S&P 500 (SPX500)
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the preceding week's Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of Sep 27, the index adhered to the anticipated behavior by attaining the robust support level at Mean Sup 5700. This notable resurgence in the primary trend will likely prompt a robust bull movement toward the completed Inner Index Rally at 5763, with a high probability of surpassing it and progressing towards the awaited Outer Index Rally at 5840 within the upcoming trading session. It is imperative to acknowledge that reaching these objectives will trigger a volatile downward sentiment price action.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-4 End Of Week Wrap-upWhat a great week overall! My SPY Cycle patterns worked fairly well to target buy/sell zones 4-7+ days in advance and really provided some much-needed guidance for traders this week.
I've been getting emails and messages from many traders telling me how my research and SPY Cycle Patterns have changed their lives.
It sure makes things easier when you have this level of information about the future of price trends/ranges, right?
As we head into the weekend - let's take some time to help those around us that need our assistance. After the recent Hurricane, I'm sure people within your reach need a little assistance.
Remember, this is when we, as Americans, need to stand up and help fellow Americans.
Be safe, and see you on Monday.
Get some.
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Understanding Excess Phase Peak Patterns In More DetailThis video helps traders identify and understand Excess Phase Peak patterns in more detail, particularly in relation to current market trends.
Remember, these patterns are the constructs of all price action/activity. So, if you can learn to see, understand, and trade these patterns, you should be able to pick apart any chart - on any interval.
What's most important is for you to build your knowledge and understanding of price data. Price is the ultimate indicator.
Indicators and other systems are great to help you see and understand what price is doing - but PRICE is the real RAW SOURCE of all data. So, learning to understand better what price is doing is critical to improving your skills and trading abilities.
Hope this video helps.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-4 :Up-Down-Up Pattern (Counter)Today's pattern is an Up-Down-Up in Counter Trend mode. Thus, I expect to see and Dn-Up-Dn pattern today.
This pattern reflects today and the previous two days - as Down - Up - Down in range.
Overall, I expect today to be rather muted in terms of total range. Price should stay muted, sideways and drift downward overall.
Additionally, I believe the markets will be attempting to settle into support headed into dual base/bottom/momentum rally patterns setting up this weekend. I believe these patterns reflect a momentum shift that will launch the markets upward next week.
Gold and Silver will melt-upward today - likely attempt to settle the week near weekly highs.
BTCUSD is struggling to start forming a base near the 59k-20k levels. It will likely take 4-5 days for BTCUSD to actually build enough momentum to roll out of this basing pattern.
So, today is a day to prepare for the weekend and for next week's trading activity.
Sit back and take it easy today as price settles into the weekend's shifting momentum.
Get some.
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Don’t be misled by the initial NFP reactionAll the attention is on the upcoming release of US jobs report, which is critical for the Fed’s outlook on interest rate rates. But with so much going on with regards to the Middle East and oil prices, and given the weekend risk, the initial NFP-related market reaction may not hold into the close, especially if the data turns out to a bit weaker than expected.
NFP expectations: What to look out for
As we look towards the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, expectations are that the US economy has added around 147,000 jobs in September, a slight improvement from the 142,000 we saw in the previous month. Nothing earth-shattering here but do watch out for revisions for the prior months. The unemployment rate is projected to stay steady at 4.2%, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% y/y for the second month in a row with a projected month-over-month reading of +0.3%. If these numbers hold, it’s a sign that the labour market remains surprisingly resilient, and that might just embolden the Fed to keep its foot on the brake when it comes to deciding the size of their interest rate cuts. After all, the Fed has made it clear: if the economy stays strong and inflation doesn’t cool down, they’re going to ease off on loosening monetary policy slowly.
How will the US dollar, gold and indices react?
A solid jobs report could trigger a bullish reaction for the US dollar, especially if it takes some of the wind out of the sails for those hoping for another 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. The logic is simple: a healthy labour market reduces the need for aggressive rate cuts, making the dollar more attractive to traders. On the other hand, if the NFP report disappoints, then this could trigger a potential recovery in pairs such as EUR/USD, and give gold another boost.
Once the NFP dust settles, the focus will return to geopolitics and the situation in the Middle East. With the markets obviously closed during the weekend, oil, index futures and the dollar pairs could all create a gap at the Asian open Monday should something big happen between Israel and Iran on Saturday or Sunday. Given this risk, we could see the dollar finding renewed support later, even if NFP misses slightly. By the same token, indices may be unable to hold onto much of their potential NFP-related gains.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
SPY: 2007 vs. 2024 Rate Cut CyclesEconomic Indicators Comparison (2007 vs. 2024):
In both 2007 and 2024, several key economic indicators show notable similarities, suggesting the market faces comparable macroeconomic challenges:
Unemployment Rate (September 2007: 4.7%; September 2024: 4.2%)
US Inflation Rate YoY (September 2007: 2.5%; September 2024: 2.5%)
US Housing Starts (September 2007: 1.238M; September 2024: 1.235M)
US Leading Economic Activity (September 2007: 100.4; September 2024: 100.4)
US Existing Home Sales (September 2007: 4.5M; September 2024: 3.95M)
These parallels reinforce the notion that the 2024 market may experience similar stress as 2007 unless significant positive economic developments occur.
Overview:
The charts and additional data provided give a compelling comparison of two major market cycles: 2007 and 2024. Both cycles show striking similarities in market behavior, particularly surrounding the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We see a top in the S&P 500 (SPX) in July of both years, followed by corrections, recoveries, and rate cuts in September.
2007 Market Behavior:
July 17, 2007 - SPX Tops: The S&P 500 peaked in mid-July 2007, reaching new highs as the economy, on the surface, seemed stable.
-9.5% Correction: Shortly after the top, the market corrected, declining by 9.5% in response to growing concerns about the subprime mortgage crisis.
Full Recovery: The market briefly recovered as investors expected the Federal Reserve to step in with supportive policies.
September 18, 2007 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in September 2007, sparking optimism that monetary easing could prevent further economic deterioration.
Market Collapse: Despite the rate cuts, the crisis deepened, leading to a full-scale market collapse as the global financial crisis unfolded.
2024 Market Behavior (So Far):
July 17, 2024 - SPX Tops: Once again, we see the S&P 500 peak in mid-July 2024, a period marked by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.
-8.6% Correction: Similar to 2007, the market corrected by 8.6%, driven by fears of a potential economic slowdown and the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments.
Full Recovery: The market saw a brief recovery, as investors anticipated rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures.
September 18, 2024 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates on September 18, 2024, echoing the 2007 scenario. However, whether the market will collapse, stabilize, or recover remains to be seen.
Comparative Analysis:
Topping Patterns: Both 2007 and 2024 show a clear topping pattern in July, followed by sharp corrections and subsequent rate cuts in September. This parallel highlights the cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy.
Rate Cut Effects: Historically, the first rate cut has not always led to an immediate market recovery. In 2007, despite initial optimism, the market eventually collapsed as the underlying economic problems, specifically the subprime crisis, worsened. The question now is whether the 2024 market will follow the same path, especially considering ongoing inflation and potential economic stagnation.
Key Observations:
Corrections and Recoveries: Both markets experienced similar corrections post-top. The 8.6% correction in 2024 mirrors the 9.5% drop in 2007, showing that investor sentiment and market behavior can repeat under similar macroeconomic pressures.
Rate Cut Timing: In both years, rate cuts followed periods of market instability, with the hope that monetary easing would stabilize the economy. However, uncertainty looms in 2024, as it is yet unclear whether these cuts will prevent a deeper recession or lead to further volatility.
Potential for Market Collapse in 2024: While the 2007 market collapse was driven by the subprime mortgage crisis, the 2024 market faces different challenges, such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical instability, and evolving global trade dynamics. There remains a risk that the 2024 market could experience a sharp downturn if these issues worsen.
Global M2 Money Supply Vs S&P500So when we look just at the Global M2 money supply, we can see its increasing and sharply.
However, when you look at BTC, BTC is lagging behind, and the increase in M2 Global supply has yet to have an effect on BTC where we would expect to see a price increase as M2 money supply increases.
If you compare the M2 Global money supply against S&P500 though, it tells us a different story, where the S&P is leading and BTC is lagging.
Signalling to me a catch up in BTC is inevitable at this stage and its being squeezed at these levels as money flow increases.
A good signs imo and no doubt BTC catches up to S&P500
ES Setting Up Excess Phase Peak Pattern - Stay Cautious Today.This price volatility has setup some very interesting price patterns on the chart. Particularly multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns on the ES chart.
My analysis suggests the ES must attempt to find support above the 5738 level, otherwise the ES (and NQ) will likely attempt to move downward into the #3, #4 and #5 stages of the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
This short video highlights how to use the Excess Phase Peak Patterns for your trading.
Stay cautious today. Price is very volatile and it is likely that we are seeing capital react to external news (again).
Get some.
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ES Levels and targets Oct. 3rdThis week has pretty much revolved around one key level in ES: 5740, which has trapped shorts multiple times now. Yesterday, we saw a huge failed breakdown there. Targets were 5754 (hit), 5763 (hit), and 5773 (hit). We just had another failed breakdown at 7 AM this morning, pushing us up right back to the first target 5754 again and here now
As of now: No change—as long as buyers keep 5740-42 holding on dips, 5763, 5773, and 5780+ are still in play. If 5740 fails, 5729-27 and 5712 next down
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-3 : Reversal Rally DayOver the past few days, I've posted 4-5+ videos highlighting my SPY Cycle Patterns and how these help traders plan and prepare for future price action/trades.
Today's Reversal Rally pattern should prompt a moderately strong upward price move in the SPY/QQQ. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to rally up into the 572-573 range today - maybe a bit higher. The QQQ may attempt to rally up into the 487-489 range today.
Gold and Silver are working through a Temporary Bottom pattern today. This pattern usually starts with a moderate downward price move (setting up a base) and then rolls upward. So, I expect Gold to attempt to move back up to the 2680-2685 level today, and I expect Silver to rally up to the 32.12-32.25 level today.
BTCUSD is stuck in the Excess Phase Peak setup's downward (rolling base) pattern. This rolling base will likely take more than 2-4 days to resolve before we'll start to see BTCUSD move into the FLAGGING stage of the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
This suggests BTCUSD will struggle over the next 4 to 7 days before resolving into a moderate uptrend (the FLAGGING stage) - leading to a make-or-break price move sometime near October 15-19 or so. That make-or-break move could be huge depending on how BTCUSD resolves the end of the FLAGGING phase.
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-2 End Of Day Review.For those of you following my research and SPY Cycle Patterns, this video helps to understand where we are within the SPY Cycle Patterns (and also the GOLD Cycle Patterns) while providing context and information related to future trends.
I suspect the price will follow my "Buy Here" and "Sell Here" levels very closely, as this week's price rotation seems very clear.
Most traders should have no problem trying to understand where opportunities exist after the recent Harami and CRUSH patterns collided into one bigger downward sweep of price. Over the last few days, the Israeli/Lebanon conflict became a focal point, and prices reacted to this news.
Now that the issue seems to have passed (a bit), the markets will return to doing what they do.
Watch this video and post any questions you may have.
The rest of this week should be a great opportunity for skilled traders.
Get some.
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SPY is about to complete its blow-off topThe current atmosphere is of extreme fear. However VIX has not spiked as much as anticipated and a significant amount of assets are either completely oversold or seemingly getting ready to short squeeze (see GME, DJT, BTC). Looking at the chart, the top also seems incomplete. US elections are forthcoming, and global M2 supply is rising. I cannot currently see the bear case yet, but with the amount of shorts and puts that have accumulated in a panic-driven fashion during last week any upside move would lead to immediate and violent upside continuation.
Extreme R:R for those who dare.
Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
SPY 09/13Perfect followthrough, right on track for the blow-off top idea.
Stoploss and TP are approximate and not recommendations. Expect volatility.
Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-2 CRUSH Pattern UpdateThe SPY is searching and seeking support early in trading today.
I believe this attempt to find support will fail, and the price will continue downward, attempting to find lower support.
Watch this video as price attempts to identify direction and trend.
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-2 : CRUSH Pattern TodayPlease take a minute to watch this video related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and today's CRUSH pattern.
Although I expect the markets to find support over the next 2-3 days and resume the rally higher, today's CRUSH pattern will likely prompt the markets to sell downward, looking for support.
I've clearly laid out the rotations I expect for the SPY/QQQ, and Gold/Silver in this video.
I've also shown why I believe BTCUSD will struggle to move away from the $57k to $61k level over the next 10 to 15+ days. It is likely trapped in a rolling base/bottom pattern, moving into the Flagging stage of the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
The markets are struggling for direction right now, but I believe the outcome for the SPY/QQQ is still bullish and I believe Gold and Silver will make a very big move higher into the end of this year.
Bitcoin is another story. It is searching for support and may break downward if this Excess Phase Peak pattern unfolds correctly.
Get some.
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2024-10-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears tried and sold off for decent points but the close was not bearish enough to hurt the bulls or make them nervous. Bears are only able to get spike selling going but no or bad follow through. Neutral going into tomorrow since most daily bear bars have big tails below them. Bulls are still in BTFD mode and we could easily test the highs again.
sp500 e-mini futures
bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as shit are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730.
From my weekly update
comment: I promised an early breakout this week and we got one. Bears sold off decently today but the close was not strong enough. We almost touched the daily 20ema at 5725 and it’s more likely it will produce another pullback than breaking on the first or second try after such a strong rally the past 3 weeks.
current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge - minor bull wedge broke and we have the bigger one left)
key levels: 5700 - 5800
bull case : Bulls want to keep the market two sided and stay above 5700. They are still in BTFD mode and happily bought the first touch of the daily 20ema for 3 weeks. Their next target is to trade above the sell spike at 5815 because most bears will have their stop around that area.
Invalidation is below 5700.
bear case: Bears either keep it below 5780 or many will give up and will only try around 5800 again. The 50% pullback from today is around 5772 and bears stepped in again around that price. If bears can keep the 1h 20ema resistance, it would help their case a lot but they only have confirmation below 5733 and today they only got rejected big time below 5750. The selling was certainly strong enough to expect a second leg and a measured move could get us to 5670ish and near the lower bull wedge trend line.
Invalidation is above 5785.
short term: Neutral for now. I hope for a second leg but the 1h bars today were not good for the bears.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: US open was almost the high tick of the day. Happens not that often. Selling around the open was strong enough but most of the time you get an opening reversal. So overall very trick to sell this today while the spike was happening. Buying 5740 was profitable 4 times and the easier trade.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-1 : Amazing Harami PatternI wanted to create a video highlighting some of the success my SPY Cycle Patterns have had over the past few weeks and months for all of you.
Many of you don't comment on my videos but follow my research intently. I see my videos getting 250 to 400+ views daily - so I know many of you are seeing my content. And that makes me happy because I'm doing this to help you become a better, more skilled trader.
Yet, after the last few days of price rotation, and particularly today's big news day, I'm absolutely amazed that if the SPY closes above 750.45, we may end up with a true Harami-Inside price pattern.
I want all of you to consider something for just a few minutes. My SPY Cycle Patterns are built on Fibonacci and GANN technology, which attempts to map out price patterns in a matrix. From this matrix, I can develop complex lookup engines (an inference engine) that attempt to map the current price pattern with known data from the matrix.
By doing this, I can map out any construct or type of price action/pattern that happens within price—now, in the past, or in the future. And, with my complex inference engine, I can map the Fibonacci/GANN structures nearly forever into the future.
For example, here are the SPY Price Patterns for the first two weeks in November 2036...
11/1/2036 Top/Resistance
11/2/2036 GAP Potential
11/3/2036 GAP-Reversal
11/4/2036 GAP/BreakAway
11/5/2036 Break-Away
11/6/2036 Carryover
11/7/2036 Inside-Breakaway
11/8/2036 Break-Away
11/9/2036 WeekendGap/WeekdayFlat
11/10/2036 GapUp-Lower
11/11/2036 GAP/BreakAway
11/12/2036 Harami-Inside
11/13/2036 CRUSH
11/14/2036 GAP Potential
11/15/2036 Top/Resistance21
What amazes me is that these patterns are predicted more than 3 to 5+ years before the actual price moves.
Like today's Harami pattern, I'm amazed that my SPY Cycle patterns could attempt to accurately predict a Harami-Inside price pattern 3+ years in advance of it happening.
I don't know anyone on the planet who can do this research and attempt to accurately map out future price trends/moves/setups like this.
Watch this video and see why learning to use my SPY Cycle Patterns is absolutely incredible.
I'm going to work on a QQQ version next.
Let's go get some profits together.
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Understanding Warren Buffett’s Investment PhilosophyWarren Buffett is arguably one of the most successful investors of all time. Over the years, he has developed a set of principles and strategies over his career. He was inspired by the teachings of key financial thinkers like Phil Fisher, Benjamin Graham and Charlie Munger.
Key Influences
Phil Fisher
Fisher’s approach focusses on quality companies with long-term growth potential, emphasizing focused portfolios and long-term holdings. He believed in gathering information about a company beyond what’s readily available. His lessons on maintaining a focused portfolio and committing to long-term holdings are clear influences on Buffett’s patient, value-driven investment philosophy.
Benjamin Graham
Known as the father of value investing, Graham’s core principle was to buy stocks at a price lower than their intrinsic value, creating a margin of safety (MOS). This strategy helps mitigate risk and increase the likelihood of future gains. Buffett absorbed Graham’s teaching on finding stocks that are undervalued and buying them at the right price— definitely a large contributor of his investment success.
Charlie Munger
Munger is Warren Buffett’s long-time business partner. He introduced the concept of economic moats, which refers to a company’s long-term, sustainable competitive advantages. Munger advocates investing in businesses that can fend off competition and maintain profitability over time. This philosophy drives Buffett’s focus on companies with strong market positions and solid long-term potential, favoring these over shorter-term, speculative opportunities.
Buffett's Investment Approach
1 - Buy for the Long Term. Buffett’s strategy emphasizes identifying companies that can consistently perform well over long periods. He holds stocks for years, or even decades, often looking for opportunities where other investors may overlook value.
2 - Buy at the Right Price . Buffett is known for his discipline in waiting for the right moment to invest. His approach ensures he doesn’t overpay, instead seeking stocks when they are priced below their true value, maintaining a margin of safety.
3 - Buy the Right Stocks . Buffett doesn’t just buy cheap stocks, he buys quality companies with sustainable advantages. His goal is to invest in firms with strong business models that will continue to perform well regardless of market conditions.
Warren Buffett emphasizes investing in companies with simple and clear business models , ones that fall within his circle of competence. He prefers to thoroughly understand the operations, products, and long-term prospects of a company before making any investment.
This principle is combined with in-depth analysis of how the company operates and how sustainable its valuations and future growth prospects are. If a business model is too complex or outside his expertise, he avoids it.
He prioritizes companies with integrity and transparency in their management. He believes in backing leaders who are passionate, have strong vision and execution capabilities and who use shareholder funds wisely. Trusting management to run the company effectively, with efficiency and accountability, is critical for long-term success in Buffett’s eyes.
Investing in quality companies isn’t enough—Buffett also insists on buying them at attractive prices. He maintains a strict discipline of buying with a margin of safety, ensuring the price paid is lower than the company’s intrinsic value. This means waiting for opportunities to buy great businesses at fair prices rather than settling for fair businesses at attractive prices , which may not perform well over time.
Buffett has made many of his lessons and strategies available to the public through his letters to shareholders and partnership letters. These documents offer insight into his investment approach, decision-making process, and lessons from both successes and failures. There are several key books that capture Buffett’s life, philosophy, and strategies in greater detail:
Warren Buffett’s Ground Rules
The Warren Buffett Way
Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist
The Warren Buffett Portfolio
The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life
Each of these resources provides a comprehensive look into the mind of one of the most successful investors of all time, offering practical advice and detailed case studies of his investments.
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S&P500: Upward Potential!We still give the S&P more room and time to complete its turquoise wave B, which should primarily peak below the resistance at 5946 points. If the index breaches this level, we will have to assume that the larger green wave alt.(4) has already bottomed out. We consider this alternative scenario 38% likely. However, we primarily expect the S&P to fall into our green Target Zone (coordinates: 5110 – 4921 points) after reaching the upcoming top of wave B. This range is where the regular green wave (4) should be completed. Thereafter, we expect the upward movement to continue, with wave (5) finally breaking above 5946 points.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-1 : Harami-Inside PatternToday's video spends quite a bit of time going over the next 8+ trading days and why I expect the markets to continue to move upward - with the SPY targeting 595-605.
What is important to understand is that outside new events can disrupt my SPY Cycle Patterns. So, this new move by Israel to encroach into Lebanon may present some real disruptions in price activity.
But, ignoring that potential news suggests my price patterns will show price ultimately wants to melt upward.
My own personal opinion is the world has already discounted The continuing conflicts between Israel and these terrorist groups. I believe the world already knows Israel will do what is necessary to prevent further rocket/other attacks from these groups. And that's that.
So, I don't see it being a big distraction for the markets.
In fact, I see it as the natural order of how things must play out to reach a conclusion.
And I see the world's global markets moving higher as a result of these conflicts and the pending US elections.
Follow my research and ...
Get Some.
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SPX500 intraday dips continue to attract buyers.US500 - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 5714 resulted in all the initial daily selloff being recaptured.
Broken out of the channel formation to the upside.
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
We look to set longs in early trade for a further test of the fragile looking resistance.
Our profit targets will be 5785 and 5800
Resistance: 5780 / 5784 / 5800
Support: 5745 / 5730 / 5714
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The S&P 500 short term outlook is bullishThe S&P 500 ( SP:SPX AMEX:SPY ) daily chart is currently in a steady bull trend, with the price continuing to follow the ascending trendline. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, suggesting that the current momentum is likely to continue toward the 6000 area ( AMEX:DJIA NASDAQ:QQQ ) #stocks #Bull