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40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX - Updated 011423Leading up to the December Inflation CPI Report that was released this last week (Thursday), markets (at a macro level) have been rallying into this last Friday — which also was coincidently the start of earnings season as banks such as J.P. Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), & others. Now that the Inflation (CPI) Report is out of the way & earnings season is full steam ahead, markets look to the next big event(s) which include the Federal Reserve February Interest Rate Decision coming our way on February 1st, 2023. That said, here's what is happening in the charts with the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! as it relates to our "40-Bar Cycle" 📊: 📉 *CHART NOTES* 📈 As I mentioned above, we did break out of the sloppy trading/consolidation range that the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! was kept in throughout the holidays, & into the new year. Now that we've broken out of that & reached back above the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50 = Red Line) on the daily chart, SPY is sitting just below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA200 = Green Line). Also note that we did close above the SMA200 ($397.21) to finish up the week at ($398.50) on SPY. Now that we are above this key level (on a daily close), question is will we re-test this level & drift higher into the February Federal Reserve Meeting? OR, are markets setting up for a further (or short-term) pull-back using the timing & levels included in the "40-Bar Cycle" 📊 ? Keep in mind too that we did get a positive MACD crossover (buy signal) on the daily chart, as featured below. However, looking at the charts (including 4-hour MACD) I would conclude that this is likely an invalid buy signal — based in-part on other factors including January Options Expiration (OpEx) next week, 'VIX Compression', & also Federal Reserve 'Net Liquidity', which is still "risk-off" on a macro level as the Federal Reserve looks to keep a lid on asset prices, & of course Inflation (CPI). Chart #1-2: SPY Consolidation Breakout (Daily, w/ & w/o Falling Wedge Pattern) Chart #3: SPY Consolidation Breakout (4-Hour) Chart #4: SPY Consolidation Breakout (1-Hour) Chart #5: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (Daily, note that we are now clearly above the 50SMA are converging on major resistance of the 2022 downtrend & the 200SMA ). Chart #6: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (4-Hour, note the 50SMA did not cross below the 200SMA) Chart #7: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (1-Hour, note the 50SMA vs. 200SMA buy-signal & upward regression channel) What are your predictions for the rest of January 23'? Camp A: We are short-term overbought & a pull-back is in order, before we re-test & break out of this $380-390-400 range on the back of better than expected earnings, less than hawkish Federal Reserve, & more "resilient" macro data. Camp B: We may continue to short-term rally, however market liquidity is still too strong & the Federal Reserve is likely to continue with .25% — in addition to maintaining their hawkish tone so that excess market liquidity does not run away from them with higher asset prices. Macro data will continue to be mixed, if not trend-downward, & earnings will start to come in softer than people expect as forward outlooks raise the red flags for investors. Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPY
by kylemusserco
2
SPX - We are still within the range!SPX - We are still within the range! SPX - For most indices we've had bullish momentum especially in Europe side cac, ftse, dax amazing moves but we are still struggling when it comes to US Indices. We've had great bullish momentum at the end of the week now let's not get too excited we are still within the ranges things to keep in mind this week going forward CPI, Q4 earnings, Unemployment claims coming out of US. Key tip: Ignore the noise and focus on the chart in front of you. Everyone has opinions, they'll even comment on your career choice but most importantly only YOU can learn and earn by the execution of your own trades. A break to either direction. Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
4
SPX Broke bullish Now What?In the last SPX post, I started to doubt my bearish scenario of the index, by saying that the price looks bullish on the short term. Now that we've seen a short term pump to the resistance, I wanted to give an update. Right now, the upper level of the resistance zone has been touched. This begs the question: Are we going to see a break of this resistance zone. If that happens, I find it extremely likely that the resistance of the channel will break aswell. However, since we're at a resistance level, we have to be cautious about the following events. Right now i'll switch from bullish to neutral, because I want to see whats going to happen next.
SP:SPX
by FetchTeam
1
SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 2.93% With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 65th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: *For calculations, I am using the data since 2022* Bullish: 2.64% movement Bearish: 2.47% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 4025 BOT: 3800 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 79.22% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high(already done) 26.76% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Daily timeframe indicates 53.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Weekly timeframe indicates 13.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Monthly timeframe indicates -13.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
The bullish scenario for SPXIn my last analysis, I presented a bearish scenario for the SPX. I was convinced that the index would drop because of the following reasons: 1: The price is falling within an hugh falling channel. 2: In that channel, the price recently made an rising wedge, which broke bearish, making it likely that the price will continue to fall down. 3: SPX broke the resistance zone, which was support at that time. We did see the falling down part. However, the price seems to be finding support at the mid level of the rising wedge. This begs the question: "Is the price actually bearish?" At least on the short term it seems like it isnt. I am intereseted to see wether the SPX can rise above the resistance zone, while breaking the resistance of the channel. For now, i'll stay short term bullish with a longer term bias to lower prices.
SP:SPX
by FetchTeam
SPX January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023 SPX January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023 Currently the IV for SPX is at 6.25%, down from 6.67% last month. From the volatility current percentile we are located on 58th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement: Bullish : 6.544% Bearish : 6.106% With this in mind we have currently 81.1% that the market is going to stay within the next channel TOP Limit: 4154 BOT Limit: 3635 If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a : 38.18% to hit the previous monthly high 56.52% to hit the previous monthly low Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently ( going from -100 to +100) Weekly Timeframe : -26.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH Monthly Timeframe : -13.33% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
S&P 500 Big Picture Update - Bullish ScenarioThe year 2022 is finally over, the markets still do not look good, but there is already hope for a further upward trend. Therefore, we would like to address such a possible scenario. The mood in the economy is still bad, many companies now have to bear the high cost of capital and energy, and many companies are still highly overvalued. Nonetheless, there is a possibility of an upward trend, according to Structure - UPPER: (12345) - (ABC) - (12345) - sub waves: (12345 - ABC - 12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345 - ABC - 12345) Current situation If this scenario is true, we would be in the superior ABC and now start the last upward movement. Thus, the wave (ABC) would be completed. This scenario would be confirmed if we see a strong and clear upward movement in the next days/weeks. If wave C is reached, a TOP should form, which would then initiate the trend reversal and thus another overarching downtrend. Strongly changing market . The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. A lot of economic news is affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace, and most investors are still afraid of losing money. Therefore, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will publish a bullish scenario in the next few days.
SP:SPXLong
by Consyder
3
S&P 500 Big Picture Update - Bearish ScenarioMany investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend. The economic sentiment is still bearish , many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued. Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur, the Double ZigZag . Structure of a Double ZigZag - Superior: (W) - (X) - (Y) - Subordinate: (ABC) - (ABC) - (ABC) - Subwaves: (12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345) Current situation If this scenario is correct, we would be in the last sub-wave ABC and now see the last downward movement as sub-wave 12345. This would complete the last subordinate (ABC) wave. This scenario would be confirmed if in the next few days/weeks the SPX initiates a trend reversal to the downside. We already see a weaker SPX struggling to pump above the yellow highlighted resistance. Even if we could make it above this, it would have to be retested first and thus hold above resistance. We now expect the SPX to either make another small breakout to the upside before correcting back down, or for the SPX to correct right away. Strongly changing market The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. Many economic news are affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace and most investors are still afraid to lose money. Thus, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will post a bullish scenario in the next few days.
SP:SPXShort
by Consyder
1
S&P500 Analysis 29.12.2022Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
OANDA:SPX500USD
by basictradingtv
20
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 12/21 Next Support Level - Confirmed In our trading plans published on Monday, 12/19, we stated: "...the index is now testing the next key support level around the 3825-3835 range. Our models are indicating a range-bound trading while the index is trading within the broader 3810-3830 range on a daily close basis. If you are short, you might want to take profits on a break out of this range. If you are itching to go long, you might want to wait until the range is broken out of to the upside". That support level is confirmed as held by our models, and if you followed the plans you should be long going into the open today. If not, you might want to wait to go long as our models indicate range-bound trading while the index is below 3866. If you are short, you might want to take profits and go flat. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models closed out the short from Thursday, 12/15 (opened at 3893.51) yesterday with a profit of 78.01 index points and are currently flat. Models indicate staying flat until otherwise indicated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 12/21: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3838, 3848, or 3866 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3860, 3843, or 3830 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a break below 3863 or 3834, and short exits on a break above 3820. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:40 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)   IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES - READ CAREFULLY: (i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned. (ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article. (iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions. (iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. (v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided. (vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #rates #nfp #earnings #earningsseason #midterms #elections #cpi #fedpivot #shortsqueeze
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
SPX On Its Way To Make A Higher Low?!The SPX is chilling in its falling channel, which at this point is still bearish. However, the last low was formed on a bullish divergence on the weekly rsi. As we can see on this chart, using Fetch Trends, an indicator made by me, we can also see that by the change of colors that the downtrend is becoming weak! This is good news, because if the trend continues, we can expect a higher low, which would be the first one since september 2021. Holding the 3550-3650 support zone would be extremely bullish in that case, making it likely that the SPX made its low in October. W're not there yet so its to soon to celebrate, however, the slowing down of the downtrend is indeed a fact. In conclusion: for now we have to stay bearish, but we may be looking at a possible light at the end of the tunnel.
SP:SPXShort
by FetchTeam
3
SPX quick weekend updateIm on the road all day today, my connection flight is being delayed over 4hrs now. Had no time do a research, so can be wrong or can be right:) First of all Fri low came exactly on CPI gap open! I did tweet about it on Fri that I expected that number to be at least good for a bounce. It just stopped there. Closing above afternoon highs is usually a bullish sign going into Monday. But making new lows on Fri means that more weakens to come next week, which I do expect to happen with a low to come on the 22nd. 21st is a winter solstice, can mark a low or a high, I expect a low in 3750SPX zone. My best thinking is that we either make a low to 3808-12SPX tomorrow or just go up from the open to 3950-60SPX high but Tuesday am. There is also a resistance at 3900-11SPX and 3933SPX. If we do see 3808SPX tested in am, I will be only long for a Tuesday high, then short for the 22nd low. Timing is everything in out business, so that would be my plan for tomorrow's trading. Hope I get home at least not as late. BTW there will be a big announcement tomorrow, stay tuned! Have a profitable week!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets. Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼‍♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly". Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for SPY ES1! SPX, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $390 SPY / $3,900 ES1! SPX, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking? SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
S&P 500 Analysis and Trade IdeaInteresting. Loads of news coming! CPI, FOMC, and interest rate decisions for CHF, GBP and EUR. I will wait until I see how the CPI data turns out before jumping in this market for trades.. especially for any buys. I do, however, see that *support * differently... as I am tentatively bearish in this market. D1: 1 - A bearish break of of Swing structure. Confirms the market is bearish until the high is taken out. 2 - The return to the impulsing order block. This is the expected pullback correction after a BOS. This D1 supply zone was in the premium of the trading range, imbalanced and unmitigated, and price reacted to it perfectly (see last weeks Sunday livestream). It also broke the daily uptrend line. 3* - This is no doubt going to look to some as price finding support for a move up. But it is sell side liquidity, looking thru the lens of SMC. I expect those lows to be swept, as there are SLs there for the traders that took longs from those levels. 4 - This is a well placed imbalance/fair value gap that looks to be filled ... potentially... as price moves to mitigate the demand zone that formed that gap. 5 - This demand zone has potential to hold price once mitigated. So any shorts taken from up higher into it should TP in this area, imo. Personally, I will be looking for confirmations to take a long from here. We'll see how price reacts to this poi firs, though. If you like this analysis and would like to see more, give this post a BOOST with thumbs up! Like & Subscribe is the best thank you in the world! Trade safely.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by RT_Money
1
SPX so far so good from yesterday's updateI was sleeping in today after my BD celebration yesterday and what a present I got:) The only issue is I didnt short 2am last night as was looking to do it and tweeted about it! Good I got some of those lotto puts (tweeted yesterday as well) We got a gap down I was looking for, hope people are not trapped long since yesterday as I warned so many times as well as tweeted! Now the question if SPX gets below 3832-31, then it should close at the lows and the next support will be at 3808 (target I was looking for for last several days) Usually these types of moves are ending up with closing at the lows, so if we get a bounce, I will short it to exit either tomorrow am or AHs
SP:SPX
by RealTima
9