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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 7-18 - Mjr. CRUSH Counter Trend DayGood morning everyone, Today's big Major CRUSH pattern in a counter-trend mode should be very exciting. I'm expecting the price to attempt to rally upward to fill yesterday's big opening price gap. But stay cautious of potential volatility related to today's open. Yesterday's big price rotation (and GAP) showed us that Volatility has been here all the time—maybe just slightly muted. It is not uncommon for prices to move into periods of lower or higher volatility throughout the year. I believe today's Major CRUSH pattern will resolve to the upside (at least attempting to fill yesterday's big GAP). But I urge my followers to be very cautious of the first 2~3 hours of trading today as we may see an initial move to the downside - shaking out some longs and attempting a bit of a carryover of yesterday's selling pressure. So, be aware that the volatility and the large range price rotation we are seeing with this exhaustion top/peak/rotation, in combination with today's Major CRUSH pattern, will likely setup the FLAG formation highs/lows I've been suggesting. From here, we should move into 2~4 days of tight price rotation before we reach the FLAG APEX. Again, how do I know this is going to happen? I use my SPY Cycle Patterns to attempt to identify the most realistic future price expectations and estimate where I believe price will be as it cycles through my patterns. As you can see, even though I may be "off" a bit regarding price levels, my estimates are generally very close to what price will actually attempt to do in the future. So, today should be a fairly volatile upward price move, setting up the upper range of the pending FLAG pattern. Then, we'll slide into the consolidated FLAG formation until Tuesday or Wednesday next week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
S&P500 The correction is over. Bullish trend intact.The S&P500 (SPX) has been rising steadily since our June 17 bullish break-out signal (see chart below) and despite this week's pull-back, the upward pattern remains unchanged: As long as it continues to be supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we remain bullish with our Target intact at 5800, marginally below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. On a side-note, observe the uncanny symmetry between the RSI structures of the Bullish Legs. We are now on a similar pull-back recovery formation as on the January 31 2024 and June 26 2023 short-term Lows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-17 - SPY Looking For SupportPlease watch this video as we see the markets move into a Counter-trend Major CRUSH tomorrow. We may see a very large reversion in price (upward) tomorrow. I'm looking for price to reject recent lows and move higher. Then, I'm expecting price to reject recent highs (from 7-16) and move downward tomorrow. After that big rotation, I believe the price will move into a downward consolidation phase, attempting to build a FLAG before starting a big upward move near July 22~24. Please know the strong potential for huge price swings over 24 to 48 hours. Then, we move into a more consolidated/contracted price channel (FLAGGING). I'll post more later. Watch for price to build support and attempt to move higher into the close. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-17 Opening Price Update - BreakdownI created this short video to help you understand we are still cautious of a continued breakdown in price - retesting deeper support. The breakdown pattern I suggested would happen based on my SPY Cycle Patterns played out perfectly this morning. I expect a type of "V" shaped bottom/base to be set up, but I believe the SPY/QQQ may continue to push downward - attempting to WASH OUT longs and stress the markets before rolling higher into the close today and going much higher tomorrow. Please pay attention to my research. I have to say, the past few weeks of sharing my SPY Cycle Patterns on TV and trying to prove the validity of my technology have been very exciting. There is nothing like putting your neck on the chopping block by making bold predictions for price and watching to see what happens. I was either going to find my patterns work - or find out they don't work. Pay attention to this video because we may have more downward price trending before we find a bottom. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 7-17 - Possible Breakdown PatternI'm going to keep this short and simple this morning. Yesterday, I shared about 3~4 videos related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how the markets were setting up for this Possible Breakdown (or as I called it, the Exhaustion Breakdown) pattern. I even took some extra time to share a late video last night trying to prepare traders for what is/was about to unfold related to today's Possible Breakdown and tomorrow's Counter-Trend Major CRUSH pattern. You can watch that video yourselves to learn what I expect. After rolling out of bed at 3:50 this morning (California time) and taking a look at my charts, all I can say is WOW! Nailed it! I'm continually amazed at the accuracy and capability of my SPY Cycle Patterns as well as their ability to see into the future. I don't know of any other technology that is capable of doing what my SPY Cycle Patterns are doing. And I don't believe anyone has been able to crack the code (the secrets of the markets) like I have been able to do. Now, these patterns are not always 100% accurate. I've warned everyone in the past (and now). There will be periods where they don't align with price very well. That happens. Watch today's video while I sit back and watch my Puts print all morning. What a great day. I may try to put on some Calls later today - but at this point, I'm calling this a BIG WIN. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
6
S&P 500 Analysis: Reversal from All-Time HighS&P 500 Analysis: Reversal from All-Time High The S&P 500 recently reached an all-time high but has since reversed. Stability below 5620 indicates a continuation of the bearish trend, targeting 5584 and 5550. Earnings reports are expected to play a significant role, potentially moderating bullish momentum. Bullish Scenario: To maintain a bullish trend, the price should stabilize above 5639, aiming for 5672 and 5688. For a sustained uptrend, the price must stabilize above 5688, potentially reaching 5750. Bearish Scenario: For a downtrend, the price should stabilize below 5620, targeting 5584 and 5550, especially if a 4-hour candle closes below 5620. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5620 - Resistance Levels: 5639, 5672, 5688, 5750 - Support Levels: 5584, 5550, 5525 Today's Expected Trading Range: The expected trading range is between the resistance at 5672 and the support at 5550. previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX Will Go Down! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for SPX. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,631.31. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,307.26 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SP:SPXShort
by SignalProvider
1
SPY/QQQ Cycle Pattern Update - Balancing Expectations & RisksAs part of my Plan Your Trade video series, I wanted to share some additional information on how I balance my expectations for price swings/moves with what's changing in the current market environment. Initially, I draw my expectations based on what I see on the chart and how I interpret the SPY Cycle Patterns. From there, I watch the custom index charts I use to measure the underlying market strengths/weaknesses (behind the scenes). Over the past 3+ days, I've been highlighting the huge moves in RSP and IYT. Traders need to understand that this strong bullish move suggests that the US market is actively relating to the end of 2024 and beyond. However, the Exhaustion Breakdown pattern tomorrow (July 17) is very likely to represent a downward price move many traders have already positioned for. Although I expect the downward price move to stay under 2.0-2.25% from today's close, it will still be strong enough to catch some attention. Please watch this video and pay attention to the first 10 minutes and the last 3 minutes. I want to know what all of you think of my SPY Cycle Patterns and if these videos are helping you out. I believe the next 5+ years will be the biggest opportunity of our lives regarding how the US and global markets trend. In my attempt to help as many traders as I can, I need to hear from you. Are these videos helping you or confusing you? What could I do to improve them? Get ready for tomorrow, and remember the next big opportunity starts on July 22 (or so). Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
10
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-15 Mid-Day Update - Selling PressureGood afternoon everyone, As I created this video, the SPY was stalling above $562, with lagging bullish price momentum. In this video, I explain why the SPY & QQQ are not selling downward very hard (yet). I also explain why I believe the downward price trend (consolidation/correction) I believe will happen over the next 4+ trading days will only be a -0.75% to -2.0% downward price swing. My analysis of how price will move relative to my SPY Cycle Patterns involves many factors. I rely on more than just the SPY Cycle Patterns; my research includes dozens of other metrics and custom indexes. This video shows how strongly IYT and RSP are rallying right now. If you are going to daytrade any of the indexes, you need to pay attention to those symbols. If IYT (the Transportation Index) is rallying while RSP (the Equal-weight S&P500 ETF) is rallying - guess what? You see forward solid expectations of a broad-sector US stock market rally. Yes, maybe 30 to 90+ days in the future, you may see ignored and undervalued symbols rally more than 30% because of what we see right now. THAT is why I'm trying to share my research. I want to help you become a better, more skilled trader. That includes learning to use technical analysis more efficiently and keeping track of many underlying key metrics to help balance your expectations. Why would anyone want to swing hard for short trades when the IYT, RSP, and dozens of other metrics say, "the US stock market is REFLATING into a broad-sector rally phase"? That is the question you need to ask yourself... Are you getting the best research/analysis to help you build skills you can keep for the rest of your life? Follow my research. Take a minute to go back and watch some of my recent videos. If you want to learn how I can predict market trends 5 to 10+ days in advance, then all you have to do is pay attention to what I show you. I read the charts/data - and then formulate my expectations based on what my SPY Cycle Patterns show me. If something changes, I may adjust my expectations a bit. But, generally, my expectations don't change very much. Let's get started and learn how to distinguish these markets. Watch this video and learn. Watch my other videos and learn. The next 5+ years will be the greatest opportunity of your life. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
NIKE INC. AMERICAN SHOOES LOOSING GLOSS, AHEAD OF U.S. RECESSIONNIKE Inc. or Nike is an American multinational company specializing in sportswear and footwear. The company designs, develops, markets and sells athletic footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment and services. The company was founded by William Jay Bowerman and Philip H. Knight more than 40 years ago, on January 25, 1964, and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon. As of July 15, 2024, NIKE (NKE) shares were down more than 33 percent in 2024, making them a Top 5 Underperformer among all the S&P500 components. Perhaps everything would have been "normal", and everything could be explained by the one only unsuccessful December quarter of 2023, when the Company’s revenue decreased by 2 percentage points to $12.6 billion, which turned out to be lower than analyst estimates. But one circumstance makes everything like a "not just cuz". This is all because among the Top Five S&P500 Outsiders, in addition to NIKE, we have also shares of another large shoe manufacturer - lululemon athletica (LULU), that losing over 44 percent in 2024. Influence of macroeconomic factors 👉 The economic downturn hurts most merchandise retailers, but footwear companies face the greatest risk to loose profits, as higher fixed costs lead to larger profit declines when sales come under pressure. 👉 The Nasdaq US Benchmark Footwear Index has fallen more than 23 percent since the start of 2024 as consumer spending is threatened by continued rising home prices, banks' reluctance to lend, high lending rates, and high energy and energy costs. food products - weaken. 👉 In general, the above-mentioned Footwear Sub-Industry Index continues to decline for the 3rd year in a row, being at levels half as low as the maximum values ​​of the fourth quarter of 2021. Investment Domes worsen forecasts... 👉 In the first quarter of 2024, Goldman Sachs made adjustments to its forecast for Nike shares, lowering the target price to $120 from the previous $135, while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The company analyst cited ongoing challenges in Nike's near-term growth trajectory as the main reason for the adjustment, anticipating potential underperformance compared to market peers, noting that Nike's 2025 growth expectations have become "more conservative." 👉 Last Friday, Jefferies Financial Group cut its price target from $90.00 to $80.00, according to a report. 👉 Several other equity analysts also weighed in on NKE earlier in Q2 2024. In a research note on Friday, June 28, Barclays downgraded NIKE from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating and lowered their price target for the company from $109.00 to $80.00. 👉 BMO Capital Markets lowered their price target on NIKE from $118.00 to $100.00 and set an overweight rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, June 28th. 👉 Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an equal-weight rating and set a $79.00 price target (up from $114.00) on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th. 👉 Oppenheimer reiterated an outperform rating and set a $120.00 price target on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th. 👉 Finally, StockNews.com downgraded NIKE from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday, June 21st. ...and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy Perhaps everything would have been fine, and all the deterioration in forecasts could have been attributed to the stretching spring of price decline, if not for one circumstance - it is not the ratings that are declining due to the decline in share prices, but the shares themselves are being pushed lower and lower, as one after another depressing ones are released analytical forecasts from investment houses. 16 years ago. How it was On January 15, 2008, shares of many shoe companies, including Nike Inc. (NKE) and Foot Locker Inc. (FL) fell after investment giant Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its stock price targets, warning that the U.S. recession would drag down the companies' sales in 2008 as consumers spend more cautiously. "The recession will further increase the impact of the key headwind of a limited number of key commodity trends needed to fuel consumer interest in the sector," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. In early 2008, Goldman downgraded athletic shoe retailer Foot Locker to "sell" from "neutral" and cut its six-month share price target from $17 to $10, saying it expected U.S. sales margins to continue to decline in 2008 despite store closures. The downgrade was a major blow to Foot Locker, which by early 2008 had already seen its shares fall 60 percent over the previous 12 months as it struggled with declining sales due to declining demand for athletic shoes at the mall and a lack of exciting fashion trends in the market. sports shoes. Like now, at those times Goldman retained its recommendation rating to “buy” Nike Inc shares, based on general ideas about the Company’s increasing weight over the US market, topped off with theses about the Company’s international visibility, as well as robust demand ahead of the Beijing Olympics. However Goldman lowered its target price for the shares from $73 to $67 ( from $18.25 to $16.75, meaning two 2:1 splits in Nike stock in December 2012 and December 2015). Although Nike, at the time of the downturn in forecasts, in fact remained largely unscathed by the decline in demand for athletic footwear among US mall retailers, it reported strong second-quarter results in December 2007 (and even beating forecasts for strong demand for its footwear in the US and growth abroad) , Goldman Sachs' forecasts for Nike's revenue and earnings per share to decline were justified. Later Nike' shares lost about 45 percent from their 2008 peaks, and 12 months later reached a low in the first quarter of 2009 near the $40 mark ($10 per share, taking into account two stock splits). The decline in Foot Locker shares from the 2008 peaks 2009 lows was even about 80 percent, against the backdrop of the global recession and the banking crisis of 2007-09. Will history repeat itself this time..!? Who knows.. However, the main technical graph says, everything is moving (yet) in this direction.
NYSE:NKE
by Pandorra
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-16 - Price Starting To FLAG OUTGood morning everyone, Today's video should be an important warning to prepare for prices to move into a tight, consolidated, FLAGGING type of trend. Remember, you'll hear me say price either FLAGS or TRENDS—that's it. If you understand these FLAGS are price constructs that present mechanical price structures, we can then use them to analyze future price structures. It all becomes clear that price moves in logical structures related to energy, vibration, amplitude, frequency, and cycles. Without getting too deep into the abstract of price theory, let's focus on where to find opportunities... Watch this video. Over the next 5+ trading days, you will find 35 very clear price swings, which I believe will provide ample opportunity for skilled traders. Beyond those 35 bigger swings, you should get ready to sit and wait (in CASH) for the bigger opportunities to set up between July 22 and 25 (for a rally to start). Smart traders must understand you can't force the markets to move as you want. You must sit back and wait for the right opportunities for your trades (or you'll get chopped to pieces). In this video, I've clearly laid out what I expect to see happen for the SPY/QQQ over the next 10+ days. There are still opportunities for skilled daytraders. My only warning is to START SMALL and build positions within your risk tolerance levels. Don't swing for the fences in this market for the next 5+ days. Stay safe. There will be more significant price swings starting on the 24th or 25th of July. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
#DJIA to 40k!We are in a BULL MARKET so the risks are to the UPSIDE, one of an explosive rally as fund managers who have badly gotten the market wrong panic buy propelling the Stock market driven by #FOMO rather than reasoned analysis to far higher than people can imagine. New bull market highs should arrive during summer 2023! All whilst indecision reigns supreme on the likes of twitter in a perpetual waiting for a magic signal with the goal posts constantly drifting as those who failed to act when the knives were fast falling desperately cling onto hopes of the likes of #SPX 3600 and lower to buy Even though if it ever happened they would once more be too fearful act just as they were the last time S&P traded down to S&P 3600 :) My base case is we already had the recession, during the corrective moves of 2022.
TVC:DJILong
by BallaJi
2
How to break the marketsIn a fortunate turn of events, inflation has calmed. For equity bulls, more good news. Yield rates have probably peaked. To stop inflation, you must cool down a HOT economy. Overconsumption tends to increase prices. In an unfortunate (?) turn of events however, the markets haven't calmed down. Some charts suggest that the markets haven't felt at all the decisive rate-hike schedule. A question arises: Are markets so strong not to feel current yield rates? Or is there some kind of lag we must take into account? When will equities suffer, and how much? These are important questions right now that need serious answers. A custom indicator was invented to calculate the average-rate-of-return of equities against yield rates. It attempts to answer the following question: How much better do equities perform YoY against the "safe" US 10-year bond investment? Some interesting charts come up from this analysis: In 1951 yield rates broke out of their long-term bear market. At the same time, the equity market exploded in even higher strength. Note that at that period, equities managed to perform better than the ever-increasing yield rates. It was after yield rates ~tripled that problems arised. Moving to today, we only recently witnessed a breakout in the equity and the yield-rate-schedule. Judging from the '60s, we could even witness a decade of yield rates trying to catch up to the equity market. A simultaneous breakout can make sense. A massive amount of money has flown out of the bond market and had to enter the equity market. Equities may be forced to grow, for now. An incoming drop in yield rates from a pause in the rate-hike-schedule will almost certainly create an outflow from equities and back into bonds. Be prepared. The weakness in the equity market hasn't showed up yet. At any point, the steep upward trend can collapse. A crash will certainly come. But at a time when nobody expects it to. Remember, rates of ~7% managed to break irreversibly the equity market back in the '60s. Ask yourself and wonder. How tight of an economy can opportunistic equities handle? At what point will stability become more important for us than growth? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
3
2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market closed near the open, so neutral. Bulls printed another ath but got another big rejection for 50 points. Bears need lower lows and follow through selling or we continue inside the broad bull channel. Friday’s and Today’s daily bar look bad enough for the bulls so I think bears are favored slightly to get to 5640 or lower tomorrow. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5720 bull case: Bulls buying every dip and staying near or above the 1h 20ema. Despite the many rejections above 5700, bulls are in control and poke higher each day. Clean broad bull channel and until bears break below and make lower lows again, bulls are heavily favored. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Big up, big down, market went nowhere today, despite another ath. Bears desperately need lower lows below 5600, otherwise every dip is bought. First bear target are consecutive closes below the 1h 20ema and then a retest of 5640, which is Friday’s open and near the bull channel line. Invalidation is above 5720. short term: Neutral and fading the extremes. Selling above 5700 continues to be profitable. Not interested in buying this. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”. trade of the day: Shorting above 5700 was good for 48 points. Was previous resistance and still is. Daily close above 5700 would change that.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P 500: Approaching All-Time High or Facing Reversal?S&P 500 Analysis: All-Time High or Reversal? The S&P 500 is exhibiting strong bullish momentum at the start of the second quarter earnings season. This bullish sentiment is expected to drive a general upward trend with potential rotations. Bullish Scenario: To sustain the bullish momentum, the price needs to stabilize above the pivot line at 5620, potentially reaching 5672 and 5688. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the price drops and stabilizes below 5620, it would indicate a bearish trend, potentially leading to declines towards 5585 and 5550. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5640 - Resistance Levels: 5670, 5688, 5715 - Support Levels: 5620, 5585, 5550 Today's Expected Trading Range: Today's trading range is anticipated to be between the resistance at 5688 and the support at 5550. previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Election Year Jitters: How to Navigate the Volatile US Equity MaUS Presidential Elections and US Equities are a match made in heaven. History shows that market swings more up than down. This year, prepare for a wild ride full of twists. Sadly, former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally over the weekend. He survived and is safe. Investors are expected to shift into haven assets. Gold could test all-time highs. The Dollar, Yen and Bitcoin will rise. WHAT IS THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE THEORY? Yale Hirsch introduced this theory. It posits that stock markets are weakest in the year following Presidential elections. The presidential election impacts economic policies and consequently market sentiment. Theory suggests that US equities perform best during the third followed by the fourth year of a Presidential term. In 1967, Yale Hirsch (a market researcher) published the first edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. According to the book, the President typically indulges the special interest group who got him elected in the first two years after assuming the office. With the next election round the corner, the President shifts focus on shoring up the economy to get re-elected during the third and fourth year. Consequently, equities gain during the second half of the Presidential term. That's the theory, but does it hold true? The answer turns out to be an emphatic yes. S&P500 Index Performance since 1960 with election years highlighted BUT HOW ABOUT SECOND HALF OF THE ELECTION YEAR? With half of the election year behind us, crucially, how do markets perform during the second half of an election year? Over the last 6 decades, the S&P500 on average delivered positive returns in 13 of the 16 election years during the second half of the year. 2008 was a washout year for equities with global financial crisis crushing equities. The S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.1% followed by 3.2% in the second half on average even after including 2008. S&P500 tends have positive bias in election years Excluding 2008, average S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.9% followed by 5.4% in the second half. S&P500 positive bias during election years is even more pronounced when 2008 GFC abnormal returns are excluded PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE History has shown time and again that timing the market is futile. Using Hirsch’s theory as gospel can be dangerous. Presidential elections occur once only every four years. Even though the analysis above covers 6 decades, it only has 16 data points. By any measure, that's far too little to arrive at definitive conclusions. As any sensible statistician would tell you, even if two variables are correlated (election cycle and S&P500), it does not guarantee causation. WHAT CAN INVESTORS EXPECT DURING 2024 ELECTION YEAR? It is not just historical precedent that suggests upside in the next six months, market conditions also suggest equities could see further upside. 2024 has been a stunning year. Gen AI frenzy has fuelled powerful rally. It has been the strongest tailwind since the dot-com mania. Unlike the dot-gone era, companies are producing eye-popping revenues and profits that support the rally. The recession that never came has been a powerful tailwind that has helped equity markets soar to heights never seen before. Inflation has been easing. Labour markets are tightening. Expectations of rate cuts are rising fast. The next Fed meeting is scheduled on 31st July. Markets are pricing 93% chance of the Fed Fund rates remaining unchanged at the current 525-550 basis points (bps). The picture is starkly different for the Fed meeting on 18th September. Markets are pricing >90% chance of the Fed starting to cut the rates by 25bps based on CME FedWatch tool as of close of markets on 12th July 2024. Slowing economy and rising unemployment will trigger the Fed to commence its rate cutting cycle Citi analysts predict that the Fed will slash rates by 200 bps (2% in total) by the summer of 2025. 25bps of rate cuts in eight successive meetings, starting in September. A slowing economy and growing unemployment are cited as the basis for this aggressive rate cut cycle. RATE CUTS WILL PUT MARKETS ON TOP GEAR Two active wars. Extreme weather conditions. Shocks from elections across the globe. None of these have had any dampening effect on equities. Such is the euphoria. Rate cuts will put a turbo charged market on steroids. Investors out to be cautious to assess if rate cuts are already priced into equities given that S&P 500 is up >11% over last three months including 2.8% so far in July. It is essential to make risk mitigated moves in the second half of an election year. WHAT ALTERNATIVES DO INVESTORS HAVE? There are many alternatives. Three common possibilities are (a) Long Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, (b) Long call options on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, and (c) Bullish put spread on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures. Futures enable direct, liquid, and efficient access to the index. Long call enables investors to gain from rising S&P 500 and from volatility expansion. Bullish put spread allows the trader to harvest put options premium as the index rises. The bull put spread consists of one short put with a higher strike and one long put with a lower strike. Given the sharp run-up in the index and expected volatility, long calls are not viable. Risk reward ratios for a bullish put are not compelling. Hence, a hypothetical trade set up using futures. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With equity markets in euphoria and rate cuts expected starting in September, US equities are poised to rally further. Historical precedent shows that 2H of election years tends to results in positive returns in the S&P 500. Investors can express this view using Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index futures. Trade set up using Micro E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures expiring in Dec 2024 (MESZ2024) is summarised below: • Entry: 5650 • Target: 6030 • Stoploss: 5400 • Profit at target: USD 1,900 (6030 – 5650 = 380 index points; Profit = 380 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,900) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,250 (5400 – 5650 = 250 index points; Loss = 250 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,250) • Reward to Risk: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Long
by mintdotfinance
SPQ/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7/15 - Exhaustion Rally PatternGood morning everyone, This new Plan Your Trade video will illustrate why I believe the SPY may target 568~570+ highs over the next two days before rolling downward into a moderate downward/consolidation phase. If you've been following my videos/research, you already know I believe the markets are setting up for another LEG HIGHER. But, first they need to roll into a PAUSE phase over the next 5+ days, then move higher on new momentum. Watch today's video to learn why my SPY Cycle Patterns are so incredible and help traders plan/prepare for big market moves. Here we go... Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish HugsSmall caps still look like good long-term play despite Russell 2000 backlog in the first half of 2024 vs Large Cap S&P500 Index (SPX) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Nasdaq-100 indices (SPX). As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD return was about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50% gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC). By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500. Thursday was a historically strange day in the stock market. That may be good news. 👉 The Russell 2000 rose more than 3%, while struggles for Big Tech stocks weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. At the same time, every stock in the so-called Magnificent Seven fell, including a more than 5% decline for Nvidia and a 2.3% drop for Apple, which dragged down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. 👉 Thursday was just the 2nd day in history since 1979 when the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% while the S&P 500 declined. The split trading came after the June report for the consumer price index early Thursday showed headline inflation declined last month and is now up about 3% over the past year. 👉 The Nasdaq Composite underperformed the Russell 2000 by more than 5 percentage points in what appears to be largest ever daily gap on record. The only other time the gap came in above 5 percentage points was in November 2020 (where broad stock rally began), right after Pfizer shared positive results from a Covid-19 vaccine trial. What is The Russell 2000 Index in US stock market universe?! 👉 The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index. 👉 The Russell 2000 Index represents just as low as 7% of the total market capitalization, however it includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership (appr. two-third of The Russell 3000 Index components). 👉 The Russell 2000 is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set. Russell 2000 Index characteristics (as of June 30, 2024) Price/Book: 2.10 Dividend Yield: 1.44 P/E Ex-Neg Earnings: 16.90 EPS Growth - 5 Years: 14.14 Number of Holdings Russell 2000: 1,921 Russell 2000 Index Technical aspects In technical terms Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish Hugs
FX:US2000
by Pandorra
SPX & NDX to SHORT TVC:DJI NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX Rising wedge pattern forming in S&P 500.....big banks price target forecast for fiscal year 2024 were $4800-$5600 ....eventually hitting all PT mid 2024......S&P500 fell last week and DJI rose last week with 4% percentage difference which means investors or big money booking profits from tech and large weighted stocks in S&P 500 and investing in small caps and value stocks because of low inflation and hoping rate cuts soon. NASDAQ100 just witnessed bearish engulfing candle on thursday 11th july 2024....engulfing previous 4 days candles. Read:https://www.tradingview.com/news/benzinga:1590409c1094b:0-ai-super-bulls-pay-attention-to-the-biggest-divergence-since-2001-tsla-call-buyers-crushed/
SP:SPXShort
by MAFIA_TRADER074
3
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 14th —>July 19th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/14/2024) **SPX**- As we predicted last week, market was bullish, We also saw lower than expect CPI and PPI data which pushed the chance of a rate cut to 88% in September. Due to the chance of rate cut actually happening, we are seeing rotation into small cap stocks and industrials. Next resistance $5626 and $5655 Next support $5490 and 5385 Weekly Sentiment = Slightly Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- As rate cut chances increase and JPY FX started to increase, we are starting to see weakness in the dollar. Next resistance $105 Support $104 Sentiment = Oversold **Put to call Ratio: 1.56 —> 1.31 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 54—>56**
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
S&P500 - Possible Short Term Top in. OANDA:SPX500USD is looking like its in the end of the move higher. Thursday/Friday were very slow after the early week rally even with NFPs giving things a spike. now we look for Monday to give us some clues for the next move. Option 1 - We get a move down to 5320 before one more high up to 5400 area. Option 2 - The top is in on this run from the April low and we get a deeper PB down towards 5200 followed by another ATH around 5500. Option 3 - But less likely, it holds Fridays lows and we get one more run up to 5400 then a deeper correction. Things to watch going into this week with Inflation data Wednesday/Thursday and the next Interest rate decision out of the US Wednesday were they are expected to keep things at the same level. I will also post expected intra-day movements throughout the week. Enjoy the week, watch for Monday clues.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by L_F