SPX (S&P 500 Index)
SPX at Great Depression and Dot-Com Crash LevelsCurrent deviation from long term mathematical model at the top of trend only reached twice in the last 100 years; once during the Great Depression and once during the top of the Dot-Com bubble.
Mathematical model = Ratio of Close to smoothed 300 Week SMA (SMA 10 of SMA 10 of SMA 70 Week Close)
DreamAnalysis | SPX500 at a Crossroads Key Trading Strategies✨ Today’s Focus: SPX500 (US500) – A Key Market Driver
We dive into recent price movements and analyze critical market levels to identify potential trends.
📊 Current Market Overview:
The price is currently consolidating within the Previous Weekly Range, showing little movement for now. However, it's important to note that the Previous Month's High (PMH) has already been taken, and the market needs to accumulate more liquidity before making a decisive move—hence the consolidation.
🔴 What to Expect: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Scenarios
We'll explore both short-term and long-term outlooks, offering insights into bullish and bearish possibilities for day traders.
🗣 Short-Term Outlook:
In the short term, we may see a retracement into the Fair Value Zone or the Equilibrium (50% of the range). However, without significant information from higher timeframes, it's best to wait for lower timeframe confirmations before entering a trade.
🗣 Long-Term Outlook:
From a long-term perspective, the price may dip lower to absorb sell-side liquidity before continuing its upward trend.
🕓 Key Levels to Watch:
Keep an eye on these levels, which could impact price action:
- PMH: Previous Month High
- PML: Previous Month Low
- PWH: Previous Week High
- PWL: Previous Week Low
- BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
- SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity
- Daily FVG: Fair Value Gap (Imbalance Zone)
These levels highlight potential liquidity absorption points and areas where price might rebalance. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are key zones for potential retracement before the market resumes its trend.
🔔 1Hour Outlook:
📈 Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish setup, we need the Previous Week Low (PWL) to be taken out, or we can use the lower timeframes to identify Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) levels. Once price sweeps these liquidity levels, we can look for an entry model to target the Buy-Side Liquidity, such as the Previous Week High (PWH).
📉 Bearish Scenario:
On the bearish side, lower timeframes are already offering potential entry models. With the monthly high (PMH) taken and a Smart Money Technique (SMT) divergence with the NASDAQ (US100), there’s a strong confluence for bearish continuation.
📝 Conclusion:
Stay flexible as market conditions shift. Monitor these key levels and setups closely to fine-tune your strategy and seize high-probability trading opportunities.
🔮 Looking Ahead:
Keep following as we track developments in NASDAQ, DXY, EUR/USD, and other major markets. Timely insights will be provided as trends unfold.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
S&P500 Has it topped?The S&P500 index (SPX) is ahead of critical crossroads for the short-term as the Bullish Megaphone pattern that is in effect since April 01, is showing strong signs of topping.
Even though the price isn't on the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Megaphone, the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross today and practically is repeating the sequence of the index' previous Leg from April 19 to July 17, which ended also on a MACD Bearish Cross.
As you can see besides the Bearish Cross, even the price action between the two fractals has gone through very similar phases. The current Bullish Leg is in the form of a Rising Wedge.
Despite the Bearish Cross, the trend remains bullish within this pattern until the Wedge's bottom breaks. As a result, it is more likely to see at least 6000 next. If however the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will have a confirmed sell signal at hand, based on which we will short and target 5600.
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S&P 500 Is Higher Than Ever. Can Earnings Support the Growth?Tech giants are in the waiting room, prepping their financial updates while investors drool over prospects of AI-fueled revenues. The season kicked off with Wall Street banks posting some convincing numbers for the September quarter, painting an optimistic outlook for Corporate America’s biggest and brightest players.
The S&P 500 is hot, hot, hot. Investors just can’t get enough of the 500-strong index and last Friday they pushed it to its 47th record closing high of the year. And they did it with finesse — on the eve of the 37th anniversary of the “Black Monday” market crash. (On Oct. 19, 1987, the S&P 500 wiped out a record 20% and the Nasdaq shed 12%.) Broadly, US indexes are having a bumper year, with most of them up double digits or more.
With no time to waste, markets are shifting their attention to the looming slate of big tech earnings reports . Here’s what’s going to be turning heads this week:
📌 On Wednesday , EV maker Tesla TSLA will be the main character in the world of corporate updates. Wall Street is eyeballing earnings north of $25.4 billion, up from $23.4 billion in the year-ago quarter. Besides Elon Musk’s EV giant, Wednesday will bring earnings from Coca Cola KO , Boeing BA , IBM IBM and telecoms mainstays T-Mobile TMUS and AT&T T .
📌 On Thursday , the earnings roll keeps rolling in with e-commerce and cloud computing juggernaut Amazon AMZN reporting after the closing bell.
But all that earnings action looks fairly light — wait till you see what’s cooking for next week. *drumroll please* … 🥁
The Magnificent Seven club of tech highflyers will be represented by four of its members. (Tesla and Amazon report the prior week and Nvidia NVDA reports in about a month from now.)
📌 On October 29 , Google parent Alphabet GOOGL is scheduled to report earnings figures. Shares of the tech heavyweight are up about 18% on the year but got stuck recently after the Department of Justice filed a range of possible changes aimed at reducing Google’s search dominance.
📌 On October 30 , Facebook parent Meta META and Microsoft MSFT will reveal how they fared in the three months through September. Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta flaunts a massive 65% year-to-date increase (and some new glow-up for its loose-shirt-wearing tech bro founder.) Microsoft, on the other hand, is up by a more modest clip of 12%.
📌 On October 31 , Apple AAPL will release its highly-anticipated earnings data that will include a glimpse into how well the new iPhone 16 is selling . Shares of Apple are up roughly 27% for the year.
These seven mega-cap corporate giants are expected to show an 18% rise in third-quarter profits, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. If materialized, that would be substantially slower than the 36% seen in the second quarter. The sheer size of the pack accounts for about 30% of the total market cap of the S&P 500 (which not long ago celebrated its $50 trillion milestone .) Nvidia and Apple alone are worth more than $7 trillion combined.
What’s on your radar for this earnings season? Are you waiting for a tech giant to dip or maybe you're after a bank stock or a car conglomerate? Share your comments below!
SPX Grand Super Cycle- Possible Target $ 6000 to 7000There is no denial for a short-term pullback in the market, which will be healthy for the market.
Also lots of speculation/leverage in the current market
So the market maker may shake out the weak hands soon.
If we see SPX in the quarterly chart Wave 1 started in 1976 and ended in 2000 which was around 26 years.
Wave 2 was from 2001 to 2009. Total nine years for wave two corrections.
Wave 3 started in 2009 and correction in 2020 March was quick just two months correction (Most probable it should not be wave 4 correction). This can be a nest (each wave is built of smaller waves and, at the same time, each wave is a part of a bigger wave) and wave II of a second nest.
In my opinion, there would be two probable scenarios, the first one is SPX is still in wave three and it will go to 6000/7000 in this decades.
As if we go with SPX Grand Super Cycle then- possible targets can be 4700 to 5000 or more before a major crash (Wave 4 correction multi-years) happen and after the wave 4 correction wave 5 targets can be 6000 to 7000 or more
The second one is to complete wave 5 around 4600 to 5300 and 60-80 % crash to 1500 - 2000
So just remember a sharp correction/crash wouldn’t be the end of the world, it will be an opportunity to invest for the long term
Trend-based fib extension support the first scenario.
This is just my view please share your views in the comment section.
Thank you
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute financial advice. It is for educational purposes only,
S&P500: Best buy entry the 4H MA100.S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.185, MACD = 62.800, ADX = 52.249) but neutral on 4H, which given the long-term bullish trend, has started to ring the first buy signals. Technically though, a better opportunity would exist on the 4H MA100 and not the 4H MA50 which was just tested. In fact, the last HL of the 5 week Channel Up was priced on the 4H MA100 when the 4H RSI broke under 40.00 (bearish). We will buy when those conditions are fulfilled and aim for another +3.50% rise (TP = 6,000).
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$SPX Today's closing price is importantHey traders! As shown on the chart, we are inside of my TS Contraction Pattern, we also have my elliott wave count.
If we close below 1st Validation level today, I'm going short.
Closing my short if we close above the invalidation level today or later on, so consider that as a stoploss
US500 continues to trade around the all time highs.SPX500USD - 24H EXPIRY
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Posted mild net daily gains but all trading confined to the previous days range, an indecisive Inside Day.
The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 5901 from 5682 to 5766.
Due to an Ending Wedge formation, we continue to treat extended gains with caution.
Reverse trend line resistance comes in at 5898.
We look to Buy at 5848 (stop at 5823)
Our profit targets will be 5898 and 5905
Resistance: 5892 / 5898 / 5901
Support: 5848 / 5770 / 5766
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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S&P Bulls Hold Strong, But Is a Market Cooldown Coming?Last week wasn't particularly remarkable. Despite two bearish attacks (on Tuesday and Thursday), buyers still managed to push the market to a new historical high. It was somewhat concerning that they couldn’t sustain the high for even an hour after the open, but since the bearish movement didn’t gain momentum on Friday, the bulls still have the upper hand. We may see some consolidation in the upcoming weeks, as there are signs that the rally is approaching exhaustion (weakening of upthrust, weekly RSI entering the overbought zone, weakness in XLK). However, this market has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience and ability to exceed expectations.
The long-term outlook remains bullish, but given these signals, it would be prudent for buyers to downsize their positions and refrain from selling PUTs.
Mind TSLA report on Wednesday as it can cause some volatility and act as a trigger.
Are we setting up for a 5-10% pullback pre-election?AMEX:SPY looks exhausted here and everyone is extremely bullish at the highs. Sentiment is at extremes and we have demark combo 13s that triggered at the end of last week. On top of that, we've been moving up in a rising wedge that looks set to break down.
Also, if we look at the chart, there's an imbalance in price action as we have largely gone straight up since the August 5th low and the area I've highlighted hasn't been retested at support.
All this leads me to believe that we should see a 5-10% pullback in the next couple of weeks prior to the election. Why in the next two weeks?
From a candlestick perspective, we're starting a new 2D, 3D, 2W, 3W candle today which leaves the possibility open of a trend change to start today. I expect the move to play out before the election.
I'm playing this idea solely through volatility calls which I averaged into Wednesday-Friday last week.
Let's see if it plays out.
Market Forecast $SPX (Oct 20th—> Oct 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 10/20/2024)
SPX - Economic data for September was very good and supported the soft landing narrative for the stocks to go up, Based on NFLX ER, the TECH sector is still strong and bullish.
Next resistance: 5,891 and then 5,913
Next support: 5,750, followed by 5,560
Weekly Sentiment: Mixed/Consolidation Period
SPX Will Grow! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,865.92.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,134.21 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Replace a 100 000 USD salary with income from trading🔸 Develop a Strong Foundation in Forex Trading
Before considering Forex as a full-time source of income, it’s essential to build a solid foundation in trading.
▪️Learn the Basics: Understand Forex fundamentals such as how currency pairs work, how to read charts, how the market operates, and how global economic events affect price movements.
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▪️Define Your Trading Style: Determine whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, based on your risk tolerance, time availability, and financial goals.
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Forex trading requires sufficient capital to replace a salary and generate consistent income.
▪️Set Realistic Capital Requirements: The amount of capital you need will depend on how much monthly income you need and how much risk you are willing to take. Generally, to replace a full-time salary with Forex income, you will need significant capital (likely in the range of $50,000–$100,000 or more). This amount allows you to generate enough returns without taking excessive risks.
▪️Calculate Your Required Return on Investment (ROI): Let’s say you need $3,000 per month to replace your salary. If you have a $100,000 account, you would need a 3% return per month. If your account is smaller (e.g., $10,000), you would need a much higher (and riskier) 30% return, which is unrealistic in the long run.
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SP500 Secondary Trend. Bowl + handle. Resistance zone. 11 2023Logarithm. Large timeframe 1 week. On the chart a big bowl, you can say already with a handle, the price is testing the resistance of the previous market highs for the 3rd time (entering this zone). Breaking through it, this resistance will become a very strong support during the pumping (probability no more).
Simplifying the complex is the key to success.
Complicating the simple is a guarantee for your own confusion and mistakes on the plain.
It is based on knowledge and experience, which always leads to simplification of actions, not to complication !!!!
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
1️⃣ The increase in % rates will stop closer to the US presidential election, which is logical.
2️⃣ Before elections, the ruling party always shows the people the positive in its work for the people, even if there is none, i.e. injects money into the economy.
3️⃣ Handing out "free money" to potential voters before elections. Who will take it to the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
4️⃣ Changing the bear market cycle to a conventionally bullish one in 2024 and a bullish one in 2025.
5️⃣ Overcoming previous all-time highs, this is the third time we have tested this resistance of the SP500 index.
In other words, everything is as always. Before the elections, “everyone is good” and is pushing the economy up. USA together with the Fed. Only the so-called “black swan” can influence this, whether it is real (there are no such things) or staged, it doesn’t really matter. But, this is all a hypothetical probability, nothing more, which must always be kept in mind. Therefore, when the market rises, protect your profits with stop losses or hedge with correlated positions. As a rule, nothing happens, and if it does, the event itself is always inflated by the media and bloggers tens of times in importance, thereby creating the illusion of fear. Don't fall for such tricks, either.
The present, and especially the future, is not always a projection of a repetition of the past. It may be conditionally the same, but the details are radically different. This must always be remembered.
On linear, it looks like this:
The main trend of the index More than 100 years for clarity. Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. The whole trend. Anniversary 100 years
Vertical growth by +372% (madness, super pump)
Before the super collapse of the “Great Depression” Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
The game controls the people, not the people the game. The concept of a lot is always replaced by a little, a little more, until all their expectations “burst” from greed. This encourages some to become wiser, some, on the contrary, the closer the abyss, the cuter the devils.
Can NVDA hit 200 USD in Q1 2025?🔸Time to update the NVDA trade setup, previously was expecting
a correction in this market, based on fundamentals we are definitely
overextended, however NVDA so far is trading purely based on momentum
ignoring the fundumentals. It's the star stock of the 2024 stock market.
🔸Previous strong uptrend, we broke above key psychological S/R at 100 usd. Right now we got a compression setup, expecting limited upside / pullback heading into US elections, having said that probably any downside beyond 115/120 usd is very limited. current floor set at 100/110 USD.
🔸Compressing into wedge formation, most likely we will break out
to the upside following a shallow pullback in November 2024.
Also November/December is a very strong seasonal period for US stock
market, so it's really hard to recommend short selling NVDA.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback near 114/118 USD
in November going into elections, limited downside beyond 110 USD.
BUY/HOLD near 114/118 TP bulls is 200 USD, which is almost 75% upside.
Most likely we will reach target somewhere in Q1 2025, probably January.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TSLA Best Level to BUY/HOLD 30% gains ABCD fractal🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for TSLA.
Recently we gapped down back into trading range, based on previous
update I still maintain neutral outlook until we complete the
re-accumulation structure, details see idea below.
🔸Having said that I'm expecting a decent 30% bounce in TSLA based
on the ABCD price fractal. ABCD fractal from 2023 projected into
the current market structure, point D expected near 188 usd timewise
most likely December/January. This will be a good reload for the bulls.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for pullback to complete
near 188 / point D and BUY/hold for a 30% bounce play. Exit/TP at 250 USD.
good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
2024-10-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears hoped for a second leg down and build decent selling pressure but bulls bought the dip. Nothing unexpected and we likely continue sideways at the highs until bears give up again or more bulls get exhausted and want to secure profits. Technically I expect another leg down but we could retest the highs first. Don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
comment: 5850 was the low yesterday and bears could not break below. Weak bears gave up and we closed around the 50% pullback from Tuesday’s selling. Where does this leave us? Nowhere. 5890ish is the worst place to trade now because it’s the exact mid point of this trading range. Wait for strong momentum or until we reach one of the extremes again. These bullish earnings should have taken the market higher by now if you ask me. So there is a decent chance we are forming a credible top. 5850 - 5920 is the current range and until we see the MAG7 earnings, it probably won’t break out of it.
current market cycle: bull trend (bull wedge)
key levels: 5850 - 5920
bull case: Bulls bought the dip, no surprise there. They want 5900+ next and they will probably continue to buy 5850. No more magic to this. Since it was a bullish close, bulls are very slightly favored higher tomorrow but I would not buy 5886 right now.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Bears tried and failed. They have to make the market more neutral and trade sideways until more bulls want out of their position. BTFD is still strong. Anything above 5850 is bullish and bears have to scalp. Earnings will probably set the next impulse to either side.
Invalidation is above 5920.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Long the double bottom with yesterday’s low. Very obvious trade that worked greatly.
SPX500 Pattern Repeating with EERIE overlayThe REAL S&P500 Index is plotted here from the data on SP:SPX and FRED:CPIAUCSL which is CPI-All Urban Consumers which allows us to see the "REAL", or inflation-adjusted S&P500 (excluding dividends) over the long term.
Most people forget the impact that inflation has on the price of stocks because it gets complicated and small increases in price compound significantly over the the long term.
So, to get down to the impact of this pattern that I have reported on several times in the past (see links below), the market has had a long sequence of progress along with crises along the way in the form of financial panics, tax-law changes, banking system stress, real estate market collapses, trade wars and technological innovation cycles.
To break it down into the pattern, take a note of the 1955-1985 time frame and notice how there is a "mode" across that time frame which touches 13 different years.
In 1984 the market "expands" upwards as denoted by the yellow triangle, surging up by more than the previous year's range, which implies the start of a new trend. In this case, the trend is estimated to be 13 years because 13 years touched the same price. 1984 + 13 years sets up a new mode in 1997 which is where the new mode formed through 2012.
In 2013, the market surged upwards or "expanded" higher to indicate a new 11 year uptrend since there were 11 different years that touched the mode as shown.
The INTERESTING PART is that we had similar types of activities AFTER this new trend kicked off: Notice the yellow circle which encompasses the 1987 stock market crash and 1990 bear market in a wild, sideways, choppy market environment.
The same thing also happened after the current uptrend started with the 2016 election, 2020 covid crisis and even later the 2022 bear market (which is outside the circle).
The GREEN "BARS PATTERN" is a copy of the 1984-current market and then pasted to the start of the same structure in 2013 where the current uptrend started from the 'mode'.
Look how the market has moved rather in-synch with this pattern and I haven't even adjusted it for the 2-less years at the mode or 4 less years overall for the pattern from 1955-1984 (20 total years vs 13 years at one price) vs the 1997-2012 (16 total years vs 11 at one price).
We can start analyzing similar news and technological changes to look for interesting stories to compare the two time frames. See what you can find.
The AI craze now is certainly similar to the development of the internet bubble in the late 1990's. We have certainly heard this comparison before but this nails down the comparison into a more structural pattern that can be analyzed and used for making general projections.
I'll follow up on this and let me know if you have any questions.
Tim
10/16/2024 10:19AM EST
S&P500 If it holds this level, it can rise up to 6050.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong short-term pull-back yesterday, which is so far contained within the tight levels of a Channel Up pattern. The price is right at the bottom of it and if it holds, we can expect a strong rally continuation for the next 2 weeks, going into the U.S. elections.
This sequence is so far similar to the previous Channel Up patterns that emerged after the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Once broken, it held right until their tops, which were after a +6.50% rise.
This is why, if this holds once more, we expect to see 6050 (+6.50% from the bottom) by the end of the month.
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