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Spx500analysis

SPX Market Crash (upcoming) - 35% why?Hi Everyone, A summary of the last 5 recessions since 1981... These recessions triggered declines of at least 20%. The Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009 was the one that most affected the market with a decrease of about 57%. Regarding macroeconomics, the Americans are currently implementing a monetary tightening policies and have announced a final interest rate hike before the end of the year, so in my opinion, a recession is now inevitable. The SPX is currently forming a tweezer top on the 3-month timeframe... In my opinion, a 35% decline is possible to test the M Neckline (entry gate).
SP:SPX
by Crypto_Mercy
3
S&P 500 ForecastS&P 500 moved towards the 3980 level as traders prepared for tomorrow’s CPI data meanwhile, the tech heavy NASDAQ Composite was up by 0.4%. Today’s rebound is led by energy stocks. WTI oil managed to get above the $73 level as traders focused on the Keystone pipeline outage. From a big picture point of view, S&P 500 continues to consolidate in the range between the support at 3915 and the resistance at 3975. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum after the CPI data and the Fed decision. If the CPI report shows that inflation is slowing down, the current consolidation will serve as a good base for an upside move. However, it should be noted that traders may remain somewhat cautious ahead of the Fed decision.A move below the 50 EMA, which is located near the 3915 level, may be interpreted as a sign of an upcoming sell-off. S&P 500 received strong support near this level, so traders may rush out of their long positions if this support level is broken we still in down trend and we should break the yellow line and back 4100 level The Fed is still playing catch up to tame rising prices after its protracted gross mischaracterisation last year of inflation as ‘transitory’ and its initially timid steps to withdraw monetary stimulus, The world’s most powerful central bank is now confronted with two unpleasant choices next year, crush growth and jobs to get to its 2% target or publicly validate a higher inflation target and risk a new round of destabilized inflationary expectations. I think Rather than fall to 2-3% by the end of next year, U.S. core PCE inflation will probably prove rather sticky at around 4% or above.
SP:SPXShort
by moonypto
8
Was this the worst trading pair during the month of August?I believe that US30 and NAS100 are currently in a league of their own, one where it is so manipulated that not even SPX500's micro-movements can even keep up. If you found yourself in some bad trades with SPX500 recently, I wouldn't let it get to your head. Clear your brain! Good luck this week. How to play my chart: Buy at support TP's (green), sell at resistance TP's (red). When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there. The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays! All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ExclusivelyFX
1
SPX to new highs SPX loves cups and handles. All the highlighted Cup & Handles on daily have played out beautifully so far, they all have been to the upside so far, but now we are making one to the downside with targets towards 4150. Then how do we reach new highs? If we zoom out to monthly TF things become clearer. As long as we stay above 0.5 or close above it on monthly, we have a chance to make new highs in a year or so. I have highlighted several upside targets based on where we bounce from on monthly.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by zakoraio
Where to from here on SPXI posted this chart few weeks ago as a follwup to my short to show few possible paths SPX is going to take after it begins the descent and SPX has followed the one where I explained about a possible break of the channel into the deviation below. please refer links below the description to look at my previous posts on SPX short idea. The only difference is that , this happened bit slowly than I anticipated , which makes this drop out of the channel less likely to be a deviation now. As you can see we are bouncing from the Suupport zone as I had highlighed in my previous post. Which brings us to the question where to from here. On The Daily TF we have first hints of a reversal or a decent size bounce from here , We have bounced from a key support and ended the day with right candle stick on the daily, but we need one more day of price action to confirm the reversal. If we get another green day without breachnig the low we are likely to head up. But If we zoom in to 4h TF things become clearer. Lets Look at the follwing chart: On Friday we broke structure to the upside on 4h and created a strong low at 4336. That number is not random , Will cover this in the next chart. If we get a pull back and break higher than fridays high we will get a full Change of trend on 4h TF. Once we do we should be able to break all the 4h strong highs until we meet the Daily Strong high at 4502 which is what I think will be hard to break and we will get a strong rejection from there. From there we can do one of the two things , either come back down create a double bottom and try again to break the daily high at 4500 and continue higher. If not we will continue the daily trend by breaking 4336 low and head lower. Now lets look at why price bounced from 4336. Following chart has the answer. If you know VPA , then you know price moves in ranges , just like candle stick patterns are fractles , Ranges can act like fractles as well. In the chart you can see There are 3 ranges R1 , R2 and R3 that formed on this uptrend. R3 is the larger range that encompasses R1 and R2 and 4336 is the VAL of this bigger range and as Per VPA theory , price in a range keeps roughly bouncing between VAH and VAL of the ranges .If you look at the VAH of R3 it concides precisely with the Daily strong high at 4500 which gives us another conflunece for a rejection there into the Daily OB shown in previous chart. Finaly if throw regular old fibs and Gann Fan into the mix we get additional confluence for a rejection at the 4475-4500 region as shown in the chart below. 4475 rehion is a gann resistance and 4475-4500 0.5 to 0.618 region of the retracement. Speculation: If we do get a move like the one I have explained , i.e move to 4500 area and reject , we will have few pattern emerge like inverse H & S and cup and handle . I have highlighted the targets if they mature. But always remember all these patterns are pure manipulation to trap retails , it totally possible that there is a fakeout into the pattern where pa comes to lower 4300s and then reverses from there can creating yet another pattern a Double bottom so be careful , only trade confirmations based on market structure change. Happy Trading All !!!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by zakoraio
1
MACRO MONDAY 7 - CHINA DEFLATIONMacro Monday (7) - Advance Release China Inflation Rate – $CNIRRY China entered into deflationary territory in July 2023 and this is being shared by many with an extremely negative outlook for markets. I believe this chart outlines a very different perspective that leans more neutral than cautionary whilst also providing a more usable framework in the event of a recession scenario playing out. 🔴The last 3 global recessions commenced during China's peak inflationary periods, not during deflationary periods. This is the first clear indication from the chart (red circles). 🔵The last 3 periods of deflation in China signaled the forming of a market bottom in 2000 (over 14 months), thee market bottom in 2008 and resulted in positive S&P500 price action in 2020 (blue areas). Two out of three times China Deflation has been immediately positive for markets. ⚠️The most contentious period of deflation can be assigned to the 2000 Dot Com crash. The commencement of this 14 month period of deflation from October 2001 did not immediately mark the bottom. Instead the S&P500 made a further c.35% decline to gradually form its bottom over those 14 months ending in December 2002. If this was to repeat we could be looking at Sept 2024 as a possible market bottom and a 35% decline would be $2.9k for the S&P....👀 This scenario is worthy of consideration especially factoring in the comparisons of the 2023 AI boom to the 2000 internet boom. As we enter a new technological epoch with the likes of Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies and AI, are we getting ahead of ourselves again? Do these technologies need a little more time to mature much like the internet? Are we overextended like we were in 2000? Its hard to answer no to any of these questions but against the backdrop of record levels of QE and Fiscal Deficit we have to keep an open mind as we froth in record levels of liquidity. What is useful about this chart is that if a 2000 Dot Com crash scenario was to play out from hereon, we could use China’s move back into inflationary territory (above 0% line) as a possible confirmation of a market bottom/reversal as was the case in Dec 2002. What day is it? 🤣🤣🤣 I released this early brief Macro Monday as I seen this topic repeatedly in my feed today and wanted to share the perspective as soon as possible. There is a strong possibility of a 2nd alternative Macro Monday Chart on Monday 14th. Hope to see you there! As always I hope the chart offers perspective and utility PUKA
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by PukaCharts
SPX at major and important resistant Area SPX Reached the major Resistance Area ( the one that start the last bear market ) 4600 IS A VERY CRITICAL area because all the target for the current movement has been reached. the Market start the trend at 44° then become overheated and reached almost 72° from my point of View the market need to cooldown in order to extend a healthy movement the best option is to reaccumulate 4080 Area the good news is every ware at he moment so be carful and activate your stop lose Level to protect your gain from any shakeout movement.
SP:SPX
by AlQasim_Analysis
Macro Monday 4 - Global Net Liquidity and SPX500Global Net Liquidity and SPX 500 Comparison The Global Net Liquidity (“GNL”) indicator provides an overview of how five major central banks liquidity provisions are collectively performing. This allows us to get a sense of whether global money supply is increasing (expansionary) or decreasing (contractionary). The GNL can provide a general indication of how much liquid funds are available in Global Bank Reserves. When there is increasing liquidity, lending in all forms to the consumer is less burdensome/restrictive for the Banks and thus consumers typically have access to more finance. If GNL is increasing this can indicate that more money is available to be lent by the Banks and spent by the consumer and businesses, and when GNL is contracting it can indicate less money is circulating and less funds are available for consumers and businesses which can negatively affect overall economic performance. GNL is available by searching for “Global Net Liquidity” in the indicator section on TradingView. Full credit for the GNL indicator goes to Dharmatech who created/copyrighted this specific indicator on TradingView. There are many Global Liquidity Indicators available on TradingView, some have more banks and metrics included, others less, this is just the one of the main indicators focusing on the big five central banks. I fully intend on making my own Global Net Liquidity Indicator which factors in the other forms of liquidity and other Banks for a more accurate indication. Whilst the impact of smaller global liquidity providers/central banks are less impactful, including them might just offer us an edge week to week. What is included in this GNL: We add the following: - Fed Balance sheet (WALCL) - Japanese Balance sheet (FRED:JPNASSETS) Converted to USD - Bank of China Balance Sheet (CNCBBS) Converted to USD - UK Balance Sheet (GBCBBS) Converted to USD - EU Balance Sheet (ECBASSET) Converted to USD And we deduct: - Reverse Repo Market (RRPONTSYD) - Treasury General Account (WTREGEN) The Chart Please acknowledge that this chart idea has built into it a speculative projection that factors in a number of generalized technical and fundamental considerations/reference points. Lets DIG IN! 1. From a TA perspective we are relying heavily on one data period from 2018 – 2020 on the GNL /S&P500 which is not ideal however a similar pattern from this period may be playing out in an amplified way at present for both. 2. From a general fundamental standpoint we draw a correlation to the Great Inflation period (1965 – 1982) but we hone in on the early years from 1966 – 1973 as these early years are similar to the high inflationary period we find ourselves stepping into at present. 3. In both 1 and 2 above the S&P500 went through significant price volatility which in both instances took the form of a megaphone pattern. Megaphone patterns have been showing up a lot in the market recently, Tesla being a case in point. Megaphone patterns are more common in volatile markets and can offer us traders or investors a structural framework to work within. Considering 1, 2 and 3 above we speculate that we may see a similar large megaphone pattern play out for the S&P500. This is illustrated in a previously shared chart called “A Crazy S&P Idea”. If you check this idea and hit play, you'll see we are currently tracking the 1966 - 1973 Great Inflation Fractal very closely. In summary: o In the past, long term GNL Contraction resulted in significant S&P500 Volatility. o In 2018 a sudden 8 month sharp 10% GNL decline as the S&P500 was continuing to new highs was an advance warning of a subsequent 14% decline in the S&P500. This is expressed on the chart as a Negative divergence. o A similar Negative Divergence is currently playing out. As noted the last Negative Divergence in 2018 took 8 months to complete. This would be Aug/Sept 2023 as a possible mid-term top under the current scenario after which we could expect a >10% pullback. It is important to recognise that the timeframes I am projecting and the price action are patterns that may play out as we find ourselves in similar but not identical circumstances. It is important that we recognise that this pattern may not play out at all. A few things are certain though, Global Net Liquidity is contracting, volatility is expected as a result and the rest is looking into the past for similar patterns to help anticipate potential structures as they evolve. One such pattern which seems plausible is the megaphone, however the S&P500 could be forming a parallel channel here or a different pattern altogether. Time will tell. If all I have done in the above chart is created awareness of GNL and of the current short term negative divergence, I think that is enough. The rest is just possible outcomes with absolutely no guarantees. I also hope that by reviewing the Great Inflationary Periods price action fractal that it can help frame in our minds just how much price volatility could be ahead of us. On a recent chart I shared which focused on the Yield Curve Inversion the maximum timeframe for a recession to commence once the yield curve first turns back up towards the 0% level is 22 months. The first definitive turn up was in March 2023 suggesting that the maximum window before a recession could potentially start is 22 months from March 2023 which is January 2025. Never has a recession taken longer than that 22 months to occur after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards the 0% level. For this reason I have included January 2025 as the potential megaphone top. This also coincides with the megaphone fractal pattern from the Great Inflation Period. I am not saying that this is exactly how it will play out but there is some confluence in the timeframes. I hope you find these charts and their correlations helpful. It will be fascinating to see how these eventually play out. PUKA
SP:SPX
by PukaCharts
Bing short on SPX.SPX along with other markets have been in a massive uptrend from past several weeks. But we are about to see a potential change in trend. On the chart you can see I have a pitchfork from the bottom, which has helped me a lot during this entire up trend, its levels have been respected very well. But now we are about to hit the top of the pitchfork very soon, this calls for either a good rejection or a change of trend. Along with the pitchfork we have a weekly harmonic pattern and SPX is hitting its prz. I have indicated the entry and Stop loss. What I am watching is a weekly close either below the white line which will make a bearish engulfing week for SPX or even better a weekly close below the yellow line which result in change of trend. Along with the pitchfork and the harmonic we also been in a trend of a green week followed by a red week from past 5 weeks, and I am expecting next week to be a red week.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by zakoraio
2