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Spx500long

SPX Aug 8th updateDidnt do a weekend update, was no point, nothing new since the last updates. NQ hit it's resistance cluster I mentioned before, SPX did as well and even exceeded a bit, but now way below it. Resistance cluster is at 4160-77SPX, where 68 is the maj resistance on closing level Im going to watch 3992 and 3938-40SPX level for the support to hold and a push into EOM after. Some changes on my chart, we did in fact hit one of the channels I had for a while and retraced of it. Now some Elliot Wave slapping from non expert (I find short term EWT counts useless!): - What if the 4 is over and we will star a first move down and 2nd wave up will be beck into the same trendchannel resistance. The fibs align with my main target zone for the wave 3 down as well as the 5th wave landing. That would make it 5 waves down into Sep/Oct low! How big of a slap those EW "analysts" will get after their 5500 call for over then 8 months gets destroyed. I know some will just add another count and be so "right", always "right" I still favor another push into 4300-30 zone, but now see a much more bearish potential. We are not even close to a bottom, the bull market wont be back till 2023 or even 2024, only bear market rallies!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
12
SXP500 Index: Waiting for the peak at 4280 spx 500 Index Analyst on 08/05/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index What's on the market now: Today the index is trading at 4151. And in the last trading week, we saw a sharp upward movement to our target zone of 4125. This is where a small correction caused by profit taking began.. Now the market is developing a steady movement, I expect that its local top will be around 4250 - 4280, however, if there is a sharp increase, the market will reach its maximum peak at the price of 4350. But today, the price of 4250 - 4280 seems to me the most likely. What I'm looking forward to today: There is a positive mood on the market and there is still a positive background for growth. I expect the market to continue its upward movement to the level of 4250 - 4280. My trading recommendations for the index as of 08-05-22. What I recommend: If you want to go short: Short positions are prohibited. However, a good opportunity would be to open short in the area of 4250 - 4280. If you want to buy: You can buy in the market, but limit your losses. However, a good buy price would be 4050. The market may begin a correction caused by profit taking. If you are not in the market: If you want to buy an index, then you can do it at the market, but limit your losses. Short positions are possible from the level of 4250. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the SPX 500 index. See you next time! Goodbye!
SP:SPXLong
by kvatoo_FX
6
SPX500USD - Positioning for 2022The Virus had set the stock cycle quite accurate in the last 2 years. It seems we have 2 intermediate cycle low in a year: 1. one of them is very severe and it comes at the beginning of the year ( highlighted by red arrow) This is also a yearly low and drops close to the previous year's normal ICL 2020.03.23. 2021.03. 05 . 2022. 01 .24. 2. the other one is "just" a normal ICL (highlighted by blue) 2020.09.21. 2021.10.04. 2022.09....? The next "normal " ICL will be due only at the end of summer, most probably in September. So when the ICL is printed you just need start a long position . The chance is high we printed the lows yesterday. Notice the brutal volume we are having at these lows. We had a similar setup in 2018 December. After the reversal candle on the next day we had a pullback where you could enter for the next ICL: Use today's pullback for an entry:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by chartwatchers
14
My last night SPX update with detailed notes belowThis is what was sent to those who are on my email list. I have 2 pathways going into the mid of the month. - 5 waves up, then the 4th wave should be limited to 3930-40 and might even get to 3985-92 only. 3910 MUST hold on any test for this count to be alive. It means next 12-13 days will be less volatile move lower and limited. - Much deeper B wave down to ideal target zone of 3850+- to even 3800-10. This pathway has higher odds as we have volatility rising from the 8th all the way to the 15th. Also tomorrow is picking up as a volatile day, I wont be surprised the first gap of 4091.19 penetrated by tomorrow or Fri am. There is a chance that the second gap of 4072 will be filled as well on this move down. Ideally we see that low Fri am, then end the week with a rally into the close to trap the bulls and gap down on Monday. We didn't see a move lower today, so the gap fill to watch for tomorrow going into Tuesday I have a good resistance cluster for the end of the week from 4158 to 4177SPX. Max stretch I see is 4200 but might not be seen till after the mid month low. Ideal target is 4225 and 4255-60 (depends on the day we make the high) with possible stretch to 4308-30SPX. Failure to close the gap at 4300 will be a huge sign of a much bigger correction ahead. So regardless of the outcome I see lower levels (double bottom if we stretch into the 4308-30 zone) by Oct low. Im only short few ES, those are under the water, I will be adding tomorrow and stay short over the weekend. Expect the market to move and get some volatility from the next week. Looking to be out from short position and flip long mid month and my timing for the low is 16th of Aug. Tomorrow is the directional change day, the price should start moving into Tuesday, up into Thursday and final move lower on the 16th. Main support for the next week is 3992SPX, then 3939SPX Ideally we gap and crap tomorrow into the resistance cluster mentioned above, it might just gap down.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
8
Is the Bull Run Over?Throughout the years following the Great Recession, many market analysts have warned that the bull run was ending. Here's one such article from 2016: www.yahoo.com So naturally, an important question for traders is how to objectively detect whether or not the bull run has ended by using charts. My chart above aims to do that by using statistical tools. The chart uses a log-linear regression channel on the monthly chart of SPY to measure whether or not the bull run is intact. To create this log-linear regression channel, I added the "Linear Regression (Log Scale)" indicator by @Forza . I also added the "Linear Regression Formula" by @alexgrover to better gauge smaller scale trend reversals. I modified the log-linear regression channel settings to include the entire period of the bull run following the Great Recession. More specifically, my look back period is from the bottom of the Great Recession (Count: 162, since it occurred 162 months ago). I kept the standard deviation at 2. A standard deviation of 2 means that this channel is likely to contain 95% of all price action. Here are the ways that I use this log-linear regression channel to determine whether or not the bull run is still intact: If price closes below the lower channel line, the next monthly candle must move back up and, at a minimum, tag the lower channel line. (This shows that buyers are coming in to buy the dip) The linear regression line (the thin oscillating red line) cannot fall below the lower channel line of log-linear regression channel at the time of any monthly close. (If this line falls below the lower channel line it could resist price as it attempts to re-enter the channel, which in turn could signal an end to the trend). Once price closes below the lower channel line, and then recovers to close above the lower channel line, price cannot then close below the channel again without first reaching the mean (red center line of the channel). (See below for illustration) This last rule is important because it signifies that there were not enough buyers who were interested in buying the dip so as to enable price to recover to the mean. If any of these rules fail, then it is a sign of weakness and the bull run that has been in place since the Great Recession may be ending. My chart also shows overthrows, or periods when price thrusts above the 2nd standard deviation from the mean. (See chart below) When the linear regression line crosses above the upper channel of the log-linear regression line that sends a signal that we are near a market top. In November 2021, the monthly SPY candle formed a bearish inverted hammer, which sent an additional signal that we are near the top. These signals are opportunities to become more defensive (e.g sell call options, begin to trail and narrow your stop losses for long position, stop adding new long positions). Some traders may ask: What is the difference between a log-linear regression channel and just drawing a channel using candlesticks closing prices? The answer is that in the case of a log-linear regression channel the channel is derived mathematically from price action using a mean and standard deviations. One benefit of this method over drawing a channel using price action is that you can better detect overthrows and underthrows. This is to say that rather than drawing a wider channel to include all closing prices, a log-linear regression channel draws a narrower channel and signals high-probability buying and selling opportunities when price closes below or above the channel, respectively. Another difference is that a regression channel will not be as skewed by an outlier candlestick. Aside from helping to determine if the bull run is over, this chart can help you decipher whether or not bullish predictions are realistic. For example, there are bulls on Trading View calling for SPY to reach 600 next year, unfortunately, that's unlikely to happen. In fact, based on this log-linear regression channel, the probability of that happening is less than 2.5% because it would require SPY to thrust above the upper channel line (2 standard deviations from the mean) of the log-linear regression channel. (See below for a diagram) In summary, the stock market may seem like a roller coaster that randomly takes drastic swings, but the highs and lows of these swings are quite predictable.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
16
SPX weekend update Im slightly short as of Fri close, not planning to hold for long, looking at other day to get in with swings. Notes from the chart: 4308.5SPX is the main resistances now (must hold for continuation lower) Resistance - 4158.50, 4160.2, 4177.60, 4168.80 (Maj) SPX - Low target for tomorrow 4052, 4027 and Main support 4012SPX - Buy if seen in am, don't buy if we see higher first - 3910 and 3943 are the maj support zone now Buy zone for tomorrow with stops! - 4012, 4027.50SPX - 4000 must hold on any try or it falls apart and will get 50MA tested Short - 4154-60SPX, no short above 4175, going to 4216-25 - Low (intraday) was on Jun 17th; - No current long position, only short Old pathway still can be in play: - rally for a week or 2 back to 4150-4205 SPX (we are here now), retest of 3890SPX or 3830by Mid Aug and then main target of 4330+ and possible 4425+ summer time - Ideally extend to 4425SPX (4300 main resistance on the way up) summer rally target - 110MA After revising my chart, there is a high chance we are in a 5 wave down pathway with 4 being almost over. Larger ABC pathway down into Sep/Oct low as being just an A wave, B wave up to Jan high and C down to Apr low Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Came as a main low and possible 5 wave down is over and we are in a B wave up Additional to add: We did hit 110MA on Fri high and retraced, that target alone can be enough for this move and the price doesn't have to test 200MA in case of a serious bear trend. There are 2 downtrend channels, either of them can be in play, those are visual on my chart. - We have a high volatility going into the 4th Aug - As well as from the 8th of Aug to 15th. I'm expecting at least a temp high on the 1st or the 3rd, if was not hit on Fri . Low mid month and another advance into the week of 29th on neg div . After that expect a huge move down and my targets as of now are 3430 and 3455. There is a Fib fan confluence at the same levels I really don't want to see lower, as if that happens,then we could be in a 5 waves structure into Q1 of 2023 instead of ABC move down.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX updated bear channelI did send this chart during the last trading hour yesterday to those who are on my email list. I have revised the bear channel and it fits much better with the current price action as well as the fibs. Im short here and looking to add if we see a double tap of a bit higher high, otherwise doing only day trading. Its a weekly and monthly closing day today, so must watch numbers are: - 4090.80PX on closing level for weekly continuation or rejection of the price. - 3950.50SPX on closing level for monthly continuation or rejection. If closing below the second number it will be a huge tell of much lower levels to come. Closing above 4090 can bring the 4300 into play earlier then I thought and that would make me change the ABC pathway with Jun 14th being as a B wave. Main supports are: - 4060SPX - 4002-10SPX - 3939SPX - 3890SPX Im mostly off today, will do a weekend update only.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX still trendingHe didnt gap down and gap up today, so no call for the full retracement off yesterday's low into Fri. The next targets are 4075 and 4090SPX I have some good confluence with the 4090SPX and as far it was so far away from a week ago, its getting close to it. Tomorrow is a double directional day, watching for the 4090 to be hit to mark the high. Also getting close to the monthly closing, tomorrow, also a weekly closing. So a lot of volatility is expected, might do some lotto options. - Weekly closing resistance level is right at my second target - 4090.80SPX. Closing above will be bullish going into the next week. - Monthly closing resistance is lower and it's at 3950.50, closing above will be bullish going into the month of Aug. that would support my view on higher low mid Aug. So tomorrow is a very important day, if we do sell off hard and close below 3950SPX, then it could bring lower lows into mid of Aug. If we do close above 4090, then I would redo my ABC move off the lows with B being in place on 14th of July. Then 4225 becomes the target
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
SPX quick updateIm in transition for next 16 hours plus, wont be able to post or trade the open. Im seeing a small H&S pattern forming on smaller time frame. Should stay below or around 4k top for it to hold and then trigger. Looking for a low either on the 25th or 28th. Ideally we top tomorrow as time window suggests we will, or low tomorrow and high by Wednesday. Im expecting a good size decline to start soon, should last into 1-4th of Aug at min, bounce and final low 13-15th of Aug. From where we should rally super strong (Mar like) into the EOM or first days of Sep. There is something serious is about to happen early or mid Sep, so if we do see 4300+ Im going to stay fully naked with ZERO longs!!! Again I do think we have much lower to go, but the short term pain is on the upside. Will update those who are on my email list from the airport, few things to add there. Have a great rest of your weekend!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPx is on the pathway for high on the 25th.Nothing changed since my last update, we dont get much in declines, so the pressure is up. My timing for the high is 25th, ideally we gap and start the move down hard. 3880SPX is the main support now. If we get down to 3950 I will get my longs back on for a trip to 4030-40 and even 4075-90. There is a solid yellow trendline goes from 2009 lows and goes all the way up into yesterday's close. I do expect it to be penetrated a bit with the C wave up, but acting as a strong resistance on bigger time frame. There is a yellow dotted line, its coming off Feb 2020 Feb high. Those 2 are most important bear/bull resistances to watch Its a weekly closing. Weekly resistance is at 4090, very important to have a close below it for my pathway drawn on the chart I expect a monthly close below 3950 level Volatility is set to rise from Monday and lasting into the 4th
SP:SPX
by RealTima
10
Last night updateCopy pasting of what I sent last night to those who are on my email list: It seems the market is going to test 3965-80 zone after all. I was expecting it first part of July but it took time. So some "wave slapping": - My target is 4030, it can top at 4013-18 but it doesn't really matter - A wave (around 25-26th of Jul) - Down to higher lows into 37xx zone (with possible overshoot into 36xx zone), where 3696-75 fits better - B wave (around 15th of Aug) - C wave up into 4330 and the 200MA should be around that number when we should approach it, perfect fit for the count (late Aug, early Sep) So the whole move should look like the move from Feb and Mar lows. Volatility is set to rise from the 25th into early Aug We have only 1 gap to close and 5 below, I think all will get filled SPX gaps to close: - 4017.81 - 3830.81 - 3800.91 - 3790.14 - 3674.85 Weekly resistance level is at 4090SPX Monthly resistance level is 3950.50SPX I do expect to close the month below the last number, closing above could shif the bearish outlook on longer term view. So far I do think we will hit 32 handle at min with ideal erase the whole move of 2020 low and even retesting those lows. That would be the most bearish scenario and could last into 2024 instead of Q1 2023 as Im expecting now. The level of importance tomorrow is - 3918 and 3911 on closing level. Below 3880 is the most important number, below it we should fall back into high 3700 territory. So I expect this move to turn tomorrow and have 2 days correction and one more push into the 25-26th to finish up this move and fall into Aug 15th (or so) low. Then we should get a non stop rally Mar like back to the 4300 handle.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16