SPX500 H4 I Bearish Momentum?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we will wait for price to pullback to our sell entry at 6,072.05, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be set at 6,031.03, a pullback support.
The stop loss will be placed at 6,110.58, above the 127.2% Fibo extension
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S&P 500 (SPX500)
2024-12-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Don’t short new lows because this is not a strong bear trend. Wait for pullbacks. I’d be surprised if we hit 6100 tomorrow but I can’t rule it out. My next bear target is 6035 for tomorrow and there is a good chance we print 6000 or lower this week.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment : Strongest bull bars that late in the trend? Tough. I have two higher targets still. First is the bull trend line to around 6160 and second is a measured move target to 6300. Bears are doing nothing but it’s also unlikely that we just continue higher in this tight of a channel on the daily chart. Market is on it’s last legs up and these windfall profits will get taken off the table before they disappear. You don’t get bullish this late in a trend, you get cautious.
current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon
key levels: 6000 - 6170
bull case: Bulls did not much today to fight it. Profit taking was expected and I can’t see many bulls buying 6035 but rather waiting for 6000. Not much else to I can come up with here.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Bears want to test 6000 and the daily 20ema near the bull trend line. 3 Perfect reasons to expect 6000-6030 to be hit tomorrow/Wednesday. I do not expect market to just sell off but rather hurt many traders on both sides first, by chopping back and forth. Perfect for bears would be to stay below 6084.
Invalidation is above 6120.
short term: Not shorting the lows but looking for shorts on pullbacks. I want to see 6035 and 6000 or lower this week.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Bar 13 - 23 was a good first leg and strong enough to expect some follow through. Bar 35 was a good signal bar and bar 38 should have been your entry bar, once it strongly broke below 6089.
Last Leg XAUOverall uptrend still needs a leg to complete its wave.
Considering higher lows of around -10%, the recent drop is the 4th point in our Elliot Wave analysis.
Last leg is to form the head and shoulders, synonym of long term tops.
I think the focus will be towards currencies, with countries focusing on Trumponomics, strengthening currencies for the dollar against tariffs. PBOC just reached an ATH in their gold hoarding.
Dollar itself might feel some headwind, because of the recent rise in DXY, a cool down soon is expected with my lower yields analysis. This would go well with foreign currencies reaching up while some headwind causes the USD to lag.
Let's see
ES/SPX morning update December 9Last friday, buyers reclaiming 6088 triggered a nice long. Since then, ES has been basinh, with 6088 now acting as support. We’re forming a 3-day “megaphone” pattern now.
As of now: 6088 (already tested) and 6081 are supports. Buyers holding above keeps 6109 and 6117+ targets in play. If 6081 fails, sell triggers could take us down to 6068.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-9: Nothing PatternI'm visiting family most of this week and will be disrupted from my normal schedule for another 3+ days.
Please be aware I may not be as available for questions/comments as I usually am.
Please watch how the markets are extremely overbought at this moment and will likely fall into a pullback mode.
I don't expect this to be a big pullback - but big enough that you should consider locking in profits before the move plays out.
Get some.
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NEW IDEA FOR S&P500Technically, the S&P500 is trading in an ascending channel on the four-hour time frame, and now, given the high of the bullish Super Komo, there is a possibility of an increase in the price. Overall, this scenario is strengthened that the S&P500, provided that it maintains and does not record any four-hour candlestick close below the important support range in the 6081-6075 range, can rise to the resistance of the middle level of the ascending channel at 6118.
S&P 500: Riding the Wave of OptimismS&P 500: Riding the Wave of Optimism Amid Economic and Political Dynamics
The S&P 500 continues its upward trajectory, buoyed by tech-driven gains and investor optimism, even as mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties loom. Here’s a deep dive into the current market landscape and what it means for the benchmark index.
---
Economic and Market Drivers
Tech-Led Rally and AI Optimism
The S&P 500's performance has been significantly influenced by gains in the technology and AI sectors. Investors are betting on the transformative potential of AI, propelling stocks like Microsoft and Meta to the forefront. However, regulatory scrutiny, such as the FTC's probe into Microsoft's AI software sales, introduces a layer of uncertainty.
Resilient Labor Market
While the Challenger Layoffs report showed a slight uptick, JOLTS job openings rose to 7.744 million in October, indicating a stable labor market. This balance supports the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy, as Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the economy’s strength and gradual progress in reducing inflation.
Mixed Economic Indicators
- **ISM Services PMI** fell to 52.1, below expectations of 55.7, suggesting a slowdown in service sector growth.
- **Durable goods orders** increased by 0.3%, meeting expectations and reinforcing the narrative of economic stability.
- **Construction spending** rose 0.4%, signaling robust investment activity.
- **University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Prelim** came in at 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%), showing slightly higher inflation expectations.
- **University of Michigan Sentiment Prelim** reached 74 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8), reflecting improved consumer confidence.
These data points reflect a U.S. economy navigating challenges while avoiding a hard landing—a scenario that fuels investor confidence.
---
Federal Reserve Policy: A Turning Point?
Fed officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, have hinted at the potential for a December rate cut, with futures markets now pricing in an **85% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction**, up from **67%** before the recent jobs report. Inflation progress appears to have stalled, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman cautioning that more robust measures may be necessary to meet the 2% target by 2025.
The November jobs report further influenced expectations:
- US Nonfarm Payrolls rose to 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised to 36k).
- US Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%).
- US Average Earnings YoY remained steady at 4% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%).
These figures reflect a labor market resilient enough to accommodate rate cuts, which could provide an additional boost to equity markets.
---
Corporate Highlights:
- Salesforce reported Q3 revenue of $9.44 billion, exceeding estimates, but missed on adjusted EPS, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.
- Meta (Facebook) is aligning its strategies with evolving political landscapes, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg seeks to navigate regulatory and policy shifts.
- *Microsoft faces FTC scrutiny, underscoring increasing regulatory challenges in the tech sector.
Despite these challenges, corporate earnings have largely supported market valuations, adding another layer of support for the S&P 500.
---
Seasonality and Sentiment:
December has historically been a strong month for the S&P 500, driven by:
- Holiday-driven consumer spending.
- Portfolio rebalancing.
- End-of-year tax considerations.
snapshot
The Fear & Greed Index, currently at 53, indicates a greed-driven sentiment. This optimism aligns with traders pricing in a higher likelihood of Fed rate cuts, reflecting a favorable market environment.
---
Outlook: Optimism with Caution
The S&P 500’s upward momentum is underpinned by strong tech-sector performance, resilient economic data, and seasonal tailwinds. However, challenges such as geopolitical risks, regulatory scrutiny, and uneven progress in disinflation could temper gains.
The Fed's flexibility and potential rate cuts are positive signals for the market, bolstering growth-oriented sectors. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant, monitoring corporate earnings, economic releases, and geopolitical developments.
In the near term, the S&P 500 appears poised to end the year on a strong note. However, with inflationary pressures, mixed economic indicators, and geopolitical uncertainties still in play, the path forward will require a delicate balance between economic stability and investor confidence.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.09.2024🔮
📅Tue Dec 10
All Day
OPEC Meetings
📅Wed Dec 11
⏰8:30am
Core CPI m/m
CPI m/m
CPI y/y
⏰10:30am
Crude Oil Inventories
📅Thu Dec 12
⏰8:30am
Core PPI m/m
PPI m/m
Unemployment Claims
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Hard to be bullish after this leg up but the structure is clear. We have two big trend lines running up to 6300 and a measured move target. I’d love to see a deeper pullback to at least 5900 but as of now that’s a pipe dream for the bears. The price is truth and it just screams bullishness. Last pullback was 170 points and that would bring us to 5940, so close enough. Can we really go up to 6300? I don’t know but it would be naive to say that we could not. We made 6100 and that already is the most overvalued the market has ever been. So obviously we can go further up. If we print 5900 on Monday, I would not be surprised one tiny bit but that is just much more unlikely than 6300 at this point.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs.
comment : Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it.
current market cycle: Bull trend - very late
key levels: 6000 - 6300
bull case: Bulls buy it all but it’s climactic. They still see multiple trend lines leading to even higher prices and as long as this keeps going, they keep buying. The first pullback will likely touch the daily 20ema soon and I do not expect it to just slice through it. Bulls buying any small pullback, made money for 3 weeks now, they won’t stop all of a sudden but at some point next week, they need to start taking profits to reduce risk.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Same as for dax. Until bears come around much stronger, everything in here is low probability. I would prefer a huge dip down to 5900 before we get another rally up to 6100 or even 6300. Next week will probably be the most important in December. Anything below 5900 would certainly put a huge limitation on targets above 6100.
Invalidation is above 5900.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
→ Last Sunday we traded 6051 and now we are at 6099. Good outlook.
short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added a potential two-legged correction for next week but not later (my best guess as of now)
ANF: Positioned for Growth Amid Strong Financial MomentumAbercrombie & Fitch Co. ( NYSE:ANF ): Positioned for Growth Amid Strong Financial Momentum
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $151.35 (activated)
- Stop-Loss: $110.18
- Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: $205.94
- TP2: $291.21
Company Overview:
NYSE:ANF is a leading specialty retailer offering casual apparel and accessories under brands like Abercrombie & Fitch and Hollister, catering to diverse demographics globally. The company has demonstrated resilience and adaptability, maintaining its relevance in a competitive retail market.
Financial Performance:
- In Q3 2024, NYSE:ANF reported a net income increase of **10.9%**, totalling $131.98 million.
- Revenue grew **14% year-over-year** to a record **$1.21 billion**, marking six consecutive quarters of double-digit growth.
- The company continues to expand its digital and physical presence, enhancing customer engagement and operational efficiency.
Analyst Ratings:
- Analysts have a consensus **"Moderate Buy" rating** on NYSE:ANF , with a median price target of **$190**, suggesting upside potential.
- Optimistic price targets range up to $250, reflecting confidence in NYSE:ANF ’s ability to sustain its growth trajectory.
Risk/Reward Analysis:
- The stop-loss at **$110.18** limits downside risk to approximately **27%** from the entry point.
- Take-profit targets at **$205.94** and **$291.21** offer potential upside of **36%** and **92%**, respectively, creating a favourable risk-reward scenario.
Conclusion:
NYSE:ANF continues to demonstrate strong financial performance and positive market sentiment, supported by robust revenue growth and strategic initiatives. This trade setup balances calculated risks with the potential for significant returns.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, Just Ride the Wave!
*Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.*
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 index demonstrated a consistent and measured sleepwalking upward trajectory towards our target of Outer Index Rally 6123, with potential for further advancement to the subsequent Outer Index Rally level at 6233. This notable ascent toward the target of 6123 is anticipated to result in a pullback to the Mean Support level of 6049, thereby facilitating the next phase of the bullish trend.
S&P 500 - Is the Market Getting Too Comfortable?Is the Market Getting Too Comfortable?
Section 1: Signs of Complacency
Our Volatility Valuation Index (VVI) has dipped to the lower end of its range—an area that
often signals complacency.
Historically, this level tends to align with market tops, so it’s worth paying close attention.
Could this be a warning sign for the S&P 500?
Section 2: About the VVI
The VVI measures extremes in volatility, helping to identify potential market turning points.
It’s trend-agnostic, meaning high volatility can signal both tops and bottoms.
For equities, high readings typically align with bottoms, while low readings often flag tops.
That said, it works best when paired with other indicators like trend and momentum.
Section 3: What’s Next?
Tomorrow, we’ll dive into momentum signals on the S&P 500 to see what’s really happening under the hood. Stay tuned!
S&P 500 Macro Outlook (2022-2024 Forecasted Targets/Tops/Bottom)3950-4K micro-target followed by the melt-up rally.
Linear top: 5325
Log top: (Separate post): 6000
Extension linear top: 6500
60-80% Bear Market follows;
Target 1: 2150
Target 2: 1555
End of Bear Market: Q3/Q4 2024 due to QE5/6, aka Infinite easing.
P.S. Disregard target 3 on the chart; Depression isn't expected this decade.
Weekly Forex Forecast: SP500, NAS, DOW ... Wait For BUYS!The equity markets closed the month with all time highs. Next week, there should be some
carry over. The week may open bearish in the short term, but I believe longs will be the ticket to ride!
* I will consider longs in SP500 and DOW before buying the NASDAQ, as it is weaker. There, I would take valid sells before I short SP500 or DOW JONES.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-05 : Harami-Inside DayToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay rather flat and likely close within yesterday's body range.
I'm not expecting a lot of price action today - although we could see a high/low range outside of yesterday's body range.
Gold and Silver are struggling to find support and rally from recent lows. The US Dollar's move back below 106 is positive for metals. But I urge traders to stay very cautious until they see a clear bullish breakaway pattern in metals.
I've been trying to tell everyone for 3+ weeks that the markets typically go a bit WONKY after a big election process. This year, Trump's victory was a big surprise for many, and I'm confident traders are attempting to avoid risks by staying away from making big moves before the end of the year.
Bitcoin fell back below $100k again and I believe BTCUSD could be setting up a very large Excess Phase Peak pattern. If I'm correct, we may see Bitcoin fall to GETTEX:82K (possibly $72k) as the EPP pattern continues.
It is very early in this EPP price structure, but ultimately, the EPP either continues to play out or invalidates. So, one way or another, we will either see a move down to GETTEX:82K (or below) or a rally move breaking above the $103k highs.
Again, I expect a very flat day for the SPY/QQQ. Stay safe.
Get some.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 6117 (Wave “3”).Dear Colleagues, I believe that price will still make new highs. I expect that the wave “5” of the middle order is not yet complete.
Perhaps the price will test the 50% Fibonacci level of 5847 and then start an upward movement to the resistance area of 6117 (Wave “3”).
This correction may not happen, then it would mean that the price continued the wave “3”.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 23.6% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 6,083.37
1st Support: 6,027.94
1st Resistance: 6,107.21
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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The Anomaly Price Event May Hit Before December 31Just before the US Presidential Elections, I published a detailed research report suggesting the markets may move into a low-liquidity event that could be very dangerous for traders.
My Adaptive Dynamic Learning (AI) predictive modeling system highlighted a range of price volatility just after the election showing a very real downward price event. If this event takes place, we may see the SPY/QQQ fall more than 5.5% while other sectors may fall more than 10.5%.
What is interesting is the post-election rally pushed some SPDR sectors above the upper ADL predicted price range. This means price is now very overbought in terms of expected levels.
Any reversion could prompt a very solid downward price move and catch many traders by surprise.
I'm watching my Crash Index and the XLF & XLRE sectors for any signs of a breakdown.
I suggest all of you move to protect capital as we move into the end of 2024 and prepare for what may become a very violent and volatile Anomaly Price Event.
Get some.
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S&P 500: Riding the Wave of OptimismS&P 500: Riding the Wave of Optimism Amid Economic and Political Dynamics
The S&P 500 continues its upward trajectory, buoyed by tech-driven gains and investor optimism, even as mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties loom. Here’s a deep dive into the current market landscape and what it means for the benchmark index.
---
Economic and Market Drivers
Tech-Led Rally and AI Optimism
The S&P 500's performance has been significantly influenced by gains in the technology and AI sectors. Investors are betting on the transformative potential of AI, propelling stocks like Microsoft and Meta to the forefront. However, regulatory scrutiny, such as the FTC's probe into Microsoft's AI software sales, introduces a layer of uncertainty.
Resilient Labor Market
While the Challenger Layoffs report showed a slight uptick, JOLTS job openings rose to 7.744 million in October, indicating a stable labor market. This balance supports the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy, as Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the economy’s strength and gradual progress in reducing inflation.
Mixed Economic Indicators
- ISM Services PMI** fell to 52.1, below expectations of 55.7, suggesting a slowdown in service sector growth.
- Durable goods orders increased by 0.3%, meeting expectations and reinforcing the narrative of economic stability.
- Construction spending rose 0.4%, signaling robust investment activity.
These data points reflect a U.S. economy navigating challenges while avoiding a hard landing—a scenario that fuels investor confidence.
---
Federal Reserve Policy: A Turning Point?
Fed officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, have hinted at the potential for a December rate cut, with futures markets pricing in a 74% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction. Inflation is expected to ease gradually, targeting 2% by 2025, but progress remains uneven. The Fed’s Beige Book also reported modest price increases and slightly higher economic activity, aligning with the central bank’s cautious optimism.
This pivot towards monetary easing, coupled with balanced labor market conditions, is a positive signal for equities, particularly growth-oriented sectors.
---
Corporate Highlights
- Salesforce reported Q3 revenue of $9.44 billion, exceeding estimates, but missed on adjusted EPS, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.
- Meta (Facebook) is aligning its strategies with evolving political landscapes, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg seeks to navigate regulatory and policy shifts.
- Microsoft faces FTC scrutiny, a development that underscores the increasing regulatory challenges in the tech sector.
Despite these challenges, corporate earnings have largely supported market valuations, adding another layer of support for the S&P 500.
---
Seasonality and Sentiment
December has historically been a strong month for the S&P 500, driven by:
- Holiday-driven consumer spending.
- Portfolio rebalancing.
- End-of-year tax considerations.
This seasonal strength aligns with the **Fear & Greed Index**, which currently stands at 56, indicating a greed-driven sentiment. Such sentiment often paves the way for further market upside, as investors are inclined to take on more risk in anticipation of future gains.
---
Outlook: Optimism with Caution
The S&P 500’s upward momentum is underpinned by strong tech-sector performance, resilient economic data, and seasonal tailwinds. However, challenges such as geopolitical risks, regulatory scrutiny, and uneven progress in disinflation could temper gains.
With the Federal Reserve signaling flexibility and potential rate cuts, the market sentiment remains favorable. However, investors should remain vigilant, monitoring corporate earnings, economic releases, and geopolitical developments.
In the near term, the S&P 500 appears poised to end the year on a strong note, but the path forward will depend on a delicate balance of economic stability and investor confidence.
Es Morning Update Dec 5thIn yesterday’s plan, I gave 3 key targets: 6074, 6082, and 6102. We hit 6102.25 as the high of the day. At this stage, there’s nothing to do but hold runners until a dip presents itself.
As of now: 6088 (weak) acts as support. Holding above keeps 6104, 6116-18, and 6130+ in play. If 6088 fails, expect a dip to 6080, with a 6066 backtest next.