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S&P 500 (SPX500)

3.5% Decline on The Dow Jones 30 But Is This Unusual?Looking at the trend structure over the last 8 months, we can see a pattern play out. Since April, pullbacks of between 3.5% and 7% have been part and parcel of the Dow Jones’s trend structure. (highlighted in red) The current pullback of 3.5% falls within this range. Note also how our trend filter remains mostly green and grey, with speckles of red, since April, in line with the long-term bull trend. The index has now fallen to the d50sma (orange line), where we want to see it find support, bounce, break out and continue its climb to 50,000, as it has done since April. The Dow Jones is also a good example of how trend structures can change despite no change in direction. October to March saw a much faster trend, using the d20sma (blue line) as support, eventually breaking through in April and leading to a change in trend structure. The Dow Jones is currently lagging behind the Nasdaq 100, which is setting record highs above 20,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500, which has settled into a mini consolidation above the 6000 level. We ideally want to see Santa deliver in the final 2 weeks of December. However, if the indices and stocks don't show new trend continuations through the rest of 2024, we want them to hold within consolidation, which will act a bases for trends in the New Year. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment. :0) See below for more information on our trading and trend-following techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
DJ:DJILong
by Sublime_Trading
1
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the ath. comment : Both sides made money today so I expect them to do the same tomorrow. If anything I see the chances of another bull breakout higher than a break below. We have clear support at 6115 and until this is strongly broken, look for longs near it. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6115 - 6200 (contract change, so prices are much higher compared to Monday) bull case: Bulls are still buying the dips and making money. They prevent any stronger selling and that is why most will expect a break above the 1h 20ema tomorrow and the bear trend line. 6150 is their target for tomorrow. Depending on what Jpow delivers, we could melt up again but it’s a gamble I am not willing to take tomorrow. Many bulls also bought this because it’s close to the daily 20ema. We have closed once below it in the past 6 weeks. Invalidation is below 6100. bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. They make money scalping but that’s about it. How likely is acceleration downwards? Very unlikely. Most bullish weeks of the year and markets are at peak euphoria. Invalidation is above 6200. short term: Neutral. FOMC tomorrow and if anything I expect bulls to trade back up to 6180 going into it. 6115 - 6140 is neutral. Bearish only below 6100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling since Globex or buying previous support 6115. Bears kept it below the 1h 20ema which had 3 great short opportunities today but bulls also had decent bounces off 6115.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Is the financial system entering a new era?This chart is one of the clearest and most striking indicators of the S&P 500 and Monetary Expansion around the world on a monthly basis. Is history repeating itself or is the financial system entering a new era ? Markets are rising again after the Mortgage Real Estate Crisis in 2008 and the Covid-19 Pandemic in 2020. But what is behind this rise? Could the fact that the S&P 500 has held its value while the money supply has skyrocketed be a harbinger of a new growth cycle? What is remarkable; 
In the 2008 Real Estate Crisis, this ratio, which had been steadily moving above the trend line, was pulled down sharply and trapped below the trend line. For many years, there was an invisible pressure to maintain the trend below this line. Whenever the trend line started to be tested again, this rate was pushed down again by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 . January 2024 is a historic turning point; 
It managed to rise above the trend line after exactly 16 years and entered a steady uptrend. This development sends strong signals that a brand new economic order has been established in the world. So what happens now? 
After testing a new ATH level , what crisis or crises await us in the markets? Or is the financial system heading for a completely different course from the historical scenario this time?
SP:SPX
by ugurtash
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-17: Momentum Rally PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will rally higher - possibly attempting to find a top. What I find interesting is the big rally in the QQQ/Nasdaq yesterday. Possibly, the Momentum Rally phase hit the NQ yesterday. Overall, I'm still looking for the markets to attempt to roll into a topping pattern. So, I'm staying very cautious of any big market moves right now. Yes, if you look at the QQQ/NQ, it looks like the markets are in liftoff mode (bullish), but other data suggests the markets are actually weakening and pulling into a reversion phase. Gold and Silver will likely find a base/bottom soon. I picked up some Call options on SILJ and GDX recently anticipating the potential rally move. Bitcoin is well beyond a 100% measured move higher. Even though I believe Bitcoin can rally to 112k - 115k, I'm urging traders to stay cautious (still). My data suggests the markets are weakening and possibly moving into a pullback/reversion phase. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
S&P 500 Rally: Why a 5k Target Might Be More Likely Than 7kSince November of last year, the SP:SPX has surged by 50%, and if we look at the gains from this year alone, we're seeing around a 30% increase. Additionally, the rise from August is 20% which is significant in just five months. Considering the rapid pace of these increases, especially for such a major index, it gives me the impression that the S&P 500 may be overstretched. Statistically, such strong rallies either follow a deep bear market or precede a significant pullback. Since we haven't experienced a strong bear market recently, I believe a correction could be on the horizon. Technically, the market remains in an uptrend, but the price action from August has been in steps. This type of movement often signals distribution and a potential reversal. In conclusion, while a new all-time high by the end of the year is almost certain, I'm not overly optimistic about the long-term outlook. A pullback to around 5,000 seems more likely to me than a rally to 7,000.
SP:SPXShort
by Mihai_Iacob
Why on Earth anyone invests in the Australian Shares? (SPX)The last 16 years. The US S&P 500 index (in red) Vs the Australian All Ordinaries index. The US broad market index up by 607%, the Australian index up by 58%. The US S&P 500 index is a broad measure of the top 500 companies in the US, and the All Ordinaries likewise from the largest 500 companies listed in Australia. The US represents about 25% of Global GDP Vs Australia at 1.6%. The US S&P500 index companies also earn about 40% of their earnings from outside America (due to their Global reach). Their companies also lead in tech, banking, defense etc. Why does anyone invest solely in the Australian share markets? The Australian index is very narrowly weighted to the big 4 banks (mostly leveraged on Australian residential real estate), and the large miners (leveraged on the commodity cycle). Both very narrow, non-diversified risky strategies, and clearly over the long term a crap investment compared to the breath of risk and performance outcomes of the US multinational giants of expansion and leading edge innovation.
INDEX:AORDLong
by platinum_growth
2
SPX500 forming a Double Top pattern, will it keep going up?Technical Analysis: ================ SPX500 has formed a noticeable double top technical pattern. If it respects the double top pattern the price should touch around 5700. But if it keeps climbing the 6000 may become another support level. Fundamental Analysis: =================== 1) Israel war seems to be calming, which should reduce the uncertainty and boost the stock market 2) Russia Ukraine war is intensifying as a result of latest attacks. This war has potential to undermine all other good news and could go with the double top (technical analysis) 3) Santa Claus Rally can boost the stock market in coming weeks followed by correction in Jan 2025 ===== Happy Thanks Giving to all the traders ====
OANDA:SPX500USD
by spranav
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-16: Inside BreakawayThis video highlights what I believe will be a rotating topping pattern setting up in the SPY/QQQ over the next 3-4+ days. Traders should move away from risk headed into Christmas and the end of 2024. Gold and Silver will likely make a move higher over the next 5+ days - attempting to recover lost ground from last week's selling. Bitcoin rallied to key resistance and will likely move into a consolidated range (again). This is the time to pull capital away from risks and sit tight through the Inauguration. I believe we'll be seeing lots of day trading opportunities with volatility - but I also believe the markets are setup for a downward price swing headed into the Inauguration. Buckle up. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
S&P is Shaping a Bull Flag While Awaiting the FED DecisionLast week was characterized by increasing selling pressure that hindered upward price progression but failed to trigger any substantial pullback. The market has not even retested the previous consolidation zone ( 598-601 ), which highlights the weakness of the sellers. Looking at the daily chart, the recent price action resembles a bull flag, favoring a continuation of the upward trend. For sellers to demonstrate their strength, they must not only break this pattern to the downside but also breach the 598 support level and drive the price further down to 594 . Much will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, alongside the release of key economic data. The most favorable outcome for the bulls would be a 0.25% rate cut. Any other scenario could spark concerns—either about an impending recession (if the cut is larger) or about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment (if the cut is absent). The market outlook remains bullish; however, the current price level is not ideal for new long positions. Buyers would be better served by waiting for a more meaningful pullback (e.g., to the 600 level), provided it is not driven by a negative shift in economic sentiment.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
SPX500 H4 |Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 6,033.76 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,950.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 6,121.24 which is a level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
Bullish momentum to extend?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 6,006.92 1st Support: 5,866.31 1st Resistance: 6,157.58 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Same as for dax. Shallow two-legged pullback to the moving average is a perfect buy signal once we trade above 6087 again. I have targets at 6300 or higher and the chart is as clear as it gets. Only a daily close below 6000 would change the outlook. Quote from last week: comment: Chart is clear, do not look for shorts until we see bigger selling pressure. Current structure has a lot of room to the upside, if you like it or not. My tl;dr covered most of it. comment: Nothing has changed from last week. Market went nowhere and it has formed a perfect very shallow two-legged pullback to the ema. Above 6080 it’s a clear buy signal and I can see this going for 6300 into year end. No bearish thoughts, since bulls are in full control and best bears could do last week was a 70 point pullback. That is as weak as it gets. current market cycle: Bull trend - very late key levels: 6000 - 6300 bull case: Chart is still the same and structure did not change. Once we break above, long it for 6150+. Nothing more to say about this. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Dax outlook covers also sp500 and nasdaq. Bears are not doing anything and until they come around big time, only look for longs. Bears need a daily close below 6000 for me to reevaluate. Invalidation is above 6120. outlook last week: short term: I won’t put out a bullish outlook after such a climactic rally without any decent pullbacks. You can only go wrong here. Neutral until bears come around and if the rally continues, it will be without me. If bears come around, first target is obviously 6000 and there I expect another bounce before market decides if it wants to go below 6000 or not. → Last Sunday we traded 6099 and now we are at 6055. Good outlook. short term: Neutral until we break above 6080 and then 6120. Above 6120, market has to find a top and that could be all the way up to 6300. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed the potential bearish two-legged correction. Only bullish targets remain for now.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session this week, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a consistent steady to a lower trajectory, progressing towards our newly established support target of 6034. There remains the potential for a further decline to the subsequent Outer Index Dip level at 5980. Conversely, a notable upside movement via the previously retested Key Res 6090 level is anticipated, which may facilitate a rally to the Outer Index Rally target of 6123; this development will likely pave the way for the next phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
S&P Head and Shoulders by January - Knees and Toes by February?The S&P 500 has recently formed a solid left shoulder and is now halfway through developing the head of a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and divergence suggest we could form the right ear this week. This classic chart formation is often a sign of an upcoming trend reversal, typically from bullish to bearish. If the current pattern continues to unfold, the index could complete the right shoulder by January, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The key to confirming this reversal will be a break below the neckline, which is the support level formed between the left shoulder and head (aka the pearl necklace). Traders will be watching closely for any signs of weakness in the market as the price approaches this critical level. While the pattern isn't set in stone, the possibility of a bearish trend emerging by early next year is something investors should keep an eye on. If the pattern completes, the S&P could experience a significant pullback, so keep your eyes peeled because it could get bananas. A move above the current zone could cancel out this pattern from forming. Chance of forming: <50%
SP:SPX
by StonkMarketParty
SPDR Sectors Rolling Down as Anomaly Event Sets UpSPDR sectors appear to be forming a Head-n-shoulders pattern after the US elections. It appears the markets are stalling into a congestion phase - possibly leading to my Anomaly breakdown event. This video will help you understand how the financial and real estate sectors could collapse to deflate the current market trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:XLFShort
by BradMatheny