Can we go back to reality?Congratulations NVDA, because you delivered everything you could deliver in terms of good results, however, can we get back to reality?
Will the Black Monday that we experienced in 1987, in the DOW JONES index, be experienced again in 2024, and thanks to NVDA and technology companies?
We know what happened between 1980 and 1985 to the American economy, right?
It is known that in the 1980s and early 1990s, dollars could circulate freely around the world, so much so that we had a global economic miracle, and the world was swimming in booming growth.
But, at the current moment, dollars can no longer circulate freely around the world (FED, China, Russia) and continue contributing to global growth? Therefore, the technological war we are experiencing today (chips and electric cars), diverted dollars to these sectors, further inflating this bubble that is about to burst.
Speaking of electric cars, China is firmly dumping its electric cars around the world at very reasonable prices (as it has no intention of breaking its internal market – control), once and for all destroying the automobile industry in many emerging countries, oh my, no?
Let's go graphics.
Monthly: NVDA has reached the three golden levels of the FIB of the SETUP used, so there is nowhere else to go. So, SPX, get ready.
The red lines are resistance points.
Weekly: With the brilliant financial report recently released, prices are ready to seek the golden region of this chart period.
The red lines are resistance points.
Daily. Prices have reached the region of 100% of the bullish pivot.
The red lines are resistance points.
Do your analysis and good business.
Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss.
See other graphical analyzes below.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
S&P - Short Trade IdeaHere is a short trade idea on the S&P, using the SPX500USD chart.
We are basically at all time highs right now. This short idea is based on buyside liquidity recently raided, and now looking to ride a retracement/reversal down to a Discount PD Array.
There was a good-looking Unicorn setup that formed. Price is already in an entry area, but I've indicated a higher POI should price come up one more time (if we are ready to retrace). The targets are either Weekly BISIs, with the terminus at the beginning of the lowest Weekly BISI.
Overall, a pretty straight-forward trade. Since this is the 4h, I will be looking for a lower timeframe manipulation at a Killzone during a likely day, or news event to confirm lower prices.
- R2F
SPX Is Going Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,304.15.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5,178.42 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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S&P bulls are unstoppable; market reaches new highMarket closed strongly last week after reaching a new historical high. There was some sluggish consolidation on Thursday-Friday but near end of Friday trading hours, bulls put end to it by setting hourly higher low. Friday closed within Thursday’s range after a failed break-out, which is a very bullish signal.
Currently, we have full alignment on all major timeframe: price is in uptrend on weekly, daily and hourly timeframes. There are absolutely no warning signs that would speak for bears.
Both short- and long-term outlooks are bullish. If you're already in a long position, you're fortunate and can rest easy. If you're considering entering the market, you can either wait for another pullback or enter now with a reasonable stop-loss.
FOMC minutes are coming out on Wednesday, which could cause some unexpected volatility. However, if there are no major surprises, the bullish thesis remains unchanged.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
SPX500 potential buy the dip opportunityYesterday the SPX500 dropped around 0.8%. this sets up an interesting dynamic where short-term traders may look to capitalize.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) :
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
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Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market has transitioned from a rally to a short-term dip. Bulls are attempting to defend key supports, while bears are looking for further downside continuation.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5265 (major), 5253 (major)
Major Supports: 5230-35 (major), 5202 (major), 5177 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5293 (major), 5302 (major)
Major Resistances: 5317 (major), 5380 (major), 5400 (major)
Trading Strategy
Post-Rally Dip: The market is now in a short-term dip after a prolonged rally. Exercise caution and avoid chasing longs or shorts.
Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5274 for potential long entries. Consider failed breakdowns at 5265 or a dip and reclaim at 5230-35 for more aggressive long entries.
Short Opportunities: Consider shorts at 5317 (if the market rallies strongly) or on failed breakdowns below 5265 after a bounce/retest. Exercise caution and take profits level-to-level.
Focus on Reactions and Price Discovery: Wait for confirmation signals and clear reactions at key levels before committing to any trades.
Bull Case
Defending Support: Bulls need to defend the 5265-72 zone to prevent further downside and maintain the possibility of a bounce.
Reclaiming Resistances: If bulls reclaim the 5293 and 5302 levels, the dip could be considered over, opening up a potential move towards the previous highs.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5265 could trigger further selling, targeting 5230-35 and potentially deeper levels. Look for bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 24th, 2024
📈 U.S. Durable Goods Orders: The latest data shows an unexpected increase in April, suggesting resilience in manufacturing despite economic headwinds.
🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Their Economic Impacts: Recent surveys indicate that geopolitical risks are a top concern for global family offices, with significant implications for asset allocations in North America and Asia Pacific.
🛡️ Shifts in Safe Haven Assets: In an environment of growing debt concerns, investors are increasingly turning to gold over traditional government bonds, marking a significant shift in safe haven preferences.
🌎 Climate Change and Economic Impact: A session at the 10th World Water Forum highlighted the severe economic repercussions of climate change and water scarcity in Laos, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable water management solutions.
📊 Global PMI Data Releases: The release of the S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI reports provides critical insights into the economic conditions of the services and manufacturing sectors, which are key indicators of overall economic health.
BTC Looking to Rise Against The SPX with Inflation ExpectationsIt is sort of starting to look like Bitcoin will soon start to move inverse to the SPX and become more positively correlated with a Defensive Asset or Inflation Hedge which would mean we could see BTC more than double in value against the SPX as the BTCUSD pair starts to trade similarly to Cocoa or OJ futures once it breaks out above the resistance.
S&P 500 Falls 0.7% Amid Investor Uncertainty S&P 500 Falls 0.7% Amid Investor Uncertainty
The S&P 500 OANDA:SPX500USD declined by 0.7% on a subdued Thursday as investors adjusted their portfolios amid fluctuating market sentiment. The trading session was marked by an uneasy atmosphere following the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, which indicated that central bankers are not in a hurry to reduce interest rates . This cautious stance from the Fed has been a key factor in supporting the recent upward trend in stocks.
Technically Side:
The price has declined and reached the breakout zone, indicating a potential return to the 5266 level. To continue the bearish trend, the price must break below 5266, confirmed by closing a 4-hour or 1-hour candle under this level. If this occurs, the next targets would be 5226 and 5193.
Conversely, if the price closes above 5282, it would suggest a bullish trend, with the potential to reach 5307 and subsequently 5320.
Pivot Line: 5282
Resistance Levels: 5305, 5325, 5350
Support Levels: 5245, 5227, 5193
Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5192 and the resistance 5320.
SPX Is Going Down! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,303.24.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,089.73.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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While FED depends on Data NVDA stocks clearly predict Zero RatesNvidia reported another blowout earnings report in its first-quarter results, and its stock is soaring to record highs above $1,000 per share on Thursday.
The company reported revenue and profit that surpassed analyst estimates and offered second-quarter revenue guidance that was well ahead of Wall Street's expectations. On top of that, the company announced a 10-for-1 stock split and increased its quarterly dividend by 150% to $0.10 per share.
Wall Street analysts were impressed by the results, with a slew of price target increases hitting the tape this Thursday morning.
Goldman Sachs (GS): "New products to drive sustained growth in Data Center"
⚡ Analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed out that the company delivered accelerated year-over-year revenue growth, with its Data Center business growing revenue at 427%.
JP Morgan (JPM): "Demand continues to outstrip supply into CY25".
⚡ Analysts at JPMorgan said they were impressed that Nvidia is seeing more and more industries participate in the demand for its H100 AI chips.
Bank of America (BA): "Now see $50+ EPS power in two years".
⚡ Analysts at Bank of America said Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report suggests a smooth transition to the company's next-generation Blackwell chips, and that's going to lead to massive revenue gains.
Wedbush: "AI revolution just getting started"
⚡ Analysts at Wedbush said the "AI gold rush" is just getting started as a "tidal wave" of spending on AI chips hits the entire tech sector.
Nonetheless, this story is a little bit another, rather than Goldilocks tales.
With more than 25 years of NVDIA shares trading, and an amazing 237000 % profit since NVDA IPO inception in January, 1999, in nowadays it costs approximately as low as 0.20x to S&P500 stock index (SPX equal appr. to 5 (five) NVDA shares in this time).
The main technical graph is a differentials exposure between 5 NVDA shares and SP500 index.
Well.. there're you see 3 clear cases of NVDA shares advantage over the past 25 years:
• Early 2000's when US Interest Rates turned Zero.
• 2007-09 when US Interest Rates again turned Zero.
• Early 2020's when US Interest Rates once again turned Zero.
While FED officials depends on Data, maybe (just maybe) NVDA stocks indeed clearly predict deflationary winds and US Interest Rates at Zero again.
Thanks for happy reading.
😎 Cheers, Pandorra
SPX Showing Signs of Weakness at PCZ of a Bearish Alternate BatThe RSI on the daily has begun to rollover as the SPX appears to have rejected off of the Bearish Alternate Bat HOP level. There does not appear to be much nearby support within the range the SPX is currently trading in so if it gets back below the previous All-Time High I could see it coming back down to around $5100 maybe even $5000 - $4800. This all seems to be brought on by the increase in JGB Yields disrupting the Carry Trade. We may see them try to stabilize the carry trade around $5100 but there is a heightened chance of failure.
More on the carry trade can be seen in the related idea below.
US30 Forecast US30 New Forecast
Nasdaq and S&P 500 Futures Rise on Chip Stock Rally Following Nvidia’s Positive Revenue Forecast
Futures tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the benchmark S&P 500 climbed on Thursday as chip stocks rallied, bolstered by Nvidia's optimistic revenue forecast, which strengthened investor confidence in the rapid growth of artificial intelligence technology.
Traders anticipate the U.S. central bank will reduce interest rates by nearly 40 basis points by year-end (FEDWATCH). Additionally, markets closely monitor economic data scheduled for release throughout the day, including weekly jobless claims, S&P Global flash PMIs, and housing figures.
Technical Side:
As noted in the previous chart, the price corrected to the support line at 39,540.
Now, it will remain in the bullish zone as long as it trades above 39,540, targeting 39,790 and potentially 40,005. However, if it stabilizes below 39,540, the price is likely to drop to 39,360.
Pivot line: 39650
Resistance Prices: 39850, 40005, 40130
Support Prices: 39360, 39070, 38790
The movement range will be between support 39360 and Resistance 40130
BA/SPX: STILL VALUEThought I would give an update. I have done nothing but buy $NYSE:BA. It remains historically undervalued. I just saw some Apache helicopters today, Airbus doesn't have those. These foolish "investors" are selling a staple of American tourism and the American war machine. I will buy as much as possible.
Buy low, sell high.
Will update in a few months.
Long NYSE:BA
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating within a tight range. Expecting a breakout, but with heightened anticipation due to Nvidia's upcoming earnings after the bell.
Important Note: Nvidia earnings after the bell could significantly impact market direction and volatility. Be prepared for potentially large, unpredictable moves.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5335 (major), 5329, 5322 (major), 5307
Major Supports: 5300-02 (major), 5272-68 (major), 5235-40 (major), 5217-21 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5346-49 (major), 5369 (major), 5401-03 (major)
Major Resistances: 5412-15 (major), 5438 (major), 5472-76 (major)
Trading Strategy
Nvidia Earnings Watch: Exercise caution and be prepared for significant volatility following Nvidia's earnings announcement.
Consolidation Breakout: The market is coiling up for a potential explosive move. Focus on the 5302-5347 range for a potential breakout in either direction.
Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5329, 5322, or 5300-02 if they hold after potential tests. Consider taking profits level to level, especially given the heightened risk environment.
Short Opportunities: Avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends, as the win rate is typically low in such scenarios. However, for those comfortable with counter-trend trades, monitor 5412-15 as a potential shorting zone if price rallies significantly after earnings.
Bull Case
Bull Flag Breakout: The current consolidation range could be interpreted as a bull flag. An upward breakout above 5347 would target 5369 and 5401-03, potentially leading to a strong upward move.
Holding Support: If the 5322 support level holds, expect further consolidation and a potential breakout later.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5302 would trigger a deeper retracement, potentially retesting the 5272-68 (major) and 5235-40 (major) zones.
Shorting Opportunity: If 5302 is tested and followed by a bounce and acceptance of lower levels, consider entering a short position around 5299 for a level-to-level move down.
News: Top Stories for May 22nd, 2024
🌐 IMF Highlights Cybersecurity Risks to Financial Stability: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning about the increasing threat of cyberattacks, which pose a significant risk to global financial stability. This underscores the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures across the financial sector.
🏦 Federal Reserve's Cautious Stance on Inflation: Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting reveal a cautious approach towards inflation, with officials prepared to adjust interest rates if economic data warrants. This has implications for future monetary policy and market expectations.
🌍 Global Trade Prospects Brighten: Reports from the IMF, WTO, and OECD suggest a rebound in global trade, driven by easing inflation and a robust U.S. economy. This recovery follows a slowdown in 2023, with significant implications for global economic growth.
📊 Economic Outlooks and Forecasts: Various economic outlooks from entities like J.P. Morgan and Deloitte provide insights into future economic conditions, highlighting the ongoing adjustments in response to geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and policy shifts. These forecasts are crucial for strategic planning and investment decisions.
Bad data is good data... but for how long?Following better-than-expected inflation print for April 2024, investors found once again an excuse for relatively bad data to be good for the market in anticipation of rate cuts, causing the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and other indices to soar to new all-time highs. However, just three or four months ago, the general expectations were for seven rate cuts in 2024, something we quickly ruled out when these assumptions emerged. After data in the first quarter revealed sticky inflation numbers, these expectations dropped dramatically to only one or two rate cuts by the year’s end. Thus, by now, it should probably be out of the question whether the Federal Reserve will continue to prioritize controlling inflation over unemployment, which has also been slowly rising. In fact, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% last month, reaching the highest level since early 2022, when excluding the same print for February 2024. Yet, while the 0.5% increase from the lows does not seem significant, historically, a 1% rise in unemployment has been typically accompanied by a recession. Therefore, even though the rate of increase is slow, unemployment is moving in a concerning direction. Besides that, U-6 unemployment is growing much faster, and there are many other discrepancies in the labor market data, which could potentially hint at a much worse state of the economy that is being reported.
Illustration 1.01
The monthly graph of the unemployment rate in the United States is shown above.
Another interesting detail is that retail sales remained unchanged in April 2024 from the previous month, and the yearly change amounted to 3%, while inflation rose by 3.4% during the same period. In addition to that, the United States ISM PMI contracted last month, and expansion in the United States S&P Global Composite PMI eased. Again, while these are not outright horrible developments, the economic slowdown will likely become even more apparent in the coming months as the FED keeps a tight monetary policy for longer, putting additional pressure on economic activity and exacerbating the challenges faced by various sectors and consumers. With that, the question lingers over how much longer investors will continue to interpret bad data as good in anticipation of something that is not coming and will only serve to confirm the economy is really not faring that well when it comes.
Illustration 1.02
One of the challenges in the current environment is debt servicing. This fact is strongly reflected in soaring delinquencies on credit card loans, which have nearly doubled since the Federal Reserve started the hiking cycle.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Monthly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SPX500 hourly tending to positiveThe SPX500 has some potential positives to it. These just need to convert. We're looking at trend-following indicators and momentum indicators.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) :
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
SPx (it looks bullish)SPX500 New Forecast
The price is expected to attempt to reach the resistance level at 5360. It may correct down to 5304 before resuming its bullish trend.
As long as the price remains above 5320 and 5304, the bullish trend is likely to continue towards 5360. If the price breaks through this level, it is anticipated to reach 5390 and potentially 5480.
Pivot Line: 5313
Resistance Levels: 5360, 5390, 5480
Support Levels: 5293, 5266, 5226
Today’s expected trading range is between the support 5281 and the resistance 5360.
SPX STORYAs you can see, the S&P 500 index closed at a higher price on March 2nd, 2008 than it did on August 1st, 1996. However, it closed at a lower price on March 1st, 2000 than it did on March 2nd, 2008. This means that if you had bought the S&P 500 index on August 1st, 1996, you could have bought it again on March 2nd, 2008 for slightly cheaper. However, if you had bought it on March 1st, 2000, you would have had to wait until February 2013 to see a new market high.
The S&P 500 index has seen a strong upward price movement since breaking out of a 13-year consolidation period in February 2013. The index made a new post dot-com high in February 2013, and then went on to make an all-time high of 4818 in January 2022. As of June 2023, the index is trading at 4282.
I understand that many people believe the S&P 500 index is in a bubble and that we are just experiencing a bear market rally. However, it is important to consider all possibilities, as the market can be humbling. Investors not too long ago lived through a period of over a decade where they saw no new market highs, but were able to buy stocks at a lower price after 13 years.
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Weekly - Potential Resistance Price TestSPY (S&P500 ETF) has been in an uptrend since 2023 and is approaching its all-time-high price resistance again.
$523.07 is the current all-time-high price resistance.
$497.83 is the current support level price, and also the 0.236 fibonacci level.
Bullish Scenario: If SPY price breaks out above $523.07, the next resistance price targets could be: $537, $550, $563, $575.
Bearish Scenario: If SPY price reversse back down, a potential lower-low in the price could be set over time. Support price levels could be: $508, $497, $489, $476, $466.
Note: corporate earnings, FOMC interest rate changes, government legislation, breaking news, and global events could override technical chart patterns.
Date created: 05/10/2024