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S&P 500 (SPX500)

Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.2.2024🔮 📅Mon Dec 2 ⏰10:00am ISM Manufacturing PMI 📅Tue Dec 3 ⏰10:00am JOLTS Job Openings 📅Wed Dec 4 ⏰8:15am ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ⏰10:00am ISM Services PMI ⏰10:30am Crude Oil Inventories ⏰1:45pm Fed Chair Powell Speaks 📅Thu Dec 5 All Day OPEC-JMMC Meetings ⏰8:30am Unemployment Claims 📅Fri Dec 6 ⏰8:30am Average Hourly Earnings m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting ⏰
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Max bullish. New ath is done, now I have two upper targets left for this year. We have 2 decent upper bull trend lines where only the #1 target of 6300 fits. The other would be 6450 but too far and too low probability for now. Bears would need anything below 5850 to kill the rally. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again. comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs . current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6500) bull case: Last hurrah. 6150 is my next target and if we don’t stop, 6500. Is this a bubble? Yes. Can you short this? No. Trends can go much further than anyone can imagine and your account can not sustain the drawdown of early shorts. Breakout is clear, as is the chart. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Non-starter is this here. Daily close below 5850, then I start looking at this with a bigger bullish eye. Invalidation is above 6070. outlook last week: short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now. → Last Sunday we traded 5987 and now we are at 6051. Perfect outlook. short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Full Gameplan For Monday Dec 2ndPlan for Monday **Supports:** • Major: 6045, 6032, 6024, 6014, 5988-93, 5983, 5961-5959, 5954, 5943, 5933, 5914, 5893, 5878-81, 5859-62, 5843, 5820. • Minor: 6038, 6033, 6018, 6009, 6002, 5976, 5972, 5948, 5928, 5922, 5921, 5908, 5904, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5854, 5850, 5836, 5828. **Resistances:** • Major: 6063, 6088, 6100, 6119, 6131, 6143, 6162, 6181, 6195-6200, 6223, 6242, 6253, 6274-78. • Minor: 6055, 6072, 6093, 6106, 6123, 6153, 6168, 6172, 6190, 6206, 6217, 6233, 6260, 6264. **Market Context and Strategy** Current Position: I am still trailing my 10% long runner from the 5988 reclaim last Monday, with adds already completed at 6002 and 6025. Last week was an extremely profitable session, and now is a time to sit back and wait for new opportunities. This means there is nothing for me to do until price resets. This means either 1) A sharp selloff or 2) ES starts to build another consolidation that gives me some structure to work with. Closing at all-time highs limits actionable trades at the open: 1. Longs: Risky due to potential retrace as normal volume returns Monday, and no current structure supports a strong continuation without price discovery. 2. Shorts: Not viable for my strategy as they go against strength and the prevailing uptrend, which is a very low win rate strategy. 3. Consolidation Risk: Very High, due to shorts and longs being of high risk... ultimately giving the need for the market to digest the recent parabolic move. Additionally, “Hangover Mondays” often see ES retrace a significant portion of a holiday rally, reflecting the shift from low-volume, artificial, hype holiday trading turning to real money trading basically. Of course this doesn’t always happen (there is no always in markets), but its a fairly strong seasonal tendency particularly after Thanksgiving week. **Bull Case for Monday:** The bull case depends on defending Friday’s breakout levels while building structure for continuation. Key zones for bulls to hold include: 1. 6045 (Major Support): The first key level to test. A flush and reclaim here or tight flagging would signal continued strength. 2. 6032 (Major Support): A failed breakdown at this level would confirm strong demand, providing an opportunity for longs. Upside targets: • Initial resistance at 6063. If bulls can consolidate or break through here, the next moves aim for 6072, 6088, and eventually 6100. Structure to watch: • A tight flag or basing above 6045 but below 6063 going into monday would signal readiness for a breakout continuation. **Bear Case for Monday:** There is no significant bear case unless 5993 fails, but short-term bearish setups could emerge if: 1. 6032 Breaks Down: A loss of this level would invalidate Friday’s breakout, signaling that the holiday rally may have been fake. 2. Sharp Flush to 6024: This would align with the typical “hangover” effect, where ES retraces the low-volume holiday move. Watch for failed breakdowns or reactions at this level before shorting below it. **Key to trading breakdowns:** • Do not chase. Look for: • A flush to 6024, followed by a reclaim and bounce, or • A failed breakdown at 6032 to gauge where buyers step in. • If these recalims subsequently fail, momentum could build toward lower supports like 6014, 5988-93, or deeper levels. My Short Entry Strategy: Wait for a final bounce attempt at the level (traps happen more than anything, so in order to short, you need to wait for a trap to happen first), then short after sellers flush the lows of the structure. This ensures demand has been exhausted first. More on this in Private group **Summary for Monday:** A light trading day with the following key takeaways: • Bullish Lean: Hold levels like 6045, 6032 (failed breakdown possible) to resume the breakout and test 6063, 6088, 6100+. • Bearish Risk: A failure of 6032 invalidates Friday’s breakout, likely leading to a deeper retrace to 6024, 6014, or lower. Be patient and wait for price discovery to reveal the next structure for setups. Avoid chasing moves in either direction and focus on clear opportunities with defined risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
$SPY Why We Will Continue Down / Bear Market Not FinishedWhat is Federal Funds Rate? The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks and other depository institutions lend money to each other overnight on an uncollateralized basis. It is the interest rate at which banks can borrow or lend money in the federal funds market. The Federal Reserve uses the federal funds rate as a tool to implement monetary policy and control inflation. By raising or lowering the federal funds rate, the Federal Reserve can influence the overall level of interest rates in the economy, thereby impacting economic growth and inflation. How Does Federal Funds Rate Affect The Economy? The Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can have a significant impact on the overall economy. When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it makes borrowing money more expensive for banks, which in turn makes borrowing more expensive for individuals and businesses. This can slow down economic growth by making it more difficult for companies to expand and for consumers to purchase big-ticket items like homes and cars. On the other hand, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate, it makes borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic growth by making it easier for businesses to expand and for consumers to purchase big-ticket items. Lowering the federal funds rate can also help to combat inflation by making it less expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can help to keep prices stable. The Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can also affect the stock market, currency exchange rate, and bond market. In summary, the Federal Reserve's setting of the federal funds rate can have a significant impact on the economy by affecting interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. What is the Projection of Federal Funds Rate In 2023? Due to Ukraine and COVID, this has led to a historic rise in interest rates. This means that borrowing costs are increased, saving becomes more attractive/less spending, and stock prices may decrease/bonds favored. Markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates again on February 1, 2023, likely by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%-4.75%. However, there’s a reasonable chance the Fed opts for a larger 0.5 percentage point hike. Hope this helps.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Smarter_Trades
15
S&P 500 HYPERWAVE CRASH The S&P 500 is currently going through a huge macro hyper-wave, this has been confirmed. This has already been calculated and factored into the 'algo', I'm highly confident we are approaching the final stages of 'wave 4' which will end in resumption to the downside (wave 5) and followed by the 'bounce' or 'wave 6'. After wave 6 has concluded, it's game over. Wave 7 will complete the hyper-wave and will be catastrophic to not only the markets but the economy by extension... please keep this in mind as when this all comes down we're entering something far worse than the 1929 crash and the great depression that followed.
SP:SPXShort
by BernerFX
2
SPX macro analysis ⏰ Hello 👋 it's me your RAJ 🙂 professional trader ✨ This idea 💡 is completely my own analysis to explain situation _&_ market conditions of CBOE:SPX How this chart valid for long term 📌 explained clearly based on technical #TA 📌 #DYOR Let's go with market conditions 1st 👉 PPL 📌 thinking 🤔 big crash in S&P500 , based on economy and some other theories I don't this things go , if this happens 😂 it will vanish not only stocks or companies even goverment also get vanish Money 💰 >> PPL work / save in -> gold , bank & stocks Money 💰 >> banks -> save in ->> gold , stocks & giving loan to company & PPL 📌 Money 💰 >> companies -> save in future growth 📈 give return to retailers and keep on increasing vlaue for future like NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , NASDAQ:AMD etc .... if stocks lose 📌 PPL lose 📌 if ppl lose 📌 goverment also lose 📌 biggest revaluation 😂 This is the major index ☝️ for many stocks , did you think 🤔 it will crash 🩸 that much harder 🙂 Use 🧠 👀 Let's go with my technical analysis ⏰ #TA ->> how I am expecting macro growth 💹 👀 There tend line 🙄 at previous High 2022 > to < 2023 which actually promised trend 📉 line and even turned as resistance 📌 for 1.2yr + Finally it was broken and re-test also done 👍 turned as support 📌 💜💚 🚀 👀 According technical analysis 📌 my analysis get Invalid 📌 when month close below $3800.2 👀 There was oder block strong 🚀 support 📌 in 3 - month $4000-4200 👀 The previous order block at $4300 & $4600 easily broken 😂 These and some other theories making me push towards new high 💰 Expecting target's 🎯 🎯 :: $4880-$5018 ( easy target ) 🎯 :: $5324-$5469 ( 💯 target ) 🎯 :: $5885-$6484 ( high pressure resistance ) Support 📌 $3900-4200 This is my analysis on S&P500 on macro , i will post other patterns and chart of technical as per education under this post 📌 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🪩 disclaimer : ▶️ TQ u for supporting 💚 follow idea 💡 get updates everytime ⏰ when I updated 📌 Note 👀 👉 keeping comments , reacting with emojis , pointing us is very easy to some people They think 💬 what they see 📌 that was knowledge 📌 We need to learn market in many ways and should get adopted with experience, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won't help understanding market structure and understanding bull 🐂 and bear 🐻 is more important Economical conditions Fundamentals Technical News Sentiments Checking macro to micro having good plan and build it is very important ☺️ Some Times market easily turn suddenly bear // bull 🤣 even we need to catch 🫴 those movements is also very important ☺️ 💛 I hope i cleared my view 🙂 if any points if I miss I will add in update 📌 post Try to understand, try to learn - try to move with flexibility with market is important Have good day 😊
SP:SPXLong
by raj5_7_5
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's abbreviated trading session, the S&P 500 index has demonstrated significant upward movement, successfully retesting the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6000 and maintaining its position above the Mean Resistance level of 6008. The primary objective is to reach the Outer Index Rally target of 6123, with the potential for further extension to the subsequent Outer Index Rally level at 6233. This notable ascent toward the Outer Index Rally target of 6123 is projected to induce a pullback to the Mean Support level of 6000, facilitating the bullish trend's next phase.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin Breaks $97K Resistance: Path to $121K Unfolds!Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a significant pullback to the $90,940 level, which remains above the current support at $89,674 . This retracement has culminated in the formation of a robust inverse head and shoulders pattern, a bullish reversal indicator suggesting a potential upward trajectory. As BTC breaks through the resistance level of $97,273 , our focus shifts to short-term targets of $101,220 and $104,890 , with a long-term objective of $121,000. Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern The inverse head and shoulders pattern is a classic bullish reversal formation, indicating a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend. It consists of three troughs: the head (the lowest point) flanked by two higher shoulders. The neckline, drawn across the peaks between the troughs, serves as a critical resistance level. A breakout above this neckline confirms the pattern, signaling a potential upward movement. Technical Indicators Supporting the Bullish Outlook Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average has recently crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming a ‘golden cross,’ which is typically interpreted as a bullish signal. Volume Trends: There has been a significant increase in trading volumes since March, suggesting growing institutional adoption and investor interest. Market Sentiment and External Factors The recent U.S. presidential election outcome, favoring Donald Trump, has been perceived as positive for the cryptocurrency market. Expectations of a crypto-friendly administration have bolstered investor confidence, contributing to Bitcoin’s surge. Price Targets Short-Term: Given the current momentum and technical indicators, Bitcoin is poised to reach the short-term targets of $101,220 and $104,890. Long-Term: Sustaining this bullish trend could propel Bitcoin towards the long-term target of $121,000. Conclusion The convergence of technical indicators, favorable market sentiment, and the confirmation of the inverse head and shoulders pattern suggest a strong bullish continuation for Bitcoin. Traders and investors should monitor key support and resistance levels, along with market developments, to make informed decisions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by insidermike
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures - Same as for dax. Retest of yesterday’s open price and bears could only correct sideways and biggest dip was 5 points. Big bull trend line was support and we are on our way up. I expect 6040 and probably higher. If not tomorrow then next month. We have a perfect channel upwards which leads 6100+. I don’t think bears can even get below 6015 again. If they do, 6000 has to hold or we could have seen the highs. comment: Not much difference to my dax outlook. Relentless buying today, ath in sight and a decent channel upwards. Bears need something below 6000 to make bulls cover. Big bullish bias for me. Possible that we stay around 6000-6050 for November, to then do the Santa rally somewhere in December. Closing 2024 above 6000 would be amazing for bulls. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 6000 - 6050 (above 6050 comes 6100 in play) bull case : Higher lows and higher highs. Clear invalidation price given and big resistance above. I doubt bears can get this below 6010/6015 tomorrow. Only longs for me. If we stall around 6040, you should have a tight stop and from a r:r perspective, new longs above 6040 are bad. Invalidation is below 6010. bear case: Bears need something below 6000. That’s it. How likely is that? Look at the daily chart. Is there any bearishness in there? Invalidation is above 6050. short term : Bullish. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
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BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by Thief_Trader
Holiday Trading Plan Nov 28th & 29thNOTE: This trade plan is for the next two days. Both Thursday and Friday are half days for futures closing at 1pm EST. The NYSE is closed tomorrow, but open for a half day Friday. Volatility and volume will be very light and setups will be limited. The below levels are also for two sessions, which means they may be less precise than usual as I am basically averaging two days. I will post any real-time revisions and updates in private group as the day goes on. Plan for Thursday and Friday’s Sessions Supports: • Major: 6009, 5993-89, 5963, 5952, 5933, 5921, 5908, 5878-5880, 5850-55, 5837, 5818-22, 5802, 5773, 5757-59. • Minor: 6002, 5998, 5981, 5972, 5967, 5957, 5942, 5928, 5902, 5892, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5842, 5828, 5812, 5806, 5790, 5782, 5766. Resistances: • Major: 6025-28, 6045-50, 6069, 6089, 6112, 6121, 6134, 6152, 6185, 6195, 6214, 6232, 6245, 6263, 6271-76. • Minor: 6017, 6033, 6039, 6055, 6062, 6076, 6082, 6095, 6117, 6142, 6163, 6171, 6200, 6208, 6225, 6238, 6256. Context and Strategy: The market remains in a large consolidation base between 5993-89 and 6045-50, with numerous key levels within this congested range (6009, 6025). I am still holding my 10% long runner from the ~6002 add this afternoon. With the next two sessions being holiday trading days, do not over-trade. These sessions will likely have low volume, low liquidity, and a higher failure rate for setups due to the absence of substantial institutional participation. Most holiday sessions tend to drift higher, but this is not guaranteed. Friday morning could see some better moves, but my bias is to avoid entries until Monday and let my runner continue working. Key Levels to Watch: 1. 6009 (Major Support): This is the first downside test, but it has been heavily worked already. Unlikely to provide a strong setup without fresh demand. 2. 5993-89 (Critical Support): A retest here provides a safer long opportunity if bulls defend this level again. Look for a possible Failed Breakdown at this level to confirm demand remains intact. 3. 6025-28 (Major Resistance): This area remains a key upside test. Reaction here could determine whether bulls can push higher or if the range tightens further. Scenarios for Thursday and Friday: Bull Case: 1. Hold 5993-89: As long as bulls defend this zone, the range remains intact, and ES can build structure for another push higher. This could look like a test of 6025-28, a minor dip, and then a re-test of 6045-50. 2. Breakout Above 6045-50: If bulls clear this resistance, the next targets are 6069, then 6089. Further upside could extend toward 6112 and beyond. 3. Ultra Bullish Scenario: ES skips further downside tests entirely, flagging above 6009 and pushing directly to test 6025-28. A breakout here sets the stage for continuation toward the highs. ** I’d normally give a spot to add on strength but we have two holiday sessions ahead so this is impossible to do without seeing the action real-time. Bear Case: 1. Breakdown Below 5993-89: For a short setup, patience is critical. The ideal entry comes after: • A final bounce attempt at 5993-89, or • A failed breakdown of today’s low that fizzles out, ensuring the demand from this level has been exhausted. Enter short only after sellers flush below the structure’s lows (e.g., 5986 or higher), confirming that demand has been taken off the table. This reduces the risk of being trapped by a reversal. Refer to Edu Section for example. 2. Targets on Breakdown: If 5993-89 fails and momentum builds, watch for a test of 5963, 5952, or even a failed breakdown recovery around 5972. Be cautious as breakdown trades are low win-rate setups and prone to trapping shorts unless confirmed. Summary for Thursday and Friday: • Bullish Lean: As long as 5993-89 holds, the market remains in consolidation. This favors a move toward 6025-28, followed by an eventual breakout to 6069, 6089, and higher. • Bearish Risks: A loss of 5993-89 could trigger a deeper sell-off to 5963, 5952, or beyond. Short setups require patience and confirmation of seller strength. Holiday trading requires extra caution. Avoid chasing moves, focus on high-probability setups, and let price confirm structure before taking trades. Remember: Low liquidity can lead to erratic moves. Stay disciplined and prioritize capital preservation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Is SPX500 Poised for an Upward Movement?OANDA:SPX500USD Daily Chart Current Price: 5,812.8 Analysis: Falling Broadening Wedge: Upon analysing the daily chart, the price is forming a Falling Broadening Wedge pattern, which typically indicates a continuation of the prevailing trend. This pattern often suggests increasing volatility, leading to a potential bullish breakout if the price breaches resistance levels. Support Levels: • 5,703.1 • 5,625.0 Resistance Levels: • 5,937.5 • 6,015.6 • 6,097.0 Happy Trading! Stay tuned for further updates and insights.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SpicyPips
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-27: BreakAway PatternHappy day before Thanksgiving, everyone. Stay safe this holiday and remember to share hugs and love with all the people that are the most important in your life. Trading will be there tomorrow and the next day - always. Family, health, and loved ones always come before trading/work. Today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY. I suspect the SPY will still struggle near the 600 level and possibly REJECT into a downward price trend over the next 5+ trading days. The QQQ is showing a very clear Flagging formation whereas the SPY is showing more overall strength. Gold and Silver make a big GAP move higher. This is nice to see. I still believe Gold will attempt to rally above $3000 before the end of 2024 and Silver will attempt to rally above $35 before the end of 2024. Bitcoin is now moving into a projected consolidation phase. The pending breakdown phase may see Bitcoin move down to the $74k to GETTEX:82K level. Buckle up. Remember, we are going to have Thanksgiving holiday and shortened trading hours. If you have not already moved a large portion of your capital into CASH, you could be taking unwanted risks. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
S&P 500 Index Hits a New RecordS&P 500 Index Hits a New Record As shown on the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the stock index has reached a new record, surpassing the high set on 11 November. Bullish sentiment on Wall Street was driven by the announcement that Trump has selected Scott Bessent, a renowned investor and hedge fund manager, as Treasury Secretary. A technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reveals that the price is moving within two ascending channels: → The medium-term blue channel that began in August. → The short-term steeper channel (marked with black lines), which has pushed the price from the lower half of the blue channel to its upper half. → The decline from B to C retraced approximately 50% of the rise from A to B. However, how robust is this bullish sentiment? Two bearish factors warrant attention: → Rising Cboe Skew Index: Reuters reports an increase in the Cboe Skew (.SKEWX), a financial tool reflecting investor caution. Concerns may stem from potential inflation spikes, Trump’s tariffs, and other risks. → Possible False Breakout: The chart indicates that after setting a new high, the price turned downward (marked with a red arrow), potentially signalling a false bullish breakout of the previous high. The strength of demand will become clearer following the market's reaction to the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, scheduled for today at 18:00 GMT+3. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
2
SPY Double Top Triple Top?Possible Double or Triple Top on AMEX:SPY ? The SPY has been hitting the same resistance level of 600.80 for the past two days. First, on November 24, 2024, and again on November 25, 2024, before pulling back. This repeated testing of the same level raises the question: are we forming a double or triple top? Will the SPY fail to break through this level, or will it finally push past it? Only time will tell, but we should be aware of this potential technical pattern. Double Top Two consecutive peaks: Two highs occur near the same price level, with a moderate decline between them. Valley in between: A noticeable low forms between the two peaks, which serves as a support level. Neckline: A line connecting the valley lows forms the neckline. Breakdown: The price breaks below the neckline, confirming the Double Top pattern. Volume: Decreasing volume on the second peak and increasing volume on the breakdown.
AMEX:SPY
by Paul_Hodls
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-26 : Inside-BreakawayAs we move closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, I want to remind traders that low liquidity is likely to drive extreme price swings throughout the markets this week and next. Many traders are already "taking a break" from the markets right now - so please trade with CAUTION. Trade smaller positions and don't get trapped in anything you can't handle. The markets will close on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. That means we are going to go about 3.5 days with no trading into early next week. Are you ready for that? If not, get into a position where you can settle in through the holidays and relax. Come back to the markets on Monday/Tuesday next week. I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to reject near the recent highs (yesterday) and for Gold and Silver to move into a bullish recovery phase after yesterday's selling pressure. The one thing I would warn trades about today is the potential for a low-liquidity BREAKDOWN in price for the SPY/QQQ as well as Gold & Silver. If there is some financial (US Treasuries) or breakdown event that prompts the markets into some type of Flash Crash - everything will go down. I'm not saying this IS going to happen - but it COULD happen. So, be prepared just in case. Bitcoin is struggling to find any support throughout this downtrend. I suspect the $72-$77k level may be the final support for BTCUSD. Buckle up. We could be in for a wild ride. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
Wall Street Gains on Easing Rates; S&P 500 Key Levels &ScenariosInterest Rates and Economic Reports Boost Wall Street Futures; Asia and Europe Higher Wall Street futures edged higher in pre-market trading on Monday, supported by easing interest rates and a focus on key economic reports scheduled for the week. While the earnings calendar remains light, the market's attention is shifting toward fundamental economic data, shaping investor sentiment. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The price will try to touch 6022 and then will drop to touch 5970 if it can stabilize below 6022. Bullish Scenario: A decisive breakout above 6022, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, would signal bullish momentum, with potential targets at 6068. Bearish Scenario: Sustained trading below 5970 could pave the way for further downside targets at 5932 and 5896. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5998 Resistance Levels: 6022, 6068 Support Levels: 5972, 5932, 5896
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
US Markets Defy Tradition: Stocks and Bonds Rise Together◉ Introduction The relationship between bond yields and stock prices is crucial in understanding financial markets. Generally, bond yields and stock prices exhibit an inverse relationship, meaning that as bond yields rise, stock prices tend to fall, and vice versa. This dynamic is influenced by several factors, including opportunity costs, corporate financing costs, investor behaviour, and economic conditions. ◉ Opportunity Cost of Investing in Equities ● Definition: Bond yields represent the return on fixed-income investments. When bond yields increase, they provide a benchmark for what investors expect from equities. ● Impact: Higher bond yields make stocks less attractive unless they can offer significantly higher returns. ● Example: If a 10-year government bond yields 7%, investors may require at least a 12% return from stocks (including a risk premium of around 5%) to justify the additional risk. If expected stock returns fall below this level, investors may shift their capital from stocks to bonds, leading to a decline in stock prices. ◉ Corporate Financing Costs ● Definition: Rising bond yields increase the cost of borrowing for companies. ● Impact: Higher interest expenses can reduce corporate profits and cash flow, leading to lower stock valuations. ● Example: If a company’s debt interest rises from 5% to 8%, its net income may decrease significantly due to higher interest payments. This can prompt investors to reassess the company’s stock value negatively. ◉ Investor Behaviour and Market Dynamics ● Definition: Investor sentiment plays a significant role in the bond-stock relationship. ● Impact: When bond yields rise, many investors may sell stocks in favour of bonds, seeking safer returns. ● Example: During periods of economic uncertainty, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, rising bond yields led many investors to move capital into bonds, resulting in significant declines in stock indices like the S&P 500. ◉ Economic Conditions and Inflation Expectations ● Definition: Bond yields are influenced by inflation expectations and overall economic growth. ● Impact: Rising inflation typically leads to higher bond yields, which can negatively impact stock prices as investors anticipate reduced future earnings. ● Example: Following the 2008 financial crisis, low inflation kept bond yields down, supporting rising stock prices as investors sought higher returns from equities amid low yields on bonds. ◉ Historical Context and Trends ● Definition: Historically, lower bond yields correlate with higher stock prices due to lower discount rates on future cash flows. ● Impact: Low borrowing costs encourage corporate investment and growth. ● Example: The bull market from 2009 to 2020 was fueled by persistently low Treasury yields, allowing companies to borrow cheaply and reinvest in growth initiatives. ◉ The Role of Defaults in Bond Yields ● Definition: The probability of default significantly influences bond yields. ● Impact: Increased default risk leads to higher required yields on corporate bonds, prompting a flight to safer government bonds. ● Example: During the 2008 financial crisis, rising default expectations for many companies resulted in corporate bonds offering higher yields as investors sought safety in government securities. ◉ Recent Market Trends: A Post-Election Analysis The recent market trends following Donald Trump's election as President of the United States have been quite remarkable. Typically, when equity prices rise, bond yields fall, and vice versa. However, over the last month, both equity prices and bond yields have increased simultaneously. This unusual phenomenon can be attributed to investor expectations of Trump's economic policies. The equity market has experienced a significant surge, with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. This rally is largely driven by expectations of: ● Corporate Tax Reductions: Expected to boost corporate earnings and drive economic growth. ● Infrastructure Spending: Anticipated to create new job opportunities and stimulate economic activity. ● Deregulation: Expected to reduce compliance costs and promote business growth. On the other hand, the bond market has experienced a significant rise in yields, driven by investor expectations of higher inflation and higher interest rates. This is largely due to Trump's economic policies, which are expected to lead to higher borrowing costs due to unchanged or higher interest rates, causing bond prices to decline and yields to rise. ◉ Conclusion The recent rise in bond yields and stock prices marks a significant change from past trends. This shift shows how economic policy, investor feelings, and market forces interact, emphasizing the constantly changing nature of global financial markets.
SP:SPXEducation
by NaranjCapital
Custom Crash Index Indicates Global Markets Are PanickingI believe the global markets are panicking related to Trump's pending inauguration and the fact that the US Fed may have to keep interest rates elevated through a US austerity process. If you understand what this means, you'll clearly see why the US Dollar is trading above 106 and why Gold/Silver have moved downward recently. The process of the US moving into smaller government with potentially $1.?T in excess capital means the US would move into a dynamic BEAST of a global economy. Able to pay down debt, restructure government agencies to become more efficient and lean, while pushing global economies closer and closer to having to clean up their own mess. This is what I call the Predatory Fed.. and will likely prompt some very big price moves over the next 4-5+ years. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:XLFLong
by BradMatheny