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Spx500index

Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELYI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY THREE: Current position is Primary wave 4 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 3 is on a faster path while the wave structure is similar to Theory 2. The preliminary bear market bottom would be in somewhere between Election Day 2024 and March 2025. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Primary wave 4 (SKY BLUE). It appears Intermediate wave A (PINK) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Intermediate wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Intermediate wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. Early models have Primary wave 4 lasting around 28 days, we are 9 days into it so far. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: This model appears to be riding election cycles. After Primary wave 4 ends, the market will swoon down again for a few more months with the bottom occurring around October/November this year. The 6-12 months afterward would move up before the final leg down takes the market to around 2400. The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. A 2-4 year correction makes more sense for this micro wave set we are likely in. CONS: Negatives are not glaring with this model at this time.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Finally time to buy the dip...in 2 weeksI warned of this bull trap and we should now be in the final leg down. Today’s close kissed the top of the trend channel as it remained in the projected zone discussed in my recent analysis. The market could open up tomorrow, but most likely should not. Today’s highs should not get tested for at least a few more weeks. Next stop is the basement of this bear market. To recap, all five purple boxes were general estimates of where each wave should end IF Primary C were to last 37-46 days while it drops 863.93-1117.41. So far, the end of waves can be identified in each box. If the prior analysis is accurate we should bottom no later than June 3rd. The larger green box was the estimated market bottom based on relationships between Cycle waves 1 and this wave 2 as well as Primary waves A and B in relation to this wave C. The better news is that the intermediate wave data not only fit in the larger box, it narrowed the target zone. I have a final few data points that could further narrow the target bottoms. I calculate the wave extensions which determines the percent that wave 5 moves in relation to wave 3 while using the same starting point which was the end of wave 2 (beginning of wave 3). Considering all intermediate wave 5 data, the first quartile of data states that 75% of all intermediate wave 5s move at least 110.98% of wave 3’s movement. The 50% of all intermediate wave 5s move 127.12%, while 25% of all data extends 147.53%. Additionally, the average move is 136%. All of these levels are identified on the chart with the light blue lines. I further studied intermediate wave 5s inside of Primary C waves. These levels utilize the green lines on the chart. This data has 75% of the intermediate wave 5s moving 110.98%, 50% moving 120.85%, 25% moving 133.13%. The average move is 123.53%. Nearly all of these data points land in the large green and small purple target boxes previously mentioned. All told my target bottoms appear valid. Time will tell, but we are looking at another rough drop (around 10%) in about 2 weeks. I still think an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the only thing to reverse markets quickly. That war will likely only come to an end if something happens to Putin.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Now its Easter Inflation Rally ModeINTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 It is likely we have ended this wave although technically the index could still go lower for one more day. This analysis is based on the assumption we have ended wave 1 on April 11 as originally forecasted. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 With wave 1 lasting only 9 days, I am expecting wave 2 to last 3-4. Most of the models agree at 4 days. Day 4 would be the Monday after Easter. My gut is leaning toward 3 days as there is a market holiday on Friday. It is most likely there will be lighter trading or jubilation at the start of earnings season that is dashed quickly (next week) by a rockier short-term inflation drag on future outlooks. Plus 3 days away from the markets can lead to longer uncertainty (Russia, Middle Eastern conflicts, oil, etc.). We do not have many price targets, but should see a decent rally for this holiday shortened week. It is likely the inflation numbers are swallowed better than expected starting tomorrow. We are looking at a 2.5% rally with potential tops above 4500. Historically wave 2’s ending in 32C2 retrace 58-70% (4522.84-4570.16) of wave 1’s movement. History says this is possible, but my more conservative target is 38-50% (4495-4522). This movement will also contain an ABC upward pattern, where wave B is downward. All price targets are: 4491.75 which is 36.42% retracement of Intermediate Wave 1 as ended on April 11 4496.95 ----------- 38.69% 4520.05 ----------- 48.78% 4525.52 ----------- 51.17% 4541.43 ----------- 58.12% 4551.46 ----------- 62.50% 4570.16 ----------- 70.67% 4585.15 ----------- 77.22% 4601.47 ----------- 84.35% 4614.27 ----------- 89.94% INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 is where we am forecasting the most significant downward movement still. This could be Russia related, but it will also occur during the bulk of earnings season. Our guess is the economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, transportation costs, along with the Fed’s pace and rate of rate increases will take center stage during earning calls. This outlook may look bleak in the near-term, but we continue to anticipate the market to find its bottom before the end of the summer and as early as mid-May. We will have Intermediate wave 3 forecasts once we appear to finish wave 2 (with the first projections this weekend). Feel free to follow us for more historical statistics and projections!
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
SPX's Head & Shoulder Pattern 101 !!!what Is a Head and Shoulders Pattern? A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, where the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end. KEY TAKEAWAYS A head and shoulders pattern is a technical indicator with a chart pattern of three peaks, where the outer two are close in height and the middle is the highest. A head and shoulders pattern—considered one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns—is a chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
SP:SPX
by samitrading
25
SPX. Core PCE@3.6 & PCE Index @4.3 "Tapering" is coming NovemberPersonal income rose by 0.2% in August following July's 1.1% gain, as expected in a survey conducted by Bloomberg. Personal consumption expenditures were rose 0.8%, slightly ahead of the 0.7% increase expected after a 0.1% decline in July. After adjustment for inflation, real PCE rose by 0.4%, as expected, after a 0.5% decrease in July. The PCE price index rose by 0.4%, above the 0.3% gain expected, lifting the year-over-year rate to 4.3% from 4.2% in July. The price index rose by 0.4% month-over-month in July. The core PCE price index increased by 0.3%, ahead of the 0.2% increase expected and following a 0.3% gain in July. The year-over-year rate held steady at 3.6%, still well ahead of the Federal Reserve's 2% goal. Price: , Change: , Percent Change:
SP:SPX
by samitrading
SPX500 Within a Channel - 2 Possible LongsSPX500 Long Setup Idea Entry Levels: 1) $3,785.7 2) $3,764.8 TP & RR: $3,870.7 (4.89 and 5.71) Stop Loss Levels: 1) $3,768.3 2) $3,746.1 REASONS FOR THE TRADE SPX500 may be due for a small correction and I want to catch the indicated level, which is a flip from resistance to support. I believe it should hold well, but what I am really looking for is a quick, clean wick to the entry or worst-case scenario a close and then a quick trend up. If the price closes under that level, then the trade will be invalidated and I will be looking to open the second long order with an even better Risk : Reward. I will also be looking at the Trend Volume RSI Analysis and what it prints in terms of trend and divergences.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Quant_
Megaphone - broad instabilityThis megaphone pattern, which is also called a broadening formation, indicates broad instability in the American stock market due to the expanding trading range. Broadening tops appear more on tops than on bottoms and usually have bearish implications. Price completed 1-5 Elliott waves sequence and now we are in Elliott correction phase. Meaty bearish candles from institutional level indicate major institutions are entering into shorts. How far price will drop - God knows. Classic broadening top projection sends us to unclosed level, which makes sense. For educational purposes only.
SP:SPXShort
by ICFX
3