Gold near all time highs turns spx/gold ratio lowerspx/gold is a way to measure the value of stocks compared to real commodity metal instead of printable dollars.
Gold is a "safe haven" for many reasons including that once its in your hand you own it and no one is your counterparty. Dollars depend on the federal reserve and the supply of dollars circulating. When you hold gold, you hold a real commodity that has tradable value that should rise over time as more dollars are printed to fund the government debt mountain.
Gold has two ways to win, 1. inflation, 2. demand for safety.
1.If the Fed choose to create some inflation to allow the fed to burn down the US national debt, then gold should in theory become more popular as a dollar hedge. Geopolitical stress might also help this inflation or high spending case and support the case for dollar hedges like gold.
2.If instead of inflation, a sell off or deflationary correction, we might see demand for cash and safety assets as the herd of investors seek safety all at the same time. Marketcaps are too large for all the cash and gold that is available, so again this case should also help gold and safe haven assets.
Keep an eye on the spx to gold ratio along with the other indices in gold terms to see which way history plays out.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
NDAQ - Make or Break SpotNDAQ Consolidating and is looking like it's in quite the make-or-break spot. Definitely will be keeping an eye on the Nasdaq and broader markets, the NDAQ has a double bottom off of the lower trendline, while simultaneously all other signs point bearish. Death cross on both the MACD as well as the 50-day SMA crossing below the 200-day SMA, accompanied by a bearish cipher as further confirmation of a trend. Just some support and resistance levels to keep an eye on in the interim, along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones, staying hedged, and staying cash.
SPX FORECASTMARKET PHASE
BLACKBULL:SPX500 is in a weekly uptrend, fueled by a daily timeframe expansion taking place.
AREA OF VALUE
We can expect a volatility contraction where lows will form, and therefore allow sell side liquidity to be created (sell stops, shorts, stop losses) below this corrective structure.
TRADE
No trade. Waiting for a corrective structure and creation of an area of value.
$AAPL Ready for Bottom Fishing?NASDAQ:AAPL I like how this is setting up. It looks like it has held the $180 “area” for a month now. It has had some good rallies from that area. I am looking for it to break above that steep blue downtrend line. It has captured the 5 DMA (white) and looks like it could take the 10 EMA too. All TBD.
My plan is to go long on a break of the downtrend line with a stop just below that day’s low. If the market is going to move higher $APPL needs to participate, IMO. Of course, we must wait and see.
The chart I am using is LevelUp available here on TV. Checking it out, I think you will like it as well as I do.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
3/4 Monday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish
Trading Plan for Monday
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5134, 5124 (major), 5113 (major), 5106, 5096 (major), 5093, 5085-87, 5079, 5074 (major), 5063, 5052 (major), 5046, 5039-41 (major), 5034, 5028 (major), 5018, 5013, 4998-5000 (major), 4992, 4987-85 (major), 4975, 4970, 4960-65 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5144, 5150 (major), 5158, 5163 (major), 5170, 5175, 5183-86 (major), 5190, 5200, 5208-10 (Major), 5216, 5225-30 (major), 5240 (major), 5246 (major), 5259
Trading Strategy:
Cautious Approach After Parabolic Rally: Exercise caution after the recent parabolic move; price needs to establish new levels for clear trading opportunities. Be prepared for choppy, unpredictable action or a pullback.
Reduced Position Size: Limit risk exposure on Monday by trading only a partial position (approximately 20% of previous profits).
Focus on Supports and Demand: Target 5124 and 5113 as primary support zones for potential longs. If 5096 fails, consider the bull flag pattern invalidated and anticipate a deeper pullback. Remain patient until at least the 5052 level before considering new long entries.
Bull Case:
Trend Continuation: The bull market remains in control. Focus on the 5123-5113 and 5096 support zones. Holding above these levels could lead to a consolidation phase (5113-5150) before pushing higher towards 5163, 5183-86, and ultimately 5225.
Adding on Strength (Cautiously): Look for opportunities to add to positions in potential pullbacks or flags that develop off the 5134 area.
Bear Case:
Breakdown Below 5113-5123: A decisive break below these support levels signals a shift in momentum. Consider shorts on failed bounces at 5123/5113, targeting a move down the levels. Use disciplined profit-taking.
Top News for March 4, 2024
Stock Market Rally Continues: The S&P 500 continues to make new all-time highs in 2024, with February's performance marking an impressive 5.34% gain. Year-to-date, the index boasts a strong 7.11% total return.
Optimism Around a Soft Landing: Investor confidence in the Federal Reserve achieving a soft landing for the U.S. economy is growing.
Positive Earnings Results: Fourth-quarter earnings surpassed expectations, demonstrating corporate resilience to rising costs and high-interest rates.
Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Updates: The bond market anticipates only a 3.0% chance of a Fed rate cut in March. However, a 66.1% chance exists for a cut of at least 25 basis points by June. The January CPI showed mixed results at 3.1% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing efforts to achieve a soft landing.
Tech Leaders Shine: Nvidia (NVDA) reported astonishing Q4 revenue growth of 265%, sending its stock prices soaring over 60% YTD.
Apple Faces EU Fine: The European Union imposed a fine of nearly $2 billion on Apple over preferential treatment of its music streaming service, Apple Music, compared to competitors like Spotify.
JetBlue and Spirit Merger Blocked: A court ruling has halted the planned merger between JetBlue and Spirit Airlines.
Winnebago Results Upcoming: Winnebago Industries will release its fiscal 2024 second-quarter financial results on March 21, 2024.
Market Outlook
Tech Sector Leads the Charge: Strong earnings and growth in technology stocks, especially within the AI sector, are fueling the market rally.
Historical Trends Offer Insights: Data suggests that a positive S&P 500 performance in January and February usually signals continued growth over the year, with an average return of 14.8%.
Other News Highlights:
Trump's Ballot Eligibility Restored: The Supreme Court has reinstated former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run in future elections.
Bitcoin Rally Continues: Bitcoin's bullish momentum continues, with prices exceeding $65,000.
Nikkei 225 Breaks New Ground: Japan's Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.5%, surpassing the 40,000 mark for the first time.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
$PFE Ready for Bottom Fishing?NYSE:PFE is certainly a dog but, it has put in a higher low and the moving averages are starting to turn up. I like to go bottom fishing occasionally. PFE is my new candidate.
I have an alert set just above the current price where it may move above short-term resistance, around the thin blue line.
If it triggers and I take this trade, I can put a stop close by at either the day low or the previous day’s low. All TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
S&P 500 INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 04/03/2024BUY ABOVE - 5140
SL - 5132
TARGETS - 5150,5160,5170
SELL BELOW - 5132
SL - 5140
TARGETS - 5120,5110,5100
NO TRADE ZONE - 5132 to 5140
Previous Day High - 5140
Previous Day Low - 5094
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement
HAPPY TRADING 👍
3/3 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 5,114Welcome to the Weekly Trading Plan, where we dive deep into market and volume profile analysis to navigate the dynamic landscape of trading. Each week, we dissect key market trends, identify significant support and resistance levels, and leverage volume profile insights to uncover optimal entry and exit points.
Our approach blends technical precision with a keen understanding of market psychology, empowering traders to make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. Through comprehensive analysis and strategic planning, we aim to capitalize on emerging opportunities while mitigating potential risks.
Join us as we embark on a journey of discovery, mastering the art of trading through disciplined analysis and thoughtful execution. Welcome to a community where knowledge is power, and success is within reach. Let's chart a course to profitability together in the exciting world of trading.
3/3 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 5,114
Targets
5,145
5,194
5,259
Targets
5,089
5,032
4,997
Now trading at 5,141
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 5,141
Weekly pivot at 5,114
Each weekly target.
Side notes
ES is currently OTFU in (D-W-M). Daily OTFU would come to an end if 5101.25 is breach during Monday's RTH session.
BRIEFING Week #9 : Wyckoff ranging ahead for Bitcoin ?Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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The whole market looks bullishBitcoin has a insane large descending triangle or wedge which already broke out from the upside and will have a bullish continuation until end of the year most likely.
S&P, Dow, Nasdaq have all a large descendinge broadening wedge which is ultimately bullish. Momentum is being built up and we can foresee a sudden but steady rise as well.
Gold has been hammering on the 2000 usd/ounce resistance for the 3th time, but might have a break out as well.. though it could have an averse effect if the stockmarket and cryptomarket turns bullish.
Nothing more to say.
Place your bets.
Easing Inflation Rate Spurs Optimism for a Bullish Trend?Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on the S&P 500!
The CBOE:SPX has convincingly breached the double bottom, presenting a compelling signal for a potential bullish reversal. The price trajectory exhibits a sustained upward movement, concurrently shaping a continuation pattern recognized as the Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern. As this pattern unfolds, a subsequent breakout from the descending broadening wedge provides robust confirmation of a conceivable upward trajectory toward the specified target area. Beyond the prism of price dynamics, the oscillator has undergone a significant golden cross, adding another layer of confidence to the outlook and signaling the potential for a bullish market trend.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Recent Announcement of the Inflation Data
- In October 2023, the annual inflation rate in the United States decelerated to 3.2%, marking a decrease from 3.7% observed in both September and August. This figure also fell below market forecasts of 3.3%.
- The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, exhibited a marginal decline to an over two-year low of 4% in October 2023, down from 4.1% in the preceding month. Contrary to market expectations, which anticipated stability at 4.1%.
- The unexpected deceleration in inflation has fostered the anticipation that the Federal Reserve's assertive tightening cycle may have concluded. This development is instilling optimism for a bullish scenario in the market.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on
CBOE:SPX ."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
S&P500 Is it timed for a correction until the Fed Decision?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and since last Friday, the price has been griding on its top (Higher Highs trend-line). The longer it fails to convincingly break and close a full week above it, the more likely it is to deliver a technical pull-back.
On that technical setting, the 1D RSI has been on a lengthy Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs) since December 19 2023, which is similar to the one that led to the July 27 2023 Channel Up Higher High and the subsequent -10.96% correction. In fact the 1D RSI has printed a peak pattern (red circle) similar to all previous 3 Higher Highs that gave corrections ranging from -9.17% to -10.96%. July 27 2023 initially delivered a -5.84% pull-back before extending to -10.96%.
From a fundamental perspective though, if the market indeed gets rejected here and starts pulling back, it would seem ideally timed for a bottom near the next Fed Rate Decision meeting on March 20 2024, where the policymakers may give clearer hints for a June cut.
The correction's targets can only be determined technically though, so a potential -5.84% pull-back takes us marginally below Support 1 at 4845, right on the 0.382 Fibonacci Channel retracement level. If the market overreacts to the Fed, then a potential extension gives a rough 2nd Target at 4755, within Fib 0.5 and 0.618, which will approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the current phase of the Bull Cycle we are at though, it is very doubtful to see in the near future stronger corrections.
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3/1 Friday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Plan for Friday
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5093, 5087, 5078-80 (major), 5066, 5058 (major), 5052, 5041-41 (major), 5031, 5028, 5018-22 (major), 5013, 5009, 5004, 4998 (major), 4988 (major), 4976, 4965, 4956-69 (major), 4947.
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5100-02 (major), 5108, 5113, 5120-24 (major), 5131, 5140 (major), 5150, 5155-57 (major), 5163, 5170, 5179-81 (major), 5188, 5196, 5200 (major), 5210 (major), 5214, 5220-25 (major), 5232, 5240 (major).
Trading Strategy:
Capital Preservation Friday: Prioritize capital preservation over aggressive trading today.
Limited High-Quality Setups: The market's recent price action limits the availability of clear, high-probability setups. Exercise caution and selectivity.
Disciplined Trading Within the Range: The 5108-5066 range defines the current market; employ disciplined, level-to-level trading strategies within this range.
Creative Approaches: The established range will require creativity in identifying trade opportunities.
Bull Case:
Trend Continuation: The bull market remains in control. Short-term focus is on the 5078-80 support level. Holding above this level primes ES for a breakout of the ongoing bull flag, targeting 5120-24 and potentially moving toward new all-time highs (5140, 5155-57).
Adding on Strength (Cautiously): Look for opportunities to add to positions, but proceed carefully due to limited visibility on setups. Overnight flagging above 5087, while remaining below 5113, may offer a constructive setup for direct upward movement.
Bear Case:
Support Failure: Breakdowns below 5078-80 trigger the bear case. Expect retests of the support level and consider shorting on failed bounces around 5076.
Breakdown Trades: Breakdown trades are risky (low win-rate, high reward potential). Proceed with caution or consider avoiding these setups if you find them unsuitable.
In Summary: Prioritize capital protection today. Maintain awareness of the trend but focus on trading within the established range using disciplined and creative approaches. If 5078-80 support fails, a potential shift in dynamics may require adjustments to your trading plan.
Top News for March 1, 2024
KeyCorp Earnings Calls Scheduled: KeyCorp has announced its schedule for quarterly earnings conference calls throughout 2024. Investors can access live audio webcasts via the company's investor relations website.
Biodesix Reports FY2023 Results: Biodesix, a leading diagnostic solutions provider, has released its financials for Q4 and FY2023, highlighting substantial growth in Lung Diagnostic test volume and a solid gross profit margin. The company projects significant total revenue growth for 2024.
Fox River Corporate Update: Fox River Resources Corporation has provided progress updates on its ongoing projects for 2024, including Battery Supply Chain Initiatives and Pilot Plant Phosphoric Acid Tests.
Financial Rule Changes Effective March 2024: Key financial changes are set to take place in March 2024, including GST rule updates, FASTag deactivation, and bank holidays. Additionally, the fiscal year 2023-24 will close on March 31.
Vanguard CEO Transition: Vanguard's CEO, Tim Buckley, who oversaw massive asset growth during his tenure, is stepping down.
Lordstown Motors Settles with SEC: Electric-truck maker Lordstown Motors has reached a settlement with the SEC regarding disclosure issues surrounding its SPAC deal.
Nasdaq Hits Record High: The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index closed at an all-time high for the first time in over two years.
Dell's Outlook Boosted by AI Adoption: Dell's shares rose in response to bullish annual forecasts driven by increased demand for AI-optimized servers. This indicates AI adoption is a significant growth factor for enterprise technology suppliers.
Brazil's Q4 GDP Flat: Brazil's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 unexpectedly showed zero growth, missing market expectations slightly.
New York Community Bancorp Shares Fall: Shares in NYCB have declined due to the discovery of 'material weaknesses' in its loan review processes.
Disclaimer: Remember, this analysis serves an educational purpose; it should not be taken as financial advice. Always consult a financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
Another Leg Up Needed After PullbackAssuming the current market correction is a scaled down version of the 2000-2009 correction, we likely have one more leg up to complete the pattern. The RSI hit a bottom at the end of the A wave down in 2002 and 2022. Since this time the RSI had been producing higher lows with the exception of one cross in May 2006 and August 2023. This appears to fall in line with the internal B wave inside of the corrective up wave. If 2000-2009 is a template, the current market still needs to see the RSI moving average (white line) at the bottom cross below yellow trendline. This initial cross will likely occur near the final market top, assuming the market has not topped yet. This cross below should also coincide with a slight market pullback. All of this is expected in the yellow circle at the bottom of the chart.
While companies are thrashing low-balled earnings estimates, and profiting more thanks to higher prices, this will not continue. The consumer debt bubble is set to burst. High debt will significantly stop consumer spending on non-necessities. Others will go bankrupt. The debt holders will get crushed which in turn will hurt banks and companies. A massive correction is coming thanks to extra low interest rates for way too long. The correction will be significant and fast. The recovery on the other side will rebalance the market and lead to legitimate valuations down the road again. However, many companies, people, and countries will need to collapse first.
Patience and prudence is the keep to getting through the next 1-2 years.
Market bulls take restAfter a spectacular rally last week market bulls are taking a pause. Last two days look quite bearish on the daily chart but if we look at lower timeframes we won't see any signs of strong selling. Price is drifting down very slowly as a result of profit taking and low initiative from buyers.
The high level context is still very bullish: we're in an uptrend, market made new high, retracement <30%, there is an unfilled gap from last week.
There will be some volatility as new economic data released, but at this moment my bias is 100% bullish
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
S&P 500 INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 01/03/2024BUY ABOVE - 5100
SL - 5094
TARGETS - 5110,5120,5135
SELL BELOW - 5088
SL - 5094
TARGETS - 5081,5076,5070
NO TRADE ZONE - 5088 to 5100
Previous Day High - 5100
Previous Day Low - 5062
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement
HAPPY TRADING 👍
2/29 Wednesday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral
Indian and Global Market Updates
Mixed Indian Indices in Early Trading: The BSE Sensex and Nifty oscillated between gains and losses in a volatile morning session, mirroring muted global market cues and today's monthly derivatives expiry.
Reliance Industries, Maruti, and Others Lead Gains: Reliance Industries, Maruti, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, and State Bank of India were among the top gainers on the Sensex.
Lagging Behind: Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the stocks underperforming.
Economic Outlook and Indicators
Elevated Recession Risk: Economist David Rosenberg warns of an 85% chance of a US recession in 2024, a high probability not seen since the 2008 crisis. His forecast is informed by a combination of financial conditions, debt-service ratios, foreign term spreads, and yield curve dynamics.
Bitcoin Soars: Bitcoin has reached record highs in Australian dollars and is closing in on an all-time US dollar high, driven by bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market.
UK Economic Indicators Updated: Real-time indicators such as flight activity and London traffic data, as well as online job advert indices and automotive fuel spending insights, provide an update on the UK economy.
US Growth Forecast Revised Upward: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model increased its first-quarter 2024 real GDP growth estimate to 3.2%, up from 2.9% previously.
Data Revisions Announced: The US Census Bureau has informed that revisions will be made to the Wholesale and Retail adjusted and not adjusted monthly estimates released in March and April 2024, respectively.
News Highlights
Real Estate, Consumer Cyclicals, and Tech Advance: The real estate sector outperformed, followed by consumer cyclicals and technology, while utilities were the only sector showing losses.
Electronic Arts Announces Layoffs: Electronic Arts (EA) is cutting around 5% of its workforce and ending development on select video games.
Oprah Winfrey Exits WW International: Oprah Winfrey will step down from the board of WW International (former Weight Watchers) and plans to sell her stake in the company.
OpenAI Under SEC Investigation: The SEC is investigating possible misrepresentation to OpenAI investors, examining CEO Sam Altman's internal communications.
Oil Prices Dip Slightly: The global oil benchmark, Brent crude, saw a slight decline of 0.17% to $83.54 per barrel.
Trading Plan for Thursday
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5074 (major), 5066, 5058, 5052 (major), 5040-42 (major), 5028-30 (major), 5018, 5013 (major), 5009, 4999 (major), 4988, 4981-83 (major), 4971, 4964, 4955-59 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5079 (major), 5087 (major), 5093, 5098, 5102, 5106-08 (major), 5113, 5118 (major), 5128, 5134-36 (major), 5142, 5150-52 (major), 5156, 5163, 5168-70, 5176 (major), 5182, 5190, 5195-5200 (major), 5209 (major), 5217, 5225 (major), 5230, 5235 (major).
Trading Strategy:
Range-Bound Market: The current market exhibits choppy, range-bound behavior. Exercise caution and focus on well-defined support and resistance levels to determine potential long or short entry points.
Inverse H&S Pattern in Play: An inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed since Monday's afternoon low, with 5074 as the neckline. Monitor this structure for potential directional clues, but acknowledge patterns offer only slight probability edges.
Disciplined Trading: Employ a disciplined trading strategy, including planned profit-taking and stop-loss orders, especially when testing significant support and resistance areas to manage potential market volatility.
Disclaimer: Remember, this analysis serves an educational purpose; it should not be taken as financial advice. Always consult a financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
S&P 500 SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE FOR INTRADAY 29/02/2024BUY ABOVE - 5076
SL - 5070
TARGETS - 5081,5088,5100
SELL BELOW - 5057
SL - 5062
TARGETS - 5047,5039,5032
NO TRADE ZONE - 5057 to 5076
Previous Day High - 5076
Previous Day Low - 5057
Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day.
Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move.
Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only.
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement
HAPPY TRADING 👍
EQT projected earnings growth of 95.06%, from $2.43 to $4.74EQT is one of the largest natural gas producers in the US, with a strong market position and recent strategic acquisitions that could contribute to its growth.
There is a projected earnings growth of 95.06%, from $2.43 to $4.74 per share, which could drive the stock price up
Silicon Valley's Lab RatCrypto is an experiment. A new way for illegal payments to be more accessible to the masses.
Decentralization is a fancy way of saying that Bitcoin is digital black money. Black is the color banks are allergic to.
Is Bitcoin strong enough to battle against Banks?
To follow its paradigm, 23 thousand more coins have been opportunistically created. Each one of them attempts to get a piece of the black market pie.
There is no law that forces Bitcoin to be an ever-growing commodity. There is no law that forces it to go to waste. The only law behind it is supply and demand. And if you have been paying attention, we haven't had much supply up here...
If you want this coin to grow further, you must see where the majority of buyers are at. In this case, the buyers are quite lower. Now we are in a zone where the excitement of a Bitcoin ETF is clouding your judgement. If you clear your mind, you will realize that we are in the same story over and over again. An eternal attempt to trap buyers and sellers in the wrong place.
The main chart calculates an extremely simple quantity: How much more expensive is the next contract than the current one? This is one of the ways to calculate bullishness/bearishness in market. Now it is in an all-time high. In similar levels to March of 2021. And boy this is bad news.
Notice a similarity???
Let me explain further...
No words need be spoken. A classic redistribution pattern appears in both cases. And the pattern is eerily similar.
In the end, it is déjà vu.
Further analysis:
Human psychology is independent of instrument or timeframe.
Déjà vu, over and over and over again...
Bitcoin may be Silicon Valley's Lab Rat. Don't be Bitcoin's Lab Rat.
A serious trader must be neither excited nor fearful.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori