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S&P 500 (SPX500)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-28 - Vortex Rally Phase InitiatesGood afternoon everyone, This Sunday update highlights my SPY Cycle Patterns for next week and discusses my belief that the US stock market has entered a new Vortex Rally Phase. For those unfamiliar with my extended research, every weekend, I spend more than 10 hours creating Custom Index charts and reviewing other proprietary data points while attempting to determine an outcome related to capital flows, expectations, and global market trends. It's not like I sit here trying to study every global market. I have about 20+ Custom Index charts/data points that show me most of the data I need to see; then, I attempt to verify my expectations by looking at other data points/charts. I'm seeing the start of a Vortex Rally (as I call it). This is something very important for traders to understand and is clearly defined in this video. Get ready. We will see a solid US Stock market MELT-UP over the next 12+ months. Get some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Increased volume on the down move is telling you that this one is the real one. Over the next months, market will test down to the bull trend line from 2023-10, which is also where the weekly 20ema is. Friday we stopped around the smaller bull trend line and it’s a decent place to expect some pullback before we be on our way to 5400/5450 comment: Low of the week was 5432 and I wrote 5400/5450, +121 points. For most letters/rooms/subscriptions you have to pay good money for those outlooks, if you even get them this accurate. Hope you made some. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600 key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Lower lows and lower highs. Bulls stopped the selloff where they had to and their last bull trend line before only the one from the covid low remains. I do think the two legged correction is good for now for the bears and a bounce is due. Since both sides have reasonable arguments, I think it will come down to earnings. If the mag7 report good and their outlook stays good, we bounce higher. If they fail or some fail, we move sideways. Slightly favoring a higher bounce to form a proper channel downwards. Decent chance bulls might close both bear gaps. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Bearish but also expecting a pullback first. Same as dax. → Last Sunday we traded 5553 and now we are at 5499. Low was 5432. Bearish was right. Pullback was right. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. medium-long term: First target for this section was 5450 and that will be hit over the next days or 2 weeks. After that is 5300 over the next 3-8 weeks and 5000 could be hit again in 2024. —update: 5450 was hit mid July. Next comes 5300 over the next 2-6 weeks. current swing trade: Took profits on the swing short from 5700. Will add again above 5550. chart update: Added my preferred bear channel for the next weeks.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
US Banks & Financial Sectors are ready for another fabulous riseNasdaq Banks The bank index has been on a rollercoaster ride, witnessing numerous price fluctuations. Following the breakout of the double bottom pattern, the index surged and formed a Rising Wedge pattern. However, once the pattern broke downwards, the bank index experienced a significant decline. Upon hitting a support level around 2,650, the index established a Double Bottom pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal. Subsequent to the breakout above the neckline, the bank index began consolidating within a tight range. Most recently, another breakout has occurred, setting the stage for a potential upward rally. S&P 500 Financials After the market crash in 2020, the index fell into an oversold zone and stayed in a period of consolidation within an Ascending Triangle formation. Following this breakout, the financial index experienced a strong rally to the upside. However, it struggled to break above the 700 level and began to decline. Subsequently, the index went through a lengthy consolidation inside a Box formation. After another breakthrough, the index surged once more and created a bullish Pole & Flag pattern. With a recent breakout, the financial index is poised for another upswing.
NASDAQ:BANKLong
by NaranjCapital
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-26 Base/Support Rally PatternThe markets are struggling to break away from the morning congestion. I, personally, want to see the SPY move above $550-551 (filling the gap) before I'm going to consider any potential upward trend. The past few days have been frustrating for me and my Cycle Patterns. The Kamala-Crush, as I call it, came out of nowhere and crushed the market trend. The SPY was holding up fairly well on Monday/Tuesday this week but was crushed on Wednesday - the Day of Biden's resignation and Kamala's take-over. I see this as traders/investors actively moving capital away from risks and profits. Now that we are nearing the end of the week, the dust will settle, and we'll move back to more normal types of trading/trending. In the next few weeks, SPY Cycle Patterns show moderate upside trending. It should be fun. Remember, stay focused on your objectives and learn to develop proper risk containment for your trading. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 7-26 - Top/Resistance Counter-TrendToday's Counter-trend pattern is a Top/Resistance pattern. This pattern usually reflects a price peak setup - rolling into a downward price trend. But it is in a Counter-trend formation today - so we should expect a base/bottom setup rolling into a bullish price trend. This video covers the SPY/QQQ/Gold, and I expect the "Kamala-Shakeout" may be nearly over in terms of market disruption (at least for now). I strongly believe this is a moderate price shakeout. Traders are reacting to the new Democratic nominee (Kamala Harris) and the sudden change in expectations related to the Presidential election outcome. I could be wrong, but it makes sense to me that this sudden change would be reflected throughout the global markets as a repositioning of capital (related to risks). Let's see if the markets can hold this base/bottom setup over the past 2 days. I really want to see the SPY above $550~551 to settle above my A/B level related to risks. A move back above $550-551 would indicate price has rejected the current downward swing. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
SPx, Bearish Area in correction caseS&P 500 Analysis: Bearish Area in correction case The SPx corrected the price to their resistance of 5460 and as long as under 5460 means falling to get 5409, so still running and consolidating between 5460 and 5409. Bullish Scenario: the price should reverse and stabilize above 5460 to a bullish trend toward 5491 and 5525 **Bearish Scenario:** The price will continue their dropping to reach 5409 and then should stabilize below that to be a downtrend till 5372 and 5346 Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5460 - Resistance Levels: 5490, 5525, 5512 - Support Levels: 5409, 5372, 5346 Today's Expected Trading Range: The expected trading range is between the resistance at 5491 and the support at 5372.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P dragged down by US politicsLast week, the market was significantly affected by political uncertainty in the US. Technically, everything looked decent, and there was no change in fundamentals as inflation continued to slow down and banks reported positively. Given this, I was expecting a rotation within a narrow range, but the uncertainty was too strong, causing a sell-off in all major sectors (see Market Strength Index). The only sector that showed some resilience was Financials, but even it eventually succumbed. The week closed very weak, with a bearish engulfing candle, which formally starts a weekly consolidation. It is important to remember that the market is still in a weekly uptrend, and we should treat weekly consolidations as short-term pullbacks until the price sets a convincing lower high on the weekly chart. I would expect the price to try retesting the gap from Wednesday, the 17th. Whether this retest is successful or not will determine the future of the market. It is also likely that in the coming months, the market will be very sensitive to political developments. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 EOD Wrap-up - Kamala-CrushThis is an End Of Day wrap-up related to the continued downward price trends the US markets are experiencing. As I continue to research why the US markets are contracting so suddenly, the only thing that makes sense to me is what I call the "Kamala-Factor." Suddenly, last weekend, Kamala Harris went from the sidelines to front-n-center. Monday, everyone talked about Kamala Harris as the new Dem candidate after Biden pulled out of the race. By Tuesday night, Kamala Harris had secured enough delegates for the Dem nomination. Wednesday morning - the markets CRASHED. Today, we saw a little bounce near support, but the markets continued to sell downward into the close. As far as I'm concerned, this is actually FEAR related to Kamala's policies, plans, and leadership. Traders/investors are suddenly moving capital away from sectors they believe could be at risk of a further collapse. This is the only reasonable response to the sudden collapse of the major US indexes—gold, Silver, Oil, Transportation Index, and others—while the VIX suddenly shot up to 18+. The short story Kamala Harris scares people, particularly investors/traders and large investment firms. As a result, they are moving capital away from risk factors before the US POTUS election. We need to see the US markets find support, or we could be in for a deeper market downturn. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: A trading range after a strong move is more often than not the final flag. Yesterday we formed a late trading range and bulls had a strong move up today, which makes me believe that the sell into the close was the final flag, rather the start of another leg down. Market is at huge support with the bull trend line from October and no one expects it to break on the first try. Can we dip below before a stronger pullback? Sure. Odds still favor the bulls for a pullback, at least to the 4h again, like the bull spike today. I have drawn 2 potential paths forward but as always, wait for the market to show its direction and not guess it and most certainly do not trade before it’s happening. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped. Enjoy the ride down. key levels: 5400 - 5560 bull case: Bulls got a strong bounce to the 4h 20ema today. Tomorrow they want to defend the bull trend line from 2023-10 and keep the market above 5500, which is still max bullish if you look at higher tf. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are in control of the market and in full STR mode. The bounce today was strong but bears reversed it even harder. They are trading below all important ema and their only target for the rest of the month is to break the big bull trend line, which would put bulls in panic mode. Such important trend lines mostly have to be poked at a couple of times before market can break through. If they step aside for another pullback higher, they need to keep it below 5533 or market will test 5560/5570 again. Invalidation is above 5533. short term: Slightly bullish with a clear invalidation price of 5430. Odds slightly favor the bulls for a second leg up and go sideways around 5500. If bears manage to break below the bull trend line, next support is at 5300. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Closed my swing short from 5700 at 5450. I expect a pullback and will short it again. trade of the day: Buying the opening reversal from 5432. On the 5m chart bears just quickly gave up and market made 97 up. Very strong 3 bar reversal and difficult to take after the 40 point drop from the open. Taking the short afterwards was probably easier and better. Market turned at the 4h 20ema and only spent 1h at around 5520 before bears printed a strong 15m bear bar which was strong enough to go short as it closed. On the chart it was bar 13
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
S&P500 - The beginning of the bear market?SP:SPX potentially created a top and is starting to head lower for the next months. We have patterns, cycles and market structure and if everything is lining up nicely, there is a high chance you will be right. The S&P500 is currently retesting a major multi-year resistance trendling, is starting to shift bearish on the smaller timeframes and just rallied +50% without any noticeable correction. In a couple of months, we will trade at lower levels! Levels to watch: $5.500, $4.500 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
TVC:SPXShort
by basictradingtv
8
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 : Temp-Bottom UpdateGood afternoon everyone, Today's Temp-Bottom pattern played out perfectly after what I'm calling the Kamala-Shakeout on 7/24. The SPY price is struggling to find support near the 2x StdDev lower channel and appears to have bounced higher into a new short/intermediate-term Bullish price trend. If you've been following my research, you already know how powerful and accurate my SPY Cycle Patterns are and how they do not take into account news, politics, or other outside crisis events. They are psychologically reflective of Fibonacci/Gann price cycles/structures—nothing else. I believe the SPY will attempt to squeeze higher into the close today, setting up another bottom-reversal pattern tomorrow (a counter-trend Top Reversal). The Counter-trend type suggests the pattern will be inverted. If my analysis is correct, we'll see the SPY move into a more solid Bullish price trend by tomorrow and then continue to try to break above the $560 level again. Here we go... Get some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-25 - Deep Low Bottom (Gap Fill) This is a rather long video (about 23 minutes) - but I wanted to go over the unique situation presented to us with what I'm calling the "Kamala Shakeout" related to yesterday's deep selling trend. This video is very clear. We are still in a technical Bearish trend, and I've highlighted the levels needed to switch to a Bullish trend. Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Temp-Bottom. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to identify support and roll upward - starting a price reversion that may see the price move above $555 over the next 2~5+ days. But, right now, I'm more concerned with early morning selling pressure trying to fill the GAP Window from early June. Remember, I'm trying to suggest a pattern reaction (a Temp-Bottom pattern) while highlighting the KEY Ultimate382 levels as confirmation levels for Bullish or Bearish trending. Yesterday's big selling move was, in my opinion, related to unknowns focused on Kamala Harris' run for POTUS. I believe the markets were waiting for any catalyst related to the uncertainties of a Harris Presidency, and those concerns were reflected in the selling pressure we saw yesterday. Here we go. Get some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
1
S&P 500 approaching trendline supportFollowing the technology-led drop, the S&P 500 is now nearing potential support around 5390. This is where a bullish trend line going back to October comes into play. It will need to hold this trend line on a daily closing basis to keep the bulls lurking for fresh opportunities. But if the selling continues, then the next possible support area to watch is the highs made in April and May between 5277 to 5350. Below that area, there’s not much support seen until long-term support and the 200-day moving average near the 5,000 zone. Therefore, the bulls better step up their game near these short-term support levels to prevent a larger drop. The bulls need confirmation that the market has at least made a temporary low, given extent of the decline this week and the fact that the market is not quite at the oversold levels of 20 on the RSI indicator yet. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
SPX broke the trend line with a gap. Time to sell rallies?Since April, the SPX has risen around 15%, and since November's low, it has increased by almost 40%. This is quite significant for such an index, making us wonder if this rise is fundamentally justified (in my opinion, it is not). But, as they say, "trade what you see, not what you think". What we saw was a strong upward move. However, keeping this expression in mind, we also observed a breakdown with a gap yesterday, which was not filled during the day, indicating a "gap and run." My preferred strategy for the index is to sell on eventual rallies above 5500, with a target at 5250. This strategy would be negated by a new all-time high (ATH).
SP:SPXShort
by Mihai_Iacob
8
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - 7-24 : Review & The Kamala ShakeoutAfter a long drive and trying to get through LA, I wanted to discuss what I believe is taking place in the US/Global markets. What I call the "Kamala Shakeout". Over the past few weeks, there has been much news related to Trump/Biden and the potential election consequences. But all of those expectations changed because of two rather large events.. _ the assassination attempt on Trump _ Biden's withdrawal from the race - resulting in Kamala Harris's rise. Now, I believe the markets are starting to digest the amount and scale of uncertainty related to a new POTUS candidate (with almost no knowledge of her policies, plans, and expectations) and the outcome in November (only 90+ days away). IMO, what we are seeing right now is actual FEAR related to the unknown factors centered around Kamala Harris. I believe voters and businesses already had expectations related to Biden/Trump (either outcome) based on the past 8 years. Now, with Kamala Harris, who knows what the expectations are related to plans, policies, and expectations? That is why the markets rolled as hard as they did today. The markets are pricing a new degree of uncertainty and will continue the Kamala Shakeout until the dust settles. I'll fill you in with more details tomorrow morning. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5