SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-17-25 : Gap Up Higher PatternToday's pattern is a Gap Up Higher in Counter Trend mode.
I believe this pattern would have resulted in a Gap Down Lower price trend related to the counter-trend setup. But it looks like the foreign markets drove the SPY/QQQ higher.
The obvious disruption to the SPY Cycle Patterns recently has come from the post-election concerns and the expectations of a broader credit/debt market crisis (which seems to be subsiding).
I believe we have to get past the Inauguration before we'll be able to see if the markets attempt to establish any defined price trend or continue to trade in a sideways price mode.
Gold and Silver are struggling to muscle higher - which I believe is the likely outcome for metals.
BTCUSD has moved back above $100k - but may struggle above the downward-sloping price channel.
Overall, at this point, I would suggest traders pull profits on any trades they have open as we move into the new Trump Administration and a slew of new EOs and new policies that may disrupt the markets.
We are very likely going to see some new price volatility over the next 30+ days.
Get some.
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S&P 500 (SPX500)
US100 Trade LogMarket Context:
- The CPI session’s top wick aligns with a 4H FVG rejection , signaling a high-probability short setup. Oscillators confirm exhaustion, supporting bearish momentum.
Trade Parameters:
- Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 minimum .
- Base Risk: 1% account risk for initial positions.
- Additional Risk: Two half-contract size positions added, bringing total risk to between 1% and 2% to capture extended targets if price runs higher.
Missed Entry:
- Ideal short entry at the 0.5 level of the FVG , confluenced with the daily Kijun resistance. Hesitation led to a missed opportunity.
Retracement Importance:
- Small retracements, while frustrating, are necessary to sustain upside momentum. They provide clean re-entry points for continuation trades.
Conclusion:
- Strategic use of added risk positions and focusing on high-probability zones like FVGs and Kijun levels is crucial for optimizing profits.
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low.
current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf)
key levels: 5900 - 6030
bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above.
Invalidation is below 5950.
bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish.
Invalidation is above 6020.
short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
Daily Market Watchlist Analysis by Skeptic📊 Navigating the forex and crypto markets requires sharp analysis and timely decisions. Today, I'll break down my forex daily watchlist , analyzing key indices and commodities to uncover potential trading opportunities. Let's dive in, starting with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
💲 DXY Analysis
Timeframe: Daily & 4H
Daily Chart: DXY has shown a strong bullish trend, recently rejecting the 110 resistance level and pulling back to a key support zone. There's potential for a bullish rebound towards 110, or even a breakout for further upside continuation.
Fundamental Insight : Current fundamental data shows balanced supply and demand, causing market indecision.
4H Chart: Five consecutive neutral candles suggest indecisiveness. It's wise to reduce risk exposure, limit the number of trades, and tighten stop-losses until a clearer direction emerges.
Trading Plan:
Bullish Scenario: If DXY breaks above 110 with momentum, look for USD long positions across pairs.
Neutral/Bearish Scenario: Stay cautious; avoid heavy exposure until the short-term trend clarifies.
🥇 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis
Timeframe: Daily & 4H
Daily Chart: Gold is correcting after its primary weekly bullish trend. Following a three-wave correction, it has resumed an uptrend within a rising channel, now facing significant resistance at 2718. A breakout could signal early entry for a move towards the 2789 high.
4H Chart: The ascending channel is more visible here. A potential pullback to the 2693 support zone could offer a solid buying opportunity.
Trading Plan:
Set a Buy Stop near 2718 with a safe stop-loss below the previous low or 2693.
📈 S&P 500 Index (SPX500) Analysis
Timeframe: 4H
After a bullish impulse reaching 5980, SPX500 is undergoing a healthy correction, signaling strength in the upward move.
Watching for the RSI to revisit the 70 level and a resistance breakout for confirmation.
For aggressive traders, the 5928 support zone offers a potential buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
Conservative: Wait for RSI to confirm momentum and a breakout above resistance.
Aggressive: Enter near 5928 with a tight stop-loss below the support level.
🚀Markets are showing signs of consolidation and indecision, making risk management crucial. Focus on high-probability setups and wait for clear confirmations before committing to trades.
Which market are you focusing on today? Share your thoughts in the comments!
✍️I'm Skeptic , here to simplify trading and help you achieve mastery step by step. Let's keep growing together!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-16 : Momentum Rally PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will continue a rally phase - trending on the momentum from yesterday. It is likely the SPY/QQQ will attempt to rally and break away from the downward-sloping price channel I show on my charts.
Remember, my broader cycle pattern research suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to rally into Jan 20-23, then peak and roll downward/sideways into a Feb 9-10 V-Bottom pattern.
As I highlight in this video, the markets appear to be moving into a consolidation phase within the current downward-sloping price channel. I'm watching to see if the new Trump administration brings a BUMP (like last time) that breaks the US markets away from this consolidation trend.
Remember, the data on the US economy and earnings continues to be strong. A Trump-Bump will likely happen again, pushing the US markets into even greater dominance as the 900-lb Gorilla compared to other global economies.
However, until global central banks can move their economies to become more independent of US economic demand and imports, the process of working through the excesses of the COVID/Spending-spree administration (Biden) will continue as long as wealth in the US goes unchallenged (by some crisis or economic event).
So, again, expect the 900lb Gorilla to continue to dominate while there is no major crisis event in the future.
Gold and Silver should rally today on a RALLY pattern as well.
I believe BTCUSD is struggling to find support and may move downward over the next 10+ days.
We'll see what happens.
Get some.
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S&P 500 Index Rises to Psychological LevelS&P 500 Index Rises to Psychological Level
The US stock market experienced an upswing following the release of inflation data yesterday. According to ForexFactory:
→ The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations at 2.9%.
→ The monthly Core CPI came in at 0.2%, below analysts' forecast of 0.3%.
Market participants interpreted this as a positive signal, leading to the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) gaining over 1% in the first 30 minutes after the data release.
As reported by Reuters:
→ Concerns about inflation eased, reviving hopes for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, buoyed by a strong start to the earnings season (which we will cover in more detail later);
→ However, the rally may be short-lived, as inflation in the US remains uncomfortably high and could increase further due to aggressive tariff and tax policies under the new Trump administration;
→ Analysts caution that the Federal Reserve's rate is likely to remain unchanged for some time.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that since early August—when the Japanese stock market crash triggered concerns of a global recession, dragging US equities lower—the price has been in an upward trend, marked by a blue channel. The January mid-month low has provided a more precise point to define the lower boundary of this channel.
From this perspective, traders should note that the current S&P 500 price has reached a resistance zone, which consists of:
→ The median line of the blue channel;
→ The psychological level of 6,000 points;
→ The upper red line, drawn through the local highs of December 2024 and January 2025, suggesting that the decline beginning on 18th December could be viewed as an intermediate correction within the blue ascending channel.
This resistance area may serve as a key test of the bulls' determination to complete the correction and resume the upward trend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
2025-01-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral around 6000. Market is close to the daily 20ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. I won’t even think about longing this but it’s obviously wrong to short too early. As long as bulls keep it above 5950, they are good and in full control of the market. Targets above are 6030 and then 5050. If bulls break above the bear trend line, there aren’t many reasons why we could not just melt to 6100+.
comment: Huge bull day but right at multiple prior resistances. Bad buy no matter how you put it. I would actually not be surprised if we trade below 5950 or lower tomorrow. We have been going wildly up and down in this bear wedge/channel and that pattern is valid until clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf)
key levels: 5900 - 6030
bull case: Bulls got the big move from the CPI news and they want to test the bear trend line and break above it. It’s just not a good buy and hoping for a breakout. I won’t make stuff up here. If bulls break above 6020, next target is 6068 and then 6100.
Invalidation is below 5795.
bear case: Bears need anything to stop the rally. They have good arguments with the daily ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. They came around the prior weeks and until that bear trend line is broken, I expect them to keep this a lower high as well. It would be pretty funny if we completely reverse today before we go into the weekend.
Invalidation is above 6030.
short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 15m chart around 5956 was good.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 1-15 Followup: Rally Into Jan 20-23This video was started to highlight the incredible predictive capabilities of my SPY Cycle Patterns and longer-term Cycle Research.
It seems almost impossible to be able to somewhat accurately predict future price moves - but I'm able to do it with moderate success - sometimes months and years into the future.
What does that mean to you - well, it should mean you want to pay attention to my research/videos and learn how to take advantage of my continued research.
This video highlights why the Doom-sayers are wrong. The markets will continue to trend upward until the 2030-2033 peak. That's when traders need to be prepared for a broad market downtrend.
But, it sure is fun getting emails and announcements from all the people that are now calling for a "great reset" to take place.
It may happen in certain countries, but this is a market of economies - not a single economic market. What happens in some countries does not always happen to all countries.
As the old saying goes - this is a market of stocks, not a stock market.
Get ready - the next 5+ years should be full of incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
Get some.
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S&P Scenario 2.1.2025In this market, in order to consider some long setups, we need to hold the 6060 level or something around it, and since we didn't hold this support, we had a way to go short after the breakout. Now I see a scenario like this: the market should come for the sfp below the low as shown, or it will start to rise directly into the long, but as long as we are below the 6060 level, I'm considering a long setup. I would take that if the sfp below the low was met.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-15 : Inside BreakawayToday is going to be a very interesting day.
Mortgage data came in very strong, while CPI data came in moderately weaker. That is setting up a very strong GAP RALLY phase in the markets.
Shorts are going to get SQUEEZED HARD this morning, and I suspect we may see a carry-through rally lasting most of the day.
Be cautious of a pullback after the big GAP opening (higher) this morning.
Gold and Silver are attempting to move higher - which is perfect if the US Dollar weakens moderately. Overall, Gold and Silver are attempting to hedge risk factors into 2025.
Bitcoin will likely run into resistance just below $100k and attempt to fall downward again.
This is a very exciting week because it appears the markets are shaking off the debt/credit/yields concerns and moving back to normal.
Remember, where else will investors place their capital for Growth and Returns - other than the US? As I see it, the US markets are still the 900lb Gorilla in the global markets simply because of the ability of the US economy to rebound and recover much quicker than other foreign economies.
Get some.
BIG SHORT SQUEEZE this morning.
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S&P 500 Outlook: CPI Data and Earnings to Shape Market DirectionS&P 500 Analysis: Pre-Bell Outlook
Earnings, CPI Expectations Lift Wall Street Futures; Asia Mixed, Europe Gains
Wall Street futures edged moderately higher in pre-market trading on Wednesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from Washington and the kickoff of the fourth-quarter earnings season.
The CPI report, set to be released today, could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 is likely to remain under pressure as long as the price trades below 5863. In such a scenario, a decline toward 5829 and 5781 is anticipated, especially if the CPI data comes in at 2.9% or higher.
Conversely, if the CPI data is below 2.8%, it could support a bullish momentum, with the index potentially rising toward 5937.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 5863
Resistance Levels: 5888, 5937, 5969
Support Levels: 5830, 5802, 5781
Trend Outlook
Bearish trend while trading below 5863.
Market Analisys: S&P 500SP:SPX
In recent months, the S&P 500 has experienced notable fluctuations:
1. All-Time High : The index reached a record high of 6,099.97 points on December 6, 2024.
2. Correction : It then faced a correction, dropping to a low of 5,805.65 points by January 8, 2025.
3. Current Performance : As of January 14, 2025, the index closed at 5,842.91 points, reflecting a slight 0.11% increase compared to the previous day.
4. Technical Outlook : Analysts highlight potential weakness, with the next support level identified at 5,771.5 points.
In summary, the SP:SPX has exhibited volatility, peaking in December 2024 and entering a correction phase in early 2025.
Let's analyze in detail the various phases that have led us to this point – starting from October 27, 2023, the last moment with a significant downturn.
Since then, we’ve seen an increase of about 50%, with a maximum drawdown of 10%. This represents a more than positive performance. Prior to this, we experienced a brief decline lasting around 90 days, with a drop of approximately 11%.
Subsequent rallies have generally been strong, although they have been shorter and more contained. In total, we’ve experienced 5 rallies and 5 pullbacks. Currently, we are in a downtrend.
As mentioned earlier, except for the first rally, the most significant one, recent bull runs have been consistently interrupted by unwelcome news, data that does not meet investor expectations, and announcements from the FED and ECB indicating that interest rate cuts will be smaller than anticipated. All of this has brought us to the current situation.
We are now facing a maximum decline of about 5-6%, with a bounce on the trendline that has been guiding us since October 2023. This is all happening as inflation data is released today. The market seems to have entered a phase where it seeks further confirmations from the economy, and the technical chart is showing exactly that. Additionally, we have several other key economic data releases scheduled for this week.
What do you think the market’s next move will be?
Awaiting Confirmation of Bullish ReversalFundamentally not so strong but the bearish moment is now fighting.
We do not have only one confirmation.
On Weekly Chart, We have a sluggesh Head and Shoulder pattern .before its tripple bottom .
The two patterns were undervalued by investors which lead the weekly close below its monthly support (note: monthly support was also confirmed by 61% Fibb Level on Monthly chart from its bottom till up.)
In my opinion, a weekly close above will create an engulfing bullish with the greater volume. Which may indicate the price to @280 area and a weekly close above @280 will disclose the price beyond 500:
OFFCOURSE ITS A LONG TERM GAME!
S&P 500 key levels and scenariosAfter Monday's reversal-looking candle, all eyes today will be on whether the bulls will be able to take charge and further erode the bears' control.
Earlier, weaker PPI data helped to fuel a rise in US futures, but since then we have seen a bit of a pullback from the highs, although nothin too alarming so far.
Key support to watch include Monday's high at 5843, followed by 5831. A daily close below this 5831-5843 area would be a bearish development. In that scenario, a drop to take out liquidity below Monday's range would then become a likely scenario.
Key short-term resistance comes in around 5873-5882 (shaded in grey). A daily close above this area could signal a trend resumption.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Earnings Season Cranks Up for Gainless S&P 500. What to Expect?The S&P 500 SPX is now showing nearly zero growth since Election Day, November 5. Markets were euphoric to see Donald Trump win the White House for another four years and pushed the S&P 500 to the rarefied air of 6,000 points and above. But that’s not the case anymore.
A flurry of data has poured cold water on that breakneck rally, including the latest nonfarm payrolls, which showed employers tapped a whopping 256,000 workers in December, far outpacing expectations of 156,000. The news fanned fears that the Federal Reserve might take its time in cutting interest rates — every investor’s biggest concern right now.
It’s up to the earnings season to rejuvenate a falling stock market. To many, the fourth-quarter earnings updates will be the most consequential event as it will also mark President Joe Biden’s departure and the arrival of the main character, Donald Trump.
First through the door, as is tradition, are the heavyweight players on Wall Street. This week traders will get to see the earnings results from big banks including JPMorgan JPM , Wells Fargo WFC and Goldman Sachs GS . In addition, the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock BLK will also post its performance.
The banks’ updates will provide a glimpse into investor appetite for big-shot dealmaking, business sentiment and also how daring and bold consumers were in their spending activity. Things like net interest income — how much the bank earned on interest after paying out deposits — will be a key gauge for the banking system’s health.
Here’s what’s coming from Wall Street’s household names (and some extra).
➡️ Wednesday, January 15, before the bell:
Citi C
Goldman Sachs GS
JPMorgan JPM
Wells Fargo WFC
BlackRock BLK
Bank of New York Mellon BK
➡️ Thursday, January 16, before the open:
Bank of America BAC
Morgan Stanley MS
U.S. Bancorp USB
Other earnings include UnitedHealth UNH .
Once markets digest the updates from the lending giants, the focus will shift to the next big thing — the Magnificent Seven . It’s a high bar once again for America’s most powerful corporate juggernauts.
Investors expect Mag 7 earnings to be up 22% from the same period last year while revenue is eyeballed to have grown 12.3%. The consensus views follow the elite club’s 32.9% earnings jump in the third quarter on revenue increase of 15.4%.
Fun fact: the Mag 7 members accounted for 23.1% of all profits in the S&P 500 for the quarter ending September. For the three months to December, they are expected to consume about a quarter of the earnings pie.
And for 2025, their market cap is projected to devour more than one-third of the S&P 500’s value, which is around $50 trillion. For the tech geeks, here’s the Mag 7 earnings slate:
➡️ Wednesday, January 29, after the closing bell:
Microsoft MSFT
Facebook parent Meta META
Tesla TSLA
➡️ Thursday, January 30, after the closing bell:
Apple AAPL
Amazon AMZN
➡️ Tuesday, February 4, after the closing bell:
Google parent Alphabet GOOGL
➡️ Wednesday, February 19 (tentative), after the closing bell:
Nvidia NVDA
Overall, the foresighted market gurus (i.e. the analysts) expect all companies in the S&P 500 to report a roughly 12% advance in quarterly profits compared to the year-ago quarter. For 2025, the consensus call is a 15% increase in corporate profits from last year.
There are, of course, the permabears among us who spell doom and gloom. They say that Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could hinder corporate growth by raising prices for US companies that rely on overseas products. And if those companies decide to pass these costs to customers, then inflation might rear back up, throwing the markets into another painful cycle of higher interest rates.
What’s your take? Are you optimistic about the corporate earnings season? And are you excited to see more growth in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments and let’s spin up the discussion.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-14 : Harami/Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will stay somewhat flat/sideways related to building a base.
Yesterday, 1-13, my broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would establish a "base" - leading to a "peak" on 1-18 and a major top on 1-20. Because of this, I believe the markets will attempt to melt upward into a peaking pattern (with the SPY possibly reach 595-598) before stalling out ahead of the Inauguration event.
Gold and Silver may follow this trend after stalling a bit today. Overall, I believe Gold & Silver will move upward attempting to hedge against global risk factors playing out over the next 30+ days.
Bitcoin rejected the breakdown move yesterday - setting up another attempt at a THIRD sideways FLAG formation in an EPP pattern. This is very unusual - but given what the markets have been doing over the past 30 days - it is what it is.
More than likely, we'll see Bitcoin rally a bit higher (near $100k), then stall again and attempt another breakdown event.
Yesterday's new low suggests a breakdown is likely.
Get some.
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S&P ES Short setup target 5811 / Put SPY target 574Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) has already found resistance at the Fib level 78.6% (6057.75) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 7) has closed below retracement Fib level 38.2% (5963.75). My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go down to hit first target at Fib level -27.2% (5811.50).
S&P CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 5811.50, Target 2 at -61.8% (5731) and Target 3 at -78.6 (5691.75)
Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (5991.25).
Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart (Down Fib from 602.48 to 580.50) shows price to go down to Target 1 at -27.2% (574.52), Target 2 at -61.8% (566.92) and Target 3 at -78.6 (563.22)
Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (591.50).
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strong buying into US close and I expect 5900 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday. The bear channel is valid until broken, so I want to either long closer to 5800 or short closer to 5900.
current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle on the daily tf)
key levels: 5800 - 6020
bull case: Bulls want to hit 5900 again and the bear trend line from the descending triangle. Their breakout late today is reasonably strong to expect follow-through tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we see early weakness and then a lower high around 5830/5840 before we move higher.
Invalidation is below 5795.
bear case: Bears will likely wait for 5900 and the bear trend line before they initiate bigger shorts again. Overall we see more two-sided trading today than a strong bull trend, which means the upside is likely limited and prior resistance will hold. Bears want to hit 5800 and likely somewhat lower to retest the October and November lows.
Invalidation is above 6030.
short term: Bearish closer to 5900 to trade back down to 5800 and longs only on a decent dip below 5850 again for target 5900.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high. Clear range 5820 - 5840 which was amazing to trade back and forth.