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S&P 500 (SPX500)

SPX500USD: Capitalizing on Probabilities for a Bullish SurgeSPX500USD: Bullish Momentum Supported by Key Fundamentals The S&P 500 (SPX500USD) shows strong bullish potential, backed by several key fundamentals 1. Resilient economic growth: Recent GDP data indicates continued expansion despite earlier recession fears. 2. Easing inflation pressures: Core inflation metrics are trending downward, potentially allowing for a more accommodative Fed policy. 3. Strong corporate earnings: Many companies are beating earnings expectations, demonstrating business resilience. 4. Technological advancements: Ongoing AI integration across sectors is driving productivity gains and investor optimism. Probability-Based Approach for Long Positions I'm utilizing probabilities to enter long positions. My charts will showcase key probability zones and potential entry points. Let's dive into the top-down analysis. 12M: 2W: 12H: I’d love to hear your thoughts on the SPX500USD outlook!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Jasminex1x2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17 : Wednesday is CriticalIf you were paying attention to my SPY Cycle Patterns today - boy, a beautiful "top" pattern setup today. Just like my SPY Cycle Patterns predicted more than 3 years ago. If you've been following my research, you already know I've identified dual excess Phase Peak patterns that should resolve into a rollover topping pattern, sending the SPY/QQQ moving downward towards the end of this week (Sept 19-20). If the current Ultimate High price level continues to act as resistance, there is a real potential for the SPY/QQQ to move into a downward momentum breakdown the following week (Sept 23-30). But, the one thing that throws the whole topping pattern into a mess is that the RSP has already broken to new ATHs and appears to be attempting to hold above the previous high-price fractals. Thus, we are seeing the equal-weighted S&P already moving into a broad value-based rally phase. Watch this video to understand why I continue to suggest traders avoid engaging in any big trades or get greedy, thinking they are going to WIN BIG on their trades. Yes, I'm sure some people will hit their targets over the next 3-7+ days, but others will get run over (hard). Unless you really like taking the risk of getting run over by the markets or market makers, I suggest sitting back and reading a good book while the markets or traders struggle to find their exits. One thing is certain: the markets will move into a trend by the end of September—either into a breakaway rally phase or into a rollover topping phase. You'll have lots of time to position for these trends because my research shows the next cycle phase is October 7-10 (nearly two+ weeks away). So, why stress out about tomorrow's Fed Rate decision? Just sit back and wait for the markets to give you a clearer understanding of what's next. I'll create another morning video tomorrow morning. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Short
by BradMatheny
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17: Excess Phase Peak BreakThis short video explains why it is so important to often wait for the markets to show you what it really wants to do - not trying to force a trade when the markets are undecided. Many traders are likely short right now - expecting a top to setup in the markets ahead of the Fed rate decision. My research suggests a top would likely form because of the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns on the charts as well. But, the RSP rally to new ATHs over the past 3+ days gave me reason to PAUSE and really consider the potential that price may rally and break away from the Excess Phase Peak setups. Well, today we have a new ATH in the SPY. We need to wait till the end of the day to see if price gets rejected at these new ATH levels - but this is a BREAK of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. Over the past 10+ days, I've continued to share why these Excess Phase Peak patterns are one of the core constructs of price action. They happen all the time (probably 60% of all trading through any year is an Excess Phase Peak pattern). There are five constructs to the pattern. They can be Bullish or Bearish in structure. At any time after the initial PEAK/TROUGH is set, they can INVALIDATE. So, we have to stay keenly aware of when/how they can invalidate. This video will show you multiple examples of Excess Phase Peak patterns and how to use them. Get ready, we may be at the start of a moderate melt-up for the SPY targeting 585-595 or higher. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
5
SPY/QQ Plan Your Trade For 9-17 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will melt upward in early trading, finding resistance, then rolling over into a moderate downtrend. A top pattern is very similar to a reversal pattern. Where price moves higher, finds a key resistance area, tops, and then rolls downward away from the resistance area. In today's video, I take a quick look at RSP, the equal-weighted S&P500 ETF, where price levels have already moved to new ATHs. And this may be very important for all traders to consider. If the equal-weighted S&P ETF is moving to new all-time highs right now, while the QQQ and SPY struggle within the Excess Phase Peak patterns, it may be just a matter of time before the SPY invalidates the Excess Phase Peak pattern and moves to new ATHs as well. The QQQ may be a different story as that chart still shows quite a bit of upper price range before invalidating any of the Excess Phase Peak patterns. Therefore, I suggest traders stay very cautious today and tomorrow as we see how things play out. Right now, I would suggest the topping/peak pattern has about a 60% probability of playing out successfully today. Those ATHs in the RSP are more indicative of a moderate melt upward instead of a rolling top pattern - at least right now. Gold and Silver will pause a bit ahead of the Fed rate decision. All markets are in a "wait and see mode" ahead of the Fed. This is another reason why you should not be overly aggressive in your trading right now. Bitcoin is attempting to FLAG again - moving into a tighter, more consolidated price range just below $60k. I still believe an explosive upward price trend is building for BTCUSD. I believe we will see an explosive upward price trend setting up just before the elections across the SPY/QQQ and other markets as well - we have to get through the next 45 days of consolidation and uncertainty ahead of the elections. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
SP500 Can Break To All-Time Highs After A Triangle ConsolidationBack in August the SP500 turned down for a deeper correction back to 5k area, at the same time when drop on all major indexes and some big cap names were pretty aggressive. However, there was a huge spike in VIX (not shown on this chart), so it must have been a lot of fear involved, which after initial selling shows extreme pessimism and that's when the market tends to stabilize, when least expected. Well, what is most important is that we have seen some stabilization through most of the second part of August, but notice that the index did not reach new highs; it turned down at the start of the September, after moving up to 5655 area. So, we think that recent drop to 5400 area is actually subwave (C), ideally part of a complex correction, possibly a triangle in wave 4. Especially because of a recent turn up, that looks like a wave (D), so be aware of a slowdown in wave (E), which is still missing based on basic structure of a triangle pattern. Anyhow, we think that sooner or later index will break to a new highs, ideally after FED rate decision.
SP:SPXLong
by ew-forecast
NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade Idea (NASDAQ)👀 👉 Here's my take on the current NAS100 (NASDAQ) situation: The S&P 500 index is exhibiting clear signs of smart money influence. We're seeing a calculated manipulation of price action, with recent moves targeting a previous range high followed by an expansion to the downside. This pattern suggests institutional players are strategically positioning themselves for a potential bearish move. ## Interest Rate Speculation and Stop Hunting The market's reaction to rumors of lower interest rates has created a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. This rally has likely triggered a cascade of stop losses, setting the stage for a potentially significant sell-off. Such price action often precedes larger market moves, as it clears out weak hands and creates liquidity for larger players. ## Seasonal Considerations Historically, mid-September has been a bearish period for the S&P 500. This seasonal tendency aligns with our current technical setup, adding weight to the bearish thesis. It's crucial to note that while seasonality isn't deterministic, it can provide an edge when combined with other technical factors. ## Technical Outlook The daily chart shows bearish divergence on key momentum indicators. The MACD is displaying a bearish crossover, while the RSI, currently at 67.35, suggests there's ample room for downside before reaching oversold conditions . The index is also approaching overbought territory on the Stochastic oscillator, further supporting a potential reversal . ## Trade Strategy Given this confluence of factors, my bias is decidedly bearish. I'm looking to initiate short positions targeting previous support levels. Key resistance to watch is around 5,624, which aligns with recent pivot points . For entry, I'll be watching for a break and retest of the current range lows, potentially around the 5,618 level . Remember, while this analysis provides a strong directional bias, always manage your risk carefully. The S&P 500 can be volatile, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Position sizing and well-placed stops are crucial for long-term trading success. 📉✅
FX:SPX500Short
by fxtraderanthony
7
S&p 500 daily time frame Hello traders, I have observing a potential manipulation zone in the S&P 500. This suggests that the price might be artificially influenced, potentially leading to a rejection from this level. Waiting for the New York time zone for confirmation is a smart move. Here's why: * **Manipulation Zones:** These are areas where large players (institutions, hedge funds) might be trying to influence the price to their advantage. This can create false signals and make it difficult to predict the true direction. * **New York Time Zone:** The New York time zone is crucial because it's when US markets open, and many large institutional players are active. Watching the price action during this period can give you a better idea of how the market is reacting to the potential manipulation. **Remember:** Never rely on one signal alone. Always confirm your analysis with multiple indicators and the overall market context before making any trading decisions. Good luck with your trades!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by somayehbasiri
S&P 500 Faces Key Resistance Ahead of Fed Rate Cut DecisionI don't usually cover US stocks on this platform, but for those following the S&P 500, it had a strong rally over the past few days. However, it’s now facing resistance around $5,650, just shy of the all-time high set back on July 16, 2024. Despite the recent run-up, it couldn’t quite reach the resistance line, and everything now depends on how the market reacts to the Fed's rate cuts on Wednesday. If the Fed cuts rates by 0.5%, we might see a solid push upward. However, with a 0.25% cut, here are the support levels on the downside. Remember, the market can move either way this is just my take. If you have questions, leave them below, and don’t forget to hit that like button!
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it). Indexes - Disappointment for the bulls was my assumption for today and that we got. Boring sideways movement in tight trading ranges. DJI was the only market with strength, printing a new ath but closing below 41700, so probably mostly a liquidity grap. Wednesday we have FOMC and I don’t expect markets to move far away from their current ranges. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small green doji on the daily chart. Not much to comment about. Market closed 11 points above the open price and mean reversion was profitable today. I expect the triangle on the daily to hold until FOMC. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 -5670 bull case: Please see my weekly update. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears got 1 decent bear bar on the 1h chart and bulls bought it. Until bears can print 3-4 consecutive bear bars on the 1h tf, they have nothing going for them. Best they can hope for is to stay below 5670 Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Neutral between 5600-5670 and I don’t expect a break of this range until FOMC. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying bar 39 low was perfect but any bar from 39-46 was ok. Market clearly did not want to go lower then open price is always an obvious magnet on ranging days.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Comprehensive Analysis of Chevron (CVX) - 16/09/2024Chevron (CVX) is an established energy company listed in the S&P 500 index. Technical Analysis: I use moving averages as zones rather than lines. On the weekly chart, I applied the 200 EMA and 200 SMA, shading the area between them in orange to create a moving average zone. Currently, prices are finding support in this zone on the weekly chart. Additionally, the $140 level acts as a demand zone and creates confluence. On the daily chart, the ATR-based Keltner Channels are touching the lower band, indicating that downside volatility has reached its natural limits. There is also a bullish order block present. On the 4-hour chart, I use the Inverse Fisher RSI. It filters out noise and provides fewer false signals compared to the standard RSI. On the 1-hour chart, there is a noticeable decline in volume. Remember, without volume, it is difficult to break through support or resistance levels. From a technical standpoint, different timeframes are giving BUY signals. Fundamental Analysis: The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.81, which is considered normal for the sector. In the last quarter, Chevron reported total revenue of $49.66 billion and a net profit of $4.43 billion, resulting in a 9% profit margin, which meets my no-loss rule. Chevron has strong return on equity, and growth continues. Its current ratio is 1.16, meaning its short-term assets exceed its liabilities, indicating financial stability. The price-to-book ratio is 1.60, which is excellent for a company of this size. Chevron's total assets stand at $260 billion, while total liabilities are around $100 billion, meaning the company's debt-to-assets ratio is 38.51%, which is highly acceptable. The company’s annual dividend yield is 4.55%, providing a potential bonus for long-term investors. With CVX trading near its 52-week low and showing positive signals, it could be a good choice for portfolio managers.
NYSE:CVXLong
by Trader-Berke
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-16 : Gap Reversal PatternMy honest opinion related to the next 2~3 trading days is - go take a few days off and wait out the markets for the next 48+ hours. I don't believe there will be much in terms of opportunity over the next 48-72 hours as price is likely to chop around near the top of the current FLAG. The real opportunity comes late Wednesday and into Thursday/Friday as price should attempt to break downward (if my analysis is correct) and move into a solid 5-7+ days of downward price momentum. What I see happening over the next 48-72 hours is Sideways Chop. Not fun for the average trader and really not something you can make a lot of money trading unless you are very skilled at catching short-term price rotation with options. Overall, the next 48+ hours should be about observation - watching price attempt to stall, break away from this FLAG, and setting up for the bigger move near the 19th & 20th of September. I'm not telling you how or what to trade. I'm just saying I believe the next 48-72 hours will be very difficult for average traders. OK. Happy Monday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8
S&P bulls regain control, aiming for the new highAfter the major sell-off in the first week of September, the market has made a U-turn, rebounding to its previous highs. This outcome was anticipated as highly likely in my last review, though, as is often the case, the market exceeded boldest expectations. Currently, we have confirmed a weekly higher low, which provides a solid foundation for the continuation of the uptrend. It’s also worth noting that the rally is being driven by risk-on assets like XLK and XLY, reflecting growing investor confidence. The mid- and long-term outlook remains bullish, though heightened volatility is expected as we approach the US elections. Important levels: 539.4 - major weekly low. Bulls must protect this level to keep uptrend intact 565.2 – major monthly high. There might be some resistance at this level. Bulls must clear it for uptrend continuation. FOMC meeting is set for Wednesday but it is not expected to bring big surprises.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to Bullish Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure) Watch these week's price action...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
SPX500 H4 | Falling to overlap supportSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,563.51 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 5,490.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 5,655.91 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
SPX: on a verge of new ATHAfter the S&P 500 had the worst week in 2024, two weeks ago, the previous week brought the best week in 2024. This is how swift the investors sentiment has changed at the current moment. The index started the week at the level of 5.438 and reached its highest weekly level at Friday's trading session at 5.626. By gaining around 4% for the week, the index is currently only 1% lower from it's all-time highest levels. Aside from tech companies and semiconductor industry, this week utilities and industrials were also in the spotlight of the market. Published US inflation figures pushed the investors sentiment higher in expectation that the Fed now has a clear case for the first rate cut. The inflation is clearly on a down path, reaching the level of 2,5% y/y in August. Investors are perceiving that the environment of lower interest rates would help the industries in the US to increase earnings, and they are adjusting their positions accordingly. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for 19th September, where some increased volatility and market nervousness might be expected. Certainly, the Fed's decision will impact the course of equity markets during the third quarter. After the FOMC meeting its is going to be known if the S&P 500 is heading toward the fresh new ATH.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 15th—> Sept 20th)Hello Investors! 🌟 This week, US equity markets rebounded sharply as investors scooped up shares ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Let's break down the key events that shaped this rally-filled week in the markets. 📈 **Market Overview:** Following last week's heavy selling, investors took advantage of lower prices to buy into the market ahead of the Fed's September policy decision. The US 10-year yield traded 5 basis points above the 2-year, continuing the yield curve's steepening and normalization. Tuesday's debate between former President Trump and VP Harris made headlines, though it is expected to have minimal impact on the upcoming election. Investor sentiment took a midweek hit after comments from major US banks at investor conferences raised concerns, while the Fed’s Barr introduced a watered-down proposal on Basel capital requirements for banks. Additionally, soft economic data from China fueled speculation about potential stimulus measures from the PBOC. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices dipped below $70/barrel for the first time since December 2021, with ongoing demand concerns largely emanating from China. The US equity markets initially sold off after the release of August’s CPI report, which showed the owners-equivalent rent index accelerating for the second consecutive month, despite economists' and business leaders' belief that housing costs are moderating. The Yen strengthened further as BOJ officials continued to signal policy adjustments. Gold futures reached new highs, surpassing $2600 for the first time in non-inflation-adjusted terms. The ECB cut rates by 25 bps, though President Lagarde’s tone suggested the ECB may wait for further data and for the Fed to begin easing before cutting rates again. Later in the week, stocks rallied on renewed interest in the AI trade, fueled by bullish comments from Nvidia and Oracle. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, confirmed that the Blackwell chip has entered full production and will ship in Q4. Oracle’s CEO, Larry Ellison, delivered strong results and optimistic long-term growth forecasts during their earnings call, sparking enthusiasm for the tech sector. Apple also launched its latest iPhones, integrating ChatGPT into its new ‘Apple Intelligence’ initiative. In labor news, unions continued to flex their muscles, with Boeing's largest union rejecting a labor deal and announcing a strike that could slow production and impact the company’s recovery. AT&T's west coast operations and the NY Times tech guild also threatened strike action, while Amazon responded to unionization pressures by announcing a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B investment in driver training and pay hikes. By the end of the week, the S&P 500 climbed back above 5,600, trading at more than 20x next year’s expected earnings, an area that has been a point of resistance since the index's all-time highs in July. Former Fed officials and market watchers continued to push for a 50 bps rate cut, with futures markets shifting in that direction. For the week, the S&P gained 4%, the DJIA rose 2.6%, and the Nasdaq surged nearly 6%. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📈 S&P 500: Up by 4% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 2.6% - 📈 Nasdaq: Up by 6% **Economic Indicators:** - **US 10-Year Yield:** Traded 5 bps above the 2-year yield amid continued curve steepening. - **August CPI Report:** Showed the owners-equivalent rent index accelerating, raising concerns despite expectations of housing cost moderation. - **Brent Crude:** Dipped below $70/barrel for the first time since December 2021 due to demand concerns from China. - **ECB Rate Cut:** The ECB cut rates by 25 bps, with a cautious outlook for further cuts. - **Gold Prices:** Hit non-inflation-adjusted highs above $2600. **Corporate News:** - **Nvidia:** CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that Nvidia’s Blackwell chip is in full production and will ship in Q4, driving enthusiasm in the AI trade. - **Oracle:** Delivered strong earnings and bullish long-term growth forecasts, with CEO Larry Ellison predicting robust growth through 2029. - **Apple:** Launched its latest iPhone series, incorporating ChatGPT into its new ‘Apple Intelligence’ platform. - **Boeing:** Faced setbacks after its largest union rejected a labor deal, announcing a strike that could jeopardize production and the company’s recovery. - **Amazon:** Responded to unionization pressures by announcing a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B investment in driver training and pay increases. - **AT&T & NY Times Tech Guild:** Both faced potential strike actions, adding to labor-related pressures across industries. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will feature several key events: - **Fed Policy Decision** - **FOMC Dot-Plot** - **Powell Press Conference** - **U.S. Retail Sales** - **U.S. Housing Data** As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400. Quote from last week: comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 - 5700 bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. → Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook. short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPY: Short-Term Selloff Anticipated After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY: Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve approaches its rate cut decision this week, speculation is high that we may see a larger-than-expected cut of 50 basis points rather than the anticipated 25. This could trigger a short-term selloff in equities, including the SPY (S&P 500 ETF), despite the initial market reaction. The market often exhibits a “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior, and this situation could be no different. With expectations set for a 25 basis point cut, a surprise 50 basis point reduction might lead to concerns about the underlying economic conditions. This could prompt a selloff in major indices, including SPY, as traders and investors react to the Fed’s unexpected move. In the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision, SPY might see a brief uptick as market participants adjust their positions and optimism prevails. However, this short-term rally could be quickly overshadowed by a broader correction. As the market digests the implications of the Fed's actions and potential economic concerns come to light, SPY is likely to experience a pullback. For those looking to capitalize on this potential downturn, the $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could be a prudent choice. These puts offer a strategic way to hedge against or profit from the anticipated short-term decline in SPY. Given the expected correction following the Fed's rate cut, this option could provide significant value as SPY faces downward pressure. While SPY may experience an initial rise in response to the Fed’s decision, the broader market sentiment is likely to shift towards risk aversion, leading to a correction in the weeks following the announcement. By October 18, the broader market and SPY could be reflecting these adjustments, making the $550 puts a timely investment. In summary, while SPY might see some early gains next week, a correction is expected to follow as the market reacts to the Fed’s decision. The $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could offer a valuable opportunity for those anticipating this short-term volatility.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the trading sessions of the current week, the S&P 500 Index has exhibited notable resilience, demonstrating a movement toward the Mean Resistance level of 5648 and the Key Resistance, and completed the Inner Index Rally level of 5666. A resilient rebound to this level in the upcoming week’s session is highly likely, with the possibility of further movement to the subsequent Inner Index Rally at 5739. Conversely, an anticipated downward movement toward the targeted Mean Support level of 5557 is expected upon achieving a resilient rebound.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPY 09/12Well on track for the big blow-off top idea. Expecting to see 565 in the next few days, then potentially higher to new ATH Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
AMEX:SPYLong
by variable_not_defined
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-13 : Rally DayPlease take a minute to watch this video, and possibly some of my earlier videos from this week, as we continue to see the SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin continue to move through an Excess Phase Peak pattern. It is very important for traders to understand the eventual A/B outcome of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. For the SPY/QQQ, we are still flagging into what is very likely to be a rolling top pattern - setting up a broad downward price trend in the near future. The only thing that can stop that rollover top is a rally to new ATHs (which can happen to invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern). Because of these pattern setups, it is important to see were the SPY ends this current rally phase and if the SPY can rally above the recent ATH levels or not. Gold is moving into a temporary topping pattern above $2600. I would think the 2613 level would be the ideal topping level for Gold - but I would expect Gold to struggle to move up to the 2613 level at this point. Bitcoin is showing an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. I go into detail about this pattern and what we need to look for over the next few weeks. Ultimately, I believe the markets are moving into a transitional price rollover ahead of the election. Plan, prepare, and Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong follow through by the bulls after another nasty bear trap. On lower time frames we got some sell spikes but mostly due to bulls taking profits and not strong bears shorting. Bullish price action can’t be denied and on the daily charts we are moving closer to the shallow bear trend lines from the ath and we are mostly inside triangles. Daily charts tell the story and it’s bullish so we can’t expect a strong bear reversal tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is still my preferred pattern for now. Tomorrow we could see 5640 but anything above is uncertain. At that level I would get out of most longs. Currently I don’t have any interest in selling, since we have seen many bear traps. Today bears could not close a 1h bar below the 20ema, so look how market behaves if we get there again tomorrow. Buy on strength and don’t get fooled into shorts on strong selling. It was strong but disappeared in an instance and bulls melted higher again. current market cycle: t rading range and also minor bull trend inside since we are making higher lows and higher highs key levels: 5400 -5650 bull case: Bulls bought 5550 until bears gave up. The selling around the open was strong enough to trap many bears and that’s why the move up was so violent again. Bulls are in full control until we make lower lows again. Targets above are obvious. Next one is open of the month + high of the month around 5670 and above that is the ath 5721. Last time we got above 5600, market did go sideways for 10 days and this time we could see a breakout above or below somewhat faster. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 5580 but since they could not close below the 1h for 3h, they gave up and market moved up in a perfect small pullback bull trend which held above the 1m 20ema for an hour and 35 points. So what’s next for bears? Do or die moment around 5650 to keep it a lower high. If they fail, we most likely print a new ath. Rough guess is that bears won’t try to close the week with a red bar but just keep it below 5670. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Max bullishness as long as the 1h 20ema is not broken and until we hit 5650/5660. I’d close longs there on any weakness and probably won’t do anything until next week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Only intraday scalps currently. Still think next 500 points are made to the downside and not up. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap on the US open was as perfect of a trade as it gets.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds