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S&P 500 (SPX500)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-3 : Reversal Rally Today.Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Reversal Rally. After yesterday's CRUSH pattern (on the Labor Day holiday), we should expect the indexes to persist in a moderate rally phase (or melt-up) today. I believe yesterday's CRUSH pattern played out very nicely on the ES. Today's Reversal Rally pattern should result in the ES attempt to move back to 5653-5660. For the SPY, that will be a move back to 563.00 to 563.40. Overall, I believe today will show a solid attempt to move higher (melting upward) as the price slides into the end of this week very sideways/flat. Starting on Sept 9-10, we should start to move into a rally phase for the SPY/QQQ. Sit tight until then. These intra-day swings are perfect for day trading Gunslingers. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BradMatheny
Tech Booms Versus Emerging MarketsWhen capitalism nearly died in 2008, major stock market indices experienced >50% drawdowns from all-time highs. After unprecedented interventions by the Federal Reserve — and a historic surge in government debt to GDP — tech, growth, and the S&P 500 have seen stellar returns. (QQQ, VUG, & SPY respectively above). On the other hand — small caps (VB), value (VTV), real estate (VNQ), developed markets (VEA), and emerging markets (IEMG) — have significantly underperformed. Tech companies have become more valuable than most countries’ GDP. Recently, the total market cap for top tech companies has surpassed $14T. Will the tech boom continue upwards or is it time for small caps plus value to mean revert to a fair historical share of the total market? Tech also leads dominance for the U.S. versus other developed and emerging markets. More recently, the divergence is especially striking in percent returns and drawdown visualizations since 2020.
AMEX:SPY
by MikeCoMacro
Stock feedback loopStock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader. Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior . Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by citsvar
S&P recovers; bulls maintain long-term controlThe last week of August was sluggish, despite several exciting events. First, NVDA’s earnings, although very strong, failed to boost the market beyond its daily trading range. The GDP and inflation data (positive) released later also didn’t provide sufficient momentum, and the market continued to bracket. The week closed at the high, but buyers didn’t manage to break out of the trading range and confirm control of the daily timeframe. We can conclude that the market has reached a temporary balance—both bulls and bears seem content with the current price and lack the conviction to initiate strong moves. Zooming out to the monthly view, August closed green, near the historical high. The long lower wick signifies a bullish rally that brought the price up from the low, indicating the strength and conviction of the bulls. Although the bulls didn’t manage to achieve a new high, they still maintain long-term control. Overall, the market is still in a monthly and weekly uptrend. Even if sellers manage to set a weekly lower high in September, it is unlikely to mark the start of a trend reversal. Buyers have created enough space for potential weekly consolidation that will not threaten their long-term control. Important levels: Last major weekly trend high (565). If buyers manage to move above and hold they will confirm continuation of monthly uptrend. Last major weekly trend low (510). Buyers must protect this level if they want to keep long term control Short Term Trading range (555-564). Breaking out from the range in either direction will mark gaining of a short-term control.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Major Sectors that may influence US Markets this week!Health Care Following an extended consolidation phase from December 2021 to August 2024, the healthcare index has developed an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. With a recent breakout, the index is now set to experience significant upward momentum. Industrials Similar to the healthcare index, the industrials sector has also established an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. Following its breakout, this index has shown positive movement. With a recent breakout from a brief consolidation phase, the index is ready to climb once more. Financials The financial sector plays a vital role in the US stock market. Recently, the financial index experienced a robust breakout after a lengthy consolidation phase, indicating that this sector could enhance the overall US market. Real Estate The real estate sector has faced challenges for a considerable time, with the index suffering a significant downturn. However, following a recent breakthrough, the index is making progress toward recovery.
SP:SPFLong
by NaranjCapital
1
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Current bullish leg looks more like a leg in a trading range than something of a new bull trend that breaks above the previous ath. It’s 50/50 if bulls can print a new ath or this stays a lower high. It’s too high to buy for anything but intraday and too early to short unless you short small and have a stop above 5800. It’s a bullish structure but you would be buying very high in a potential trading range. Bad R:R. Quote from last week: comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls need to break above 5670 if they want a new ath and it look’s very good after Friday. If they fail on Monday, I have my doubts that they can get it. Bulls are still clearly in control of the market or we would have been trading below the daily ema already. Will be interesting to see how many bears come around above 5700 and bulls taking profit, if we get there. Invalidation is below 5550. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5652 and now we are at 5661. 9 points off. I do think that was a perfect outlook. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction is pure speculation. Don’t bet on it. I do think the climactic bull rally is over and market is going sideways before the next bigger breakout. Only above 5750 can bulls dream about a breakout above the big bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 30, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the current week's trading sessions, the S&P 500 Index has exhibited notable fluctuations, initially reaching the Mean Support level of 5570 and subsequently demonstrating resilience by rebounding toward the specified targets outlined in the preceding weekly analysis, encompassing the completed Inner Index Rally at 5666 and Key Resistance level at 5667. Beyond those targets, the focus is on attaining the extended rebound targets, specifically the next Inner Index Rally at 5745 and the long-awaited Outer Index Rally at 5840. It is essential to recognize that achieving these targets will likely prompt a selling price action.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Why ORB + VWAP is Your New Best Friend in Trading -No, SeriouslySP:SPX Hey there, traders! Deno Trading here;👋 Stop feeling like the market is just a one big, mysterious puzzle, and felt you're missing the piece that makes everything click? Well, strap in, because today we're diving into the magic of the Open Range Breakout (ORB) strategy, sprinkled with a little VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) magic dust. Spoiler alert: This combo is like peanut butter and jelly for traders—simple, effective, and deliciously profitable. The Chart (aka "The Battlefield") Take a look at the chart above—our trusty S&P 500 on a 15-minute time frame. Notice those blue zones? That’s your ORB, the first 15-30 minutes of market action where all the cool kids (a.k.a. the big institutions) are making their moves. The VWAP line? That’s the referee, keeping everyone honest. Now, let’s break down why ORB works most of the time (we're not wizards, after all, just really good strategists). ORB: The Reliable Wingman Imagine ORB as your super-reliable wingman. It’s there at the start of the trading day, setting the boundaries. If the price breaks out of this range, it’s like getting the go-ahead from your wingman to approach—“Yeah, this one's a keeper.” In our chart, you can see how every time the price breaks above or below the ORB, it either rockets off to the moon 🌕 or dives deep into the abyss. And just like in life, we always want to go with the flow—if the price breaks out, we’re in for the ride. VWAP: The Truth Serum Now, let’s talk VWAP. Think of VWAP as the lie detector of the trading world. When the price is above VWAP, it’s like the market is saying, “I’m feeling good, let’s keep pushing higher.” Below VWAP? Well, it’s like the market’s had a rough night out, and it’s probably heading home early. In this chart, you’ll notice how the price interacts with VWAP after breaking out of the ORB. When the price stays above VWAP after a breakout, it’s a sign that the bulls are in control—cue the confetti! 🎉 But when it dips below, the bears start growling, and you might want to reconsider your long positions. Jokes Aside But Hey: ORB Always Works (Except When It Doesn’t) Let’s be real for a second—ORB mostly works. Kind of like how your Wi-Fi mostly works until you really need it. But when ORB does work, it’s like hitting the jackpot. You’re basically riding the wave that everyone else is trying to catch. And if it doesn’t work? Well, blame it on the market gremlins and move on. Why and Why again: ORB + VWAP = Trading BFFs Let me wrap up that if you’re not using ORB with VWAP, you’re missing out on a killer combo. These two are like Batman and Robin, or coffee and donuts—they just make sense together. So, the next time you’re staring at your charts, remember: Trust in the ORB, let VWAP be your guide, and don’t forget to laugh at the market’s little quirks and use the news as your catalysts. Because at the end of the day, trading should be fun, profitable, and maybe just a little bit magical. Now go forth and conquer those charts, my fellow traders! 🚀 Deno Trading in and out!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
Key stores of value over economic history: SP500 vs GoldWhen the pandemic shocked markets in 2020, the Fed quickly printed trillions of dollars (while purchasing bonds to support corporations and the government). As the U.S central bank’s balance sheet surged, so did the broad money supply in close parallel with stock markets and gold prices. Unlike the Fed’s intervention during the Great Financial Crisis — plus a similarly unprecedented fiscal expansion — consumer prices spiked at the fastest pace since the 1970’s. Since 2019 (and even as far back as 1971 when the U.S. broke the dollar’s tie to gold), both gold and especially the S&P 500 have been reliable “stores of value.” Since around 1970, both gold and the S&P 500 (which looks even more impressive accounting for dividends) are up nearly 7,000% versus a dollar designed to lose value every year. Granted there have also been several harrowing drawdowns for both the S&P 500 and gold. Meanwhile, consumer prices are up *only* 700% since the dollar lost its golden luster. If history is any guide… It leaves us with a simple framework for wealth preservation: If you work hard to earn $10,000, don’t let it decay under your metaphorical mattress for multiple decades thereafter. Gold and the S&P 500 have historically been reliable assets to preserve wealth. However, timing is greatly important as well.
SP:SPX
by MikeCoMacro
US Markets Cleared For A 13% to 24% Rally - Get SomeThis video highlights why I believe the US markets are ready to make a big move higher over the next 12 to 24+ months. Many people suggest the markets will crack or crash, or we will experience some black/grey swan event. I'm afraid I have to disagree with this belief. Yes, there is always a chance we will see some market event. However, to disrupt the US/global economy, there would have to be some event that disrupts the world, not just one or two smaller countries. I do believe the US is making a broad transition into the 21st century, and new leadership (Govt) is required to make that happen. But I also believe the seeds have been planted for exponential growth over the next 10-20+ years - and many traders are too focused on the crash dummies to see the real potential. Watch this video. Share your comments if you like. I believe we will see pullbacks and rotations on the way up - but I don't think we'll see any big crash event until after 2031 (or later). Get some. This is going to be BIG. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:RSPLong
by BradMatheny
Yield Curve De-Inverting: A Bearish September IndicatorFlying under the radar for much of this month is the spread between the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year note. The gap is now just five basis points, having traded at negative 0.5ppt as recently as June 25. As we enter September, notoriously the worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500, if we see short rates continue to fall while the 10-year holds steady, I assert that it would be a bearish indicator for the S&P 500. Here’s how it might play out: if we see a weak payroll report on Friday, September 6, then chances are bad news will be seen as bad news, resulting in a flight to safety in the Treasury market. Of course, intermediate-term notes could see significant upside pressure, leading to a drop in the 10-year. The next key report following the August NFP update is the CPI report later in September. After today’s in-line PCE numbers, there should be a firm beat on where inflation stands. Now that earnings season is over, the focus will turn back to the macro. Considering that the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remains sharply in the red, we need to see better economic data to help support the growth narrative looking ahead. Sure, the Q2 second update on US real GDP growth was solid, and the Q3 tracking numbers are sanguine, but the market will be forward-looking. So, keep your eye on the 2s10s spread—a yield curve disinversion during this spooky seasonal stretch could bring about volatility.
TVC:US10YShort
by mikezaccardi
BITCOIN - Analyzing previous Bitcoin cycles combined with DataIf you look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin and examine the three previous cycles in crypto, you can see where we currently stand. This doesn’t guarantee that we’ll go up from here, but it does show that the chart often follows a similar pattern every cycle. Price movements are a universal phenomenon seen across all charts in various sectors, not just crypto. Often, you’ll notice an asset testing its all-time high (ATH) and then taking a “breath.” After that, the asset typically moves beyond its ATH and embarks on a bullish journey. The market tends to become more greedy once it surpasses the ATH because it means everyone in the market is in profit. Of course, it depends on what you bought, but the principle remains the same. I see a lot of people worried about where we’re headed next. Nothing is for certain, but stop reading the news and worrying about recessions. England and Germany are currently in recessions and have just broken their ATHs. Recessions have nothing to do with price action. Many are also concerned that the markets will crash once the rate cut season starts, which is highly likely to occur in September. However, historical data suggests otherwise. If you look back 70 years, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% return one year after the first rate cut. By using data and following cycles, like the one below and the 18.6-year real estate and economic cycle, it becomes much easier to handle the drawdowns and negativity you hear around you. Using Fibonacci retracement, I believe we could see a top for Bitcoin around $150-200K before the next bear market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WealthNode
SPX forming a top?US500 - 24h expiry Levels above 5630 continue to attract sellers. The 161.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 5544 from 5650 to 5585. Bespoke support is located at 5540. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward. Economic figures could adversley affect the short term technical picture. We look to Sell at 5630 (stop at 5665) Our profit targets will be 5540 and 5470 Resistance: 5630 / 5650 / 5680 Support: 5545 / 5540 / 5470 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
1
SP500 : Bearish : Similar patterns with the pastLook carefully at April 2005, October 2007 and Today. A "Sell Off" of 20% took place. History does not usually repeat itself, but in trading the phenomenon of cyclicals exists. It's just AMAZING! What do you think?! In addition, the levels indicated are achievable in the medium term, 2-3 months; In recent days, this is what happened at the macroeconomic level: 1-Jackson Hole Result: No big impact on the markets: Dow Jones or techs. 2-NVIDIA long awaited: Result: The action disappointed and went down Minus 9.86% in total after closing and yesterday minus 6.38%. Cause: Delay in the delivery of new chips, among others... Will NVIDIA always explode the ceilings, while the competition arrives: AMD, GOOGLE, etc... with more efficient chips that do not heat up. Technically the markets are OVERBOUGHT so a return to the 38.2% or 50% of Fibonacci would be perfect for sellers, but also for buyers who would like to buy at a lower price! I remind you that in trading we buy the bottoms and we sell the peaks!
SP:SPXShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
Fed’s Preferred Inflation Indicator TomorrowTomorrow’s macroeconomic calendar is set for a major event! 📊 At 8:30 AM Eastern Time, we’ll see the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The implied move for PCE is +/- 35 points, with the estimated month-over-month core PCE at 0.2%. 📈 Stay tuned for market reactions and how it could impact the broader indices! SP:SPX AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ #Finance #Investing #MarketWatch #EconomicData #Inflation #PCE #Fed #StockMarket #FinancialNews
AMEX:SPYLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-29 - Breakaway in Carryover ModeToday's pattern should play out as a reversion to yesterday's selling pressure. I did not expect to see the markets sell downward as hard as they did yesterday, but my systems were able to catch the downward trend well. As a trader and a researcher, I try to base my expectations on what I believe to be the highest probable outcome. Yet, sometimes I'm wrong. I've mentioned this before, and I'll probably say it again and again... Traders must be capable of adapting to the charts. Play what is in front of you. My SPY Cycle Patterns offer assistance in what may happen based on Fibonacci/Gann price characteristics. Yet, news items (or positioning ahead of NVDA earnings) can drive market trends in unique directions. We must understand that big news events/earnings/data can alter price trends away from the SPY Cycle Pattern triggers, and we have to be able to play the chart in front of us. So we adapt to what the chart is telling us - always. Remember, Fibonacci Price Theory was very clear yesterday after the first breakdown in price - this trend is BEARISH. Watch this video. Gold is getting ready to make a move up to 2593+ and Silver wants to follow up to about $31. But Silver will lag Gold a bit - so position yourself correctly. Bitcoin will stay range-bound over the next 5-7+ trading days - trying to run out time on the Flag Apex. Then, it should make a bigger move to the upside. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny