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S&P 500 (SPX500)

Massive Sentiment Swing (Bears vs Bulls Royal Rumble)Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted). Unfortunately, Thursday Unemployment Claims were higher and Friday's Non-Farm was a massive whiff. This triggered concerns that the FED is now behind the curve and the economy is heading into a recession (Sahm Rule is undefeated as a predictor). Key takeaways from me this week - VIX made the 2nd largest single day spike (Friday to Monday), and 24 hrs later made the 1st largest single day retreat (Monday to Tuesday). As I explain in the video, eerily similar volatility event like we saw in 2017 into January 2018. History rhymes and 2017/2018 were very different economic times compared to today. The week ahead is a bit lighter on US earnings, but key news is PPI and CPI (Tue and Wed prints). I'll be watching the key equilibrium levels to see who gets the upper hand. Do bears attempt to push price lower and re-test the lows? Do bulls continue to rip after the outlier cleanse and we're back to all-time highs before the election or end of year? We'll find out. I'll be watching and trading and doing my best. Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
SP500 new ath before collapseSP:SPX Last time we dropped 35% on covid pandemic Now we have a correction 27% its more than enough Last impulse up till 2025 November can be in a range 5500 - 6200 Take profit and exit line on my custom indicator, all lines are dynamic Before we will see new trigger and end of 18 year property cycle Than we will see big correction to 3200-3000 "Buy line" on my custom indicator Based on my second indicator Market Mood we already 3 times passed white zone on indicator which called disbelief zone when the best time accumulate crypto, indexes, etc Last impulse will be slowly but surely and will end on euphoria before disaster conflict between USA and China, hunger, new pandemic. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. --- • Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ • For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
SP:SPX
by Crypto4light
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index displayed severe downward movement during the current week's trading session as we blasted through Key Sup 5238 and completed our long-time flagged target, Inner Index Dip 5131. The resilient rebound occurs, and the current market price action rests at Mean Res 5345. The likelihood of interim downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 5280 exists before the index resumes its upward trajectory. However, the prevailing price action suggests a sustained uptrend toward the Inner Interim Index Rally 5443, possibly extending to Mean Res 5525. However, these attained targets are likely to exert downward pressure.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin vs. SPY: A Comparative AnalysisIn the ever-evolving world of finance, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to make headlines as a disruptive force in the global economy. As of August 10, 2024, a comparative analysis between Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reveals fascinating insights into how the world's leading cryptocurrency stacks up against a traditional benchmark of the U.S. stock market. The Weekly Chart: A Long-Term Perspective The weekly chart for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from Coinbase, as seen on TradingView, provides a long-term view of Bitcoin's price movements over the past several years. From its early days of relative obscurity to its meteoric rise in recent years, Bitcoin has become a staple in the portfolios of both retail and institutional investors. The chart highlights several key price points and trends, with the most recent data showing Bitcoin trading at approximately $60,422.92. This marks a notable recovery and a 3.94% increase over the past week. This growth is particularly interesting when viewed in the context of Bitcoin's historical volatility. The chart clearly illustrates Bitcoin's cyclical nature, with periods of rapid growth followed by sharp corrections. Yet, despite the volatility, Bitcoin has shown resilience, consistently bouncing back from lows to reach new highs. Bitcoin vs. SPY To further understand Bitcoin's performance, it's crucial to compare it against a traditional benchmark like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 Index—a key barometer of the U.S. stock market. The "Asset vs Benchmark" table on the chart provides a detailed comparison of Bitcoin and SPY across multiple timeframes, including 1 day (1D), 1 week (1W), 1 month (1M), 3 months (3M), 6 months (6M), and 1 year (1Y). Here's a breakdown of the performance: 1 Day (1D): SPY shows a modest gain of +0.44%, while Bitcoin has experienced a slight decline of -0.72%. This short-term fluctuation is a reminder of Bitcoin's higher volatility compared to traditional assets. 1 Week (1W): Bitcoin shines here with a 3.94% gain, compared to SPY's marginal increase of 0.02%. This suggests that Bitcoin has been more responsive to recent market dynamics, potentially driven by macroeconomic factors or developments within the cryptocurrency space. 1 Month (1M): Over the past month, Bitcoin has underperformed with a -6.48% decline, while SPY saw a -3.24% drop. While both assets have struggled, Bitcoin's higher volatility is once again evident. 3 Months (3M): The 3-month data shows a similar pattern, with Bitcoin down -3.58%, compared to SPY's -3.24%. This alignment suggests that broader market trends have impacted both assets, though Bitcoin remains more sensitive to these movements. 6 Months (6M): Over the last six months, Bitcoin and SPY are almost neck and neck, both down -3.58%. This parity highlights the global economic challenges that have weighed on both traditional and digital assets. 1 Year (1Y): The 1-year performance paints a different picture. Bitcoin has surged ahead with a remarkable 42.88% gain, vastly outperforming SPY's 12.14% increase. This underscores Bitcoin's potential as a long-term growth asset, particularly in a year marked by inflation concerns and market volatility. The Broader Implications This analysis underscores several key points for investors: Volatility as a Double-Edged Sword: Bitcoin's higher volatility means that while it can deliver substantial short-term gains, it also carries greater risk. Investors need to be prepared for significant price swings and should consider their risk tolerance when allocating to Bitcoin. Diversification Potential: Bitcoin's ability to outperform traditional assets like SPY over the long term highlights its potential as a diversification tool. By adding Bitcoin to a portfolio, investors can potentially enhance returns while also increasing exposure to the rapidly growing digital economy. Macroeconomic Sensitivity: Bitcoin's performance is increasingly influenced by global macroeconomic factors, much like traditional assets. This alignment suggests that Bitcoin is becoming more integrated into the broader financial ecosystem, making it a more relevant consideration for mainstream investors. Conclusion As Bitcoin continues to evolve and mature as an asset class, its role in the financial markets is becoming increasingly significant. The recent data showing Bitcoin's outperformance over SPY on a 1-year basis is a testament to its growing relevance and appeal. However, investors must also be mindful of the risks associated with Bitcoin's volatility and consider a balanced approach when incorporating it into their investment strategy. In an era where digital assets are gaining traction, Bitcoin remains at the forefront, challenging traditional notions of value and investment. As the financial landscape continues to shift, keeping an eye on the dynamic between Bitcoin and traditional benchmarks like SPY will be essential for understanding the future of finance. Disclaimer: This article was generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI). While AI can provide valuable insights, it is important to verify the information and consider consulting with a financial professional before making any investment decisions. The content should not be considered financial advice. The information provided may contain errors, inconsistencies, or outdated information. It is provided as-is without any warranties or guarantees of accuracy. We disclaim any liability for damages or losses resulting from the use or reliance on this content.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Aitch-T
1
US $ YEN one more LOW 140.9 All math points to this target US dollar Yen under Elliot Wave and Fib relationship Still call for another drop to find true support . The wave structure has 4 relationships pointing to the same target all within .4 tenth of one point , I have posted this for good reason I would think that over the weekend or into next week We would see another WASHOUT in the sp 500 and QQQ . I have moved to cash outside a position long msft for june and aug 2025 calls , I have dates of 8/13 to 8/16 as A low point in markets . We are in a battle in the sp 500 and over head res is just at today high and 5400 even . the wave structure can be a series of waves 1 2 1 2 to the upside this would mean wave 4 low is in place and a target of 5888 would be the upside. put/call model says to position on the long side . However The structure can be also counted as a ABC down X A and B in progress which should be followed in a wave C decline below ALL the lows and take out 5118 this would target 2 zones. First 4996 alt is 4888 . I will stand on the side lines waiting for the YEN to reach the target. Best of trades WAVETIMER
by wavetimer
Just look for what is outperforming the S&P 500The market started to rotate in early July to more conservative sectors and AMEX:DBA is showing that agricultural commodities have been outperforming stocks. The ratio SP:SPX / AMEX:DBA made a lower high starting August and then just days later broke a key support level. Then the AMEX:DBA broke above a downward trendline. Is this the start of new trend? At least it is in the short term. The are some stocks in the food industry that are looking good like NYSE:TSN and $INGR. Even NYSE:PPT is doing all time highs after a 20-year base!
SP:SPXLong
by dpuleo19
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-9 : Inside Breakaway VolatilityToday's Inside Breakaway pattern requires price to open within the body of yesterday's candle. Therefore, we need to see price move below $530.65 before the 930 opening bell in NY. If this happens, then the Inside Breakaway pattern is ready to play out, and I believe we have a much stronger chance (about 75%) for the price to rally higher today (leaving only about a 25% chance for a broader market pullback). The Current Flag formation on the SPY (and other major symbols) may present an extended range of volatility today and on Monday. I'm suggesting today's Inside Breakaway pattern will resolve to the upside. But I'm also warning there is about a 30% chance the markets will FLUSH-OUT to the downside today before resolving back into a Bullish price trend. The reason I'm making this suggestion/warning is because of the Flag pattern that is currently playing out. The closer we move toward the Flag Apex, the more likely we will see broader price volatility and bigger price swings. It is very common for price to become extremely volatile near Flag Apexes. This happens because the price has been coiling into the Flag Apex range for many hours/days and potentially weeks. That energy, when released, usually prompts a fairly large volatility range. Today, I warn that the $524-525 should act like a make-or-break level for Bullish or Bearish trending. I cover the SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and more in today's video. Remember, I'm trying to teach you techniques you can use for the rest of your life while showing you what I see on these charts. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by BradMatheny
2
Continue To Monitor 5390 For Bulls and BearsWe are currently 1.5 trading days away from our original market top call, but this analysis will cover any new developments. Wave A appeared to have a good 5 wave structure with wave 3 having an extension. Wave B retraced 73% of wave A's movement quicker than expected. Wave C has most likely completed at least the first two waves and possibly as much as 4 waves. Wave 2 retraced around 64% of wave 1 and as wave 3 is currently marked, it extended 304% of wave 1. I have marked wave 3 based on my wave 3 indicator at the bottom. The shorter arrow pointing down depicts a wave 3 of 3 and the larger arrow depicts the end of a wave 3. The gap in the blue painted backgrounds at the bottom is the distinguishing feature of two separate wave 3s being signaled instead of just one wave 3. The retracement off of the signaled wave 3 was very quick although it was a 20% retracement and quite possibly the end of wave 4. If these four waves have concluded, wave 5 and the market could top as early as Friday. I will walkthrough the levels on the far right first to determine a possible top. The furthest right values are retracements from the original market top from mid-July. If the index moves back to the all-time high, it would have retraced 100%. A common retracement could be between 38.2%-61.8%. The next column left of this is the movement extension of C from wave A which topped at 5336.20. Basically, wave C should finish somewhere above 5336.20 which the index has now surpassed and therefore is capable of topping at any time. The next leftmost column are movement extensions from wave 3's movement inside of wave C. Once again, we are already above wave 3's top (5333.70) and capable of ending at any time. I try to find common levels among these three columns and monitor the index as it approaches. A 50% retracement of the macro wave 1 would occur at 5387.30, while an extension of wave A would of 123.6% is at 5393.31, coincides with a 138.2% extension of wave 3 at 5392.57. This very tight zone is certainly one to monitor for a top and it is not far away at the time of this analysis. I try to make similar identifications in other symbols to get a better read of the S&P500 index. Japan is moving the same, although it is unclear if they have completed wave 3 of C yet. They will most likely see more movement as their trading day gets in full swing during the overnight hours for North America. They may continue the momentum observed from America's Thursday session. Without marking their completed wave 3 with certainty, their area of commonality is between 37705-37782. JP Morgan Chase makes things more interesting because it is not clear if we are still in macro wave 1 or macro wave 2. The case for macro wave 1 has it in a micro wave 3 of C albeit in wave 4 of macro wave 1 here: If this holds true, the S&P 500 may not be in the correct place. If JPM is actually inline with the current wave structure as the index, waves 4 and 5 were very abbreviated based on the location of the wave 3 of 3 signals from early August. This alignment would slightly alter the retracement lines to the far right as seen here: The area of commonality is around 211.30 which is almost too much of a movement over the next 1-2 days for this stock. Amazon appears to fall inline with the theory of ending macro wave 2 soon. It has a target area around 170.5-171.32 and another much higher at 175.52-176.35. Based on the lack of obvious agreement, it is difficult to determine where the market is. I will continue to monitor the initial theory that the market topped in mid-July and has completed a five wave structure down and is about to finish a three wave structure up in the coming days. If the levels pointed out here are significantly surpassed, the market could continue upward to new all-time highs once again. Another downward reversal on or before Monday likely points to a new index low between 4100-4700 within the next month.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-8 : Harami Means IndecisionThis update to my morning video was created to help you understand why a Harami pattern will likely prompt fairly large price rotation today. The Harami pattern is an indecision type of pattern. It suggests price is struggling to find direction and may attempt to test upper and lower boundaries. The purpose of the Harami pattern is to flush out weaker trading positions while, essentially, completing a minor Flag formation. The Harami pattern is an Inside Bar. By structure, this Inside Bar is a Flag setup (very short-term). The end of a Flag Formation means price will attempt to move into a new trending mode - or move back into a new Flag formation. Pay attention to how price constructs this Harami/Flag pattern today. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-8 : A Volatile Harami PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Harami/Inside. Because of the recent price volatility and the current price FLAG setup, I expect today's Harami pattern to include a fairly large high/low price range. That means we may see very solid price trending (up/down) throughout the day - whereas today's open/close range should stay within yesterday's open/close range. If you've been following my research, I expect the SPY to attempt to mount a fairly strong rally over the next 10+ days (possibly longer). After the recent bout of volatility (the Kamala-Crush), I believe the US markets will attempt to move into what I'm calling a Vortex Rally based on simple fundamentals. In order for this to happen, we need to see a few things happen: - the US dollar continues to strengthen - crude oil should continue to slide downward (possibly targeting $65) - IYT (TRAN) should stay somewhat muted into the end of this year - Gold/Silver should continue to move upward - Global markets should continue to struggle If this happens, it will strengthen my Vortex Rally expectations into 2025 and beyond. Remember, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not always 100% accurate. But they can provide a very clear context for expectations, and when used with other TA techniques and proper risk management - they can be incredibly helpful. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
S&P 500 Faces Deep Retracement Amid Global TensionsThe S&P 500, after reaching an almost all-time high of $5670, has begun a notable retracement. This decline follows a "Red Monday" and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. These factors have contributed to the current downward trend, triggering a deeper correction. From a seasonal analysis perspective, this type of correction is both expected and well-documented. Historically, the S&P 500 has shown a tendency to experience retracements between July and the end of October, regardless of its preceding bullish trend. This pattern suggests that the current decline may not be an anomaly but rather part of a predictable cycle. Investor fears and potential misinterpretations of the broader economic scenario could exacerbate this retracement. The psychological impact of global conflicts and economic uncertainty often leads to heightened market volatility and increased selling pressure. Technically, we have identified key demand areas around $5000 and lower at $4900. These levels could serve as potential support zones where buyers may re-enter the market, providing a possible halt to the decline. Given the current market dynamics and seasonal patterns, we are strategically looking to open a short position, anticipating further downward movement in the S&P 500. In summary, the S&P 500 is undergoing a significant correction influenced by global geopolitical tensions and historical seasonal patterns. While this retracement aligns with expected trends, it underscores the importance of careful market analysis and strategic positioning in response to evolving economic and geopolitical factors. ✅ Please share your thoughts about S&P500 in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:SPXShort
by FOREXN1
1
#VIX fear index and what it means with all its dates#VIX 1M chart; The VIX (Volatility Index) is an indicator that measures the expected volatility of the market and is often referred to as the " fear index ". In short, low values indicate a calm market, while high values indicate a tense market with higher stress levels. By the way, this chart is mainly used by those who trade in the options market. So what's it going to do for us? Let's see. The VIX is usually inversely correlated with the S&P 500 index. In other words, it is negatively correlated. When is the VIX chart triggered? * Financial crises and economic uncertainty. * Major corporate bankruptcies or scandals. * Geopolitical tensions and war threats. * Large-scale events such as natural disasters or pandemics. * Major central bank decisions and interest rate changes. The dates and events I have indicated in the chart; * October 1998 : Russian debt crisis and the collapse of the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund. * July 2002 : Dot-com bubble burst and accounting scandals (Enron, WorldCom). * October 2008 : Global financial crisis, bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. * May 2010 : Flash Crash - a sudden and massive drop in the US stock market. * August 2011 : US credit rating downgraded. * August 2015 : China's economic slowdown and market volatility. * February 2018 : Inflation fears in the US and a sudden drop in stocks. * March 2020 : The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on global markets. * August 2024 : Bank of Japan's first rate hike in many years. Here are the details of what two of the above terms mean and why they may have an impact on the markets; What is a Flash Crash? On May 6, 2010, an extraordinary event occurred on the US stock markets that lasted only minutes, but caused severe price fluctuations and sudden drops in market values. During this event, the Dow Jones Index fell by about 1000 points in a few minutes and recovered shortly afterwards. It became clear how unprepared the markets were for such an extraordinary event. This continued the domino effect. Who is Lehman Brothers? Why would its bankruptcy have an impact on the markets? Lehman Brothers was considered one of the most prestigious investment banks on Wall Street, with a huge influence around the world. Therefore, we can say that such a bankruptcy during the 2008 real estate crisis had the effect of throwing fire on the global markets. If you have read this far, you can like and share to support us.
TVC:VIX
by ugurtash
S&P500 / Continued Volatility in the MarketsContinued Volatility in the Markets Investors should brace themselves for continued market whiplash, as Thursday's trading session indicates that volatility remains a significant concern. The S&P 500 (SPX) has stabilized within a bearish trend, targeting 4923 soon. The current volatility and technical indicators suggest bearish momentum. Bullish Scenario: For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5260, potentially reaching 5291 and 5327. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 5214, the bearish trend is expected to continue toward 5130 and 5040. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5214 - Resistance Levels: 5260, 5281, 5327 - Support Levels: 5130, 5040, 4925 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5215 and 5130. Direction: Downward
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Will the Stock Market Crash Continue? My Trading ideasOn the macro level, the Bank of Japan says it won't raise rates when the market's unstable, which helped calm the market this morning. But rising tensions in the Middle East are making investors nervous. I think in these shaky times, it's smart to spread out your investments and focus on safer bets like healthcare, consumer goods, and utilities. You might also consider using options to protect against short-term losses. Now let's check s&p 500 from technical aspect. The price is moving in an overall bearish market, but recently, it be supported by previous high volume candle area. Now the point we may need to pay attention is the yesterday's bearish engulfing pattern, since the price started to drop after this pattern of previous callback. Therefore, the price may continue to go bearish later. And traders who are interested in short trading, like me, may be a good timing to watch now.
SP:SPXShort
by xugina78