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S&P 500 (SPX500)

Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick Pattern. Series IIWere you ready or not with recent sell off on financial markets, - this one should be not a surprise. It's been already discussed in publication " 👀 Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick " , that in unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, the Three Black Crows pattern is generally quite common pattern. Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick Pattern Three Black Crows is a continuation pattern, being a term used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that can predict a reversal in an uptrend. Classic candlestick charts show "Open", "High", "Low" and "Close" prices of a bar for a particular security. For markets moving up, the candlestick is usually white, green or blue. When moving lower they are black or red. The Three Black Crows pattern consists of three consecutive long-body candles that opened with a gap above or inside the real body of the previous candle, but ultimately closed lower than the previous candle. Often traders use this indicator in combination with other technical indicators or chart patterns to confirm a reversal. Restrictions on the use of three black crows If the "Three Black Crows" pattern has already shown significant downward movement, it makes sense to be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation or a pullback before further downward movement. The best way to assess whether a stock or other asset is oversold is to look at other technical indicators, such as relative strength index (RSI), moving averages, trend lines, or horizontal support and resistance levels. Many traders typically look to other independent chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakout rather than relying solely on the Three Black Crows pattern. Overall, it is open to some free interpretation by traders. For example, when assessing the prospects of building a pattern into a longer continuous series consisting of “black crows” or the prospects of a possible rollback. In addition, other indicators reflect the true pattern of the three black crows. For example, a Three Black Crows pattern may involve a breakout of key support levels, which can independently predict the start of a medium-term downtrend. Using additional patterns and indicators increases the likelihood of a successful trading or exit strategy. Real example of Three black crows Since there are a little more than one day left before the closing of the third candle in the combination, the candlestick combination (given in the idea) is a still forming pattern, where (i) each of the three black candles opened above the closing price of the previous one, that is, with a small upward gap, (ii ) further - by the end of the time frame the price decreases below the price at close of the previous time frame, (iii) volumes are increased relative to the last bullish time frame that preceded the appearance of the first of the “three crows”, (iv) the upper and lower wicks of all “black crows” are relatively short and comparable with the main body of the candle. Historical examples of the Three Black Crows pattern Here's an example what's happened early in April, 2024 And here's an example what's going on right now in August, 2024 Potentially it may appear again and again. Don't miss it out! As history has repeated itself already, technical graph for S&P500 indicates on potential recovery, up to 5800 points, until November, 2024 (U.S. presidential elections).
SP:SPX
by Pandorra
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-5 - CAUTION: Extreme VolatilityThis video highlights why I believe skilled traders are taking minimal, targeted trades in the current market environment. With the current market volatility as crazy as it is, I don't believe anyone should be swinging for the fences. If you learn anything from my videos over the past few weeks - know this. The #1 rule for trading is to protect capital (at all times). You can be right or wrong while trading. But you have to learn to live to trade another day. This crazy market volatility could have made a small fortune for some people but destroyed others. Until we see the SPY move up above $535-$540, there is still a big risk the markets could fall further. Watch this video to learn more. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
Look Out Below Market Trends Up This WeekWorking on very preliminary theories of where we could be based on the movement so far. Check out my last analysis from a month ago to see why I thought we were due a major market correction. Theory has us in: Supercycle 2, Cycle wave 1, Primary wave 1, Intermediate wave 2. Assuming we are in the very early stages of a large macro level wave 1 down (Cycle 1), we are likely inside the first wave (Primary 1) of that movement. We may have just completed Intermediate wave 1 down, however, the pace was so fast it may still be early in Intermediate wave 1. The wave 3 reversal indicators signaled much more than normal which means they all called the end of the impulse waves correctly, or the first group in the currently marked Minor wave 1 was inaccurate. As it is laid out now, Minor wave 2 retraced around 50% of wave 1's drop. Wave 3 extended nearly 161% of wave 1's movement. Wave 4 retraced nearly all of wave 2's movement and wave 5 extended nearly 261% of wave 3's movement. These are all close to Fibonacci movements commonly used for identifying reversals. Although Minor wave 3 as marked is short at just 12 bars long, wave 5 was 11 bars long (as marked) maintaining a wave principle on 3's length. There is enough here to consider Intermediate wave 1's movement complete. Confirmation of this theory should occur if Intermediate wave 2 sees general upward movement over the next week. Intermediate wave 1 currently measures 82 bars. 38.2% of this length is 31.324 bars, so I have rounded up to 32 bars for a premature potential length of Intermediate wave 2. As far as real world catalysts, the primary earth mover is likely in the Middle East. The world is bracing for a coordinated Iranian strike against Israel. A few articles today mentioned the Tisha B'Av which takes place on August 12-13 as a potential retaliation date. This would begin around bar 33 for Intermediate wave 2. IF we truly are in the early stages of a wave 2, a third wave with a simple common wave extension of 161.8% would place a low at 4731.93. The next normal wave 3 retracement at 261.8% would put a low at 4150. IF we are truly in a longer term major bearish cycle, 4150-4731 is a normal move here. A catalyst to get the market there could be significant unrest in the Middle East capable of not only disrupting energy supply, but shipping, manufacturing, and elevated geopolitical tensions.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
S&P weekly consolidation in progress; bears prove controlLast week was marked by hectic price action in both directions. Bulls failed to set a daily low for two consecutive days (Monday-Tuesday), which logically led to a strong bearish attack. Then something peculiar happened – the price pivoted near the previous low and went up during the overnight session. The market opened with a huge gap on Wednesday, held the open, and even managed to rally further in the regular session. I can only imagine how many short traders, who had done everything right, suffered from this. This price action also confused many long traders, including myself, by making us believe that the weekly consolidation was coming to an end. But Thursday turned the board 180 degrees again with a psychotic bearish move, wiping out more than 2% of the market value. Again, as with the bullish rally, there was no obvious trigger unless you believe that PMI data could wield such importance. At this point, we have the following disposition: 1. The market is still in a weekly uptrend. Until sellers take down the previous major low (491), nothing changes in this regard. 2. Bears have proved strong control over the weekly timeframe. We should respect this. 3. Bears were also able to start monthly consolidation, another sign of their strength. All in all, I wouldn’t consider any long-term “buys” until bulls manage to set a convincing weekly low, even then with caution. Shorting is an option but is very tricky in light of what happened last week. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
Can futures predict market movements?I was wondering if futures can predict market movement. Here's a monthly chart showing two values: * green: the difference between ES futures and SPX, divided by SPX to keep it proportional in a rising market * orange: SPX itself It shows: 1. Futures fluctuate over the 3-month cycle 2. SPX declines after peaks in the difference between ES futures and SPX - see 2001, 2008, 2018. Over-optimism? 3. But there was no peak before the decline in 2022 !? 4. Bulls want to see the difference well below zero - see 2003-04, 2001-17 and 2020-22 5. In 2023 the difference between ES futures and SPX is back to levels seen in 2000 and 2007, which preceded drops in SPX of around 46% and 52% Not trading advice. Do you own research
SP:SPX
by lavoriamo
Update: VIXIts been a while but those who follow me know I posted extensively about the VIX months back and as we can see, the VIX is very much in the news lately due to its current historical spike. It was not one of the more popular topics at the time I was talking about it but as you can see on this chart outlined here, that this is an extremely powerful resource and should be one of my most popular posts in my opinion. The VIX was and still is highly accurate in regard to being an indicator of when to be risk on vs risk off. The levels I drew have been respected for the last few years perfectly and historically after we've seen sudden spikes, they were short lived and the index came back down to levels that were very friendly to bulls. Historically, the last time volatility was at this level, Covid Pandemic had just happened. Shortly after markets rallied 100% before finally entering a bear market TWO YEARS later. In the coming weeks keep an eye on the VIX to see if it returns back below 15 basis points in that sweet Buy and Hold area that I have labeled on the chart.
TVC:VIX
by TradeVibez
Are We There Yet? A Market Top ExposeAfter re-calculations and re-assessing, I think I am ready to move forward. I have moved off my position that the 2022 correction was a Supercycle 2 correction and macro market top. I would be on the bandwagon the market is primed to move up indefinitely if not for the massive amounts of debt and cautious discretionary spending. I am still in the camp of prices and wages requiring a re-balance. Companies will have to lower their prices to meet customers at a more realistic price point. The companies that fail to get to that price point will go out of business. I am settling on the side of Supercycle I ending very soon and a larger corrective Supercycle II will take hold next. I am at this position due to the location of important wave 3s in the following chart: My wave 3 indicator at the bottom will paint a light blue background at potential wave 3s. Close gaps between painted backgrounds are common at wave 3 of 3s as is observed by the yellow line around August 2021. The strongest point on the RSI and my wave 3 indicator generally occurs at wave 3 of 3 of 3 (and more levels of 3) which occurred with the white line in January 2018. Additional wave 3 indicators occurred in late 2013 and early 2014 which were likely in the fifth wave of Cycle wave 1. Based on this premise, Cycle wave 3 likely ended in January 2022 and the October low was Cycle wave 4. This would put the market in Cycle wave 5 currently. Cycle wave 1 lasted 5-6 years, while wave 3 did the same. Cycle wave 5 does not have to last long, but there is always a chance it does something similar. Currently, we are just over a year and a half into this wave which may be too quick for it to end. So far we can see a 5 wave structure on the weekly chart. In this 5 wave structure, wave 1 had a wave extension, likely indicating waves 3 and 5 will be shorter in length. The wave 3 indicator has a gap between painted backgrounds in March of this year indicating this was possibly wave 3 and wave 3 of 3. Wave 4 likely bottomed with the low in April. This would place us currently in wave 5. The main question is if all five of these waves are Primary waves inside of the final cycle wave or if these are Intermediate waves inside of the First Primary wave. The pullback in consumer spending has me believing we are closer to the end of a major cycle instead of in the early stages of a multi-year bullish cycle. Additionally, even though the year over year inflation rate is no longer as high of a number, inflation has not actually declined yet as prices continue constantly go up. Furthermore, the year over year inflation rate remains higher than the year over year retail sales numbers. If things were healthy as the talking heads make it seem, retail sales rate should be higher than the rate of inflation as this would show people are spending more money than they are losing to inflation. This is not the case which is why I think a major re-balancing (and yes recession) must still occur. I could be wrong as I have been, or my inaccuracies have been delayed to this point. In trying to identify the current wave 5, I have switched over to the SPX500USD chart to find potential wave 3s and 3 of 3s. The major wave 3s in this fifth wave are identified by the vertical white lines. It looks like the wave extension once again resides in the first wave. Wave 3 of 3 for wave 1 was on May 7th. Wave 3 of 3 of 3 was on June 6, and wave 3 ended on June 12. If these are true, the major fourth wave likely ended at the June 14 low. This once again places us currently in the fifth wave. This is the fifth wave of a wave 5. The question remains as to how large will the next correction be. The current top on the SPX500USD chart is 5530 from June 28th, but it will likely change before week's end with potential decreases in holiday trading volume. On the main chart, I have plotted out potential Fib levels (noted on the right side) for a fifth wave extension if Cycle wave 3 ran from the 2016 low to the January 2022 top. 123.6% of this movement is where we currently are and can be a potential major wave 5 end point. The next Fib of interest would be 138.20% which is near 5967 (indicating much more bullish activity ahead). Regardless, a downturn is likely coming soon. If it starts within the next few weeks, the bottom could occur within the next 2-3 years. If the market blows past the current top, we will likely have a few more years of upward movement followed by a 3-5 year drop thereafter. A large drop now will not be great, but the economies of the country and world could "right themselves" in a quicker manner which would be best for everyone instead of longer and more drawn out. We shall see what happens, as I have been wrong plenty of times in the past. I can keep calling for a drop and will eventually be correct, but the batting average would not even be worthy of the minor leagues.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
SPX500 to continue in the downward move?US500 - 24H expiry Traded to the lowest level in 12 weeks. We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 5136 from 4930 to 5680. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs. We look to set shorts at our bespoke indicator level (5273). We look to Sell at 5273 (stop at 5321) Our profit targets will be 5150 and 5136 Resistance: 5273 / 5338 / 5404 Support: 5175 / 5136 / 5091 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
SPX: Where to Expect the Price Will Land?I've identified several targets, and most of them have been reached… except one last one. 1. 100% symmetrical extension of the red box —> Reached. 2. 100% symmetrical extension of the orange box —> Reached. 3. 100% symmetrical projection from A to B , then projected from C . D = the target price —> Reached. 4. D barely served as a support. The price went through it directly without any proper pullback. Therefore, I expect the price to double the original force to reach D’ . - Be aware that in this final stage, price movements can become unpredictable and illogical. Finding a meaningful stop loss can be difficult, and if you do, it’s usually broad and uncertain. - Thus, if you have a short position, hold it tightly towards the ultimate goal of D’ . At the same time, set up a solid defense line to protect your profits. - Personally, I’ll set my stop loss at D , the original target price and the previous high. If the price takes out the current low and forms another lower high, I’ll move my stop loss to the new lower high. Not Financial Advice The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by stock_adelie
S&P500 - Bathed in a Sea of Red: Market Turbulence AheadFutures Meltdown: Sharp Decline U.S. index futures fell sharply on Monday following downbeat forecasts from Bad earnings in the second quarter and increasing geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 dropped sharply as noted last week and continues to trend bearish. Bullish Scenario: For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5320, potentially reaching 5372 and 5409. Bearish Scenario: If trading continues below 5281, the price is expected to drop to 5168 and 5026. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5226 - Resistance Levels: 5259, 5320, 5372 - Support Levels: 5192, 5168, 5121 **Today's Expected Trading Range:** The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance of 5281 and the support of 5121. ------- Bathed in a Sea of Red: Market Turbulence Ahead Asian share markets are experiencing a significant downturn, with investors rapidly exiting riskier positions. The sell-off is widespread, impacting popular trades such as yen carry trades and cryptocurrencies. This sudden rush to liquidate positions has led to increased volatility and reduced market liquidity. Investors are reportedly closing profitable positions to cover losses in other areas, contributing to the market instability. This dynamic might explain why gold prices have struggled to maintain upward momentum, despite its traditional role as a safe haven during times of market stress. PREVIOUS IDEA:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Macro Monday 58 - Recession Warning Charts Worth Watching Macro Monday 58 Recession Charts Worth Watching If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit these charts at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have hit any recessionary trigger levels. They are very handy to have at a glance. CHART 1 10 - 2 year treasury yield spread vs U.S. Unemployment Rate Subject chart above Summary ▫️ The chart demonstrates how the inversion of the Yield Curve (a fall below 0 for the blue area) coincides with U.S. Unemployment Rate bottoming (green area) prior to recession onset (red areas). ▫️ The yellow box on the chart gives us timelines on how many months passed, historically, before a confirmed economic recession after the yield curves first definitive turn back up towards the 0% level (also see circled numbers showing connecting bottoming unemployment rate). ▫️ Using this approach, you can see that the average time frame prior to recession onset is 13 months (April 2024) and the max timeframe is 22 months (Jan 2025). ▫️ This is only a consideration based on historical data and does not guarantee a recession or a recession timeline however it significantly raises the probability of a recession, and the longer into the timeframe we are the higher that recession probability. ▫️ We typically we have a recession (red zones) either during or immediately after the yield curve moves back above the zero level. At present we are at -0.08 and fast approaching the zero level which is one of the most concerning data points of this week. ▫️ The unemployment rate moved from a low of 3.4 in April 2023 to 4.3 in July 2024. This is a significant increase and is typical prior to recession onset. Conclusion ▫️ If both the 10 - 2 year treasury yield spread and the U.S. Unemployment Rate continue in their upwards trajectory in coming weeks and months, this is a significant risk off signal and recession imminent warning. ▫️ The Sahm Rule triggered this week which has been one of the most accurate indicators of a recession starting. It is triggered when the three-month moving average of the U.S Unemployment Rate above rises by 0.50 percentage points or more, relative to its low over the previous 12 months. The Sahm rule triggering adds to recession concerns, however the designer of the rule has stated that I may not be accurate factoring in recent events like COVID-19 which has thrown unemployment and economic data to extremes. What is the 10-2 year Treasury yield spread? The 10-2 year Treasury yield spread represents the difference between the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds. It’s calculated by subtracting the 2-year yield from the 10-year yield. When this spread turns negative (inverts), it’s significant because it often precedes economic downturns. An inversion suggests that investors expect lower future interest rates, which can signal concerns about economic growth and potential recession. In essence, it’s a barometer of market sentiment and interest rate expectations What is the U.S. Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the total labor force in the U.S (which includes both employed and unemployed individuals). CHART 2 Interest Rate Historic Timelines and impact on S&P500 Summary ▫️ This chart aims to illustrate the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s Interest rate hike policy and the S&P500’s price movements. ▫️ This is obviously pertinent factoring in the expectations of a rate cut in Sept 2024. This chart which I shared in Sept 2023 may have accurately predicted this likely Sept 2023 interest rate cut but is this positive for the market? ▫️ Interest Rate increases have resulted in positive S&P500 price action ▫️ Interest rate pauses are the first cautionary signal of potential negative S&P500 price action however 2 out of 3 pauses have resulted in positive price action. The higher the rate the higher the chance of a market decline during the pause period. ▫️ Interest rate pauses have ranged from 6 to 16 months (avg. of 11 months). ▫️ Interest rate reductions have been the major, often advanced warning signal for significant and continued market decline (red circles on chart) ▫️ Interest rates can decrease for 2 to 6 months before the market eventually capitulates. ▫️ In 2020 rates decreased for 6 months as the market continued its ascent and in 2007 rates decreased for 2 months as the market continued its ascent. This tells us that rates can go down as prices go up but that it rarely lasts with any gains completely wiped out within months. Conclusion: ▫️ Rate cuts should signal significant concern as most are followed immediately by recession or followed by a recession within 2 to 6 months of the initial cut. This is high risk territory. ▫️ During the week I seen the 2 year treasury bill which matches closely the Federal Reserve interest rate cycle. The spread developing between the two suggests rate cuts are imminent. Remember point one above. The chart below: CHART 3 Relationship between 2 Year Bonds and Interest Rate ▫️ Very briefly, you can see the red areas where gaps formed when the Federal Reserve interest rate was lagging behind the 2 year treasury bonds declines. ▫️ Currently there is a large gap of 1.74% between the two data sets. The last time we had gaps like this were prior to the 2000 and 2007 recessions. Even prior to COVID-19 you can see the Federal reserve was playing catch up. What to watch for in coming weeks and months? ▫️ If both the 10 - 2 year treasury yield spread and the U.S. Unemployment Rate continue in their upwards trajectory in coming weeks and months, this is a significant risk off signal and recession imminent warning. ▫️ Since 1999 the Federal reserve interest pauses have averaged at 11 months. July 2024 is the 11th month. This suggests rate cuts are imminent. ▫️ The 2 year bond yield which provides a lead on interest rate direction is suggesting that rates are set to decline in the immediate future and that the Fed might lagging in their rate cuts. Furthermore, rate cuts are anticipated in Sept 2024 by market participant's. ▫️ Finally, rate cuts should signal significant concern as most are followed immediately by recession or followed by a recession within 2 to 6 months of the initial cut. Yet the market appears to be calling out for this. This is high risk territory. Combine this with a treasury yield curve rising above the 0 level and an increasing U.S. unemployment rate and things look increasingly concerning. We can keep any eye on these charts for a lead on what might happen next. I will be reviewing some other charts over coming days around jobless claims and ISM figures to see how positive and negative we are looking. PUKA
FRED:T10Y2Y
by PukaCharts
4
Eyeing the Key 0.618 Fibonacci Level Amid Rising Wedge BreakdownCurrent Price Action: - The S&P 500 is currently trading around 5,346.55, having experienced a recent pullback. - A significant decline of about 13.51% from the recent highs is indicated, bringing the index to around 4,703.08, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Fibonacci Retracement: - The 0.618 Fibonacci level at approximately 4,703.08 is a critical area to watch. This level is typically considered a strong support zone in technical analysis, and a bounce from this level could be anticipated if buyers step in. Rising Wedge Pattern: - A rising wedge pattern has been identified, which is generally a bearish signal. This pattern suggests that the recent uptrend might be losing momentum and could lead to a significant price correction. - The break below the lower trendline of the rising wedge confirms the bearish outlook, supporting the expectation that the price might head toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Support and Resistance Levels: - Immediate support is seen at the 0.5 Fibonacci level around 4,887.58. - The major support level to watch is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 4,703.08. - On the resistance side, the recent high near 5,669.34 acts as a critical resistance level. If the index manages to reverse and break above this level, it could invalidate the bearish scenario. Technical Indicators: - The moving averages are currently showing a downward slope, indicating bearish momentum. - The EMA ribbons (colored bands) are compressing, suggesting a potential shift in trend. Conclusion: - Given the break of the rising wedge pattern and the target of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the outlook for the S&P 500 appears bearish in the short term. - Traders should watch for a potential bounce at the 0.618 level around 4,703.08, as it might serve as a strong support area. - If the index fails to hold this level, further downside towards the 4,440 region could be expected.
TVC:SPXShort
by CryptoFallen
2
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend. key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. → Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024. current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500. chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
7