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S&P 500 (SPX500)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Sept 10 : Consolidation CarryoverToday will likely be similar to yesterday - but slightly more consolidated overall. I belive the markets are struggling into a dual Excess Phase Peak Flag (Step #2) and the SPY/QQQ show this very clearly. This dual Excess Phase Peak pattern will result in either a breakdown in price (starting after Sept 20th or so) or a continued rally phase breaching the Unique & Ultimate Fibonacci High price levels. Ultimately, I believe the breakdown potential is higher at this point than the continued rally phase. That is why I'm asking traders to prepare for a top near Sept 20-25 and to move assets into CASH as we melt upward over the next 5+ days. If my research is correct, the second Excess Phase Peak pattern will prompt a breakdown in price - resulting in an attempt to find support above recent (60-90 day) lows. And that will reflect a -9-14% drawdown in price. If I'm wrong and we don't see this breakdown in price, then we'll see price struggle to move higher and eventually break the recent ATH levels. Watch this video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak patterns setup. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
SPX500 H4 | Overlap resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,520.41 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,580.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 5,388.72 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
US30 | Trade ideaKey Points: Tesla: Shares fell 1.6% after a report that the company plans to produce a six-seat Model Y in China by late 2025. Boeing: Dropped 7.3% following a downgrade from Wells Fargo to "underweight" from "equal weight." Nvidia: Slumped nearly 10%, wiping out a record $279 billion in market value, marking the largest single-day decline for a U.S. company. U.S. Manufacturing: Edged up in August from an eight-month low but remained subdued, according to ISM data. Market Performance: S&P 500 fell 2.1% Nasdaq dropped 3.3% Dow declined 1.5% This marks the biggest daily percentage decline for these indexes since early August. Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors fell, with technology, energy, communication services, and materials leading the decline. Market Sentiment: Weakened amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, with September being historically one of the worst months for stock market performance. Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 33.2% to 20.72, the highest close since early August. Trading Volume: Totaled 12.14 billion shares across U.S. exchanges, above the 20-day moving average of nearly 11 billion. Labor Market: Traders are awaiting labor market reports ahead of the August non-farm payrolls data. Fed Meeting: Scheduled for Sept. 17-18, with a 63% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut and a 37% chance of a 50-basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Market Breadth: On the NYSE, declining issues outnumbered advancers by 2.52-to-1, while on the Nasdaq, decliners outnumbered advancers by 3.5-to-1.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Short
by DynamicCapital-FX
2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is valid so far. Big red box is the open bear gap on the daily chart. 5500 would be a very good place for the bears to step in and make it resistance. I expect 5462 to be tested tomorrow and hopefully 5400 also. Odds favor the bears as long as we stay below 5540. current market cycle: trading range - if we drop below 5390, we are in a bear trend inside the big trading range. key levels: 5400 -5540 bull case: Bulls had a decent pullback today but it was still an inside bar. They need follow through and prices above 5540 to make more bears cover their shorts. Bulls had 3 good legs up today but bears were equally strong. Most of the move upwards was during the Globex session. Until bulls break strongly above 5500, they don’t have many arguments on their side. Invalidation is below 5460. bear case: Bears sold the rips today and kept the market mostly in balance around the open price 5462. They need to step in to keep the market below the current bear trend line and the 4h ema. Since we have formed a triangle, market is in balance between 5450-5500. The higher time frames support the bears for a second leg down. For tomorrow I expect the triangle to continue some more until we get a breakout and odds favor the bears. I think 5500 is a decent place to short with SL 5540 or 5560. Invalidation is above 5540. short term: Bearish as long as we stay below 5540. I want at least a retest of the lows 5400 but I hope for a bigger second leg down to 5000/5100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Not yet. Will watch tomorrow’s price action and short on weakness. trade of the day: Longing 5450 was good all day and shorting above 5480. Looks way easier on the 15m tf than it was. Almost always is.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Dell Triumphant Return to the S&P 500: What’s Driving the Rally?Dell Technologies (NYSE: NYSE:DELL ) has made headlines with its upcoming re-inclusion in the S&P 500 Index, effective September 23. This marks a significant milestone for the tech giant, which was previously part of the S&P 500 from 1996 until 2013 before going private. The announcement has sent Dell’s stock price soaring, with shares jumping 6.1% in premarket trading on Monday. The re-entry into the S&P 500 is more than just symbolic; it represents renewed market confidence and a bright outlook for the company’s future. Strong Market Position and Growth Drivers Dell’s re-inclusion in the S&P 500 is not just about index rebalancing; it signals a broader positive trajectory fueled by several key factors. According to analysts at Citi Research, Dell’s fundamentals are strong, and the company is positioned to capitalize on multiple growth levers, making it a compelling buy. 1. Recovery in Enterprise Infrastructure Demand: Dell’s enterprise hardware products, including servers and storage solutions, are expected to benefit as businesses reinvest in critical infrastructure. After a period of constrained IT spending, Dell stands ready to capture significant market share as economic conditions improve. 2. PC Refresh Cycle: Dell is poised to gain from an upcoming global PC refresh cycle, expected to drive demand into 2025. As businesses and households upgrade aging PC systems, Dell’s personal computing segment is set to experience substantial sales growth. This cycle represents a critical growth driver for Dell’s core business. 3. AI Momentum: Dell’s focus on AI solutions positions it as a key player in the rapidly expanding AI market. As companies increasingly adopt AI workloads that require robust compute and storage resources, Dell’s expanding AI product portfolio could lead to significant revenue growth. The company’s expertise in providing the necessary hardware for AI applications aligns perfectly with emerging market needs. 4. Capital Returns and Valuation: Citi has set a target price of $160 for Dell, based on a 9.8x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to projected earnings over the next 24 months. This valuation reflects the company’s ability to execute and capitalize on growth opportunities. Compared to peers in the large enterprise hardware sector, Dell’s valuation strikes a balance that reflects both potential upside and inherent risks. 5. Challenges to Watch: While the outlook is positive, Dell faces challenges, including competition from hyperscalers and cloud computing solutions that pressure traditional enterprise hardware demand. The evolving landscape of cloud-enabled infrastructure and potential delays in the PC refresh cycle could impact Dell’s near-term growth prospects. Additionally, there is uncertainty around the pace at which Dell’s AI backlog will convert into tangible revenue. Technical Outlook Currently, Dell stock is up 4.48%, trading with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 4.83%, which suggests room for further growth. 1. Bullish Flag Pattern: Dell’s daily price chart shows a bullish flag pattern, a continuation formation that signals a potential upward breakout. If the stock price reaches the $150 pivot point, it would confirm a bullish reversal, setting the stage for a sustained rally. 2. Support and Resistance Levels: Dell is trading just below its 200-day moving average, a key resistance level. A decisive break above this level would reinforce the bullish trend and attract further buying interest. 3. Volume and Momentum Indicators: Increased trading volume accompanying the recent price surge adds conviction to the bullish outlook. Momentum indicators suggest that Dell is on the cusp of a significant move higher, particularly with the backdrop of strong fundamentals and market sentiment. Looking Ahead Dell’s upcoming S&P 500 re-inclusion, combined with its strategic positioning in key growth areas, presents a compelling case for investors. The company’s ability to navigate the complexities of the evolving enterprise hardware market while capitalizing on the AI boom and PC upgrade cycle underpins its long-term growth potential. While challenges remain, Dell’s re-entry into the S&P 500 is a testament to its resilience and strategic execution. With strong fundamentals, technical momentum, and multiple growth levers at play, Dell is well-positioned for continued success in the coming years. For investors, the current setup presents a unique opportunity to participate in the resurgence of a tech powerhouse.
NYSE:DELLLong
by DEXWireNews
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for Sept 9 : GapUp-Higher Counter TrendPay special attention to this video and prepare for what I believe will be a type of Flash-Crash event starting near Sept 20-24. Now is the time to start moving more capital into CASH. Prepare for this potential downside price move of -9-14% by protecting your capital. Yes. There will be bigger opportunities near the bottom of this moderate Flash-crash event. No, you don't want to watch your assets fall 10-15% over the next 60 days. The solution is to move into a more protective allocation mode (70~80% CASH) over the next 5 to 7 days and then ride it out. Remember, I'm here to try to help you become a better trader. I tell you want I see and I live or die by my output. I'm not always 100% accurate. But I do believe the markets are going to move into a type fo Flash-Crash event over the next 45+ days and I believe the best way to prepare for this event is to load up on dry powder, trade smaller amounts for now, then look for opportunities near the bottom. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
SPX: NFP shaped sentimentNegative investors sentiment marked the previous week on the US equity markets. At the start of the week a news hit the market that market favorite tech company Nvidia was charged by the U.S. Justice Department for violence of antitrust law in the US. As news is reporting, charges came from company Xockets Inc for illegal use of the company's patents related to data processing units used in AI technology. This was the initial timing of the general selloff on financial markets. Another negative news was released on Friday, when the US non farm payrolls hit the levels below market anticipated ones. During August, the US economy added 142K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see a figure near 160K. The combination of negative news and sentiment brought the S&P 500 to its worst week in 2024. The index started the week at the level of 5.645 and finished it at 5.505, about 2,5% lower. The drop was mostly led by tech companies. A weak jobs data is turning investors to reconsider their expectations of the earnings of companies in the US in the coming period. Increasing number of analysts is pointing to a possibility of a recession in the US. Investors are now increasing expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates by 50 bps at their September meeting, in order to diminish further decline of the economy and jobs market. By the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there are almost equal numbers of participants who are expecting a 25 bps and 50 bps rate cut. Analysts are in agreement that the market currently does not have a clue in which direction to trade. At this moment investors are turning their eyes toward the Fed for guidance. In this sense, some further volatility might be expected at the US equity markets, until September 19th, when the Fed will shape the sentiment and final direction of equity markets.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Russell/SPX Divergence Indicating a Market Cycle TopThe stock market continues to make new highs and is finishing the final touches in this topping process. The problem is the Russell is failing to make new highs. We can see before every stock market crash was accompanied with the SPX/NDX/DJI making new highs while the Russell makes a lower high. This occurred during 2008, 2022, and it could be happening right as we speak. The Russell failing to make new highs suggest that the topping process is underway and we will be getting a powerful stock market crash.
AMEX:IWM
by justaturboman44
1
Shanghai Composite. 'Arctic Fox' leaps on Shanghai street cornerReal estate has made China rich in recent years and decades. Now it looks more like radioactive kryptonite from the DC Comics universe - the birthplace of Superman. Three months earlier, China's house prices fell 0.4% in a month, according to official statistics released in November 2023, the steepest drop since February 2015, according to Bloomberg data . It was one sign that a key engine of the world's second-largest economy is still faltering despite Beijing's multiple stimulus packages. At the same time, prices for secondary housing fell by 0.6% in October, which is the highest figure in nine years. According to the Cato Institute data , private property accounts for 1/4 of China's total gross domestic product and nearly 70% of all household wealth. This means that falling house prices have become a serious burden on the economy. The situation is exacerbated by a seemingly endless debt crisis that has left the country's two largest property developers on the brink of collapse, with both Evergrande and Country Garden defaulting on bond repayments in recent years. Evergrande serves as an example of how an industry that contributed to China's economic boom and prosperity for decades has become toxic and has become a point of weakness and decline. The company was founded in 1996 and built huge residential complexes in the city center, helping to accelerate China's shift away from a socialist agrarian economy. The company eventually expanded beyond real estate, opening separate businesses selling bottled water and electric vehicles, and in 2010 it bought a Chinese soccer club that would go on to become the country's most successful team. These days, the former giant is struggling for cash and facing liquidation. China's fragile housing market is back in the spotlight at the start of 2024, following the release of a batch of fresh statistics. China's troubled property market ended last year with the worst decline in new home prices in nearly nine years, despite government efforts to prop up a sector that was once a key driver of the second-largest economy. New home prices in December showed their sharpest fall since February 2015, while property sales measured by area fell 23% in December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday, January 17, 2024. Of the 70 cities included in the NBS house price data, 62 reported falling prices. Markets immediately responded with a strong decline, exacerbating the accumulated negative returns since the start of 2024. Big China Indices Crash by Mid-January, 2024 At the same time, property developer investment in December fell year-on-year at the fastest pace since at least 2000, according to Reuters calculations based on NBS data. Overall, real estate investment fell 9.6% in 2023, roughly matching the decline in 2022. Several Chinese developers, including China Evergrande Group HKEX:3333 and Country Garden HKEX:2007 defaulted on their offshore debts and entered into restructuring processes. Country Garden, the country's largest private real estate developer, warned this week that it expects the real estate market to remain weak into 2024. The technical main chart is dedicated to the Shanghai Composite Stock Index, which, judging by the current scenario, will experience far from the best year in its history, as a result of the index breaking down its narrowing multi-year range. // Photo: “Arctic fox” leaps on Shanghai street corner . 💡 February, 2024 Notes 👉 Chinese stocks are falling for the 6th month in a row by February 2024 against the backdrop of the weakness of the Chinese economy, while SSE:000001 Shanghai Composite Stock Index fell below its 200-month SMA for the first time in its history. 👉 An extremely rare Bearish Super Combo in the Chinese financial market of 6 consecutive monthly declines is the result of disappointment with economic data and PRC government measures to support the economy. 👉 Industrial activity in China fell for the fourth month in a row in January, official data showed on Wednesday. PMI indexes point to a bleak picture of continued contraction in manufacturing, roughly unchanged activity in the services sector and a slowdown in construction, Nomura analysts said. 👉 Weak economic recovery and limited support measures have affected investor sentiment. The Hang Seng Tech Index of Hong Kong-listed tech giants HSI:HSTECH fell 20% in January, while Hong Kong-listed shares of mainland property developer Hang Seng index fell 19%.
SSE:000001
by PandorraResearch
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 8th—> Sept 13th)Hello Investors! 🌟 September started with a sharp decline as investors pruned risk assets from their portfolios amid concerns over US economic data and rising worries about growth. Let’s break down the key events that influenced the markets this week. 📉 Market Overview: The week opened with a broad sell-off across equities, commodities, and crypto, as US Treasury yields dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year. Disappointing August ISM manufacturing data set the tone for a week of worse-than-expected economic readings, stoking fears that the elusive “soft landing” may be slipping further away. US equities gave back all the gains made in the second half of August, with much of the selling attributed to multiple compression, particularly in technology stocks. Nvidia was the most prominent example, with its stock falling ~25% from its earnings peak amid historic daily declines in market cap. The S&P 500 faced resistance near the 5,600 level, struggling above 20x next year’s earnings. By the end of the week, the S&P lost 4.2%, the Dow dropped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.8%, marking the tech index’s worst decline since November 2022. Stock Market Performance: 📉 S&P 500: Down by 4.2% 📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.9% 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 5.8% Economic Indicators: WTI Crude Oil: Prices slid to their lowest levels since June 2023, prompting OPEC+ to extend its 2.2M bpd voluntary production cuts through November. Bank of Canada: Cut rates by 25 basis points in a move to boost economic growth, while PM Trudeau faced political challenges after losing support from a key coalition partner. JOLTS Jobs Data: Missed estimates significantly, falling below 8M job openings for just the second time this year. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers dropped below a key Fed gauge, reinforcing the case for rate cuts. ADP Employment Report: Hit a three-year low, showing declining pay growth for those who didn’t change jobs, adding to concerns about labor market weakness. Fed’s Beige Book: Revealed flat or declining economic activity in nine out of twelve districts, suggesting economic sluggishness that could influence the Fed’s next moves. August Jobs Report: Showed further labor market deceleration, with downward revisions to June and July payrolls. The report kept the door open for more aggressive Fed action, with FOMC officials signaling that at least 50 basis points will be debated at the September 18th meeting. Treasury and FX Markets: Yield Curve: Continued to normalize as the US 2-year yield traded 4 basis points below the 10-year rate. Futures Markets: Priced in over 100 bps of cuts by the end of 2024 and ~225 bps by September 2025. Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: Traded close to its August lows, while the VIX volatility index rose above 23 but remained below early August highs. Corporate News: Docusign: Posted strong quarterly results and guidance, getting back on track after struggles during the post-pandemic period. Hewlett Packard Enterprises: Delivered respectable earnings but saw shares fall, as investors were unimpressed with guidance. Broadcom: Reported an uninspiring Q3, leaving investors with more questions about the pace of AI growth, contributing to broader tech sector pressure. Nvidia: There was speculation that NVDA had received a subpoena from the DOJ, but this turned out to be false news. While they are under investigation, no formal subpoena has been served yet. M&A News: Nippon Steel’s Acquisition of US Steel: Faces challenges as reports suggest the Biden Administration may block the deal on national security grounds. Verizon: Agreed to acquire Frontier Communications for $9.6B, expanding its fiber network and positioning itself for future growth.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024. Quote from last week: comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows. Invalidation is below 5390. bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out. Invalidation is above 5540. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. → Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday. short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
Nasdaq already in a Bear Market Hello everyone, We are currently in a topping process and chances are July 10, 2024 was the top for the Nasdaq (NDX). I believe that we will fill the gap before entering the bear market. A confirmation of a lower high on NDX and a higher high on SPX would show a clear divergence confirming a market top. It's clear that the Russell (IWM) is not making new highs and showing a clear divergence from SPX and NDX making new highs suggesting this is the top. NDX may have already entered a bear market and will not be making new highs and this is simply an ABC corrective wave up before making new lows. TLDR: NDX ABC CORRECTIVE WAVE UP BEFORE NEW LOWS; NDX WILL MAKE LOWER HIGHS AND SPX NEW HIGHS WILL CONFIRM THIS A MARKET TOP
NASDAQ:NDX
by justaturboman44
4
Mastering Trading ConfluenceIn the world of trading, success often hinges on making informed decisions based on reliable analysis. However, relying on a single indicator or tool can sometimes lead to false signals and missed opportunities. This is where the concept of trading confluence comes into play. Trading confluence refers to the alignment of multiple indicators, tools, or analysis techniques to confirm trading signals, thereby increasing the probability of a successful trade. 🔵𝚆𝙷𝙰𝚃 𝙸𝚂 𝚃𝚁𝙰𝙳𝙸𝙽𝙶 𝙲𝙾𝙽𝙵𝙻𝚄𝙴𝙽𝙲𝙴? Confluence in trading is the process of combining different technical analysis tools to identify high-probability trading opportunities. Instead of relying on a single indicator, traders look for areas where multiple indicators or strategies align, providing a stronger signal for entering or exiting a trade. These tools might include price action analysis, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, support and resistance levels, or even fundamental analysis. When several tools point to the same conclusion, the signal is considered more robust, reducing the likelihood of false positives and improving the chances of a successful trade. 🔵𝚆𝙷𝚈 𝙸𝚂 𝙲𝙾𝙽𝙵𝙻𝚄𝙴𝙽𝙲𝙴 𝙸𝙼𝙿𝙾𝚁𝚃𝙰𝙽𝚃? The financial markets are complex, with numerous factors influencing price movements. Relying on a single indicator can lead to inconsistent results, as no indicator is infallible. By using confluence, traders can: Increase Confidence in Trade Decisions : When multiple indicators confirm the same signal, it provides traders with greater confidence to act on that signal, knowing that it is backed by various forms of analysis. Filter Out False Signals : Indicators sometimes produce false signals. By requiring alignment between different tools, confluence helps filter out these false positives, leading to more reliable trading decisions. Enhance Risk Management : Confluence allows traders to pinpoint more precise entry and exit points, which can lead to tighter stop-loss levels and better risk-reward ratios. This, in turn, can improve overall portfolio performance. 🔵𝙷𝙾𝚆 𝚃𝙾 𝚄𝚂𝙴 𝙲𝙾𝙽𝙵𝙻𝚄𝙴𝙽𝙲𝙴 𝙸𝙽 𝚃𝚁𝙰𝙳𝙸𝙽𝙶 To effectively use confluence in your trading strategy, consider the following steps: Select Complementary Indicators : Choose indicators that complement each other rather than those that replicate the same information. For example, combining a momentum indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a trend-following indicator like a Moving Average can provide a more comprehensive view of market conditions. Identify Key Levels : Look for confluence at key levels such as support and resistance zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, or pivot points. When price action aligns with these levels and is confirmed by multiple indicators, it suggests a higher probability trade setup. Confluence of Chart Patterns and Oscillator One powerful example of confluence is when a chart pattern like Equal Highs (EQH) aligns with a momentum indicator such as the Stochastic RSI. This combination provides more confidence in determining the trend direction. When both the EQH pattern and Stochastic RSI align, such as when price hits equal highs while the Stochastic RSI shows overbought conditions, traders can have increased confidence in anticipating a trend reversal. Combining Same-Type Indicators - Using multiple trend-following indicators, such as the Aroon, Directional Movement Index (DMI), and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), can enhance your ability to identify strong trends and avoid false signals. These indicators complement each other by offering different perspectives on trend strength and direction. - Combining multiple mean reversion indicators can provide stronger signals for potential price reversals. This approach helps in identifying overbought or oversold conditions with greater confidence. Here are some ways to create confluence using mean reversion indicators: When multiple indicators align to show overbought or oversold conditions, it provides a stronger signal for a possible price reversal. However, it's important to remember that even with confluence, no indicator combination is foolproof, and proper risk management should always be employed. Use Multiple Time Frames : Analyzing confluence across different time frames can provide additional confirmation. For instance, if a bullish signal is confirmed on both the daily and hourly charts, it strengthens the case for entering a long position. Multiple timeframe analysis is a highly effective strategy in technical analysis, as it allows traders to see the broader picture of market trends and zoom into shorter-term price movements. One common approach is to apply a 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) across different timeframes, such as 3D, 1D, 12H, and 4H charts, to assess trend strength and direction. By combining these timeframes with the 50-period SMA, traders can assess whether the trend is aligned across different perspectives. For example, if the price is above the 50-SMA on the 3D and 1D charts but below it on the 4H chart, it might signal a short-term pullback within a larger uptrend. This confluence of trend analysis across multiple timeframes provides a more robust trading strategy. Combine Technical and Fundamental Analysis : While technical indicators are the primary tools for identifying confluence, integrating fundamental analysis (such as economic reports, earnings releases, or geopolitical events) can further validate your trading decisions. Practice Patience and Discipline : Trading confluence requires patience. It’s important not to force trades when indicators are not in alignment. Waiting for confluence signals can prevent impulsive trades and improve your long-term success rate. 🔵𝙻𝙸𝙼𝙸𝚃𝙰𝚃𝙸𝙾𝙽𝚂 𝙾𝙵 𝚃𝚁𝙰𝙳𝙸𝙽𝙶 𝙲𝙾𝙽𝙵𝙻𝚄𝙴𝙽𝙲𝙴 While trading confluence can significantly enhance your trading strategy, it’s important to acknowledge its limitations: Overfitting : Relying on too many indicators can lead to overfitting, where the analysis becomes too complex, and signals become rare or conflicting. It's essential to strike a balance and avoid excessive complexity. Subjectivity : Confluence can be somewhat subjective, as traders might interpret the alignment of indicators differently. Developing a consistent and disciplined approach to identifying confluence is key. Delayed Signals : Waiting for multiple indicators to align can sometimes result in missed opportunities, especially in fast-moving markets. Traders should be aware of the trade-off between signal reliability and timing. 🔵𝙲𝙾𝙽𝙲𝙻𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙾𝙽 Trading confluence is a powerful concept that can enhance the quality of your trading decisions by providing more reliable signals and reducing the risk of false positives. By combining complementary indicators, analyzing multiple time frames, and incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis, traders can increase their confidence and improve their overall performance. However, it’s important to remain mindful of the potential limitations and to apply confluence in a disciplined and balanced manner. By mastering trading confluence, you’ll be better equipped to navigate the complexities of the market and make informed decisions that align with your trading goals.
VANTAGE:SP500Education
by BigBeluga
4
SPX: A Double Top at the peak could lead to a short-term fall! The chart depicts a steady upward trend of the index. After reaching an all-time high close to the 5,670 level, the index saw a significant decline, dropped by nearly 550 points. However, after a recovery, the index once again neared its previous high, but experienced another setback. The emergence of a Double Top pattern, along with a clear RSI divergence, indicates that the index may face difficulties in the near future. On the downside, immediate support is found between the 5,250 and 5,300 levels. A break below this support could lead to a considerable drop in the index.
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. During 1920s - 1930s we experienced a "pandemic event" in both scenarios *odd*. It created a shock crash followed by a pandemic rebound that the masses called "bubble" this is where valuations broke due to a black swan event. We use the SMA 2D (200) that shows the larger trend of the market and we see similarities of this "bubble" crash bounce in 1922-1924, oddly similar to 2022-2024 right?. What's even more dangerous about today is the market in the roaring 20s was held back by the Gold dollar peg, today? we don't even have that. We just have interest rates. Following the 1924 situation the New York FED cut funding rates to avoid a "unemployment crisis" and it began the fueling of the final stage of a major bubble. Differences? during the pandemic in the 2020s Governments forced central banks to print trillions and trillions and enforce lock downs to stop the circulation of the currency. Following this they then raised interest rates globally sucking capital back into "bills" "Money Market Funds". What happens next?, the FRED will cut interest rates aggressively to avoid unemployment spiking trying to front run the future and in return these rates being lowered will rally bonds and release capital and new leverage back onto the market based on the debasement of QE we experienced. Yes the QE during the pandemic barely touched the markets where people were calling 2022 a "bubble". SPX/USM2 has broken out of a major trend while the FRED aggressively raised interest rates indicating this new "trend" cannot be contained without raising rates higher and its impossible to do so with the Government debt interest. A new bubble fueled by "Artificial Intelligence, Bitcoin, Electric Cars, Robotics, Biotechnology" could be rivalling the "automobile, radio, and electricity" fuel of the 1920s. The big question is does it end in a giant crash without a depression? and the answer will ultimately be how well the leveraged is contained in the later stages of the market.
TVC:DJILong
by SatoshiInsight
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the trading sessions of the current week, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated significant downward movement, completing an Inner Index Dip at 5408 and establishing a new Mean Resistance level at 5530. There is a strong likelihood of a rebound to this level. Further, emphasis is placed on achieving the extended downward move to the target marked at Mean Support 5344, where a resilient rebound is anticipated.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter