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Spx500long

Very important place to hold, I think it wontSo close to new lows. DOW already made one last Fri. SPX to make today or tomorrow imo. Too many stops below that low Jun low, Im sure algos will shave those, before turn. Fear and Greed is at Extreme fear levels, VIX is above 31-32, perfect bottoming indicators to me Below the support line (3662-58) we will see 3636-20 and my ideal target 3588 Im not going long till tomorrow BTW ES already broken support and last night low and just needs a continuation
SP:SPX
by RealTima
23
SPX pathwayThis update works only if we wont flash crash tomorrow from the open or even pre-market. Next week is a directional change week! If we hold 3636-40 on closing level it will be quite bullish imo. But I still think we will deep down to 3588SPX before it finds a good bottom. Timing is limited for Mon/Tuesday am only, so tomorrow's action is very important. I think we bottom either tomorrow or Tuesday. Regardless of that low Im going to watch Tuesday higher daily close to mark temp bottom. Ideally we see 3960SPX on the move up by early Oct. But it can be limited to 3830SPX Going to start buying tomorrow if we hit 3636-40SPX and add at 3588SPX. My pathway is this: - bottom on Tuesday - up move into 3rd/4th - down into Oct 7th Dont get trapped with shorts next 2 days!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
29
Bear Market Rally TeeteringMarket participants are wondering right now if we are merely in a bear market rally or if this is the beginning of a new long-term bull run. I thought I would write a post to share my thoughts. First, the chart above: This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with Fibonacci levels applied. I drew Fibonacci levels from the January high to the June low to identify areas where the price of SPY may be resisted or reverse back downward. The chart is adjusted for dividends and is based on a log scale. I also placed arrows where Fibonacci levels may have acted either as support (up arrows) or resistance (down arrows). While anything can happen and it would be foolish to make a call for certain, I do genuinely believe the following: Regardless of how high the S&P 500 rallies, at some point in the future we will likely see the June bottom again. This is because the June bottom is far more important than most people realize, as I will explain below. Back on June 17th, the exact day of the bottom, I noted that SPY was likely bottoming. My charting analysis told me we were likely in the lower wick formation of the monthly candle at the time, so I knew a bottom was imminent. See the below post. In early July, I also explained that the bottom was significant. See the below post. We are currently sitting on a major level in stock market history. See the below chart. The chart above is a yearly chart of the entire 150 years of SPX price data that Trading View provides. When one analyzes the chart as if it were a shorter timeframe chart, one will see that we are teetering right on the third Fibonacci extension of the Great Depression high. That is to say, when one draws Fibonacci lines from the lowest price ever for the SPX up to the Great Depression peak and then applies Fibonacci extensions, one will see that the June bottom was precisely on the third extension of the Great Depression. (Some call it a Fibonacci extension, some refer to it as a Fibonacci Spiral, and others refer to it as a Golden Spiral. Regardless, it is a very important level.) For more information about the math and theory behind it, you check out this Wikipedia article on the Golden Spiral: en.wikipedia.org These spirals occur at points in time when markets can undergo the most dramatic declines. This occurs mathematically in the form of price unraveling to a previous Fibonacci level. In fact, very few people know that Black Monday (the 1987 Stock Market crash) occurred at the second extension of the Great Depression peak. Computers and smart money were detecting this Fibonacci level and likely led the initial phase of the sell-off, which spiraled into a panic sell-off. The above monthly chart from 1987 shows that price tried to surpass the second Fibonacci extension but failed to close above it and was repelled back down. Fast forward to the present time, the Fed Reserve's limitless quantitative easing propelled us abruptly above the third Fibonacci extension in the beginning of 2021. This important Fibonacci level actually held as support for both the 2021 low and the 2022 low (so far). See the charts below which show that the June bottom landed precisely on the 3rd Fibonacci extension. On a yearly chart, (although the yearly candle has not been completed yet), you can see that we are sitting precariously on the 3rd Fibonacci extension with a bearish hammer. This is quite concerning because it is occurring while we are on the verge of a significant recession. While I cannot explain all the reasons why I believe a significant recession is underway in this post, I have links to my prior posts explaining all the chart findings that lead me to this conclusion. You can refer to these links below. I find it concerning that so many market participants are buying into a rally while the yield curve is so inverted. Indeed, the yield curve is the most inverted it has ever been since data became available in the 1980s (as measured by a 10Y/2Y ratio). See my post below. Here's why I believe this rally is occurring. This rally was caused by two main types of market participants: Marginally informed market participants who think that inflation has peaked. While inflation very likely did peak locally, there are worrying charts that suggest elevated inflation will be persistent. Some commodities have broken out on their yearly charts, which can provide a tailwind for higher prices for years to come. So far there is no evidence in the charts that inflation is dropping precipitously enough to warrant a sudden pivot to easing by the Fed. I believe these marginally informed market participants may get whipsawed if inflation surprises back to the upside in the months or years ahead. Shorts are getting squeezed. There were plenty of signs in June that the markets needed to rally back up, no matter how bearish the long-term outlook. Many shorts missed these signs or fell victim to smart money misleading them. (Recall that right before the June low, Jamie Dimon warned that a hurricane was coming. Although this is actually true, his timing was likely not coincidental. Smart money loves to trap shorts right at the bottom and make fear-inciting statements when fear is already extreme. Basically, it's squeezing every penny out of uninformed market participants. Sadly, right at the January high Jamie Dimon said the opposite: Recall that in January 2022 he said that he sees the strongest growth in a decade . Again, trying to trap longs at the very top to squeeze every penny out of them. Never trust statements from anyone, unless they can back it up with a chart!). So we have been seeing shorts getting squeezed since June and this short squeeze has propelled the stock market higher at an unnatural and unwarranted rate. Technical reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias include: The weekly stochastic RSI is over-extended to the upside and ready to oscillate back down. While it's possible that price can continue higher or consolidate, despite a declining stochastic RSI, the risk-to-reward does not support rushing into long positions at this point in time. The weekly candle is still within the Ichimoku Cloud which can act as resistance. See chart below Other reasons that I remain neutral with a bearish bias: From late August through mid- to late-October stock market returns have historically remained muted or have declined. While some can argue that the VIX has broken down its trend line, I remain cautious whenever the VIX and the VVIX are so suppressed to the downside going in the August to October timeframe. This is typically a volatile part of the year. Few people noticed that last week, the weekly RSI of the VIX was the lowest in nearly a decade. This does not make any sense. Being a gauge of fear, I find it hard to believe that the fear among market participants last week was the lowest in nearly a decade (from a weekly RSI perspective). I believe that the VIX has been artificially low lately, and although I can only speculate why, I know one thing for certain: the risk-to-reward does not support entering a whole bunch of long positions at this time. Do not get caught up in the FOMO. The FED is only now just beginning to accelerate the roll-off of assets from its balance sheet. It's hard to imagine this action facilitating a bull run that breezes past new all-time highs. The value of the FED's assets is equal to a very sizable percentage of the total stock market capitalization. Rolling these assets off its balance sheet will de-leverage risk assets. Market participants buying into a rally as the Fed accelerates balance sheet roll-off is essentially fighting the Fed in my opinion. The Fed has only rolled off about 1% of its balance and we had one of the worst first 6 months of the year in stock market history. Finally, as noted above the yield curve has inverted. This means we are in a late-cycle rally. So if I am to add any longs, it will be in sectors that do well in the late cycle: Utilities, Telecom, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples. With that said, I will play very defensively and use fairly tight stops since many risk assets are still historically overvalued and overbought. I will look for strong bullish setups in only these sectors. I also see U.S. Treasuries as attractive if the Eurodollar Futures and the terminal rate remains steady, and assuming the Fed does not get crazy with its balance sheet roll-off. In summary, virtually all of the charts I have seen show that there will likely be a significant recession in the coming year(s). Be skeptical of strong rallies while the yield curve is inverted. Trade safe, never trade on emotion, and have a plan before you enter into a trade. Good luck with your trading!
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
47
SPX S&P500 The Bigger PictureThe FED Meeting on September 20-21 is expected to deliver 75bps hike. The decision will be announced on September 21. Some key data to consider: The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second straight month to 8.3% in August of 2022, from 8.5% in July, but above market forecasts of 8.1%. Inflation rose for food (11.4%, the most since 1979), shelter (6.2%, the most since 1984), and used cars and trucks (7.8%). Core CPI increased 6.3% on a year, the most since March, and up markedly from 5.9% hit in both June and July. So there is a change to see even an 100bps hike next week! Under those circumstances, the economic hurricane coming our way that Jamie Dimon was preaching, could become reality: If we look at the S&P chart, we can easily presume a retracement to the $3714 support line, followed by, worst case scenario, a drop to $3100 if we are going to see more earnings revisions, like FDX did this week. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SP:SPXShort
by TopgOptions
4
SPX weekly end updateHi everyone, This one will be quick Its a weekly closing and I got both daily and weekly Major support at 3721-22SPX on closing level. - S2 is at 3709 - 100% extension off Aug 16 and Sep 12th highs is at 3680SPX We have Powell speaking at 2pm Eastern My trading plan for tomorrow: - currently short, both ES and NQ (ES entered at 3769.50, stop 10 points) - exit ES at 3936 - looking for a low before Powell, ideally in first couple of hours of the trading day - 3721-3709SPX and possible extension (less odds) 3680SPX (has a perfect 1.618 fib for the ES extension lower) - will buy lotto calls if we see second number - exit at the EOD ideally at 3770 level I will be entering with some lotto Monday puts if we get EOD rally and fail before the close Most important number is 3721SPX tomorrow! Closing below will bring 3660 and 3636SPX next week if not lower! There is a potential crash scenario on Monday if we get the rally into the close and fail to close on the highs. Have a good night!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
23
SPX tested the broken out trendline from the top, pushHere is last chance for the bulls to push into the close, levels to watch are 3802 and 3817 on closing level I have set a buy order at 83 with a tight stop (if it gets there again, will be a good r/r imo) Bull flagging Must close above 3786 at min for any bulls to have hope for another push to 3802-17 at min. My thoughts are either we see 3710-21 tomorrow am and rally into the 27th, or the opposite, we fail again tomorrow at 3817 and go down to 3720 and even 3680-36 by Tuesday
SP:SPX
by RealTima
19
SPX both supports broke down (added ES chart)We got my green open but it didnt really continue, I did few longs, still have one running in case its bottoming here But wont be surprised of bigger down days to come, 27th should mark some sort of a low in turn around Tuesday. I think we hit 3680 at min, be careful on the long side. The price is so weak cant even bounce much, means consolidation for lower levels. 3721 and 3636 are both maj supports to watch! (on closing level) Its a short the rip game till its not As you can see only ES is holding from falling apart
SP:SPX
by RealTima
SPX is at its support trendline off Sep 1st and 6th lowIt was a crazy day, as always after FOMC. Im expecting this move down to reverse completely and more by Fri. - Main resistance is at 4012-15SPX on weekly closing - Daily resistance is at 3802-17, 3850-55, 3895 and 3935 Tomorrows support (if the AHs price wont be reversed by the open) levels: - 3752-50 - 3721 - 3680 I expect 3721SPX holding strong on closing level and wont rule out an overshoot to 3680SPX SPX daily targets 3475-85SPX by Oct 28-31st ES support trendline hit - resistance is at 3825-35 for tonight If we open green or flat, it will be a bullish sign and I will be looking to enter with longs and ride it till at least over today's highs. Otherwise will be looking to buy at 3752 and 3721SPX tomorrow for a good size rally back to 3890-95 or so. No point to over trade this but trade the levels of importance Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
Watch for S1 to hold on closing level!S1 is right at first gap to fill 3831, can act as a very good support. So again, its a day when I will be buying longs, question is from what price. Ideally I buy at 3802-18 level, but might buy at higher price if I see that S1 holding into the close and no new lows. Please note Futs can always extend into AH's session DO NOT GET TRAPPED Today!!! Dont short this red whole today! P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
Next Top Is...Minor wave 1 may have finished today, slight chance of it finishing if a new low occurs shortly after the open tomorrow. For now, Minor wave 1 was 3 days. Wave 2 will likely be similar in length. Historical relationships point to a possible top around 4000. There is not much news until the Fed so we could meander upward for a few days while we wait. I do expect Minor wave 3 to be a very sharp drop in the order of 300+ points over 3-6 days which would be fueled by a larger than expected Fed hike and/or hawkish comments afterward. Minor wave 1 has been eventful so far, we shall see what happens next.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
SPX is very close to my first target outlined for a while nowI missed most of the day, Im waiting for my 4125-35 test to short and exit some longs I have running since last week (those were under the water at some point, now nicely in green) Want to see some pullback into the close and then spike up tomorrow to hit the target zone for a fakeout move. High tomorrow and low on the 16th, then we should rally to 4200 and even 4285-91SPX by or before 21st FOMC meeting 4085 is now support! This chart is from 6th of Sep P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX gapped up, no Fri sell off repeate, main support is at 4025We didnt get a move down off am highs as I was hoping for, gap up above 4020-35 happen, so the move lower is off the table. Now 4025 and 4015 are 2 main supports to hold for next week to continue advance. 4085 is next target. This still can be a fakeout and if we close below am open, and especially below 4015SPX it will be bearish and I will be looking for 3925 to test early next week before push to higher levels. I got stopped on half short from overnight and holding the other half for the fakeout scenario. Will hedge at 4025 and 4015 level (will cut if we close below 4015) So far the pathway up is in play, I dont expect much lower till 4125-35 test and ideally 4200 P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7