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Spx500long

S&P 500: Clarity Delivered and Potential Bright Drive AheadThe S&P 500 begins today’s trading on the cusp of all-time highs and speculators cannot be faulted for anticipating the day ahead with excitement. Yesterday’s FOMC statement from the US Federal Reserve delivered clarity for financial institutions, and perhaps more importantly, met expectations. This propelled equity indices higher and the major US stock markets rocketed higher in unison. The notion that the S&P 500 could break new records is actually not a major headline event; it is where the index could finish this week of trading that may prove to be breathtaking. The trend higher in the S&P 500 is evident, and even contrarian speculators who believe the end of the bull market will end sooner rather than later must be feeling nervous at this time. Resistance levels continue to look vulnerable and targets above continue to look attractive. Yes, the index is certainly capable of producing a move lower, so it is important to have realistic expectations. Conservative amounts of leverage must be used to protect against movements which are unexpected. However, technically the bullish momentum remains alluring, and the potentially correct wager. Early future calls for the US markets appear to be optimistic and there is reason to suspect record values will be seen early today and junctures like the 4755.0 to 4765.0 marks will be seen relatively soon. Traders who are looking to buy the S&P 500 on slight dips in the market may find that they are being a bit too conservative today. Perhaps a better cautious approach to the index may be to become a buyer when resistance levels are penetrated; this means placing a buy order above the current market conditions and anticipating that a major juncture proving vulnerable could spur on additional speculative fury to the upside. If a trader wants to sell the S&P 500 today on the notion they can find a profitable reversal downward for a quick hitting result, this to prove all of the optimists wrong, good luck, but it may feel like spitting into the wind. The trend of the S&P 500 has been upward and yesterday’s interest rate report from the Federal Reserve may prove to be a catalyst for the major indices heading into the holiday season. Traders at financial institutions like nothing more than achieving highs as Christmas and the New Year approach, and they may achieve their aims handily. The potential for the S&P 500 to be near the 4800.0 juncture near term looks like a legitimate goal for those looking ahead. S&P 500 Short-Term Outlook Current Resistance: 4751.0 Current Support: 4727.0 High Target: 4785.0 Low Target: 4713.0
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SmoothJB
ES1! - 4HR - Santa and His (REIN?)Bulls! - LONGSANATA AND HIS REINBULLS ARE COMING TO TOWN!! (doesn't feel catchy, but it fits.. I guess?) Next weeks(possibly even months) outlook is looking pretty dang clear.. The bulls are in full force!! -Shorts squeezed out -Good Ol' Cup n Handle formation -Break through the 50D,20D, moving averages, bounced back with 100% recover. -Heavy long volume accumulated in the Value Zone( Volume Profile - Point of Control) Excluding the recent drop, there's been 4 weeks of balance between November and December between 4650-7010 price area. With that being said, I believe there's still long-term holders that accumulated in the Nov5-24th + the 3 day balance between Dec8th,Dec 10th. There's a ton of bulls in the game right now!! With the recent drop and recover, it's apparent the bears couldn't shake the bulls and the longs are back in FULL FORCE. An explosive move up has been bottling for sometime now and it's ready to POP! The coming weeks should be pretty straight forward, its clearer than ever that this market is going up.. Looking to end the year strong, I'll be entering with heavy conviction and heavy options futures contracts this month. Here's a look at a trade im entering coming into Monday: Enter at pullback: 4687(Value Zone + .382 Fib Correction from last leg up on 30m chart) Targets: 4800(Long Term TL,) 4874(1:1 Fib Ext) Stop: 4681(Break below value zone + violation of the baby cup n handle formation and likelihood of further chop n balance) This could top my chart for one of my best trades if it plays out. I may or may not get the desired entry at the pullback as it's definitely likely we could see a gap up Sunday/Monday. I'll take the entry at the break of balance either way and adjust my stops. A little helpful link to check the historical average gains/losses of specific months, take a look at December: 53 up years; 18 down years; ave. return = 1.39%. Here's the link: www.moneychimp.com 30m chart:
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by GeneticHustle
2
S&P 500 Forecast: Index Pulls Back From 4700 Yet AgainThe S&P 500 has pulled back during the trading session on Thursday to show signs of weakness at the 4700 level yet again. This hesitation is something that we have seen more than once, therefore it suggests that it is going to take a significant amount of momentum to finally break out to the upside. The 50 day EMA underneath sits just below the 4600 level, which is an area that has been noisy here recently as well. That being said, I think the market is probably going to continue to see a lot of volatility as we head towards the end of the year, but I do believe that the “Santa Claus rally” is still going to be the big story. On a pullback, I will be looking at this market for signs of strength and a bounce, therefore I will get long again. I have no interest in shorting this market, we are far too strong and although the last couple of days have been a bit difficult to deal with, we are only down about 0.2% or so from the all-time highs. This is hardly a market that is falling apart, so I think it is only a matter of time before we see value hunters taking control of this market yet again. I think at this point in time it is difficult to get overly aggressive one way or the other, but if we get a significant selling move, then I will be looking to “leg into the position.” I will add slowly and wait for opportunities on signs of recovery to get involved in a market that is obviously heading in one direction over the longer term. I believe that the 4500 level is going to be a bit of a floor in the market, and therefore I think we continue to see plenty of money managers out there willing to pick up value due to the fact that they are chasing those returns. If we were to break down below the uptrend line, then we could go looking towards the 200 day EMA, but it is very unlikely that we will see that happen. If we do, then it could be due to a lack of liquidity as we head towards the holidays. That being said, this is a market that retains its overall shape.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SmoothJB
Inverse H&S (bottom) on the 1hr SPYHello Traders, This is a follow up on my last post. Some traders have never heard of the term Head & Shoulders Bottom, it's a small technicality, so I will be more clear. Looks like we have confirmation. So we could have some throwback, but ultimately the direction is up. You may see more shorts jump in angrily, but that's how it is. Unfortunately, there are always people on the right side of the trade and the wrong side. Also, with throwback and only 71% of meeting that 2nd (longer target) it doesn't make things so cut and dry; however, December is typically a smooth riding month, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a bit of a melt up. The odds are very much in the Longs favor here. Lastly, please note, there is also a Double Bottom (Adam & Eve DB). Confirmation was at around 459.05. I wish you all the best! Cheers, Mike
AMEX:SPYLong
by UPRIGHTTrading
1
S&P 500 Forecast: Index Wipes Out Most of Wednesday LossesThe S&P 500 has rallied significantly during the course of trading on Thursday to wipe out the losses from the Wednesday session. We managed to close above the 50 day EMA, as it looks like markets are ready to continue to go to the upside for a longer-term move. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see plenty of interest, as we have seen so much in the way of bullish behavior over the last several months. Yes, the market has negative for a while, but that has been the most recent behavior, and at this point in time it is but a blip on the radar of the longer-term trend. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see buyers looking for value, especially as the end of the year approaches, and people will be looking to reach some type of benchmark for their clients. Because of this, we have the so-called “Santa Claus rally” that typically happens at the end of every year, and I do not see this year being any different. Because of this, I think what we have is a scenario where every dip will be bought into, and we will eventually go looking towards the 4800 level. The market is currently hanging around the 50 day EMA, so that will attract a lot of trading, but at the end of the day the most important thing to pay attention to here is the fact that the jobs number is coming out on Friday, and it will almost certainly cause a significant amount of volatility. The market selling off quite drastically on Friday will almost certainly be bought back into, which is typically the case with the Non-Farm Payroll Friday situation. This is because liquidity disappears, and people will find some type of narrative to start buying the dips. That is what Wall Street does, it finds reasons to go higher. Furthermore, even though the Federal Reserve is pretending like it is worried about inflation, the reality is that the first time Wall Street throws a serious tantrum, they will step in and save the banks. Because of this, it is not really a market so much as it is a bidding war to see who can push things higher over the longer term.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SmoothJB
3
SPX500USDThe S&P 500 has been very quiet during most of the month of November, but we are starting to approach the holidays. The month of December is typically a good one for the markets, and the fact that we have been grinding sideways heading into it is a good sign. After all, we will have the “Santa Claus rally”, which is when money managers try to catch up on potential gains or losses that have been accrued. After all, they have a benchmark that they have to work with, so if they do not reach, for example, the gains at the S&P 500, they need to find something out there to profit from in order to show their clients a reason to continue to invest. Because of this, a lot of traders will chase this trade, because they know so many of their peers need to do so as well. From a technical analysis standpoint, this is a market that has clearly been in a nice uptrend, and I think any pullback at this point will be thought of more or less as a gift. You can see I have drawn a trendline on the weekly chart, and I think that trendline will be respected. The 4500 level is also psychologically important, but when you look at the daily chart, the 4600 level has a significant amount of support built in as well. I think somewhere in that general range there will be plenty of buyers. This is assuming that we can even pull back like that. There will be the occasional pullback during the month of December, but those will be bought into. I do not think that this market is one that you need to be overly reckless with, but clearly you are going to make much more in the way of gains if you are to follow the overall momentum that has been higher for several years now. As long as central banks around the world continue to pump the markets with liquidity, people will find one way or another to get a gain that beats inflation. The easiest way by far is going to be buying stock indices, especially in what has been one of the best-performing economies in the world.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SmoothJB
2
S&P 500 Forecast: Index Looks Bullish OverallThe S&P 500 has pulled back a bit during the course of the trading session on Thursday to show signs of weakness but found enough support at 4665 to turn things around and show signs of strength again. This market is likely to continue to go much higher, as we are broken above the bullish flag that recently had formed. The measured move suggests that we could go to the 5000 handle, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. All things been equal, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of buyers as we have a major “Santa Claus” rally just waiting to happen. The “Santa Claus rally” of course is a well-known phenomenon at the end of the year as the fund managers out there that have not kept up with the markets will have to buy every dip in order to pad their results for the year. That being the case, the market is likely to continue to see plenty of buyers underneath that could come into the picture and pick up value every time it happens. The 50 day EMA of course is an area that would attract a lot of attention, as it is sitting at roughly 4540. With this being the case, the market is likely to continue to find plenty of people underneath willing to pick this market up. To the upside, the 4800 level would of course be an area that could cause some issue from a psychological standpoint, and we may get a little bit of profit-taking there. We have been getting quite a bit of noisy behavior in general, and therefore it is likely that we will continue to see volatility come into the picture, but one thing I think you cannot do as per usual is to short this market. Perhaps at this point in time you should look at the 4250 level as the absolute “floor the market”, so it is almost impossible to get negative on this market. If we do turn around and see this is a market that starts to selloff, I might be a buyer of puts, but that is as far as I would take it.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SmoothJB
SPX500USDAfter trading below its 100-day moving average just a few weeks ago, the major US stock index has been roaring ahead for the past five weeks, rising in value during this time by about 8%. The end of last week saw the price reach another new all-time high, after having traded above the round number at 4700 for the first time. The weekly candlestick was solidly bullish and closed not far from the top of its price range. This, and the record high, are bullish signs. The S&P 500 Index looks likely to remain a good potential buy.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SmoothJB
SPX500USDAll things been equal, this is a market that has been in a bullish run for quite some time, and I just do not see an opportunity to short it anytime soon. The 50 day EMA underneath should continue to offer plenty of support, as it sits at the $15,135 level. Below there, then the market is likely to see the 14,500 level as the absolute floor in the market, so therefore you simply cannot short this market anytime soon. After all, we are in an uptrend and have been for what seems like a lifetime, and I just do not see how that changes in the near future. Ultimately, if we do break down below the 14,500 level, I might be a buyer of puts but that is as aggressive as I get to the downside in US indices. To the upside, the 16,000 level is the most obvious target but at the end of the day I do not know that it is really that big of a deal to suggest that as it is not that far away from here. In fact, it is a mere 270 points or so. The market will continue to be very volatile, but as we rip through earnings season, the very likely that we will continue to see plenty of buyers out there, as this is a market that favors the upside quite drastically, and therefore I do not think we are looking at a scenario that suggests anything other than a “buy on the dips” type of attitude, which is what we have been the case going back at least 13 years to the Great Financial Crisis. I do believe that ultimately will the NASDAQ 100 will not only at 16,000 above, but it will continue to go even higher than that .
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SmoothJB
1
S&P 500 is back on track.Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ The S&P 500 finished at all-time highs on Monday, as earnings season kicked into high gear in one of the strongest reporting weeks of the quarter, with leading indicators in many industries set to report results. The S&P 500 gained 21.58 points, or 0.47%, to 4,566.48. After a setback and a huge drop that happened 2 weeks ago with the cause being the big problems that happened in China with Evergrande, The S&P is back on track now, and it's breaking new highs each week Possible Scenarios for the market : Scenario 1 : The S&P has been having a great Bullish movement that will probably lead the market price even further soon, we will be seeing the market reaching the first resistance located at 4587.76 where we might have a small setback but most likely the S&P will breakout and continue pushing reaching the 4701.56 level soon. Scenario 2 : After reaching the first resistance at 4587.76 we could be seeing a small pullback that will drive the price down near the support zone located at 4473.96 where the Bulls will try to snap back control over the market and push the price back into Scenario 1. Technical indicators show : 1) The market is above the 5 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish sign) 2) The MACD is above the 0 line indicating a Bullish market with a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line. 3) The ADX is at 22.05 showing that the market is trending with a positive crossover between DI+ and DI-. Weekly Support & Resistance points : support Resistance 1) 4473.96 1) 4587.76 2) 4403.03 2) 4630.63 3) 4360.16 3) 4701.56 Fundamental point of view : U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday held out hope for an agreement on his major spending plans before attending a climate summit in Scotland, while the White House said Democratic negotiators were closing in on a deal. The majority of the 11 major S&P sectors advanced, with energy and consumer discretionary shares the best performing, as energy names received a boost from another rise in oil prices to multiyear highs on tight supply. This week, 165 components of the S&P 500 are expected to post quarterly results, according to Refinitiv data. Analysts expect earnings at S&P 500 companies to grow 34.8% year-on-year for the third quarter. Investors are also assessing how companies are navigating supply-chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and inflationary pressures to sustain growth. Of the 119 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings through Monday morning, 83.2% have topped analysts' expectations. According to Reuters This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
SP:SPXLong
by GabiDahduh