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Spx500forecast

SPX is at support levelNothing much to add since yesterday's updates. Im looking up for a breakdown trendline test. If its very bearish, then it can just get to 3965-70SPX and stop there. That would mean much lower levels are coming this month! Ideal pathway is to test 4k level and reverse down. That would be your shorting opportunity The whole move off CPI will be erased next! If it happens before the CPI on the 13th, be ware of a move down to 3400-3500!!! So be careful if long here! especially if we stop at 3970SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.64%, down from 2.82% last week according to VIX data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 56th percentile, while according to VIX, we are on 25th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.87% movement Bearish: 2.55% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 4188 BOT: 3960 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 4110 26% probability we are going to touch previous low of 3942 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 53% bullish trend Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend 4H timeframe indicates 53.3% bullish trend
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
S&P 500 Big Picture - Bearish ScenarioMany investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend. The economic sentiment is still bearish, many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued. Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur, the Double ZigZag. Structure of a Double ZigZag - Superior: (W) - (X) - (Y) - Subordinate: (ABC) - (ABC) - (ABC) - Subwaves: (12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345) Current situation If this scenario is correct, we would be in the last sub-wave ABC and now see the last downward movement as sub-wave 12345. This would complete the last subordinate (ABC) wave. This scenario would be confirmed if in the next few days/weeks the SPX initiates a trend reversal to the downside. We already see a weaker SPX struggling to pump above the yellow highlighted resistance. Even if we could make it above this, it would have to be retested first and thus hold above resistance. We now expect the SPX to either make another small breakout to the upside before correcting back down, or for the SPX to correct right away. Strongly changing market The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. Many economic news are affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace and most investors are still afraid to lose money. Thus, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will post a bullish scenario in the next few days.
SP:SPXShort
by Consyder
20 Reason buy S&P🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️ 1 ✨Eagle eye: Super BUllish 2 📆Monthly: after a deep correction now, the impulsive move is just started 3 📅Weekly: bear trend/beartrap double bottom/ make lower high 4 🕛Daily: the clear bull trend toward extreme high 😇7 Dimension analysis 🟢 analysis time frame: daily 5: 1 Price Structure: bullish 6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: flag 7: 3 Volume: high volume 8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: super bullish 9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: v 10: 6 Strength ADX: bullish 11: 7 Sentiment ROC: bull ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4 12: Entry TF Structure: bull 13: entry move: impulsive 14: Support resistance base: cip 15: FIB: ☑️ final comments: buy 16: 💡decision: buy 17: 🚀Entry: 4107 18: ✋Stop losel:4019 19: 🎯Take profit:4198
SP:SPXLong
by Optimum369
S&P 500 index: When you reach the top...A very robust US labour market data released on Friday shocked equity markets, which had surged in the aftermath of Powell's speech confirming a slower pace of rises in December. Non-farm payrolls ( NFPs ) came in at 263k, which was significantly higher than the 200k that had been anticipated, and average hourly wages rose 5.1% y/y, well above the 4.6% expected. The job report came as a surprise following an event hosted by the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, at which Powell emphasized the need to slow the pace of rate hikes as early as the December FOMC meeting, therefore solidifying a 50 basis point hike rather than a 75 basis point boost. The market was overly optimistic about a "Santa rally," spurred by Powell's latest dovish attitude, but may now face a rough two-week road leading up to the next US CPI data and FOMC meeting. Prior to Friday, 92% of S&P 500 equities were trading above their 50-day moving average, a level that has historically triggered a bearish reversal. Currently, the level has just fallen to 90%, which remains in the top high of the historical range.  During the Friday session, the S&P 500 index encountered fresh bearish pressure at 4,100 levels on Friday, after strongly breaching its 200-day moving average for the first time since April and firmly trading above the 4,000 psychological mark. The price action had reversed solidly when it met the dynamic resistance, represented by the 2022 trendline. The S&P is currently seeking support near 4,000 points, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line of the low to high of 2022. If this level is broken to the downside, there is the potential for a move to 3,800 (23.6% Fibonacci) prior to important data (US CPI) and the FOMC meeting.  Given the expected repricing of Fed rates for 2023 after the NFP reading, and the Fed blackout period, bull efforts to break over 4,100 have fewer probabilities.
TVC:SPX
by Capitalcom
SPX500 about to fall? Key-Level-Alert!Hey tradomaniacs, SPX500 just pumped up towards a major resistance-area where a lot of bearish confluence is possible. Generally I must say that the recent pump caused by Jerome Powell seems to be SUS as his entire speech was pretty hawkish. I also think he doesnt really want stocks to move up as it would not ease financial conditions and boost inflation. However, technically a good spot to watch! Either for shorts or a break to the upside! What do you think?
FX:SPX500Short
by Trading2ez
5
SPX what a day! Close above 4075SPXNow the next target is the ideal extension target 4119+- few points Ideally we get that number tested by the 5th and see 3750 filled EOM It was a panic cycle day and I did mention about it many times in my posts. One was done during my last night update together with the explanation. We got that a move in one direction above previous high or low, it was up the upside. Also mentioned that it was holding well during the day and huge calls activity. I did trade lotto SPY 408 Dec 1st calls, bought 20 at 6.5c on average, exited at 57 and most of it at 1.08-1.35, amazing lotto Also did few NQ calls, was restriking all afternoon taking profits on those in green, still have 2 running for tomorrow's am exit if not tonight Careful with being long here as the upside is limited and usually the FED day gets reversed by Fri, will it be the same this time, I dont know. There is a good short setup around 4120SPX level, no need to chase the market at this point if missed the long play today
SP:SPX
by RealTima
14
SPX pathway going into tomorrowIf the price will gap down from the open, I expect the price to hit low 39 hundred. The a rally into the FED speech, where more volatility is expected. All day today the price stopped at 10EMA on 1h, not a bullish sign Its a panic cycle day, a move, explanation below: - Given their abrupt or dramatic nature, panic cycles do not necessarily reflect changes in trend or a new high or low—they tend to align to short-term moves or temporary corrections. - A relatively fast, one-way price move, either exceeding a previous high or penetrating a previous low, but not both. My pathway for tomorrow is: - open (gap down) and test low 3900 - rally back to 3970-80SPX (important to hold on any test) - strong sell after Powell opens his mouth Im expecting bottom on Dec 1st. Also tomorrow can produce a very strong selling (if happens, then only after Powell speaking) and it should follow through into the next day. Ideally we retrace all the way to Oct 13th low, it will be a huge buy for a rally back to 3850+ at min by Dec 5-6th. The low is expected by Dec OPEX. The cycles might get inverted, so tomorrow's move will be important to determine a low or a high by Dec OPEX Tomorrow (again IF we start breaking down hard) must close below 3906SPX for a double reversal confirmation. That close will confirm the move down to test 3744-50SPX Resistance is at 3975-80, 4001-10.50, then gap fill and 4037-45SPX, closing above will produce a next target 4120SPX I might be tweeting my trades life tomorrow Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
SPX pathway to close the CPI gap if the FED does not pivotI dont see the FED to pivot any time soon. It can be another Jackson Hall event which will start a new directional move. My ideal pathway is the low around Dec OPEX and high early Jan (might be the 200MA test) Must hold numbers on closing level for tomorrow are: - 3944.50-45 - 3906.50 Both are maj support zones. Second number fits the best with other trendlines align around 3906-14SPX level If the price will get a 4k test in am, it will be a perfect short for a move down to 3944SPX a min if not more. Both long and short setups are coming, be patient if not in a trade already, be patient if you're I gave you the levels to watch, feel free to use them for your own homework. Have a good night.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX DailyThere is a potential H&S on longer time frame I mentioned before, noted on this chart as well Must hold support for the next week is at 3898-3920SPX. Has to hold on any test, otherwise the price will revisit the Oct 13th gap very quickly My ideal pathway is bottom on the 1st (I still see month of Nov close red at least compare to the previous month) and bounce into the 6th-7th high. If cycles gets inverted, then we should see the low tomorrow and high on the 1st, then it will be a first low on the 6-7th The best scenario for the EOM trade is we see low prices tomorrow am and bounce into 29th high. Then (after the 29th high) reversal down (strong) for the 1st of Dec low. 30th is showing up as a panic day on all indexes, so expect a strong move in direction of the 29th close. - The price might get the gap closed on the 29th (ideal pathway) and continue in a strong move down. Ideally its closes in direction down, it will be a good confirmation for the price going lower into the 1st low. - Ideal target is 3744-55SPX or Oct 13th gap close After the 1st low, it gets tricky. Its either makes a low on the 6th and up into the week of Dec 26th or, ideally a high and down into EOY. Jan seems to be the monthly low of this entire move down from the ATH, perfect 1 year celebration. Intraday low might not come till Mar or even May. Here is zoomed in chart link There is not much of a support below 3866 till 3744SPX, its the must hold Bear/Bull support for the next week. If looking for the extensions, I have resistance at - 4037 - 4045 - 4068-76 (main target) - 4118-20 (Maj resistance) Will be tweeting my other simple chart as can't attach it here. Im swing short and will use the next high to exit all the remaining protective longs I have. Have a great and profitable week everyone!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX gapped up in am and retested the trendline from the topSPX gaped up in am and retested the broken trendline from the top, a perfect long for those who traded my call from last night. I did warn that this can test 4007SPX, its getting close to it. Did few long trades in am, not touching this till tomorrow. FED should be a perfect catalysis for the top. If the price will hold 3946-49SPX tomorrow instead of making a new high and crap, then I would be looking for another extension to 4068 with holiday volume by the 28th high. From where I do expect a strong move down into Dec 1st low. Dec 1st low should produce a good long opportunity and ideally it will hit 3744-50SPX. Should see an easy 150 points into Dec 6th if not more. The setup is coming and its tomorrow. I will be on most of the day and will tweet my trades life.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX has a perfect gap fill confluence on Dec 1stI really like what I see here: - Longer term broken to the upside downtrend line test from the top 3744-50SPX - As well as the gap to close from CPI numbers 3748.85SPX All comes to Dec 1st. Number to watch for tomorrow is 4010.50SPX on closing level. - If the price gets to 4007SPX I will short with a 10+ points stop Maj support is at 3744SPX on closing level As noted before, I expect a strong selling into the EOM, ideally we mark a high on the 25-28th and sell hard from the 28th high. The month of Nov will have a lower close then Oct month. Ideal downside timing date is Dec 1st for the low and a high (wave 2) on Dec 6th. From there the price will produce some strong selling into 3389 and ideally 3212SPX by the Dec OPEX or few days later. A small recovery into EOY and high in Jan with crash from there. Next year will produce a great long term long opportunity imo. Have a great night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX nothing has changed for meLonger term its in bear market. Short term mid range, hard to make a good reading for either up or down move. My best guess we will see 4k and go down to 3875 if not 3750. One thing to note/repeat is EOM will be very strong in selling, at least thats how I see it, and the bottom wont come till the 1st of Dec. My pathway is lower into 22-24th, up into the Cyber Monday and very strong down move into Dec 1st low. I dont see any Santa Rally. Too many still hoping for one and I have a feeling its not coming, but will be lower into at least mid of Dec low! Then a rally into mid Jan high and continuing much lower (strongest move with VIX capitulation) into Mar low, After that Im going to trade mostly in upside into May and then Aug high. Level for tomorrow to watch is the same it was for the whole last week - 4010.50SPX Rejecting it one more time will be a perfect short or exit for a move to 3750SPX Ideally we have one more spike to 4007SPX or so and hard rejection. Have a profitable week everyone and dont get trapped after Wed Fed shenanigans (ideally a fake rally and sell from there into 24th low)
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12