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S&P 500 (SPX500)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-5 : Top-Resistance PatternToday's Top Resistance pattern should reflect a moderate price rally, leading to a peak in price, then followed by a roll-over in price before the close of trading today. Follow my research. Remember we are using my SPY cycle patterns to help guide our future and current trades related to price action. These patterns are not 100% accurate all the time - but I find them very helpful in understanding how to prepare/trade related to potential future price swings. Again, outside news events, central banks/governments, wars and other massive events can disrupt these patterns for 3 to 10+ days. But, price always seems to return to the patterns over time. These disruptions are temporary. Get ready for next week's big rally phase. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally. Invalidation is above 5666. short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax. trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
SPX Analysis for Today: What’s Next After Yesterday’s Big Drop?Wow! Yesterday was brutal for us all on SPX with a major bearish move that probably left a lot of traders scratching their heads. So, what’s the game plan for today? Let’s break it down. 1. Technical Picture After the Drop Yesterday’s sell-off took SPX to key levels, and now we’re sitting in some interesting territory. The 5550-5570 range is what we’re watching closely—this could act as support, but if it cracks, we might be heading lower, potentially toward 5500. On the flip side, if buyers step in, we could see a bounce back toward 5550, which was previous support but might now act as resistance. Traders should keep an eye on whether we break out of that range or get rejected. 2. The News That Matters A lot of today’s action depends on what’s going on in the broader world. Are we getting any new data on inflation or jobs? If inflation numbers come in hot, the market could get nervous again, anticipating more rate hikes from the Fed. But if the data is lighter, we might get a relief rally after yesterday’s beatdown. Also, keep an eye on any big headlines—geopolitical tension, tech earnings, or even Fed commentary. All of these could be wildcards that drive sentiment today. 3. Sentiment Check We’ve got VIX (the fear gauge) pretty elevated right now, so people are still pretty nervous. Watch for whether that calms down today—if it does, we might get some relief in SPX. But if VIX stays high or climbs further, brace yourselves for more volatility. The Bottom Line: If today’s news stokes more fear, we could see another push lower. But if the market takes a breather, we might get a short-term bounce. Either way, buckle up—it’s going to be another interesting session!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-4 : CRUSH Blends Into Rev-RallyYesterday's price move was clearly a CRUSH pattern I expected on Monday. Because of the holiday trading schedule this week, I believe the CRUSH pattern blended into Tuesday's trading - resulting in today's pattern being a blend of the Rev-Rally pattern on Tuesday and the Up-Down-Up pattern for Wednesday. Overall, I believe the CRUSH pattern removed a lot of downward price pressure and set the markets up for a bigger upward move starting on September 9-11. At this point, I believe the US markets will attempt to find a base/support and transition into the end of this week by "looking for support—then rallying away from support." So, I expect the US markets to find a critical support level today or tomorrow, then begin to form a base and rally away from that support level. Let's play what is in front of us on the charts and Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Important Bearish Signal US500 was consolidating for quite a long period of time around the level of a current all-time high and formed a range. After the release of the yesterday's US fundamentals, the Index dropped and formed a high momentum bearish candle. A daily candle closed below a support of the range, confirming its violation. We can expect a bearish continuation lower now. Next support - 5432 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FX:SPX500Short
by VasilyTrader
3
Market 101:From the Drama King VIX to the Steady Eddie UtilitiesVolatility Index (VIX) - The Drama King Let’s kick things off with the Volatility Index, aka the market’s drama king. It’s like that one friend who always makes a big deal out of nothing—spiking dramatically whenever the market so much as sneezes. Recently, it shot up faster than a caffeine-fueled trader on Monday morning, but now it’s calming down a bit, hovering around 20.73. Keep an eye on this guy—he’s always a sign of market anxiety like I said, the the fear gauge. If he starts climbing again, it might be time to batten down the hatches. Utilities Sector (XLU) - The Steady Eddie Moving on to the Utilities sector, which is the market’s equivalent of your reliable, always-on-time friend. XLU has been climbing steadily, but just like every other reliable person, it needs a break sometimes. It’s currently chilling around 76.20, looking like it’s taking a well-deserved breather. Nothing too exciting here, but that’s exactly what you want from Utilities—slow and steady wins the race. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) - The Wild Child Now, let’s talk about ARKK—Cathie Wood’s wild child. This chart is like a rollercoaster at an amusement park: up, down, up, down, and sometimes you’re not sure if you should scream or cheer. After some wild moves, ARKK is sitting around 42.98, but don’t be surprised if it decides to take another loop-de-loop soon. Just remember to strap in and hold on tight. Technology Sector (XLK) - The Overachiever Next up, the Technology sector, which has been the market’s overachiever for quite some time. XLK had been climbing like it’s trying to win the market’s gold star, but recently it’s hit a bit of a speed bump, pulling back to 210.28. No worries though—this sector is like that student who’s always doing extra credit. It’ll likely bounce back in no time, probably while giving the rest of the market a lesson in resilience. Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) - The Big Spender Finally, we’ve got the Consumer Discretionary sector, which is the market’s big spender. XLY has been on a shopping spree, but it looks like it might be hitting the credit limit soon. The chart shows some clear support around 184.61, but if it breaks below this, we might see some belt-tightening ahead. Keep an eye on it—everyone loves a spender until the bill comes due. Summary: From the dramatic spikes of the VIX to the steady climb of Utilities, each of these charts has its own personality. Whether you’re dealing with the rollercoaster that is ARKK or the disciplined overachiever in Technology, there’s always something to learn from the market’s diverse cast of characters. Stay sharp, keep your sense of humour and energy, and remember: in the markets, as in life, it’s all about balance.
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Huge bear surprise today. The strength of the selling was absolutely unexpected. Bulls closed August at the very high and had all the arguments to print new ath but as of now, this selling is different and new highs are now very unlikely. Most daily charts printed a huge outside down bar, closing at the lows and below the daily ema. If bears get follow through tomorrow, they have taken control of the market and we might take the elevator down again. sp500 e-mini futures Here is the quote from my weekly update: bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us. comment : Market went only down today and did not touch the 15m ema, so it only makes sense to talk about the daily chart. Bears did exactly what they needed to do in order to make more bulls take profits. Now comes the most important part. If they let the bulls have a bigger pullback, this might go above 5650 again but if it stays below 5600 and we print 5490, that would certainly hit the last stops and could accelerate this down hard. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls are running for the exits. They want to secure the profits from the insane reversal over the last weeks. I expect many more stops around 5490 and bulls need to prevent the market from getting there. Bulls have the slight hope this was an early sell climax with a bear trap below the daily ema and the expanding triangle. If they can get above 5600 again, their case is valid and we could get back above 5640 again. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears have all arguments on their side, if they keep the pullback shallow and print below 5500 tomorrow. Seasonality is on their side this month and since the market is in a very volatile state, it’s possible to see 5000 this month. The first bigger target for the bears is obviously every round number, so 5500 but I do think 5400-5420 is the real target because that is the 50% pb from the recent bull rally. I will look to see if the 1h ema will hold tomorrow. Max bearishness would be to go sideways between 5500-5560 until bears want the bigger second leg down. Invalidation is above 5660. short term: Bearish but I expect a pullback before another leg down. Need to see how strong bulls are tomorrow. First bigger target for the bears is 5400. medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold. Sounds a lot easier than it is but those are the hard facts. If you struggle to do that, you need to come up with strategies to force yourself to swing part of your position and not close until a clear signal appears. Today had no signal to exit shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-3 : Reversal Rally Today.Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Reversal Rally. After yesterday's CRUSH pattern (on the Labor Day holiday), we should expect the indexes to persist in a moderate rally phase (or melt-up) today. I believe yesterday's CRUSH pattern played out very nicely on the ES. Today's Reversal Rally pattern should result in the ES attempt to move back to 5653-5660. For the SPY, that will be a move back to 563.00 to 563.40. Overall, I believe today will show a solid attempt to move higher (melting upward) as the price slides into the end of this week very sideways/flat. Starting on Sept 9-10, we should start to move into a rally phase for the SPY/QQQ. Sit tight until then. These intra-day swings are perfect for day trading Gunslingers. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BradMatheny
Tech Booms Versus Emerging MarketsWhen capitalism nearly died in 2008, major stock market indices experienced >50% drawdowns from all-time highs. After unprecedented interventions by the Federal Reserve — and a historic surge in government debt to GDP — tech, growth, and the S&P 500 have seen stellar returns. (QQQ, VUG, & SPY respectively above). On the other hand — small caps (VB), value (VTV), real estate (VNQ), developed markets (VEA), and emerging markets (IEMG) — have significantly underperformed. Tech companies have become more valuable than most countries’ GDP. Recently, the total market cap for top tech companies has surpassed $14T. Will the tech boom continue upwards or is it time for small caps plus value to mean revert to a fair historical share of the total market? Tech also leads dominance for the U.S. versus other developed and emerging markets. More recently, the divergence is especially striking in percent returns and drawdown visualizations since 2020.
AMEX:SPY
by MikeCoMacro
Stock feedback loopStock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader. Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior . Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by citsvar
S&P recovers; bulls maintain long-term controlThe last week of August was sluggish, despite several exciting events. First, NVDA’s earnings, although very strong, failed to boost the market beyond its daily trading range. The GDP and inflation data (positive) released later also didn’t provide sufficient momentum, and the market continued to bracket. The week closed at the high, but buyers didn’t manage to break out of the trading range and confirm control of the daily timeframe. We can conclude that the market has reached a temporary balance—both bulls and bears seem content with the current price and lack the conviction to initiate strong moves. Zooming out to the monthly view, August closed green, near the historical high. The long lower wick signifies a bullish rally that brought the price up from the low, indicating the strength and conviction of the bulls. Although the bulls didn’t manage to achieve a new high, they still maintain long-term control. Overall, the market is still in a monthly and weekly uptrend. Even if sellers manage to set a weekly lower high in September, it is unlikely to mark the start of a trend reversal. Buyers have created enough space for potential weekly consolidation that will not threaten their long-term control. Important levels: Last major weekly trend high (565). If buyers manage to move above and hold they will confirm continuation of monthly uptrend. Last major weekly trend low (510). Buyers must protect this level if they want to keep long term control Short Term Trading range (555-564). Breaking out from the range in either direction will mark gaining of a short-term control.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Major Sectors that may influence US Markets this week!Health Care Following an extended consolidation phase from December 2021 to August 2024, the healthcare index has developed an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. With a recent breakout, the index is now set to experience significant upward momentum. Industrials Similar to the healthcare index, the industrials sector has also established an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. Following its breakout, this index has shown positive movement. With a recent breakout from a brief consolidation phase, the index is ready to climb once more. Financials The financial sector plays a vital role in the US stock market. Recently, the financial index experienced a robust breakout after a lengthy consolidation phase, indicating that this sector could enhance the overall US market. Real Estate The real estate sector has faced challenges for a considerable time, with the index suffering a significant downturn. However, following a recent breakthrough, the index is making progress toward recovery.
SP:SPFLong
by NaranjCapital
1
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Current bullish leg looks more like a leg in a trading range than something of a new bull trend that breaks above the previous ath. It’s 50/50 if bulls can print a new ath or this stays a lower high. It’s too high to buy for anything but intraday and too early to short unless you short small and have a stop above 5800. It’s a bullish structure but you would be buying very high in a potential trading range. Bad R:R. Quote from last week: comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls need to break above 5670 if they want a new ath and it look’s very good after Friday. If they fail on Monday, I have my doubts that they can get it. Bulls are still clearly in control of the market or we would have been trading below the daily ema already. Will be interesting to see how many bears come around above 5700 and bulls taking profit, if we get there. Invalidation is below 5550. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5652 and now we are at 5661. 9 points off. I do think that was a perfect outlook. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction is pure speculation. Don’t bet on it. I do think the climactic bull rally is over and market is going sideways before the next bigger breakout. Only above 5750 can bulls dream about a breakout above the big bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds