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S&P 500 (SPX500)

SP500: Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025 The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, and other major indices are poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price lows from April 7, 2025, and possibly lower (S&P 500: ~4,802.20, Dow Jones: ~36,611.78, Nikkei: ~30,340.50). This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and pervasive bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy · The rally in indices on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism surrounding a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (a 90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence may be waning due to a lack of tangible progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: Recent reports highlight conflicting statements from the Trump administration, with earlier promises of new trade deals (e.g., a U.K. deal on May 8) followed by uncertainty. A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks yield no positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates rhetoric (e.g., reinstating higher tariffs), markets could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 15% drop in the S&P 500. · Trade war fears disproportionately impact export-heavy indices like the Nikkei, which is sensitive to yen appreciation and U.S.-China tensions, and the Dow Jones, with its significant exposure to multinational corporations. A breakdown in negotiations could drive indices toward the April 7 lows as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data · CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, reported inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. While initially viewed as positive, markets may have anticipated an even lower figure to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. The modest S&P 500 gain (+0.7%) and Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggest investor skepticism about further inflation cooling. · Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is a pivotal event. If the PPI indicates persistent wholesale inflation—potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures—it could signal rising consumer prices ahead, diminishing hopes for Fed policy easing and triggering a sell-off. A higher-than-expected PPI could echo the market’s reaction to mixed economic data in early April, when GDP contraction fears pushed indices lower. · Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, 2025, likely showed continued weakness (April’s reading was 52.2, a multi-year low). If the May figure, reported yesterday, declined further, it could amplify concerns about reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting corporate earnings and pushing indices downward. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy · On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted heightened economic risks, citing “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies. Markets are pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first cut expected in July. · Trigger for May 15: If today’s PPI data or other economic indicators (e.g., Initial Jobless Claims, also due at 8:30 AM ET) point to persistent inflation or economic weakness, expectations for rate cuts could fade, increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring equity valuations. This scenario would mirror April 7, when recession fears and tariff impacts drove the S&P 500 below 5,000. 2. Technical Analysis · The initial impulse move saw a decline of approximately -21.87%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude (marked on the chart). Currently, markets are aligned for a simultaneous decline across asset classes: oil, cryptocurrencies, and major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others. · Previous analysis concluded that this is a correction preceding a broader decline in indices, driven by trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and U.S. economic indicators. I believe a recession is already underway. Price Targets for S&P 500 Decline: ➖ Retest of the April 7, 2025, low: $4,803.00 ➖ Secondary target: $4,716.00 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors 3.1. Fragile Optimism Post-Rally · The S&P 500’s 22% rally from April lows and the Dow’s 15% recovery were driven by trade truce optimism and strength in technology stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Palantir). However, Bloomberg reported on May 14, 2025, that Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade war risks and fears of an economic slowdown. This fragility could lead to profit-taking today if negative news emerges. · The Dow’s weakness on May 14 (down 0.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain) highlights vulnerabilities in specific sectors (e.g., healthcare following UnitedHealth’s 18% drop), which could spread to broader markets. 3.2. Global Market Correlation · Asian markets, including the Nikkei, exhibited mixed performance on May 14, with China’s CSI 300 up slightly (+0.15%) and India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%. If Asian markets open lower on May 15 due to overnight U.S. declines or trade-related news, it could create a feedback loop, intensifying global selling pressure. 4. Mini Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A higher-than-expected PPI could signal persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and triggering a sell-off. Consensus anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could be bearish. Trade Talk Updates: Negative commentary from U.S. or Chinese officials (e.g., no deal reached in Geneva) could reignite trade war fears, mirroring the April 7 sell-off. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): An unexpected rise in claims (e.g., above 220,000 compared to the prior fmadd211,000) could signal labor market weakness, amplifying recession fears. 4.2. Global Scenario for S&P 500 · I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. · There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: 4.3. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SergioRichi
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-14 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ may attempt to stay somewhat elevated. The Carryover pattern is essentially a pattern saying, "expect more of the same type of trending today". I would suggest the SPY/QQQ are somewhat extended and may pause a bit today. I shared a chart I created back on March 23, 2025 that I found very interesting - showing a big rally in late-April/early-May. If that chart continues to be accurate - it suggests the markets may attempt a reversion move to the downside over the next 20-30+ days. Time will tell if my predictions play out accurately or not. Gold is moving into new BEARISH trending on the GOLD Cycle Patterns. After an extended consolidation phase in metals, this shift in the trend models was going to happen at some point. Now, we need to see if Gold/Silver can hold above recent support or not. Even though I believe Gold/Silver are poised for another big rally, the disruptions related to the global economy and tariffs seems to have taken some of wind out of the sails of the metals rally (for now). Bitcoin continues to lead the SPY/QQQ. Keep an eye on what BTCUSD does over the next 7-15+ days as I believe it will lead the US markets in trending (still). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
S&P 500 Index May Lose Upward MomentumS&P 500 Index May Lose Upward Momentum Yesterday’s inflation data release held no major surprises, as the actual Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in close to analysts’ forecasts. According to Forex Factory: → Annual CPI: actual = 2.3%, forecast = 2.4%, previous = 2.4%; → Monthly Core CPI: actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.3%, previous = 0.1%. Overall, stock indices rose yesterday, but according to media reports, this momentum may begin to slow in the near future: → UBS analysts downgraded their rating on US equities from “attractive” to “neutral” following the recovery from early April lows; → Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the US stock market rally could stall at current levels. In their view, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is likely to reach 5900 over the next three months. Technical Analysis of the E-Mini S&P 500 Chart The chart provides more reasons to suggest that the current pace of growth may begin to slow. Firstly, the index has entered a broad range between 5800 and 6120, where it spent a prolonged period during late 2024 and early 2025. This is a zone (highlighted in purple) where supply and demand previously reached a stable equilibrium — and similar balance could potentially emerge again. Secondly: → the slope of the current upward channel (marked in black) appears excessively steep; → the RSI indicator points to a divergence; → the psychological level of 6000 may act as resistance. Given the above, special attention should be paid to the scenario in which the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) forms a short-term correction before the end of the month. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
S&P 500 Index Most Bullish Signal In 15 YearsThis is why it is very clear, certain, that the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is set to grow in the coming months. Last week produced the highest volume session, on the bullish side, since April/May 2010, that's 15 years. Back then, when this signal showed up, this index went to grow for years non-stop. The SPX also produced the strongest weekly session in several decades, maybe the strongest week ever, and a bounce happened (support found) exactly at the 0.618 retracement Fib. This is all we need to know. When the bulls enter the market and do so with force, it is because the market is set to grow. The correction produced decline of 21%. This is pretty standard. The fact that the correction happened really fast, it means that it will also have a fast end. The low is in. The correction is over. The S&P 500 Index is set to grow. You can be certain. If you have any doubts, just ask the chart. Namaste.
SP:SPXLong
by MasterAnanda
9
$VIX: Where does VIX go from here? Happy Tuesday. A new week, new market KPIs to look at. Since the ‘Liberation Day’ VIX spike to 50 it has been a bear market for VIX and has been going down since then. Since then, the S&P had more than 11 day of positive close for the day. This is which we would expect when VIX is making new lower highs and lower lows. But where does the VIX go from here? It has been a remarkable trade to buy the indexes NASDAQ:QQQ and SP:SPX when the TVC:VIX is at or above 30. And then unwinding the trade when TVC:VIX touches 15. We have more than 10 days of positive closes in SP:SPX and the TVC:VIX is at 17. So we might have some more positive return in the near term. And then we rinse and repeat the same trade. Sell the indices when TVC:VIX touches 15 or lower band of this upward sloping channel. Verdict: Stay long until TVC:VIX @ 15. Unwind trade and then wait for TVC:VIX @ 30.
CBOE:VIX
by RabishankarBiswal
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-13 : Rally 111 PatternToday's RALLY pattern suggests we will see continued upward price trending in the SPY/QQQ (and possibly BTCUSD). I believe the continued positive news/announcements by the Trump administration is adding fuel for the current rally phase in the US markets. It is hard to ignore his tactics (like them or hate them). He is able to get things done in a way that many believe is disruptive. Still, from what I'm hearing, the Chinese trade deal is a very broad and advantageous deal that somewhat "resets" the disparity the US has experienced for the past 20+ years with China. Overall, that is a very positive advancement in global trade. Now, we'll have to see how the markets react to this news and is the hype is as good as the final trade deal. Overall, the US markets are still climbing up the current FLAGGING formation (still BULLISH). I see another Island (GAP) type of price move, which may prompt some consolidation - we'll see how things play out. Gold and Silver are setting up double/triple bottoms across support. BTCUSD is rallying higher within a similar FLAG formation to the SPY/QQQ. In my mind, the markets are back to nearly where they were prior to the tariffs and early breakdown in late-February 2025. This is the "make or break" time for the markets. Either the SPY continues higher and attempts to break above resistance - or it will start to fail over the next 5-10+ days and break downward. Buckle up... and GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
8
US Technology Stock Sector. The Underpressured PathThe recent reduction of tariffs under former President Trump's administration, while intended to ease trade tensions, has had several negative impacts on the U.S. technology sector, particularly in 2025. Increased Costs and Supply Chain Disruptions Despite some tariff reductions, the overall tariff environment remains highly volatile and complex. Many tariffs on tech products, especially those involving China, remain elevated-up on Chinese-made smartphones and other electronics. This has significantly increased manufacturing costs for U.S. tech companies reliant on global supply chains, particularly those sourcing components or assembling products in China, Vietnam, and other Asian countries. The tariffs have disrupted supply chains, forcing companies to reconsider production locations and logistics. Many firms are shifting production away from China to countries like India or Vietnam to mitigate tariff impacts, but this transition is costly and slow. Reshoring semiconductor manufacturing to the U.S. is challenging due to high labor costs and lack of skilled workforce, which means higher prices for end products like AI-enabled PCs and servers are expected. Suppressed Consumer Demand and Market Uncertainty Higher tariffs translate to increased retail prices for consumer electronics, reducing demand. For example, smartphone prices have risen, leading to weaker consumer sentiment and slower sales growth. This is particularly harmful in a sector where rapid innovation and high sales volume are critical for profitability and investment in new technologies. The uncertainty caused by fluctuating tariff policies has also led to delayed purchasing decisions by enterprises and consumers. Companies are hesitant to invest in new hardware or AI infrastructure due to unclear future costs and potential further tariff changes. This delay threatens technology roadmaps and weakens the U.S. tech sector's competitiveness globally. Impact on Innovation and Investment Tariffs have broader implications beyond immediate cost increases. By fragmenting markets and increasing operational costs, they reduce incentives for innovation. Companies face pressure to duplicate investments or abandon certain markets, which slows technological progress and reduces the U.S.'s ability to maintain leadership in emerging fields like AI and advanced semiconductors. The increased costs and uncertainty have also dampened investment in U.S. tech infrastructure. Although some companies like TSMC and Apple have announced U.S. manufacturing investments to offset tariff impacts, these efforts are insufficient to counterbalance the negative effects fully. The long lead times and capital intensity of building semiconductor fabs mean that reshoring will not provide a quick fix. Economic and Strategic Risks The tariffs contribute to broader economic risks, including potential recession, inflation, and job losses in the tech sector and related industries. CEOs across sectors have expressed concerns about the tariffs leading to economic downturns, higher prices, and layoffs. The tech sector, being highly globalized and interconnected, is particularly vulnerable to these macroeconomic shocks. Moreover, the tariffs strain U.S.-China relations, a critical factor in global tech supply chains and innovation ecosystems. Retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries further complicate market access for U.S. tech firms, reducing their export opportunities and competitiveness. Conclusion In summary, the recent tariff reductions under Trump's policy have not fully alleviated the negative impacts on the U.S. technology sector. Elevated tariffs continue to raise manufacturing costs, disrupt supply chains, and suppress consumer demand. The resulting uncertainty delays investments and innovation, while economic risks and strained international relations further threaten the sector's growth and global standing. These factors collectively undermine the competitiveness and future prospects of the U.S. tech industry. Technical challenge The main technical graph for US Technology Sector Futures CME_MINI:XAK1! (cost-adjusted modification) still remains under key resistance of 52-week SMA, which indicates on further possible bearish pressure. -- Best wishes @PandorraResearch Team
CME_MINI:XAK1!
by PandorraResearch
S&P500 Chasing a Retrace - Waiting for Equilibrium After Rally🗓️ Yesterday, I mentioned watching the S&P 500 for a retrace to find a potential long entry. But with the US-China tariff agreement announced, the market rallied hard 🚀—a clear positive for stocks. We didn’t get much of a pullback, and right now, I see the S&P 500 as overextended. I’m not looking to jump in at these premium levels. Instead, I’m waiting for a Fibonacci retrace back down into equilibrium on the current swing for a better opportunity. 👀 My plan: I’ll watch for a bearish break of structure to signal a retrace, then monitor price action as we approach support. If support holds and we get a bullish break of structure, that’s when I’ll look to get involved. 🔄 Just sharing my idea here—this isn’t financial advice! 📢
FX:SPX500
by fxtraderanthony
$SPY still bearish unless $584 and trendline break as resistanceI'll be the first to admit that the rally has gone further than I expected. That said, everything on the chart still looks like this is a bearish rally and not a new bull trend. Unless we can break the blue trend line and the strong overhead resistance between $581.63 and $583.57, I think the most likely scenario is we fall further and see one last leg down before we bottom. I think the bottom will come between the lower supports at $409 and $538. Again, invalidation of the bearish idea is a break and flip of the resistances above, the upside targets are on the chart as well. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
6
Celanese Corp | CE | Long at $39.64Celanese Corp is another chemical company (like Dow Inc) crushed by tariffs and economic headwinds. It's dropped -78% in one year.... However, this is a very strong company with strong credit market interest and no immediate liquidity crisis. From a technical analysis perspective, this... like in 2008 and 2020... is the time to gather shares given it has reached the "abysmal crash" levels based on my selected simple moving averages. In the past, recovery to new highs has taken 1-2 years. History doesn't always repeat, but fear is opportunity in the stock market. If negative news continues to reign, a dip into the high $20's isn't out of the question. If the company can squeak through 2025 and not continue to stack debt (debt/equity=2.43x), the growth opportunity into 2027-2028 looks promising. I'm keeping my targets into 2026 low, but this could be a good buy and hold for the right investor. Targets: $47.00 $54.75
NYSE:CELong
by WorthlessViews
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 4-12 : Rally In CountertrendIn today's video, I try to highlight the TREND features in the SPY CYcle Pattern data window for all of you to use. Yesterday, I received a comment from a friend/client asking about the strength in the markets compared to my expectations. My answer was simple. The SPY Cycle Pattern data window shows Short-Term (ST), Long-Term (LT) trending as well as the Daily/Weekly Bias trends. Traders should use these to determine the primary trend/direction of price action. Additionally, I try to add my own thoughts/context related to the market setup/structure. That is where I teach you about the EPP/Cradle patterns and more. Ideally, my analysis and the SPY Cycle Patterns align with the future price moves in a way that everyone can profit from the highest probability outcomes. There are times when news or outside forces drive the market trend beyond my expectations and, in some cases, beyond the SPY Cycle Pattern predictions. This recent Trump-Pump rally may be one of those cases. Either way, I continue to try to deliver the best technical analysis and research I can offer for followers. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
13
Cautious Optimism: What’s Next for the S&P 500US500 My Outlook for the Next Week: Given the relentless bullishness on the chart and the current backdrop, here’s how I see the next week playing out: Short-Term: The S&P 500 may continue to consolidate or experience mild pullbacks as investors digest recent gains and await fresh catalysts. Sector rotation could create choppiness, especially if tech underperforms. Catalysts: Watch for key economic data (inflation, employment, Fed commentary) and any major earnings surprises. These could trigger renewed momentum or a sharper correction. Risk/Reward: The risk of a sharp correction is rising, but the underlying trend remains bullish unless there’s a significant negative surprise. A shallow pullback or sideways action would be healthy and could set up the next leg higher if fundamentals remain intact. In summary: The S&P 500’s relentless bullishness is being tested by mixed sentiment and cautious analyst forecasts. Fundamentals are still supportive, but risks are rising. For the next week, expect consolidation or mild volatility, with the potential for renewed upside if economic data and earnings remain strong. Stay nimble, watch for sector rotation, and be prepared for both short-term pullbacks and longer-term opportunities. Not financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by fxtraderanthony
Weekly Market Forecast: Wait For BUYS! Stock Indices and GoldIn this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May12 - 16th. The Stock Indices were sluggish last week, holding at support. Wait for a market structure shift to the upside to confirm buys. Gold and Silver may move higher, as India and Pakistan, Gaza and Ukraine are increasingly troublesome. CPI Data on Tuesday. This could be a strong market mover. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!Long
by RT_Money
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the initial days of this week’s trading session, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a steady to low price movement pattern, successfully achieving a significant target at the Mean Support level of 5601, as indicated in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. Subsequently, the Index experienced a robust rebound, effectively retesting the Mean Resistance level of 5692. This upward trajectory achievement established a reversal pattern for the downward acceleration to repeat the Mean Support level 5601 retest. However, it is critical to recognize the considerable risk of a sharp upward movement from the current price action, which may lead to an ascent toward the next Mean Support level of 5778. Furthermore, there exists the potential for additional escalation, potentially reaching the Outer Index Rally level of 5915 and beyond.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Testing Key Resistance Levels - Weekly ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently attempting an uptrend rally, bouncing up from the April 7th 2025 support level ($488) and weekly support trendline. The current resistance price level is $569 above, and the support price level below is $555. SPY price needs to remain and close above $522 in May 2025 to maintain the current uptrend rally. Resistance price targets above: $569, $578, $600, $610. Support price targets below: $555, $542, $533, $512. Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, government law changes, and consumer sentiment will continue to affect the stock price action of SPY. Support price levels need to hold for an uptrend to continue in 2025.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts