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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

2024-06-13 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Two legs down from the open to then 3ish legs up to close right under the open price. Market is staying up here which is maximum bullish going into Friday. My target remains 5600 and there is absolutely no reason what so ever, that we can’t print another 100 points up tomorrow. Anything below 5470 would surprise me big time. Bears have no reason to sell this and bulls are making money buying every tick of a dip. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5470 - 5600 bull case: 5472 was a bit lower than expected but who cares, bulls buy it all. Just do the same. For tomorrow I will only look which ema is respected the most to go max long over the day. Invalidation is below 5470. bear case: If bears actually somehow manage to print a lower low below 5470, consider me surprised and I will rethink my plan but for now, bears are scalping as long as they have momentum, when it’s gone, they are out and bulls just print green bars. Invalidation is above 5520. short term: As bullish as one can be. Ride it up. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next weeks. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Market just oscillated around 5500 the whole day. 5486 is big support and was a good buy yesterday and naturally so today if you chose a wider stop or waited for consecutive bull bars.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2
S&P bulls confirm their control; market reaches new highLast week, the Bulls' performance surprised many and some were badly hurt by Wednesday's rally. Followers of this channel, however, hopefully avoided this trap by staying aware that a bullish run was possible given the market's mixed signals. Now, the Bulls have confirmed their control by establishing both a higher low and a new high on the weekly chart. Notably, they managed to maintain this new high into the week’s close. At this point, my bias is 90% bullish. The only concern is the divergence between price action and market internals. While SPX set a new high, there were less stocks reaching new monthly high than lows. Although this isn’t a strong indicator, it’s something to keep in mind if suddenly things start to shift. But until we see clear signs of seller strength, we should remain aligned with the buyers. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Dow 'Big Yikes' moment as it gravely lags behind BigTech rallyA stock-market rally concentrated on an ever-narrowing cohort of tech stocks is leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average behind as the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), Nasdaq-100 hit records, making investors nervous. The scope of the divergence on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq-100 finishing posting a 1.33% gain versus a 0.09% fall for the Dow DJIA was particularly troubling. This is quite rare moment as the Dow posted a daily close more than 1.0 percentage points below Nasdaq-100 Index and more than 0.9% below S&P500 Index. That is a 'Big Yikes' moment. It's largely a statement on very bad breadth of the market, as we're incredibly reliant on just a very small number of names. The rally more recently, he noted, has been driven largely by longtime AI favorite Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), and Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has surged nearly 9% this week as it outlined its own plans to add AI to its products. The Super concentration is manifested in any number of breadth statistics, which track how many stocks in an index are participating in a move, including the percentage of stocks at 52-week highs versus 52-week lows and the percentage above their 200-day moving average. For example, just one component of SP500 Index - that is Nvidia.. had accounted for 35% of the increase in the S&P 500's market cap in 2024. Such a high concentration implies that if NVIDIA continues to rise, then things are fine and dandy. But if it starts to decline, then the market will be hit hard. Overall, presidential-election years tend to be strong ones for the market, particularly in the fourth quarter. And years that begin strong also tend to hold up. But everything could end, earlier or later. The main chart is the ratio between Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Dow Jones (DJI) Indices. That indicates that June quarter posting an extremely new historical high between these two Major indices, first time over the past 25 years. A very historical times we live.
NASDAQ:NDX
by Pandorra
$SPY range $479-$529, the path to the top (and bear market)AMEX:SPY looks to be showing signs of weakness here. Thinking that we could see the first large decline of the year into one of the support levels below $479-$495. Breaking the trend line would be the trigger. If that happens and we do get a low, then I think we'll have one final rally to the upper resistance levels between $525-$530. Another possibility, is we just continue upwards to the top resistance levels and then decline after. Idea of a range is you want to buy the lows (supports on chart) and sell the highs (resistances chart). Regardless of the path we take, we're nearing a top in the market and after we hit those top levels, I expect a large decline lower (one that takes us past the prior 2022 lows). Ultimately looking for SPY to reach the $280-300 level by the end of 2024. But let's save that analysis after we see what happens in this range.
AMEX:SPY
by benjihyam
62
$TSLA Range Bound Trade?NASDAQ:TSLA I took a trading position in this yesterday at $169.55. The idea was that once I saw price rejection after the low of 167.41, it is a reversal play. There is still a good deal of resistance around that blue horizontal line. My idea or thought is that this has been range bound for some time as such it very well could go to that resistance area around $179 which is about a 5% move from my entry. I plan on selling some into that area and then decide to hold or sale if does or does not climb over that area. The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by jaxdog
S&P 500 Hit Record Highs for Third Consecutive Day!!!S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis The S&P 500 ( OANDA:SPX500USD ) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated, successfully reaching the projected targets. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) result being released at 3.3% as we expected, the index tested its final resistance level of 5450. Intraday Analysis: Today, the price may stabilize within the bearish zone, attempting to break through the pivot line at 5423. Bullish Scenario: The price is likely to consolidate between 5423 and 5450. A breakout above 5450 would activate the next bullish trend, targeting 5484. Bearish Scenario: Should the price close a 4-hour or 1-hour candle below 5423, it is expected to decline towards 5384 and potentially 5372, thereby reaching the demand zone. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5423 - Resistance Levels: 5450, 5484, 5520 - Support Levels: 5383, 5347, 5320 Today's Expected Trading Range: The anticipated movement range for today is between the resistance at 5450 and the support at 5372. In summary, maintaining a position above 5450 supports a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5423 indicates a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5372. Previous idea: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Record Highs for Third Consecutive Day Amid Fed's Interest Rate Forecast The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, driven by unexpectedly mild inflation data. However, these indexes retreated from their intraday peaks following the Federal Reserve's announcement that it projects only one interest rate cut this year. In a significant shift from its March projections, which included three quarter-percentage-point reductions, the Fed concluded its June 11-12 meeting by stating it would leave its policy rate unchanged, as anticipated by the market. The stock market experienced volatility after the news and the subsequent press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pared their gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day nearly flat. Stocks opened higher after the Labor Department reported that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unexpectedly unchanged in May, due to a decline in gasoline prices. This softer inflation data initially fueled market optimism. "The CPI number was certainly cooler than estimates and drove optimism to start the day, but that was only half of today's menu," noted Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles. The mixed signals from the inflation data and the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts created a complex trading environment, leaving investors to navigate between optimism and uncertainty.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to the area of 5443 level.Dear colleagues, since the 5351 level has been broken, I believe that wave “2” has been completed, which means that wave “3”, which consists of five small waves, is currently developing. Now I assume that either the price will continue the small wave “1”, or will form a small wave “2” in the area of 61.8% Fibonacci level, then continue the upward movement to the area of 5443 level. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
10
SPX Continues Its Bullish Trend (CPI + FED RATE)SP500 Index Technical Analysis SPX Continues Its Bullish Trend The price successfully retested and pushed higher, reaching our previously mentioned target. Today's Outlook: The market is maintaining its bullish trend, aiming for approximately 5420. The release of the CPI data today will significantly impact the market. A CPI reading below 3.4% is expected to be positive for indices, potentially driving the SPX to a new all-time high. Bullish Scenario: As long as trades above 5372 means will continue the bullish trend toward 5420 Bearish Scenario: If the price trades below 5372, it indicates a potential drop towards 5347. A breach of 5347 could further lead to 5320. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the downward area, with the next target at 5260. - Pivot Line: 5372 - Resistance Levels: 5404, 5422, 5484 - Support Levels: 5347, 5320, 5301 Today's Expected Trading Range: - Support: 5320 - Resistance: 5480 In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301. Our Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Cancellation of “Head-and-Shoulders” Pattern. Bears trapThe "Head-and-Shoulders" (H&S) pattern is considered a powerful trend reversal indicator. However, it can also become very costly for new traders. Yesterday, the S&P provided a great example of H&S cancellation. Traders who entered short on the break-out of the shoulders line (and Monday's low) incurred losses after the price returned to the previous day's range and rallied all the way up. Such scenarios happen more often than you might think. To avoid being caught in such traps, it is important to consider two things: 1. Higher Level Context : In this example, the H&S pattern formed on the hourly time frame. But if we zoom out, we'll see that on the weekly chart, the price is in a strong uptrend, currently making new historical highs. This is a very bullish context, with buyers having full control over the price. 2. Price Behavior on the Break-out : Upon confirmation of a reversal pattern, you should expect sellers to jump in and drive the price down as fast as possible. It is "abnormal" to see the price returning to the previous range and gaining acceptance. This is a trigger that something is not right. Some people will add volume analysis on the break-out, but I’m personally not a fan of it, especially for SPY.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Dax continues with daily new lows in a two-sided market. Nasdaq made another ath 48 points higher and broke above it’s wedge. Mixed markets going into tomorrows CPI and FOMC releases. I expect nothing less of a firework to either direction. For sp500 and nasdaq I expect a complete blow-off top if CPI is not really hot and then only Jpow can save the bears. For nasdaq at this point the 20000 target is absolutely reasonable and in reach. If the numbers align tomorrow, we will see more bear slaughter. Commodities had a trading range day. Gold is trying to grind higher but new highs get sold off hard on bigger volume and oil is keeping it above 77, which is very bullish imo. Bulls can probably get another leg up to 80 again. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bulls got their big leg up to a new ath again. It’s still not breaking clearly above 5400, which would make all bears capitulate so we can melt to 5500 or higher. It’s a clear trading range with small higher highs. Everything below 5340 is bought, so you know exactly where to buy. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5387 bull case: Again, I can not go full-bull because we are still inside the trading range. Tomorrow will bring a big move to either side. Bull targets have been in my weekly chart for many months now. On the daily chart you can draw multiple bull wedges and market broke above the smallest today. Confirmation would be above 5400. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: Bears had a rather strong EU session but bulls gave em the finger with bar 10 and a 40 point reversal. They need to keep it below 5400 or I think many stops will be triggered and bears will give up. If bears get help from CPI or Jpow tomorrow, 5300 is the obvious first target and below that comes last week’s low 5200. TBH I can see a move down to 5155, which is the 50% pb from this trading range 4935 - 5385. If CPI prints hot and Jpow hammers on top, the market will have to react because it is not positioned for any risk what so ever. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: Bearish here at 5386 for at least 5355 again. Invalid above 5400. Don’t trade tomorrow’s news events. It’s mostly gambling. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 5340 or since bar 10. No if’s or buts. Has worked the last days so expect it to work again until it clearly stops working.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX Continues Bullish Trend After RetestSPX Continues Bullish Trend After Retest The SPX has completed its retest and subsequently pushed higher, maintaining its bullish trend. As long as the index trades above the key levels of 5347 and 5320, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. This week, the SPX is projected to reach the initial target of 5378, with the potential to advance further towards 5423. Bullish Scenario: the price has a bullish trend to reach 5378 as long as trades above 5347, breaking 5378 means will continue the bullish trend to get 5423 Bearish Scenario: If the price trades below 5347, it indicates a potential drop towards 5320. A breach of 5320 could further lead to 5301. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the bearish area, with the next target at 5260. Key Level - Pivot Line: 5347 - Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423 - Support Levels: 5320, 5301, 5260 Today's Expected Trading Range: - Support: 5320 - Resistance: 5420 In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5385 bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema. Invalidation is below 5350. bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX500 trading in bullish channelThere was some volatility in the market last week. Nevertheless, the SPX500 is trading in a bullish area. The longer this is maintained and the RSI remains above 50 the greater the likelihood of higher prices ahead. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) : CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) : Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
SP500 Index Technical AnalysisSP500 Index Technical Analysis The SP500 index appears poised for a retest of the 5320 level. A break below 5320 would likely lead the index to touch 5301. Bullish Scenario: For the bullish trend to continue, the price must stabilize above 5347. If it does, the next target will be 5375. Breaking through 5375 could lead to new record highs. Bearish Scenario: If the price trades below 5347, it indicates a potential drop towards 5320. A breach of 5320 could further lead to 5301. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the bearish area, with the next target at 5260. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5347 - Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423 - Support Levels: 5320, 5301, 5260 Today's Expected Trading Range: - Support: 5301 - Resistance: 5375 In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX: supported by jobs data Increasing unemployment is not suggesting that the economy is in its perfect shape, however, under current circumstances, markets are reacting positively to such news. This comes from their optimistic view that the rise in unemployment would push Fed officials to decrease interest rates and in this sense, create better conditions for the future growth of the economy. The S&P 500 started the previous week at the level of 5.238, however, during the week was in a bullish mood and hit new ATH on Friday's trading session, after posted jobs data in the US. New highest level reached was 5.371. The index is closing the week at the level of 5.346. This was another winning week of the index, with a weekly gain of 1.32%, supported by macro data and also robust corporate earnings, and tech companies. The week ahead brings FOMC meetings and rate decisions. Also Fed`s economic projections will be discussed. This might bring back some volatility on the markets, especially if Fed Chair Powell communicates any new information that the market did not price in the previous period. However, for the moment, investors' optimism still holds strongly over the course of the US economy in the coming period.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPY still bullish, holding both the 1D MA50 and MA100.Last time we looked at SPY (May 01, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signal following the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) bottom and we are already well into new All Time High territory: As you can see, the price hit the top of the short-term (dotted) Channel Up and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This inability to break above the Channel Up, leads us to believe that it will continue to be the dominant pattern, instead of the long-term (blue) Channel Up, and will dictate the price action higher but only gradually. Another test of the 1D MA100 is possible under those conditions that will allow for a smooth hit on our 555.00 long-term Target. If however the dashed line holds, it is possible to see an even more aggressive Channel Up materializing, in which case we will move our Target even higher at 580.00, in order to represent a Bullish Leg similar to January - February 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradingShot
1
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: Monday and Tuesday were bullish dojis on the daily chart but bears finally gave up on Wednesday where we did all of the points gained for last week. I said that the bear case was weak at best and that stays the same, until bears will get below the breakout bar and price of 5300. That levels needs to become resistance, for bears to have a shot. I do think the price action speaks more of a leg inside a trading range and we just made a higher high, but if bulls can get above 5400, that take is wrong and we are in W5 which could bring us to 5500/5600. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. It’s unclear. We do not get consecutive bull trend bars on the daily chart since first half of May. The daily chart makes higher prices but only through spikes, followed by pull-backs or dojis. This is not behaving like a leg in a strong bull trend. key levels: 5300 - 5400 bull case: Market refuses to go down but it’s not as bullish as it seems. A deeper pull-back is around the corner imo. Bulls are still in full control and could get another spike up, if market chooses to front-run the events or interpret the news as bullish. Chart is clear imo, W5 can lead to 5500 or higher but for that to happen, bulls need a strong break above this wedge top. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears gave up on Wednesday after trying on Monday and Tuesday. The only thing they had going for them over the last 15 weeks was, that they kept weekly closes below 5300, which should have been bigger resistance. Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, it’s just bullish, despite the up moves getting weaker and bulls only get single spikes and no follow through. No matter if we get a W5 up, market will have a deeper pull-back like the one from April to below 5000. We will at least touch the bull trend line again over the next couple of weeks, if not break it. Bears need consecutive daily closes below 5300 for that to happen. Invalidation is above 5400. outlook last week: “ Neutral until bulls get follow through. I do think bulls are favored but we are right at the upper bull flag line and it’s a weak bear trend inside this bull flag until bulls stop the lower lows and make higher highs again. ” → Last Sunday we traded 5295 and now we are at 5355. 5260 was my target for the bears and the weekly low as 5246. The lows held and bulls pushed it above 5350, which was my bullish target. So both prices I laid out got hit. short term: Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. —unchanged current swing trade: Not interested in buying up here, except intraday scalps. If CPI comes in hot, I will initiate new long term shorts. Chart update: Removed the bull flag, that’s it.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Fed Expected to Hold Rates Amid Mixed Economic IndicatorsFed Expected to Hold Rates Amid Mixed Economic Indicators Focus on CPI Data and Rate Decision: Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision are in the spotlight. This follows rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank last week. However, the Fed is not expected to follow suit—at least not immediately. CPI Growth Expectations: U.S. CPI growth for May is anticipated to remain steady at 3.4% year-over-year. Energy prices likely declined in May as oil prices edged lower, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to decrease slightly to 3.5% from 3.6% in April. This reflects a more normal 0.2% month-over-month increase. Additionally, home rent price growth is projected to slow, alongside a decrease in the core services ex-rent measure that Fed policymakers closely monitor. In April, this measure increased by 0.4%, down from an average of 0.7% per month over the first quarter of the year. Inflation Pressure Measures: The diffusion index, which gauges the breadth of inflation pressures, has shown little improvement recently. Fed policymakers believe the current interest rates are restrictive enough to eventually bring inflation back to the 2% target. Firm U.S. employment numbers in May, including a slight increase in wage growth, indicate no immediate pressure on the Fed to lower rates. Interest Rate Outlook: Our base case scenario suggests that the Fed will not be in a position to cut interest rates until December. This assumption hinges on the expectation that economic growth and inflation will slow in the coming months. Technical Analysis: SP500 Index Outlook Weekly Chart Analysis: The SP500 index recently retested its support line at 5260, stabilizing in a bullish zone. This suggests a continuation of the upward trend towards targets of 5423 and 5500, particularly if the CPI comes in below 3.4%. Bullish Scenario: As long as the price remains above 5260, the bullish trend is expected to continue, targeting 5425 and 5500, potentially reaching a new all-time high. Bearish Scenario: For a bearish trend to emerge, the price must fall below the support line at 5260, which could then lead to targets of 5040 and 4923. Key Levels: Pivot Price: 5320 Support Levels: 5260, 5193, 4930 Resistance Levels: 5423, 5520, 5600 Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance at 5525 and the support at 5260. Overall Tendency: The outlook appears bullish.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
US30 (Sensitive movements)Technical Analysis The price movement will be influenced by the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Unemployment rates. Based on current expectations, the price is likely to exhibit a downtrend, though the market may experience random fluctuations. There is a possibility for a retest up to 38,790, followed by an upward push towards 39,050. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the support level at 38790, it could decline to 38580. Sustained trading below this level may lead to a further drop to 38400. Bullish Scenario: Stability above 38,790 indicates a potential bullish trend, targeting 39,050. Pivot Line: 38790 Resistance Levels: 39050, 39350, 39700 Support Levels: 38580, 38400, 38290 Today's expected movement range is between the support level at 38400 and the resistance level at 39350 Summary: Downtrend Expected: Market influenced by NFP and Unemployment rates. Potential Retest: Price may rise to 38,790. Upward Movement : Post-retest, the price could push up to 39,050. previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPx (Correction after rally or finished) Technical Analysis of SPx the price will move under the NFP and the Unemployment rate pressure, so the movement will be huge for the indices. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 5260, potentially pushing up to 5302. If the price surpasses this level, it may indicate the start of a new bullish trend of about 5347. but right now as long as the price trades above 5347 means will try to touch 5378 as well. Bearish Scenario: if the price breaks 5347 means will drop to touch 5320 and then downward should break the support zone which is 5301 to get 5259 Pivot Line: 5347 Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423 Support Levels: 5320, 5302, 5260 Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5301 and the resistance at 5423. Market Concentration Hits Record Levels with Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL For the first time since at least 2000, three U.S. stocks—Microsoft Corp., Nvidia Corp., and Apple Inc.—now account for over 20% of the S&P 500's total value, according to Dow Jones Market Data. This means that these three companies alone are worth more than hundreds of other constituents combined, as highlighted by data from Bespoke Investment Group. Historically, increasing concentration in a few large-cap stocks has often coincided with stronger overall returns for the S&P 500. However, the rapid rise in the values of these tech giants is causing some concern among investors. Even those who have been bullish are starting to feel uneasy about the growing dominance of these few stocks within the index.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi