Apple Earnings Boost Stock to 182 ? Reasons Why
Apple’s Fiscal 2024 First Quarter Results:
Apple reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, which ended on December 30, 2023. Here are the key highlights:
Revenue: The company posted quarterly revenue of $119.6 billion, representing a 2 percent year-over-year increase.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Quarterly earnings per diluted share reached $2.18, marking a 16 percent year-over-year growth.
Services Revenue: Apple achieved an all-time record in services revenue during this quarter.
Active Devices: The installed base of active Apple devices surpassed 2.2 billion, reaching an all-time high across all products and geographic segments.
Cash Flow and Dividends: Apple generated nearly $40 billion of operating cash flow and returned almost $27 billion to shareholders. The company’s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.24 per share of common stock, payable on February 15, 2024.
Long Idea and Earnings Impact:
While the earnings report reflects strong performance, it’s essential to consider the broader market context and analysts’ expectations.
Analysts estimate an average EPS of $1.41 for Apple’s second quarter of 2024, with a range between $1.32 and $1.45.
As an investor, you might want to assess factors such as:
iPhone Sales: The growth in iPhone sales significantly contributed to Apple’s revenue. Monitor iPhone demand trends and product launches.
Services Segment: Services revenue hit a record high. Evaluate the sustainability of this growth.
Margin Expansion: The all-time record EPS resulted from margin expansion. Understand the drivers behind this improvement.
Dividends: Apple’s consistent dividend payments provide income for long-term investors.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Meta Stock Could Reach $520 by July 2024 Earnings ReportNASDAQ:META
Why Meta Stock Could Reach $520 by July 2024 Earnings Report
Meta Platforms, Inc., formerly known as Facebook, has been making significant strides in its business operations, which could potentially drive its stock price to $520 by the time of its July 2024 earnings report. Here are some key reasons:
1. Strong Performance in Q1 2024
Meta reported a robust first quarter in 2024, with revenue soaring 27% to $36.4 billion compared to the same period last year1. Net income also saw a substantial increase of 117% to $12.4 billion. This strong financial performance indicates a healthy growth trajectory for the company.
2. Significant Investment in AI
CEO Mark Zuckerberg has announced plans for significant investment in artificial intelligence2. While this initially caused a 12% slump in the META stock price, it’s a strategic long-term investment that could potentially drive future growth and profitability.
3. Positive Stock Forecasts
Analysts have made positive predictions about Meta’s stock price. For instance, WalletInvestor forecasts a price of $517.58, while TipRanks predicts a price of $547.45. These predictions suggest a potential for the stock price to reach $520.
4. Expected Growth in Q2 2024
Meta’s CFO has projected total revenue for Q2 2024 to be in the range of $36.5-39 billion. This expected growth could further boost investor confidence and drive up the stock price.
5. Long-Term Growth Potential
Meta has demonstrated a long-term growth potential, with its stock price rising 110% from $209.40 to $441.38 in the 12 months leading up to April 25, 2024. This trend suggests that the company has the potential to reach the $520 mark by July 2024.
MICROSOFT 460 BY 2025 ?TOP 3 REASONS WHY !!
Earnings Growth: One of the most important factors for any growth Astock is earnings growth1. Microsoft has a historical EPS growth rate of 21.3%, and it’s projected to grow 13.2% this year, outpacing the industry average. This consistent and robust earnings growth is a strong indicator of the company’s financial health and future prospects, which could drive its stock price higher.
Cloud Services: Microsoft Azure, the company’s cloud platform, has been a significant driver of growth. Demand for cloud infrastructure services is higher than ever, as organizations seek digital solutions in a post-COVID-19 world. With Azure’s revenue increasing by 48%, it’s expected to exceed both Office and Windows in annual revenue by next year. This growth in the cloud sector represents a massive opportunity for Microsoft and could be a major factor in boosting its stock price.
Productivity and Gaming: Microsoft’s productivity and business processes segment, which includes Office 365, has shown solid results with consistent revenue growth. The transition of Office to a subscription service has been beneficial for Microsoft’s core software business2. Additionally, the gaming sector, particularly Xbox, is another area where Microsoft is seeing significant growth2. With the successful launch of the Xbox Series X and Series S, and the rapid growth of the Xbox Game Pass subscription service, the future looks bright for Microsoft’s gaming business.
AMAZON 210 NEXT NASDAQ:AMZN
AMAZING AMAZON 210 NEXT
Recent Analyst Consensus: According to recent analyst predictions, the consensus target price for Amazon in the next 12 months is around $221.55. This would imply an increase of approximately 14.62% from the current price1. Keep in mind that this target price can vary among different analysts.
Historical Performance: Amazon has been a remarkable success story, with its stock price consistently rising over the years. It started as an online bookstore and expanded into various other sectors, including cloud computing (Amazon Web Services), entertainment (Amazon Prime Video), and smart devices (Amazon Echo).
Factors Influencing Stock Price: Several factors impact Amazon’s stock price:
Earnings Reports: Investors closely monitor Amazon’s quarterly earnings reports. Strong revenue growth and profitability tend to boost the stock.
Market Sentiment: Overall market conditions, investor sentiment, and economic trends play a role.
TESLA 300 AFTER EARNINGS ? 3 STRONG REASONS !!
Strong EV Market Position:
Tesla’s electric vehicles (EVs) remain popular, with the Model Y and Model 3 ranking among the top-selling vehicles in the U.S. in 2023. Even as legacy automakers enter the market, Tesla’s success suggests continued consumer preference for its vehicles.
Cybertruck:
Tesla’s long-awaited Cybertruck could be a game-changer. Pickup trucks have high gross profit margins, and if Tesla prices the Cybertruck right, it could boost their overall profitability1.
Regulatory Credits and Rebates: As Europe tightens regulations on internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, Tesla may receive more regulatory credits (from competitors like Fiat) going forward.
Full Self-Driving (FSD) Technology: Analysts estimate that Tesla’s FSD technology could potentially raise earnings per share by $1-$2 annually through the end of the decade.
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS FOR BIG COMPANIES !! LONG TERM !TRADING CAN CHANGE YOUR LIFE !!
META - APPLE - AMAZON - SPX - SPY - TESLA - NVIDIA - JP MORGAN - RIVIAN - LUCID
AVGO - HOOD - ROCKETLAB - AFFIRM - GOOGLE - SOFI - MICROSOFT - META -TSM - CRM - AMD
QCOM - BAC - AMEX - DISCOVER FOREX EURUSD - GBPUSD - USDJPY BTC
Key Considerations for Trading Forex, BTC, and Stocks
Trading in financial markets, whether it's Forex, Bitcoin (BTC), or stocks, involves a unique set of challenges and opportunities. Here are crucial points to keep in mind before diving into these markets:
For Forex Trading:
Leverage: Forex markets offer high leverage, which can amplify both gains and losses. Understand your risk tolerance and use leverage cautiously.
Market Hours: Forex markets are open 24/5, which means opportunities and risks are constant. Consider when you trade in relation to major market sessions (London, New York, Tokyo).
Volatility: Currency pairs can be highly volatile, especially around economic news releases or geopolitical events. Stay updated with economic calendars.
Interest Rates: Central bank policies can significantly affect currency values. Monitor interest rate decisions and monetary policy statements.
Pair Correlation: Understand how currency pairs correlate with each other to manage your portfolio risk better.
For Bitcoin (BTC) Trading:
High Volatility: Cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, is known for extreme price movements. Prepare for significant price swings.
Regulatory Environment: Keep an eye on global crypto regulations which can influence market sentiment and price.
Market Sentiment: Bitcoin's price can be heavily influenced by news, tweets from influencers, and market sentiment. Tools like sentiment analysis can be beneficial.
Security: Since BTC is digital, security of your wallet and trading platform is paramount. Use hardware wallets for long-term storage.
Liquidity: Ensure you're trading on platforms with good liquidity to avoid slippage, especially during volatile times.
For Stock Trading:
Company Fundamentals: Unlike Forex or BTC, stocks are tied to company performance. Analyze earnings, financial statements, and growth prospects.
Dividends: Some stocks offer dividends, providing an income stream which can be reinvested or taken as cash.
Market Trends: Stocks are influenced by broader market trends, sector performance, and macroeconomic indicators. Diversification across sectors can mitigate risk.
Brokerage and Fees: Stock trading can involve various fees like transaction fees, management fees, etc. Choose your broker wisely based on cost and services.
Long vs. Short Term: Decide if you're in for long-term investment or short-term trading. Each strategy requires different approaches to analysis and risk management.
General Tips for All Markets:
Education: Continuous learning about markets, new tools, and strategies is essential.
Risk Management: Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Use stop-loss orders, diversify, and only invest money you don't need for living expenses.
Psychology: Trading can be emotionally taxing. Manage stress, fear, and greed to make rational decisions.
Technology: Utilize trading platforms, analysis tools, and keep abreast of technological advancements that can impact your trading, like blockchain for crypto.
Regulation: Understand the regulatory environment of each market you're trading in to avoid legal pitfalls.
Community and Mentorship: Engage with trading communities or find a mentor. Learning from seasoned traders can provide shortcuts and insights.
Remember, every market has its nuances, and what works in one might not work in another. Tailor your strategies to each asset class while maintaining a cohesive risk management framework across all your trading activities. Good luck trading!
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the ath.
comment : Both sides made money today so I expect them to do the same tomorrow. If anything I see the chances of another bull breakout higher than a break below. We have clear support at 6115 and until this is strongly broken, look for longs near it.
current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon
key levels: 6115 - 6200 (contract change, so prices are much higher compared to Monday)
bull case: Bulls are still buying the dips and making money. They prevent any stronger selling and that is why most will expect a break above the 1h 20ema tomorrow and the bear trend line. 6150 is their target for tomorrow. Depending on what Jpow delivers, we could melt up again but it’s a gamble I am not willing to take tomorrow. Many bulls also bought this because it’s close to the daily 20ema. We have closed once below it in the past 6 weeks.
Invalidation is below 6100.
bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. They make money scalping but that’s about it. How likely is acceleration downwards? Very unlikely. Most bullish weeks of the year and markets are at peak euphoria.
Invalidation is above 6200.
short term: Neutral. FOMC tomorrow and if anything I expect bulls to trade back up to 6180 going into it. 6115 - 6140 is neutral. Bearish only below 6100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling since Globex or buying previous support 6115. Bears kept it below the 1h 20ema which had 3 great short opportunities today but bulls also had decent bounces off 6115.
S&P500 entering a new Bull Cycle according to the Dollar IndexThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 2022 market bottom, as it recovered from the Inflation Crisis of 2022. Despite the All Time Highs (ATH) that it is currently trading at, we have strong evidence based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that it is entering a new, more structured Bull Cycle.
As you can see on this cross chart analysis on the 1W time-frame, the market has been on a multi-year uptrend with clear Phases, ever since the March 2009 bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. At the same time, the DXY (blue trend-line) initiated its own Channel Up.
Every time the DXY bottomed, the S&P500 transitioned from the more aggressive, recovery phase (blue Arc pattern) of the Bear Cycle to a more structured (green) Channel Up. As long as the DXY remains below its (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line, the uptrend of the Channel Up is being extended. Once broken, the stock market starts to form a top, which is natural as a strong/ expensive dollar is far from ideal for buying risky assets like stocks.
In any case, it appears that the DXY bottomed in late September 2024 and rebounded aggressively. This is rebound is the exact behavior it has when the previous two (green) Channel Up patterns started. As a result, we believe that the S&P500 has ahead of it around 4 years of growth within this Channel Up, whose pull-backs/ corrections will be the cyclical buy opportunities.
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S&P 500 Rally: Why a 5k Target Might Be More Likely Than 7kSince November of last year, the SP:SPX has surged by 50%, and if we look at the gains from this year alone, we're seeing around a 30% increase. Additionally, the rise from August is 20% which is significant in just five months.
Considering the rapid pace of these increases, especially for such a major index, it gives me the impression that the S&P 500 may be overstretched.
Statistically, such strong rallies either follow a deep bear market or precede a significant pullback.
Since we haven't experienced a strong bear market recently, I believe a correction could be on the horizon.
Technically, the market remains in an uptrend, but the price action from August has been in steps. This type of movement often signals distribution and a potential reversal.
In conclusion, while a new all-time high by the end of the year is almost certain, I'm not overly optimistic about the long-term outlook.
A pullback to around 5,000 seems more likely to me than a rally to 7,000.
Why on Earth anyone invests in the Australian Shares? (SPX)The last 16 years. The US S&P 500 index (in red) Vs the Australian All Ordinaries index. The US broad market index up by 607%, the Australian index up by 58%. The US S&P 500 index is a broad measure of the top 500 companies in the US, and the All Ordinaries likewise from the largest 500 companies listed in Australia. The US represents about 25% of Global GDP Vs Australia at 1.6%. The US S&P500 index companies also earn about 40% of their earnings from outside America (due to their Global reach). Their companies also lead in tech, banking, defense etc. Why does anyone invest solely in the Australian share markets? The Australian index is very narrowly weighted to the big 4 banks (mostly leveraged on Australian residential real estate), and the large miners (leveraged on the commodity cycle). Both very narrow, non-diversified risky strategies, and clearly over the long term a crap investment compared to the breath of risk and performance outcomes of the US multinational giants of expansion and leading edge innovation.
S&P500: Channel Up ready to explode to 6,175S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.112, MACD = 49.220, ADX = 50.110) as it is extending August's Channel Up. The 4H RSI is forming an Arc pattern that is much like the below 4H MA50 consolidation of October 1st - 8th. After that was completed, the price rallied to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension to form a HH on the Channel Up. The 1.786 Fib was the target of the next bullish wave as well. Consequently, we are long on SPX, aiming again for that Fib (TP = 6,175).
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SHORT NVIDIA for a 15% Profit Target from yesterdays close...**NIVIDA** Failed to create a new High and Broke Support in yesterdays session on higher Volume circled below, see the stock falling at least another 15% from here dragging the S&P index with it, first target would be $110 with stop loss placed above all time high $152.90 ...
Wifi Back up! Morning Updates Back Rolling!Last week centered entirely around one key level: the 6060 magnet, which set up every trade of last week and delivered again Sunday evening. As posted in full plan here yesterday, 6060 needed to reclaim to trigger a long, and we’ve already seen +10 points off it.
As of now: 6075 is next, reaction there, followed by 6088 and 6098 if buyers can push through. Supports are 6056-61. If those fail, expect a dip to 6035-40.
Deep short for SPY? My target is at 510, here why!Christmas Eve Rally? - Not quite.
Trump Trade? - Hardly.
So, what’s driving the market higher, and where is SPY headed next?
Investor sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections seems to echo the euphoria of 2016, raising hopes for a similar post-election rally. Themes like tax cuts, protectionism, and trade wars are fueling optimism for U.S. equities.
But let’s not get carried away. The economic and geopolitical landscapes today are vastly different, and so is the narrative. The “Superman” Trump of 2016 no longer holds the same sway over markets.
The post-COVID stock market rally was buoyed by an unprecedented flood of liquidity. Based on our analysis, those excess dollars are nearly spent. Furthermore, the global economic outlook bears little resemblance to the relatively stable environment of 2016.
While the Democrats’ recent performance metrics provide Powell with ample material to champion a “resilient economy,” the bigger question remains: Is the U.S. stock market truly worth its current valuations?
We’ll delve into the overvaluation of the #SPY and #SPX indices in greater detail in the coming updates.
For now, you can pay close attention to technical analysis, identifying key peaks and potential correction levels.
SPX: in green to end a year?A week after the S&P 500 reached a new ATH, the market slowed down a bit during the previous week. The new ATH has been tested for a potential for further move toward the upside, however, there has not been enough market strength, so the index reverted just a bit to the downside. The lowest weekly level reached was 6.030 points.
The market's beloved tech companies were traded with a modest negative sentiment, except TSLA. A brand new star of the week was company Broadcom, which surged 24% for the week, after the company published that its AI-generated revenue soared by an incredible 220%. Analysts are noting high probability that the equity market will continue to head toward the upside till the year end. Such sentiment will be supported by the expected Fed rate cut of 25 bps on December 18th. However, they are also noting that the switch from large caps toward the small cap companies has been occurring for some time now, and will continue in the future period, supported by the environment of decreased interest rates.
S&P is Shaping a Bull Flag While Awaiting the FED DecisionLast week was characterized by increasing selling pressure that hindered upward price progression but failed to trigger any substantial pullback. The market has not even retested the previous consolidation zone ( 598-601 ), which highlights the weakness of the sellers.
Looking at the daily chart, the recent price action resembles a bull flag, favoring a continuation of the upward trend. For sellers to demonstrate their strength, they must not only break this pattern to the downside but also breach the 598 support level and drive the price further down to 594 .
Much will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, alongside the release of key economic data. The most favorable outcome for the bulls would be a 0.25% rate cut. Any other scenario could spark concerns—either about an impending recession (if the cut is larger) or about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment (if the cut is absent).
The market outlook remains bullish; however, the current price level is not ideal for new long positions. Buyers would be better served by waiting for a more meaningful pullback (e.g., to the 600 level), provided it is not driven by a negative shift in economic sentiment.
S&P500 Is Approaching the Daily TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5940 zone, S&P500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5940 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook.
Quote from last week:
comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it.
comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets.
current market cycle: Bull trend - very late
key levels: 6000 - 6300
bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate.
Invalidation is above 6120.
outlook last week:
short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not.
→ Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
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S&P500 INDEX Technical Analysis & Outlook Ahead of Fed DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The market is approaching a key week with potential volatility driven by the Fed Rate Decision and GDP data. Here's a breakdown of the scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: Continuation of the Uptrend:
Key Levels:
- Breakout Support: 6022
- Pivot Point: 6058
- Resistance Line: 6099 and 6143.
Conditions for Bullish Continuation:
- Price must remain above 6022 (Breakout Support Line).
- Stabilization above the 6099 resistance will confirm upward momentum toward 6143 (next resistance).
- This move would support a continuation of the uptrend toward a new ATH.
Fed Rate Impact:
- If the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, the market may interpret this as dovish, fueling bullish sentiment and risk appetite.
Bearish Scenario: Continuation of Downtrend:
Key Levels:
- Breakout Support Line: 6022
- First Support: 5971
- Next Supports: 5932 and 5863.
Conditions for Bearish Reversal:
- Price must break and close below 6022 on a 4-hour candle.
- A break below this level opens the door to the next support at 5971.
- Further bearish momentum could drive the price toward the Strong Support Zone around 5863.
Fed Rate Impact:
- If the Fed holds rates steady at 4.75% or signals hawkish intentions (e.g., no future rate cuts), bearish momentum may build due to reduced liquidity expectations.
Trend Outlook:
- Uptrend Continuation: Above 6022 and confirmed by a breakout above 6099.
- Downtrend Continuation: Below 6022, targeting 5971 and lower levels.
Key Summary:
Bullish Confirmation: Hold above 6022 and break above 6099.
Bearish Signal: Break and close below 6022, with lower targets of 5971 and 5932.
Fed & GDP Impact: Monitor Fed decision for rate cuts (bullish) or no change (bearish).
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity
SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations.
US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating.
When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections.
2. Historical Patterns
In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections:
Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions.
2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy.
2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction.
The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess.
If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops:
3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator
A. Reflects Cost of Capital
Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise.
B. Overheating Economy
High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs.
C. Peak Growth Phase
A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds.
4. Why It May Predict Market Tops
Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions.
Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows.
Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.