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Spx500forecast

SPX broke down, nothing changed since amHi everyone, I slept in today and did few things around house, needed some time off the screen. Yesterday wasnt a good day for me, I had some losses with stops, its not an easy market to trade, too wide stops get triggered as well. Im doing swing trades now only till the first extreme hits. So far its short the rip game and Im looking for the first test of 3650SPX Targets to hit are on the chart - 3640 - 3580 - and then new lows! Im still expecting down move to new lows, crash scenario is off the table. At least that is not what Im warred about. BUT I still expect 3212 within a month time frame and ideally 28 handle (super ideal is 24 handle:) Shoot me questions, Im on my computer now! Will post other charts next. VIX to hit $60+ imo and that could be my 28 or 24 handle
SP:SPX
by RealTima
20
Triangle broken to the downside, casious of VIX OPEX flowEven if the triangle is broken down, it still can spike up into tomorrow. watching 3680-83SPX. Im holding my swing short, will add if we see higher levels today. Quick ins and outs Main resistance is at 3798SPX, Support is not even close at 3565-70SPX and below, they are minor, weak. I think we will have a range bound day into tomorrow, cautious on both sides, even if I lean towards buying the dips today This bear market rally is weak and every one of them is getting weaker and weaker. There was no pain on the market, no heavy selling, no one is calling to their broker to sell their position as they all being told this was the low! Its coming though...
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
ES the only bullish count I can come up withThis is the only bullish setup I can come up with if the price takes 3822ES The target is 3965, right where is the top of the trend channel is - Fits well with the fibs extensions To me the price has to gap up above today's am highs to have this pathway proven. Also wont rule out just a test of 3820-22ES or 3800-20SPX. I have also revised my SPX chart, see below, and it has to stick with the 3800 and reject for lower levels to be seen or it the move lower will be toasted. We are def in a window for a move lower/crash like or confirm the lows we have seen on Oct 2nd. I personally still in a lower lows to be seen camp and the low should come early Nov or can be stretched to Nov 21st. If we do start the move lower, it has to start tomorrow, Thursday the top!!! Im getting hit on weekly lotto puts due to sizing, I will do one more try tomorrow after OPEX and if we indeed see 3800 tested.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
15
SPX can be at the begging of a very stip downtrend channelSmall disclaimer: - Im not calling for a crash, but expressing a high chance (in my personal opinion based on my own homework) scenario to play out within a month time frame! - When we are out of the crash window, I will reduce this possibility to bare minimum! For this scenario to play-out (not a trading advice, just a possibility), we need a daily close below 3450-55SPX, then its in a clear fall. - Invalidation point is a move above 3840-50SPX on closing basis. Then the whole pathway is a trash Perfect first cycle low early Nov, if not last day(s) of Oct and main cycle low for this year is on week 21st of Nov (+2 or -1 day). Supports are on the chart, again if it starts falling (which I think we will) soon. First big low should come on the 24th of Oct imo. Moon cycle crash window is from 20-24th. If it misses, then no crash and maybe we just bottom at 34 handle or 32 handle (my ideal target all year) max. Please keep in mind, that this is not my main pathway till 3450-55SPX is broken on daily level, must close below it, better for 2 days straight. I will be updating support levels on the go (if this plays out), but main support levels (lines) are on the chart. Will be updating more in this thread tomorrow with smaller timeframe charts
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX EOW Close ChartWell its a very bad close imo. Bullz have only one chance to hold todays close in B wave down and rally up to 3800 even! But if it instead (higher odds imo) we crash from the open, then my pathway will be - Down to 3400 - Bounce to 3500 - Down to my 3212 (better hold it) If 32 handle wont hold, we will see 2855SPX by 24th! Be ready! Im sure majority is not ready for this type of scenario! Also I think we bottom EOM or early Nov, how low only the GOD knows! Im short lots of SPY puts but will do ES and NQ short on Sunday after I see the opening reaction of the futures. Have a great weekend
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
45
SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 SPX/SPY Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.44%, falling from 4.48% of the last week. At the same time, its currently place on the 90th percentile based on the ATR calculations. With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of: In case of a Bullish movement : 2.54% In case of a Bearish movement : 2.7% With the current volatility point, we have a 24.3% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel: TOP : 3751 BOT : 3430 At the same time, there is currently a 38% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 3730 And there is a 66% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3500 Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -68% indicating a very bearish trend(and we can confirm this since november 2021)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
SPX 2 pathways, all the same resultMorning everyone, I sleep in today and missed am short, sold my puts from yesterday at 3620ES zone though, re entering those now again. The price hit my 3720-30 (as per my yesterday's update) zone in am, was an amazing short and I missed it! I see 2 possible pathways: - first is the price is working on the right shoulder and will push much lower next week. My ideal pathway - second is the touch of the upper channel of the trend channel ABC black line. If second, we should touch 3600 and hold, then push for the final move to hit 3815-20SPX Its Friday, do not over trade, let the trade come to you and then press! Im swing short into EOM!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
31
S&P 500 USD - Black TuesdayA crash is coming in the stock market in the following days: probably this week or maybe next week. The last intermediate cycle lasted for 80 bars and ended on the 16.06.2022. The new intermediate cycle rallied to the 200 SMA then dropped into the DCL on the 9th Sept. The new daily cycle is only on day 14 - we are in this daily cycle - and it is close to the support of 3634... If we we are having the same length of intermediate cycle like the last one then we are going to break 3634 this week and drop to 2962. If we are having a longer intermediate cycle ( 100-120 bars) then we are going to bounce from here for a few days and break 3634 a few days later sometimes next week. As the dollar seems to working to print its multi year top these days there is a good chance that the support zone is going to break tomorrow or Wednesday this week.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by chartwatchers
8
SPX is at Very Very Very Dangerous zone!Hi everyone, Im on vacation from Sunday to next Sunday, but I will be trading and will be still posting updates. I dont want to call for a crash here, chances for it are super slim. Any trade must be protected with a stop and only you as a trader can make the decisions on what to do with the information you're getting. Must do is your own homework! Again do not mortgage your house and go all in as this can be a very well one big bear trap! Im looking for that final move to be over by end of Oct or early Nov regardless. (updated about this last week Thursday or so) My target zone is 34 handle by the time window outlined above with ideal target being 32 handle. Below it, the markets are in real troubles! Can it be a crash, I don't know, I'm too far out to predict such things. Here is my quick but important update: - I wont rule out another low on Monday am and in fact I will be shorting on Sunday if we get a bounce. - That low can be lower 52 week low or just 3610SPX test Levels of importance - 3640.50 (again) - 3610, below this level comes - 3550-40 - 3511 - 3480-85 all SPX Resistance is at 3735-45; 3775-85 Here is my 1h chart On this chart I have outlined support levels, when/if broken you know whats coming next! IF we get a strong rally into Wed, I will not be holding longs at all, line none! I will only do options (puts) on what Im ready to loose. So here is a clue to how low this can fall in a very short time: - check the fibs from the low of 2009 to the high this Jan, check where is 78.6% retracement is
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
32
SPX pivot points!Check out how the daily Pivots aligning!!! I expect S2 to hit if it break this week! - 3228SPX, my target was 3212, close enough Ideally we hit S3 on this one! - is at low 2800!!! Perfect storm is getting ready! If we rally tomorrow, I will short EOD close and add on Wednesday Dont tell me that i didnt warn about this possibility of much much lower levels to be seen in end of Oct to Nov 21st week timeframe! Timing is everything is this game, Do Not Get Trapped!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
30
SPX last night email update chartMorning everyone, Im sharing my last night work with you here. This was sent out to those who are on my email list. It was a long update, I will copy paste only important stuff here: I think we get Jun low to Aug high type of move but much faster. Looking at the zoomed in chart (4h white background chart) - You can see that I expect to have a deep pullback into Fri (ideal target is 3680-70SPX), another move up from there either to 3875SPX to finish up the whole move up of this 4th wave. - Or we get Jun to Aug (but faster) move off the lows and get a move from upcoming Fri low back to 3785, down to 3645 and final strong move up to 4040-4100SPX. This pathway will make the next high not mid month but closer to the EOM (making higher monthly close) After mid or end of the month high expect the final move down early Nov to finish up the whole move down of A wave from Jan high and mark the low for the year. Targets to hit: - If the price makes 4040-4100SPX , then the first target will be back to just a bit under 3600SPX - Ideal target zone is 3475 and 3389-95SPX - 3212SPX is the extended target Trading plan for the rest of the week. - Looking to start taking off my swing short at 3715-20SPX level and will start layering with longs there 25% - Exit full short position at 3670-80SPX level and get 50% more longs to make it 75% long position - In case we hit (less odds) 3640SPX I will be 125% long, otherwise I will add on a move above 3755-3760 test and hold. On the simple daily SPX chart 110MA is below 50MA can be the main target to hit next, need to close above the mid Bollinger, which I think will happen on the move up after Fri low. I really think the price should close the last gap from 3678SPX before the move up resumes. I want to see a price gap down below 3750 from the open to have my plan playing out. 3640SPX is a very important number to hold on any closing level! Numbers of importance for tomorrow: Resistance: - 3876SPX (closing above should see 3960SPX next) Support: - 3749-50SPX, closing below should see below 3700 next - 3715-20SPX - 3670-80SPX - 3640-45SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
48