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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P500 This rally isn't even halfway there!Last time we plotted the S&P500 index (SPX) against the Volatility Index (VIX) was almost a year ago (November 07 2023, see chart below) and that helped as catch a more than +20% rise: This time, the two assets who are on a negative correlation don't trade on exactly opposite patterns. The S&P500 has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 1 year (since the October 30 2023 Low), while VIX is on a (wide) range with a clear Support Zone and peaks within a 22.00 - 24.00 Resistance Zone, with the exception of the early August rise that spiked above it (recession fears). Naturally, VIX's spikes and rejections (red circles) are SPX's bottoms and reversals (green circles). The blue circles that are bottoms for VIX inside its Support Zone are mid rally consolidations on the S&P500. This indicates that even when the Volatility bottoms and starts rising, the market is still in euphoria and it takes another half rally before it realizes that an aggressive volatility spike is coming. This can be particularly helpful in determining how long we still have to keep buying. Based on VIX's current position (ellipse shape), we are on the consolidation phase before the Support Zone test. Which means that we aren't even halfway through SPX's Bullish Leg. We expect that to be around mid to end of October, just before the U.S. elections to come up as a needed correction. As a result, we are expecting an end-of-year price at around 6200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
2
2024-09-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - More continuation of the expected. Bears trying to get lower with some spikes but enough bulls are happy to buy it. We will have a breakout either tomorrow or Thursday because one side will give up. As of now I favor the bulls for another leg up to kill the last shorts. (does not apply to DJI for example, where we basically make new ATH daily) sp500 e-mini futures comment: 1h chart tells the story. Bulls buy every dip but are not finding enough buyers above 5790 to push for 5800. One side will give up soon and I expect it to be the bears. This is the last push bulls have inside the smallest wedge and it’s either breakout above or below tomorrow. Don’t over analyze 50 point trading ranges. Clear support and resistance and you have to buy in the lower third and sell in the upper one until it clearly does not work anymore. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5730 - 5800 bull case: Bulls are poking at 5800. Couple more times and bears will probably give up. If we get above 5800, I don’t expect market to stop there. Might as well do a spike to 5850 or so. Look for longs around the 4h ema which is currently at 5768. Every touch has been bought for two weeks. Invalidation is below 5750. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5750. They manage to print some spikes but no follow through what so ever. I don’t think they will fight 5800 much longer. We have almost daily bad news and market refuses to sell. Get the hint. Probably a gigantic short squeeze coming before we meaningfully correct before the year end rally. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Buy low sell high inside given levels but breakout will most likely happen tomorrow. Can wait for it and hop along. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5775 and selling 5790. Sometimes it’s not rocket science but still hard to do mentally.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX Key $ Levels | 70%+ Accuracy!New price targets for Sep 24 using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy. Topics: - Today's Targets Overall we use stats and data pulled from a wide array of TradingView indicators and scripts so that I can have as much data as possible - even if it's unstructured or uncorrelated data. I then use AI and SOP's to systematically calculate a weekly and daily framework. My predictions are never 100% but ALL of them are mathematically proven to be 70%+ accurate historically or I wouldn't use them. Most indicators I use on my Data Dashboard chart has the stats in their associated boxes that I show during the recording if you'd like to verify yourself. Please leave me feedback as I am new to creating content and would like to improve. Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade. Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Short
by DIY_Trades
Major Top Forming on SPXHello Everyone, a simple analysis of the RSI and current price action appear eerily similar to the 2022 peak. During the 2022 top we had financial experts and the media claiming victory stating that this bull market will continue, however we crashed soon after. Now the SPX is currently forming a topping process, this could be done or we could go a little higher before the bear market continues. It's clear that the SPX is making new highs while NDX and IWM fail to make a new high suggesting that this is the top. If this economy is doing so good, then why does the FED need to cut interest rates? The fed is cutting interest rates because we are either in a recession or we are very close to one. There is no such thing as a soft landing. The truth is we may already be in a recession and it wouldn't be declared until we are deep into one. If anything we are no longer going into a recession, we are going into a depression. Do not get lulled into a false sense of security like many others during the 2000 and 2008 top.
SP:SPXShort
by justaturboman44
S&P500: Aiming at 6,000 before the elections.The S&P500 index is on a very healthy bullish technical 1D outlook (RSI = 64.688, MACD = 69.140, ADX = 44.589) which indicates that the rebound that started on the September 6th low should be extended. The volatility on the 4H RSI indicates that as long as the 4H MA200 supports, we will see a rally similar to June's and in fact we should symmetrically be on a same level as the June 14th consolidation. We are aiming for the -0.618 Fibonacci extension like June's rally (TP = 6,000) before the U.S. elections. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
SPX Highest Probability Price Targets & Analysis | Sep 23 - 27new price targets for next week (Sep 23 - 27) using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy. Topics: - This week's Targets Overall we use stats and data pulled from a wide array of Tradingview indicators and scripts so that I can have as much data as possible - even if it's unstructured or uncorrelated data. I then use AI and SOP's to systematically calculate a weekly and daily framework. My predictions are never 100% but ALL of them are mathematically proven to be 70%+ accurate historically or I wouldn't use them. Most indicators I use on my Data Dashboard chart has the stats in their associated boxes that I show during the recording if you'd like to verify yourself. Please leave me feedback as I am new to creating content and would like to improve. Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade. Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by DIY_Trades
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next direction. Bulls need a strong break above 5800 and bears below 5670. Quote from last week: comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5670 - 5850 bull case: We are trading around the ath. Will the market find more buyers to push this even higher? We are inside nested bullish patterns and bulls are favored but buying near the ath without a better pullback is not the best trade you can do right now. On lower tf you can find reasonable longs but not on the daily. I’d rather wait for a breakout of the smaller wedge and see where the market wants to go. I do think bulls can print 5800 and some next week. Most outrages target I have on sp500 is 6144 but I will only address this once bulls close a weekly bar above 5800. Invalidation is below 5670. bear case: Bears want the breakout below the wedge and test the daily ema around previous support 5670. If they are strong, they could hit 5600 next week but as of now the bears have nothing to support this but hope. Best they can probably get is some sideways around 5760. Invalidation is above 5810. outlook last week: short term: Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. → Last Sunday we traded 5629 and now we are at 5762. I leaned bearish but only if… If never came true since bears could not get a lower low all week. My read that above 5670 it’s a long, was good for 110. short term: Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None chart update: Only bullish pattern left and added an outrages measured move target.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P500 Powell gave what the market wanted. Rally up to mid-2025?Chair Powell went out and did it yesterday as the Fed didn't just cut the Interest Rates yesterday for the first time since March 2020, but did so by -0.50%, giving the market what it so desperately wanted. The question now on everyone's mind is this: is this what the market needed to extend the 2023 - 2024 rally? Fundamentally of course the cuts is a strong reason and as for the technical part we will let an old analysis of ours (last updated May 16, see chart below): As you can see, we published that at a time when there were again voices over an extended correction due to April's strong red candle. What happened instead? The S&P500 (SPX) posted 4 straight green months (not including September). Once again we present to you this chart, to help everyone maintain a healthy long-term perspective. Wide, long-term time-frames like 1W or 1M (such as the current one) succeed at filtering out the short-term noise caused by volatility, news etc. As you can see on this chart, which we named "The Ultimate stock market cheat sheet", the index goes through very distinct market through roughly the past 20 years. More specifically, since the 2007/08 Housing Crisis, there is a very consistent pattern and the Sine Waves display perfectly that frequency. The first observation is that there is a rough frequency when the S&P500 tops every 3.5 years. In this time-span of 42 months (3.5 years) the index either hits a High or already has and is on a minor decline before a stronger correction comes, which is always within the technical standards of pull-backs within a greater Bull Cycle expansion. Roughly also, the sell signal is given after the 1M RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line) having previously been on overbought territory (above 70.00). Once the index hits the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) again, usually a year at most after the Sine Wave top, the most optimal long-term buy signal emerges again. Investors who have applied this strategy/ principle since 2009, have had a total of 5 excellent buy opportunities for tremendous gains at the lowest possible risk. In conclusion, the market still has almost another year (roughly), until a sell signal emerges (July 2025). In our opinion, having always a low risk profile in our investments, it is advisable to be off stocks before that date just to be on the safe side. The important outcome of this finding, however, is that investors can continue feel safe buying for several more months, especially after the Fed gave a strong excuse to do so. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff. Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up. Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting. The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles. Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session. These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
SP:SPX
by Trading-Capital
2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Look at the daily chart and then you can’t be anything but neutral after yesterday and today. Consecutive doji bars with huge tails above and minor tails below. I don’t care about the new ath on the cash index since I trade the chart in front of me and that’s where the ath was in July and due to contract switch it’s now at 5782 while today hit 5756. The high was high enough to qualify as a tripple top now and we can sell off or make a new one above 5800. The dominant feature is the bull wedge and we are kinda closer to the middle than to the top or bottom. I can see this going either way to be honest. Ask yourself this, has the market a reason to sell off right now after the big rate cut? Answer was no before and definitely no after the cut. Does not mean it can not happen anyway. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5660 - 5800 bull case: Bulls made another higher high and a higher low. Does not look that good for bulls to buy the close 5680 but it sure as hell does not look bearish. As long as support and resistance are holding, I lean bullish and scalp long. Market is still trading above the 4h 20ema and obviously the daily, so bulls remain in control. Obvious targets above are 5782 and then 5800. Invalidation is below 5665. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5665 and that’s they only target for now. Until they can achieve that, they have no good arguments on their side. I do think market will spend some more time in this area before we see another breakout. If bears would get below 5665, their next target is the daily 20ema at 5640 and below that is the bull trend line around 5570. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Neutral between 5665 - 5782. Big range but that’s today’s range where we wildly went up and down multiple times. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5690 and selling 5720 but you needed wide stops to trade this.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
FOMC (FED) 50 bps Cut - What's Next???FED cut 50 bps today (as CME FED Watch Tool predicted), but it was one of the closer toss-up probabilities at 55% to 45% odds. Today's 50 bps leaves room for more to come and the market is anticipating 10 cuts in 11 FOMC meetings out through 2025. The market's resilience has been impressive, but until the market is satisfied with more "good news" on employment, inflation, and earnings growth...fresh all-time highs and rips may prove elusive in the near term. Thanks for watching and enjoy the video!!!
AMEX:IWM
by ChrisPulver