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S&P 500 (SPX500)

2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yeah I spare you your time. Markets have no idea where to go right now but I think Nvidia earnings can move it for good. Absolutely no opinion on those earnings and how market will react. I don’t like to gamble on such things. sp500 e-mini futures comment: I won’t conjure much words today for a market inside a 50 point triangle. Clear support and resistance visible. Either scalp it to both sides or wait for the breakout. No opinion on which side the breakout will happen. Both sides have arguments and I won’t try to guess it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5600 - 5670 bull case: Bulls want to get above 5670 and to make the bears give up so they can print a new ath or at least 5700 again. I do think many bulls will give up below 5550 but that’s far away for now. Currently no more magic to it. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears coming through with selling spikes rather than consecutive bear bars or sustained selling. I think many stops will be around 5675-5680 and market would probably print 5700 fast then. If Nvidia misses and market pukes, below 5580 I will heavily favor the bears to reverse the madness. Invalidation is above 5675. short term: Neutral as it gets. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap at the open anywhere below 5619. Second best was any long around 5628 since market is trying hard to show you this is support for now. Selling 5649 was also decent. Trading range with clear support and resistance. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-27 Update : Possible Long Squeeze EODToday's SPY Cycle Pattern should reflect a decidedly bearish overtone to price action. The fact that we opened with a GAP downward and have waffled around just above yesterday's closing price does not really excite me. I see price failing and waffling around in "no man's land". This video covers the SPY, Bitcoin, & Gold. Stay agile. I see the markets rolling downward into the end of the day today - but I could be wrong. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
PayPal Recovering 42% From Recent LowsStrategic partnerships between major companies like PayPal and Adyen are enhancing consumer convenience with their new project, Fastlane by PayPal. Aimed at revolutionizing the checkout process for U.S. enterprise and marketplace users, Fastlane combines PayPal and Adyen's technologies to streamline guest checkout, significantly reducing purchase completion time. A key feature of Fastlane is its ability to remember users' payment and shipping details, facilitating quicker future transactions. According to PayPal's data from April to June 2024, Fastlane increased checkout conversion rates by over 80% and decreased checkout time by 32% compared to traditional methods, indicating a boost in customer satisfaction and retention. Adyen, recognized for its extensive fintech solutions, is the first payment processor partnering in the Fastlane initiative, which supports PayPal’s goal of global expansion. The service now includes more payment options like Venmo and various Buy Now, Pay Later schemes, accessible worldwide through Adyen’s platform, enhancing payment flexibility. The introduction of Fastlane might influence the financial sector and stock market, especially considering PayPal's stock recovery signs after a significant drop. Strategic developments such as Fastlane could be crucial for further growth as the stock challenges major resistance levels. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by Sublime_Trading
Volatility in Focus: A Trader's Perspective on S&P 500 Futures1. Introduction Volatility is a critical concept for traders in any market, and the E-mini S&P 500 Futures are no exception. Traditionally, traders have relied on tools such as the Average True Range (ATR) and Historic Volatility (HV) to measure and understand market volatility. These tools provide a snapshot of how much an asset's price fluctuates over a given period, helping traders to gauge potential risk and reward. ATR measures market volatility by analyzing the range of price movement, often over a 14-day period. It reflects the degree of price movement but doesn’t differentiate between upward or downward volatility. Historic Volatility looks at past price movements to calculate how much the price has deviated from its average. It’s a statistical measure that gives traders a sense of how volatile the market has been in the past. While these traditional tools are invaluable, they offer a generalized view of volatility. For traders seeking a more nuanced and actionable understanding, it's essential to distinguish between upside and downside volatility—how much and how fast the market moves up or down. This article introduces a pragmatic, trader-focused approach to measuring volatility in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures. By analyzing daily, weekly, and monthly volatility from both the upside and downside perspectives, we aim to provide insights that can better prepare traders for the real-world dynamics of the market. 2. Methodology: Volatility Calculation from a Trader’s Perspective In this analysis, we take a more nuanced approach by separating volatility into two distinct categories: upside volatility and downside volatility. The idea is to focus on how much the market tends to move up versus how much it moves down, providing a clearer picture of potential risks and rewards. Volatility Calculation Method: o Daily Volatility: Daily upside volatility is calculated as the percentage change from the prior day's close to the next day’s high, assuming the next day’s high is higher than the prior day’s close. Daily downside volatility is the percentage change from the prior day's close to the next day’s low, assuming the next day’s low is lower than the prior day’s close. o Weekly Volatility: Weekly upside volatility is determined by comparing the previous Friday’s close to the highest point during the following week, assuming the market went higher than the prior Friday’s close. Weekly downside volatility is calculated by comparing the previous Friday’s close to the lowest point during the following week, assuming the market went lower than the prior Friday’s close. o Monthly Volatility: Monthly upside volatility is measured by taking the percentage change from the prior month’s close to the next month’s high, assuming prices moved higher than the prior monthly close. Monthly downside volatility is calculated by comparing the prior month’s close to the lowest point of the following month, assuming prices moved lower than the prior monthly close. 3. Volatility Analysis The E-mini S&P 500 Futures exhibit distinct patterns when analyzed from the perspective of upside and downside volatility. By measuring the daily/weekly/monthly fluctuations using the trader-focused approach discussed earlier, we gain valuable insights into how the market behaves on a day-to-day basis. Key Insights: Trend Observation: The data reveals that during periods of market distress, such as financial crises or sudden economic downturns, downside volatility tends to spike significantly. This indicates a greater propensity for the market to fall rapidly compared to its upward movements. Implication for Traders: Understanding these patterns allows traders to anticipate the potential risks and adjust their strategies accordingly. For instance, in highly volatile environments, traders might consider tightening their stop losses or hedging their positions to protect against sudden downturns. 4. Comparative Analysis: Rolling Volatility Differences To gain deeper insights into the behavior of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures, it’s useful to compare the rolling differences between upside and downside volatility over time. Rolling Volatility Differences Explained: Rolling Analysis: A rolling analysis calculates the difference between upside and downside volatility over a set period, such as 252 days for daily data (approximately one trading year), 52 weeks for weekly data, or 12 months for monthly data. This method smooths out short-term fluctuations, allowing us to see more persistent trends in how the market behaves. Volatility Difference: The volatility difference is simply the upside volatility minus the downside volatility. A positive value suggests that upside movements were more significant during the period, while a negative value indicates stronger downside movements. Key Insights: Trend Observation: The rolling difference analysis reveals that downside volatility generally dominates, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty or financial crises. This confirms the common belief that markets tend to fall faster than they rise. Implication for Traders: Traders could use rolling volatility differences to anticipate changes in market conditions. A widening gap in favor of downside volatility may signal increasing risk and the potential for further declines. Conversely, a narrowing or positive rolling difference could suggest improving market sentiment and potential opportunities for long positions. 5. Volatility Trends Over Time Understanding the frequency and conditions under which upside or downside volatility dominates can provide traders with valuable insights into market behavior. By analyzing the percentage of days, weeks, and months where upside volatility exceeds downside volatility, we can better grasp the nature of market trends over time. Volatility Trends Explained: Percentage of Days with Greater Upside Volatility: This metric shows the percentage of trading days within a given year where the upside volatility was higher than the downside volatility. It highlights the frequency with which the market experienced more significant upward movements compared to downward ones on a daily basis. Percentage of Weeks with Greater Upside Volatility: Similarly, this metric calculates the percentage of weeks in a year where the upside volatility was greater than the downside. It provides a broader perspective on market trends, capturing sustained movements within weekly timeframes. Percentage of Months with Greater Upside Volatility: This metric reflects the percentage of months in a year where upside volatility exceeded downside volatility. It is particularly useful for identifying longer-term trends and understanding the market’s behavior over extended periods. Key Insights: Trend Observation: Historically, again, we can see the data shows that downside volatility tends to dominate, especially during periods of market stress. However, there are years where upside volatility has been more frequent. Implication for Traders: Traders can use these insights to adjust their strategies based on the prevailing market conditions. In years where downside volatility is more frequent, defensive strategies or hedging might be more appropriate. Conversely, in years where upside volatility dominates, traders might consider more aggressive or trend-following strategies. 6. Key Takeaways for Traders The analysis of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures’ volatility, broken down by daily, weekly, and monthly intervals, provides crucial insights for traders. Understanding the distinct patterns of upside and downside volatility is essential for making informed trading decisions, particularly in a market that often behaves asymmetrically. Practical Conclusions for Traders: Risk Management: Given the dominance of downside volatility, traders should prioritize risk management strategies. This includes using stop-loss orders, protective options, and other hedging techniques to mitigate potential losses during volatile periods. Strategic Positioning: Traders might consider adjusting their position sizes or employing defensive strategies during periods of heightened downside volatility. Conversely, when upside volatility shows signs of strengthening, more aggressive positioning or trend-following strategies could be beneficial. Timing Entries and Exits: Understanding the patterns of volatility can help traders better time their entries and exits. For instance, entering the market during periods of lower downside volatility or after a significant downside spike can offer better risk-reward opportunities. Adaptability: The key to successful trading in volatile markets is adaptability. Traders should remain flexible and adjust their strategies based on the prevailing market conditions, as indicated by the volatility analysis. By incorporating these insights into their trading approach, traders can better navigate the E-mini S&P 500 Futures market, enhancing their ability to capitalize on opportunities while managing risks effectively. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
6
SP500 Will Go Down! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for SP500. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,607.46. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,575.58 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SignalProvider
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-27: Close-1 GAP Trend PatternToday's pattern suggests the GAP Trend portion reflects whether today's open is above or below yesterday's close. If today's open is above yesterday's close, then I would expect a higher opening GAP leading to a fairly strong rally phase today. If today's open is below yesterday's close, then I would expect a lower opening GAP leading to a fairly strong selling phase today. These types of patterns do not often reflect a reversal bar - although reversals can happen. Overall, I believe the bias is still to the upside. But I also believe price is consolidating in early trading this week and needs to continue to consolidate before attempting to rally again later this week (Thursday/Friday maybe). So, I would not be surprised to see price stall out a bit today. Let's see what happens. We may see a bit of a rally or sell-off depending on where today's opening price is and if we see any substantial Opening GAP. The bigger the GAP, the more likely we are going to see price trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Nas100 - End of August Update Hello Traders 🌍 So far so good, as mentioned yesterday. We making lower moves, ultimately i would like to see price move to 19,120 by the end of this week. Notes - Price left Friday's high + PWH intact - Created bearish displacement during NY am session - Total move plus 250 ticks from London - 4hr Gap zone showing good price reaction - Possible US tech selloff today i am anticipating a move lower, however will sit on my hands until we between 19,630 and 19,666 for OTE, if all works out well. Remember this is subjective price will tell us around 2:45am to 05:00am where it might want to go. Trade safe 👌
OANDA:NAS100USD
by KingDee57
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-26 : BLANK SPY Cycle PatternToday's blank SPY Cycle Pattern means there is no definition for today's pattern in the pattern library. I will dig into this a bit further. At this point, when we get blank days, it is usually a fairly rare and uncommon pattern that may not develop very often. That makes it hard to identify if there are not many reference points to determine what type of price action to expect. Still, I go into detail related to what I believe will happen over the next few days/weeks for the SPY, Gold, Bitcoin and provide a series of opportunities for traders in this video. Remember, it is not about trying to force the markets to make a move. Often, we have to sit back and wait for the next big opportunity to setup. I believe the next 5+ trading days will present a moderate melt-up in the SPY and Gold. I believe Bitcoin will stay rather flat after the rally over the past 3+ days. This is why I believe the markets are transitioning into a bigger breakaway phase setting up for Sept 4~10. Thus, I believe traders need to prepare for that bigger move over the next 5~7+ trading days and stay cautious right now. We are going to move into a consolidation/peak/top phase near Sept 20~25. So, this next rally phase only lasts from Sept 5th through Sept 21 - about 10+ trading days. Heads up. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
S&P bulls are strong; new historical high?Last week was marked by an increase in selling pressure, which, despite all efforts, has not had a significant impact. As we can see on the daily chart, the stairstep pattern remained intact—even a powerful attack on Thursday was unable to break the previous day's low. The bulls maintained control, leading to a small rally the following day (I highlighted the importance of the stairstep pattern in my previous review). As we approach the end of the month, there are a few things to keep an eye on: 1. The price is in a weekly uptrend, which has not been seriously threatened so far. Buyers maintain long-term control over the price. 2. The daily timeframe is also under buyers' control. 3. All major S&P sectors are moving in the same direction. Price is approaching previous major high ( 565 ), which can act as a resistance but there is no guaranty that it will hold for long. The last consolidation, which began on July 17th, was triggered more by bullish exhaustion than by strong selling at this level. This suggests that there may be little to safeguard it. Given all the above, there is no reason to believe that market is currently under threat. For the trend to shift to the bearish side, three things must happen (from the TA perspective): 1. Daily Sellers must take down the previous day low, breaking stairstep pattern 2. Weekly Sellers must take down the previous week low ( 553.8 ), setting weekly lower high 3. Month should close red (below 552 ) Until then we’re in a bull market.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Either Stock or GoldIn every analysis I have done over the years, I have said that I hold either gold or equities. I have never been in cash other than equities. These charts explain why. From 1884 to 1970, you could buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 0.74 gold or $14.75. So there is not much point in choosing between gold and the dollar during this period because the Bretton Woods system is still in place. But the real problem starts after 1970. After the Bretton Woods system was abolished, you can now buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 2 gold coins. Yes, the stock is rising relative to gold, but it is not in a continuous upward trend, so you can buy SP500 shares with 2 gold in 1972 or 2020. But in dollar terms, things are not so good. In 1970 you could buy SP500 for $100 and in 2020 you can buy SP500 for $3000. Therefore, when you sell a share, going for gold instead of cash may put you at a speculative loss in the short term, but in the long term you are always on the winning side.
SP:SPX
by YavuzAkbay
SPX500 H4 | Approaching all-time highSPX500 is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,673.64 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high. Stop loss is at 5,710.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and the all-time high. Take profit is at 5,579.72 which is an overlap support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Aug 25th—> Aug 30th)Weekly Market Recap 🌐 Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw US stock markets continue their recovery from early August losses, bolstered by strong market breadth and significant economic developments. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈 Market Overview: US stock markets opened the week with a strong recovery, continuing to recoup losses from earlier in August. Market breadth was notably strong, though equity volumes remained seasonally low. Treasury yields were under modest pressure, the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low, and gold reached new all-time highs on Tuesday following weaker-than-expected Philly Fed services data. On Wednesday, the BLS released annual payroll revisions, revealing a downward adjustment of 818K payrolls, or ~68K per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2009. This significant revision further set the stage for the Fed to solidify expectations for a September rate cut at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week. July FOMC minutes confirmed that some officials had already been open to a rate cut during their last meeting. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained under pressure due to concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal. Heading into Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, the US 2-year yield was holding at around 4%, with futures markets projecting that investors expected the Fed to begin lowering rates next month, potentially by as much as 100 bps by year’s end. **Powell delivered a message that pleased investors, acknowledging that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” By expressing increased confidence in the inflation trajectory and stating that no further cooling in the labor market is necessary, Powell reinforced the belief that a series of rate cuts are likely to begin in September. Futures markets continued to project 100 bps of easing by early next year, with close to 200 bps over the next 12 months.** For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the DJIA rose 1.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📈 S&P 500: Up by 1.5% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 1.3% - 📈 NASDAQ: Up by 1.4% **Economic Indicators:** - **Treasury Yields:** The US 2-year yield held steady around 4%, as investors priced in expectations for Fed rate cuts. - **BLS Payroll Revisions:** The downward revision of 818K payrolls, the largest since 2009, further supported the case for a September rate cut. - **Gold Prices:** Hit new all-time highs as the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low. - **Crude Oil Prices:** Remained under pressure amid concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal. **Corporate News:** - **Target:** Delivered a strong quarter, beating on both the top- and bottom-line, with improving trends across discretionary categories. - **TJX Companies:** Posted another strong quarter, capitalizing on the current economic environment. - **Palo Alto Networks:** Topped estimates and raised FY product revenue guidance, though margins declined. - **Workday:** Reported a standout quarter and raised long-term operating margin targets. - **Lowe’s:** Reported weaker-than-expected results, missing SSS estimates and lowering its outlook due to a challenging macroeconomic environment. - **Mixed Earnings:** Macy’s, Snowflake, Williams-Sonoma, and BJ’s Wholesale Club reported relatively poorer execution, reflecting varying degrees of macroeconomic challenges. - **Cava Group:** Delivered impressive results, with 14%+ SSS growth, in contrast to Red Robin Gourmet, which missed and lowered its FY profit outlook. - **AMD:** Made headlines with a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B deal to acquire ZT Systems, aiming to better compete with Nvidia in the data center space. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will bring several key economic data releases and earnings reports: - **U.S. Core PCE Inflation** - **U.S. Q2 GDP** - **U.S. Housing Data** - **Earnings Reports:** CrowdStrike ( NASDAQ:CRWD ), Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ), Dell Technologies ( NYSE:DELL ), Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Prepare For The BOT COM BUBBLE (Starting 2026 & Beyond)I spent quite a bit of time this weekend going over my custom indexes and other research data to try to identify what and how the Vortex Rally I predicted would take shape. I mentioned something to my followers/subscribers last week about how today feels like the early 1990s (1991-1994 roughly). At that time, interest rates were just dropping from all-time highs and the general markets were in a bit of stagflation. People were not actively investing in homes or other big assets because it was not clear what the future would bring. The US government has just gone through the Regan Era - where spending on Starwars and other projects were considered Excessive - but that translated into a massive technology boom-cycle in the last 1990s. Are we going to see the same type of explosion with Robotics and AI over the next 10-20+ years. Will that lead to a massive rally phase (global & space growth industries) over the next 50+ years? How will humanity react to a massive robotics expansion where jobs and services may be replaced by robots? What will this transition lead to - some new type of human society/expectation where we can actually live a life dedicated to improving the human experience vs. working our entire life? Watch this video. Pay attention to my research. If I'm right - we are about to move into a very explosive market phase and smart traders should prepare for this move NOW. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
FX:NAS100Long
by BradMatheny
2
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 53 points to a new ath is a small spike at this point. Whenever a market is this close to an obvious magnet, it’s reasonable to assume that it will get there. Will it be a big difference if the high stays below 5700 or goes above 5721? Not really. You simply can not short this and put your stop a tick above the previous ath. Bulls are in control and until bears print consecutive bear bars below 5600, it stays that way. Quote from last week: comment : Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Bears produced the first bigger bear bar after almost 10% in 10 bars. It was also the first pullback (price goes below the previous bar low) in this bull trend inside the bigger trading range. As I wrote for dax, I can not be anything but neutral going into next week since we are at previous resistance after a very climactic move up. Bulls want a new ath and bears to keep it a lower high. Volume is picking up again and bears build some decent selling pressure on Thursday + Friday. On the 4h chart you can see 5 legs up without much of pullbacks. Will find out next week how many bulls are interested in buying above 5600. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls closed the bear gap and are free to print a new ath. Bears are not doing enough to make more bulls take profits, so naturally they keep on buying any small dip and pushing it higher. Technically we have two bull trend lines pointing to higher targets above 5721 with one even going to 5900-6000. Can this happen? For sure. After this climactic down than even more climactic up, everything is possible. Is it likely? No. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. They know the market is overdue for a bigger pullback again and they will add higher, even if we print a new ath. If they can keep this a lower high and print below 5600, I do think we could see more bulls covering their longs. For now bears can mostly hope for a sideways market and stopping the advance. On the monthly chart bears produced a decent doji in July and they want this months bar closing near 5500 to not generate a good buying signal for September. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5578 and now we are at 5652. 5600 was no bigger resistance. Bulls printed a green week but bears came around and starting making the market more two sided again. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. I don’t think bears want July to close above 5600. medium-long term : Can’t be too bearish after the reversal but same as dax again. Even if we do a new ath, I expect at least 5200 to be hit again this year but probably 5000. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bear gap and added the possible 5 wave series and a potential bigger two legged correction but that is pure speculation as of now.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the current week's trading session, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated notable resilience, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5564 and positioning itself beneath the attained Inner Index Rally at 5666. The prevailing price action indicates a sustained upward momentum aimed at retesting the completed Interim Index Rally at 5666, with an eye on the subsequent upside objectives represented by the Inner Index Rally at 5745 and the ultimate Outer Index Rally at 5840. It is important to note that the attainment of these targets is likely to prompt a selling price action.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
1928 Has Begun Early, Powell Has Given In. QE 3.0 The linchpin was Japan, the Japan interest rate scare has started the panic with the FRED. 1. US Debt spiral is 34.5T. 2. US Debt Interest at 1T and the system has buckled. 3. MMF at all time high 4. Majority still believe a yield curve that has not worked since 2008 will cause a recession. 5. The USA cannot have a recession or it defaults on its debt. Rates have to be cut and fast, MMF will start pouring into the market, cheap credit will start reinflating all assets. QE 3.0 will be commenced shortly to deal with the US Debt death spiral. This is the biggest financial crisis around the corner, people will short it who don't understand the USD currency is about to be debased by figures we can't imagine. This is the end game and it could last years. Its fun speculating the deflationary crash down, where's the debasement inflationary melt up?
AMEX:SPYLong
by UnknownUnicorn4782510
10
S&P500 / Rise in Anticipation of Powell’s Jackson Hole AddressStock Index Futures Climb Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech S&P 500 Technical Analysis: The S&P 500 recently pulled back from its resistance at 5643 and is currently consolidating within a narrow range between 5584 and 5620, awaiting a decisive breakout. Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 5644 is necessary to challenge the all-time high (ATH) at 5675. If 5675 is breached, it could confirm a bullish trend continuation. Bearish Scenario: Should the price remain below 5584 and close a 4-hour candle beneath this level, it could signal the onset of a bearish trend, potentially driving the price down to 5525 and 5460. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5602 Resistance Levels: 5620, 5644, 5676 Support Levels: 5584, 5525, 5460 Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5620 and 5460. Current Trend: Bearish momentum
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX Technical Analysis BreakdownHere is my technical breakdown of SPX on the 4 HOUR time frame... We started the month of May with an up-trend trend line bounce on a key support level which saw SPX climb slightly passed the support zone to surpass another key zone After this climb, we saw it accumulating in a RANGE from 14th May - 29th May, where it eventually broke to the downside. Normally this is a trade we would enter as it's a big volume range break, however, it broke downwards to touch a key support zone. In my experience this is NOT a trade worth taking as they are opposite confirmations. Later in July we finally got the RANGE trade we were looking for, when 17th June - 5th July we saw it's ACCUMULATING RANGE break with large volume to the UPSIDE. This trend was worth entering as it was heading towards a key resistance area, a great place to exercise your exit strategy. Once SPX hit the key resistance zone it bounced off and formed a downward trend line that would also be hit later down the line, confirming its relevance. When SPX hit the resistance line it found plenty of BULL TRADERS on the key SUPPORT level and bounced back up to touch the key RESISTANCE level on 20th AUGUST, where once again it touched the downward trend line. WHAT TO LOOK FOR NOW - I'm watching to see if SPX enters the resistance zone and breaks the trend-line and exits the zone, that's two confirmations for an uptrend which makes me confident in the long trade. On the other side, i'm waiting for the trend to retest key support zones where I will be waiting for a key zone breakout or bounce back to the resistance level.
SP:SPX
by I3ig_Trades
SPX Analysis by Deno Trading: Key Levels to Watch ForMy Take: Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, it's clear that we're approaching a critical juncture. The price recently rallied up to the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, which has been a significant barrier in the past. However, this level has proven to be tough for the bulls to break through, and we're now seeing signs of potential exhaustion. Key Levels: Resistance: $5,620 - $5,630: This is the zone where the price is currently facing resistance. It’s a crucial area to watch because a failure to break above it could result in a pullback. Support: $5,480 - $5,440: If we see a rejection from the current resistance, I'm expecting the price to retrace towards this support zone. This area has acted as a strong floor in the past, and it's likely where buyers might step in again. Trendline Support: The upward trendline, originating from the lows earlier this year, is still intact. This trendline could provide additional support around the $5,280 level if the price breaks through the aforementioned support zone. Expectations: Pullback Potential: Given the current price action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback from this resistance zone. The first area I'll be watching for potential support is the $5,480 - $5,440 zone. A break below this could bring us down to test the trendline around $5,280. Continuation of the Uptrend: If the bulls manage to push through the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend with a possible target towards $5,700 and beyond. But for now, I’m leaning towards the possibility of a short-term pullback before any further upside. Final Thoughts: Right now, I’m closely watching how the price reacts around this resistance zone. A pullback could offer a good buying opportunity, especially if it holds above the $5,480 - $5,440 support area. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $5,630 would signal that the bulls are in control and could push the market to new highs. This is a video coverage of an analysis that I did yesterday. Stay Positive!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading