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S&P 500 (SPX500)

SPX: Presidential elections and FOMCThe US stocks had a relatively mixed week. The S&P 500 started the week with the negative sentiment, around the level of 5.840, and moved in Thursday trading session to the lowest weekly level at 5.705. Still, during Friday the index managed to gain some 0,4%, ending the week at the level of 5.728. The Non-farm payrolls were the major surprise for the markets during the previous week. The US economy added only 12.000 new jobs in October, which was the lowest level since the pandemic. Analysts are noting that such a weak performance is a result of hurricanes and labor strikes, and that the labor market in the US stands on solid grounds. Amazon was one of the companies which was in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 6,2%, as the company continues to strengthen its cloud and advertising business above market current expectations. Intel was another company which strongly outperformed market forecasts, gaining 7,8% for the week. Regardless of a bumpy start of November, this might continue for the week ahead. Namely, two quite important events for the US are scheduled for the week ahead - on November 5th the US Presidential elections and FOMC rate decision on November 7th. These two events are implying that higher volatility and market nervousness might continue for another week.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Full Trading Plan For Monday Nov 4thPlan for Monday Supports: • Major: 5760-63, 5740, 5728-30, 5712, 5692, 5677, 5661, 5646-50, 5616, 5599-5602, 5590, 5575, 5563, 5544, 5524-28, 5499-5502 • Minor: 5756, 5751, 5745, 5723, 5715, 5702, 5683, 5672, 5667, 5654, 5638, 5633, 5627, 5621, 5578, 5558, 5552, 5534, 5517, 5511, 5506 Overview: We’re moving into a high-volatility week with the upcoming election and FOMC. Most volatility is expected post-election (Tuesday evening and Wednesday) with FOMC on Thursday, creating a challenging trading environment with broad, two-way swings. Conditions should be favorable for failed breakdowns, with more detailed guidance to come in other days plans this week. For now, we saw organized price movement: elevator down on Thursday, short squeeze relief on Friday, back-testing 5802, then rejection. Bulls haven’t reclaimed significant levels (like 5802), but they’ve held prior lows, and the 5802 rejection was gradual. The relief bounce remains live until 5728-30 fails. Closing near 5760-63, this level could pop again, but headline risk suggests waiting until Sunday’s open for an entry. Below, a strong support cluster sits at 5740 and 5728-30. Testing 5740 could be viable, but 5728-30 is a safer bid zone, especially if it sets up a failed breakdown near recent lows. If this zone breaks, it’s likely we’ll see an “elevator down” scenario like Thursday. Below 5728-30, I’m not rushing to long, but levels like 5712, 5692, and 5677 could be interesting zones for potential reactions, especially 5677. Key Zones for Monday: • 5740: Major support; bears might push through. Look for a possible recovery above 5740 as a sign for a long setup. • 5728-30: Critical support; if breached, approach with caution, i will be waiting for clear failed breakdowns before entering here • 5712, 5692, and 5677: Areas of interest lower down. These levels may offer potential entries, but patience is advised to observe reactions. Resistances: • Major: 5783, 5797-5802, 5820, 5826-28, 5854, 5864, 5880, 5886, 5911, 5919-22, 5937, 5953, 5965, 5976 • Minor: 5770, 5779, 5792, 5807, 5813, 5838, 5842, 5848, 5861, 5868, 5873, 5892, 5898, 5902, 5906, 5914, 5928, 5944, The back-test short setup off 5802 worked well on Friday. Revisiting 5797-5802 on Monday may yield another short opportunity, though it’s not as fresh. Safer shorts may present at 5820 or 5826-28, which should produce a more decisive reaction. Bull Case for Monday: Bulls haven’t done much to show control but have managed to survive. The relief bounce holds as long as 5728-30 doesn’t break, suggesting continued back-tests of Thursday’s major breakdown zones. This scenario sees 5740 or 5728-30 holding on deep flushes. In an ideal setup, bulls maintain above 5760 and push up directly. A typical path might involve a test of 5802, followed by a dip, filling out the range, then advancing to 5826-28. Adding around 5760-63 or pops above 5670 may be worth exploring, but patience is recommended. Bear Case for Monday: The bear case strengthens if 5728-30 fails. As noted daily, breakdown trades below support carry risks. Failed breakdowns are often the norm, with roughly 80% of breakdown attempts resulting in traps. These setups are advanced and should be executed cautiously. Even for skilled traders, over 60% of breakdown trades may fail, with only the occasional setup yielding high returns. If this risk isn’t tolerable, or if you’re newer to trading, it’s wise to avoid these trades. I generally avoid chasing setups; the zone needs to be tested with a clear failed breakdown before shorting, potentially around 5723 or below based on the structure. Summary for Monday: The focus remains on the election. We’re in a relief bounce from Thursday’s lows. My bias leans toward a continuation of this bounce, potentially revisiting 5797-5802, then dipping to target 5828. If 5728-30 breaks, the relief bounce is invalid, likely initiating a next leg lower, potentially below 5700.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Election Volatility Shakes Up US MarketsS&P 500 ● The index retreated from its all-time high of 5,880, initiating a downward trend. ● A breakdown below the Rising Wedge pattern has been confirmed. ● Key support levels to watch: ➖ Immediate support: 5,670 ➖ Strong support: 5,400 Nasdaq Composite ● The index has hit an all-time high near the 18,750 level before beginning to retreat. ● After breaking through the trendline support, the index is currently hovering slightly above the next immediate support level. ● If it dips below this support, we could see a significant drop, potentially driving the index down to the 16,670 level. **This market volatility is consistent with historical trends during US presidential election years. The 2024 election is particularly unpredictable due to conflicting economic indicators and potential delays in results.
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the S&P 500 index exhibited considerable weakness by completing the Inner Index Dip at 5733, in conjunction with the Mean Support level of 5798, while leaving the gap by not reaching the secondary Mean Support level of 5700. This development of fulfilling the gap will likely stimulate a significant rebound toward the Mean Resistance level of 5775, with the possibility of further extension. The 5700 support level is critical for facilitating a primary recovery and advancing into the subsequent phase of the bullish trend. However, it is imperative to acknowledge that achieving and penetrating the 5700 level could instigate a downward spiral in price action to Mean Sup 5620.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 11-1 Update: Silver Still LeadingPlease watch this video to understand why I believe the downside risks are still dominant related to price trending. Yes, we've seen a solid recovery today, but watching Silver and RSP, it appears the Excess Phase Peak pattern is still progressing toward a breakdown new low. I urge all traders to stay very cautious of the risks throughout today and Monday. The markets need to climb higher quite a bit to invalidate this pattern - and I don't see that happening before Nov 5. Buckle up. Get some.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by BradMatheny
S&P 500 tests THIS resistance after NFP bounceFollowing the weaker US NFP data and thanks to strong performance from Amazon, the S&P 500 rallied. But this comes hot on the heels of a big drop the day before, which means the recovery could fade if Thursday marked a reversal day in the markets. At the time of writing, the SPX 500 was testing resistance right around the 5770-5775 area. Previously this was a key short-term support zone until Thursday's breakdown. Now below this area, the 200-period MA and the bullish trend line, could we see this zone now turn into resistance? If the selling resumes here then the next big area of support below Thursday's low is at around 5670, marking the high made back in July. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by FOREXcom
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Nov 1: CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern suggests the markets may experience a very large and violent price move - likely downward. My experience with CRUSH patterns is they are often related to the dominant trend on the Daily chart and seeing as though we are in the midst of a fairly solid rally phase (recent higher highs on almost all charts), I believe this CRUSH pattern will resolve to the downside. Many of you know I've been predicting a very strong pullback leading into the US elections, and yesterday, we saw what may have been the start of that pullback. Today's CRUSH pattern could carry us into very strong market selling into the end of trading today and I believe traders should have already moved assets away from the current risks in the markets. It seems as though almost every market I review has moved into an Excess Phase Peak pattern over the past 2-3+ days. Today, I'm looking for Gold & Silver to attempt a breakdown away from the Phase #3 consolidation of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. BTCUSD is set up almost exactly the same - looking for a breakdown. The SPY/QQQ are moving into that consolidation phase and looking for that breakdown in price. It's almost as if the markets are reacting to some pending event that drives uncertainty.. THE ELECTION. Smart traders (skilled intraday traders) should be able to pull off some really great trades throughout the day. Smart Swing traders are waiting for the base/bottom (Ultimate low) and are looking to move into CALL OPTION trades as a hedge related to a post-election rally phase. If you missed all of this over the past few weeks, today is nothing more than a panic reaction to risks. The markets will settle after the election and will likely move back into a solid bullish price trend after Nov10th or so. Buckle up - this could be a wild day. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
8
SPX in monthly (log)Hello community, A quick review of the month on the SPX index. A red candle for this month of October. I have indicated in orange the simple 12-period average (monthly) The price is in the upper part of the channel, I don't see anything alarming on the chart. The trend is still bullish, I prefer to invest my money in the American market, than on the old continent which is very sick! Whether it is Harris against Trump, the new president will have a country in working order to face the future. I have confidence in the USA. Make your opinion, before placing an order. ► Thank you for boosting, commenting, subscribing!
SP:SPXLong
by DL_INVEST
SPx / Critical Levels to Watch for Bullish or Bearish MomentumS&P 500 Index Technical Analysis: To initiate a downside move, the price needs to stabilize below 5,863. However, any quick break above 5,863 would likely propel the price towards 5,891. Bearish Scenario: Stability below 5,863 would open the path to 5,824 and 5,803. A 4-hour candle close below 5,781 would activate a stronger bearish zone, allowing for further declines. Bullish Scenario: A successful breakout above 5,863 would signal potential for a move to 5,891. A further break above 5,891 would confirm the bullish trend, with an extended target of 5,939. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5863 Resistance Levels: 5891, 5939 Support Levels: 5824, 5803, 5781 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5863 Bullish above 5863 and 5891
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 10-31: Halloween BreakdownThis short video discusses why traders need to prepare for a downward move and the eventual move into Phase #3 of the Excess Phase Peak pattern (consolidation). I believe this consolidation phase will be very short-lived. So be aware of the continued risks to the downside. This election has many traders concerned about pre-/post-market jitters. Bonds continue to put pressure on the debt markets, and Gold and silver are not contracting downward (as I suggested), reflecting a real panic-type trending mode. Spend a bit of time watching my past videos. It is very impressive that you called this move 3+ weeks in advance, and I continue to believe we will see a base/bottom setup just after the election. So, there is still a boatload of opportunities for skilled traders. Buckle up - this move downward is likely to be very volatile. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-31 : Consolidation PatternToday's video highlights the power and simplicity of what I attempt to do for all of you. I'm not perfect. I don't see into the future using some magic crystal ball. I use my tools and skills to watch the markets and apply my knowledge to the charts to identify the most likely future outcome. My SPY Cycle pattern predictions seem perfect, showing a top setting up between Oct 29-31, then rolling into a reasonably sharp market decline. Yesterday's Excess Phase Peak pattern in Silver seemed to lead to weakness in the markets while the SPY was attempting to break through the Flag Apex pattern. Combined, this cross-market weakness has translated into a very strong overnight selling event where the SPY is already off more than 0.50% and Gold/Silver are struggling near recent highs. I hope viewers are learning from watching my charts and research. I try to explain things as clearly as I can and show you how to apply these techniques on your own. As I state in this video, you can build better skills. You can improve your abilities to attempt to see into the future (a bit) and learn to apply better trading abilities. You don't have to be tied to failed techniques and indicators the rest of your life. It just takes some patience and a lot of learning. Anyway, I hope you see how my effort are helping you and I will continue to do my best to educate you and help you stay ahead of these market trends. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update For 10-30: ConsolidationWhat an interesting day regarding how the markets reacted to the Flags and APEX setups. My update video was perfect as we saw the market break away from the Flag Apex and trend downward almost all afternoon. With BTCUSD moving into a Flagging formation within a potential Excess Phase Peak pattern near $72, things are about to get interesting. Either we see the breakdown of support in the markets over the next 4-5+ days or we see support hold and the markets rally a bit higher going into the long weekend. It's an either A or B type of scenario right now. I estimate fear and uncertainty drive the markets about 3.5 to 5.5% lower before the election. Buckle up and prepare for real market volatility. By tomorrow's end, make sure you are protected from risk. Beyond that, at this point, it is a wait-and-see type of situation. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
3
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bull trend line is now also broken and once market prints below 5800, this is over until year end rally might try 6000 again. Same logic as dax but market is not as bearish after today. Bears need follow through below 5820 and then 5800, if they get it, buckle up. Bulls obviously want to reverse up like the past 2 weeks and trade above 5900 again. current market cycle: triangle probably broken - entering bigger trading range key levels: 5800 - 5870 bull case: Bulls need to stay above 5830 or we test 5820, followed by 5800. Today’s close does not look good. Before the close I heavily favored the bulls to reverse this again but then we saw couple of sell spikes which erased the previous lows. Market turns neutral again above 5865. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears need follow through. No surprise. 5800 is the target for tomorrow, once they get it, market is free to fall down to 5730-5740. Interesting day ahead of us. Invalidation is above 5920. short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5865. Best chance for bears in a long time. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 5880 and buying 5850 has been profitable for many days now. So it was today.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Shift Market Trends - BUCKLE UPThis update is to show you why I believe the markets have already started moving into the low-liquidity phase I have been suggesting for more than 3+ weeks. This low-liquidity phase will happen as we move closer to the US elections. Simply put, traders are very anxious regarding the outcome of the election and the chaos that may happen after the election. Because of this, I believe many traders have already pulled capital away from the markets and are sitting on CASH. This lack of market liquidity could present a very real risk of a FLASH-crash type of event. So, BUCKLE UP. Metals shifted downward (silver is leading almost all other markets with very clear patterns/setups). BTCUSD appears to have peaked and is rolling downward. The SPY is about to APEX into a new FLAG APEX - thus we should expect extreme volatility over the next 3+ hours of trading. Possibly leading to a strong downtrend near the end of trading today. And, I believe all of this points to the lack of liquidity event taking shape. Moving the markets into a type of low liquidity PANIC mode (downward). Play safe and Buckle Up! Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
🏃‍♀️🏃🏽‍♀️ Crypto market. “Sell in May and Go away”The historical pattern known as the seasonal divergence "Sell in May, and Go away" was popularized by the Stock Trader's Almanac, which stated that investing in stocks represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average November through April and switching to fixed income for the remaining six months "would have delivered reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950." What is “Sell in May and Go away”? “Sell in May and Go away” is a well-known adage in finance. It is based on the stock's historical underperformance over a six-month period from May to October. According to Fidelity Investments, the divergence has remained most pronounced in recent years, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) gaining an average of about 2% from May to October between 1990 and the next 30 years, compared with an average of about 7% since November to April. The Halloween Indicator's research paper, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Everywhere and All the Time*, which examined stock markets outside the US, found the same pattern, calling the seasonal divergence trend "remarkably persistent." Key Findings 👉 “Sell in May and Go away” is a saying that refers to the historically weaker performance of financial markets from May to October compared to the other half of the year. 👉 Investors can try to benefit from this pattern by switching to less risky assets from May to October based on historical data. Seasonality in investment flows could continue as a result of financial industry and business year-end bonuses, possibly aided by the mid-April U.S. income tax filing deadline. Whatever the fundamental considerations, the historical picture became more pronounced as a result of the October stock market crashes of 1987 and 2008. Bottom Line The only drawback of historical patterns is that they do not reliably predict the future. This is especially true for well-known historical patterns. If enough people became convinced that the “Sell in May and Go Away” pattern would continue, it would essentially begin to disappear immediately. All the early sellers would try to sell in April and bid against each other to buy back the assets before the others in October. At the same time, certain considerations regarding the development of geopolitical events in the period from May to October 2024 give reason to think about the prospects of such a scenario for the next 6 months. * The Halloween Indicator, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Everywhere and All the Time Ben Jacobsen Tilburg University - TIAS School for Business and Society; Massey University Cherry Yi Zhang Nottingham University Business School China; Massey University - School of Economics and Finance
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by Pandorra
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-30 : GapUp-Higher PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will attempt to GAP higher at the open, then continue to trend upward throughout the day. I go into great detail in this video trying to highlight the setups and constructs of price for my followers. We are moving into a very volatile period for the markets with what I believe will be a low liquidity event taking place throughout the election. My thoughts are that liquidity will dry up later this week and early next week before the election day (we also have a Holiday on Monday). So, if my analysis is correct, we are going to be looking for the US and global markets to clearly illustrate extreme anticipation/fear related to who the US will elect. That should translate into extreme potential market volatility. I urge traders to watch this video (and some of my more recent videos). Now is the time to prepare for this extreme market volatility and to learn to PULL AWAY from risks. There is no reason to be trading like normal throughout this event. By late today or late tomorrow, you should really ask yourself "how much are you willing to risk throughout the election event and long weekend". Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2