SPX tested the broken out trendline from the top, pushHere is last chance for the bulls to push into the close, levels to watch are 3802 and 3817 on closing level
I have set a buy order at 83 with a tight stop (if it gets there again, will be a good r/r imo)
Bull flagging
Must close above 3786 at min for any bulls to have hope for another push to 3802-17 at min.
My thoughts are either we see 3710-21 tomorrow am and rally into the 27th, or the opposite, we fail again tomorrow at 3817 and go down to 3720 and even 3680-36 by Tuesday
Spx500long
SPX both supports broke down (added ES chart)We got my green open but it didnt really continue, I did few longs, still have one running in case its bottoming here
But wont be surprised of bigger down days to come, 27th should mark some sort of a low in turn around Tuesday.
I think we hit 3680 at min, be careful on the long side.
The price is so weak cant even bounce much, means consolidation for lower levels.
3721 and 3636 are both maj supports to watch! (on closing level)
Its a short the rip game till its not
As you can see only ES is holding from falling apart
SPX is at its support trendline off Sep 1st and 6th lowIt was a crazy day, as always after FOMC.
Im expecting this move down to reverse completely and more by Fri.
- Main resistance is at 4012-15SPX on weekly closing
- Daily resistance is at 3802-17, 3850-55, 3895 and 3935
Tomorrows support (if the AHs price wont be reversed by the open) levels:
- 3752-50
- 3721
- 3680
I expect 3721SPX holding strong on closing level and wont rule out an overshoot to 3680SPX
SPX daily targets 3475-85SPX by Oct 28-31st
ES support trendline hit
- resistance is at 3825-35 for tonight
If we open green or flat, it will be a bullish sign and I will be looking to enter with longs and ride it till at least over today's highs.
Otherwise will be looking to buy at 3752 and 3721SPX tomorrow for a good size rally back to 3890-95 or so.
No point to over trade this but trade the levels of importance
Have a good night
Watch for S1 to hold on closing level!S1 is right at first gap to fill 3831, can act as a very good support.
So again, its a day when I will be buying longs, question is from what price.
Ideally I buy at 3802-18 level, but might buy at higher price if I see that S1 holding into the close and no new lows.
Please note
Futs can always extend into AH's session
DO NOT GET TRAPPED Today!!!
Dont short this red whole today!
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S&P500 (ES500) likely to move up ..high riskHey tradomaniacs,
todays morning orderflow looks fishy and we might see a move up due to trapped sellers getting fooled by iceberg-orders.
If aggressive buy-pressure comes up soon and sellers give up against the whales we might see a correction to the upside.
I`ll give it a shot even tho its a very risky trade... let`s see
Next Top Is...Minor wave 1 may have finished today, slight chance of it finishing if a new low occurs shortly after the open tomorrow. For now, Minor wave 1 was 3 days. Wave 2 will likely be similar in length. Historical relationships point to a possible top around 4000.
There is not much news until the Fed so we could meander upward for a few days while we wait. I do expect Minor wave 3 to be a very sharp drop in the order of 300+ points over 3-6 days which would be fueled by a larger than expected Fed hike and/or hawkish comments afterward.
Minor wave 1 has been eventful so far, we shall see what happens next.
SPX is very close to my first target outlined for a while nowI missed most of the day, Im waiting for my 4125-35 test to short and exit some longs I have running since last week (those were under the water at some point, now nicely in green)
Want to see some pullback into the close and then spike up tomorrow to hit the target zone for a fakeout move.
High tomorrow and low on the 16th, then we should rally to 4200 and even 4285-91SPX by or before 21st FOMC meeting
4085 is now support!
This chart is from 6th of Sep
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SPX gapped up, no Fri sell off repeate, main support is at 4025We didnt get a move down off am highs as I was hoping for, gap up above 4020-35 happen, so the move lower is off the table.
Now 4025 and 4015 are 2 main supports to hold for next week to continue advance. 4085 is next target.
This still can be a fakeout and if we close below am open, and especially below 4015SPX it will be bearish and I will be looking for 3925 to test early next week before push to higher levels.
I got stopped on half short from overnight and holding the other half for the fakeout scenario.
Will hedge at 4025 and 4015 level (will cut if we close below 4015)
So far the pathway up is in play, I dont expect much lower till 4125-35 test and ideally 4200
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ICT concepts to enter this buy idea on SPX500.. Have this bias for SPX500.. I think we are gonna have a bullish week to try to target some of the previous buy stops above and get back some liquidity before selling off once more lower.. As of right now bullish until this trade idea gets proved false.
SPX/SPY Fib Retracement Key Levels I've been watching SPX/SPY very closely to see which direction it decides to go through the rest of the year. We are at a VERY IMPORTANT range. Initially the top trend line acted as resistance and short bias looked to be validated with the reject of the 0.681 golden zone. You can see a bounce off the shorter term long bias 0.681 retracement almost perfectly from this years low. Short term long needs to hold 0.618 for us to see retest of highs trend line. This will be the best entry point for short position into the rest of the year as a retest to break out of channel is going to likely reject. Ultimately SHORT bias long term , potentially LONG bias short term .
Short Term PT $420
Long Term PT $334
SPX and NDX made higher lowsDouble bottom here, ideally we go hard up on Tuesday.
Im in with lotto Sep 7th calls as well as some ES longs, short NQ from higher level, keeping as a hedge
Its a panic cycle week as well as a directional change week, so a straight move up is not ruled out
Have a good weekend.
XLP/SPY indicates probability for a move to the upside higherIdea is based on the XLP/SPY chart using the inverted relationship between them. Since we have just made a strong move to the upside in XLP/SPY during the latest bear market, price has extended well above the 50 MA, a retracement towards it is warranted and leads to the SPY moving higher historically. The probability for a move to the upside at least in the short term is therefore higher! If we drop below the 50 MA and close back above it on the weekly chart, that would be an excellent place to short the SPY again! However, if we break below it and continue to the downside, then expect continuation to all time high.
SPX has more room to go when NQ hit all the targetsSPX can stretch all the way down to 3900-10 if it wants to.
Maj support cluster is at 3910-50SPX
Today is the reversal cycle day, so I take what I have.
Main resistance now is 4025, above it, we can fly.
Mid of the channel hit, not shown on the chart
Monthly resistance close is 4156SPX, so must watch on closing level, its tomorrow...
Im long