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S&P 500 (SPX500)

2024-09-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - More continuation of the expected. Bears trying to get lower with some spikes but enough bulls are happy to buy it. We will have a breakout either tomorrow or Thursday because one side will give up. As of now I favor the bulls for another leg up to kill the last shorts. (does not apply to DJI for example, where we basically make new ATH daily) sp500 e-mini futures comment: 1h chart tells the story. Bulls buy every dip but are not finding enough buyers above 5790 to push for 5800. One side will give up soon and I expect it to be the bears. This is the last push bulls have inside the smallest wedge and it’s either breakout above or below tomorrow. Don’t over analyze 50 point trading ranges. Clear support and resistance and you have to buy in the lower third and sell in the upper one until it clearly does not work anymore. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5730 - 5800 bull case: Bulls are poking at 5800. Couple more times and bears will probably give up. If we get above 5800, I don’t expect market to stop there. Might as well do a spike to 5850 or so. Look for longs around the 4h ema which is currently at 5768. Every touch has been bought for two weeks. Invalidation is below 5750. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5750. They manage to print some spikes but no follow through what so ever. I don’t think they will fight 5800 much longer. We have almost daily bad news and market refuses to sell. Get the hint. Probably a gigantic short squeeze coming before we meaningfully correct before the year end rally. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Buy low sell high inside given levels but breakout will most likely happen tomorrow. Can wait for it and hop along. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5775 and selling 5790. Sometimes it’s not rocket science but still hard to do mentally.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD Makes A Big Move Targeting $2720Even though my Gold Cycle Patterns suggested Gold would consolidate a bit in early trading this week, the big breakout move today shows just how undervalued Gold really is. Yes, my Gold Cycle Patterns did not predict this upward price move clearly. This is an example where my patterns/expectations did not match exactly what price did. it happens. You could say my expectations were a bit behind the trend or the trend was a bit ahead of my expectations - but either way this move surprised me. Clearly, gold is making a big move and my upper target is 2710-2720. Today's move will likely stall out near 2685, then contract to levels near 2670-2675. Remember, Gold really wants to rally up to 2710-2720+. So, you have quite a bit of time to play this move efficiently. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-24 : Counter-Trend BreakawayToday's counter-trend Breakaway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move downward (counter to the current Bullish trend) and attempt to find support. I believe the downward price move in the SPY will target the 565-566 level for a low today - setting up a solid reversal rally phase going into the rest of the week. We didn't see much downward trending yesterday - so, today could be the day the markets attempt to flush downward a bit. I'm still urging traders not to overreact to this minor downward price move (potentially today). My analysis suggests the SPY is still on a path to target 595-605 before Oct 10th or so. Gold/Silver will likely move downward today - setting up a nice base before the next rally phase higher. The strengthening US Dollar will continue to put pressure on Gold/Silver - but I don't believe the US Dollar will rally above 102 at this point. BTCUSD appears to be rolling over into a consolidation phase. I believe we could see $60k to $62k before the end of this week as a base/bottom. Now if not the time to be foolish. Just sit back, time your entries, and prepare for the next rally phase in the markets. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
SPX: positive but mixedThe market was highly anticipating the Fed's rate cut during their September FOMC meeting, but the 50 bps cut came as a sort of surprise. This is why the US equity markets were traded generally positive for the week, however, in a slightly mixed manner, like without a final conclusion whether the 50 bps was a good or bad move from the Fed. The S&P 500 started the week around the level of 5.610, and reached 5.727 at Thursday trading session, however, ending the week at the level of 5.702. The index posted a weekly gain of 1,36%. The high rate cut was perceived positively by investors. They perceive that a lower interest rate environment will be supportive for businesses. Tech companies were the ones to gain, but also other industries. Analysts are now adjusting forecasts in terms of expectations that the S&P 500 companies will expand their earnings by 4,6% in the Q3.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Major Top Forming on SPXHello Everyone, a simple analysis of the RSI and current price action appear eerily similar to the 2022 peak. During the 2022 top we had financial experts and the media claiming victory stating that this bull market will continue, however we crashed soon after. Now the SPX is currently forming a topping process, this could be done or we could go a little higher before the bear market continues. It's clear that the SPX is making new highs while NDX and IWM fail to make a new high suggesting that this is the top. If this economy is doing so good, then why does the FED need to cut interest rates? The fed is cutting interest rates because we are either in a recession or we are very close to one. There is no such thing as a soft landing. The truth is we may already be in a recession and it wouldn't be declared until we are deep into one. If anything we are no longer going into a recession, we are going into a depression. Do not get lulled into a false sense of security like many others during the 2000 and 2008 top.
SP:SPXShort
by justaturboman44
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-23 : GAP Breakaway PatternToday, I believe the SPY will consolidate downward after last week's Fed rate cut. I believe the next move for the SPY/QQQ will be higher, but I feel the markets need a pause phase to settle before moving into the rally phase near Wednesday (9-25). Overall, I believe the SPY/QQQ and Gold/Silver will pause in early trading this week, then move into a continued rally phase as the markets digest the Fed rate cut. Remember, this 50bp cut won't translate into any real immediate move of 2-4%. The way the markets work is they transition into the opportunities created by the rate cut. That means we'll see technology and speculative stocks attempt to bounce higher going into October 14-15 - maybe a bit further. But, I do expect a wave of selling to hit just before the elections - so I'm warning everyone to stay cautious after October 11-14 as I believe the likelihood of a moderate Flash-Crash (Deep-V) type of event is very high. Right now, the markets seem like they want to settle and attempt to break away from recent resistance areas. This is more evident on the QQQ chart. Your opportunity to buy into lows over the next 2-3 days will allow you to really benefit from the next upward rally phase. BTCUSD appears to be stalling/topping and will likely roll downward towards the 58k to 60k level over this same time. BTCUSD needs to settle into the next low before attempting to make another move higher (probably very late in October - after October 25-28). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next direction. Bulls need a strong break above 5800 and bears below 5670. Quote from last week: comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5670 - 5850 bull case: We are trading around the ath. Will the market find more buyers to push this even higher? We are inside nested bullish patterns and bulls are favored but buying near the ath without a better pullback is not the best trade you can do right now. On lower tf you can find reasonable longs but not on the daily. I’d rather wait for a breakout of the smaller wedge and see where the market wants to go. I do think bulls can print 5800 and some next week. Most outrages target I have on sp500 is 6144 but I will only address this once bulls close a weekly bar above 5800. Invalidation is below 5670. bear case: Bears want the breakout below the wedge and test the daily ema around previous support 5670. If they are strong, they could hit 5600 next week but as of now the bears have nothing to support this but hope. Best they can probably get is some sideways around 5760. Invalidation is above 5810. outlook last week: short term: Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. → Last Sunday we traded 5629 and now we are at 5762. I leaned bearish but only if… If never came true since bears could not get a lower low all week. My read that above 5670 it’s a long, was good for 110. short term: Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None chart update: Only bullish pattern left and added an outrages measured move target.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Market Insights: Why Now is the Time to Go Long on SPX500USDThe S&P 500 continues to show resilience, and my overall bias remains bullish. Several key fundamentals support this outlook: 1. Cooling inflation: Recent data suggests inflation is moderating, potentially easing pressure on the Federal Reserve. 2. Strong labor market: Unemployment remains low, supporting consumer spending and economic stability. 3. Technological advancements: Ongoing AI and tech innovations are driving productivity and growth across sectors. 4. Corporate earnings resilience: Many companies are adapting well to the current economic environment, maintaining profitability. To capitalize on this bullish trend while managing risk, I'm utilizing probabilities in my chart analysis to identify optimal entry points for long positions. 12M: 2W: 12H: I’d love to hear your thoughts on this trade idea! What are your views on SPX500USD? Feel free to share your insights and opinions below!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Jasminex1x2
S&P500 ForecastingS&P 500 Forecasting: A Complex Task Forecasting the S&P 500 index is a challenging endeavor due to the multitude of factors that influence its movement. These include economic indicators, corporate earnings, geopolitical events, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Key Factors to Consider: Economic Indicators: GDP Growth: A strong economy generally supports stock prices. Interest Rates: Rising interest rates can put downward pressure on stock prices, while falling rates can boost them. Inflation: High inflation can erode corporate profits and investor confidence. Corporate Earnings: Profit Growth: Strong corporate earnings are often a positive sign for the stock market. Earnings Expectations: The market's expectations for future earnings can influence stock prices. Geopolitical Events: Global Conflicts: Political instability or geopolitical tensions can create uncertainty and impact market sentiment. Trade Wars: Trade disputes or tariffs can disrupt global supply chains and affect corporate profits. Investor Sentiment: Risk Appetite: Market sentiment can shift rapidly, influenced by factors like economic data, geopolitical events, and market psychology. Fear and Greed Index: This indicator can provide insights into investor emotions. Forecasting Methods: Fundamental Analysis: This involves analyzing economic indicators, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events to assess the underlying value of the S&P 500. Technical Analysis: This method uses historical price data and charts to identify patterns and trends that may predict future price movements. Quantitative Analysis: This approach employs statistical models and algorithms to analyze large datasets and identify correlations between variables that may influence the S&P 500. It's important to note that no forecasting method is foolproof. Stock markets are highly volatile, and unexpected events can significantly impact the S&P 500. A combination of fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis can provide a more comprehensive understanding of market dynamics. Would you like to explore any of these factors or methods in more detail? I can also provide information on specific forecasting tools or resources.
SP:SPX
by ITManager_US
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the current week's trading sessions, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated significant fluctuations, breaching the Mean Resistance level of 5648 and attaining the Inner Index Rally level of 5666 and the Key Resistance level of 5667. The index is on the verge of achieving the targeted Inner Index Rally at 5739. Yet, a potential retraction to 5620 in the upcoming week's session, with the prospect of further descent to the subsequent Mean Support indicated at 5552, could disrupt this progression. Conversely, an expected downward trend may be intercepted by the realization of a robust rebound to the Inner Index Rally at 5739, negating the anticipated decline.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Mid-Week Market Report: Post-FOMC Results, Forecast UPDATES!Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024 This video will cover the updates to the Weekly Forecasts videos posted last Saturday. With the Fed deciding to cut the rates 50 basis points, there was some volatility injected into the markets, resulting our targets being achieve! Also, we will forecast the SP500, NAS100, DJI, GOLD, SILVER, US & uk OIL markets! So watxh until the end of the video! If you like the video, leave a like/boost. I appreciate your comments, as well. I respond to all of my viewers. May profits be upon you. Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:BZ1!
by RT_Money
Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion Part IIThis is Part II of Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion The only reason the Fed lowered rates by 50bp this week is because the global markets are reeling under pressure from a strong US-Dollar and a strong US economy. Without any relief, the new POTUS would enact new policies and push them through Congress, and the US would start another spending spree—pushing the US-dollar-based assets even higher and driving the capital flow into USD-based assets even further. That capital flow is harming foreign economies, and global central banks have been trying to fight the tide of a very strong US dollar for more than two years. If the Fed had not lowered rates, we would likely start to see severe pressure on global central banks and possibly even governments/economies over the next 24-48 months. This is a way for the US Fed, and thus the US economy, from potentially being dragged into a global contagion event after 24+ months of reducing global money flow/function. Simply put, the US Fed gave in to global central bank concerns related to a strong US economy/Dollar compared to their weaker currencies/economies and the pressure being exerted by a decoupling global economy. Even though the lower US rates may provide some relief for the global market, the pressure on global currencies/economies may adapt to this "new normal" and continue to squeeze global central banks. Time will tell. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
FX:JPN225Long
by BradMatheny
Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion Part IThere has been a lot of speculation as to why the Fed lowered interest rates by 50bp. My opinion is the Fed realized the pressure of a stronger US-Dollar and stronger US economy, headed into the POTUS election accompanied with new spending/policy related to a new POTUS, could put the global markets under extreme currency/economic pressures. So, in order to provide more breathing room for the global economies, the US Fed decreased rates, taking a bit of pressure off currency rate divergences and allowing global central banks a bit of room to manage their economies against the 900-lb Gorilla (which is the US economy/US-Dollar). In short, the US Fed needed to alleviate pressure put on the Global markets because of the 900-lb Gorilla US economy. Not to save the US economy from an internal crisis... But to save the world from a crisis of their own making. A Global Credit/Debt crisis has been brewing since before 2008. The US Fed "gave in" and decided they had to decrease rates to reduce the risk of a foreign market contagion event (currencies/debt). In my opinion, that is the only reason the Fed lowered rates. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ECONOMICS:USGDPLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-20 : Breaking Up/Down PatternAfter watching yesterday's rally phase (which I believe was a relief rally driven mostly by foreign markets), I believe today's price move will be somewhat muted. Yes, today's pattern is a Breaking (UP/DN) pattern, which suggests we may see some type of volatility event today. But overall, I believe yesterday's big price move was a volatility event, and today, the markets will struggle to identify a trend. I believe price will struggle for direction/trend today, and because of that, I'm urging traders to move assets away from the markets heading into this weekend. I think it is better to move assets into CASH and prepare for trading next week. There is no reason to attempt to pick a position or trade heading into this weekend when we really don't know how the global markets will react to news or conflict events worldwide. So, the best option today is to try to identify a few early trades, then move your assets into mostly cash and wait it out (till Monday). I don't expect the markets to do anything besides consolidate below yesterday's highs. Gold made the move up to 2635-2640 today - perfect. Pull profits today and wait for the next move. BTCUSD is a bit higher today, but I believe it will pause - just like almost everything else today. The global markets are still digesting the rate cut. We'll see what happens early next week - but today will probably be a stalling/pause in trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
18
DreamAnalysis | S&P 500 Entering a Crucial Phase , Stay Ahead!✨ Today’s Focus: S&P 500 Analysis : We're diving into one of the key assets in the stock and indices market: the S&P 500. Let's explore what potential movements we can anticipate for the upcoming week. 📊 Current Market Overview : The S&P 500 has just swept a major buy-side liquidity level, specifically the All-Time High (ATH). This could signal a move towards lower prices, indicating a potential retracement or even a reversal. Additionally, there’s a clear divergence in market structure (SMT) between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (US100): while the S&P 500 has taken out its ATH, the Nasdaq has made a lower low. This divergence reinforces the possibility of a downward move. 🕓 Identifying Key Levels : Here are some critical zones currently present in the market: - PML : Previous Month Low - BSL : Buy-Side Liquidity (ATH) - SSL (EQL) : Sell-Side Liquidity, a key target for price movements - 4H FVG : 4-Hour Fair Value Gap, a potential retracement zone indicating an area of imbalance - SMT : Smart Money Technique, signaling further confluence for a move lower - BPR : Balanced Price Range, another zone of imbalance to watch for potential corrections These levels are significant as they represent areas where the price typically seeks liquidity, facilitating its movement toward the next target. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) also highlights areas where the market might seek to rebalance, providing further clues for future price action. 📈 Bullish Scenario : For any potential long positions, we should look to lower timeframes for a sweep of Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) or a tap into a key Fair Value Gap. Once this occurs, targeting a Buy-Side Liquidity level could present a buying opportunity. However, keep in mind that this strategy is riskier, as the higher timeframe outlook appears bearish. 📉 Bearish Scenario : Currently, the market offers opportunities to look for lower timeframe entry models to establish short positions. These trades would target Sell-Side Liquidity levels. Monitoring the Nasdaq for correlation is also crucial, as we want the two indices to align before executing any trades. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by DreamAnalysis