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S&P 500 (SPX500)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-23 : Rally-111 PatternToday's RALLY pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will continue to push higher, possibly breaking upper resistance near $550/493. As I suggested in this video, I believe the upward price trend bias will continue into Friday (4-25) and suddenly shift into a BEARISH price trend/bias early next week. The May 2-5 Major Bottom cycle low, my research predicts, will happen and should prompt a fairly strong downward price trend as we near the end of April and head into early May. Gold and Silver will likely consolidate a bit over the next 24-48 hours. So, this is a great time to pick lower entry price levels for LONGS/CALLS. Ultimately, I'm still expecting Gold to rally above $3750 before the end of May and attempt to target $4500++ before the end of June. BTCUSD is moving into a potential "INVALIDATION" phase. Although I'm currently estimating the probability of that invalidation at about 20-30%, it is still a valid price trend. I believe BTCUSD will shift into a downward price trend as the markets continue to unwind excesses through the May, July, and October lows, according to my cycles. The big opportunity for traders over the next 48 hours is playing the upward trend bias in the SPY/QQQ - then moving into a mode of preparation for next week's breakdown/downward price trend in the SPY/QQQ. So, play it smart. Follow the chart and don't try to be a superhero. Play what is in front of you and prepare for the bigger price swings headed into next week and beyond. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5682.Colleagues, I think that the deep downward movement is over and at the moment I expect an upward movement in a five-wave impulse. At the moment I expect a correction in wave “2” to the area of 5100, after which I expect the development of wave “3” at least to the resistance area of 5682. There are two possible ways to enter the position: 1) Market entry 2) Pending Limit Orders. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
7
The SPX On Track To A New All-Time High In 2025 (6,958— Soon!)Do not let anybody distract you, do not allow yourself to be deceived. Know that the market is very resilient and this has been true for the longest time ever. The catastrophe that everybody is always expecting and is always due is never true. Ok, there was a correction, but that's it, from now on the market grows. That's just how it works. Very, very strong bull markets, and the bear markets weak and short. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) looks great right now and nothing can surpass the wisdom that comes from a chart. A chart cannot lie nor can mislead you in any way. The charts have pure raw data, you can make your own interpretation of this data but there are no mistakes. Here the chart shows a very strong higher low. The 0.5 Fib. retracement level was tested and it holds. Now, saying a "new All-Time High" might be speculation, but saying that prices will rise is simply how technical analysis works. A low first pierced 0.5 and challenged 0.618 fib. The candle closed above and full green, the highest volume since 2010 and that is a clear signal that the correction reached its end. The SPX is bullish now of course. The next week we get a red week and this led to the present day, a higher low. A higher low is bullish and notice, the 0.618 level is no longer relevant. The correction that happened was really strong, there is absolutely no need for more. So a strong correction developed and what comes next? Prepare for a major rise, a new impulsive bullish wave. The minimum target starts at 5,665. This is the resistance where the drop got started, this level needs to be tested based on TA. Depending on how this level is handled, we can extract how the market will continue to behave. » I will make a prediction, the SPX will hit a new All-Time High in the coming months. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
SP:SPXLong
by MasterAnanda
April 22st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** April 22st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** EOD accountability report: +325 Sleep: 3 hour, Overall health: tired **Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System** — 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 10:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 10:51 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 11:20 AMVXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (Triple signal) C+ set up 1:12 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Sell Signal (Double X3 signal) 1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 3:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (Triple signal) C+ set up
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by WallSt007
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-22 : EPP StructuresThis video highlights why the Excess Phase Peak pattern is so important for traders to understand and follow. Imagine being able to see into the future and to be able to plan/project price action in a way that is like putting together building blocks (or Leggos). That is what the Excess Phase Peak pattern represents for all traders. Once you understand it and learn to use it, you'll see how it presents very clear opportunities for you to plan and execute fantastic trades in any market. Fibonacci Price Theory, Energy Cycles, & The Excess Phase Peak patterns are really the core structures of price. Elliot Wave is fantastic for "after the fact" type of analysis. IMO, you don't really know how the EW count is truly structured until after the current major wave structure is complete (meaning you are 2-3 waves into the new (counter-trend) structure. Watch this video and try to think about how I'm taking the EPP patterns to learn to plan out opportunities for price based on STRUCTURE - not indicators or averages. This is how the markets work. Pay attention and GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
11
Smart investor strategyS&P 500: Percentage of Stocks Above the 20-Day Moving Average This indicator shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 20-day moving average. It visually reflects short-term market strength or weakness and helps identify potential reversal points. 🔻 Sell / Open Shorts Zones: Levels above 85–90% (marked in red) indicate an overheated market — when most stocks are trading above their short-term averages, a correction often follows. 🟢 Buy / Open Longs Zones: Levels below 20–25% (marked in green) signal an oversold market — pressure is high, and the probability of a rebound increases. Historically: Each strong rally towards the 4500–4600 levels in the S&P 500 index was accompanied by overheated indicator values (85–90%). Declines towards the 3500–3900 levels were marked by deep drops in the percentage of stocks above the 20 MA (below 20%). Conclusion: This indicator performs well within a sideways range and can serve as a leading signal for spotting local extremes. Currently, the reading has dropped below 15% — historically, this is a strong zone to look for long opportunities. I also showed the price of bitcoin at the moment in yellow. Best regards EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
INDEX:S5TWLong
by EXCAVO
SPY Plan Your Trade For 4-22 : Breakaway In Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests the markets are moving in a counter-trend mode and that we may see a Breakaway type of price bar. The current trend is Bearish. Thus, I believe the current Counter-Trend is Bullish. As many of you already know. I picked up some Calls off the lows yesterday after noticing a complete EPP pattern (Ultimate Low) setup about 75 minutes before the end of the regular trading day on 4-21. My opinion, overall, is that we are still stuck within a consolidation phase. But that doesn't mean we can't see the SPY/QQQ move higher (toward the upper consolidation high) or roll back downward (toward the lower consolidation low). I do believe we are moving into a moderate upward price trend over the next 3-4+ days where price will attempt to retest the 525-535+ level on the SPY, then ROLL into a top and start a sharp downtrend. This volatility presents an incredible opportunity for traders. Staying ahead of these trends is key to improved success. The SPY Cycle Patterns are fairly clear. We've moved into consolidation, and the price is very volatile. The Counter Trend pattern today may setup a 3-4+ day minor rally in the SPY/QQQ. But, ultimately, I believe the SPY/QQQ will roll downward into the May Cycle lows - just as I have been predicting for the past 45+ days. Don't get greedy. Play the immediate trend and learn to identify the EPP patterns on 5-minute charts. Today should be a very good day for traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance retest US stock futures are pointing higher after Monday's sharp selloff. Despite the bounce, safe-haven demand remains strong — gold hit a new record, and the yen strengthened past 140/USD for the first time since September. Donald Trump called for immediate Fed rate cuts, warning that the economy could slow without action. He argued inflation is not a concern, citing falling energy and food prices, and criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again. The US reported “significant progress” on a trade deal with India after talks between VP JD Vance and PM Modi. The roadmap aims to ease trade tensions and potentially shield India from future US tariffs. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5509 Resistance Level 2: 5660 Resistance Level 3: 5787 Support Level 1: 5110 Support Level 2: 4947 Support Level 3: 4816 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Plan Your Trade Update For 4-21 : Waiting For The EPP SetupThis video is, hopefully, going to help many of you learn to use the Excess Phase Peak (EPP) pattern more efficiently. For months, I've been trying to teach all of you to use this pattern to efficiently identify and trade some of the biggest price moves. Remember, price only does TWO THINGS - TREND or FLAG. These components are essential to the EPP pattern setup. First, price must TREND into a peak or trough. Second, price must pullback from the peak or trough. Third, price must move into a SIDEWAYS/FLAGGING formation. Forth, price must break away from the sideways/flagging formation and attempt to TREND into the new consolidation phase. Fifth, once the new consolidation phase starts, price will trend and flag within the consolidation range for a period of time - before... Sixth, price will attempt to break up or down to the Ultimate High/Low. This chart of the ES/SPY will show you how I used my analysis to "front-load" my positions before the Easter holiday weekend. I've been telling all of you the markets would likely attempt to move a little bit higher, trying to target 525-535 (if we are lucky). Then, price would roll into a topping formation and move downward towards my May 3-6th low (estimate). Last Thursday, I decided to throw on two positions to protect against any big news that may cause the markets to collapse over the holiday weekend. I picked up : 4 SDS CALL options @ $23 expiring on May 16 3 XLF PUT options @ $47 expiring on May 16 Both of those trades worked out perfectly this morning. I booked 2 of the XLF and 2 of the SDS for profits near 1030 AM PT. Lovely. Next, in between phone calls and loading up my car for a short trip, I noticed a beautiful EPP pattern setting up in the ES, and that EPP pattern has already reached what I believe to be the Ultimate Low. I tried to get into 2 SPY Call options @ $512 and held my breath to see if I timed the entry well. NOT. I took a $280+ loss on those two Calls. I waited a bit longer to see what price did, and after the price setup a base below $510 on the SPY, I loaded up on two more SPY Calls @ $510 and two SSO calls @ $67 about 70-80 minutes before the end of trading. The way I looked at it, I already had my downside trades placed from last Thursday, and I just added some upside exposure while my downside trades were profitable. I didn't know if the SPY would rally or not, but the EPP Ultimate Low setup suggested NOW is the time to buy. So, I kept both downside and upside trades active to protect my account overnight. The SPY rallied into the close, and I ended up making some nice profits off that EPP Ultimate Low. Now, I'm going to wait to see what happens tomorrow morning and try to BOOK my upside trades in profits while letting my longer-term downside trades play out into early/mid May. This is trading. The entire purpose of trading, like I trade, is to position for the best opportunities and try to catch the GIFTS the market throws at you as often as possible. Nothing is guaranteed, but price ultimately shows us everything we need to know. Watch this video to see if you understand the EPP Ultimate Low that prompted me to buy my CALLS today. If so, then you are starting to GET IT, and that is a very big step towards improving your trading skills. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by BradMatheny
8
S&P 500 Pullback Nearing End? Hammer + Elliott Wave Say Rebound!The S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is one of the most important indexes in the financial market these days , with the cryptocurrency market and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) having a strong correlation with this index . After Donald Trump suspended tariffs on 90 countries (except China) , the S&P 500 Index started to rise and seems to have managed to break through the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,094) and is pulling back to this zone . One of the signs of a reversa l of the S&P 500 Index can be the formation of the Hammer Candlestick Pattern , which announces the end of the pullback . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing a corrective wave that could be in the form of a main wave 4 ( it is correcting both in time and price ). I expect the S&P 500 Index to resume its upward trend in the coming hours, if nothing special is released , and to reach the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) and Yearly Pivot Point . If this happens, today's Bitcoin analysis could also be correct . Note: In the worst case, if the S&P 500 Index touches $5,050, we should expect a further decline in the S&P 500 Index and Bitcoin. Do you think the S&P 500 Index will return to an upward trend, or is this increase temporary? Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by pejman_zwin
17
S&P500 - The Correction Is Over Now!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting massive support: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Over the past couple of days, we have been seeing a quite harsh stock market "crash" with an overall correction of about -20%. However, as we are speaking the S&P500 is already retesting a major confluence of support and if we see bullish confirmation, this drop might be over soon. Levels to watch: $4.900 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
60
Tears of Liberty. Lets Make America Sell Again.Over the past decade, the U.S. stock market has significantly outperformed global stock markets excluding the United States. This divergence in returns has been one of the defining features of global investing since 2015, with U.S. equities—especially large-cap technology stocks—driving much of the outperformance. Annualized Returns (2015–2025) AMEX:SPY , S&P 500 Index(U.S.): The S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 13.8% over the past ten years. NASDAQ:ACWX , MSCI All World ex U.S. (Rest of World): Global stocks outside the U.S. returned an average of 4.9% annually over the same period Year-by-Year Breakdown Year | SPX | World ex U.S. | U.S. Surplus 2024 23.9% 4.7% +19.2% 2023 23.8% 17.9% +5.8% 2022 -19.6% -14.3% -5.4% (!) 2021 26.6% 12.6% +14.0% 2020 15.8% 7.6% +8.2% 2019 30.4% 22.5% +7.9% 2018 -6.6% -14.1% +7.5% 2017 18.7% 24.2% -5.5% (!) 2016 9.8% 2.7% +7.1% 2015 -0.7% -3.0% +2.3% Key Drivers of Performance U.S. Outperformance The U.S. market’s dominance was driven largely by the rapid growth of technology giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet), which benefited from strong earnings growth, global market reach, and significant investor inflows. International Underperformance Non-U.S. markets faced headwinds such as multiply choking sanctions and tariffs, slower economic growth, political uncertainty (notably in Europe), a stronger U.S. dollar, and less exposure to high-growth technology sectors. Valuation Gap By 2025, U.S. stocks are considered relatively expensive compared to their international counterparts, which may offer more attractive valuations going forward. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend): As of early 2025, international stocks have started to outperform the S&P 500, with European and Asian equities seeing renewed investor interest. Factors include optimism over economic recovery in China and strong performance in European defense and technology sectors. Long-Term Perspective Historical Context While the past decade favored U.S. equities, this has not always been the case. For example, during the 2000s, international stocks outperformed the U.S. following the dot-com bust. Market Weight The U.S. accounts for roughly 60% of global stock market capitalization and about 25% of global GDP, so its performance has a substantial impact on global indices. Conclusion From 2015 to 2025, the U.S. stock market delivered nearly triple the annualized returns of global markets excluding the U.S., primarily due to the outperformance of large-cap technology stocks. While this trend has persisted for most of the decade, early 2025 shows signs of a potential shift, with international equities beginning to close the performance gap. Investors should remain aware of valuation differences and the cyclical nature of global market leadership. The main technical chart for U.S./ ex U.S. ratio indicates the epic reversal is in progress.
AMEX:SPY
by PandorraResearch
2
Definite downward trend. Great buying potential in near future.Hello all traders and learner charters. As you can see definite downward trend. Some are even saying sell everything. I added the five year percentages, as you can see its not very promising for the moment, but definitely promising for anyone wanting to get into nasdaq or SP500. There are seldom opportunities like this. I would suggest to keep watching it, as a lot of people who rode the bull market after Trump call, have taken there profits and sold. This trend will force others to sell as no one wants to make a loss on nasdaq. So with that in mind, it will be red all over for a while I would say about two weeks maybe even more, but if you just keep on buying little amounts DCA dollar cost averaging, you will get some good buying positions down low. And then hold them for the next few years. This is a great opportunity. Good luck.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by patrick58
Long-Term Trend Still Intact for S&P 500The S&P 500 is falling, but despite the sharp negative moves in recent weeks, the longer-term trend remains positive. The uptrend that began with the 2020 dip is still intact, and it appears the market has used this trend as an opportunity to buy the dips in the last two weeks. If you zoom out from the current economic turmoil, the broader positive outlook for the U.S. market remains. U.S. stocks have become slightly more affordable following the recent selloff. If the U.S. manages to avoid a deep recession, this market pullback could create a huge opportunity for those who missed out on the 2023–2024 rally. However, risks are notably higher now, especially with the introduction of new tariffs that are likely to weigh on growth. As long as the long-term trend holds, downward moves into the 4600–4800 zone could offer compelling long-term buying opportunities.
SP:SPX
by ftdsystem
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-21 : Inside Breakaway PatternToday's Inside Breakaway pattern may not show up as I would expect. An Inside Breakaway pattern suggests the OPEN will be within the Body range of the previous bar - I don't see that happening today. The Breakaway portion of the pattern is much more likely to happen today with Gold/Silver moving much higher and BTCUSD moving slightly higher today. It appears Safe-Haven assets are THE THING right now. That would suggest the US Dollar and US-Dollar based assed would continue to fall (move downward) as devaluation and contraction in the global economy continues to play out. If you watched my video (posted late last night), you already know my data suggests there is almost no reason for the markets to mount a rally right now. The only thing I can see that would drive a big rally from these lows would be some incredible news that the world is immediately going back to somewhat normal in terms of GCB spending and Global Trade. I don't see that happening. I know there are a lot of emotions related to these Tariff wars and global trade. Heck, almost anything that goes on in the world right now is full of emotions. I urge all traders to STEP BACK. Think of the markets like an engine that runs on the quality of AIR, FUEL, SPARK, LUBRICATION, STRUCTURAL MECHANICAL PARTS, & INTAKE/OUTPUT CAPACITY. If you start to think about the markets (global markets) as a big engine, while thinking of individual economies (by country) as smaller engines, it starts to make a little more sense (at least in my mind). Every country runs its own engine (see the components above). If some of those components are failing, then that country's economy will falter a bit. And that faltering economy may put additional pressure on the global economy/engine. It takes a lot to destroy a functional economy. I mean A LOT. War, Total Destruction of government/law/society. Maybe even some type of internal conflict. But, even then, the economy will still have roots and will fall back to core elements. So, don't worry about all of these people telling you "the world is going to CRASH in the next 2 years because of Trump". That is highly unlikely. What is more likely is that the world will "re-settle expectations" related to future growth and output. Strengthening economies where needed and building up the core elements of global trade/economies over many months. So, if you are worried or don't know what to do right now, move your positions into CASH and wait it out a bit. There will be lots of opportunities for you to pick the right time to start trading again. There is no reason why you have to try to FORCE the markets to adhere to your wants (they never do that anyway). Just wait it out, keep learning, and plan/time your trade efficiently. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
8
Solid Q1 Earnings amid Tariff Turbulence Spike S&P500 VolatilityAs Q1 earnings roll in, Wall Street is digesting a rare divergence: strong fundamentals across much of corporate America paired with deepening investor anxiety. While companies are largely beating expectations, looming tariff shocks and tech sector fragility are suppressing sentiment—and returns. Tactical positioning is crucial at times like this. This paper describes the outlook for the coming earnings season and posits options strategies that astute portfolio managers can deploy to generate solid yield with fixed downside. Resilient Earnings Growth in the Current Season The Q1 2025 earnings season is underway, and early results show resilient growth despite an unsettled backdrop. According to a Factset report , with about 12% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far, 71% have beaten earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue forecasts. Blended earnings are tracking about +7.2% year-over-year, on pace for a seventh-straight quarter of growth. However, only two sectors have seen improved earnings outlook since the quarter began (led by Financials), while most others have faced modest downgrades. Forward guidance is also skewing cautious – roughly 59% of S&P companies issuing full-year EPS forecasts have guided below prior consensus, reflecting corporate wariness amid macro uncertainty. Source: Factset as of 17/April Financials Front-Load the Upside The first wave of reports was dominated by major banks, which largely delivered strong profits and upside surprises. Volatile markets proved a boon to trading desks: JPMorgan’s equities trading revenue surged 48% to a record $3.8 billion, and Bank of America’s stock traders hauled in a record $2.2 billion as clients repositioned portfolios around tariff news. Source: Factset as of 17/April These tailwinds – along with still-solid net interest income – helped lenders like JPMorgan and Citigroup post double-digit profit growth (JPM’s Q1 earnings up 9% to $5.07/share; Citi’s up 21% to $1.96). FactSet notes that positive surprises from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and peers have boosted the Financials sector’s blended earnings growth rate to 6.1% (from 2.6% as of March 31), making it a key contributor to the S&P 500’s overall gains. Even so, bank executives struck a wary tone. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that “considerable turbulence” from geopolitics and trade tensions is weighing on client sentiment. Wells Fargo likewise warned that U.S. tariffs could slow the economy and trimmed its full-year net interest income outlook to the low end of its range. Across Wall Street, management teams indicated they are shoring up reserves and bracing for potential credit headwinds if import levies drive up inflation or dent growth. Tech Titans Under Scrutiny Attention now turns to the yet-to-report mega-cap tech firms, which face a very different set of challenges. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet – collectively heavyweights in the index – have been battered by the escalating trade war, eroding some of their premium valuations. Apple’s share price plunged over 20% in early April on fears that new tariffs could jack up the cost of an iPhone to nearly $2,300, underscoring these companies’ exposure to global supply chains. The tech sector’s forward P/E remains about 23 (well above the market’s 19), leaving little room for error if earnings guidance disappoints. With Washington’s tariff barrage and retaliatory threats casting a long shadow, Big Tech finds itself on the front line of the global trade war, suddenly vulnerable on multiple fronts. Any cautious outlook from these giants – which account for an outsized share of S&P 500 profits – could heavily sway overall forward earnings sentiment. Market Context and Reaction Despite solid Q1 fundamentals, equity markets have been whipsawed by macro headlines. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory, falling roughly 10% since the start of April and about 14% below its February peak, as investors de-rated stocks in anticipation of tariff fallout and a potential economic slowdown. Consumer inflation expectations have skyrocketed with risk delaying rate cuts in the near-term. This pullback has tempered valuations somewhat – the index’s forward P/E has eased to ~19 (down from ~20 at quarter-end) – even though consensus earnings estimate for 2025 have only inched down. Notably, the high-flying “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks that led last year’s rally are all sharply lower year-to-date (Alphabet –20%, Tesla –40%), a stark reversal that has dented market breadth and sentiment. Source: Factset as of 17/April Investors are rewarding only the strong earnings winners: for instance, Bank of America’s stock jumped over 4% after its earnings beat, and JPMorgan rose 3% on its results. Such reactions imply the market is discriminating – strong execution is being acknowledged even as the broader mood remains cautious. Source: Factset as of 17/April Hypothetical Trade Setup Solid corporate performance is offset by significant macro risks, warranting a nimble and selective approach. While recent positive earnings may provide a short-term boost, downbeat sentiment and concerns over future tech earnings could limit gains. In this uncertain environment, investors may adopt a fundamentally driven view that the S&P 500 could rise in the near term due to strong earnings. However, the upside appears limited, supporting the case for a bullish call spread. Earnings release dates for the Super 7 With major tech firms set to report earnings in early May, investors can consider the 2nd May MES Friday weekly options. A narrow bull call spread offers a higher probability of profitability. In this hypothetical setup, the long call is at 5,250 and the short call at 5,390, resulting in a breakeven point of 5,312 at expiry. This position requires net premium of USD 315/contract (USD 62.5/index point x 5). The position returns a max profit of USD 385/contract for all strikes > 5,390 and a max loss of USD 315/contract for all strikes < 5,250. This strategy is most successful when the S&P 500 rises slowly. A simulation of this scenario using the CME QuikStrike Strategy Simulator has been provided below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
QQQ, Weekly RSI has reached oversold territory just 4 other timeIt's also came at or near a long-term bottom. If you're a long-biased trader looking for high-probability entries, this setup deserves your attention. The weekly RSI just hit oversold territory — something that’s only happened 4 times in the last 10 years. Each of those times? It marked a major bottom or the start of a strong bullish trend. We’re also bouncing near long-term horizontal support (~$420) and holding above a rising trendline that’s defined the bull market since 2018. If price continues to hold this zone and RSI starts curling back up, I’ll be looking to go long. Stop below $420. Reward-to-risk looks solid if momentum confirms. Not calling the exact bottom — just positioning where the risk makes sense.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by vladislav_xo
3
21/04/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $86,492.19 Last weeks low: $83,112.72 Midpoint: $84,802.45 Is the market finally showing its hand? After President Trumps escalation of the tariff trade war, BTC saw huge volatility swings in line with Tradfi, the panic led to de-risking and as a result BTC hit $74,500. Then after a small bounce another revisit of the exact same area resulted in a much more substantial reversal back up into the $80K's. A double bottom and rally despite the tariff situation ongoing suggests huge support/strength in that area on the HTF, I am now satisfied that BTC has closed the area of imbalance caused by the US election pump, confirming support. This event also coincided with SPX bouncing off the 1D 200 EMA. Since then Bitcoin has rallied back to the upper limit of the downtrend channel (see my previous posts on this structure) which also has the 4H & 1D 200 EMA placed there. For a bullrun to sustain itself these moving averages are important to maintain momentum, time spent under these MA's kill the bullish trend and weaken sentiment around the move. Last week we saw a very tight trading range of only 4%, that is compared to 15.4% the week previous. My theory was that this compression of price around a key area (4H & 1D 200 EMA + trend channel high) leads to a much bigger impulse move, the only question was in which direction? The minute the weekly bar closed BTC exploded above both of these MA's and out of the downtrend, so it looks like the question is answered when it comes to direction of the impulse move. The next question is, will it stick? I do find the timing of the move somewhat suspicious as the majority of Europe are on a public holiday, could this be a MM taking advantage of thin order books? the SPX pre-market is fairly neutral and so I believe tomorrow will tell the true story of where BTC really is.
by ProR35
3
SPX500 H1 | Approaching a multi-swing-low supportSPX500 is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,206.22 which is a multi-swing-low support. Stop loss is at 5,045.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 5,490.31 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Long
by Tradu