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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the ath. comment : Both sides made money today so I expect them to do the same tomorrow. If anything I see the chances of another bull breakout higher than a break below. We have clear support at 6115 and until this is strongly broken, look for longs near it. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6115 - 6200 (contract change, so prices are much higher compared to Monday) bull case: Bulls are still buying the dips and making money. They prevent any stronger selling and that is why most will expect a break above the 1h 20ema tomorrow and the bear trend line. 6150 is their target for tomorrow. Depending on what Jpow delivers, we could melt up again but it’s a gamble I am not willing to take tomorrow. Many bulls also bought this because it’s close to the daily 20ema. We have closed once below it in the past 6 weeks. Invalidation is below 6100. bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. They make money scalping but that’s about it. How likely is acceleration downwards? Very unlikely. Most bullish weeks of the year and markets are at peak euphoria. Invalidation is above 6200. short term: Neutral. FOMC tomorrow and if anything I expect bulls to trade back up to 6180 going into it. 6115 - 6140 is neutral. Bearish only below 6100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling since Globex or buying previous support 6115. Bears kept it below the 1h 20ema which had 3 great short opportunities today but bulls also had decent bounces off 6115.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P500 entering a new Bull Cycle according to the Dollar IndexThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 2022 market bottom, as it recovered from the Inflation Crisis of 2022. Despite the All Time Highs (ATH) that it is currently trading at, we have strong evidence based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that it is entering a new, more structured Bull Cycle. As you can see on this cross chart analysis on the 1W time-frame, the market has been on a multi-year uptrend with clear Phases, ever since the March 2009 bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. At the same time, the DXY (blue trend-line) initiated its own Channel Up. Every time the DXY bottomed, the S&P500 transitioned from the more aggressive, recovery phase (blue Arc pattern) of the Bear Cycle to a more structured (green) Channel Up. As long as the DXY remains below its (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line, the uptrend of the Channel Up is being extended. Once broken, the stock market starts to form a top, which is natural as a strong/ expensive dollar is far from ideal for buying risky assets like stocks. In any case, it appears that the DXY bottomed in late September 2024 and rebounded aggressively. This is rebound is the exact behavior it has when the previous two (green) Channel Up patterns started. As a result, we believe that the S&P500 has ahead of it around 4 years of growth within this Channel Up, whose pull-backs/ corrections will be the cyclical buy opportunities. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
S&P 500 Rally: Why a 5k Target Might Be More Likely Than 7kSince November of last year, the SP:SPX has surged by 50%, and if we look at the gains from this year alone, we're seeing around a 30% increase. Additionally, the rise from August is 20% which is significant in just five months. Considering the rapid pace of these increases, especially for such a major index, it gives me the impression that the S&P 500 may be overstretched. Statistically, such strong rallies either follow a deep bear market or precede a significant pullback. Since we haven't experienced a strong bear market recently, I believe a correction could be on the horizon. Technically, the market remains in an uptrend, but the price action from August has been in steps. This type of movement often signals distribution and a potential reversal. In conclusion, while a new all-time high by the end of the year is almost certain, I'm not overly optimistic about the long-term outlook. A pullback to around 5,000 seems more likely to me than a rally to 7,000.
SP:SPXShort
by Mihai_Iacob
Why on Earth anyone invests in the Australian Shares? (SPX)The last 16 years. The US S&P 500 index (in red) Vs the Australian All Ordinaries index. The US broad market index up by 607%, the Australian index up by 58%. The US S&P 500 index is a broad measure of the top 500 companies in the US, and the All Ordinaries likewise from the largest 500 companies listed in Australia. The US represents about 25% of Global GDP Vs Australia at 1.6%. The US S&P500 index companies also earn about 40% of their earnings from outside America (due to their Global reach). Their companies also lead in tech, banking, defense etc. Why does anyone invest solely in the Australian share markets? The Australian index is very narrowly weighted to the big 4 banks (mostly leveraged on Australian residential real estate), and the large miners (leveraged on the commodity cycle). Both very narrow, non-diversified risky strategies, and clearly over the long term a crap investment compared to the breath of risk and performance outcomes of the US multinational giants of expansion and leading edge innovation.
INDEX:AORDLong
by platinum_growth
S&P500: Channel Up ready to explode to 6,175S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.112, MACD = 49.220, ADX = 50.110) as it is extending August's Channel Up. The 4H RSI is forming an Arc pattern that is much like the below 4H MA50 consolidation of October 1st - 8th. After that was completed, the price rallied to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension to form a HH on the Channel Up. The 1.786 Fib was the target of the next bullish wave as well. Consequently, we are long on SPX, aiming again for that Fib (TP = 6,175). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
Deep short for SPY? My target is at 510, here why!Christmas Eve Rally? - Not quite. Trump Trade? - Hardly. So, what’s driving the market higher, and where is SPY headed next? Investor sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections seems to echo the euphoria of 2016, raising hopes for a similar post-election rally. Themes like tax cuts, protectionism, and trade wars are fueling optimism for U.S. equities. But let’s not get carried away. The economic and geopolitical landscapes today are vastly different, and so is the narrative. The “Superman” Trump of 2016 no longer holds the same sway over markets. The post-COVID stock market rally was buoyed by an unprecedented flood of liquidity. Based on our analysis, those excess dollars are nearly spent. Furthermore, the global economic outlook bears little resemblance to the relatively stable environment of 2016. While the Democrats’ recent performance metrics provide Powell with ample material to champion a “resilient economy,” the bigger question remains: Is the U.S. stock market truly worth its current valuations? We’ll delve into the overvaluation of the #SPY and #SPX indices in greater detail in the coming updates. For now, you can pay close attention to technical analysis, identifying key peaks and potential correction levels.
AMEX:SPYShort
by gorgevorgian
SPX: in green to end a year?A week after the S&P 500 reached a new ATH, the market slowed down a bit during the previous week. The new ATH has been tested for a potential for further move toward the upside, however, there has not been enough market strength, so the index reverted just a bit to the downside. The lowest weekly level reached was 6.030 points. The market's beloved tech companies were traded with a modest negative sentiment, except TSLA. A brand new star of the week was company Broadcom, which surged 24% for the week, after the company published that its AI-generated revenue soared by an incredible 220%. Analysts are noting high probability that the equity market will continue to head toward the upside till the year end. Such sentiment will be supported by the expected Fed rate cut of 25 bps on December 18th. However, they are also noting that the switch from large caps toward the small cap companies has been occurring for some time now, and will continue in the future period, supported by the environment of decreased interest rates.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
S&P is Shaping a Bull Flag While Awaiting the FED DecisionLast week was characterized by increasing selling pressure that hindered upward price progression but failed to trigger any substantial pullback. The market has not even retested the previous consolidation zone ( 598-601 ), which highlights the weakness of the sellers. Looking at the daily chart, the recent price action resembles a bull flag, favoring a continuation of the upward trend. For sellers to demonstrate their strength, they must not only break this pattern to the downside but also breach the 598 support level and drive the price further down to 594 . Much will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, alongside the release of key economic data. The most favorable outcome for the bulls would be a 0.25% rate cut. Any other scenario could spark concerns—either about an impending recession (if the cut is larger) or about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment (if the cut is absent). The market outlook remains bullish; however, the current price level is not ideal for new long positions. Buyers would be better served by waiting for a more meaningful pullback (e.g., to the 600 level), provided it is not driven by a negative shift in economic sentiment.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook. Quote from last week: comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it. comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late key levels: 6000 - 6300 bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate. Invalidation is above 6120. outlook last week: short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not. → Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook. short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
S&P500 INDEX Technical Analysis & Outlook Ahead of Fed DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis The market is approaching a key week with potential volatility driven by the Fed Rate Decision and GDP data. Here's a breakdown of the scenarios: Bullish Scenario: Continuation of the Uptrend: Key Levels: - Breakout Support: 6022 - Pivot Point: 6058 - Resistance Line: 6099 and 6143. Conditions for Bullish Continuation: - Price must remain above 6022 (Breakout Support Line). - Stabilization above the 6099 resistance will confirm upward momentum toward 6143 (next resistance). - This move would support a continuation of the uptrend toward a new ATH. Fed Rate Impact: - If the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, the market may interpret this as dovish, fueling bullish sentiment and risk appetite. Bearish Scenario: Continuation of Downtrend: Key Levels: - Breakout Support Line: 6022 - First Support: 5971 - Next Supports: 5932 and 5863. Conditions for Bearish Reversal: - Price must break and close below 6022 on a 4-hour candle. - A break below this level opens the door to the next support at 5971. - Further bearish momentum could drive the price toward the Strong Support Zone around 5863. Fed Rate Impact: - If the Fed holds rates steady at 4.75% or signals hawkish intentions (e.g., no future rate cuts), bearish momentum may build due to reduced liquidity expectations. Trend Outlook: - Uptrend Continuation: Above 6022 and confirmed by a breakout above 6099. - Downtrend Continuation: Below 6022, targeting 5971 and lower levels. Key Summary: Bullish Confirmation: Hold above 6022 and break above 6099. Bearish Signal: Break and close below 6022, with lower targets of 5971 and 5932. Fed & GDP Impact: Monitor Fed decision for rate cuts (bullish) or no change (bearish).
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
$NNE Flagging and Ready to Resume Uptrend?NASDAQ:NNE may be one for your watchlist. This one has had a nice uptrend since its IPO sell-off and has put in a series of Higher Lows (HL). It has just tested the 50 DMA (red) and has a nice green hammer candle off that area. It looks to be struggling with the 10 and 20 DMA’s right now. I have an alert set on the upper downtrend line. Should that trigger, I will go to a lower time frame chart to look for a good entry with a tight stop. There could be resistance at the AVWAP from the most recent high which is something to be aware of. In summary I am looking for this one to continue its uptrend after this shake-out and consolidation. All TBD.
NASDAQ:NNELong
by jaxdog
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-12: Breakaway PatternToday's video goes into detail related to the general SPY/QQQ trending and the continued potential for a price Anomaly Event. It is likely that the markets continue a Santa Rally phase - attempting to push higher throughout the end of 2024 and into 2025. I want everyone to understand that the anomaly event I keep suggesting may happen is an outlier event. It would be driven by some news, political, financial or other type of market event. If that event does not happen, then the markets will likely continue to push higher and higher. So, remember, the markets want to push higher into the typical Santa Rally. My Anomaly event would be a potential outlier event - driving a moderate pullback in price. Gold and Silver should move into a moderate topping pattern today - possibly pulling downward a big. This would be a goo setup for the next rally phase higher. That rally may come tomorrow or into early next week. Bitcoin is trapped within a consolidation range. The rally yesterday was nice to see, but right now we are seeing Bitcoin struggle below resistance. So, we still need to be cautious about rolling downward. Yet, the general trend for Bitcoin right now is upward. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
Are we about to confirm a Super-Cycle event in the US Markets?In this week’s update, I’d like to delve into something that I consider probably one of the most important, but in the realm of my career, probably one of the last consequential decisions I will make in my time being affiliated with Markets. The potential of a Super-cycle topping event. This next week is my birthday. That got me thinking about my career. I first became professionally involved in the markets in 1990. But in truth, that story started when I first watched the 1987 movie “Wall Street”, starring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. I remember thinking to myself while watching this movie when it first aired …” that’s what I want to spend my life doing.” Probably not too far and away from many of you reading this, who caught the trading bug. Your origin story probably mimics mine to some extent. But I hailed from proud Austrian/Spanish descendants who settled in NYC in the 1930’s, and didn’t have much, and at the time, my aspirations seemed like a stretch. I went to college and majored in accounting as originally, I thought I would be a CPA. However, an internship at a big 8 accounting firm in my junior year called that aspiration into question almost immediately. My supervisor at the time commented to me…” you interns should pay us rather than the other way around ”. I assumed he was referring to the aspect that interns only complicate things, make his job harder, and I distinctly remember what a jerk this guy was, and that if the industry is filled with guys like this, I had little desire to join that cast of characters. Did my future entail me becoming this guy? It’s funny how life introduces you to people to guide, or divert you, from your chosen path…but nonetheless, becoming a CPA was a dream that I now felt at odds with. That was devasting for me because I felt I was back to square one…until I caught that movie. Leaving the theater, I was captivated, and so clear-eyed as to what I would spend the rest of my life doing. I simply would not be deterred. I got started at an investment banking firm under the tutelage of a senior advisor in the private placement division. I was fascinated by this transaction because it was (for the most part) a zero-risk proposition. I would inform some of the high-net-worth clientele of the firm that by buying restricted 144-stock prior to the IPO at a massive discount to the pricing date of the IPO, their stock would immediately become eligible for sale on Day 1 and at the opening price. The returns were typically 100% or more, and in a 6–24-month period, depending upon how complex the business was and the interest from the selling syndicate. It got to the point after several years, if the private placement allotment was GETTEX:25M or $50M I could place that entire allotment in a 10-hour work day and with only a handful of phone calls. The largest amount of time that passed was between my initial phone call and finally getting the client on the phone. The previous history of being involved in these transactions was a "no salesmanship on my part" required. The calls went, “I have $5M for private placement how much do you want”? I never heard objections like the retail brokers heard… ”I need to discuss this with my wife. or I’m going through a rough patch and have no discretionary funds.” It was here is my wiring instructions, you hit the firm’s account by COB at 4pm EST and the shares are yours. Fail to follow through on the wire, no problem… but I’ll never call you again ”. It wasn’t long before I was informed that secretaries were instructed if I called…regardless of what my client was involved with, put the call through. However, what I constantly thought about was how unfair the risk/reward was to all those who never had the chance to participate in these secretive transactions. The ups and downs of the markets had to make sense…and it wasn’t until 2012 that became affiliated with Elliott’s work. Previous to 2012, the technical analytical perspective was mocked as wishful thinking, or voodoo like. The prevailing thought process was the random walk theory, Dow theory, etc…I was a loyal follower of John Murphy (Founder of stockcharts.com) and in truth he turned me on to Elliott Wave Theory. The tenants of EWT made sense to me. They were routed in mathematics, and Fibonacci, and as a former accounting major, I felt were well within my scope of understanding. The by-product of that relationship was the absolute fascination with investor sentiment and the repeating patterns they tend to create, over and over again ("Self Similar" as Elliott put it in his original work). Fast forward 10 years and in 2022 after an exhaustive analytical look at the sum of the price action associated with the SPX500, I realized that the odds we were entering an area of a super-cycle wave (III) top was incredibly high. Now understand the magnitude of this observation of mine. If my analysis was correct, the last super-cycle wave (II) would have been experienced in the late summer of 1932. Even if we get alternation, this will be the trade of a lifetime. Not necessarily to be short the top, but to be amply prepared. I have discussed this notion with my members for two years so far. Heck, it was the leading reason why I founded EWTDaily.com. If I am right, this will affect every aspect of your financial lives, and by extension, probably your life in general. This week’s update is not to speculate what the causes are, or will be, of such an event. None of us know, and the reasons one could speculatively insert as a cause are adding up each and every month. However, to claim that my members were prepared, is all that matters to me.
SP:SPX
by maikisch
3
S&P 500 Analysis: Bearish Momentum Ahead of CPI ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea from 6058 and still has bearish momentum. Now, as long as trades below 6058 touch 6022, stability under 6022 supports dropping toward 5971, especially if the CPI released is more than expected, which is 2.7%. A 4-hour candle should close above 6058 to have a bullish trend until 6099, in the case of realizing CPI results in less than 2.7%. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: Downward while below 6058
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P500 - The Most Important Channel Breakout!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting a crucial breakout area: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 During 2024, the S&P500 rallied more than 25% after we already saw a very bullish year of 2023. However, momentum is always more likely to continue and since the S&P500 is currently retesting a major breakout level, this bullish momentum could lead to a final breakout. Levels to watch: $6.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
18