Dollar down, Metals, Miners, Crude Up! SPX new high, Bitcoin???Premarket US dollar down while precious metals and mining stocks get a bid higher. SPX closes above 6118$ making new record high. Crude oil gets a minor bounce, can it retrace to $77? What is Bitcoin doing next? Will it close higher or sell off from here? That is the question.
S&P 500 (SPX500)
S&P 500 Index Sets Record HighS&P 500 Index Sets Record High
As shown by the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the stock index:
→ has increased by approximately 3.5% since the start of the year;
→ surpassed its previous all-time highs set in December.
Market participants’ optimism was driven by:
→ a strong start to earnings season and expectations of robust reports from major tech companies;
→ statements made by Donald Trump at the Davos forum, where the US president urged Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices and expressed the view that interest rates should be reduced. Overall, such measures are expected to foster economic growth.
Reuters quoted Lindsay Bell, Chief Strategist at 248 Ventures: buyers "like the idea of interest rates coming down, of oil prices coming down. All in all, the market is optimistic the more they hear about Trump policies. We're just seeing a reflection of that optimism."
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reveals:
→ At the end of 2024, price fluctuations formed an ascending channel (marked by blue lines).
→ The December dip appears to be a correction within the prevailing uptrend. Bears managed to push the price below the lower blue line, but only for about a week.
→ After breaking the correction channel (shaded in orange), bulls faced brief resistance (indicated by the arrow) at the 6040 level.
→ The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone and signals divergence. This suggests a minor pullback could occur, potentially testing the aforementioned 6040 level.
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SPX500 ICC Long Trade SetupPrice dropped from 6070 creating the bottom (L).
Before that bottom, price made that push upside (H).
After (L) price broke above (H), giving us an indication.
We knew that every time price broke back above (H) buyers were ready to buy.
First entry was valid, it was on session and zooming in the 15m buyers were strong and price was creating higher lows.
Although price didn't hit TP, stopped us and continued down to grab the liquidity sitting below the last low (L).
Then again, higher supports, zoom into 15m around the level of reaction to find highs breaking highs.
Back in session, price broke above the level so we re-entered buys, same trade as before, same SL and TP.
Some we lose some we win, what's important is sticking to the plan and managing risk!
S&P500 - Preparing For The Final Bullrun!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is still heading higher:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Although the S&P500 has been creating new all time highs for the past couple of months, charts are clearly telling us that this bullrun is not over yet. We already saw two textbook cycles of +90% each and during 2025, we will see the completion of the third and final bullrun.
Levels to watch: $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SPX500 to find a top?US500 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Previous resistance located at 6102.
A 5 wave bullish count has been completed at 6107.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
We look to Sell at 6102 (stop at 6147)
Our profit targets will be 6003 and 5955
Resistance: 6102 / 6107 / 6179
Support: 6003 / 5955 / 5886
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-23-25 : Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern suggests the markets will attempt to hold near recent support while attempting to determine trend. I view it as move of an indecisive day - looking to see if the markets can break to new all-time highs or if the markets have reached the top I've been discussing.
In my opinion, today will be a pause/consolidation day in the SPY/QQQ - leading to the big CRUSH pattern tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are under quite a bit of pressure this morning. The metals pattern is a BOTTOM pattern. So, I expect this selling in metals to be reflective of issues that will drive the SPY/QQQ downward tomorrow (the CRUSH pattern) and likely result in a moderate downward trend in the SPY/QQQ over the next 2 weeks.
Metals will recover and try to move higher as metals continues to hedge against global risks.
BTCUSD is moving downward - trying to break below the Flag Support level of the EPP pattern.
I believe tomorrow will be a pivotal day for the markets and today will be a fairly consolidated day overall.
Get some.
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SPX new all time high. GE ripping today. GOLD, OIL, NGSPX puts in new all time high yesterday tags 6100$!! GE beats earnings this morning. NFLX rips higher yesterday as earnings blowout. ORCL, MSFT, PLTR all move higher due to TRUMP Stargate program news. Will the markets continue higher or sell off this week??? GOLD, OIL, NATGAS all making moves.
S&P 500 Analysis: Approaching All-Time High with Critical LevelsS&P 500 Analysis
The price has risen approximately 1.00% since yesterday, driven by strong earnings results. It is currently aiming to reach the (ATH) of 6100. A pullback to 6073 and 6051 is likely if the price stabilizes below this level.
However, if a 4-hour candle closes above 6100, the bullish trend is expected to continue, targeting 6143.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6100
Resistance Levels: 6120, 6143
Support Levels: 6073, 6051, 6020
Trend Outlook:
Bullish if the ATH of 6100 is broken.
Bearish while the price remains below 6100.
previous idea:
SPX500 H4 | Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,042.53 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 5,995.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 6,102.21 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area 6104 (Wave 3).Colleagues, I see that the price has completed wave “4” and is now forming wave “5” of the higher order.
I believe that the price may go into correction in the lower wave “2” to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5896.9, after which I expect the upward movement to continue to the resistance area 6104.
The upward movement is the priority, so I warn that the price may just continue to move upward, updating the wave “1”.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Conflicting signals for the S&P 500 just off its record highThe S&P 500 closed less than 4 points from its record high on Wednesday. On one hand, the reversal candle with bearish volumes suggest a pullback, on the other we've seen bears humbled under similar scenarios over the past 18 months. Today I explain why I think a bullish breakout is on the cards, while highlighting my bearish concerns for market positioning.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
S&P ES Long setup target 6129 / Calls SPY target 605Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (6020.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 17) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (6129.00).
CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (6129.00), Target 2 at 161.8% (6206.00) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6243.50)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5983.00).
Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (605), Target 2 at 161.8% (613) and Target 3 at 178.6 (616)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (592).
NVIDIA's Momentum A Breakout Story in Progress1. Trend and Structure
The chart showcases an upward momentum, breaking out of a prior resistance level, indicating bullish pressure. The breakout aligns with the upward-sloping trendline, which serves as a strong support structure.
2.Breakout Confirmation
The price has successfully broken through a resistance level, confirming a bullish breakout. This signals potential continuation toward the marked target zone.
3.Entry Point
The entry appears to have been taken near the breakout point, at approximately $141.60, aligning with the bullish momentum.
4. Target (Take Profit)
The take-profit level is marked at $152.94, representing a reasonable upward move from the breakout point. This target aligns with the continuation of the trend.
5. Stop Loss
The stop-loss level is placed at $133.46, below the recent support and trendline. This level ensures protection in case the breakout fails.
6.Risk-Reward Ratio
The setup demonstrates a healthy risk-to-reward ratio, with potential gains outweighing the risks. This indicates a well-calculated trade.
7. Technical Indicators
The momentum of the candles breaking the resistance shows strong bullish interest. No immediate signs of bearish divergence or reversal are visible in the chart.
The chart reflects a bullish breakout setup in NVIDIA's stock price. With strong momentum and a clear trendline breakout, the trade aligns well with the current upward movement. The target and stop-loss levels are well-placed, adhering to a disciplined trading strategy.
Morgan Stanley Breaks Free A Bullish Wedge Reversal in ActionMorgan Stanley (MS) on the 4-hour chart has confirmed a breakout from a descending wedge pattern, signaling a strong bullish reversal. The breakout is accompanied by increased momentum, as indicated by the clean surge above the wedge’s upper boundary. This setup is a classic reversal signal, with bulls reclaiming control.
The entry is placed at 137.87, capitalizing on the breakout momentum. The stop loss is strategically positioned at 123.50, below the wedge’s lower boundary, to safeguard against invalidation of the setup. The take profit is set at 155.35, aligning with the wedge’s projected target based on its height.
The trade exhibits a solid risk-to-reward ratio, and the breakout aligns with the broader bullish market sentiment for the stock. With buyers driving the price upwards, this trade setup offers a high-probability opportunity for trend continuation.
SPX 500 Returns to All-Time HighsAfter two days of Trump’s official inauguration at the White House, the market maintains a short-term optimistic bias. This has allowed the price to rise by more than 1.5% as expectations grow for low-tax policies that could potentially boost domestic consumption in the United States.
Steady Trend:
The growing wave of buying positions has brought focus back to the long-term trend that has persisted in the stock index for several months. However, the price will now need to confront the resistance zone at all-time highs to confirm the bullish bias in the coming sessions.
RSI:
At the moment, the RSI line maintains a significant upward slope and marks levels above the neutral zone at 50. However, it is approaching the inflection point near the overbought zone marked by the 70 level of the indicator. RSI oscillations near this zone could begin to trigger bearish corrections in the actual resistance as an imbalance of long positions starts to emerge.
Key Levels:
6.082: The most important short-term resistance level, coinciding with all-time highs and the upper Bollinger Band. Consistent oscillations above this level could set a new record high and reinforce the formation of the long-term bullish trend.
5.963: A nearby support level, located in the middle of the current small lateral range, which could serve as a resting point for future bearish corrections in price.
5.847: The definitive support level, where the latest market lows coincide with the barrier marked by the 100-period moving average. Persistent price oscillations below this level could jeopardize the current long-term bullish bias and pave the way for a fresh wave of selling pressure.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-22-25: BreakAway PatternToday's BreakAway pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move aggressively away from yesterday's closing price level. I do believe the markets are over-extended to the upside. Which is why I continue to warn traders that we may be nearing a top/peak price level and to prepare for a rollover type of top in the SPY/QQQ.
My broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would top near Jan 20-21. I believe we are seeing a type of carryover momentum move to the upside as a result of optimism related to the Inauguration.
Now that the Inauguration is complete, I believe the markets will start to "resettle" into reality.
The SPY/QQQ should move into a rolling type of top pattern over the next 3-5+ days, then trend downward into my Feb 9-11 DEEP-V Base/Bottom.
Gold and Silver are likely to move higher in an attempt to hedge against global risks and uncertainty.
BTCUSD is moving through the current EPP pattern as the flagging breaks down. This should prompt a move back to the 92k level, then a brief pause before trending further downward.
Remember, the markets are likely to stall out through H1:2025. Get ready for volatile price swings before we move back into trending near the end of 2025.
Get some.
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$SPY hold of $580-588 region sets up long to $614-630AMEX:SPY looks like it's formed a low for the short term when it failed the H&S pattern.
From here, I think it's likely that we fall back into the $580-588 to scare everyone into thinking there's more downside, but if that region holds, it'll set up a trigger long all the way up to the $614-$630 region.
I think the move higher should play out by mid-February (again if that $580-588 region holds). If it fails, then we're looking back down at the lower support level $545.
If we do end up going higher, I think that $630 region will be the short term top and it'll set up a move down to $545 before we move higher.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 1-21-25 : Cycle Top FormationThis video highlights my cycle research and why I believe the US markets are very close to a market top right now.
My research suggests the US markets would rally into the Inauguration and reach a peak near Jan 20-22. I believe the markets are very close to a market top right now, and there is limited opportunity to the upside currently.
I believe there is a bigger opportunity for a pullback in the SPY target 578 to 585 (roughly), where I believe the SPY will find support.
Gold & Silver should continue to price in additional risks and rally over the next 3+ weeks. I believe Gold will target $2880, then stall a bit before rallying up above $3000. Silver should target $33.50 to $34.25 at the same time.
Bitcoin continues to be range-bound. At this time, I believe the most logical outcome for BTCUSD is a breakdown attempt until the US settles on deregulation policies.
Let's see how this plays out over the next few days/weeks.
Get some.
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2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: One again we saw a huge Globex sell spike but now follow-through. Bulls are on their way to 6100 and there we will see how many buyers we can find to retest the ath 6186. Plan is simple, trade the bull channel/expanding triangle until clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames)
key levels: 6000 - 6100 (above 6100 comes 6200 into play)
bull case: Bulls are in BTFD mode and making higher highs again. 6100 is their next target and the last resistance until 6186. Problem for the bulls is that we get decent sell spikes and holding through them is tough. That is probably why we see bigger profit taking when we print new highs.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Bears ask themselves how many pushes on whatever time frame bulls can honestly get. The 6100 likely won’t hold but how many are willing to buy above 6100 when we could easily pull-back 100 points. We will find out tomorrow. Bears don’t have many arguments. We have a clear bull pattern upwards and the best they can hope for is to scalp short on new highs for a decent pull-back. Until bears can close consecutive bars below 6000, I would not look for bigger shorts. Given the current erratic price action due to orange man tweets, it’s a wild ride. Trade smaller and with wider stops.
Invalidation is above 6120.
short term: Bullish for 6100, then Neutral until clearly breaking out above again. Targets above are 6186 and then 6200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 6000, duh. Otherwise literally every touch of the 1h 20ema.
QQQ vs S&P500Today we are looking at a ratio chart from TradFi. We are plotting the ratio of Nasdaq100 vs S&P 500. Even if both charts observed separately tell us the same story. That we are in a bullish uptrend on the daily chart for the past 1 year. But the ratio chart clearly shows Nasdaq100 peaked out relative to S&P 500 on Aug 2024 just prior to the unravelling of Yen carry trade. Since then, the ratio has not broken to the upside and registered an ATH even if the tech stocks have been doing exceptionally well recently. The ratio of QQQ vs SPX is within a local uptrend but still within the upward sloping Fib Retracement level between 0 and 0.618. The tech heavy QQQ can and will claim leadership once we break out of the range in the upward sloping Fib retracement level and break above the 0.618 levels.