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Spx500analysis

SPX Daily quick updateI didnt have much time for a research this weekend, it's our family trip we are on and I have no time to trade at all. As promised, do a quick weekend update, will do a broader one for those who are on my email list (if I find time later today) Next week most important resistance is 3918-20SPX on a daily closing level and 4090SPX on weekly closing. 4090 is the dev bull bear line now, where the main resistance is down to 4300 from 4425 Looking back at the last year same week opening, Im kinda expecting the same with a big gap down and bottom on the 20-21st. Or it can stretch to 3900 (smaller degree resistance) and 3918-20SPX. With making lower highs and lows since Jun rally of the lows, I think we have one more unfinished flush to go. I dont rule out a move up to 3900-20 on Monday/Wednesday to top this weak move off the Jun lows, then more weakness into EOM before a significant rally in Aug. It could be a move down to 3660-70 or a new low to 3500, the timing is running out for the later number. I have 20-21st as dates of importance, so either a low (if we fall apart on Monday) or a high (follow through on Monday). I will be exiting most of my short if its a low and the opposite if its a high. Again I have mixed signals, so cant be certain at this moment, but Im in lotto puts on to of my main fut short position, just in case we get a last year repeat. Then the rally up into Aug/early Sep high and then we will get a real move down to finish this first wave of the bigger bear decline we have going into the 2023 and even possibly 2024. Something suppose to happen in Sep which will produce a crash and Oct should cap the bottom. Then we will have a nice damage control/flight of capital from EU move up into the EOY and continue lower into Mar/Apr of 2023. P.S. I doe expect the whole rally of 2020 lows to be erased with a possibility of seeing the 2020 lows next year Enjoy your Sunday!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
SP500 weekly areas of interest. SP500 seem to be moving in a range at the moment. Not sure if this break to the upside or downside. For the moment I'm sticking to the range in the box and wait for the breakout up or down to see where the next move will take us. Multiple areas of support below, but a fairly decent move down to get to those. Will we? I do not know. If the FED comes out with a 100 basis point interest rate hike, things might take a hard dip. (Even after 4 years of trading) I'm still learning so any comments or corrections will be most welcome. I'm not trying to guess the direction but simply to find the areas of interest and be prepared for any scenario. Very volatile market so capital preservation is the primary goal here. Take small profits and compound it. Find strong areas of support and resistance and trade accordingly. Trade the range and not the news. Inflation is high and so there should be no surprise each time to FED speaks, but there always seems to be some emotional sell off or pump each time. So watch out for those. The biggest transfer of wealth of our times is happening at the moment, so make sure you fall on the right side. Do not over complicate things. Stick to your levels and do not fall for "pumpamentals" Remember this: YOU DO NOT NEED TO FIND THE EXACT BOTTOM OR TOP . Just need to find a good entry to take some money out of the market each time. As a great trader once told me, when everything is bullish, look for a reason to be bearish (and vice versa) and you will never get surprised. Heard mentality will get you crushed in this market, so do not blindly follow any signals. Help yourself by learning some charting. Simply learning to identify support and resistance will save you some money. Take it one step at a time and you will get there. There will always be a new indicator or magical new tool that will promise the world. Remember this, most indicators are reactive tools and will give you a signal once a significant part of the move is already done for. Everything you need trade can be found on tradingview and they are available for free. Many of your fellow traders have worked hard and have made many of their tools available to you for free. You do not need to spend 1000s to buy an indicator that will give you your dreams. If this is your first bear market experience, hold steady and preserve your capital at all cost. Do not guess the bottom or short the bottom. When you make it to the other side of this market, it will change your life. You would have learnt a lot of things that will help you understand the market and will help you make better financial decisions in the future. Final note. Everyone makes money in the market, but only a few manage to keep it. Be one of the few and not the many. Good Luck with your trades and lets try to find ways to help each other to find a life of financial freedom.
SP:SPX
by MikePillai
Holding 3830-45 will be bullishI think the move up is not over yet, needs to hold 3830-45 (45 is the gap fill zone), below will get us down to test 3730-60 zone again. 3730 is the main support at the moment. All my resistance numbers from July 7th post are active! Please note that the C&H formation is still out there and it needs to get above 3945SPX to trigger the rally to 4225+ There is also a possible W formation in play with the right V low to hit my main target 3555-50 with a possible stretch to 3500. So quite hard place to be swing long or short. day trade is the answer for now. There is a great long setup is coming soon for the big rally in Aug. Ideally of my target zone. Thinking of today's low to hold and rally up into mid week before a good size sell off down to 3730-60 at min. Im traveling today/tomorrow, wont be on much to update.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX longer term updateThis is a quick update with levels of importance. I will update in more detail those who are on my email list, cant do it all. So I think we will see a really this week and I have 2 targets - 3880 and 3960-90SPX Both are good for the lower lows to come sometime mid of the month, ideal bottom target is July 14-18th. The top in 3960-90 zone actually better fit with expected by me 3500 test. 3500 is a very important level and failure of that level will get us to 3200 very quickly. Off that expected low, Im expecting a good size rally, maybe a month or month an half (into end of Aug) all the way to 4300 and maybe even 4425SPX. From there we will see either 3200 or 2900-2800 (depends on the July bottom 3500 and 3200 respectfully) sometime in Oct. That low alone will be a one big A wave of the correction and the bigger B wave will go up into Jan and final low might come in Mar of 2023, unless its really extended and we wont see the low till 2024. But its too far out to speculate at this point. So my this week trading plan is to exit longs at 3880 and it taken out re-enter to ride to 3960-90 zone and then I will be naked short for the trip down to 3500 zone. If we lucky to see 3750-60 tomorrow, then I will be long for the trip to 3880 at min.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
3
ES is at Bull/Bear lineES is at Bull/Bear line, hit 110 MA and 50% retracement. A real test of who is in charge is right here. As well as ABC move up with perfect 100% extension hit on the SPX close. Jumping over the 110MA and test from the above will be a good sign of continuation of this move. There is also a possible fakeout to watch. A perfect place for a pause of this move up and some retracement. An ABC move up to 4017SPX or so is what Im looking for with A being done and we get to test 3730-40 zone before the continuation higher. Ideally we see the whole move going into the 4th of July weekend! Im slightly short as of close, kinda risky trade as this can just continue extending to 1.618 Will send a separate email with more charts to those who are on the email list. Enjoy your weekend, lots of volatility is coming after the 28th, so prepare for huge moves both ways
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
12
SPX must close the gap or it will be very bearish imoSo far so good from yesterday's update, we gaped up and the longs must be very profitable to those who followed. Must close the gap today or Monday, otherwise this could be a stop run and the target will be 3585-90SPX (fibs agree if we top here) Otherwise another breakout on Monday would do it and the main resistance is at 3970-90SPX, which will be heavy shorted by me Watching the close of the gap now, which is super close @ 3900.16
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX - RSI Analysis Two periods can be observed on the RSI for SPX on this 3Monthly chart A downward trend which correlates with a sideways move on the relative timeframe And a small uptrend that correlates with sharper growth on the SPX, these begin within the green circle These green circles show very comparative structures, however one is during an up period, while the current one is during a sideways trend period Price will very likely continue through the up channel on this larger timeframe
TVC:SPX
by Bixley
1
SPX Long Term View 4300 becomes the main resistanceMy weekend update is a day early, I will update those who are on my list with a bit more details on shorter time frame view tomorrow. We are in a bear market and those 5500 callers got destroyed all the way down calling every bottom from Jan. This is my long term view and I think we have bottomed here today or super close to it! I got targets for the potential bottom left, all SPX: - 3643 (came super close to it today) - 3688.50 - 3555 We clearly had 5 down or A completed on this move! Now the time for the B (still think this will be an ABC correction going into Mar of 2023) My main target now is 4300, down from 4425. Extension target now is 4425-45 down from 4600 110MA (descending every day) becomes the main magnet for the move up to hit at least I got 2 main targets to hit for the C, one in Oct/Nov of this year and next one is Mar of 2023. Ideally we see the first target hit and then some sort of damage control move into the EOY close and finish up in to 2600 handle (2800 at min) in Q1 of 2023. I was saying for a while now, that the whole move from 2020 will be erased this year, its getting supper close to it now! That yellow dotted line is line in sand for the bears and bulls, break it above and test it from the top will make me change my view to the whole view and look higher. Before it happens its the main line Im paying attention to now. Have a nice day P.S. next week should rally up and ideally we make a higher low end of the month before the window dressing rally
SP:SPX
by RealTima
29