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Spx500forecast

spx's options total volume, much safer to trade high volume Hey guys, nothing really solid here, jus a safer zone to trad than another. Both success rate for buy/sell are not that good at all. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 signals low volume: ------------------------------------- 77 days before a crash 63 days before a top up swing @ a top going down 63 days before a top sideways 286 before a crash ------------------------ - 4 @ months before a top like months !!! - 3 false signals -1 @ a top ***Summary: 50% months before tops 10% @ top 40% false signals HIGH RISK HIGH RISK HIGH RISK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 11 signals high volume: ---------------------- Going down bottom going down going down up siwng bottom up swing bottom bottom bottom up swing --------------------------------- 3 going down, 5 bottoms, 3 up swings -------------------------- Summary: - 45 % @ bottoms. - 27% up swings - 27% false signals -Trade high volume is safer. lower risk lower risk lower risk ----------------------------------------- trade above our High volume trigger line is much safer.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Long SetupS&P 500 Ascending Channel - Long Position Entry: $3,795.3 TP & RR: $3,873.6 (3.26) Stop Loss: $3,771.3 REASONS FOR THE TRADE I believe the price will respect the lower trendline in this ascending channel and will continue trending up. Initially, we had the order at a lower level, but it seemed that we wouldn't get a fill, so we trialed it up. Needless to say, if the price breaks through it, I am expecting a fairly sharp drop and will be looking for a short position. The current entry is at a support level, which while being a bit conservative, gives us a good RR with the SL far enough and with enough room for the trade to breathe. If the price dives down or does something unexpected, we will close the order prematurely.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Quant_
S&P 500 Channel - Long OrderSPX500 Long Position Entry: $3,772.9 TP & RR: $3,849.1 (2.92) Stop Loss: $3,746.8 REASONS FOR THE TRADE SPX500 has formed an ascending channel, so I am looking to open a long order at the lower trendline. In addition to bouncing off the trendline, I also want to see a divergence in the Market Flow indicator, which will signal a potential reversal. In any case, I will be carefully examining this level, because I will not be too surprised if the price breaks through it and makes a sharp drop. Stop Loss is relatively close here, but the entry is also fairly conservative. To get filled, the price should make a small drop and then gradually start going up. If it does touch the trendline above my entry I will examine the situation and might open a long there with a SL just under the lower trendline.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Quant_
SPX500 Within a Channel - 2 Possible LongsSPX500 Long Setup Idea Entry Levels: 1) $3,785.7 2) $3,764.8 TP & RR: $3,870.7 (4.89 and 5.71) Stop Loss Levels: 1) $3,768.3 2) $3,746.1 REASONS FOR THE TRADE SPX500 may be due for a small correction and I want to catch the indicated level, which is a flip from resistance to support. I believe it should hold well, but what I am really looking for is a quick, clean wick to the entry or worst-case scenario a close and then a quick trend up. If the price closes under that level, then the trade will be invalidated and I will be looking to open the second long order with an even better Risk : Reward. I will also be looking at the Trend Volume RSI Analysis and what it prints in terms of trend and divergences.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Quant_
SPX500 could DROP!Hey tradomaniacs, if you have traded my previous SPX-LONGTRADE you should consider to take profits. The market is testing a round number of 3.800 right at ten upper Trendline. The FOREX-MARKET is currently pricing in a risk-off-scenario with a rising DXY (US-DOLLAR) and falling AUD and NZD. We see a divergence in stocks and Forex which is never a good sign. KEEP IN MIND that we will get to see the Non-Farm-Payrolls tomorrow. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trading2ez
5
SPX's Daily Purchase/Sale filing for directors/officers ***The legendary Fidelity Investments manager Peter Lynch once said, "Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.” this guys is just simply smart. ***Beautiful data presented here very useful for long investors . Simple strategy, with every consideration you would usually take , just buy after these guys start buying : -) . ***No success rate here, just extremes reading here that's all *** I wish Tradingview would add this to their indicators. ------------------------------------------- ***Trigger line to start watching for, for buying, is reading above 300: ----------------------------------------- Date Reading Mar, 16 2020 465 Aug, 10 2011 357 Mar, 10 2009 356 Dec, 1 2008 302 Nov, 28 2008 606 Oct, 14 2008 306 Nov, 13 2007 307 Nov, 20 2007 329 Aug, 6 2007 303 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ***Trigger line to start watching for, for buying, reading between 200-300 : ------------------------------------------------ March 2, 2020 207 Dec, 11-26 2018 204*217* 229*220*226 Nov, 21 2018 215 Nov, 13 2018 250 Nov, 14 2016 217 Nov, 12 2015 202 Aug, 24 2015 239 Nov, 13 2012 220 Nov 12, 2009 204 Aug, 17 2007 295 May 11, 2004 212 May, 4 2004 216 ---------------------------------------------------- ***Selling reading above 400 are reflected here Red Arrows
SP:SPX
by samitrading
5
S&P 500 Index Long SetupSPX500 LONG SETUP IDEA Entry: $3,715.9 Stop Loss: $3,680.5 TP Levels and RR: $3,784.4 (1.94) REASONS FOR THE TRADE I know that I am posting this with a bit of hindsight, but by the time I opened my order and came back to do the analysis the price has already gone up. Anyway, I am posting this in case there's a small retracement and you decide to jump on board. The indicator Trend Volume RSI Analysis shows a clear divergence in the volume and you can also see the buying and selling distribution in the Multi Time Frame Effective Volume Profile below. I have also applied a Fib Retracement to this ascending triangle, which indicates that the take profit should occur somewhere near the potential resistance. The SL level is put at a level far enough from the trend line. You can be slightly more aggressive here and move the SL up, which would significantly improve your RR Ratio. Generally speaking, breaking down this trendline would invalidate the setup, so if you have taken that particular trade you may close your position before hitting the SL.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Quant_
SPX'S Weekly Japanese candlestick signals since inception 1957 Hey Traders , what's up. From me to Humanity . I know that there is allot of data, i hate that as every one else does. But, if you want to keep it simple just study, analyze and write down the Red & Green boxes they should sum up most of the study. I have included all the data here . So feel free to redo, redistribute, reuse or shar it here or outside of tradingview with anyone even with out mentioning the source. from me to humanity whom are trading SPX : - ). Moreover, If anything that this data is telling us in a very short English terms "Do not chase tops on weekly candles !!! " . Also, some weekly candles could be treated as extinct data suggesting that !!! what's up with that!!! no Golden rule for these candles. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Bullish weekly candles :- Weekly Bullish Happened success rate Max profit Max cost Risk/reward starting date. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ***Engulfing 28 60% 50% 43% D 1953 ***Hammer 21 77% 102% 4.55% C+ 1952 ***Inverted Hammer 11 45% 8% 4% F 1953 ***Marubozu White 65 84% 40% 33% B - 1982 ***Long Lower Shadow 78 70% 68% 40% C- 1963 ***Rising Window 26 85% 165% 5% B 1971 ***Spining Top White 59 61% 40 % 31% F 1979 ***Dragonfly Doji 8 37% 4% 9 F 1951 ***Upside Tasuki Gap 6 40% comes and goes !!! ***Tweezer Bottom 11 43% Disappeared since 2007 ***Doji Star 3 33% Disappeared since 1982 !!!! ***Dragon Doji 2 50% -------------------------------------------------------- Spining Top White 59 times : since 1979 --------------------------------------------------- Profit Lost z 4 11 z 2 4 z 13 3 z 3 31 4 17 7 z 31 3 5 21 2 2 4 z 4 2 1 z 2 2 z 1 z 5 7 14 7 11 z 10 18 21 1 z 2 3 z 7 7 3 z 4 z 3 1 z 2 z 5 2 34 9 5 z 4 25 z 2 13 z 3 15 z 7 z 4 z 18 40 z 4 12 -------------------------------------- Dragonfly Doji 8 times : since 1951 -------------------------------------------- profit lost z 2.55 4.85 z 2.42 z 9.09 z 1.60 4.89 3.50 z 3.37 ------------------------------ 37% success rate ------------------------------------------- Hammer 21 times : since 1952 --------------------------------------------------------- Profit lost 8.46 4.39 8 z 6.46 8 6 66 70 4 4 4 z 1.86 z 4.55 3.27 z 9.02 4.83 3.04 102 2.59 z .91 10.99 ------------------------------------ success rate 77% -------------------------------------------- Inverted Hammer 11 times : since 1953 ------------------------------------------------------------ Profit lost 4.56 z 7.95 z 2.97 z 4.43 z 4.72 z 2.54 z 6 8.14 3.27 1.69 1.90 ----------------------------------------------------------- success rate 45% -------------------------------------------------------------- Marubozu White 65 times : since 195 ---------------------------------------------------- Profit Lost zero 33.98 zero 14.86 zer 11.91 4.56 9.75 2.16 6.25 2.06 z 14.92 8.55 4.76 1.81 19.11 5.60 1 2.55 7 z 8.88 1.61 2.84 12.43 2.64 5.44 4.77 12.32 1.81 1.25 1.93 31.87 z 30.37 3.87 12.84 4.49 z 7.68 2.13 5.79 26.66 4.31 17.15 z 6.44 2.39 33.20 9.71 11.63 7.47 15.27 3 4.75 4.66 17.26 z 6.63 z 4 1.59 3.58 8.66 3.56 5.71 5 30.40 1 2.76 8.27 7.64 8.84 40.67 50s million signal -------------------------------------------------- 84 % success rate ---------------------------------------------------------- Long Lower shadow 78 times : Since 1966 --------------------------------------------------- profit lost 32 8 18 10 11 13 z 3.99 16.11 z 16 z 4 z 3 2.79 z 1.85 15 3 6 2 3 z 10 z 5 14 4 z 5 10 6 z 40 6 2 24 z 1 z 1 2 z 6 z 7 6 13 z 21 z 34 5 z 4 z 9 12 5 15 33 13 4 2 2 4 6 16 z 12 z 34 18 2 13 3 3 z 5 6 65 27 4 26 z 26 9 7 13 4 20 z 11 z 4 2 z 3 25 22 21 ---------------------------- success rate 70% ------------------------------------------------------------ Rising Window 26 times; since 1971 --------------------------------------------------------- Profit Lost 5 2 7 5 2 1 3 z 3 12 2 4 1 1 10 1 z 3 1 19 4 165 z 5 z 1 80 3 21 4 --------------------------------- success rate 85% ------------------------------------- Engulfing 28 times : since 1953 ----------------------------------------------------- profit lost 33 z 6.76 z 19.4 z 23.69 12.18 z z 43.96 5.29 6.12 50.13 4 z 7 21.47 1 1 z 5.44 z 3.29 4.94 z 34.05 6.15 5.15 z 23.41 7.19 21.27 19.57 z 17.18 3.82 2.12 z 9.66 ---------------------- 60 % success rate -------------------------------------------------------------- 2/ Bearish weekly candles : - weekly Bearish Happened success rate Max Profit Max opportunity cost Risk/Reward starting date ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ***Engulfing 67 68 % 55% 28% D+ 1956 *** Hanging Man 30 50% 7% 28% F 1957 ***Shooting Star 23 47% 19% 63% F 1950s ***Long Upper Shadow 58 36% 46 % 95% F 1957 *** Doji Star 11 37% 13% 27% F 1952 ***Dark Cloud Cover 13 77% 55% 11% C + 1955 ****Tweezer Top 34 44% 18% 31% F 1954 *** Marubozu Blace 46 58 % 39% 48% F 1956 ***Spining Top 77 35% 48% 35% F 1963 ***Falling Window 23 47% 25% 78 % F 1953 ***Harami 4 times 75 success rate. ***Downside Tasuki Gap Extinct 1957. ****Evening star once in 70 Years. ***Gravestone Doji once in 60 years. *********************************************************************************************************** Long Upper Shadow 58 times : 1957 ----------------------------------------------------------- Profit lost z 32.84 z 10.14 z 3.79 4.40 z 14.79 2.4211 33.02 5.88 z 25.74 8.74 z 7.02 z 8.71 z 5.13 z 2.36 z 14.33 z 9.58 1.76 z 6.25 z 12.99 11.97 z z 8.74 z 1.78 z 14.58 3.74 3.74 z 5.72 z 95.94 3.98 3.80 z 3.52 1.92 4.54 z 4.29 9.49 z 4.23 z 22.70 z 4.51 z 12.29 7.95 z z 10.31 z 32.59 z 53.98 3.48 z z 10.72 z 3.88 z 6.80 46.87 z 3.28 z 8.86 5.28 z 4.45 z 2.60 z 26.37 4.7 z 3.22 19.47 z z 7.87 --------------------------------------------- 37 % success rate Marubozu Black 46 times : since 1956. ---------------------------------------------- Profit lost 10.81 z z 13.69 8.23 5.82 z 3.44 z 3.59 z 6.52 z 48 z 22.48 5.66 22.20 39.28 5.51 z 33 11.31 28.61 z 14.55 z 24.54 z 7.86 5.37 z 10.48 z 4.04 z 28.83 2.65 3.95 3.58 1.43 1.55 z 3.03 z 11.45 1.30 3.83 z 6.12 2.33 2.02 1.11 2.00 8 1.95 3.19 .077 z 8.58 z 15.88 4.37 8.36 z 4.20 -------------------------------------------------- 58 % success rate. ------------------------------------------------------ Doji Star Bearish 11 times : since 1952 ----------------------------------------------- profite lost zero 4.99 z 4.79 z 4.98 3.17 z 14.94 5.12 13.33 z 3.20 z 27.14 14.33 z 4.72 -------------------------------------- success rate 37 % ---------------------------- Spinning Top Black 77 times : since 1963. ----------------------------------------- profit lost 7.17 z 4.46 z 1.69 z 8.07 z 7.06 z 30.32 z 13.68 z 3.32 9.79 z 4.66 19.39 z 15.47 z 14.17 z 3.94 z 2.65 z 3.7 z 2.82 z z 4.14 1.75 6.49 z 10.14 2.78 3.27 7.81 2.45 z 3.29 22.29 z 26 z 30.35 z 34.07 z 2.86 z 17.74 z 30.71 z 19.36 z 35.35 z 2.33 11.65 z 4.74 3.34 z 15.59 2.79 z 4 z 5.17 z 24.81 z 2.27 7.74 z 4.34 6.97 z 9.32 z 20.40 z 2.59 z 5.50 z 14.24 9.92 11.17 13.33 z 8.9 13.55 48.82 z 3.07 4.91 9.70 z 27.97 36.37 z 5 2.90 z 2.54 z 20.69 z 9.08 z 7.76 z 2.07 z 5.37 z 2.34 4.08 3.81 ------------------------------------ 35 % success rate ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dark Cloud Cover 13 times: since 1955? ****************************************************** profit lost 6.10 19.62 7.60 55.83 4.7 2.22 5.63 zero 9.24 zero 8.19 3.19 zero 11.98 2.12 13.54 ------------ 77% success ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tweezer Top 34 times : since 1954 -------------------------------------------- profit lost z 25.15 z 31.33 z 3.10 z 3.58 z 14.29 z 10.19 10.66 1.56 z 3.38 z 10.31 5.57 1.70 z 4.57 z 5.54 z 37.93 3.61 z 77.84 z 2.12 5.37 3.60 2.22 2.69 2.85 18.56 z 25.53 z 9.25 z 4.82 3.78 3.30 z 2.39 5.23 5.81 z 11.94 z 27.41 --------------------------- 44% success rate ******************************************************************************************** Engulfing 67 times : since 1956 Big problem is that small dips then big bull markets, need re examination. ------------------------------------- profit lost 4.94 z z 4.11 .84 z z 11 2 .41 z 30.21 2.65 z 4.31 55.15 z z 6.43 2.30 1.89 1.84 8.08 6.54 z 9.15 9.38 4.31 3.10 z 17.16 7.84 z 6.21 z 14.37 z 3.06 z 2.02 2.94 3.34 z 4.07 2.09 2.17 1.97 2.45 z 9.94 z 19.18 1.89 1.09 4.45 2.97 6.61 z 4.18 1.93 3.18 z 5.45 5.57 1.90 z 4.09 11.97 z 6.69 z 15.62 46.26 3.52 4.65 8.64 6.36 34.58 8.94 6.16 20.64 9.04 z 4.23 2.64 28.67 2.81 7.90 z 28.15 19.76 --------------------------------------------- success rate 68 % ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shooting Star 23 times : Since 195! --------------------------------------- profit lost zero 7.02 2.25 9.92 z 2.36 z 4.14 z 9.18 z 6.99 2.68 z 7.77 z 63.24 z 3.52 4.45 z z 4.81 7.36 z 4.48 z 1.61 z 7.06 3.11 z 2.56 z 26.56 19.68 11.34 2.40 ---------------------------- 47 success rate ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Falling Window 23 times : since 1953 come together, or during falling markets. --------------------------------------------------- Profit Lost 18.97 5.65 z 78 25.85 z z 60 17.63 6.92 2.83 z 3.39 z 6.12 z 6.66 z 4.63 z 1.66 z 46 1.74 z 7.55 4.80 12.43 5.01 1.62 z 116 z 2.81 z 4.47 ------------------- 47 % success rate ------------------------------------------------------------- Hanging Man 30 times : since 1957 1/ 50s was the play ground for this candle !!! 2/ sam old sam small dip then boom !!! 1996 it is a a hammer !!!not a Hang.Man --------------------------------------------------- Profit lost z 2.64 4.11 z 1.71 z 6.84 2.23 z 8.80 4.21 7.63 3.02 z 7.84 z 28.59 z 4.46 z 5.15 z 6.84 z 16.68 6.28 z 1.87 2.28 z .87 !!!!crash z 5.63 3.29 2.30 6.91 z 6.38 z 2.27 3.74 z 7.60 2.02 1.50 1.12 --------------------------------------------------- 50 % success rate
SP:SPX
by samitrading
6
SPX500 and a NICE BUY-CHANCE!Hey tradomaniacs, SPX500 could move up 👉 Todays sell-off pushed price down into a price-zone with possible bullish confluence. Primary Trendline pls horizontal support-zone can be a very attractive zone for buyers as soon as we see a confirmed rejection. In terms of correlations a perfect match with the GAP-CLOSE of DXY (US-DOLLAR). LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Trading2ez
6
SPX"s Japanese candlestick trading signals since inception 1957Hey Traders , what's up. I know that there is allot of data, i hate that as every one else does. But, if you want to keep it simple just study, analyze and write down the Red & Green boxes they should sum up most of the study. I have included all the data here . So feel free to redo, redistribute, reuse or shar it here or outside of tradingview with anyone even with out mentioning the source. from me to humanity whom are trading SPX : - ). Moreover, If anything that this data is telling us in a very short English terms "Do not chase tops on monthly candles !!! " . Also, some monthly candles could be treated as bullish data suggesting that !!! what's up with that!!! no Golden rule for these candles. wish you all the best. ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Bearish Spinning Top Black 21 times : since Dec, 1961 Just looks like Evening star !!! Reds i'll treat them like bearish signals just for the record : - ) -------------------------------------------------------- profit Opportunity cost zero 300% 54 zero 6.40 zero zero 340 % 17.33 zero zero 17.18 zero 7.95 zero 34.49 % zero 19.98% 22.11 zero 10.31 zero zero 5.56% 3.61 zero 37.19 zero zero 8.21 9.48 zero zero 4.92 8.70 zero zero 28.87% 28.23 zero *********************************************************************************** Long Upper Shadow 15 times: since Nov, 1950 --------------------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity Cost 31.80 zero zero 16.10 zero 6.28 zero 4.8 Zero 23.55 Zero 145 Zero 69.85 21.39 zero 28.49 zero 2.97 zero zero 22.31 zero 9.51 3.70 zero 2.30 zero zero 11.62 *********************************************************************** Hanging Man 8 times: Since Nov, 1951 ------------------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity Cost 18.62 Zero 2.11 Zero Zero 3.83 Zero 6.29 Zero 12.98 Zero 17.11 Zero 49.01 Zero 16.22 ********************************************************************** Engulfing 15 signals: since Feb, 1952 -------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity Cost Zero 23.33% Zero 17.77 13.47 zero 11.46 zero zero 13.36 4 zero zero 57 zero 27.77 zero 81.35 Zero 124.44 6.06 zero 20.76 Zero Zero 12.67 5.95 Zero Zero 14.01 ************************************************************* Marubozu Black 5 times ! : Since Apr, 1952 -------------------------------------------- profite opportunity cost zero 23.31 zero 62.06 8.11 zero zero 112 zero 15% ************************************************************ Tweezer Top 13 times : since April, 1956 ---------------------------------------------------- Profit Opportunity cost 12.36 zero 4.25 zero 3.81 zero zero 60.73 zero 34.73 zero 7.47 4.16 zero zero 14.45 zero 47.07 9.41 zero 15.14 zero 7.04 zero 12.38 zero ************************************************************* ******************************************************************************************************************************** 2/Bullish. Long Lower Shadow-Bull 27 times : since Jul,1950 ----------------------------------------------------- Profit Cost 37.20 8.53 8.28 49.59 3.38 22.42 20.42 zero 46.23 273.66 37.93 60.27 zero 8.84 40.87 zero zero 36.73 zero 33.39 3.72 19.43 3.83 6.62 6.29 14.01 4.61 25.32 18.08 2.53 8.62 44.87 ****************************************************** Marubozu White -Bull 26 times : Since Sep, 1950 -------------------------------------------------------- profit cost zero 4.60 21.45 12.15 71.55 36.09 2.3 4.15 46.07 19.25 5.86 9.08 4.01 21.27 3.85 zero 14.17 11.21 3.25 11.88 5.79 8.35 3.90 2.36 zero 4.92 3.74 2.45 3.36 ************************************************************ Spinning Top White19 times : since March 1950 Just looks like Evening star !!! Whites i'll treat them like Bullish signals just for the record : - ) --------------------------------------------------------- Profit opportunity cost zero 19% 14.20 zero 86.64 zero 29.22 zero 44.90 zero zero 31.81 8.06 zero zero 9.45 6.35 zero 17.18 zero 24.60 zero zero 4.01 10.78 zero zero 3.35 12.22 zero zero 4.94 zero 4.94 47.61 zero 13.65 zero -------------------------------------------- Summery: 63% bullish *********************************************************************************** Rising Window 21 times: Since May, 1950 -------------------------------------------------------- Profit Cost 2.51 8.04 11.22 6.11 1.85 zero 3.90 zero 8.29 12.83 13.72 26.85 3.85 3.85 zero 9.03 6.25 54.19 3.62 zero 4.28 zero 3.50 zero 11.18 ******************************************* Long Lower Shadow-Bull is actually a Doji 52-53-54- Or inverted hammer 63-86-88!!!! I might be wrong or tradingview is wrong or something else is wrong!!! **************************************************
SP:SPX
by samitrading
2
SPX 500 nosedive in the new year The stock market has been gunning for all-time highs despite the horrible economic news going around. Based on stimulus hopes and mass euphoria of the market reaching highs, with help from the fed, investors have just been buying at the highs and pushing it higher. However, I think all of that is quickly coming to an end. The market has been pushing higher with no real fundamentals to back it up and there is a lot of negative news looming over these markets. The new Covid-19 strain is quickly spreading throughout the U.S. now so there may be fear of new lockdowns, and Trump signed an executive order for the NYSE to delist some of the biggest Chinese telecom companies in the market. All of this news may trigger some major fears among investors to start taking massive profits and the market will definitely see a huge selloff because of that. Price action also tells the story of the nosedive. As you can see, the S&P has been moving in an ascending channel with a false breakout below on December 21st, which already indicates selling pressure. The market also closed the new year at the zone of resistance formed around 3758 and 3763. The market is showing significant rejection at that level, especially on the 1 hour time frame. You can also see a double top formation and this is further indication of a reversal. Many have been pointing to a glaring bearish RSI divergence forming and they are spot on with that analysis. The market should be seeing a huge correction and if it breaks past the strong support zone around 3641 and 3645 we could see the market bleed all the way to the 3500 levels. I'm currently in a sell position and I'll be targeting 3608. There are a lot of gaps to fill in this market and I believe they will be filled in the coming week.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StealPipsSal
10
SPX's Deviation from 200W MA since inception's day 1957-weeklyHey guys what's up This is a weekly study VS. daily i did last time. I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse or redistribute all my work to our trading view community or out side it. March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) ) Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with the best to my ability : -) wish you all the best. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summery 11 times : Green count . Above 50 54% of pullbacks single digits 46 % double digits correction very close margin to favor one over the other. All deviations above 50 : ----------------------------- Deviation Pullbacks/correction 54.84 13.08 57.25 7.17 61.99 22.39 59.53 13 61.78 7.35 60.42 34.52 54.78 8.77 55 9.83 crash came for less 57 7 58 10.59 56.33 4.62 ****************************************************** Summery 11 times : Blue count. 40-40.99 46 % single digits pullbacks 54 % double digits corrections All Deviation 40-49.99 : ------------------------------------ 47.29 49.94 2000 crash 46.11 10.05 48.98 10.29 43.78 5.96 41.79 10.03 46.15 9.12 46.07 5.32 47.50 21.46 crash of 1957 43 3.52 43 6.82 43 5.9 ******************************************************** Summery 21 times : Orange count 30-30.99 76 % single digits pullbacks & 24 double digits corrections - pullback. That’s a huge jump from the 40s. All deviation 30-30.99 : ------------------------------------------- 30.38 10.55 32.61 11.84 33.61 5.16 33.27 9.84 34.60 4.35 34.63 6.67 34.73 6.03 30.65 4.82 31.37 4.81 31.37 4.81 32.83 7.52 37.74 10.90 39.74 5.33 33.19 4.11 34.17 5.58 30.23 8.48 37.05 7.53 33.05 14.71 37.21 26.44 33.38 7.79 30.20 6.10 ************************************************************* Summery 47 times : Dark Green count 20.20.99 71 % single digits Pullbacks 29 % double digits corrections All deviation 20-20.99 27 8.9 20.46 8.27 29.12 35.52 covid crash 21 5.46 22.86 6.80 22.58 7.63 27.76 20.21 24.38 3.56 27.73 6.82 25 Nothing happened 20 2.95 20 2.99 21.16 14.37 within a pullback 29.64 15.09 27.54 8.90 25.59 10.94 24.34 57.72 2007 crash 25.16 11.86 23.05 6.84 21.72 8.08 20.55 9.73 22.43 5.36 21.76 4.80 20.97 3.43 21.08 6.67 27.70 6.83 25.41 6.60 25.29 5.59 25.16 20.33 28.12 11.30 23.19 9.24 27.62 4.03 23.50 8.98 25 49.95 crash of 1973 20.25 37.36 crash of 1969 23.90 23.70 crash of 1966 24.20 4.39 24.97 10.94 N.h 24.35 3.33 N.h 24.17 4.78 25 4.19 23.51 4.47 27.54 29.27 crassh of 1962 25.19 3.90 27.83 14.06 25 3.95 24 4.39 *********************************************************** Summery 25 times : Purple count 10-19.99 72 % signal digits Pullbacks 28 % double digits. All deviations 10-10.99 19 1.74 18 1.94 16.5 5 14.64 6.08 15.93 4 17.04 21.58 17.39 6.22 15.65 7.30 14.88 4.45 14 7.27 19.93 21 12.85 11.68 14.147 15.12 10 8.10 14.89 20.45 17 5.45 12.33 15.39 16.11 7.60 11.94 11.36 14.29 8.36 13.64 4.76 13.62 8.43 18.89 7.58 15.31 5.19 19 4.6 ********************************************************************* Deviation below 10 % of spx: Very shocking results Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Long Long Long Long Long Long Long Long The safest area to go long with every thing else is being absolute !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Deviation pullback 9.60 4.60 ********************************************************************** All acceptable pullbacks happened above 10 % of SPX's 200W MA !!! very safe zone to be long is when deviation is 9.99 and under . Most important discovery of this study of this indicator with every thing else being absolute !!! ********************************************************************************** Deviation Below 200W MA: 49-37 Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy and Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold All Deviation below 200W MA ----------------------------------- 16.90 7.04 49.44 37.98 10.64 8.03 5.87 4.12 6.15 38.94 5.55 26.75 10.05 13.92 3.35 ************************************************ Summery of all summaries : ( Keep this handy close by for your swings : -) --------------------------------------------- Deviation Singal.D Double.D 50 + 54 46 40-49.99 46 54 30-30.99 76 24 20-29.99 71 29 10-19.99 72 25 Below 10 4.6 Zero ------------------------------------------------ Hope this would be like a Guide Book for this weekly indicator. Keep the summaries close by for your trading . wish you all the best.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
SPX's Deviation from 200D MA since inception's day 1957Hey guys what's up I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse of redistribute all my work to our trading view community or out side it. March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) ) Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with most to my ability : -) ************************************* SUMMERY: (RED #s) During each new cycle we usually get the higher & highest numbers. the more we go into the cycle the more the deviations get lower. Moreover, we do get allot of NOT worthy to mention pullbacks even though we have higher number of deviation !!! . --------------So, no GOLDEN RULE here at all.--------------- wish you all the best. ************************************************************** SUMMERY: (BLUE #s) Deviation below 200d MA is not that common on a daily chart, and i assume it would be more rare on a weekly chart. (5 r single digits-4r20s—9 r teens-1is30s-2r40s- 1is50( Most extremes since inception r (54-47-46-32) ------------"40 % 10-19"/"22% below 10"/"8% 20s"--------- BUY BUY BUY BBUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY -----------WHEN YOU SEE THOSE "3" EXTREEMS.------------- Deviation below 200d MA. -8 -25.37 -6.08 -19.91 - 7.41 -32.88 -9.94 -46.18 -15.63 -22.66 -11.51 -11.40 -27.48 -14.60 -12.49 -47.69 2000 -54.77 2007 -16.48 -9 % -12.21 % -15.13 -27.81 covid-19 *************************************************************************** SUMMERY: (GREEN #s) Some of the biggest corrections/crashes/crisis came from small percentages of deviation from SPX's price !!! That's a key note to be observed closely. In Contrary to the general view that the more we go the more likely we have a stronger crash ---------- DATA says this is WRONG!!!--------------------- Since the inception of Standard & Poor's 500 : -------------------------------------------------------- 11.79 Covid -19 crash 6.4 % 2018 correction 3.45 % 2015 correction 12.21 % 2011 6.95 % 2007 crisis 6.11 % 2000 crisis 14.95 % 1999 correction 17 % 1998 correction 5.68 % 1994 10 % pullback 7.20 % 1990 correction 20 % 17.92 % 1987 crisis 20 1980 correction 13 % 1980 correction 8 % 1976 big Correction 9.97 % 1973 big crash 11.85 % 1968 big correction 5.96 % 1966 big correction 8.47 % 1962 big correction 8.62 1959 big correction ----------------------------- we have a range of 20%- 3.45 % ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Summery : (Orange) the largest 15 crashes in the history of SPX since inception has no relation what so ever. 53 % of corrections came from double digits % deviation!!! 47% of correction came from single digit deviations The largest crashes since 1957 (inception): ---------------------------------------------------- 11.79 35.27 covid-19 crash 6.45 20.23 12.21 21.59 6.95 57 2007 crash 13.18 50 2000 crash 14.69 22.52 7.2 20.32 17.92 36 20.39 28.08 13.76 21.58 8.02 20 9.97 52.08 big crash 73 11.85 37.12 big crash 1969 5.96 23.69 big crash 1966 8.74 29.26 1962 big crash ------------- So it is 50-50 chance !!!!!---------------- ********************************************************************** All Deviation above 20 + except for few where at the beginning of new cycle. In another word they came all after big crashes/corrections. Therefore getting these high numbers of deviation is confirming YES confirming that we are beginning a new cycle.: 18 % of these double digits pullbacks. 82 % of these are a single digit pullback. After March's low we r getting high #s(new Cycle)!! All Deviation above 20 + ----------------------------------- 20.63 6.55 Beg. 20.81 5.57 Beg. 21.22 7.18 20.49 4 N.wm Beg. 1982 20.63 3.27 beg. 1982 20.85 6.24 Beg. 1982 23.78 9.03 Beg. 1982 20.39 28.08 21.23 15.54 Beg. 23.90 5.52 Beg. 20.15 4.69 Beg ******************************************************************* Summery: All deviations between 15-19.99 20 % of these we get a double digit pullback 80 % is a shocking single digits pullback !!!!! All deviation between 15-19.99 -------------------------------------- 16.17 10.37 16.54 7.17 17.11 5.07 N.WM 16 13.07 19.76 6.49 16.53 10.29 15 6.03 15.97 6.43 15.46 3.5 N.WM 16.82 3.47 N.WM 17.92 36 19 9.33 16.23 9.12 18.87 4.86 19.77 5.05 16.78 7.63 18.14 7.79 18.31 15.47 Beg. 19.69 3.60 Beg. ***************************************************************** Summery: All deviation between 10-14.99 36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks up to 64 % of the time single digits pullbacks. Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!! All deviation between 10-14.99 Deviation pullbacks 13.42 8.9 11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27 13.91 11.84 13.81 7.58 12.24 10.96 12.21 21.59 12.35 17.16 14.70 9.26 11.28 8.55 Beg. 14.14 5.35 Beg. 13.18 2000 crash 14.13 13.13 14.69 22.52 11.76 7.39 13.95 5.96 N.WM 10.79 11.04 12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg. 13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg. 14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg. 14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg. 13.89 9.26 10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg. 10.93 10.14 10.69 8.28 10.14 3.18 N.wm 12.90 4.03 N.wm 13.76 21.58 13.79 15.15 10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W 11.85 37.12 big crash 1969 13.87 8.36 Beg. 12.39 5.06 Beg. 11.83 4.41 Beg. 13.86 4.42 Beg. 14.97 3.36 Beg. 10.82 1.86 Beg. Summery: 36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks up to 64 % of the time single digists pullbacks.Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!! *********************************************************************** ************************************************************************************************************************ Summery: All Deviations between 5-9.99. 28 % of them double digits pullbacks 72% single digits pullbacks. Either, my 42 sample is not enough and in this area i am wrong, or things get missy around these numbers !!!!!!! All Deviations between 5-9.99 Deviation pullbacks 6.94 6.94 8.89 6.87 6.75 7.64 6.45 20.23 8.92 8.87 6.32 4.76 6.99 5.16 6.78 9.88 9.23 6.12 9.44 8.90 6.95 2007 crash 7.67 12 9.02 6.69 5.75 8.09 6.95 7.32 9.89 10.35 5.68 9.70 7.7 5.36 9.22 6.75 7.2 20.32 8.74 11.30 7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg. 8.46 14.68 9.69 11.73 9.06 4.05 8. 9.97 52.08 big crash 73 8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 02 20 8.89 8.50 9.72 4.66 5.96 23.69 big crash 1966 6.32 4.41 6.16 10.94 6.37 4.87 8.90 4.19 8.69 4.47 8.98 2.83 N.wm 8.40 7.59 8.74 29.26 big crash 62 8.69 3.89 8.62 9.32 ************************************************************************ Summery: All deviation below 5 % off 200D MA is just 50 % double digits % 50 % single digits pullbacks. All deviation below 5 : 2.66 14.50 3.45 12.28 4.94 6.16 3.7 6.71 4.83 3.96 4.65 6.75 4.62 11.35 4.16 13.63 big crash *********************************************************************** ****************************************** All raw data Total of most extended deviation since the inception of S&P 500 in 1957 : ---------------------------------------- Deviation----pullback/corrections ????????????????????????????????? 13.42 8.9 16.17 10.37 11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27 6.94 6.94 8.89 6.87 6.75 7.64 6.45 20.23 8.92 8.87 13.91 11.84 6.32 4.76 2.66 14.50 3.45 12.28 6.99 5.16 6.78 9.88 9.23 6.12 13.81 7.58 9.44 8.90 12.24 10.96 12.21 21.59 12.35 17.16 14.70 9.26 20.63 6.55 20.81 5.57 6.95 2007 crash 7.67 12 9.02 6.69 5.75 8.09 4.94 6.16 6.95 7.32 11.28 8.55 Beg. 14.14 5.35 Beg. 6 2000 crash 13.18 2000 crash 9.89 10.35 14.13 13.13 16.54 7.17 14.69 22.52 17.11 5.07 N.WM 11.76 7.39 16 13.07 19.76 6.49 16.53 10.29 13.95 5.96 N.WM 10.79 11.04 15 6.03 12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg. 13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg. 14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg. 5.68 9.70 7.7 5.36 3.7 6.71 4.83 3.96 9.22 6.75 4.65 6.75 14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg. 15.97 6.43 N.WM Beg. 7.2 20.32 8.74 11.30 13.89 9.26 15.46 3.5 N.WM 16.82 3.47 N.WM 10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg. 7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg. 17.92 36 19 9.33 10.93 10.14 16.23 9.12 18.87 4.86 19.77 5.05 21.22 7.18 12.48 5.58 10.69 8.28 11.21 canceled this one too close 10.14 3.18 N.wm 12.90 4.03 N.wm 8.46 14.68 16.78 7.63 20.49 4 N.wm Beg. 20.63 3.27 beg. 20.85 6.24 Beg. 23.78 9.03 Beg. 16.05 canceled with in a crash 20.39 28.08 18.14 7.79 13.76 21.58 9.69 11.73 9.06 4.05 13.79 15.15 4.9 canceled within a crash 8.02 20 10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W 21.23 15.54 Beg. 23.90 5.52 Beg. 9.97 52.08 big crash 73 8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 N.W 18.31 15.47 Beg. 19.69 3.60 Beg. 20.15 4.69 Beg. 11.85 37.12 big crash 1969 4.62 11.35 8.89 8.50 9.72 4.66 13.87 8.36 Beg. 5.96 23.69 big crash 1966 6.32 4.41 6.16 10.94 6.37 4.87 8.90 4.19 8.69 4.47 8.98 2.83 N.wm 8.40 7.59 12.39 5.06 Beg. 11.83 4.41 Beg. 8.74 29.26 62 big crash 8.69 3.89 13.86 4.42 Beg. 14.97 3.36 Beg. 10.82 1.86 Beg. 4.16 13.63 big crash 8.62 9.32 15 Beg. 15 Beg. 15 Beg.
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by samitrading
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SPX500 could PUMP again!Hey tradomaniacs, After a re-test of the current trendline and key-support-zone we could see another bounce upwards in order to complete the impulse-wave-pattern. Price-Action showing demand at this zone and so higher bullish confluence. A pump today could be important for pairs such as NZD/USD, AUD/CHF and NZD/JPY to break their key-resistance-levels. Since price and spread can vary for this assets I don`t make an call with exact Entries. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
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