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S&P 500 (SPX500)

#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Neutral until bulls come around or bears get below 5800. This pullback is too good for bulls not to buy and I have no interest in selling this. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell. Of course this can fail and bears are doing the real deal here. Therefore I wait for confirmation but bias is bullish. Quote from last week: comment: Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730. comment: 50% retracement hit and market closed above it on Friday. My preferred path for next week is a huge bull reversal higher. Is this likely after 2 strong bear days? No it’s not, so I have to wait for either side to show a clear new direction or continuation. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play) bull case: I do think bulls have to reverse big time from 5877 or risk dropping down to 5800 on Monday. If Monday goes strongly above 5930, we will likely print 6000 the same day or Tuesday. First target for the bulls is a close above the 1h 20ema around 5920 and then 5950. Above we will see acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 5860ish. bear case: Bears had a big surprise follow through day on Friday and if they can keep the momentum up, this trend is in serious question. Below 5860 we will accelerate down to 5800 and the bull trend line. I highly doubt that if we print 5800 before 6100, that we will see prices above 6000 for a long time. Invalidation is above 5950. outlook last week: short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now. → Last Sunday we traded 6025 and now we are at 5896. Bad outlook. Bad. short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: None chart update: Moved 50% retracement up, based on the recent bull leg.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P Hits All-Time Highs: Reversal Incoming?The S&P has hit an all-time high, breaking previous records. However, the chart suggests a potential reversal as it struggles to break the resistance at the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($6,019.68). Currently, the S&P is holding at the support level of $5,862.46. To maintain its bullish momentum, it must stay above this support. If it fails, the next support level is $5,772.72. A breakdown below these levels could trigger a broader market decline. This analysis is for educational purposes, and I hope the TradingView moderators respect that. My goal is to educate and build a strong community, providing transparent insights into the stock market. If you find this content valuable, please hit the like button. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments I'm happy to help. Thank you!
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the S&P 500 index has demonstrated considerable weakness by reaching the significant Outer Index Rally target 6000, as indicated in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis dated November 8. This decline has initiated a substantial pullback, as the index has fulfilled a key target of 6000. As a result, it has significantly decreased to the newly established Mean Support level of 5856, which suggests a potential continuation of the pullback toward the Mean Support levels of 5765 and 5700. However, it is essential to acknowledge that attaining these Mean Support levels may create the conditions for an upward price rebound before entering the subsequent phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
What are your thoughts on what's to come for SPX500?I think we're in for a sell to the previous structure high. Obviously a "Counter trend entry" to ride until we return bullish. Just my Thoughts.....What's your opinion? Thesis: Bearish Bias break and retest (however either play is at hand). Wait for a break and retest Notes: Every Bull run has had a correction to the previous structure high. Following that trend. A Retest would be a 50% prz. for the recent move and right around 23.6% prz for the entire move. Daily: Bullish, Trading in a minor consolidation for the past few days. -Reversal pattern with Doji (Loss of momentum) & Bearish Hammer. -Con: Seller Exhaustion wicks under support H4: Bullish ( **Hidden Bearish Divergence @ Minor resistance lvl) look for possible sell off H1: Bullish
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by brianfj
7
BEAR-TRAP : GAP Reversal May Lead To Larger EPP FlaggingPay attention to the dual Excess Phase Peak (EPP) patterns in the SPY this morning and how the current GAP Reversal pattern may resolve as a base/bottom in the markets in early trading. I believe the markets will shift from this early breakdown into a moderate upward (Flagging) trend. Learning to anticipate these types of shifts in the market can help you plan and prepare for future price trend rotations. Knowing the SPY is likely to attempt to base/bottom from a broader EPP pattern (moving into the sideways Flagging stage #2) suggests traders may attempt to prepare for a 0.75% to 1.25% upward price swing over the next 2 to 4+ days. This aggressive downward selling aligned perfectly with my SPY Cycle Patterns. Now, this low may be the Base/Bottom I'm expecting to shift into the FLAGGING phase of the larger EPP pattern (#2). Buckle up. This should be fun. Looks like a BEAR TRAP in the making. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-15: GAP-Reversal Counter-TrendToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will GAP downward at the open and attempt to identify a base/bottom throughout the day. I belive this move may represent a pause in the downward trend, shifting into a FLAGGING pattern as part of a broader Excess Phase Peak pattern. If I'm correct, we are going to move into a moderate BUYing opportunity for the SPY/QQQ lasting into Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Gold and Silver appear to be setting up a base/bottom off a very deep Phase #5 (Ultimate Low) of a current Excess Phase Peak pattern. This means, if we continue to get confirmation, that Gold and Silver will attempt to move higher and attempt to move into the Phase #3 of the Excess Phase Peak pattern (a move into a consolidation phase). BTCUSD is current exhibiting a dual type of Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests a broader breakdown is in the works. Possibly back down to 78-82k. This could be a very big contraction event for BTCUSD. Buckle up. Happy Friday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
S&P 500: Bearish Momentum Below 5927 S&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped perfectly as we mentioned in the previous idea so now still has a bearish volume to get 5891 and 5863 as long as it trades below 5927 otherwise, it should close 4h candle above 5928 to be bullish till 5952 and 5972 Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5927 Resistance Levels: 5952, 5972, 5989 Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5833 Trend Outlook: - Bearish Trend while below 5927 - Bullish trend if break 5939 previous idea
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
2024-11-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bears moving it lower but barely. Every low was followed by 7-10 point pullback. For tomorrow I can see the following, 5909 is the daily 20ema and the breakout retest is at 5924. Those could be potential targets if the bears are strong and keep the market below 6000. Above 6000 I think many bears will give up and market could retry 6030 or higher. On the daily chart we have a two legged pullback and bulls are free to melt again. Still heavily favoring the bulls since the selling is so weak. comment : Close below 6000 was good for the bears but does the 1h chart look bearish to you? Look at the daily chart and see how insignificant this move down is. Bears would need a big acceleration down and keep the market below the 5m 20ema for couple of hours and 100+ points. This will likely be a minor pullback which the bulls buy tomorrow. Be prepared for a nasty short squeeze tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we close above 6060 but consider me dumbfounded if we close the week below 5950. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5900 - 6100 bull case: Bulls want to close the week green and print another buy signal going into next week. Most bears will likely cover above 6000 and try again around 6015, which was the big magnet for the entire week and it will likely be for tomorrow as well. Above 6035 we see a complete give up by bears until 6053. Everything is in place for a big move tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5960. bear case: Bears closed below 6000. That’s the only thing they have going for them. Can they get down to the breakout price 5924 and daily 20ema around 5911? I highly doubt it. For that to happen the market would have to stay below 6000 and trap many bulls. Even a hot ppi print today could not move the market much and we had two sided trading all day. In all fairness, we have a very clear bull channel on the daily chart, with 2 upper trend lines, one around the ath 6053 and the other currently runs through 6180. I think 6180 is currently much more likely than touching the lower trend line at 5760. Invalidation is above 6001. short term: Bullish. Want to see a 2%+ up move tomorrow and squeeze further. Below 5950 we will print 5920 or 5900. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. Update 2024-11-14: Blow-off top happening right now. Got measured move targets above 6150 or higher. Santa came early, so don’t expect him to come around again this year. current swing trade : Nope trade of the day: Selling the open was decent I guess. Market looks much more bearish on the 1h tf than it was. Much two sided trading with better end for the bears. I don’t think selling 6000 was a good trade, despite going down to 5964.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPX 500 day trading LONGAnalysis: Market Structure & Probabilities OANDA:SPX500USD PML (Previous Monthly Low) has been broken, moving higher than last month's low. PMH (Previous Monthly High) has also been broken, pushing beyond last month’s high. PWH/PWL (Previous Weekly High/Low) similarly breached, with price moving higher than the previous month's range. PDL (Previous Daily Low) and 4H Swing High/Low have also been surpassed. These indicators suggest a strong bullish bias, with an 87.5% probability of further upside movement vs. a 12.5% bearish scenario (reflected in PDH, as the price dipped below yesterday’s high). Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.14 Simple as that.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Jaytradermb
Special Update: Trump Win Sets Off Predatory Fed ActionsThis video highlights why I believe 2025 & 2026 will be filled with incredible opportunities for traders/investors. Most people don't understand that the world's financial markets are connected through central bank policy and credit/debt operations. Global economies operate in some ways as interconnected economies, but many aspects of individual global economies are unique to their local economies, governments, and monetary policies. Right now, we are living through what may become the "Great Decoupling Event," as I believe the actions of the US Federal Reserve and global central banks over the past 10+ years have created a unique situation for investors. There has never been a time when global central banks attempted to coordinate around a global event (like COVID) in an attempt to spark economic activity. Usually, global central banks operate somewhat autonomously, depending on localized credit/debt/economic factors. After the COVID crisis, I believe global central banks moved back into that mostly autonomous mode and failed to see the potential strength of the US economy - driving foreign currency values and debt markets crazy. With Trump's second term "locked up," the data shows the money supply activity and expectations have changed (upward). The recent rate decreases by the US Fed were in the wrong direction. Now that money supply activity is moving aggressively to the upside, I think the US Fed will aggressively change its direction and begin to raise rates in early 2025 (or maybe even before the end of 2024). This video attempts to show you why I believe an Anomaly Event is very likely before January 2025 and why I believe the US Fed is currently unprepared for what will likely come in early 2025 with Trump's inauguration. If this trend continues, the Fed will be forced to fight inflationary trends again aggressively, which will most likely put extreme pressure on global credit/debt markets. As a trader/investor - this should present some great opportunities for skilled traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
TVC:DJILong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-14 : Temp Bottom In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to continue to flag sideways and slightly higher after finding support in early trading. Watch my video in detail. I go into a lot of longer-term price pattern detail and discuss the post-election setup of my Anomaly Event expectation. As I see the markets right now, they have moved, and continue to move in a direction that is likely to present a very real moderate crisis event over the next 3 to 6+ months. The stronger US Dollar is very likely to put pressure on foreign markets/debt related to the "carry trade" that was abundant before and after COVID. The Trump win is sending the markets into a Super-Predator mode (maybe I'll create a new video about this), where global markets, central banks, and global financial institutions may be at risk related to their long-term debt positions. At this point, The SPY and the QQQ will likely slide into a consolidation phase (a type of FLAGGING related to the broader Excess Phase Peak pattern) over the next 3+ days. Then, I expect the Anomaly Event to start to take shape and for the SPY/QQQ to begin a downward price trend. Gold and Silver are struggling to find a bottom as the US Dollar continues to rally. Don't expect any relief for metals as along as the US Dollar is rallying like this. This is a predatory shift related to global assets and Gold/Silver are going to stay weaker for as long as this shift continues. BTCUSD may rally up to $108k~120k if my research is correct. BTCUSD is in a "rally to the ultimate high" mode based on a very large Weekly Excess Phase Peak pattern. Remember, everything you need to know is already on the price chart. You just have to learn to identify these patterns and spend some time looking around at various intervals to figure out what is going to happen next. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
SPX500 D1 | Falling to pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,876.68 which is a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 50.0% retracement levels. Stop loss is at 5,670.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 6,204.33 which is a level that aligns with the 100.0% Fibonacci projection level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
S&P500 Is Approaching Key Support Level.Hey Traders, In today’s trading session, we’re keeping a close watch on the US500 for a potential buying opportunity around the 5800 zone. The index is currently trading in an uptrend, but we’re seeing it enter a corrective phase. This correction is bringing it back toward the 5800 support and resistance area, a critical zone that aligns with the broader upward trend. The 5800 level could serve as a strong entry point, offering an opportunity to join the prevailing uptrend at a favorable price. If price action confirms support at this level, it may signal a potential rally continuation in line with the broader market momentum. As always, ensure you manage risk and stay cautious in your entries. Trade safe, Joe
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by JoeChampion
5
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-13 : Consolidation PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Consolidation pattern. I believe the SPY will continue to attempt to form a "rolling top" pattern over the next few days and attempt to move into my Anomaly event over the next 15+ days. This Anomaly event is likely to prompt a fairly strong downward trend related to the recent post-election rally. I believe Gold and Silver MAY HAVE found the ultimate low. It sure looks like Gold and Silver are attempting to base with a near-perfect Excess Phase Peak pattern Ultimate Low setup. Time will tell. If gold and silver fall further, the rallying of the US dollar will likely be the cause. I'm watching BTCUSD for a toping formation as I spent quite a bit of time going over the dual Excess Phase Peak pattern in BTCUSD. This is very interesting because it aligns with Fibonacci Price Theory very cleanly. Today, it seems traders can kind of take a break from the markets. If my analysis is correct, today will be a fairly quiet Consolidation day - where price attempts to trade in a bit of a sideways price mode - searching for the next big move. Pay attention to the BTCUSD chart where I highlight the 13:00 to 15:00 ET Flag Apex time. It appears BTCUSD may move into a volatile price phase near this time - possibly associated with some news or event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
tesla still has a shot at ATHthis bull market has carried tsla to prices not seen since september 2022. with the size of the bounce and the consolidation in the s&p500 volatility is expected to rise in this name. the trend continuation could happen at any of these market structure levels, an i would remain long the stock on any breakout or bounce from these levels. ive used horizonfal lines to mark out support, resistance and pivot levels that could sway price. is aim as high as ATH or as low as pwVAH.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by cerealindicator
S&P 500 prospects A significant number of companies in the S&P Index are invested in developing and innovating, especially in the technology sector. With the development of artificial intelligence (AI), we expect to see not just growth, but a real boom in the market, as AI promises to revolutionize many industries. The changes associated with AI can affect the efficiency of business processes, the creation of new products and services, and the competitiveness of companies. In addition, current economic policies characterized by low interest rates play a key role in this scenario. Low rates make the cost of borrowing much easier, which stimulates both economic activity and investment. Businesses can expand, invest in research and development, and at the same time consumers can afford to spend more, further supporting economic growth. This combination of factors, from the innovative power of tech giants to favorable monetary policy, creates a unique environment for significant growth in the S&P 500 Index. Investment in AI is expected to not only increase, but also lead to the creation of new markets and business models, which could provide sustainable and long-term growth for the economy and, by extension, for stocks. Analyzing the current market trends through the prism of technical analysis, we notice that the chart shows a structure resembling the formation of the fifth wave within the Elliott Wave Theory. Our forecasts and mathematical calculations indicate that this wave may peak at approximately $6100. In addition, we observe that market prices are firmly positioned above the significant level of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is traditionally considered a sign of an uptrend or bull market. This indicator emphasizes the stability of the current uptrend. Additional confirmation that the $6,100 level is a promising level for profit taking is the extended Fibonacci level of 1,618. Best wishes, Horban Brothers.
TVC:SPXLong
by horbanbrothers
Presidential cycle. Will the crossing of RUT and SPX be repeatedDuring the Presidential Cycle is possible to verify that both indexes make peaks and troughs by the same time with similar moves. By early 2016, the indexes followed the same movement by roughly three months, after that SP500 and Russell2000 made a new high just before the elections. The prices continues to rise until the pandemic. By early March 2020, SPX crosses above RTU and it was above until a little before Biden election, thereafter RUT crossed again making a new high two months later SP500 also made a new high. By early January 2024, SPX crossed definitely RUT with SPX already making a new high. So following the history after the elections is time to RUT to cross above the SPX line as well as to reach another higher high(??)
TVC:RUT
by AFCapital21
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-12 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's video is filled with great content. Near the end of the video, I review the 11 SPDR sectors related to my deep research into my Anomaly price pattern. Right now, I see the markets as very over-extended (overbought). I believe the markets will attempt to contact over the next 15-20+ days - setting up a base/bottom before a very late-stage Santa Rally sets up. I've been very busy over the past few day and have a family member in the hospital right now. So, I'll be away from my PC for a bit today. Remember, protect capital at all times. I've been getting messages from people suggesting some traders are trying to go ALL-IN on some of these bigger price moves. My suggestion more than three weeks ago (and even right now), is you should be in 85% CASH unless you can take the LUMPS related to trading through a hotly contested election event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2