Update: GOLD, SILVER, NVDA, SPDR Sectors, SPY, QQQ & MoreThe markets are really struggling this morning.
The strong selling after the open is likely an indication traders are not buying into the hype right now.
NVDA earnings hit and drove the markets a bit higher into the open. I see this selling pressure as a BIG SHIFT into my Anomaly Event.
Gold & Silver are reacting to the downside.
SPTD sectors, particularly XLE (Energy) is still showing strong upward trends - while many of the others have already started to move downward.
I'm watching XLF and XLRE for a breakdown event.
The SPY & QQQ are showing broad weakness right now.
Prepare for my Price Anomaly Event.
Get some.
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S&P 500 (SPX500)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-21 : Harami Inside PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will consolidate in a Harami-Inside day type of price action.
In today's video, I highlight the continued potential for a price Anomaly event, even though we are seeing mostly post-election bullish price activity.
I do believe the proposed Anomaly event is highly likely headed into the Thanksgiving & Christmas holiday season.
Gold and Silver may stall a bit before attempting to rally further. Silver is not reacting similar to Gold, thus I have concerns that metals may stall a bit before attempting a bigger move higher.
BTCUSD is on track to rally up to $100k - just as I predicted.
Get some today.
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What do DJI, SPX and NDX have in common?Well the obvious answer is that they are Major USA indices and they also share some of the big players as stocks which make up their composite Indices.
My answer the Question...
The beauty of Trading View is the ability to combine all sorts of aspects of trading information together, whether it be writing new scripts, combining indicators or in my case combing major indices together in Logarithmic view to get a new way of future price discovery (for SPX & NDX) by looking backwards or left at price structure on the next highest valued Indice.
As we know A.T.M all 3 Indices are at A.T.H's so at some point in the near future there will be a move higher into new price territory. The question then is where is the price target? Where is the next resistance level when there is no price structure to the left on that Indice?
What I noticed historically about these Indices is that past price structure (major highs and lows) from the higher valued Indice (Mostly DJI) is horizontally plotted forward into the future onto the lesser valued Indice. Like looking left historically at an instrument with a lot of data for support and resistance levels.
Obviously with DJI being the highest dollar value Indice and it also moving higher past its all time high at some point into unknown price territory, we will have to rely on its own price structure for support levels or Fibonacci levels for clues about were price will find resistance levels in the future.
On SPX and NDX though we have a different story. As these 2 Indices move higher into unknown price territory with no price structure of their own to the left looking back, we can use the past price structure of the higher dollar valued Indice (DJI) market highs and lows to assess future levels of resistance or to find future price targets.
With SPX we will be able to use NDX and also DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance.
With NDX we will be able to use DJI to find future higher price targets and resistance.
Some examples,
If you pull up these 3 indices on a line chart yourself you will find that with NDX and SPX the support levels for the Dotcom and GFC crash's were DJI's historical price structure levels from 1961-1981. $731-$965.
If you look at SPX the present high and previous equal high on 01/2022 you will find it is mirrored in price structure on NDX 2015-2016 period and that the 2000 Dotcom peak is acting as a support level $4380 for present SPX price structure. NDX 01/2022
If you go way back in time to the 1930's Great depression market crash you will find the Aug 1929 SPX high $32.50 was in fact a resistance level which became support level for DJI back in 1898 and 1903 respectively.
The major past Cycle Highs on the higher valued Indice prior to recession tend to be the resistance levels for for future highs on the lower valued Indices. Or resistance levels that were broken and became support on DJI became resistance dollar value levels for SPX and NDX.
It is obvious that vertically this 3 indices would show similar reactions to market shocks but I'm not quite sure why horizontally there are so many matching price support and resistance levels.
This is a Monthly Chart over a 130 year period so the levels are harder to see and not precisely dollar accurate but if you use a weekly or daily chart you will see the levels line up very well.
So, obviously in my head I'm wondering what the heck is happening here exactly?
Some of these older levels have played out over 50-60 years into the future on DJI to the SPX and NDX, more recently the time frame is reducing to around 10-20 years.
Fibonacci levels also work on this chart going from lowest value Indice at a recession low to next business cycle high on highest value Indice.
Maybe W.D Gann could explain this accurately for me....Like is there some sort of Fractal playing out here or do the Wall street crew already use this method or is it the madness of the crowd echoing forward through time unwittingly expressing human emotion into charts of financial greed and fear? Who knows? I'd like to hear Traders ideas about this phenomena.
US DOLLAR - Let Me Explain My Bearish Thesis...In this video, I’ll share why I believe the markets are on the verge of a major downturn.
By analyzing the US dollar chart alongside Gold, the S&P 500, and Bond Yields, I’ll explain why we may be approaching the final stages of this market cycle for stocks and asset prices.
This shift could devastate the economy, setting the stage for the next bull market. While the extent of the drop will depend on market forces, I’ll explore how such a scenario could unfold. We’ve already seen Oil prices plunge to zero—if you think that can’t happen to other markets, time may prove otherwise.
This is simply a turning point, a necessary reset to pave the way for future growth.
This is not financial advice.
NVDA Predictive Modeling Outlook : Pre Earnings 11-20-24I thought I would have a little fun with my ADL Predictive Modeling system.
This shows the Daily & Weekly predictive results for NVDA prior to the earnings data release.
Have fun.
This is really just to show you how the ADL system works and to test the outcome related to NVDA's earnings/outcome.
Get some..
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-20 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat Down Pattern suggests the SPY & QQQ will trail downward a bit within the current #2 sideways flagging pattern. I believe this setup is indicative of a broader breakdown (Anomaly Event) playing out headed into Thanksgiving and into the end of the year.
Gold and Silver are also moving in an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern - struggling near a Phase #3 (sideways consolidation) range. This move will resolve to the upside if my research is correct, yet we could also see Gold and Silver move into a very large Phase #2 type of EPP phase (Flagging downward). This could setup a very large upward price rally in Gold and Silver over the next 60+ days.
BTCUSD is struggling to break to new highs. Although I see a confirmed bullish trend because of a recent new Higher High, I also see BTCUSD struggling to continue to make new highs right now.
Because of this, I see some potential for a breakdown if BTCUSD is unable to rally to new highs within the next 5 to 6+ hours.
Remember, price must always attempt to make new highs or new lows. Failure to make a new high means price must then attempt to make a new low. Failure to make a new low means price must then attempt to make a new high.
These are the RULES OF MARKET PRICE ACTIVITY. Once you learn to use/follow them, trading becomes a bit easier to understand.
Get some.
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S&P 500: Long Trade Targets AheadS&P 500 Trade Details:
The S&P 500 (SPX) on the 15-minute timeframe confirms a bullish breakout according to the Risological trading indicator . Target 1 (TP1) has been successfully hit, with higher targets in sight, as the bullish momentum sustains.
S&P 500 Key Levels:
Entry: 5889.16
Stop Loss (SL): 5872.22
S&P 500 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 5910.09 ✅
TP2: 5943.96
TP3: 5977.82
TP4: 5998.75
Analysis:
The price action indicates strong upward momentum with consecutive bullish candles. The moving averages align to support the trend. Short-term resistance at higher targets may see consolidation before further upward movement.
Outlook:
With TP1 hit, the trade looks promising to reach TP2 and beyond. Keep monitoring momentum strength and secure profits as each level is achieved. Stay cautious of reversals near key resistance zones.
Bitcoin Breaks To New Highs - $100.5K Is The Likely TargetI created this short video to help traders understand how Fibonacci Price Theory works using BTCUSD.
This move suggests that BTCUSD will attempt to rally above $95k and target $100.5k in the next trending phase.
BTCUSD broke away from the Excess Phase peak Flagging formation (#2) very clearly today.
At this point, there is very little downside price risk unless price breaks below $86.8k.
I also review Gold/Silver and the SPY/QQQ to help traders prepare for the BIG SHIFT into my proposed Anomaly Event.
Here we go..
Get some.
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2024-11-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Bullish bias still. The reversal was nasty and we had a very strong close. We are in a nested expanding triangle and if bears are strong, market won’t get above 5950. If bulls do, we go 5980 and the bear trend line next. I lean bullish. Measured move up from today gets us close to the ath and it’s the third try bears tried to close below the 50% retracement and failed. Good chance today was bears giving up and we melt again to a new ath. If we drop below 5900 again, I am probably wrong and bears taking over again.
comment : Nasty reversal and a good close by the bulls. Can expect follow through tomorrow above 5950 up tom 5980 and test the bear trend line. Above that we print a new ath. Best for bears would be to keep this below 5950 and then they have a chance of testing down to 5900 again. I have a heavy bullish bias going into tomorrow as long as market does not drop below 5900 much again
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5900 - 6100
bull case: Bulls want to test the bear trend line around 5980 and go above 6000 again. They do need to break above 5950 first, which could be resistance due to the expanding triangle pattern but I doubt it. They kept the market 3 days in a row above the 50% retracement and I don’t think bears are strong enough to try a fourth time tomorrow. Measured move up from today’s reversal leads to around 6036.
Invalidation is below 5900.
bear case: Bears had an amazing sell off but bulls bought it big time. Technically this could be seen as a bear flag, but bears would have to keep the market below 5950 for that. That’s their first target and then getting below 5900 again. Since we are seeing big time buying below 5900 and the selling was mainly due to news, I don’t think bears are favored.
Invalidation is above 5950.
short term: Bullish. Probably more squeezing late bears tomorrow and I still do have unreasonable insane targets above 6100 that could be hit over the next days-weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying 5855. Market printed a perfect inverted head & shoulders on the 1m tf, huge bull bars on a big volume increase. 3 almost too good to by true reasons to take the trade.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-19 : Top Resistance PatternToday's Pattern plays into the Anomaly Event I believe will continue to play out over the next 15+ trading days.
Today's Top Resistance pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move higher, attempting to find a peak, then roll downward into a decidedly bearish type fo trend.
My analysis continues to suggest a price Anomaly event is likely. I believe this event could be related to a financial or hard-asset type of devaluation event (a mini-crisis).
As of right now, we need to see how today plays out related to price trends. I would be cautious of a rollover to the downside throughout trading today for the SPY/QQQ.
Gold & Silver already moving into a very strong #3 rally phase - attempting to find the new consolidation range (forming the #3 of the EPP pattern).
Bitcoin has moved into a moderate bullish trend - but could still roll downward very strongly. Stay very cautious of this moderate upward trend until we get a more confirmed breakaway above the Ultimate High.
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The S&P 500 just hit me with a 'deja vous' - gains to follow?Once every so often I look at a chart and instantly get struck by a familiar pattern, which is exactly what happened today with the S&P 500 futures chart. And with asset managers firmly backing the ES1! futures market, I'm not on guard for a bounce form support. Just as long as Nvidia earnings allow.
MS.
GEX levels of SPX for Weekly Option TradersAlthough the SPX is currently trading within a relatively neutral positive gamma range, it’s worth taking a closer look at what the week might hold.
This week, SPX is moving between critical resistance and support levels, which are showing significant options activity. The 5900 level is the key CALL resistance, acting as the gamma wall for the next 7 days (7DTE) . This suggests that as long as the price remains below this level, it will face strong resistance in moving higher. If the market breaks through this level, it could signal a bullish breakout, leading to increased turbulence.
🟨 DETAILED VIEW:
In case of a breakout, keep an eye on the second weaker CALL wall at 5925 and the third weaker CALL wall at 5940, which are the next potential resistance levels once the market moves past the 5900 gamma wall. These levels could play a pivotal role in the price’s upward movement and indicate further buying pressure.
🔶 HVL Level and Gamma Environment: 5830
The 5830 level represents the High Volatility Level (HVL), which determines whether we are in a positive or negative gamma environment. If SPX closes below this level, we enter the negative gamma zone, which could lead to increased market volatility. This could result in sharper price movements during the week if this level does not hold. In that case, the PUT supports come into focus.
The 5750 level marks the strongest PUT support, providing substantial downward support for the market. However, before reaching this level, it’s important to consider the emerging PUT wall at 5765, which may stop the price from falling lower. This could act as an intermediate support, slowing or even halting a decline before the 5750 level comes into play.
🔶 Implied Volatility and Time-Based Strategic Opportunities NOW
The decrease in implied volatility, as shown by the IV and IVx indicators, signals a calmer market environment. Based on IV rank and average IV levels, volatility is running lower, which presents good opportunities for various spread strategies, especially time spreads that can be optimized between the 11/01 and 11/04 time frame.
Key levels above could fuel further market movement throughout the week if a breakout occurs. CALL/PUT gamma levels on the options chain strongly outline the potential resistance and support levels, but these levels can change dynamically, especially if SPX breaks through the 5900 level.
🔶 SPX Key Levels This Week:
5900 CALL resistance – Main gamma wall, strong resistance.
5925 and 5940 – Second and third weaker CALL walls, offering additional resistance if broken.
5830 HVL – Key level determining the gamma environment.
5765 PUT wall – Emerging intermediate PUT support, which could slow a decline.
5750 PUT support – Strongest PUT gamma wall and support.
Keep these levels in mind throughout the week, as they will likely influence market movements and the volatility environment. By applying the right options strategies, this information can help you structure profitable positions.
ES levels and targets Nov 18thOn Thursday, sellers broke down the base built from Monday to Thursday at 5998, triggering shorts and hitting the 5885 target on Friday. Now, it’s staging its first relief pop before potentially heading lower.
As of now: As long as 5886-88 holds, a relief pop to 5910, 5917, and 5934 is possible. If 5886 fails, look for a dip to 5878, 5871, 5864.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video for 11-18: No INTERNET IssueMorning guys.
Something odd happened today after I created a great 45-minute morning video.
TradingView reported an Internet Issue even though my internet was working perfectly???
So, I DOWNLOADED the video so I have a record of it and posted it up elsewhere.
I don't know what to say - except check my profile on TradingView.
I was not going to try to replicate my 45 minute recording after experiencing this issue.
Get Some.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Your Trading Plan Explained
S&P500 index is testing a recently broken daily horizontal resistance.
With a high probability, it turned into support.
To buy the market with a confirmation, pay attention to a double bottom
pattern on a 4H.
If the price breaks and closes above 5899, it will give us a strong bullish confirmation.
The market will go up at least to 5954 level then.
If the price drops lower and sets a new lower low, the setup will be invalid.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
S&P Weekly Recap: Rally Falters Amid Lack of ConvictionLast week’s market action delivered a reversal in sentiment, highlighting the fragility of the rally that had persisted since the so-called "Trump rally." The week began slowly, with the market testing buyers’ conviction to push prices higher. After confirming a lack of such conviction, sellers stepped in, driving prices sharply lower. As suggested in my previous recap, 585 (VAH) provided temporary support, and the week closed near this critical level.
Interestingly, most major sectors participated in the downward move, aligning with the broader market trend. However, XLF (Financials) stood out as the exception, managing to post gains despite the sell-off. This divergence suggests that there is still buying interest, with money continuing to flow selectively into the market.
The immediate objective for the bulls is to hold 585 and attempt to fill Friday’s gap. Failure to do so, with the price returning to the 568-585 range , would indicate that the rally is nearing exhaustion. While this would not immediately signal a transition into a bear market, it would mark a notable shift in sentiment. The 568 level remains critical for buyers; as long as it holds, the broader uptrend stays intact, and bulls maintain the upper hand. Meaning that I keep "bullish" outlook.
This week, the market’s attention will be on NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday. While the previous report didn’t cause much volatility, traders will be closely watching for any surprises that could influence market momentum.
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Nov 17th—> Nov 22th)SPX - Powell changed his narrative on rate cuts, He came out and said he doesn't expect any rate cuts next month because economy is strong and inflation is starting to tick up again. Market started to decline due to new narrative because small businesses desperately needs rate cuts and cheaper loans.
Next resistance: 6,003 and 6,017
Next support: 5,773 followed by 5,640
Weekly Sentiment: Bearish
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Neutral until bulls come around or bears get below 5800. This pullback is too good for bulls not to buy and I have no interest in selling this. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell. Of course this can fail and bears are doing the real deal here. Therefore I wait for confirmation but bias is bullish.
Quote from last week:
comment: Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730.
comment: 50% retracement hit and market closed above it on Friday. My preferred path for next week is a huge bull reversal higher. Is this likely after 2 strong bear days? No it’s not, so I have to wait for either side to show a clear new direction or continuation. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play)
bull case: I do think bulls have to reverse big time from 5877 or risk dropping down to 5800 on Monday. If Monday goes strongly above 5930, we will likely print 6000 the same day or Tuesday. First target for the bulls is a close above the 1h 20ema around 5920 and then 5950. Above we will see acceleration upwards.
Invalidation is below 5860ish.
bear case: Bears had a big surprise follow through day on Friday and if they can keep the momentum up, this trend is in serious question. Below 5860 we will accelerate down to 5800 and the bull trend line. I highly doubt that if we print 5800 before 6100, that we will see prices above 6000 for a long time.
Invalidation is above 5950.
outlook last week:
short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now.
→ Last Sunday we traded 6025 and now we are at 5896. Bad outlook. Bad.
short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Moved 50% retracement up, based on the recent bull leg.
S&P Hits All-Time Highs: Reversal Incoming?The S&P has hit an all-time high, breaking previous records. However, the chart suggests a potential reversal as it struggles to break the resistance at the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($6,019.68). Currently, the S&P is holding at the support level of $5,862.46. To maintain its bullish momentum, it must stay above this support. If it fails, the next support level is $5,772.72. A breakdown below these levels could trigger a broader market decline.
This analysis is for educational purposes, and I hope the TradingView moderators respect that. My goal is to educate and build a strong community, providing transparent insights into the stock market. If you find this content valuable, please hit the like button. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments I'm happy to help. Thank you!