SPX (S&P 500 Index)
$SPX and Economic DataI do not know how long this has been available on @TradingView , but I just discovered it and wanted to make sure if you didn't know about it, I would bring it too your attention.
On the SP:SPX chart at the bottom when economic data is going to be announced or recently announced, click on the "Flag" icon(s) to see what it is. For example, jobless claims, unemployment, CPI and a host of others.
I hope this post helps someone. Great Tool TV!
Okay, for some reason when I post this chart the flags did not show. But look at your own SP:SPX chart and you will see them.
SPX has formed an island reversal patternYesterday, the SPX formed an opening gap and erased some of its recent gains, which was accompanied by nearly a 10% jump in the VIX. What is particularly interesting about this is the formation of the island reversal pattern on the daily chart. The formation of this topping pattern and simultaneous rise in the VIX after a period of strong gains in the U.S. equity markets alerts us. However, calling the market top and subsequent breakdown would be too premature. To support a thesis about a trend reversal, we would like to see a further fall in the RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart and a continuation of the rise in the VIX. Contrarily, to support a case for bullish continuation, we would like to see a breakdown in the VIX (ideally below the lower trendline shown in Illustration 1.02) and mentioned technicals reverse back to the upside.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the island reversal pattern on the SPX’s daily chart. Yellow arrows indicate opening gaps and the island.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of VIX, which bounced off the lower trendline.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
3/8 Friday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Friday
Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5155 (major), 5146, 5140, 5133 (major), 5125 (major), 5118, 5113, 5106 (major), 5101, 5088-92 (major), 5084, 5073, 5065, 5057-60 (major), 5052, 5046, 5040, 5032-29 (major), 5022, 5018, 5013 (Major), 4998-5000 (major), 4994, 4987, 4983 (major), 4976, 4965-70 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5155-58 (major), 5167, 5175, 5190 (major), 5197-5200, 5209 (major), 5217, 5229-32 (major), 5243, 5254, 5262-65 (major), 5272 (major), 5282, 5287 (major), 5300 (major), 5308, 5316 (major), 5331, 5344 (major).
Trading Strategy:
Capital Preservation Friday: Prioritize capital protection ahead of aggressive positions. Limit risk exposure to 20% of previous gains.
Cautious Longs: Focus on potential longs at 5155, 5133, 5125, and particularly 5106. Look for bounces or reclaims of support levels for long entries.
NFP Volatility: Anticipate heightened volatility and potential traps in the 30 minutes following the NFP data release at 8:30 AM. Approach with caution.
Bull Case:
Trend Continuation: Bulls remain in control on longer time frames. A successful defense of the 5155 level and ideally, the 5133 support, would pave the way for a base-building pattern below 5170 before retesting 5190 and the macro magnet levels above.
Adding on Strength: Monitor for potential bull flags above 5150 or failed breakdowns of flag supports for long entries.
Bear Case:
Breakdown Signals: A breakdown below 5146 may signal a move down the levels. Watch for failed breakdown setups and bounces before considering short positions.
In Summary: The trend remains bullish, but increased volatility and NFP release require a cautious approach. Focus on capital preservation, targeting potential longs at key support levels.
News: Top Stories for March 8, 2024
Stock Market Strength: The S&P 500 continues to reach new all-time highs.
AI Stocks Drive Tech Sector: AI-focused companies, particularly Nvidia, have spurred growth in the technology sector.
Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting and plans to maintain them at current levels ahead of the March 20 meeting. Rate cut expectations are rising for later in 2024.
Indian Economic Outlook:
Moody's raises India's economic growth forecast to 8% for FY24, citing strong domestic demand and government spending.
The Reserve Bank of India governor also anticipates GDP growth near 8%.
Global Outlook: J.P. Morgan economists expect the global economy to avoid recession despite monetary tightening, but they predict an end to global expansion in mid-2025.
Inflation and Currencies: US inflation, measured by the CPI, rose more than expected in January. Sterling climbed to its highest since August, bolstered by potential rate cut expectations for the ECB and Fed.
Other Highlights
UK-India free trade agreement faces potential delays.
Crude oil prices declined slightly, and gold prices increased.
Bitcoin's rally is attributed to its limited supply.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Combined US indexes suggest a cotinued over-extensionThe Combined US indexes are clearly in bearish divergence, as previously described. However, it appears that there is a thin underlying technical and funding support to push this index(es) into the Fibonacci target over the next couple of weeks till the end of April.
A trajectory of the expected retrace to run scenario is drawn in light yellow, to the upside target where the green ellipse is.
Watch for breakdowns below supports and no recovery. Otherwise, this looks unbelievable, but it is a sucker's rally really.
Tread and trade with caution...
S&P makes new high, up to the skyBulls have finished last week with a spectacular rally. It was quite clear that they were taking some rest before a run but even I was surprised by their Friday achievements (see )
The outlook for this week is easily defined: BULLS, BULLS, BULLS. The daily chart looks great (daily uptrend, new high), there is absolutely no warning signals on lower timeframe (last day is a classical bullish trend day), no visible resistance above. Until it changes there is no place for short trades (unless you're a scalper) and pullbacks are for buying.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
Bulls and Bears zone for 03-07-2024Market has been trading in a range for last several days with increased volatility. Could today be any different, probably not.
Any test of yesterday's High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5132 --- 5134
Reports to watch:
US: Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET
US:EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3/7 Thursday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Thursday
Market Sentiment: Neutral
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5100, 5093 (major), 5087, 5082-79 (major), 5078, 5070-73, 5058-60, 5052, 5045 (major), 5033-36 (major), 5028, 5018-20 (major), 5013, 5008 (major), 4998 (major), 4988, 4978, 4969, 4965-63 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5108 (major), 5112, 5121 (major), 5126, 5130-33 (major), 5140 (major), 5146, 5154, 5163, 5171 (major), 5182 (major), 5195, 5203-5206 (major), 5216, 5223, 5228 (major), 5235, 5240 (major), 5247, 5258-61 (major).
Trading Strategy:
Range-Bound Market: Trade with caution within the newly established range between 5093 and 5130-33. Exercise discipline and focus on key levels for potential trades.
Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5108 (if back-tested), 5093, or on a failed breakdown of today's lows (5099-5100). If 5093 fails, aim for longs only at major supports; consider a failed breakdown of yesterday's low (5063) as a possible trade setup.
Short Opportunities: Selling opportunities may emerge at the 5130 level if resistance holds. As always, avoid shorting green candles.
Bull Case:
Short-Term Focus: Bulls maintain control on higher timeframes. Failure of 5033-36 would signal the first step towards a trend shift. Focus on the immediate term; holding above 5093 allows for a base-building pattern between 5093 and 5130, with upside targets of 5140, 5146, and ultimately 5180.
Bear Case:
Breakdown Signals: Loss of 5093 raises caution, particularly if the 5079-83 support fails, triggering a deeper selloff. Exercise caution with breakdown trades and wait for clear signals.
In Summary: The trend remains bullish, but increased volatility warrants a cautious approach. Pay close attention to the 5093 and 5130-33 levels. A breach of 5093 opens up opportunities for deeper retracements.
News: Top Stories for March 7, 2024
Stock Market Rally Continues: The S&P 500 saw a strong February with a 5.34% gain and maintains a YTD total return of 7.11%. Investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's potential for a soft landing remains high. Recent earnings reports continue to surpass expectations.
Federal Reserve Policy Shifts: Strong economic data may lead the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts previously expected to begin in March. Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggests the Fed's policy rate is likely at its peak, potential rate cuts may only materialize later this year.
Economic Outlook:
While FOMC officials are not anticipating a recession, they project a significant slowdown in the U.S GDP growth in 2024.
The technology sector, with a particular emphasis on AI companies like Nvidia, continues to demonstrate robust earnings growth.
Global Market Developments:
China reduces a key interest rate to stimulate its property sector.
Asian markets show mixed performance, with Japan's Nikkei reaching notable highs.
Corporate and Banking Highlights:
New York Community Bank receives a $1 billion investment from entities including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's company.
Lufthansa reinstates dividends on the back of increased profits.
WuXi Companies' shares experience a decline amidst renewed U.S. sanction concerns.
Cryptocurrency Trends: Bitcoin's price surge is linked to its limited supply.
Regulatory Updates: The SEC approves a revised climate disclosure rule, easing requirements for companies to report certain emissions.
Investing Insights: Analysts from JPMorgan, Fidelity, and Morningstar offer perspectives on economic growth, inflation, corporate profits, and stock market valuations, emphasizing that despite potential economic slowdown, opportunities exist for investors across various asset classes.
Other Major Developments:
RBI takes action against Paytm Payments Bank in India.
AstraZeneca announces a £200 million expansion investment in Cambridge, UK.
S&P 500 INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 07/03/2024BUY ABOVE - 5110
SL - 5100
TARGETS - 5118,5128,5140
SELL BELOW - 5092
SL - 5100
TARGETS - 5083,5077,5066
NO TRADE ZONE - 5092 to 5110
Previous Day High - 5128
Previous Day Low - 5092
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement
HAPPY TRADING 👍
S&P500: Sell opportunity for at least 1 month.S&P500 is bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 61.459, MACD = 50.390, ADX = 31.702) but the RSI has turned sideways for a long time which is the same pattern that led to the July 27th 2023 High. The index has had three major corrections inside the long term Channel Up, ranging from -8.16% to -10.64%. We expect the index to decline by at least -8.00% in the next 1 month and approach the 1D MA200 (TP = 4,750), which is intact since November 2nd 2023.
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Why I technically feel, Tesla is ready to build 30X againKeep It Simple and Trade With the Trend.
As a trader, you have probably heard the old adage that it is best to "trade with the trend." The trend, say all the pundits, is your friend. This is sage advice as long as you know and can accept that the trend can end. And then the trend is not your friend. There are multiple ways to spot trends, direction, and momentum.
So how can we determine the direction of the trend?
Let's take a look on the KISS rule, which says, "Keep it (as much as possible) simple, stupid!" Here is a method of determining the trend, and a simple method of anticipating the end of the trend.
Before we've started, it should be mentioned the importance of time frames in determining the trend. Usually, when we are analyzing long-term investments, the long-term time frame (one-week or larger) dominates the shorter time frames. However, for intraday purposes, the shorter time frame could be of greater value. Trades can be divided into three classes of trading styles or segments: the intra-day, the swing, and the position trade.
Large commercial traders, such as those companies setting up production in a foreign country, might be interested in the fate of the currency over a long period of such as months or years. But for speculators, a weekly chart can be accepted as the "long-term".
Averages Moving in Pairs
With a weekly chart as the initial reference, we can then go about determining the long-term trend for a speculative trader. To do this, we will resort to two very useful tools that will help us determine the stage of the trend. These two tools are the simple moving average and the exponential moving average.
Going further and keeping in mind all the mentioned above rules, lets build the trend.
Darlings, well graphed Tesla stocks trend is still the same as in 2019, where it started 30x gain.
Anybody tried to get all the path at those times? There's a chance you'll miss it again!
Potential Short on SPXPX is currently in an ascending wedge with bearish RSI divergence wait for a break of trendline and retest of support before taking a position with stoploss at last swing high and target at next area of support, moving SL to BE when safe to do so and then follow with a trailing stop looking for a bigger move down. Good luck traders.
3/6 Wednesday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Trading Plan for Wednesday
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5081, 5073, 5063-66 (major), 5057, 5052, 5044, 5035-40 (major), 5028, 5022, 5018 (major), 5013, 5009, 5003, 4996-98 (major), 4987, 4983 (major), 4976, 4970 (major), 4962-66 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5088 (major), 5096 (major), 5105, 5117-19 (major), 5126-28 (major), 5135, 5140, 5146, 5153-5155 (major), 5167, 5177 (major), 5183, 5197 (major), 5207, 5212, 5219, 5228-30 (major), 5241, 5247, 5252-54 (major), 5268, 5278 (major).
Trading Strategy:
Navigating Increased Volatility: Expect complex trading conditions as uncertainty around trend continuation and higher volatility persists. Employ disciplined level-to-level trading strategies.
Focus on Support at 5088-81: This zone is critical; trade tests of 5081 or reclaims of 5088 for potential longs.
Support at 5063-65: This major support zone may still have strength left for long attempts. Ideally, look for a test of this afternoon's low (around 5062), followed by a reclaim, for a long entry setup.
Backtesting Breakout Level: Monitor the 5035-40 support level; it represents a crucial backtest of February 22nd's triangle breakout. This is a high-confidence area for longs.
Potential Shorting Opportunity: The 5117-19 and 5126-28 zone offers a potential short setup for quick points if today's breakdown can be retested. Exercise caution; a strong reaction and reclaim could signal a powerful short squeeze.
Bull Case:
Immediate Focus: Defense of 5088-81 as a base with reclaims of 5096 setting the stage for a push towards 5105, followed by 5117-19.
Opportunities on Strength: Consider adding long positions during overnight flagging and within the base.
Bear Case:
Breakdown Below 5081: A breakdown below this support targets potential short entries around 5079-80. Use breakdown trades cautiously, recognizing their low win rate but high reward potential.
Additional Short Opportunities: Look for shorts at 5063-65 (if it fails) and potentially at 5060.
In Summary: The trend could hinge on Wednesday's price action. Be prepared for complex trading conditions. Defending 5088-81 would favor bulls targeting a retest of today's high. Loss of 5081 indicates a potential move down towards 5065, with further downside risk if this level fails.
News: Top Stories for March 6, 2024
Mortgage Rates Ease: Borrowers are experiencing some relief with declining mortgage rates in a generally expensive housing market.
BOJ Outlook: Bank of Japan officials are expressing increased confidence in wage growth, potentially signaling an end to Japan's negative interest rate policy soon.
Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500 continues to show strength, gaining 5.34% in February with a YTD total return of 7.11%. Investor optimism persists around the Federal Reserve's potential for a soft landing in the U.S. economy.
Tech Sector Strength: AI stocks, particularly Nvidia, are driving impressive earnings growth in the technology sector.
Chinese Economic Picture: China shows robust economic activity in early 2024, prioritizing technology advancement and industrial upgrades. However, declines are seen in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and the Shanghai Composite index against global market highs.
Fed Policy & Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to hold interest rates steady at their next meeting on March 20.
The market is factoring in a chance of a rate cut by June, while mixed economic data guides the Fed's approach to a soft landing.
2024 Elections & Market Uncertainty: The upcoming U.S. presidential election could inject volatility into the stock market, raising concerns about tech sector valuations.
Corporate Highlights:
CrowdStrike has reported strong earnings performance.
Skincare companies consider going public with IPOs in 2024.
International News:
China's exports and bank loans increase, pointing to potential economic expansion.
Gaza cease-fire talks reach a critical juncture with geopolitical implications.
U.S. Political Updates:
Reports suggest Nikki Haley is ending her presidential campaign.
The Biden administration's decision to cut credit card late fees affects bank revenues.
Cryptocurrency Trend: Bitcoin has reached a fresh record high, sparking heightened investor interest.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
VIX is making higher highs and higher lowsWhile the market continues to rise and investors grow confident the rally won't stop, the VIX keeps subtly making higher highs and higher lows.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P 500 INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 06/03/2024BUY ABOVE - 5092
SL - 5083
TARGETS - 5100,5110,5120
SELL BELOW - 5077
SL - 5083
TARGETS - 5066,5057,5047
NO TRADE ZONE - 5130 to 5140
Previous Day High - 5110
Previous Day Low - 5057
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement
HAPPY TRADING 👍
SPY S&P 500 ETF Potential Retracement ! If you haven`t sold AAPL after after Buffett trimmed his position in it:
Then you need to know that at 12.90%, Apple is the Nasdaq Composite's largest stock by weighting, followed closely by Microsoft at 12.14%.
Even though Apple has diversified its product line with Watch, AirPods, and services, the iPhone is still responsible for 52% of its revenue.
Today, we found out that APPLE'S CHINA IPHONE SALES TUMBLE 24%, LOSING OUT TO HUAWEI.
A downturn in AAPL could have a cascading effect on the overall market!
SPY Correction Coming?Hello everyone!
First two new charts for 2024. Another year another upside logic market. We're breaking ATH with continually decaying economic data, new banking troubles, new wars, and an election year and markets ignore it all. It's a Fed controlled market so mysterious!?
Anyhow, in this chart I did a vague not so accurate EW that began Jan 2022 that bottomed in Oct 2022 which basically bounced off the Feb 2020 highs which pushed us into this new bull market. We finally broke the ATH for the S&P today with 5015ish, which makes me believe we should soon see a corrective wave hit.
The first support will be early Jan support of 475. If this stays within this channel, we should see the correction over (C) at the same level as (2) of the bear market of 2022 which is March/April of 455ish giving us about a 10% correction.
Now, this is all IF markets go as planned and there are no external factors influencing selling such as a larger scale geopolitical war, banking failures and so on. This is based off a market that is going at the current pace.
That being said, I do see a major geopolitical event that will shake markets to their core but until then, we base our market moves on the Feds dovish nonsense.
Technicals:
- RSI, MACD are about peaked.
- VIX is at critical levels