S&P 500 (SPX500)
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 24, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 successfully achieved our predefined target of Outer Index Rally, 6123, corresponding to the Key Resistance established at 6090. The market is currently exhibiting a phase of consolidation, as the bullish trend appears to be transiently suspended following the conclusion of the outer index rally. It is, however, essential to acknowledge that the absence of a significant corrective pullback may facilitate the re-initiation of a bullish trajectory toward additional rally targets. Such a development would position the market advantageously for the forthcoming phase of the bullish trend.
#202504 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls got another two bigger legs up which now makes it 5. Question now is, how likely is a continuation before a deeper pull-back? I do think Friday’s price action could have been the start of a wider profit taking by more bulls but until the bull channel is clearly broken and we have traded consecutive bars below the 4h 20ema, it won’t mean much. In the past 3 months we had very strong looking legs up, followed by deep pull-backs and we have not made a meaningful higher high since 2024-11-11. It’s reasonable to assume that we can hit 6200 before turning but I have big doubts about more upside beyond.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6200
bull case: Bulls made 140 points on the week with 5 clear legs up. Buying above 6130 is just bad no matter how you put it. Scalps ok but we have been in this trading range for 3 months now. Bulls want to print another ath and 6200 is the logical target. As long as the bull channel holds, they are favored and in control. Once we start closing gaps below again, more bulls will likely take profits.
Invalidation is below 5790.
bear case: Bears didn’t do much the past week but we are at big resistance again and shorts are great from a risk:reward perspective. The upside potential is probably limited to 6200/6300 but the downside is clear with 5800. For now you can only short this if you are willing to scale in higher, otherwise you have to wait for better selling pressure and a break of the bull trend line.
Invalidation is above 6300.
short term: Neutral 6100 - 6200, bearish below for 6000 and depending on how we get there, either wait for a lower high or we might continue down.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-26: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. For now we are stuck in a range 5800 - 6200.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Adjusted targets and added the current bull channel and two big gaps.
S&P 500: Bullish Breakout or False Move?Chart Analysis:
The S&P 500 is at a critical juncture, trading just below a significant horizontal resistance level near 6,114.
1️⃣ Key Resistance Level:
The horizontal level at 6,114 represents a pivotal resistance, as prior attempts to breach this zone were met with selling pressure.
A successful breakout above this level could signal further upside potential and a continuation of the bullish trend.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): Rising around 5,980, providing dynamic support and reflecting sustained upward momentum.
200-day SMA (red): Trending upward near 5,628, confirming the long-term bullish trend.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Hovering near 65, indicating strong bullish momentum but approaching overbought conditions.
MACD: Bullish momentum remains intact, with the MACD line rising and staying above the zero line.
What to Watch:
Traders should monitor for a confirmed breakout above 6,114 on increased volume to validate further upside potential.
Failure to break above this resistance could lead to a retracement toward the 50-day SMA or previous support levels.
Keep an eye on RSI for any bearish divergence or signs of momentum weakening.
The S&P 500 is at a make-or-break level, and its reaction at 6,114 will determine the next directional move.
-MW
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-24 : CRUSH patternToday's CRUSH pattern should resolve as a very big and very volatile price move. Based on my experience with CRUSH patterns, I believe today's move will be to the downside.
The current trend is bullish/up (over the past 3+ days) and the SPY has just closed at a new closing price ATH.
The QQQ is still below ATH levels and is moving cleanly in an EPP Flagging channel.
I believe the SPY will stall out and revert downward today - essentially touching the new ATH levels yesterday, then rolling downward into my 1-20 through 1-23 topping pattern.
Gold and Silver are moving strongly higher today as metals finally start to hedge against global risk factors. Get ready, I see metals moving much higher over the next 60 to 90+ days.
BTCUSD has moved into a dual flagging pattern that I believe will resolve to the downside by about 9AM PT (12 noon ET). If my analysis is correct, this breakdown in BTCUSD could be the catalyst for a broader market downturn.
It sure looks like today is going to be a great day for traders.
Get some.
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Dollar down, Metals, Miners, Crude Up! SPX new high, Bitcoin???Premarket US dollar down while precious metals and mining stocks get a bid higher. SPX closes above 6118$ making new record high. Crude oil gets a minor bounce, can it retrace to $77? What is Bitcoin doing next? Will it close higher or sell off from here? That is the question.
S&P 500 Index Sets Record HighS&P 500 Index Sets Record High
As shown by the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the stock index:
→ has increased by approximately 3.5% since the start of the year;
→ surpassed its previous all-time highs set in December.
Market participants’ optimism was driven by:
→ a strong start to earnings season and expectations of robust reports from major tech companies;
→ statements made by Donald Trump at the Davos forum, where the US president urged Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices and expressed the view that interest rates should be reduced. Overall, such measures are expected to foster economic growth.
Reuters quoted Lindsay Bell, Chief Strategist at 248 Ventures: buyers "like the idea of interest rates coming down, of oil prices coming down. All in all, the market is optimistic the more they hear about Trump policies. We're just seeing a reflection of that optimism."
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reveals:
→ At the end of 2024, price fluctuations formed an ascending channel (marked by blue lines).
→ The December dip appears to be a correction within the prevailing uptrend. Bears managed to push the price below the lower blue line, but only for about a week.
→ After breaking the correction channel (shaded in orange), bulls faced brief resistance (indicated by the arrow) at the 6040 level.
→ The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone and signals divergence. This suggests a minor pullback could occur, potentially testing the aforementioned 6040 level.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to the area of 50% Fibo lvl (5972).Colleagues, I believe that price is completing wave “1” and I believe that a correction in wave “2” is inevitable.
I expect the price to reach the area of 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels (5972.9). I believe that a small update of the maximum of wave “1” is possible.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPX500 ICC Long Trade SetupPrice dropped from 6070 creating the bottom (L).
Before that bottom, price made that push upside (H).
After (L) price broke above (H), giving us an indication.
We knew that every time price broke back above (H) buyers were ready to buy.
First entry was valid, it was on session and zooming in the 15m buyers were strong and price was creating higher lows.
Although price didn't hit TP, stopped us and continued down to grab the liquidity sitting below the last low (L).
Then again, higher supports, zoom into 15m around the level of reaction to find highs breaking highs.
Back in session, price broke above the level so we re-entered buys, same trade as before, same SL and TP.
Some we lose some we win, what's important is sticking to the plan and managing risk!
S&P500 - Preparing For The Final Bullrun!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is still heading higher:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Although the S&P500 has been creating new all time highs for the past couple of months, charts are clearly telling us that this bullrun is not over yet. We already saw two textbook cycles of +90% each and during 2025, we will see the completion of the third and final bullrun.
Levels to watch: $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SPX500 to find a top?US500 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Previous resistance located at 6102.
A 5 wave bullish count has been completed at 6107.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
We look to Sell at 6102 (stop at 6147)
Our profit targets will be 6003 and 5955
Resistance: 6102 / 6107 / 6179
Support: 6003 / 5955 / 5886
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-23-25 : Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern suggests the markets will attempt to hold near recent support while attempting to determine trend. I view it as move of an indecisive day - looking to see if the markets can break to new all-time highs or if the markets have reached the top I've been discussing.
In my opinion, today will be a pause/consolidation day in the SPY/QQQ - leading to the big CRUSH pattern tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are under quite a bit of pressure this morning. The metals pattern is a BOTTOM pattern. So, I expect this selling in metals to be reflective of issues that will drive the SPY/QQQ downward tomorrow (the CRUSH pattern) and likely result in a moderate downward trend in the SPY/QQQ over the next 2 weeks.
Metals will recover and try to move higher as metals continues to hedge against global risks.
BTCUSD is moving downward - trying to break below the Flag Support level of the EPP pattern.
I believe tomorrow will be a pivotal day for the markets and today will be a fairly consolidated day overall.
Get some.
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SPX new all time high. GE ripping today. GOLD, OIL, NGSPX puts in new all time high yesterday tags 6100$!! GE beats earnings this morning. NFLX rips higher yesterday as earnings blowout. ORCL, MSFT, PLTR all move higher due to TRUMP Stargate program news. Will the markets continue higher or sell off this week??? GOLD, OIL, NATGAS all making moves.
S&P 500 Analysis: Approaching All-Time High with Critical LevelsS&P 500 Analysis
The price has risen approximately 1.00% since yesterday, driven by strong earnings results. It is currently aiming to reach the (ATH) of 6100. A pullback to 6073 and 6051 is likely if the price stabilizes below this level.
However, if a 4-hour candle closes above 6100, the bullish trend is expected to continue, targeting 6143.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6100
Resistance Levels: 6120, 6143
Support Levels: 6073, 6051, 6020
Trend Outlook:
Bullish if the ATH of 6100 is broken.
Bearish while the price remains below 6100.
previous idea:
SPX500 H4 | Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,042.53 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 5,995.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 6,102.21 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area 6104 (Wave 3).Colleagues, I see that the price has completed wave “4” and is now forming wave “5” of the higher order.
I believe that the price may go into correction in the lower wave “2” to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5896.9, after which I expect the upward movement to continue to the resistance area 6104.
The upward movement is the priority, so I warn that the price may just continue to move upward, updating the wave “1”.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Conflicting signals for the S&P 500 just off its record highThe S&P 500 closed less than 4 points from its record high on Wednesday. On one hand, the reversal candle with bearish volumes suggest a pullback, on the other we've seen bears humbled under similar scenarios over the past 18 months. Today I explain why I think a bullish breakout is on the cards, while highlighting my bearish concerns for market positioning.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
S&P ES Long setup target 6129 / Calls SPY target 605Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (6020.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 17) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (6129.00).
CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (6129.00), Target 2 at 161.8% (6206.00) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6243.50)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5983.00).
Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (605), Target 2 at 161.8% (613) and Target 3 at 178.6 (616)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (592).
NVIDIA's Momentum A Breakout Story in Progress1. Trend and Structure
The chart showcases an upward momentum, breaking out of a prior resistance level, indicating bullish pressure. The breakout aligns with the upward-sloping trendline, which serves as a strong support structure.
2.Breakout Confirmation
The price has successfully broken through a resistance level, confirming a bullish breakout. This signals potential continuation toward the marked target zone.
3.Entry Point
The entry appears to have been taken near the breakout point, at approximately $141.60, aligning with the bullish momentum.
4. Target (Take Profit)
The take-profit level is marked at $152.94, representing a reasonable upward move from the breakout point. This target aligns with the continuation of the trend.
5. Stop Loss
The stop-loss level is placed at $133.46, below the recent support and trendline. This level ensures protection in case the breakout fails.
6.Risk-Reward Ratio
The setup demonstrates a healthy risk-to-reward ratio, with potential gains outweighing the risks. This indicates a well-calculated trade.
7. Technical Indicators
The momentum of the candles breaking the resistance shows strong bullish interest. No immediate signs of bearish divergence or reversal are visible in the chart.
The chart reflects a bullish breakout setup in NVIDIA's stock price. With strong momentum and a clear trendline breakout, the trade aligns well with the current upward movement. The target and stop-loss levels are well-placed, adhering to a disciplined trading strategy.
Morgan Stanley Breaks Free A Bullish Wedge Reversal in ActionMorgan Stanley (MS) on the 4-hour chart has confirmed a breakout from a descending wedge pattern, signaling a strong bullish reversal. The breakout is accompanied by increased momentum, as indicated by the clean surge above the wedge’s upper boundary. This setup is a classic reversal signal, with bulls reclaiming control.
The entry is placed at 137.87, capitalizing on the breakout momentum. The stop loss is strategically positioned at 123.50, below the wedge’s lower boundary, to safeguard against invalidation of the setup. The take profit is set at 155.35, aligning with the wedge’s projected target based on its height.
The trade exhibits a solid risk-to-reward ratio, and the breakout aligns with the broader bullish market sentiment for the stock. With buyers driving the price upwards, this trade setup offers a high-probability opportunity for trend continuation.
SPX 500 Returns to All-Time HighsAfter two days of Trump’s official inauguration at the White House, the market maintains a short-term optimistic bias. This has allowed the price to rise by more than 1.5% as expectations grow for low-tax policies that could potentially boost domestic consumption in the United States.
Steady Trend:
The growing wave of buying positions has brought focus back to the long-term trend that has persisted in the stock index for several months. However, the price will now need to confront the resistance zone at all-time highs to confirm the bullish bias in the coming sessions.
RSI:
At the moment, the RSI line maintains a significant upward slope and marks levels above the neutral zone at 50. However, it is approaching the inflection point near the overbought zone marked by the 70 level of the indicator. RSI oscillations near this zone could begin to trigger bearish corrections in the actual resistance as an imbalance of long positions starts to emerge.
Key Levels:
6.082: The most important short-term resistance level, coinciding with all-time highs and the upper Bollinger Band. Consistent oscillations above this level could set a new record high and reinforce the formation of the long-term bullish trend.
5.963: A nearby support level, located in the middle of the current small lateral range, which could serve as a resting point for future bearish corrections in price.
5.847: The definitive support level, where the latest market lows coincide with the barrier marked by the 100-period moving average. Persistent price oscillations below this level could jeopardize the current long-term bullish bias and pave the way for a fresh wave of selling pressure.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-22-25: BreakAway PatternToday's BreakAway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move aggressively away from yesterday's closing price level. I do believe the markets are over-extended to the upside. Which is why I continue to warn traders that we may be nearing a top/peak price level and to prepare for a rollover type of top in the SPY/QQQ.
My broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would top near Jan 20-21. I believe we are seeing a type of carryover momentum move to the upside as a result of optimism related to the Inauguration.
Now that the Inauguration is complete, I believe the markets will start to "resettle" into reality.
The SPY/QQQ should move into a rolling type of top pattern over the next 3-5+ days, then trend downward into my Feb 9-11 DEEP-V Base/Bottom.
Gold and Silver are likely to move higher in an attempt to hedge against global risks and uncertainty.
BTCUSD is moving through the current EPP pattern as the flagging breaks down. This should prompt a move back to the 92k level, then a brief pause before trending further downward.
Remember, the markets are likely to stall out through H1:2025. Get ready for volatile price swings before we move back into trending near the end of 2025.
Get some.
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