, there's potential for continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range, setting up for a later breakout towards 5285, 5294, and 5302+. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5257 (extremely unlikely) to continue upwards with minimal correction. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5217-20, especially if the CPI news is negative, triggers a larger dip. Monitor failed breakdowns at 5162 and 5133-36 for potential long entries. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📉 U.S. April CPI Report Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating a slight moderation in inflation with headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.6%. This data is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). 📊 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The CPI data implies a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments. Despite a slight decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading to market uncertainty about potential rate cuts (Federal Reserve). 🛢️ Sector-Specific Inflation: Significant contributors to the CPI increase included gasoline and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 70% of the monthly rise. Gasoline prices increased by 2.8% in April due to seasonal factors and changes in refinery practices (USA Today). 📈 Global Inflation Trends: The International Monetary Fund projects a global inflation rate decline to 5.8% for 2024, down from 6.8% in 2023. This trend is attributed to tighter monetary policies and a drop in energy prices, though regional variations persist, with hyperinflation in Venezuela and lower rates in developed economies (IMF). 🌐 Market and Trade Impact: High inflation rates can increase export prices, making goods less competitive globally, while countries with lower inflation may see more stable consumer prices and better trade balances. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to influence these dynamics (UNCTAD).
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
FEDERAL DEBT priced in the DOW JONES is too HIGH!Those dollars that the US government owes must be inflated away! As paying back 33 Trillion dollars is not feasible in today's version of dollars. So they must be paid in even more worthless dollar currency units. If the US government stops spending they will send the US economy into a recession. They must continue to pump money into the economy and the stock market. The con job that inflation is under control is a lie.. and we will continue to see higher prices the rest of the decade albeit at a slower rate. BUT even 2% annual inflation compounded will erode purchasing power quickly as we have seen in the past. And I have charted before. I believe we will continue to see the stock market ramp up the next two quarters before taking a summer break. The underlying hidden to most, inflation trend, will continue to inflate revenues and earnings for most stocks going forward. The bottom line is that Inflation is a FRAUD perpetuated on the people by the Government. They print and spend the money first, and then the workers get it after beingTAXED and after prices have gone up. Then they TAX you on the gain in asset prices! :) So if u can invest in assets that are in wrapped up Tax free vehicles --- seek those out. #Crypto can be a way to supercharge your returns for periods of time, but come with inherent, built in volatility --- most people walk away with, what could have been stories -- rather than life changing returns
FRED:GFDEBTN
by BallaJi
3
New Volume Footprint option on TradingViewHi all, This is the first (stream replacement) educational video with a very quick overview of volume. Tradingview just released the new Footprint Beta tool. It's something I asked them for a long time ago, so I am glad it's finally here! In this video I cover the time-price-opportunity tool as well as visible and fixed range. Leading into footprint. This is not a deep dive, it's more an intro to and how these things come together. If there is enough interest in this idea I will create a sequence based on trading volume in depth. Thanks for watching! See you on the next stream/idea.
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COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but cautious given the 8 consecutive green days. The risk of a sudden pullback increases as the market becomes more overbought. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235 (major), 5221-17 (major), 5210 (major) Major Supports: 5192 (major), 5174-76 (major), 5144-47 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5262 (major), 5272 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5327-29 (major), 5400-05 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The 5235-5262 zone is a chop area, making it difficult to trade with high conviction. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5235 or 5210 for long entries. Prioritize reactions at these levels, ideally with quick recoveries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5192, 5174-76. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. For those inclined to counter-trend shorting, consider 5272 or 5302 as potential levels, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Uptrend Continuation: As long as 5235 holds (or any breakdown is quickly recovered), the bullish trend remains intact. Focus on a potential base building within the 5235-5262 range, followed by an upside breakout targeting 5272, 5290, and ultimately 5302. Ultra Bull Case: No dip below 5235, with continued basing above it. Reclaiming 5245 could be a signal to add exposure, but only with acceptance and no break above 5262. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5235 would trigger a potential correction. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5231, 5221-17, and 5210 for short entry opportunities, but prioritize a more significant level like 5192 for confirmation and to avoid traps. News: Top Stories for May 14th, 2024 China's Strategic Bond Sale: China initiates a substantial bond sale, aiming for $140 billion to combat its property crisis and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects. Russia's Economic Resilience: Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy shows unexpected strength, with GDP projected to outpace the U.S. This resilience is attributed to increased non-oil revenues and strategic fiscal management. Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Western car manufacturers are flocking to Indonesia for its nickel resources, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Indonesia's growing importance in the global EV supply chain. Meme Stock Mania Returns: The meme stock phenomenon resurges, with GameStop and AMC Entertainment experiencing significant price volatility following social media activity by influential traders. Global Economic Concerns: Leaders from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Georgia express apprehensions about the requirements for joining international economic communities, potentially impacting regional economic policies. China's Bond Sale and Global Implications: China's upcoming bond sale aims to bolster its economy and could influence global interest rates, foreign exchange markets, and international bond market dynamics. Meme Stock Resurgence and Market Volatility: The return of "Roaring Kitty" to social media sparks a renewed frenzy in meme stocks, leading to dramatic price swings in GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Will soaring commodities lead to a surprise in tomorrow's data?The inflation rate, CPI, and retail sales for the previous month will be released tomorrow. The general market expectations are that the inflation rate advanced higher by 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY in April 2024. The CPI is forecasted to come in at 313.75, and retail sales are expected to soar by 0.4% MoM, slowing down from an increase of 0.7% in March 2024. However, with accelerating inflation in the first three months of this year and commodities soaring across the board in April 2024, the question lingers whether investors are due to be surprised once again with tomorrow’s data. Change in April 2024 Aluminium = 8.4% Copper = 11.5% Cocoa = -6.5% Gold = 2.4% Iron ore = 8.4% Silver = 5.3% Steel = 4.9% West Texas Intermediate crude oil = -2.2% Change since the start of 2024 Aluminium = 7.5% Copper = 23.6% Cocoa = 77.8% Gold = 13.7% Iron ore = -18.7% Silver = 20.2% Steel = –11.9% West Texas Intermediate crude oil = 9.62% Technical conditions Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Monthly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
2
Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought and due for a pullback. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains over chasing further upside. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5236 (major), 5225, 5213 (major) Major Supports: 5202-04 (major), 5186 (major), 5155 (major), 5112-15 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5261 (major), 5272 (major), 5303 (major) Major Resistances: 5329 (major), 5354 (major), 5398-5400 (major) Trading Strategy Pullback Anticipation: Expect a pullback after 7 consecutive green days. Be prepared for a sudden reversal and adjust your strategy accordingly. Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5236, then 5213 for long entries. Look for bounces and reclaims, especially if price dips below 5209. Consider deeper longs at major supports (5186, 5155) only if the market shows substantial weakness. Short Opportunities: While avoiding shorting green candles and breaking trends is advised, monitor back-tests of 5272 and 5303 for potential short entries. Proceed with extreme caution and be prepared for sharp reversals. Consolidation Zone: Focus on the 5236-5261 range as a potential consolidation zone. Monitor the price action closely within this range for clues about the next directional move. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5236 holds, continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range is likely. This would suggest a pause before a potential breakout toward 5272, 5285-88, and ultimately 5303. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5236 and continue building a base overnight for the most bullish scenario. This could trigger a move higher without a significant dip. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5236 triggers a dip, targeting 5213 initially, with potential to extend to the 5186-5115 zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 13th, 2024 1. Corporate Earnings Surge Details: A notable rise in Q1 2024 earnings has been reported among S&P 500 companies, with a majority exceeding analysts' expectations. Impact: This upsurge signals a strong corporate sector potentially boosting market confidence and influencing stock prices. 2. Central Bank Stances on Interest Rates Context: With persistent inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are cautiously maintaining current interest rates. Implications: This strategy aims to control inflation without disrupting economic stability, reflecting a delicate balance in monetary policy. 3. IMF's Global Growth Forecast Forecast: The IMF projects a global growth rate of 3% for 2024, with potential long-term economic challenges. Significance: This modest growth underscores global economic sluggishness, necessitating strategic economic measures. 4. Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impact Developments: Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, affecting global markets and commodity prices. Consequences: These geopolitical issues are critical for financial stability, influencing both market volatility and investor sentiment. 5. Key Economic Indicators Release Upcoming Data: Major economic indicators like consumer price indexes and retail sales are scheduled for release this week. Relevance: These indicators are crucial for assessing the economic health of major economies and will influence forthcoming monetary policy decisions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
R2F Weekly Analysis - 13th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it! If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss, the TLDR is that I am still bullish Dollar and waiting for the manipulation and reversal back to the upside, potentially this week with CPI/PPI/FOMC red folder news occurring. All my analysis of other pairs revolve around this. I did not go to the sub 4H timeframe in this video, but how I do my analysis on the higher timeframes is the same as how I would look for entries on the lower timeframes. The only difference is that I would consider the ICT Killzones and weekday tendencies along my usual techniques. Hit me up if you want to learn more or are struggling to find your footing and need help. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
MICROSOFT 460 BY 2025 ?TOP 3 REASONS WHY !! Earnings Growth: One of the most important factors for any growth Astock is earnings growth1. Microsoft has a historical EPS growth rate of 21.3%, and it’s projected to grow 13.2% this year, outpacing the industry average. This consistent and robust earnings growth is a strong indicator of the company’s financial health and future prospects, which could drive its stock price higher. Cloud Services: Microsoft Azure, the company’s cloud platform, has been a significant driver of growth. Demand for cloud infrastructure services is higher than ever, as organizations seek digital solutions in a post-COVID-19 world. With Azure’s revenue increasing by 48%, it’s expected to exceed both Office and Windows in annual revenue by next year. This growth in the cloud sector represents a massive opportunity for Microsoft and could be a major factor in boosting its stock price. Productivity and Gaming: Microsoft’s productivity and business processes segment, which includes Office 365, has shown solid results with consistent revenue growth. The transition of Office to a subscription service has been beneficial for Microsoft’s core software business2. Additionally, the gaming sector, particularly Xbox, is another area where Microsoft is seeing significant growth2. With the successful launch of the Xbox Series X and Series S, and the rapid growth of the Xbox Game Pass subscription service, the future looks bright for Microsoft’s gaming business.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Meta Stock Could Reach $520 by July 2024 Earnings ReportNASDAQ:META Why Meta Stock Could Reach $520 by July 2024 Earnings Report Meta Platforms, Inc., formerly known as Facebook, has been making significant strides in its business operations, which could potentially drive its stock price to $520 by the time of its July 2024 earnings report. Here are some key reasons: 1. Strong Performance in Q1 2024 Meta reported a robust first quarter in 2024, with revenue soaring 27% to $36.4 billion compared to the same period last year1. Net income also saw a substantial increase of 117% to $12.4 billion. This strong financial performance indicates a healthy growth trajectory for the company. 2. Significant Investment in AI CEO Mark Zuckerberg has announced plans for significant investment in artificial intelligence2. While this initially caused a 12% slump in the META stock price, it’s a strategic long-term investment that could potentially drive future growth and profitability. 3. Positive Stock Forecasts Analysts have made positive predictions about Meta’s stock price. For instance, WalletInvestor forecasts a price of $517.58, while TipRanks predicts a price of $547.45. These predictions suggest a potential for the stock price to reach $520. 4. Expected Growth in Q2 2024 Meta’s CFO has projected total revenue for Q2 2024 to be in the range of $36.5-39 billion. This expected growth could further boost investor confidence and drive up the stock price. 5. Long-Term Growth Potential Meta has demonstrated a long-term growth potential, with its stock price rising 110% from $209.40 to $441.38 in the 12 months leading up to April 25, 2024. This trend suggests that the company has the potential to reach the $520 mark by July 2024.
NASDAQ:METALong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
COSTCO 820 Costco’s stock price has seen a significant increase recently, and there are several reasons behind this rise to $820: Strong Sales Performance: Costco posted net sales of $19.8 billion for April, up 7.1% from $18.48 billion in the year-earlier period1. Net sales for the fiscal 35 weeks were $166.44 billion, up 7% from $155.62 billion a year earlier. Shift in Consumer Behavior: Due to rising restaurant prices, many consumers are opting to buy groceries and cook at home instead. This shift in consumer behavior is benefiting grocery businesses like Costco. Membership Model: Costco’s membership model is also a significant contributor to its success. The warehouse club’s members pay $60 a year for a basic Gold membership or $120 for an Executive membership, which comes with 2% cash back up to $1,000. Analyst Upgrades: After reviewing Costco’s strong April sales data, analysts have raised their price targets for the company. For instance, TheStreet Pro’s Chris Versace raised his price target on Costco to $830 from $800. Similarly, Loop Capital analysts raised the firm’s price target on Costco to $840 from $820. Earnings Expectations: Costco is expected to report earnings on May 30, 2024, for the fiscal quarter ending May 2024. The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $3.69, which is higher than the reported EPS for the same quarter last year ($3.43). This positive earnings expectation could also be driving the stock price up.
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
1
BABA GO UP AFTER EARNINGS ? $89.94Unpacking Alibaba’s Stock Rise to $89.94 Alibaba, the multinational conglomerate specializing in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology, has seen its stock price climb to $89.94. This significant increase is a result of a multitude of factors that have positively influenced the company’s valuation. Earnings Performance: Alibaba has been reporting solid earnings, which have exceeded market expectations. This strong financial performance has been a key driver in boosting investor confidence and, consequently, the stock price. Market Position: Alibaba’s dominant position in the Chinese and global e-commerce market has played a crucial role in its stock performance. The company’s vast user base and extensive product offerings have made it a formidable player in the industry. Diversification: Alibaba’s diversification into various sectors such as cloud computing, digital media, and entertainment has opened up new revenue streams, contributing to its financial growth and stock price increase. Innovation: The company’s continuous investment in innovation and technology has kept it at the forefront of the digital economy. This commitment to innovation has not only enhanced its product offerings but also improved operational efficiency. Regulatory Environment: Despite the regulatory challenges, Alibaba has managed to navigate the landscape effectively. The company’s ability to adapt to regulatory changes has been viewed positively by investors. In conclusion, Alibaba’s rise to a stock price of $89.94 can be attributed to its strong earnings performance, dominant market position, diversification strategy, commitment to innovation, and effective navigation of the regulatory environment. These factors collectively contribute to the company’s robust financial health and promising growth prospects. As Alibaba continues to build on these strengths, it is well-positioned for future success.
NYSE:BABALong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with a cautious undertone after a significant multi-day rally. Expect potential profit-taking and a reduction in aggressive buying activity. A period of consolidation is highly likely. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235-37, 5228, 5209 (major), 5203 (major) Major Supports: 5177-79 (major), 5155 (major), 5120 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5268-72 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5326-28 (major), 5395 (major) Trading Strategy Capital Preservation Focus: After a strong multi-day rally, prioritize protecting your gains. Adopt a defensive posture and consider reducing position sizes. Limited Long Opportunities: Due to the overbought conditions and the potential for a pullback, look for very selective long entries if at all. Focus on failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying dips at major support levels, with 5209 or failed breakdowns at 5203 offering potential opportunities. Short Opportunities: While your personal trading rules discourage shorting green candles and breaking trends, monitor back-tests of 5246 and 5268-72 for potential short entries with tight stop losses. Proceed with extreme caution. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, avoid emotional trading, and prioritize minimizing risk exposure. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5203-5209 zone remains crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Holding above this level would indicate a continuation of the breakout, targeting 5246, then 5268-72. Ultra Bullish Scenario (Unlikely): A parabolic move overnight pushing through 5246 would be required for a continuation without a proper dip. Monitor overnight basing above 5228 and below 5246 for clues about strength. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5203 would signal a potential pullback and retest of lower supports. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 10th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: U.S. Market Performance: Modest gains seen in U.S. stock indices, reflecting optimism despite mixed April performance. European and Asian Market Dynamics: Positive movements noted in European and Asian markets, driven by solid economic data and central bank easing. Impact of Economic Indicators: U.S. labor market easing influences market expectations regarding potential rate cuts. Sector-Specific Movements: Technology sector experiences volatility, while energy sector sees potential stabilization. Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails amid anticipation of rate cuts and easing inflation, alongside geopolitical risks and trade negotiations. Assessment of Inflation and Interest Rate Policies: Global Inflation Trends: Persistent inflationary pressures challenge central banks' efforts to meet targets. Central Banks' Stance: Cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments observed globally. Economic Implications: High interest rates may slow down consumer spending and business investments. Inflation Expectations and Future Policies: Central banks closely monitor inflation expectations to inform future policy decisions. Impact on Global Economic Stability: Corporate Financial Developments and Deals: Companies announce financial results and engage in strategic transactions, reflecting market dynamics and regulatory changes. Forward-Looking Corporate Statements: Companies adjust strategies to navigate current market conditions and regulatory environments effectively.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
S&P Bulls prove their controlThe strong close last week indicates a shift in control to the buyers. They managed to close above the previous week’s high, establishing a weekly higher low and confirming the daily uptrend. Currently, the bulls have control across all key timeframes: the price is trending upward on the hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The only challenge they face is on the monthly timeframe, where bears have initiated consolidation; however, this is not a critical issue. It's plausible that the bulls might either retrace the entire bearish wave or, more likely, close May as an inside bar, setting a price equilibrium that could persist throughout the summer. Given this scenario, the current position might not be ideal for a long entry since we are in the middle of April’s range. If you're considering buying, it would be wiser to wait for a pullback that could provide a more favorable opportunity. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
SPX500 approaching overhead resistanceThe SPX500 has moved into an area where there is overhead resistance. If the short-term momentum holds with the stochastic remaining in its upper quartile, the index should overcome the resistance. However, a swift turnaround in the stochastic will see the overhead resistance holding out. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) : CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) : Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
1
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with increasing uncertainty as the market enters a consolidation phase. Expect choppy trading within a defined range. Prioritize patience and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5203, 5194 (major) Major Supports: 5177 (major), 5155 (major), 5131-36 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5213 (major), 5219 (major), 5229-33 (major) Major Resistances: 5246 (major), 5263-66 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Mode: Recognize that the market has shifted from a strong trending environment to a choppy consolidation phase. Adapt your trading strategy accordingly, focusing on small gains and disciplined risk management. Long Opportunities: Focus on failed breakdowns at 5203 or 5194 for long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying the retests of the 5177, 5155, and 5131-36 breakout zone or knife-catches for quick scalps. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the inherent risk of shorting against strength in a bull market, avoid aggressive short positions. Monitor back-tests of 5229-33 or 5263-66 for potential short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Overtrading within a tight range can lead to losses. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5194 level and ideally the 5131-36 breakout zone remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above the lower range boundary would indicate a healthy consolidation and base for potential continuation higher. Base Building and Rebound: A period of consolidation within the 5194-5219 range followed by a rebound off the lower zone would set the stage for further advances, targeting 5229-33, 5246, then 5263-66. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5194, more significantly below 5177 would signal a deeper pullback and a potential retest of the 5131-36 breakout zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 9th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: Varied Performance: Mixed responses observed in Asian markets; Wall Street experiences second consecutive day of lull. Influence of Geopolitical Events: Ongoing geopolitical tensions impact investor confidence and market stability. Recovery Post-COVID-19: Economic recovery contributes to increased positive correlation among global stock markets. Technological Advancements and Stock Market Analysis: Complex Network Analysis: Studies highlight increased interconnectedness among global stock markets. Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical unrest continues to pose risks, affecting capital flows and commodity markets. Future Outlook: Predicted trends focus on sustained recovery and nuanced understanding of market interdependencies. Overview of International Trade and Currency Fluctuations: Currency Fluctuation Dynamics: Currency values influence international trade competitiveness and economic policies. Role of Economic Indicators: Inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth significantly affect currency valuation. Risk Management Strategies: Businesses employ hedging strategies to mitigate currency fluctuation risks. Government Policies: Monetary and fiscal policies play crucial roles in stabilizing currency values. Impact of Central Banks' Policies on Global Economy: Economic Stabilization: Central banks manipulate monetary policies to address economic fluctuations and crises. Influence on Inflation and Interest Rates: Adjustments in interest rates affect global economic conditions. Effects on Financial Markets: Central bank policies directly impact asset prices and investment flows. Response to Economic Shocks: Central banks provide monetary lifelines during economic crises to stabilize financial systems.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro