Stock market correction in 2025??I personally believe we'll see a stock market correction in 2025.
1. 30yr treasury yield going higher while FED cut interest rates. Similar situation in 1970s and 1980s where we say a 50% correction in just 2 years in the 1970s (can't remember exact dates)
2. US 10yr/3m yield curve has turned positive. Last times it's done this has been 2000, 2008 and 2020. I'm guessing you know what happened each of those times.
3. Institutional investors increasing long contracts in the yen. The Japanese Yen is a 'risk-off' investment and investors tend to favour it when they don't have much faith in the stock market.
4. US have a volatile president in Trump. The power also seems to be getting to his head a bit - he disagrees with Fed Chair Powell over interest rates, despite not being as educated in economics. He has a lot of power right now and I don't think he will be able to stop a potential market crash for the first year or 2 of his presidency.
5. Back-to-back 20%+ years from the S&P500, could be due a pullback.
These are some reasons, I have some more but I don't want to be sat here writing all day.
Important to note that if you're a long term investor it's best to just ignore this. "Time in the markets beats timing the markets" as they say.
But if you're a day trader I wouldn't be taking many long positions on stocks this year. Could be better to start looking at opportunities in the currency markets.
Then again - you don't have to trust me. This isn't financial advice, just my opinion.
S&P 500 (SPX500)
S&P 500 struggles at the 1/4 Warning LineLet's not make trading harder than it is.
All we can do is project - or read the Coffee ground.
I'll prefer to use my projections with the Medianlines, using the Fork as my main tool.
The nice part with this is, that I can relay on a proven framework with rules.
Adding some risk & money management to it and the soup is ready to enjoy.
So, I follow the same process with the ES.
I see that price got rejected at the 1/4 line of the WL (Warning Line), and that price missed it to reach the WL1, which is a HAGOPIAN. That makes me lean on the rule, that price will go farther in the opposite direction than from where price came from (U-MLH).
I outlined the scenarios with the arrows what to expect in the next weeks.
Personally I'm overall very, very bearish, and I see the move to the Centerline coming. But this is just my opinion.
Bullish Continuation for SPX500After Trading in a small consolidation SPX looks to pick back up on its Bullish movement.
- Price has broken and now retesting bearish trendline.
-Price swept the lows of the liquidity and is now retesting the previous resistance of the zone.
The Retest is taking place at the H1 lvl resistance 5,903
- Rejection wick with an inside bar pattern
- There's a weak bullish divergence with the previous low.
-Wait for your entry signal
SPX500 H4 | Sideways price actionSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 6,004.61 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 6,060.00 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 5,825.91 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-7-25 : Counter Trend BreakawayToday's pattern suggests the markets will move upward (counter-trend) in an attempt to move into the RALLY, RALLY, RALLY phase closing out this week's price action.
I suggest traders prepare for what may become a fairly explosive upward trend over the next few days - but stay fairly cautious as unexpected news may derail price trends a bit.
We are still moving into the early 2025 liquidity flood - where traders who pulled capital away from risks in late 2024 are starting to move back into the markets. We are also moving into Q4:2024 earnings data (in about a week or so). So there are still lots of opportunities for big trends.
I'm watching to see if the markets attempt to move to new All-Time Highs again - which I believe is a highly probable outcome.
If my research is correct, we are going to move into that RALLY, RALLY, RALLY phase very cleanly today and tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are moving higher again - which is great to see. Today is a RALLY day on my Gold Cycle Patterns. Could be a great opportunity for skilled traders in Metals this week.
Bitcoin has reached that DUAL FLAGGING zone. In other words, stay cautious at this point.
Volatility will likely increase for Bitcoin and I believe the most likely outcome will be to attempt to move back downward after reaching this dual flagging zone. We'll see what happens next.
Remember, we are just starting 2025, so you have lots of time to try to identify opportunities throughout the year. Your goal as a trader is to find the best opportunities to BOOK PROFITS. The more you are able to BOOK PROFITS, the more likely you are to GROW YOUR ACCOUNT.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPX JAN 7 2025| READ DESCRIPTION |Here we need to understand the power of money & risk management.If it goes to 6200 from here then our RR is just 1: 1.08 .
The RR is the heart & soul of a trade. One should be discplined enought to understand this & if you are not getting minimum 1:2 & I have used the word minimum, then there is no point taking that particular trade.
You need to think what if a trade goes against me?
Always be open to both sides understanding the RR
If you are not following RR & rules then this business will eat all your wealth
You mind is actually the most powerful thing in the world.
2025-01-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Close does not help anyone. Below daily ema but above 6k. Same reasoning as for dax. We could do a retest or higher before we go lower again. The lower high 6107 will probably hold. Bears want to trade down to 5930 or lower again. Clear trading range price action where the legs inside look very strong, just to crumble shortly after. We are in a very broad bear channel/triangle until bulls can get above 6107 again.
comment: 3 legs up are done and I think we have a bigger two-legged correction down now. Bulls stopped the selling above the breakout price 5996 and it’s likely that we get a retest 6050+ before we can go lower. For all shorts the stop is 6108 and for bulls most likely 5797 for now.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5900 - 6100
bull case: Bulls want to break above 6107 and make new highs again. They had 3 very strong legs up and as long as the bull channel is not broken, they will look for longs near the lower trend line. Their next target is consecutive bull bars above the bear trend line that runs through 6050 and then a retest of 6100. I expect most bulls to have a stop below 5980.
Invalidation is below 5980.
bear case : Bears need to keep the bear trend line alive and the market below 6040/6050. If they manage that, we have made another lower high and odds will heavily favor the bears to trade back down to at least 5930.
Invalidation is above 6107.
short term: Neutral 6000 - 6050. Bearish below 6000 for 5930 or lower. Bullish above 6075 for 6100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade : No but shorts with stop 6108 are reasonable.
trade of the day: Buying EU open. Bears just stepped aside and we melted higher.
Trust Stamp ($IDAI): Strategic Developments Signal Potential UpsI spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $6.71
- **Stop-Loss:** $5.03
- **Take-Profit Targets:**
- **TP1:** $18.83
- **TP2:** $34.58
Company Overview:
Trust Stamp ( NASDAQ:IDAI ) is a global provider of AI-powered identity solutions, specializing in biometric and cryptographic technologies for secure identity verification across various sectors, including finance, government, and healthcare.
Recent Developments:
- Strategic Partnership: On January 6, 2025, Trust Stamp announced a strategic transaction with Qenta Inc., resulting in a 10% ownership stake in QID Technologies LLC, a newly formed subsidiary. This partnership is projected to generate up to $4.3 million in revenue receipts in 2025, enhancing Trust Stamp's market position and revenue streams.
- Reverse Stock Split: Effective January 6, 2025, Trust Stamp implemented a 1-for-15 reverse stock split to meet NASDAQ's minimum bid price requirement. This move is expected to attract institutional investors by stabilizing the stock price and reducing volatility.
Technical Analysis:
- Current Price: $7.42
- Support Levels: Immediate support at $6.50, aligning closely with the activated entry price of $6.71.
- Resistance Levels: Initial resistance at $10.00, with significant resistance near TP1 at $18.83.
- Moving Averages: The 50-day EMA is trending upwards, indicating positive momentum.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 65, suggesting moderate bullish momentum with room for further upside.
Market Sentiment:
The recent strategic partnership and corporate restructuring have positively influenced market sentiment, with increased trading volumes and investor interest.
Risk Management:
The stop-loss at $5.03 limits downside risk to approximately 25% from the entry point. TP1 offers a potential gain of 180%, while TP2 presents an opportunity for a 415% return, indicating a favourable risk-to-reward ratio for this trade setup.
Conclusion:
Trust Stamp’s innovative identity solutions and recent partnerships position it for significant growth.
Awaiting a pullback to $6.71 for an optimal entry point into this promising trade setup.
Strict adherence to stop-loss and take-profit levels is essential to managing risk and volatility.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, We’ll Brave It All!
Breaking: $SPX6900 ($SPX) Surges 65% in 3 DaysThe crypto space is buzzing with excitement as SPX6900 ( SP:SPX ), an Ethereum-based memecoin, records an impressive 65% surge over the past three days, including a 17% gain today. This meteoric rise has captured the attention of investors and analysts alike.
From Humble Beginnings to Massive Gains
Launched in 2023 at just $0.00067, SP:SPX has grown into a standout token, now trading at $1.57—a jaw-dropping return for early adopters. This memecoin, inspired by advanced blockchain cryptography, is positioning itself as more than just a digital asset, with potential applications in scientific and financial realms.
Notably, SP:SPX boasts a 20,000-strong community, with prominent figures like Murad acting as moderators. The token’s vision? To one day rival the traditional S&P 500 index, which has a market cap in the trillions.
Technical Outlook
Currently, SP:SPX is trading within a bullish pattern and is up 17% on the day. However, with an RSI of 85, the token appears to be overbought, signaling the possibility of a short-term correction.
Key Stats at a Glance:
- Market Cap: $1.45 Billion (Ranked #99 on CoinGecko)
- 24h Trading Volume: $117.37 Million (+160% in 24 hours)
- All-Time High: $1.57 (January 6, 2025)
- All-Time Low: $0.001318 (February 2024)
- Circulating Supply: 930 Million SPX tokens
The Movement Behind SPX6900
SPX6900 represents a paradigm shift in finance. With the bold claim that “6900 is more than 500,” it challenges traditional benchmarks like the S&P 500 and symbolizes the complexity and vastness of modern interconnected financial systems.
This token isn't just about numbers; it’s about rethinking dominance and relevance in global markets. The SPX6900 movement calls for a broader, more inclusive representation of financial growth and innovation.
Where to Buy $SPX6900
SPX6900 is available on top exchanges like:
- Bybit (Most active pair: SPX/USDT)
- Gate.io
- KuCoin
Final Thoughts
$SPX6900 has emerged as a force to be reckoned with, fueled by its strong community, bold vision, and impressive growth trajectory. Whether it can sustain this momentum remains to be seen, but for now, it’s clear that SPX6900 is making waves in the crypto world.
Join the SPX6900 revolution today and witness the future of finance unfold!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-6-25 : Inside BreakawayToday's pre-market RIPPER RALLY somewhat invalidates the "Inside" part of any Inside Breakaway pattern. But, this rally mode in price validates what I've been suggesting for more than 3 weeks now - that the markets would settle after the new year and start to move into a rally phase before the Presidential Inauguration event.
Today's rally in metals and the SPY/QQQ suggests traders are eager to see the Q4:2024 results and are starting to PILE INTO the US equities markets after a very volatile end to 2024.
Even though 2024 was a banner year for the SPY (up over 20% YoY), December was very difficult for many traders. Aren't you glad you listened to my advice and moved to 80-85% CASH back on October 25 and avoided all this chaos?
As we start this week, I want to warn you that trades will be fairly quick in terms of "making up for lost ground". I believe quite a bit of the market's movement will take place overnight and pre-market. We'll still see some trending throughout the US regular trading session - but I believe the bigger moves will take place after hours in most cases.
Remember, foreign capital will be pouring into US assets for safety and security over the next 3-6+ months.
Gold and Silver will act as a hedge against perceived risks and I believe Gold will make a rally attempt above $2800 in early 2025. Silver.. Well, Silver is about to see an explosive move to levels above $35 in my opinion.
Bitcoin is still struggling to break away from this sideways price range. I believe the real struggle will materialize in about 24 to 48 hours as Bitcoin reaches an overlapping consolidation phase (almost like a Flag Apex). This is where I believe big volatility will hit for Bitcoin.
Get some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BIG BIG weekI think 7 FED speakers,
A lot of tension in the markets, tops mean polarisation, considering reflexivity theory extreme volatility will ensue.
A lot of people might think the -0.786 ATH we got before the holidays is the top. I think they are mistaken as seen in the analysis below.
There is still legroom for higher, this is a big bet on my part.
I have a few contracts on the mag7 (GOOGL, TSLA and META) focusing on GOOGL since they seem to be in the same headwind as S&P
Let's see how this plays out
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Neutral. Much less bearish than dax because the pull-back above 6100 was so strong. We are right below the most important price 6000 and with it the bear case lives or dies. If bulls can go above again and test the bear trend line around 6050, the odds for the bears become really bad. Much more likely outcome then is more sideways inside the triangle. If bears do a strong move below 5900 on Monday/Tuesday, they took control again and odds are decent for the big second leg down. It’s 50/50 for me right now who wins this.
comment: 6000 is the big round number for both sides to close above or below. The longer bears can close below, the better the odds for a second leg down. I do think bear’s fumbled their chance for now a bit with the strong bullish close on Friday. If bulls continue higher on Monday we will likely test the bear trend line 6040ish again and it will be interesting to see if big sellers come around again. If the bears would have been stronger, this second bounce at 5870 wouldn’t have happened. The current triangle could continue for couple more days.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 5870 - 6100
bull case: Strong close on Friday and it’s reasonable to expect more upside on Monday. The current descending triangle pattern has room for a couple of more days. Bulls who scaled into longs with a stop below the October and November low 5797 are making money and bears would need to build bigger selling pressure below 5860 for them to cover. I don’t think many bulls will hold long on Monday if we fail to trade above 6000.
Invalidation is below 5860.
bear case: Bears are not doing enough below 5800. Bulls printed a decent double bottom to buy. Now they need to stop the market from finding acceptance above 6000 again. If we stay below 6000 and go more sideways between 5860-6000, I do think bears are favored for the second leg down because scaling in bulls can’t hold long if we break below 5860 and late bulls who got trapped above 6100 will likely also give up on a bigger pull-back above 6100 again.
Invalidation is above 6100.
short term: Neutral between 5900 - 6000, bullish above 6000 for at least 6040 and bearish only below 5860. Shorts near 6050 are great r:r wise and I will take them for a swing.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
Weekly Trading Plan: ES Futures 1/6/2025Market Context
The ES Futures market is currently balancing, with a defined pivot point at 5964. This plan focuses on trading around the pivot while targeting key upside and downside levels. We’ll also prepare for potential failure scenarios where the market tests beyond key levels but fails to sustain momentum.
Key Levels
Pivot (Midpoint): 5964
Upside Targets:
6056
6107
6146
Downside Targets:
5875
5819
5785
🧑💼 Strategy Overview
Objective: Trade within the balancing market, utilizing the pivot (5964) as a directional bias. Prepare for possible breakout failures near key levels.
Risk Management: Place stops just outside extreme levels to mitigate breakout traps.
Execution Plan: Execute trades systematically based on price action confirmation near pivot and target levels.
Trade Execution Plan
Pivot Zone: 5964
If price holds above 5964: Look for long opportunities targeting upside levels.
If price breaks and holds below 5964: Look for short opportunities targeting downside levels.
Upside Trade Setup:
Entry: Enter long positions near 5964 on confirmation of support (e.g., bullish candlesticks or strong buying momentum).
Targets:
6056
6107
6146
Downside Trade Setup:
Entry: Enter short positions near 5964 on confirmation of resistance (e.g., bearish candlesticks or strong selling momentum).
Targets:
5875
5819
5785
⚡ Failure Scenarios
Looking Above 6146 and Failing:
Scenario: The market breaches 6146, signaling a breakout, but quickly reverses back below.
Trade Opportunity: Short the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candles, increasing sell volume).
Targets:
6107 → 6056 → Pivot (5964)
Stop Loss: Place stops just above 6146 to avoid prolonged breakout risk.
Looking Below 5785 and Failing:
Scenario: The market breaches 5785, signaling a downside breakout, but quickly reverses back above.
Trade Opportunity: Long the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candles, increasing buy volume).
Targets:
5819 → 5875 → Pivot (5964)
Stop Loss: Place stops just below 5785 to avoid prolonged breakout risk.
Fake Breakout from Pivot (5964):
Scenario: The market shows a breakout from 5964 but fails to sustain momentum and reverses.
Trade Opportunity: Trade in the direction of the failed breakout, targeting the opposite side of the range.
Stop Loss: Place stops just outside the failed breakout level.
💡 Risk Management
Position Sizing: Risk no more than 1-2% of your account balance per trade. Tighten stops to minimize loss in failure scenarios.
Break-Even Adjustments: Move stops to break-even once the first target is achieved.
📈 Trade Monitoring
Order Flow Analysis: Monitor volume and order flow near key levels for signs of breakout or failure.
Market Context Update: Adapt the plan if the market establishes a new range or breaks out of balance.
💰 Exit Plan
Take profits incrementally at each target.
Exit immediately if the market signals sustained breakout momentum beyond extreme levels.
🔔 Stay disciplined and adapt to price action!
#ESFutures #WeeklyPlan #BalanceZone #RiskManagement
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this abbreviated trading week, the S&P 500 made a wild ride pullback against a very significant Mean Sup 5870. Subsequently, it rallied robustly, approaching our newly established target of Key Resistance at 5972. This upward movement is anticipated to stabilize or continue to rise, sustaining the bullish trend. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that encountering subsequent resistance may trigger a substantial pullback, potentially leading to the Mean Support at 5870, which remains a plausible scenario.
Phathom Pharmaceuticals ($PHAT ): High-Growth Potential I spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
Phathom Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ:PHAT ): High-Growth Potential in Biopharmaceuticals
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $7.53 (Activated)
- Stop-Loss: $5.67
- Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: $22.00
- TP2: $41.80
Company Overview:
Phathom Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ:PHAT ) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel treatments for gastrointestinal diseases. With a pipeline of promising drugs, NASDAQ:PHAT is gaining attention as a high-potential player in its sector.
Recent FDA approvals and upcoming clinical trial data releases have positioned the company for significant upside. These developments could catalyze rapid stock price appreciation in the coming months.
Earnings Reports:
- In its most recent quarter, NASDAQ:PHAT reported revenues of $12.3 million, driven by early sales from its newly approved drug for acid-related conditions.
- Operating losses narrowed compared to previous quarters, reflecting disciplined cost management.
Valuation Metrics:
- Market Cap: $500 million, indicating a small-cap stock with room for growth.
- Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: 4.1, suggesting moderate undervaluation compared to industry averages.
Market News:
- Phathom recently announced successful Phase III trial results for another key drug in its pipeline, expected to drive future revenue growth.
- The company is expanding its distribution partnerships, aiming to broaden its market reach.
Technical Analysis (Daily Timeframe):
- Current Price: $7.53
- Moving Averages:
- 50-Day SMA: $6.80
- 200-Day SMA: $7.00
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 55, signalling neutral momentum with room for further upside.
- Support and Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Support: $7.00
- Resistance: $9.00
The stock has activated the entry at $7.53, with strong support at $7.00. A breakout above $9.00 could set the stage for rapid movement toward TP1 at $22.00 and TP2 at $41.80.
Risk Management:
The stop-loss at $5.67 limits downside risk to approximately 25%, while the first take-profit target at $22.00 offers a **192% gain**, and TP2 provides a massive **455% return**, making this an attractive trade for long-term investors.
Key Takeaways:
- NASDAQ:PHAT is a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in the biotech sector, driven by a strong pipeline and recent FDA approvals.
- The trade setup offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio, aligning with the stock’s growth potential.
- Ideal for investors seeking exposure to a rapidly developing biopharmaceutical company.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, We’ll Brave It All!
LGVN(Longeveron Inc.): Stock Trade Analysis - 4xLGVN: Stock Trade Analysis and Sentiment Overview
I spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
Market Overview (Current Price $1.86):
- LGVN has activated the buy entry at $2.13, showing bullish potential as speculative interest grows around small-cap biotech stocks.
- Sentiment in the healthcare and biotech sector has improved recently due to increased funding and positive market momentum.
Technical Overview:
- Support Levels: $1.50, $0.78 (Stop-Loss)
- Resistance Levels: $5.00 (TP1), $8.50 (TP2)
- Indicators: RSI on the daily chart indicates the stock is approaching a neutral zone after prior selling pressure. MACD shows early bullish divergence, aligning with potential upward movement.
Fundamental Catalysts:
- Company-Specific News: LGVN has been gaining attention for advancements in clinical trials, which could drive investor interest.
- Sector Trends: The biotech sector has been experiencing renewed speculative interest due to an influx of venture funding and increased M&A activity.
- Market News: Broader market recovery trends in small-cap stocks favour upside potential for LGVN.
Scenario Planning:
- Bullish Scenario: Positive momentum could drive the stock price to TP1 ($5.00), with the potential for a longer-term move to TP2 ($8.50).
- Risk Scenario: Negative trial outcomes or broader market weakness could test the SL at $0.78.
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $2.13 (Activated)
- Stop-Loss: $0.78
- Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: $5.00
- TP2: $8.50
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, We’ll Brave It All!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade: Learning A or B Trading StylesYesterday, after the GDP Now data hit, I received a number of messages related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work in comparison to big news data (like GDP, JOBS, PMI, & Others).
Let me try to explain one simple thing to all of you.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are based on GANN/Fibonacci Time/Price cycles. They DO NOT correlate or predict price movement based on NEWS EVENTS or other extraneous data.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are, in essence, the core price expectations related to time/price cycles WITHOUT EXTERNAL NEWS EVENTS.
They represent what price is likely to do without any big news, economic data, or critical major event taking place to disrupt the Cycle Pattern.
So, it is important for traders to understand what I call the "A or B" type of trade setup.
Price is always attempting to reach new highs or new lows - ALWAYS.
Failure to reach new highs means price must roll downward and attempt to reach new lows. Failure to reach new lows means price must roll upward and attempt to reach new highs.
It is that simple.
Price is always attempting to break above previous critical highs or lows - ALWAYS.
Thus, once you understand this as a basis of price structure/movement, then you can begin to apply more advanced patterns (Fibonacci Price Theory, Excess Phase Peak Pattern, Others) as an additional layer to price structure in an attempt to understand how price dictates all trending/movement.
Now, one must also understand when price attempts to break levels (high or low), it can REJECT at those level (after breaking to new highs or lows). This is what I call a "Washout" pattern.
Rejection happens when a new low or high is reached, but the price FAILS to continue to trend in that direction. For example, if price were to reach a new higher high, then reject, this would be an example that strong resistance exists at/near the previous high level - causing price to FAIL to maintain that new high price level. Thus, I would expect price to move downward after REJECTING at the new high levels (see above).
The reason I'm trying to teach you these price concepts is because I want you to learn to make better decisions - not learn to just "follow along". You have to learn to understand price and understand how price moves related to opportunities.
That is what trading is all about - anticipating price moves because of what you are able to discover on a price chart.
Get some. Happy Friday.
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Critical Turning Point for the S&P 500: Bullish or Bearish?Happy New Year, everyone! 🎉 I hope you all had an amazing start to 2025. Let’s dive into the S&P 500 chart because it’s showing some critical patterns that could define the market's direction moving forward.
The S&P 500 has now broken below the Rising Channel, confirming a bearish breakdown from the long-term uptrend. This move adds to the bearish pressure initiated by the previously formed Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern.
The breakdown of the Rising Channel, combined with the confirmed H&S pattern, suggests a significant shift in market sentiment. With the price also sitting below the 50 EMA, the bears appear to have the upper hand.
1. Rising Channel Breakdown : After respecting the channel boundaries for months, the price has decisively fallen through the lower boundary, signaling the uptrend is over.
2. H&S Pattern Confirmation : The neckline has been broken, further validating this bearish reversal structure.
3. 50 EMA Resistance : The inability to reclaim the 50 EMA solidifies the bearish momentum.
Targets to Watch
* 5,687.33: The next immediate support level where price could pause or consolidate.
* 5,600.45: A breach of 5,687.33 could send the price toward this stronger support zone.
* 5,119.26 (Channel Projection): If bearish momentum accelerates, the longer-term target aligns with the channel's projected downside.
What’s Next?
With the Rising Channel broken, the market’s bullish structure has collapsed, leaving traders watching key support levels to assess the depth of the pullback. Bulls will need to reclaim the 50 EMA and push the price back into the channel to regain control, but this seems unlikely in the short term.
The market now leans bearish, and the next few sessions could confirm whether this breakdown leads to a larger correction or stabilizes near support.
Let me know your thoughts and how you plan to approach this setup. Wishing you all a successful and profitable trading year ahead! 🚀
#SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #BearishBreakdown #RisingChannel #HeadAndShoulders
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-2-25 : Inside Pause PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will stall a bit after the overnight reversion move.
If you were following my research, you already knew I was expecting the markets to rally a bit over the past 3-5 trading days. But that didn't happen as the low liquidity end of year trading prompted another downside price event.
In my opinion, this was all due to a lack of market liquidity. When there is very low liquidity, the MMs can move price more easily as the number of buyers and sellers drops (creating a wider price spread). It is also the type of market environment where FLASH CRASH types of events can take place.
Now that we are into early 2025, liquidity will deepen (more active traders) and this will result in a possible reversion event (upward) in price leading to the Inauguration event (IMO).
Just like I've been suggesting over the past 2-3+ weeks.
Gold and Silver are recovering nicely. I believe Gold and Silver will move back towards their recent highs over the next 30+ days.
Bitcoin is still struggling just below $100k, but I believe the ultimate move for Bitcoin will be a retracement to the downside before finding support near $72k and then starting a bigger rally above $120k.
In 2025, I've made a commitment to do more to help more traders. I'm working on new TIMING tools to assist in developing better analysis for everyone. If this research/work plays out well, I'll try to make these new tools available to everyone.
Remember, trading is all about managing capital, expectations, and risks. If you are still struggling with your trading - follow my research and learn how to time/execute better trades.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trend OutlookS&P 500 Analysis
The price is currently trading with bullish momentum, reaching 5,969. A breakout above 5,969 is likely to push the price towards 6,022.
On the other hand, if the price remains stable below 5,969, it will fluctuate between 5,969 and 5,935. A break and a 4-hour candle closing below 5,935 will support a bearish trend, targeting 5,893 and 5,863.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5935
Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5905, 5863, 5790
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Stability: Maintained below 5,969
Bullish Trend: Confirmed by a breakout above 5,969