SP 500 - next week planW/M downtrend
Weekly OB and daily fvg already hiti and came back down to it
I expect price to broke this level next week and drop further down
Spx500forecast
SPX and NDX made higher lowsDouble bottom here, ideally we go hard up on Tuesday.
Im in with lotto Sep 7th calls as well as some ES longs, short NQ from higher level, keeping as a hedge
Its a panic cycle week as well as a directional change week, so a straight move up is not ruled out
Have a good weekend.
61.8 is at 3899.75must revert from there or its a crash Tuesday!
3910, then 3922 and main resistance/support is at 3943.50SPX
13 min left
4025 held like crazy!I didnt expect such a big Fri fckery all day, wanted some retracement off 4025 and break it above and it just fall!
The white trendline is the king, support cluster is 3910-50, closing below will be very bad going into the weekend!
Its a weekly closing today. Next weekly support is not there till 3720!
Im still thinking they will squeeze into the close, but if they wont, Im stopping on my longs and probably will buy some lotto puts for Tuesday!
SPX must take 3997 to continue higherVery important to get above 3992-97 tomorrow to continue this move up!
If we reject it in am, very dangerous sign.
Ideally we go up into that target, then retrace and go above 4k level.
The price penetrated my support cluster zone (3910-50) and (very important) closed above all 4 supports we broke today, its bullish.
The issue is, we need a confirmation and trade above Thursday close. Also the 3992-97 resistance zone! Last time we failed that test, the rest is history.
So tomorrow numbers are going to be an important market mover imo,
Projected high is on the 5th, low is on the 7th and high is on the 12-13th, ABC like move up is what Im expecting
Main resistance is at 4025SPX and the 4076-80SPX
Very important - the surprise is on the downside! This has a potential to crash hard, have stops!
Have a good night
SPX day updateI cant post 5 min chart, but you can check yourself.
Use 5 min chart and apply 110MA on it and see where the price topped last few days!
Now its a must press here to finally break the bearish trend, next 20 min will be important!
1H chart is fighting 10EMA as well...
I want green close, Im long and I dont like the price action (def the game we play), so if we reject again and wont close strong, we can crash into the 5th!
Have stops!
SPX MUST HOLD 3890-3900 tomorrow!Futs are down and it seems the flush continues!
Must hold the 3910-43 cluster tomorrow or it opens the door for low 3800!
Absolute must hold is at 3890-3900 tomorrow am, right at the support trendline!
If it holds and reverses tomorrow, we should go up into the 5th high, ideally we see 4080-4135 at min
Have a good night
Just wondering how many expect this?4020-23SPX is the must watch, failing to regain it by tomorrow's close, will be super bearish imo!
I know many are trapped and can be in denial, get protection!
Im going to enter with lotto Sep 6th puts if we see 4020 today/tomorrow
SPX has more room to go when NQ hit all the targetsSPX can stretch all the way down to 3900-10 if it wants to.
Maj support cluster is at 3910-50SPX
Today is the reversal cycle day, so I take what I have.
Main resistance now is 4025, above it, we can fly.
Mid of the channel hit, not shown on the chart
Monthly resistance close is 4156SPX, so must watch on closing level, its tomorrow...
Im long
SPX very muted reaction to Fri sell offI was expecting a better rally off today's lows.
Main support cluster is 3910-50SPX
Main resistance is at 4125 and 4160-65SPX
One more support is in 3992-96 zone
Was looking for a low on the 29th, we got that, tomorrow will be a tell if we get a reversal Tuesday.
Im planning on buying the longs tomorrow if we make new lows and hold into the 2-5th high.
NQ already hit 2 targets and one more to go (doesnt have to go lower, so careful with shorting).
We are in bottoming timing zone, must note that!
SPX target zone got hitI know its crazy in one day, but targets are targets! Homework pays well when you follow and stick with it
SPX end of the week updateI had no time to post this last night, but I did the ES.
We did hit my upper target at 4210-20, reversed and never looked back!
Was looking for this move for several days now, but it came so big, I didnt expect to have so much of a move in 1 day.
This gives me more confidence on my lower target zone to hit 3930-50SPX
So for today's close 2 very important numbers are:
- 4157
-4125
Closing below second number will make me even more confident of seeing that lower target next week.
Main supports are:
- 4078 (expect a good bounce from this number, ideally to test 5150 level)
- 4050
Main daily resistance is at 4177 now
have a great weekend
Gapping up into reversal in the short term?it appears to be a now mildly bullish sentiment in the short term, but a period of uncertainty with low volatility.
what technical indicators does anyone think were present for today's short term reversal?
calm before the storm?a larger than expected gap up this morning with no fundamental change to remove the underlying bearish atmosphere.
was this gap up the last opportunity to go short ahead of the fed meeting tomorrow?
or is this simply retail traders eagerly investing extra funds they were saving to pay off their loans, despite market circumstances?
please leave a comment, curious to hear opinions on the matter.
SPX level of importance is 4145 on closingMorning, quick update here
Lets see if we close below 4145 again, then we are going down into the 29th low
I have a main resistance to hit at 4166+-, above it it can stretch to 4175-76, should hold the night highs today and make a lower high during the regular hours imo
Im going to short 4166 and 4175-76 with a stop
Im currently long ES from 4148, tight stop there
Right chart - SPXPosted my other working chart instead of this one.
Again very important to watch 22-23rd highs being taken or making lower highs.
Today's level of importance is 4145SPX, closing above will press higher tomorrow, below not good for the bullz
On the road all day, will not post till late night
SPX must watch number for the close is 4135.30!Watch 4135.30SPX number, closing below will flush tomorrow and vice versa!
1h is showing a positive divergence when 15min is actually setting up for a flush, RSI is below 50, MACD below 0.
It should give one way or another!
Very interesting thing is this, next stop is at 4069-80 and nothing till 3951!
On the upside must close above 4140.20 for a push higher.
Resistance is at 4140, 4211 and 4308.50 (again)
My bottoming timing is on the 25th
One more flush will setup a good buyIm looking for a test of 4200 to buy or short below 4267.50SPX at the close.
VIX is out of its wedge and Monday can be a good gap down again if we close below 4200
Very important level is 4267.50 on the closing level today!
SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down tomorrow.
Again has to gap down below 4255-57SPX to mark the top being in place (reference to March topping pattern)
If we gap down to 4189-4207SPX (the bottom of the channel) and hold it early from the open, then I will go long for a move up into the close.
If this is what will play out, then we should re-test 4308.50-23 on Monday with a gap up and crap.
So must watch number for tomorrow is 4189-4207. Must gap down below 4255 to have this setup more probable!
Some good setups are coming, just need to be patient.
Maj resistance is at 4308.5SPX on closing level.
SPX needs a Gap Down below 4255-57 tomorrow...Quick update.
The price needs to gap down tomorrow below 4255-57 to confirm the top being in place.
Usually this type of the move trap bulls for long, so as long as we gap down hard tomorrow, I can mark the top being in.
There is still a room to squeeze to 4330-34, but Im not really playing it unless I see a good setup.
If we gap up tomorrow, will have to revisit my charts.
Tomorrow should continue today's day, we had a reversal to downside and if this is real we should see a low on the 22nd-23rd, small bounce 23-24th and last low or higher low on the 25-26th
24th is a panic cycle day! Mark it on your calendar
Numbers to watch tomorrow:
- Maj resistance is the same - 4308.50 (on closing level)
- First main support is at 4255-57
- 4220 and next is at 4175
- Ideal target of this move is at 4125-46
Ideally we should see something similar of a move from EOM Mar high. You can revisit a gap down below 4520, which was retested and never seen since after.
Tomorrow's move should be a start of the first move down, fits with cycle lows into 22-23rd or 25-26th, then a rally into Labour Day high/lower high.
The week of Sep 5th is a panic cycle week, so a gap down from there is expected to trap all the bulls, especially after staying long over the long weekend.
Have a good night
spx500Hello everyone,
We have a very clear 3 wave structure here that has extended the 3rd over the 1.618% fib extension after breaking up from the ending diagonal in the intermediate 4th wave position. I wouldn't expect SP500 to fill the 3,800 or 3,600 gap anytime soon guys. So I think 4,000 or maybe , possibly over shot 3,900 worst case IMO. The 1 fib level will likely hold as strong support, but let's see.
We also know our buddy Jim Crammer is bearish, so there's that...
SPX needs to break 4245 to be bearish on this moveSPX needs to break 4245 to be bearish on this move, otherwise still in the trend channel.
Watching 4248-52 level, can be a good r/r long there at least for a bounce with a stop below 45
SPX Aug 17th updateExpected a high being hit today, we got it. Expected a close below 4308.5SPX, we got it. Expected a red close, got it only on NASDAQ and Small Caps.
As long as we stay below 4340SPX we should see lower is my next expectation.
VIX (see my update earlier) has a clear ISH pattern.
Main support is 4177SPX
Tomorrow must watch numbers are
- 4285 and especially 75, failure of holding the last number can be a good sign of the local top, need much lower to mark the maj top!
- Resistance is the same 4308.50 on the closing level.
- Upper target zone is around 4330-34SPX in case it wants to tag it, Im not playing it and will be looking for a short setup instead.
I expect this to dive down to 4150+- SPX zone by the 24th-26th and one more push to lower low /double top, or if broken above - 4425+ sometime early Sep.
Not favouring the second scenario, but can be a case for the larger B wave top in Jan.
Im not in the camp of new ATH's and the lows being in, I dont change my count to fit the price or put many counts to be right regardless.
If Im wrong at some point (everyone makes mistakes), I will admit and only then change my view. We are not even close to have that view changed at this point.
Also want to bring the attention to Sep and hope many will make a note of this warning - there is a chance we could crash that month and my charts do reflect that.
Will it be serious or not as much, I have no idea, but I see some serious signs of something happening that month.
You have been warned.
Have a good night
