S&P 500: Consolidation and Bearish Momentum Below Key LevelsS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price dropped on Friday and stabilized within bearish momentum. In general, as long as it trades below 6,022, the bearish trend is likely to continue toward 5,936, with the potential to reach 5,863 if the downward momentum persists.
The S&P 500 is currently consolidating between 5,993 and 5,936 until a breakout occurs.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5993
Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6099
Support Levels: 5936, 5919, 5863
Trend Outlook:
Consolidation between 5993 and 5936
Bearish Trend while below 6022
S&P 500 (SPX500)
S&P 500 Index key levels to Watch this weekIf you're trying to figure out the stock market's next moves, watch the S&P 500 Index. Last Friday marked a crucial point, with the index dipping to 5,930. This is the line you don't want to cross. Slipping below means we're below the 50-day moving average again and likely heading further south. Falling past this 5,930 mark breaks the trendline for the second time, and you'll probably see more pressure to dip below the post-FOMC low — that's your second critical level.
Things might get dicey from there, but if the selling picks up speed, I'd start eyeing the 200-day moving average as a target for early January 2025. Here's the bottom line: don't hurry to jump in at the start of January. We need some clarity on where the market's headed first.
#Nifty50 Outlook for upcoming week 30-3rd Jan 2025The Nifty roared this week, gaining a solid 226 points, closing at a strong 23813! It reached a peak of 23938 before dipping to 23647. As predicted, the Nifty stayed within the 24100-23000 range, forming an interesting inside candle pattern. Excitingly, a bullish "W" pattern has emerged on the weekly chart!
If the Nifty can hold above the crucial 23900 level next week, we could see it trading between 24300 and 23400 . However, while a bounce is expected, the bearish Monthly chart might tempt big players to unload their positions. Stay alert!
Across the pond, the S&P500 took a 2.5% hit, closing at 5970 after reaching a high of 6049. The 5870-5850 support zone is critical. A breach could trigger a faster selloff, potentially testing the 5637/5551 support levels. For an upward move, the S&P500 needs to conquer 6050, paving the way for resistance levels at 6094/6142/6225.
Bottom line: Use any bounce next week as an opportunity to lock in profits. Stay informed and trade wisely!"
Wishing everyone a very happy & prosperous New Year.
Good InvestmentThe International Information Technology Unit (IITU) is a global investment fund that focuses on companies in the technology sector. Historically, it has shown impressive returns, with an annual growth rate of around 30-50%. This strong performance is driven by the rapid advancements in technology and the increasing reliance on digital services worldwide. While past performance can indicate potential, investing in the IITU should still be approached with caution. The high returns may reflect the volatility and risk associated with the tech sector. As such, it could be a good investment for those willing to accept some risk in exchange for the possibility of significant growth, but it may not be suitable for conservative investors.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this short trading week, the S&P 500 made significant gains and is approaching our main target, Key Resistance at 6090. This movement is expected to support the next phase of the interim rebound, with the goal of breaking through the Key Resistance level at 6090 and continuing the bullish trend. However, it's important to acknowledge that a retest of the Mean Support at 5870 is still a likely scenario.
es1! retests 5kes1! appears poised for a larger move down, based on the smaller timeframe count .
this leads me to believe that es1! has entered a larger fourth wave. historically, these waves take an average of 2 months to play out and typically result in a 12% decrease from the high before completing.
wave 4's often retrace back into the territory of the prior degree's wave 4, and i expect this one to follow suit.
pay attention to the green trendline i've drawn on the chart,,, it serves as a solid guide for where i anticipate es1! to find a bottom. dipping below the trendline is acceptable, provided we don't see any weekly candle closes beneath it. even if a weekly candle does close below, a strong recovery the following week, such as a gap-up scenario , could invalidate the breakdown.
there’s not much else to add here, as the chart is fairly straightforward. keep an eye on the trendline and monitor weekly closes for confirmation.
💸
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-27-24: Momentum Rally PatternThe last Friday of the year (2024) should show up as a moderate Momentum Rally in the SPY/QQQ - possibly seeing the SPY target 603 or higher by the end of the day.
Gold and Silver are consolidating into a FLAGGING formation.
Bitcoin is trapped in a consolidation range (right shoulder) pattern that should break downward over the next 5+ days.
This is the time to position your trades for the beginning of 2025 and prepare for moderate volatility as the markets struggle for direction.
The Momentum Rally pattern, today, should present a very clean opportunity for skilled day traders.
I believe a deeper low is likely to setup between January 15 and January 25, 2025. So, be prepared for another roll to the downside after we get past the New Year.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
APPLE 270 - 300 - 320 TP BY 2025 Apple's potential to reach a stock price of $320 by 2025 is significantly bolstered by its strategic shift towards artificial intelligence (AI). Here are key reasons why this could happen:
AI-Driven iPhone Upgrades: Apple is poised to enter what analysts describe as a "multi-year AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle." This cycle is expected to drive significant hardware sales as consumers upgrade to newer models equipped with advanced AI capabilities. The introduction of Apple Intelligence, a suite of AI features, is anticipated to make the iPhone more compelling, encouraging upgrades even from users with relatively new devices.📷📷📷
Expansion in Services Revenue: With AI, Apple aims not just at hardware but also at enhancing its services ecosystem. Features like Apple Intelligence are expected to spawn new AI-driven apps and services, creating new revenue streams. This could lead to a multi-billion-dollar increase in services revenue, which traditionally accounts for a substantial portion of Apple's income.📷
Market Sentiment and Analyst Predictions: Recent analyst upgrades reflect a strong bullish sentiment on Apple's stock due to its AI strategy. For instance, Wedbush has raised the price target to $325, suggesting Wall Street might be underestimating Apple's growth potential in the
AI space. This optimism could drive investor confidence and stock value upwards.📷📷📷
Innovation and Market Positioning: Apple's focus on on-device AI, privacy, and security differentiates it from competitors. By integrating AI into its core products like Siri, Photos, and even the new iPhone SE expected in 2025, Apple can maintain or even increase its market share in both developed and emerging markets. This is particularly relevant as AI becomes more integral to everyday device usage.📷📷
Regulatory Adaptation: Despite facing regulatory challenges, Apple's ability to adapt and navigate these issues while continuing to innovate in AI could further solidify its market position. Compliance with new laws while maintaining innovation could be seen as a testament to Apple's strategic foresight, potentially boosting investor confidence.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 12-26-24 : Inside Breakaway PatternThis, being the day After Christmas, could be a very volatile trading day. I suggest traders sit back and let the morning volatility settle before attempting to make any big trades.
I believe the markets will seek direction after Christmas and look to attempt to move into a Reversion phase (likely trending upward into the end of 2024).
Overall, I believe the Anomaly event has completed - yet there is still risk for the markets to move lower before the end of Feb 2025.
Follow my research and pay attention to how large the recent Daily price bars are compared to previous ranges. The current market volatility is MASSIVE.
There is no reason skilled traders are not able to profit from some of these big price swings.
Gold and Silver enter a CRUSH pattern. This could be a huge price move for Gold & Silver today.
Bitcoin is sliding into the Consolidation Phase of an EPP pattern. This could result in another breakdown towards $72k if the EPP pattern plays out.
Buckle up.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
The Magnificent Seven Stocks: A Stellar 2024 and Uncertain 2025The Magnificent Seven Stocks: A Stellar 2024 and an Uncertain 2025
The Magnificent Seven is a term used to describe the seven largest technology companies that dominate the global economy through their scale, innovation, and high market capitalisation.
These companies are often key drivers of the US stock market, and in 2024 (as in 2023), they confirmed their leadership, with most outperforming the broader market indices. Below are approximate performance estimates for the end of 2024:
→ S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): +26%
→ Apple (AAPL): +38%
→ Microsoft (MSFT): +18%
→ Amazon (AMZN): +52%
→ Alphabet (GOOGL): +42%
→ Meta Platforms (META): +43%
→ Tesla (TSLA): +87%
→ Nvidia (NVDA): +189%
What does 2025 hold for the Magnificent Seven?
Motley Fool offers a cautious outlook for the coming year, suggesting that some of these leaders may run out of steam due to inflated stock prices relative to their intrinsic value and profit forecasts.
Zacks analysts have examined the fundamentals and identified three stocks from the Magnificent 7 that are worth considering for value investors:
1. Alphabet (GOOGL)
Alphabet has the lowest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio among the Magnificent 7, standing at 23.9. While this doesn’t say it is a value stock (value stocks typically have a P/E below 15), it is relatively cheap compared to its peers. Moreover, Alphabet now pays dividends.
2. Meta Platforms (META)
Meta Platforms remains attractively valued with a forward P/E of just 25.8. It also boasts a relatively low price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.3 (a PEG below 1.0 indicates a reasonable price relative to expected profit growth). The 1.3 PEG is appealing, and like Alphabet, Meta has started paying dividends.
3. Amazon.com (AMZN)
Once aiming to be the "store for everything," Amazon has expanded far beyond this with its AWS division, Whole Foods, sports and entertainment programming on Prime, and even chip manufacturing. Amazon has the lowest price-to-sales (P/S) ratio among the Magnificent Seven, at 3.8. Although a P/S below 1.0 is typically considered attractive, Amazon remains appealing to investors. For comparison, Microsoft’s P/S ratio is 13.1, while Nvidia’s is 29.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Eyeing a Year-End HighS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 maintains bullish momentum as long as it trades above 6022. The next bullish target is 6099, indicating consolidation between 6022 and 6099 until a breakout occurs.
A breakout above 6099 could result in a new record high before the end of the year.
For a bearish trend toward 5971, a 4-hour candle must close below 6022.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6022
Resistance Levels: 6053, 6099, 6142
Support Levels: 5971, 5936, 5919
Trend Outlook:
Consolidation between 6022 and 6099
Bullish trend as long as the price remains above 6022
SPX will go to 62201. On the daily chart, SPX is trading within an upward channel, with the MACD lines positioned above the zero line.
2. SPX has risen for three consecutive days, breaking through the key 6000 level. The next resistance is expected near 6100. If a pullback stabilizes around 5982, it could push toward a new high of 6220 (the 6220 level corresponds to a Fibonacci retracement).
3. Once SPX makes a new high above 6220, it could signal a potential pullback, with support expected around 5700.
Decoding the BTC-ES Correlation During FOMC Meetings1. Introduction
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are pivotal events that significantly impact global financial markets. Traders across asset classes closely monitor these meetings for insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, interest rates, and economic outlook.
In this article, we delve into the correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) during FOMC meetings. Focusing on the window from one day prior to one day after each meeting, our findings reveal that BTC and ES exhibit a positive correlation 63% of the time. This relationship offers valuable insights for traders navigating these volatile periods.
2. The Significance of Correlations in Market Analysis
Correlation is a vital tool in market analysis, representing the relationship between two assets. A positive correlation indicates that two assets move in the same direction, while a negative correlation implies they move in opposite directions.
BTC and ES are particularly intriguing to study due to their distinct market segments—cryptocurrency and traditional equities. Observing how these two assets interact during FOMC meetings provides a window into macroeconomic forces that affect both markets.
The key finding: BTC and ES are positively correlated 63% of the time around FOMC meetings. This suggests that, despite their differences, both markets often react similarly to macroeconomic developments during these critical periods.
3. Methodology and Data Overview
To analyze the BTC-ES correlation, we focused on a specific timeframe: one day before to one day after each FOMC meeting. Daily closing prices for both assets were used to calculate correlations, providing a clear view of their relationship during these events.
The analysis includes data from multiple FOMC meetings spanning several years. The accompanying charts—such as the correlation heatmap, table of BTC-ES correlations, and line chart—help visualize these findings, highlighting the periods of positive and negative correlation.
Contract Specifications:
o E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES):
Contract Size: $50 x S&P 500 Index.
Minimum Tick: 0.25 points, equivalent to $12.50.
Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $15,500 (subject to change).
o Bitcoin Futures (BTC):
Contract Size: 5 Bitcoin.
Minimum Tick: $5 per Bitcoin, equivalent to $25 per tick.
Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $112,000 (subject to change).
These specifications highlight the differences in notional value and margin requirements, underscoring the distinct characteristics of each contract.
4. Findings: BTC and ES Correlations During FOMC Meetings
The analysis reveals several noteworthy trends:
Positive Correlations (63% of the time): During these periods, BTC and ES tend to move in the same direction, reflecting shared sensitivity to macroeconomic themes such as interest rate adjustments or economic projections.
Negative Correlations: These occur sporadically, suggesting that, in certain scenarios, BTC and ES respond differently to FOMC announcements.
5. Interpretation: Why Do BTC and ES Correlate?
The observed correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings can be attributed to several factors:
Macro Sensitivity: Both BTC and ES are heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate decisions, inflation expectations, and liquidity changes. The FOMC meetings, being central to these narratives, often create synchronized market reactions.
Institutional Adoption: The increasing participation of institutional investors in Bitcoin trading aligns its performance more closely with traditional risk assets like equities. This is evident during FOMC events, where institutional sentiment towards risk assets tends to align.
Market Liquidity: FOMC meetings often drive liquidity shifts across asset classes. This can lead to aligned movement in BTC and ES as traders adjust their portfolios in response to policy announcements.
This correlation provides traders with actionable insights into how these assets might react during future FOMC windows.
6. Forward-Looking Implications
Understanding the historical correlation between BTC and ES during FOMC meetings offers a strategic edge for traders:
Hedging Opportunities: Traders can use the BTC-ES relationship to construct hedging strategies, such as using one asset to offset potential adverse moves in the other.
Volatility Exploitation: Positive correlation periods may signal opportunities for trend-following strategies, while negative correlation phases could favor pairs trading strategies.
Risk-On/Risk-Off Cues: The alignment or divergence of BTC and ES can act as a barometer for market-wide sentiment, aiding decision-making in other correlated assets.
Future FOMC events could present similar dynamics, and traders can leverage this data to refine their approach.
7. Risk Management Considerations
While correlations provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed to persist. Effective risk management is crucial, particularly during volatile periods like FOMC meetings:
Stop-Loss Orders: Ensure every trade is equipped with a stop-loss to cap potential losses.
Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements for BTC and ES.
Diversification: Avoid over-concentration in highly correlated assets to reduce portfolio risk.
Monitoring Correlations: Regularly assess whether the BTC-ES correlation holds true during future events, as changing market conditions could alter these relationships.
A disciplined approach to risk management enhances the probability of navigating FOMC volatility successfully.
8. Conclusion
The correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings highlights the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. With 63% of these events showing positive correlation, traders can glean actionable insights into how these assets react to macroeconomic shifts.
While the relationship between BTC and ES may fluctuate, understanding its drivers and implications equips traders with tools to navigate market volatility effectively. By combining historical analysis with proactive risk management, traders can make informed decisions during future FOMC windows.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Year 2025 and Beyond: Where to Place Your Bets?S&P 500:
US indices may continue their upward trend until the first quarter of 2025. The ultimate target appears to be above 6300, where they may peak and begin a significant correction. A global stock sell-off could potentially trigger a stock market crash similar to that of 2008.
India's Nifty 50:
India's Nifty 50 may find support around the 23,000–22,700 range and resume its upward movement in the final fifth wave, targeting a peak near 29,000. The Nifty 50 is likely to follow a trend similar to the S&P 500. The bullish cycle that began in 2009 is expected to conclude near the 29,000 level. Subsequently, a significant sell-off in Indian indices could trigger a major bear market, potentially erasing up to 50% of market capitalization from its peak.
Gold:
Gold may continue its consolidation for another month or two. A final surge toward the $3,000–$3,100 range is expected to mark the end of the rally that began in December 2015 at the $1,050 level. However, the bear market in equities is unlikely to spare even the perceived safe haven, leading to a pullback in gold prices as well.
Brent Crude:
Since March 2020, Brent crude experienced a remarkable rise, surging from $15 per barrel to $139 per barrel by March 2022. Over the past 33 months, it has already corrected by more than 47%. Brent crude is still expected to decline further, potentially reaching $50 per barrel within the next 3 to 6 months. However, the current inflationary trend could drive Brent prices beyond $160 per barrel later in 2025, before eventually succumbing to a deflationary trend that may persist for several years.
US Dollar Index:
The US Dollar Index peaked at around 114 in September 2022. Since then, it declined to 100 by July 2023 before starting to rise again in a corrective A-B-C pattern, forming part of a larger (A)-(B)-(C) decline. The Wave C of (B) is expected to conclude near 109, followed by another decline toward 98 by the first half of 2025. However, a renewed bullish trend in the US Dollar Index could reinforce the "Cash is King" narrative during a global equity market downturn.
USD/INR:
The bullish trend in USD/INR, which began in January 2008 at the 39 level, has seen the Indian Rupee weaken by over 60% against the US Dollar over the past 17 years. In the short term, USD/INR may peak around 86. However, the Rupee is likely to weaken further, reaching 90 against the US Dollar by the second quarter of 2025.
US Govt. 10 years bond yield:
The long-term yield on U.S. Government 10-year bond's yield indicates rising interest rates for this decade. In the short term, the yield may ease to 3%-2.6% by the second quarter of 2025. However, fears of a U.S. Government default could push the yield to 10% or higher over the next couple of years. The "Bond Ghost," along with a global equity rout, may haunt investors again in 2025-2026.
Bitcoin (BTC):
Bitcoin's bullish trend may continue until the first quarter of 2025, albeit at a slower pace. BTC still has the potential to reach around $115k-$120k, concluding the bullish run that began in November 2022 from the level of $15,500. Over the past decade and a half, BTC has significantly outpaced any other asset class globally. However, global risk aversion, which may start with an initial global equity market sell-off, could pause Bitcoin's bullish journey for the rest of 2025. Before the end of 2025, BTC might lose up to 50% of its value from its peak.
In the longer run, however, BTC has the potential to become the most valuable asset class globally, even after experiencing a 50% erosion in its value.
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,995.10
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 5,936.66
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 6,110.04
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lies up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12/24/2024 : Rally111Please pay attention to this video. Today, I share some vital data related to how I plan on helping all of you become better traders in 2025 and what you need to do to try to improve your own trading results.
Trading is not gambling. It is not about throwing money at trends and hoping to catch a few winners.
Trading is about trying to time market trends when the best opportunities are ready for profits - then getting out of those opportunities as profits start to mature.
Trading is about honing your skills to be able to target 35% to 55% or more every 15 to 25+ days.
If you can do that efficiently every 15 to 25+ days, then you are SET.
You can turn $1000 into more than $300k in less than a year trading like that. Then, you can turn that $300k into more than $10 million in another year.
Can you imagine that happening to you and your family?
It is all about having the right tools, gaining proper knowledge and experience, and putting that to practice/use. And that is what I've been trying to teach you for the past 6+ months - the knowledge and skills to be able to see/time the biggest market moves.
I know many of you have followed me for many months. I appreciate all of you. Now, as we close out 2024, let's make a commitment to really focus on gaining the success we desire for ourselves and our families so we can enjoy 2025 as a better year.
I challenge all of you to a straightforward goal: Learn, Practice, Gain experience, and Execute better trades so you can grow your accounts and move into the "Trader Life" you have always desired.
Trade 2-4 times a day (when opportunity strikes) and try to grow your account by 35 to 55% every 15 to 25 days. That's all it takes.
Are you ready?
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SP50 / Bullish Momentum and Key Levels to WatchS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price retested the bearish correction we mentioned earlier, then pushed upward again and continued toward 6022.
The S&P 500 has a bullish momentum aiming for 6022. To confirm the bullish area toward 6099, a 4-hour candle should close above 6022.
Otherwise, as long as the price trades below 6022, it will likely oscillate between 6022 and 5971 until a breakout occurs.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5995
Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6099
Support Levels: 5971, 5936, 5919
Trend Outlook:
Consolidation: Between 6022 and 5971
Bullish Trend: Above 6022
Quick technical idea on S&P 500The EASYMARKETS:SPIUSD has been on a roller coaster ride lately. But the main question is, will we see a new all-time high by the end of this year.
Disclaimer:
easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. We stayed below Friday’s high but bulls had a really bullish close. Until they get a strong move above 6050, I lean neutral. Above 6050 there is no more resistance until 6100. Bears something below 5965 but for now they could be very happy with any daily close below 6000.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5950 - 6050
bull case: Very strong close by the bulls. Year end rally is on if they get follow through above 6050 tomorrow. A measured move up from Friday’s rally would bring us 6230+. For now we have a clear bull wedge which leads perfectly to 6100 tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears did ok until the breakout above 6030. Now they have a do or die moment again to keep the market below 6050 or they need to cover because market could go all the way up to 6200 or higher.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Neutral. Very bullish close but bulls need follow through above 6050 tomorrow. If they get it, we probably won’t stop until 6100 or higher. Market is in balance around 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling 6030 before EU open and buying 5985 because of the head & shoulders bottom (head was the low 5965) after US open on the 5m tf.
Bullish Cypher - SPY spotted a bullish Cypher pattern on SPY’s daily chart, and it looks promising.
Entry: Current Market Price
Stop Loss: 575.50, just under the D-point, to give the trade some breathing room.
Targets: All time high
Ideas and Inputs are welcome.
Thank you for dropping by.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-23: BreakAway PatternToday's pattern is a Break Away pattern.
I'm not expecting much to happen just before Christmas, but this is when surprises may happen.
If you have not already protected your capital - now is the time to do it (almost too late at this point).
You should be prepared for anything that happens and move into a position of safety related to the holidays.
Remember, the markets will always be here. Get through the holidays and get busy trying to enjoy your life.
I suspect the markets will stay very flat over the next 3 to 5+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold