Get started

S&P 500 (SPX500)

Market dynamics and Fed's role - Trump Re-ElectionRecent polls and market predictions have fueled speculations of a potential re-election for former U.S. President Donald Trump, with investors eyeing so-called “Trump trades” — strategies that typically involve a stronger dollar, reduced interest rates, and a preference for U.S. stocks over international ones. While these investments appear to be gaining momentum, there are concerns among financial institutions that they may have already reached their peak, potentially limiting gains in the near future. However, a significant factor adding complexity to this landscape is the role of the Fed and its influence on economic performance through its monetary policies. The Fed’s recent rate cuts, inflation control, and employment policies could have a decisive impact on both “Trump trades” and broader market stability. The Fed’s Dual Mandate: Inflation Control and Full Employment The U.S. Federal Reserve operates with a dual mandate: to maintain an annual inflation rate of 2% as measured by the Consumer Price Index and to sustain full employment, although it doesn’t set a specific target for the unemployment rate. When the CPI strays too far from the 2% goal, or if there are dramatic shifts in employment, the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate to influence economic conditions. In 2022, the CPI hit a 40-year high of 8%, prompting a swift response from the Fed. Contributing factors included the trillions of dollars injected into the economy during 2020 and 2021 to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, near-zero interest rates, and quantitative easing measures that flooded the financial system with liquidity. In response, the Fed raised the federal funds rate to 5.33%, marking a two-decade high. This aggressive policy adjustment has since helped bring the CPI down to an annualized rate of 2.4% as of September 2024, aligning closer to the Fed’s target. September Rate Cut and Market Expectations for November In light of these trends, the Federal Open Market Committee at the Fed decided to cut the federal funds rate by half a percentage point in its September meeting. The upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for early November raises the question of whether another rate cut could be imminent. Given that inflation is trending toward the 2% target, a further rate cut seems likely. Moreover, with the unemployment rate climbing from 3.7% to 4.1% this year, there are signs of potential weakening in the job market, reinforcing the need for the Fed to support economic growth before further job losses occur. Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the downside risks to employment have increased, which might justify additional rate reductions. According to the FOMC’s September projections, there could be another 50 basis points of cuts before year’s end. With only November and December meetings remaining, most predictions suggest two 25-basis-point cuts in each session. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool reflects a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next week, with a 78% likelihood of a similar cut in December. Impact of Rate Cuts on Trump Trades and Broader Markets These potential rate cuts have mixed implications for "Trump trades." Lower interest rates can benefit U.S. stocks in the long run by reducing borrowing costs for businesses, boosting their capacity for growth, and increasing consumer spending power. This environment would likely favor sectors central to “Trump trades” — primarily energy, finance, and certain defensive industries — especially if Trump secures re-election. On the other hand, if Harris wins, analysts anticipate a more balanced international investment landscape, which could weaken the dollar and shift investment attractiveness from U.S. to international stocks. Harris’s policies, expected to support environmentally friendly sectors and lessen trade tensions, may also benefit industries outside the U.S., including healthcare and manufacturing. Long-Term Rate Cuts and Economic Growth Outlook Looking beyond this year, the FOMC’s forecast indicates the possibility of an additional 125 basis points of cuts in 2025, with a final 25-basis-point cut in 2026. If realized, this would bring the federal funds rate to approximately 2.88%, nearly halving it from its recent peak. Historically, such reductions support stock markets, enhancing growth across various sectors by enabling corporations to expand with cheaper credit and improve profitability with lower interest costs. Still, investors remain cautious. Rate cuts are favorable for stocks only when economic conditions are stable. If further unemployment spikes indicate deeper economic challenges, investors could pull back, particularly from “Trump trades,” opting for safer assets amid heightened uncertainty. Preparing for Market Adjustments Based on Election Outcomes As the November elections draw near, markets remain highly sensitive to both political forecasts and the Fed’s rate decisions. While “Trump trades” show ongoing upward momentum, the potential for an investment realignment looms based on the election outcome. Investors are preparing for scenarios under both Trump and Harris, each with profound implications for the U.S. and global economy. In either case, the Fed’s monetary policy — and its influence over inflation and employment — will be crucial in shaping the investment landscape for the coming years.
SP:SPXLong
by kgougakis
U.S. Index Futures Eye Key Pivot Ahead of ElectionU.S. Index Futures Eye Key Pivot Ahead of Election U.S. stock index futures surged on Monday, poised to recoup some losses from a turbulent trading week as investors prepared for key corporate earnings and the final phase before the Nov. 5 presidential election. Technical Analysis: After pulling back from the Support zone around 5803, the price will touch the 5863 and then will drop again by stability under it. If the price holds below the Resistance line, it could drop to 5803. Breaks the liquidity Zone which is between 5863 and 5891 it could push up toward 5939 Watch for confirmation at the liquidity zone for a bullish breakout or breakdown from the support line for further downside movement. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5863 Resistance Levels: 5891, 5939 Support Levels: 5825, 5803, 5781 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5863 Bullish above 5863
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-29 : Gap Defender PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Gap Defender in Counter Trend mode. Even though I forgot to show you the pattern page in this video, today's video suggests the SPY will attempt to protect and defend yesterday's opening gap price range - possibly attempting to move a bit higher as I predicted. With Bitcoin rallying away from the consolidation range, I see this as a "move to hedge against fear". I believe Gold and Silver could make a strong move higher as this hedging moves across all fear-base hedge assets. Additionally, both presidential candidates support renewed legislation for Bitcoin & Cryptos in the US - so either way I believe the digital currency world is ready for US involvement. Right now, I see the markets as trying to make a "last gasp effort" at a rally into Wednesday. Then, I believe the markets will roll into a broad contraction phase setting up just before the election as liquidity vanishes from the markets. Price volatility should be EXTREME between Nov 1 and Nov 6. Play the next 2 weeks very smart. Otherwise, your lumps could be painful. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
Brief drop due to Electrions chaos, then back up a month afterI was checking last elections on 2012, 2016 and 2020. Seems that there is a brief drop before elections each time (5% to 10%) in the overall S&P500 (SPX). This year, seems that drop is not meaningful yet. Regarthless, I think going defensive this week to be heavy in cash. Then buy back into the market if price hits 5400 previous to Dec. It it do, I'll buy back 25% of SPX and wait if the trend still going in the direction to hit ~5000. If it do, might be back fully invested into the market to hope for a bounce back up signal. We can protect ourselves of a 10% loss if I get this one right OR we can miss 5% on profits if the trend keeps going up in Nov and Dec. Messy chart but I put my resistances and trends in here. Any thoughts?
SP:SPXShort
by lealvillarreal
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-28 : Top Resistance PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Top Resistance pattern in Countertrend mode. I believe this pattern will represent a moderate early topping price action in the SPY/QQQ - resolving slightly to the downside, then rolling into an upward price trend near the end of the day. The reason I believe this to be the case is because of two factors. A. The Countertrend mode suggests the top will actually be a moderate bottom in price (a pullback resolving as a base/bottom). B. The continued bias for the markets is slightly upward, thus I believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to reach new intermediate ATHs before we start to move into the pre-election downtrend. Gold and Silver will struggle today as both appear to be consolidating in a FLAGGING formation. Bitcoin is still consolidating in the Phase #3 sideways consolidation pattern of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. Everything is playing out generally very well aligned to my research and cycle patterns. Last week I warned that market price would likely be very difficult in comparison to my SPY Cycle Patterns and that traders should begin to move to protect capital. This week is the last week you have for any upside opportunities. You need to plan to protect capital (if you plan to) before the pre-election correction. I believe skilled traders will be able to move back into the strongest sectors at a 5.5 to 8.5%+ pullback just after the elections. That is a smart move if you can pull it off. Also, don't hold any Gold/Silver futures contracts through the 2-3+ days around the election day. Volatility will be EXTREME and unless you can take the lumps (margin calls), I don't advise anyone trying to trade metals on November 5-6. If you do, get in and get out QUICKLY. Here we go... Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
S&P sellers kick in, but the market remains strongLast week was marked by some selling activity. As anticipated, sellers took advantage of temporary bullish exhaustion and attempted to push the market down. A strong sell-off occurred on Wednesday, with the market losing 1.2%. However, this sharp decline did not see much follow-through, as the price found strong support at the top of the previous consolidation zone ( 574.7 ). On Friday, buyers even attempted to set a new daily high, but they were unable to maintain it through the close. All of this leads me to believe that the sellers are not particularly strong, and we remain in a broadly bullish environment. A few key points supporting this bullish outlook include: 1. The weekly uptrend is still intact, and there is ample room for this weekly higher low. 2. There is relative strength in "risk-on" sectors (XLK, XLY), suggesting that bullish sentiment hasn't completely faded. While we might see some short-term rotation within the 584.5–574.4 range, defined by two daily candle wicks (Wednesday and Friday), the long-term outlook remains decidedly bullish. This week, important economic data will be released, along with earnings reports from major tech companies. This is likely to cause increased volatility, but unless there are major negative surprises, bullish sentiment should remain solid.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
SPX500 H4 | Falling to 38.2% Fibonacci supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,807.01 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,760.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Take profit is at 5,881.22 which is a swing-high resistance close to the all-time high. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
Preparing For Pre Election Volatility - Stay Protected From RiskI wanted to highlight what I believe is the most likely 5 to 10+ day price activity and why I believe traders should immediately begin to prepare for extreme price volatility. I believe the SPY/QQQ will move into a very moderate rally phase over the next 2 to 4 days, then peak near Oct 30-31 and shift into a very aggressive downward price trend. That downward trend could evaporate 5.5 to 8.5%++ (possibly even resulting in a 10-14% downward price move in some of the most volatile tech sector stocks/ETFs). Traders really need to understand the risks of holding positions through the election vs. the opportunities of CASHING out of 80-85% of your holdings and attempting to buy back into those same symbols at a 5.5 to 8.5% discount on November 6-8. Think about it. Why take the 6 to 10%+ risk when you don't have to. Again, I'm trying to help you plan and prepare for what I believe is likely to happen. I could be wrong - we'll see. But, even if I'm wrong about some of my expected ranges, you would still be able to buy back into these shares at a reasonable price no matter what happens. Remember, a quick 6 to 10% pullback can provide a very good opportunity for skilled traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 : Multiple ways to draw triangles and bull wedges on the daily chart. It has room to go more sideways but Friday’s reversal was so strong an market closed at the lows, that I think many bulls have enough reason to be disappointed and will exit once we break below 5800 and then we will likely see 5750 next. Above 5905 I am wrong and this will likely be the leg to 6000. Quote from last week: comment: Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other. comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870. current market cycle: nested bull wedges and a minor triangle from past 2 weeks key levels: 5800 - 6000 bull case: 6000 is the target. Bulls now tried many times to break above 5930 but continue to fail. Same reasoning as for dax. Can the market find more buyers above 5900 next time we get there or do we have to pull back down to 5730 first? Until we see a daily close below 5800, bulls are still favored, since we are only closing above the daily 20ema. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears are printing weak bear bars and can not close below the daily ema. Pure guesswork as of now, which side will give up first. We will very likely get a bigger move next week, so don’t blow your account until then. If bears move strongly below 5800, 5730 is next and there it’s big decision time if we see 6000 or not. Invalidation is above 6050. outlook last week: short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000. → Last Sunday we traded 5906 and now we are at 5846. Most of the week was neutral, and we closed just 60 points lower than last week. short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed wave count
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wkALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wk Key earnings this week : Tuesday: Alphabet after close Visa Wednesday: Microsoft After close Meta Thursday: Amazon After close Apple Economic Calendar key events this week : Tuesday: 10:00 am Consumer confidence Wednesday: 8:30 am GDP Thursday: 8:30 am PCE index 8:30 am PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Core PCE index 8:30 am Core PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Friday: 8:30 am U.S. employment report As well of End of Month and Elections following Tuesday on Nov 5. Volatile week equals opportunity for day traders. Stay Frosty!
SP:SPX
by Beyond_Charts
$spx going to 11k over the next 3 to 4 yearsIm expecting the current bull to continue for another few years, with a deep correction in between now and the expected target of 11 k, by 2028/29... From there I expect SP:SPX to enter a sideways bear market such as the ones of 68/75 and 2000/2009 in order to form the 4th base of the secular run since 1929 (shown the comments). Bears always get it wrong, because of their self-delusions about the world and often also themselves! It's bulls who - due to their prescience and foresight - actually get to foresee tops in the market. Bears never catch a top, if they do it's either by coincidence, luck or something a four year old could have seen, like the covid top... anyway... we see so much madness in the ideas section, it's even fun!
SP:SPX
by LotusTrading20
SPX 500 I Two areas of potential long opportunity Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** SPX500 Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
SP:SPXLong
by BKTradingAcademy
2
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 25, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 index exhibited notable weakness by falling below the Mean Support level of 5818 and subsequently establishing a new Mean Support at 5798. This development will likely prompt a decline toward the Inner Index Dip at 5733, with a potential extension to Mean Support at 5700. This support level is critical for enabling a primary recovery and advancing into the next phase of the bullish trend. Furthermore, it is essential to recognize that achieving levels of 5833 and 5700 may result in a rapid upward price reaction.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
5
Understanding The Basics Of AI/Inference Engine ConstructionRecently, there has been a lot of discussion related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work. In short, without disclosing proprietary code/quants, I built an inference engine based on Fibonacci, GANN, and Tesla theories. Part of this inference engine is to identify the highest probable outcome related to the patterns. This is not rocket-science. This is the same process your brain does when determining when and what to trade. The only difference is I'm doing a bunch of proprietary calculations/quants related to data and price theory in the background, then the inference engine determines the best, most likely outcome. Take a few minutes to watch this video and try to understand the difference between static and dynamic modeling. Again, my objective is to help as many traders as possible. My Plan Your Trade videos are my opinions based on my skills, knowledge, and proprietary modeling systems/tools. None of my tools are 100% accurate all the time - nothing is. But, I do believe the quality of information and instructional information I provide is invaluable to most traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by BradMatheny
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-25: Rally111 PatternHappy Friday, Today is potentially the start of a moderate rally phase in the SPY/QQQ headed toward my predicted peak level near October 30-31. Although this week has had lots of rotation, we've seen the markets hold up pretty well. Tesla surprised with earnings recently after Boeing and other issues prompted a bit of panic selling. My research suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move a bit higher over the next 3-4 days - attempting to setup a peak just before the election. The 3-4 days prior to the election are likely to be very volatile as liquidity dries up. Traders need to stay keenly aware of risks over the next 15+ days - even after the election day. Whatever happens on election day, we are likely to see some moderate level of unrest and challenges related to who won. I believe the current election will be the most watched and validated election in US history. Everyone is watching for errors and shenanigans this time. As traders, our #1 job is to protect capital. That is why I suggested traders more to 80-85% CASH over the past 2+ weeks. There is no reason to be engaged in this market at full allocation levels when I expect the markets to become extremely volatile (and potentially prompt a flash-crash type of event). Remember, lack of liquidity means extreme price volatility. Gold and Silver are moving into another rally phase. Get ready to see Gold above $2800. Bitcoin is still consolidating - just as I expected. This is the time to play it smart. Trade smaller allocation levels and prepare to hedge against risk factors over the next 2-3 weeks. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Working To Unlock The 3-6-9 Secrets Of The MarketRecently, there have been a lot of questions related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work. I've often stated that these patterns are based on Gann, Tesla, and Fibonacci's price theory. However, underlying all that is a core component related to the 3-6-9 (secrets of the universe) theory. This video tries to introduce you to the concepts of the 3-6-9 theory and how it overlays with Gann, Tesla, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlesticks, and more. My focus for the past 24+ months has been to unlock this theory's secrets and develop a practical use component (code) that attempts to provide very clear future trading/price predictions. Spend some time watching this video. See what you think and open your mind to the concept that price moves through construction and destruction phases (likely based on the 3-6-9 concepts). At the end of this video, I share some practical knowledge/examples showing why I believe the 3-6-9 theory is critical to unlocking the true secrets of market price action. I may never be able to unlock all of it, but I'm dedicated to trying to unlock as much as I can within my lifetime. This drives me to build code solutions and attempt to improve my skills. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
7
SPX500/US500 "Standard & Poor" Money Heist Plan on Bearish SideOla! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑💰 This is our master plan to Heist SPX500/US500 "Standard & Poor" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich 💰. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing High Stop Loss 🛑: Recent Swing High using 1h timeframe Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Thief_Trader