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Spx500long

SPX500USD - Positioning for 2022The Virus had set the stock cycle quite accurate in the last 2 years. It seems we have 2 intermediate cycle low in a year: 1. one of them is very severe and it comes at the beginning of the year ( highlighted by red arrow) This is also a yearly low and drops close to the previous year's normal ICL 2020.03.23. 2021.03. 05 . 2022. 01 .24. 2. the other one is "just" a normal ICL (highlighted by blue) 2020.09.21. 2021.10.04. 2022.09....? The next "normal " ICL will be due only at the end of summer, most probably in September. So when the ICL is printed you just need start a long position . The chance is high we printed the lows yesterday. Notice the brutal volume we are having at these lows. We had a similar setup in 2018 December. After the reversal candle on the next day we had a pullback where you could enter for the next ICL: Use today's pullback for an entry:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by chartwatchers
14
My last night SPX update with detailed notes belowThis is what was sent to those who are on my email list. I have 2 pathways going into the mid of the month. - 5 waves up, then the 4th wave should be limited to 3930-40 and might even get to 3985-92 only. 3910 MUST hold on any test for this count to be alive. It means next 12-13 days will be less volatile move lower and limited. - Much deeper B wave down to ideal target zone of 3850+- to even 3800-10. This pathway has higher odds as we have volatility rising from the 8th all the way to the 15th. Also tomorrow is picking up as a volatile day, I wont be surprised the first gap of 4091.19 penetrated by tomorrow or Fri am. There is a chance that the second gap of 4072 will be filled as well on this move down. Ideally we see that low Fri am, then end the week with a rally into the close to trap the bulls and gap down on Monday. We didn't see a move lower today, so the gap fill to watch for tomorrow going into Tuesday I have a good resistance cluster for the end of the week from 4158 to 4177SPX. Max stretch I see is 4200 but might not be seen till after the mid month low. Ideal target is 4225 and 4255-60 (depends on the day we make the high) with possible stretch to 4308-30SPX. Failure to close the gap at 4300 will be a huge sign of a much bigger correction ahead. So regardless of the outcome I see lower levels (double bottom if we stretch into the 4308-30 zone) by Oct low. Im only short few ES, those are under the water, I will be adding tomorrow and stay short over the weekend. Expect the market to move and get some volatility from the next week. Looking to be out from short position and flip long mid month and my timing for the low is 16th of Aug. Tomorrow is the directional change day, the price should start moving into Tuesday, up into Thursday and final move lower on the 16th. Main support for the next week is 3992SPX, then 3939SPX Ideally we gap and crap tomorrow into the resistance cluster mentioned above, it might just gap down.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
8
Is the Bull Run Over?Throughout the years following the Great Recession, many market analysts have warned that the bull run was ending. Here's one such article from 2016: www.yahoo.com So naturally, an important question for traders is how to objectively detect whether or not the bull run has ended by using charts. My chart above aims to do that by using statistical tools. The chart uses a log-linear regression channel on the monthly chart of SPY to measure whether or not the bull run is intact. To create this log-linear regression channel, I added the "Linear Regression (Log Scale)" indicator by @Forza . I also added the "Linear Regression Formula" by @alexgrover to better gauge smaller scale trend reversals. I modified the log-linear regression channel settings to include the entire period of the bull run following the Great Recession. More specifically, my look back period is from the bottom of the Great Recession (Count: 162, since it occurred 162 months ago). I kept the standard deviation at 2. A standard deviation of 2 means that this channel is likely to contain 95% of all price action. Here are the ways that I use this log-linear regression channel to determine whether or not the bull run is still intact: If price closes below the lower channel line, the next monthly candle must move back up and, at a minimum, tag the lower channel line. (This shows that buyers are coming in to buy the dip) The linear regression line (the thin oscillating red line) cannot fall below the lower channel line of log-linear regression channel at the time of any monthly close. (If this line falls below the lower channel line it could resist price as it attempts to re-enter the channel, which in turn could signal an end to the trend). Once price closes below the lower channel line, and then recovers to close above the lower channel line, price cannot then close below the channel again without first reaching the mean (red center line of the channel). (See below for illustration) This last rule is important because it signifies that there were not enough buyers who were interested in buying the dip so as to enable price to recover to the mean. If any of these rules fail, then it is a sign of weakness and the bull run that has been in place since the Great Recession may be ending. My chart also shows overthrows, or periods when price thrusts above the 2nd standard deviation from the mean. (See chart below) When the linear regression line crosses above the upper channel of the log-linear regression line that sends a signal that we are near a market top. In November 2021, the monthly SPY candle formed a bearish inverted hammer, which sent an additional signal that we are near the top. These signals are opportunities to become more defensive (e.g sell call options, begin to trail and narrow your stop losses for long position, stop adding new long positions). Some traders may ask: What is the difference between a log-linear regression channel and just drawing a channel using candlesticks closing prices? The answer is that in the case of a log-linear regression channel the channel is derived mathematically from price action using a mean and standard deviations. One benefit of this method over drawing a channel using price action is that you can better detect overthrows and underthrows. This is to say that rather than drawing a wider channel to include all closing prices, a log-linear regression channel draws a narrower channel and signals high-probability buying and selling opportunities when price closes below or above the channel, respectively. Another difference is that a regression channel will not be as skewed by an outlier candlestick. Aside from helping to determine if the bull run is over, this chart can help you decipher whether or not bullish predictions are realistic. For example, there are bulls on Trading View calling for SPY to reach 600 next year, unfortunately, that's unlikely to happen. In fact, based on this log-linear regression channel, the probability of that happening is less than 2.5% because it would require SPY to thrust above the upper channel line (2 standard deviations from the mean) of the log-linear regression channel. (See below for a diagram) In summary, the stock market may seem like a roller coaster that randomly takes drastic swings, but the highs and lows of these swings are quite predictable.
AMEX:SPY
by SpyMasterTrades
16
SPX weekend update Im slightly short as of Fri close, not planning to hold for long, looking at other day to get in with swings. Notes from the chart: 4308.5SPX is the main resistances now (must hold for continuation lower) Resistance - 4158.50, 4160.2, 4177.60, 4168.80 (Maj) SPX - Low target for tomorrow 4052, 4027 and Main support 4012SPX - Buy if seen in am, don't buy if we see higher first - 3910 and 3943 are the maj support zone now Buy zone for tomorrow with stops! - 4012, 4027.50SPX - 4000 must hold on any try or it falls apart and will get 50MA tested Short - 4154-60SPX, no short above 4175, going to 4216-25 - Low (intraday) was on Jun 17th; - No current long position, only short Old pathway still can be in play: - rally for a week or 2 back to 4150-4205 SPX (we are here now), retest of 3890SPX or 3830by Mid Aug and then main target of 4330+ and possible 4425+ summer time - Ideally extend to 4425SPX (4300 main resistance on the way up) summer rally target - 110MA After revising my chart, there is a high chance we are in a 5 wave down pathway with 4 being almost over. Larger ABC pathway down into Sep/Oct low as being just an A wave, B wave up to Jan high and C down to Apr low Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Came as a main low and possible 5 wave down is over and we are in a B wave up Additional to add: We did hit 110MA on Fri high and retraced, that target alone can be enough for this move and the price doesn't have to test 200MA in case of a serious bear trend. There are 2 downtrend channels, either of them can be in play, those are visual on my chart. - We have a high volatility going into the 4th Aug - As well as from the 8th of Aug to 15th. I'm expecting at least a temp high on the 1st or the 3rd, if was not hit on Fri . Low mid month and another advance into the week of 29th on neg div . After that expect a huge move down and my targets as of now are 3430 and 3455. There is a Fib fan confluence at the same levels I really don't want to see lower, as if that happens,then we could be in a 5 waves structure into Q1 of 2023 instead of ABC move down.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
SPX updated bear channelI did send this chart during the last trading hour yesterday to those who are on my email list. I have revised the bear channel and it fits much better with the current price action as well as the fibs. Im short here and looking to add if we see a double tap of a bit higher high, otherwise doing only day trading. Its a weekly and monthly closing day today, so must watch numbers are: - 4090.80PX on closing level for weekly continuation or rejection of the price. - 3950.50SPX on closing level for monthly continuation or rejection. If closing below the second number it will be a huge tell of much lower levels to come. Closing above 4090 can bring the 4300 into play earlier then I thought and that would make me change the ABC pathway with Jun 14th being as a B wave. Main supports are: - 4060SPX - 4002-10SPX - 3939SPX - 3890SPX Im mostly off today, will do a weekend update only.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX still trendingHe didnt gap down and gap up today, so no call for the full retracement off yesterday's low into Fri. The next targets are 4075 and 4090SPX I have some good confluence with the 4090SPX and as far it was so far away from a week ago, its getting close to it. Tomorrow is a double directional day, watching for the 4090 to be hit to mark the high. Also getting close to the monthly closing, tomorrow, also a weekly closing. So a lot of volatility is expected, might do some lotto options. - Weekly closing resistance level is right at my second target - 4090.80SPX. Closing above will be bullish going into the next week. - Monthly closing resistance is lower and it's at 3950.50, closing above will be bullish going into the month of Aug. that would support my view on higher low mid Aug. So tomorrow is a very important day, if we do sell off hard and close below 3950SPX, then it could bring lower lows into mid of Aug. If we do close above 4090, then I would redo my ABC move off the lows with B being in place on 14th of July. Then 4225 becomes the target
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
SPX quick updateIm in transition for next 16 hours plus, wont be able to post or trade the open. Im seeing a small H&S pattern forming on smaller time frame. Should stay below or around 4k top for it to hold and then trigger. Looking for a low either on the 25th or 28th. Ideally we top tomorrow as time window suggests we will, or low tomorrow and high by Wednesday. Im expecting a good size decline to start soon, should last into 1-4th of Aug at min, bounce and final low 13-15th of Aug. From where we should rally super strong (Mar like) into the EOM or first days of Sep. There is something serious is about to happen early or mid Sep, so if we do see 4300+ Im going to stay fully naked with ZERO longs!!! Again I do think we have much lower to go, but the short term pain is on the upside. Will update those who are on my email list from the airport, few things to add there. Have a great rest of your weekend!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPx is on the pathway for high on the 25th.Nothing changed since my last update, we dont get much in declines, so the pressure is up. My timing for the high is 25th, ideally we gap and start the move down hard. 3880SPX is the main support now. If we get down to 3950 I will get my longs back on for a trip to 4030-40 and even 4075-90. There is a solid yellow trendline goes from 2009 lows and goes all the way up into yesterday's close. I do expect it to be penetrated a bit with the C wave up, but acting as a strong resistance on bigger time frame. There is a yellow dotted line, its coming off Feb 2020 Feb high. Those 2 are most important bear/bull resistances to watch Its a weekly closing. Weekly resistance is at 4090, very important to have a close below it for my pathway drawn on the chart I expect a monthly close below 3950 level Volatility is set to rise from Monday and lasting into the 4th
SP:SPX
by RealTima
10
Last night updateCopy pasting of what I sent last night to those who are on my email list: It seems the market is going to test 3965-80 zone after all. I was expecting it first part of July but it took time. So some "wave slapping": - My target is 4030, it can top at 4013-18 but it doesn't really matter - A wave (around 25-26th of Jul) - Down to higher lows into 37xx zone (with possible overshoot into 36xx zone), where 3696-75 fits better - B wave (around 15th of Aug) - C wave up into 4330 and the 200MA should be around that number when we should approach it, perfect fit for the count (late Aug, early Sep) So the whole move should look like the move from Feb and Mar lows. Volatility is set to rise from the 25th into early Aug We have only 1 gap to close and 5 below, I think all will get filled SPX gaps to close: - 4017.81 - 3830.81 - 3800.91 - 3790.14 - 3674.85 Weekly resistance level is at 4090SPX Monthly resistance level is 3950.50SPX I do expect to close the month below the last number, closing above could shif the bearish outlook on longer term view. So far I do think we will hit 32 handle at min with ideal erase the whole move of 2020 low and even retesting those lows. That would be the most bearish scenario and could last into 2024 instead of Q1 2023 as Im expecting now. The level of importance tomorrow is - 3918 and 3911 on closing level. Below 3880 is the most important number, below it we should fall back into high 3700 territory. So I expect this move to turn tomorrow and have 2 days correction and one more push into the 25-26th to finish up this move and fall into Aug 15th (or so) low. Then we should get a non stop rally Mar like back to the 4300 handle.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
SPX 500 index analytics: Growth potential to 4100 remains. Analyst of the spx 500 index on 07/19/22 Today we are here to talk about the SPX 500 index What's on the market now: The index is trading at 3830. The market has been in a sideways correction for the last 2 weeks, but I think this stabilization will end in the near future. In the last trading session, we saw a small correction of the last growth, which began on July 14th. I believe that the current correction will not be long and the upward movement will continue in the near future. What I'm waiting for: I maintain a positive view of the market and expect it to move towards the level of 4100. At the same time, my trading recommendations remain unchanged. What I recommend: If you want to go short: Short positions are prohibited. If you want to buy: Market buys are possible, but limit your losses. If you are not in the market: If you want to buy, you can buy from the market, but limit your losses. The market is developing a steady upward movement, which I spoke about earlier. However, as we can see, not all market participants support the uptrend. But in the coming days it will be decided. Like and subscribe, thanks! Also remember to contact me in 2 or 3 days for further trading advice. Don't forget to like it, it really motivates me to share my market knowledge. Subscribe to me and you will always be aware of the movement of the SPX 500 index. See you next time! Bye!
SP:SPXLong
by kvatoo_FX
7
Market Analysis - SPY PerformanceIn this post, I will attempt to analyze where the market currently stands, and present both a strong bull case and a strong bear case. Bull case: First, the chart: The chart above shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a 4h timeframe. The yellow and orange lines are exponential moving averages that represent the MA Exp Ribbon. As noted in a prior post, the MA Exp Ribbon acts as resistance when price hits it from below. In order to pierce through the ribbon, and make a bullish breakout, a candle must do so on high volume and with strong momentum. On the bottom is the Stochastic RSI oscillator, which helps measure momentum. For the first time, in a long time, the 4h chart of SPY has seen price near the top of MA Exp Ribbon with strong momentum building to push through it. It is quite likely that the price will break through. Second, the VIX: As the chart below shows, the VIX has broken down from the trend that it held during its most volatile period over the second quarter. Just be cautious and patient because the VIX has not yet broken below its weekly MA Exp Ribbon. Third, the Advance-Decline Line (ADL): The advance-decline line has broken out and is absolutely soaring. This is possibly one of the most bullish-looking charts out there. The advance-decline line is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The advance-decline line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes, and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs. Right now there is a strong bullish divergence and the major indices have yet to break out. Seasonality: The current period (mid- to late-July) is typically bullish from a seasonality perspective: charts.equityclock.com . Indeed, there was a bull run during this period even in 2008 during the Great Recession. Bear case: (Warning this part is scary - but remember never to invest or trade based on emotion) Yield curve inversion: The 10-year minus the 2-year Treasury yield is used to detect an impending recession. When the 2-year yield rises above the 10-year yield that creates a yield curve inversion, which can often indicate that a recession is coming. In essence, it creates the presumption that shorter-term yields are higher than longer-term yields because we're in the late phase of an economic cycle when the economy is overheating, and that soon, the economy will slow down. Right now the yield curve inversion is very steep. In fact, just last week, the yield curve inversion actually steepened to a level that was even worse than what we saw before the Great Recession. Perhaps even more alarming is the extremely odd fact that the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury is NOT indicating a recession. The federal reserve uses the 10-year minus the 3-month as a more reliable indicator for detecting an impending recession than the 10-year minus the 2-year. Right now that indicator is only showing a 6% chance of a recession in the year ahead: www.newyorkfed.org However, there's a major problem that throws into question the reliability of that indicator at the current time, and that problem is: The Rate of Change in the 10-year yield is off the charts. Look at the 10-year yield Rate of Change on a 3-month basis: There's no way the 3-month yield could possibly invert relative the 10-year yield when the latter's rate of change is off-the-charts, unless the former's rate of change was even more off-the-charts (as we see with the 2-year, which is why the 2-year was able to invert against the 10-year). Here's the 2-year yield rate of change: Therefore, the 10-year minus the 3-month may be showing no inversion, not because the chance of a recession is actually low, but more likely because the indicator itself is no longer working because the rate of change in the 10-year yield is so parabolic. The 10-year minus 3-month indicator only reliably works if the assumption that the 10-year yield rate of change will be relatively stable compared to the 3-month yield rate of change holds true. In the current environment, that assumption does not hold true. We've never seen this kind of rate of change in the 10-year yield during the period for which this indicator has been used to predict recessions. The 3-month yield would have inverted against the 10-year yield months ago, if the 10-year yield had remained relatively stable as it has during the past several decades. However, the 3-month yield cannot invert against something moving so fast to the upside. This is just simple math. This is extremely worrisome because many people are using this tool as a reason to believe that no recession will occur, when in fact, the tool has likely broken. In the scientific community, we know that a tool only works if its validity and reliability can be established. Validity refers to the extent to which the tool actually measures what it is being used to measure, and reliability refers to the extent to which the tool consistently makes accurate measurements. In this case, the reliability of the 10Y-3M tool has broken down because the assumption that the 10-year yield would always be more stable relative to the 3-month yield is not true this time around. This time is indeed different... So I leave you with these strong bull and strong bear considerations, and it is for you to determine how you want to play the market. Remember the rules of good trading!
AMEX:SPYLong
by SpyMasterTrades
11