Year 2025 and Beyond: Where to Place Your Bets?S&P 500:
US indices may continue their upward trend until the first quarter of 2025. The ultimate target appears to be above 6300, where they may peak and begin a significant correction. A global stock sell-off could potentially trigger a stock market crash similar to that of 2008.
India's Nifty 50:
India's Nifty 50 may find support around the 23,000–22,700 range and resume its upward movement in the final fifth wave, targeting a peak near 29,000. The Nifty 50 is likely to follow a trend similar to the S&P 500. The bullish cycle that began in 2009 is expected to conclude near the 29,000 level. Subsequently, a significant sell-off in Indian indices could trigger a major bear market, potentially erasing up to 50% of market capitalization from its peak.
Gold:
Gold may continue its consolidation for another month or two. A final surge toward the $3,000–$3,100 range is expected to mark the end of the rally that began in December 2015 at the $1,050 level. However, the bear market in equities is unlikely to spare even the perceived safe haven, leading to a pullback in gold prices as well.
Brent Crude:
Since March 2020, Brent crude experienced a remarkable rise, surging from $15 per barrel to $139 per barrel by March 2022. Over the past 33 months, it has already corrected by more than 47%. Brent crude is still expected to decline further, potentially reaching $50 per barrel within the next 3 to 6 months. However, the current inflationary trend could drive Brent prices beyond $160 per barrel later in 2025, before eventually succumbing to a deflationary trend that may persist for several years.
US Dollar Index:
The US Dollar Index peaked at around 114 in September 2022. Since then, it declined to 100 by July 2023 before starting to rise again in a corrective A-B-C pattern, forming part of a larger (A)-(B)-(C) decline. The Wave C of (B) is expected to conclude near 109, followed by another decline toward 98 by the first half of 2025. However, a renewed bullish trend in the US Dollar Index could reinforce the "Cash is King" narrative during a global equity market downturn.
USD/INR:
The bullish trend in USD/INR, which began in January 2008 at the 39 level, has seen the Indian Rupee weaken by over 60% against the US Dollar over the past 17 years. In the short term, USD/INR may peak around 86. However, the Rupee is likely to weaken further, reaching 90 against the US Dollar by the second quarter of 2025.
US Govt. 10 years bond yield:
The long-term yield on U.S. Government 10-year bond's yield indicates rising interest rates for this decade. In the short term, the yield may ease to 3%-2.6% by the second quarter of 2025. However, fears of a U.S. Government default could push the yield to 10% or higher over the next couple of years. The "Bond Ghost," along with a global equity rout, may haunt investors again in 2025-2026.
Bitcoin (BTC):
Bitcoin's bullish trend may continue until the first quarter of 2025, albeit at a slower pace. BTC still has the potential to reach around $115k-$120k, concluding the bullish run that began in November 2022 from the level of $15,500. Over the past decade and a half, BTC has significantly outpaced any other asset class globally. However, global risk aversion, which may start with an initial global equity market sell-off, could pause Bitcoin's bullish journey for the rest of 2025. Before the end of 2025, BTC might lose up to 50% of its value from its peak.
In the longer run, however, BTC has the potential to become the most valuable asset class globally, even after experiencing a 50% erosion in its value.
